Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240714 : c

And more the Halftime Report starts right now. Good to have you with us on this friday. Our committee at the able today, josh brown, jim lethan that will, Jenny Harrington lets begin the markets. Stocks lower again, wrapping up a turbulent week that has thrown the remainder of the summer in doubt. Its how we came into the week and how were ending it are two different feelings you tell me what to do as we move forward here. Its deja vu. We saw it before well see it again. Heres how it plays out. As we get close to the fed meeting we saw the odds of another cut, they were high to start with the markets get excited about that we could see trump flip flop he put the tweet out, didnt get much play from it because he was asleep, so wait until dude is awake if youre going to smack him between the eyes so i took off a little exposure as soon as the tweet hit markets at all levels, alltime highs, were at high levels, getting nervous, antsy did anything change for you this week . You came in thinking powell has your back and then we leave the week wondering whether he does yep. Now whether we have to factor in the negative impact of tariffs, which have already had a pretty rough impact on business sentiment. I was on Cruise Control until yesterday afternoon. So yes, things did change. And the chances of a correction actually get ratcheted up. Do i think the market will eventually recover i think that way, yes. The employment number was mixed. Top line was strong. When you look at the revisions, when you look at what wage growth is doing. It was sort of, i think, under stated lets put it like that, relative to the market you need the fed to come in again if trump goes this way it comes to trade, trade was in the background we have a freebie until september meeting, but we dont have that anymore. Barry gnash says time to cut risks. You have notes trying to advise people to stay the course. Bank of america says its not the big top, stay bullish but the overshoot. Whether you can get that euphoric move maybe to 4200 on the s p, thats tougher now. How do you see it . Im not sure theres a mathematical way to say that statement that its tougher now is true or false thats why they play the game. I havent seen the analysis that went into that you had two copies with wonderful earnings great fundamental stories. Apple and google they report, both apple is now 8. 5 below its earnings day high and google is now 6 below if you were an investor and you were underweight or out of those stocks and you wished you were in them, you were handed a gift. Two stories i can cite out of 50 different stories. Companies doing great that have got caught up in what happened in the market. These are strong stocks with great charts, fundamentals, getting stronger and you got a discount the cues are up 21 year to date, s p 500 still up, we are less than 3 from an alltime record high. The damage has been contained to the places it should be, reversal in the banks, regionals down 6. 5 from the fed day obviously oil is its own story but the big picture here, s p low volatility stocks take the splvtf that is only down. 75 from its high midweek. Thats nothing its essentially flat. S p high data is down 6 the stocks that should have been hit got hit. To steves point, the Cruise Control thing, a lot of people were on Cruise Control last week, vicks was at 11, and this week it got to 20 maybe thats too high. I think weve gone from zero to 60 really fast but lets regroup because not much has changed in my view. I like the way that josh presents that, jim you maybe got too high coming into the week, expectations were high, maybe now you leave into the weekend and youre feeling a little low based on what happened tom lee says back up the truck and buy the pull back. You have the fed plus the tariffs, then you have lower 10 year, a weaker u. S. Dollar coming up and he says back up the truck, thats a benefit for investors the citi bob buckland is telling you to buy stocks and focus on the u. S. I agree its not like there isnt risk out there and this china tariffs situation is a big risk. Steve said at the beginning, its deja vu all over again, we know its from yogi barra, im not going to predict whats going on with trade anymore. Instead im going to stick to my knitti knitting im a Value Investor thats what i do, and im finding all sorts of stocks on sale at valuations that if i say theyre cheap that doesnt mean theyre going to rocket higher it gives me a margin of safety if things get worse. What are these stocks these are consistent with what ive been saying the past few weeks. Look at health care, cvs is going to report next week. I know well get to next weeks earnings but that is one i think is under valued. Look at marathon petroleum, good earnings reports and the stocks get hammered marathon blew out all their numbers yesterday, yet the stock is down 2 because of the tariffs, down a little more today. Thats a great one to pick up. Those are two examples, scott. Jenny, play it for me. Im trying to stay cool in the office and out of the office okay. I think its you know, its easy again when i have this portfolio of all stocks. So i buckled down and listened to earnings reports, i have 37 stocks, 16 reported today. Of the 16 all but two beat earnings its easy to look at it from the bottom up to tune out the noise its hard to do that if youre just going on earnings you have to really you know, you got a good story to tell the problem is you no longer have that. You have an uncertain fed you always did. I dont think thats true, scott. I agree its always uncertain more today than it was monday. No, its not. When steve says its deja vu all over again its not like ten times this year its deja vu all over again 12 times every year for 25 years. I agree talking about the specific fact pattern. If were going to talk about trade we see over and over threats, little implementation what am i going to do . Im going to sit tight, stay cool until september 1st see what happens i know its not the numbers on the tariffs that matter its what plays out in the following months when i look at the portfolio i dont see that or a 25 point basis cut affecting any of the 16 companies that reported this week. You said something interesting. Im going to sit tight until september 1st. Umhum. So is that where we are were in the penalty box were frozen until september 1st when we figure out whats happening with the tariffs its not like the fall is typically all that great in the markets. Maybe you just lost a months worth of productivity, if you want to put it that way, in the market because of what happened with the tweet yesterday about tariffs. So you where does that leave you between now and the fall, which is typically unkind . Heres where it leaves me it leaves me not willing to add more exposure. Particularly josh referenced the beta thats my point. Im not looking to take off therell be opportunities to sell, to buy right now i bought as much apple as i did, didnt foresee this companying i would have waited, bought more, a cheap stock. But they could be very much impacted by china. Boeing look at that, i got the question i dont know if it was yesterday or the day before, 325, 375 i said 375 without thinking. So now im thinking, hey, maybe i reload lower get a greater opportunity. Take advantage of it the point is markets go up most of the time, over 80 of the time and you have the events that provide buying opportunities. The question is you cant pick the bottom, you cant pick the top. But you wait for opportunities its so compelling you have to go in. I look at spo logistics, i had the quarter called right, i look and the stock is up 10 today. I missed it. You dont know whats going on in some things. This is where i say stay cool we own xpo, things for the long run, buy them and plan to hold for three to five years. I get to have the 10 move. Skro josh those are all reasonable points we talk about valuations of stocks and, you know, the pe is not just the e you can get the earnings right you can be in a story where lets go back to google. A company that expectations were very low it was a good set up, the stock had been trailing the other big cap tech names and not a lot of people had a lot of hope for a great quarter, then they reported one, they got a few things right, fixed some of the issues, stock exploded now its given back, most if not all of that gain and then some going into the quarter and then after. So you say, all right, i have the story right now i get a better price so you can do that across multiple acceseptors throughoute market if thats the way you invest if we had a new high every day, there would be no opportunity for anyone, multiples would be permanently elevated and no one would make any money so you have to have these events you dont want to see them get worse, turn into an economic event, most of them dont. Look at your portfolio, ask yourself what you wish you were in, what youre missing and use these moments and hope it stretches on for a few weeks lets look at sectors and figure out what we may want to buy if its attractive enough. Where the banks go from here where do the faangs go from here you talked about apple retail got destroyed. Retail is going to stay detr destroyed, at least brick and more or the. Financials, a lot of stocks are below their book value book value is not necessarily saying its going higher its a margin of safety. You combine it with the earnings, thats a good buy. Energy were not paying attention to the fact oil is now up at the upper end of its range. Its been in the 50 to 60 range. Its closer to the top of that range, thats not reflected in most of the energy stocks. Ill say this again, look at health care, i mentioned cvs, but the swath of health care, pharmaceuticals, bio tech, knocked down because the perception the president is going to engage pricing controls thats a risk burr its priced in. I look at retail, im not taking it for dead i bought a little target, that thing got bashed in a heartbeat. I couldnt get my eyes on the screen fast enough to see it decline. I think its okay here the expectations got so low in one day. I think yeah you need something, i like the 5g theme even though thats high beta but you have to make a decision here are you going to look at the volatility as risk and scare you out of the market or look at it as i prefer to look at it as opportunity. I think its opportunity i like bio tech still. I had cut back some of my xbi. Heres the important distinction. I want to put a name to this because this is what we were talking about earlier. Were talking about being investors right now. This is a difficult market to trade because on any given afternoon in the middle of the afternoon you may get a tweet that causes you to reverse your positions. I like being a longterm investor in this volatile time there are stocks still up there, notwithstanding googles decline. Thats still a well priced stock. If i need factors to put in, like pharmaceuticals. If i told you tariffs were going into effect september 1st and powell is not going to cut rates again in september, how does everybody come out of that feeling. Fine with that. The market understands the first part of that, and has begun discounting how good or bad they think it is if you are trading, what youre not doing is looking through the Oil Stock Lists or looking for the absolute worst retailer you can find if youre trading, youre looking for charts that have held up well this week because when the market does resume those will be your leaders twtr is another company like google, expectations low, off the radar, grinding up exploded on the heels of the number is actually up today in a nasty tape and this stock is plain and simple under accumulation as any other name you can find on the nasdaq these are not just twitter these are the stocks if youre a trader that youre looking for and youre biding your time and they will be the leaders thats right. They will be the leaders when we get through. Let me follow on his point. I sent my note to you this morning, twitter when i was on the show yesterday said i bought it as a trade. I have a stop on it where i got in i got stopped out yesterday afternoon. I liked the way it held up yesterday and i bought it back no tariff impact, no Interest Rate impact. Irrelevant. Thats where people go. It becomes more prevalent with trumps tweet. Actually, the tariff thing might help twitter, ironically. I want to get to scotts question, were at september and we dont have another rate cut to me what that means is Jerome Powell is looking out seeing a better economy he specifically said, weak Global Growth, trade uncertainty and worries on business sentiment. So if theres not a cut, that means he with all the data is seeing something better. So im fine with that. I dont think you have confidence in that what . I think confidence is misplaced in Jerome Powell. I wonder what feels like increased level of risk that the game of chick p, if you want to call it that between the president and the fed chair has been ratcheted up if cynically you say thats interesting, the timing of the tariff tweet comes so close to follow the rate cut, the president wasnt happy, didnt get what he wanted, so hes going to force powells hand. Its not cynicism ive been telling you we were headed here for two and a half years. Its a game of chicken between the two . Its not really chicken its speeches, its tv appearances, tweets. Its not like literal chicken. Really . No. Its not im going to head down to the fed and pull this guy out of his desk. Thats not whats happening. He doesnt have to do that. Im suggesting, by putting these tariffs on, hes doing that without marching down to the federal reserve. They were going on anyway if there wasnt a deal and there wasnt a deal. Heres the problem with the line of thinking two youre giving trump more credit than he deserves. Yes. No. 2 he would have come out with that statement before the meeting so they could consider going 50 bips. I think powell is forcing the hand if you look at the ten year were off 20 basis points in one week thats a huge move youre at 2 before this came down thats going to resonate in the halls of the fed theyre going to say wait a second we thought one cut of 25 basis point was going to hopefully cure that thing. No didnt cure it. The fed is not going to cure it ever because you have trading below zero no matter what they do. Youll never cure it but they cant cure it either. Its resonating in the office of bond fund managers, i can tell you that because yields do continue to fall. What do you make of it and how low do we go its its an interesting phenomenon that weve seen rally from 325 at the end of last year to 187 today i really i think you need to look at the move in its totality when we look at the futures market, pricing in 50 basis points of further cuts this year and 75 basis points of cuts through the next 12 months we think that a lot has been priced in. The house view at double line is currently neutral. But in the near term given this momentum, i could see especially following the trade the potential implementation of tariffs in the trade dispute, you could see the tenyear trade down to 175, 170 and then consolidate what were looking at Going Forward is data, either to continue to materialize to the downside or were against what we, you know, have been talking about more on a mediumterm basis is increased treasury supply a budget deal has just passed. Its 1. 37 trillion it looks like the president is going to sign that into law. So we think that these counter vailing forces, the market is going to need to sort out in the coming weeks to months because what is the future prospect for Economic Data versus the large amount of supply coming on. How many times does the fed go from here on out, do you think . I really think that that depends on, as you were talking about earlier, does President Trump actually implement the tariffs on september 1st if he does, i think that the Market Pricing is probably fair. If he doesnt or he delays it, maybe we only go another 25 to 50 i think that when we look at the tariffs, one thing i wanted to point out is this new 10 tariff is on consumer goods mostly. The prior tariffs didnt affect the consumer when we look at the q 2 gdp report it was carried by private consumption now this tariff is going to target the consumer more concerning, and Jerome Powell pointed this out on the capital spending, weve seen some material weeking. I know eddie pointed out that a lot of that was due to inventory adjustment one thing that caught my eye was it spending and equipment spending which had been running hot following the trump tax cuts has now come to basically flat and now the equipment spending and i. P. Spending tends to be the precursor to future productivity growth. So i see head winds building for the economy on the cap x side but President Trumps new tariffs could hurt the last engine of growth were seeing which is private consumption. Bill thats a good point. This is josh brown isnt it also true, however, that our economy probably unique versus every other economy in the world, has so many offsets and so much of a seesaw makeup that, for example, we say, okay, this next round of tariffs is bad for Global Growth and arguably could hurt consumer demand via higher prices, thats fine but now lowering rates, possibly gives maybe a little bit of a lift to borrowing to buy a home or maybe the drop that we saw in oil and eventually gasoline this week, maybe that helps the consumer at the pump its hard in my opinion to say heres one event that happened and a black and white result i think theres enough give and take where these tariffs, while they are now targeted towards something new, there is some benefits that come along with what powell has had to do as a result of that that maybe offsets it and its a push by the way, Wage Inflation may be slowing, too, which helps corporate earnings what are your thoughts on that stew of different ingredients . You pointed out a lot of cross currents that were currently monitoring on the wage side, Wage Inflation or average Hourly Earnings remaining above 3 , is positive for the consumer on one side, but remember thats going to eat into corporate profits on the other side Jerome Powell, i think, when i look at his messaging, and i look at the feds messaging in totality, its been very confusing. Leading up to the blackout period for this meeting we heard a lot of discussion about low inflaii inflation, thats a global discussion we heard discussion with Halftime Report<\/a> starts right now. Good to have you with us on this friday. Our committee at the able today, josh brown, jim lethan that will, Jenny Harrington<\/a> lets begin the markets. Stocks lower again, wrapping up a turbulent week that has thrown the remainder of the summer in doubt. Its how we came into the week and how were ending it are two different feelings you tell me what to do as we move forward here. Its deja vu. We saw it before well see it again. Heres how it plays out. As we get close to the fed meeting we saw the odds of another cut, they were high to start with the markets get excited about that we could see trump flip flop he put the tweet out, didnt get much play from it because he was asleep, so wait until dude is awake if youre going to smack him between the eyes so i took off a little exposure as soon as the tweet hit markets at all levels, alltime highs, were at high levels, getting nervous, antsy did anything change for you this week . You came in thinking powell has your back and then we leave the week wondering whether he does yep. Now whether we have to factor in the negative impact of tariffs, which have already had a pretty rough impact on business sentiment. I was on Cruise Control<\/a> until yesterday afternoon. So yes, things did change. And the chances of a correction actually get ratcheted up. Do i think the market will eventually recover i think that way, yes. The employment number was mixed. Top line was strong. When you look at the revisions, when you look at what wage growth is doing. It was sort of, i think, under stated lets put it like that, relative to the market you need the fed to come in again if trump goes this way it comes to trade, trade was in the background we have a freebie until september meeting, but we dont have that anymore. Barry gnash says time to cut risks. You have notes trying to advise people to stay the course. Bank of america says its not the big top, stay bullish but the overshoot. Whether you can get that euphoric move maybe to 4200 on the s p, thats tougher now. How do you see it . Im not sure theres a mathematical way to say that statement that its tougher now is true or false thats why they play the game. I havent seen the analysis that went into that you had two copies with wonderful earnings great fundamental stories. Apple and google they report, both apple is now 8. 5 below its earnings day high and google is now 6 below if you were an investor and you were underweight or out of those stocks and you wished you were in them, you were handed a gift. Two stories i can cite out of 50 different stories. Companies doing great that have got caught up in what happened in the market. These are strong stocks with great charts, fundamentals, getting stronger and you got a discount the cues are up 21 year to date, s p 500 still up, we are less than 3 from an alltime record high. The damage has been contained to the places it should be, reversal in the banks, regionals down 6. 5 from the fed day obviously oil is its own story but the big picture here, s p low volatility stocks take the splvtf that is only down. 75 from its high midweek. Thats nothing its essentially flat. S p high data is down 6 the stocks that should have been hit got hit. To steves point, the Cruise Control<\/a> thing, a lot of people were on Cruise Control<\/a> last week, vicks was at 11, and this week it got to 20 maybe thats too high. I think weve gone from zero to 60 really fast but lets regroup because not much has changed in my view. I like the way that josh presents that, jim you maybe got too high coming into the week, expectations were high, maybe now you leave into the weekend and youre feeling a little low based on what happened tom lee says back up the truck and buy the pull back. You have the fed plus the tariffs, then you have lower 10 year, a weaker u. S. Dollar coming up and he says back up the truck, thats a benefit for investors the citi bob buckland is telling you to buy stocks and focus on the u. S. I agree its not like there isnt risk out there and this china tariffs situation is a big risk. Steve said at the beginning, its deja vu all over again, we know its from yogi barra, im not going to predict whats going on with trade anymore. Instead im going to stick to my knitti knitting im a Value Investor<\/a> thats what i do, and im finding all sorts of stocks on sale at valuations that if i say theyre cheap that doesnt mean theyre going to rocket higher it gives me a margin of safety if things get worse. What are these stocks these are consistent with what ive been saying the past few weeks. Look at health care, cvs is going to report next week. I know well get to next weeks earnings but that is one i think is under valued. Look at marathon petroleum, good earnings reports and the stocks get hammered marathon blew out all their numbers yesterday, yet the stock is down 2 because of the tariffs, down a little more today. Thats a great one to pick up. Those are two examples, scott. Jenny, play it for me. Im trying to stay cool in the office and out of the office okay. I think its you know, its easy again when i have this portfolio of all stocks. So i buckled down and listened to earnings reports, i have 37 stocks, 16 reported today. Of the 16 all but two beat earnings its easy to look at it from the bottom up to tune out the noise its hard to do that if youre just going on earnings you have to really you know, you got a good story to tell the problem is you no longer have that. You have an uncertain fed you always did. I dont think thats true, scott. I agree its always uncertain more today than it was monday. No, its not. When steve says its deja vu all over again its not like ten times this year its deja vu all over again 12 times every year for 25 years. I agree talking about the specific fact pattern. If were going to talk about trade we see over and over threats, little implementation what am i going to do . Im going to sit tight, stay cool until september 1st see what happens i know its not the numbers on the tariffs that matter its what plays out in the following months when i look at the portfolio i dont see that or a 25 point basis cut affecting any of the 16 companies that reported this week. You said something interesting. Im going to sit tight until september 1st. Umhum. So is that where we are were in the penalty box were frozen until september 1st when we figure out whats happening with the tariffs its not like the fall is typically all that great in the markets. Maybe you just lost a months worth of productivity, if you want to put it that way, in the market because of what happened with the tweet yesterday about tariffs. So you where does that leave you between now and the fall, which is typically unkind . Heres where it leaves me it leaves me not willing to add more exposure. Particularly josh referenced the beta thats my point. Im not looking to take off therell be opportunities to sell, to buy right now i bought as much apple as i did, didnt foresee this companying i would have waited, bought more, a cheap stock. But they could be very much impacted by china. Boeing look at that, i got the question i dont know if it was yesterday or the day before, 325, 375 i said 375 without thinking. So now im thinking, hey, maybe i reload lower get a greater opportunity. Take advantage of it the point is markets go up most of the time, over 80 of the time and you have the events that provide buying opportunities. The question is you cant pick the bottom, you cant pick the top. But you wait for opportunities its so compelling you have to go in. I look at spo logistics, i had the quarter called right, i look and the stock is up 10 today. I missed it. You dont know whats going on in some things. This is where i say stay cool we own xpo, things for the long run, buy them and plan to hold for three to five years. I get to have the 10 move. Skro josh those are all reasonable points we talk about valuations of stocks and, you know, the pe is not just the e you can get the earnings right you can be in a story where lets go back to google. A company that expectations were very low it was a good set up, the stock had been trailing the other big cap tech names and not a lot of people had a lot of hope for a great quarter, then they reported one, they got a few things right, fixed some of the issues, stock exploded now its given back, most if not all of that gain and then some going into the quarter and then after. So you say, all right, i have the story right now i get a better price so you can do that across multiple acceseptors throughoute market if thats the way you invest if we had a new high every day, there would be no opportunity for anyone, multiples would be permanently elevated and no one would make any money so you have to have these events you dont want to see them get worse, turn into an economic event, most of them dont. Look at your portfolio, ask yourself what you wish you were in, what youre missing and use these moments and hope it stretches on for a few weeks lets look at sectors and figure out what we may want to buy if its attractive enough. Where the banks go from here where do the faangs go from here you talked about apple retail got destroyed. Retail is going to stay detr destroyed, at least brick and more or the. Financials, a lot of stocks are below their book value book value is not necessarily saying its going higher its a margin of safety. You combine it with the earnings, thats a good buy. Energy were not paying attention to the fact oil is now up at the upper end of its range. Its been in the 50 to 60 range. Its closer to the top of that range, thats not reflected in most of the energy stocks. Ill say this again, look at health care, i mentioned cvs, but the swath of health care, pharmaceuticals, bio tech, knocked down because the perception the president is going to engage pricing controls thats a risk burr its priced in. I look at retail, im not taking it for dead i bought a little target, that thing got bashed in a heartbeat. I couldnt get my eyes on the screen fast enough to see it decline. I think its okay here the expectations got so low in one day. I think yeah you need something, i like the 5g theme even though thats high beta but you have to make a decision here are you going to look at the volatility as risk and scare you out of the market or look at it as i prefer to look at it as opportunity. I think its opportunity i like bio tech still. I had cut back some of my xbi. Heres the important distinction. I want to put a name to this because this is what we were talking about earlier. Were talking about being investors right now. This is a difficult market to trade because on any given afternoon in the middle of the afternoon you may get a tweet that causes you to reverse your positions. I like being a longterm investor in this volatile time there are stocks still up there, notwithstanding googles decline. Thats still a well priced stock. If i need factors to put in, like pharmaceuticals. If i told you tariffs were going into effect september 1st and powell is not going to cut rates again in september, how does everybody come out of that feeling. Fine with that. The market understands the first part of that, and has begun discounting how good or bad they think it is if you are trading, what youre not doing is looking through the Oil Stock Lists<\/a> or looking for the absolute worst retailer you can find if youre trading, youre looking for charts that have held up well this week because when the market does resume those will be your leaders twtr is another company like google, expectations low, off the radar, grinding up exploded on the heels of the number is actually up today in a nasty tape and this stock is plain and simple under accumulation as any other name you can find on the nasdaq these are not just twitter these are the stocks if youre a trader that youre looking for and youre biding your time and they will be the leaders thats right. They will be the leaders when we get through. Let me follow on his point. I sent my note to you this morning, twitter when i was on the show yesterday said i bought it as a trade. I have a stop on it where i got in i got stopped out yesterday afternoon. I liked the way it held up yesterday and i bought it back no tariff impact, no Interest Rate<\/a> impact. Irrelevant. Thats where people go. It becomes more prevalent with trumps tweet. Actually, the tariff thing might help twitter, ironically. I want to get to scotts question, were at september and we dont have another rate cut to me what that means is Jerome Powell<\/a> is looking out seeing a better economy he specifically said, weak Global Growth<\/a>, trade uncertainty and worries on business sentiment. So if theres not a cut, that means he with all the data is seeing something better. So im fine with that. I dont think you have confidence in that what . I think confidence is misplaced in Jerome Powell<\/a>. I wonder what feels like increased level of risk that the game of chick p, if you want to call it that between the president and the fed chair has been ratcheted up if cynically you say thats interesting, the timing of the tariff tweet comes so close to follow the rate cut, the president wasnt happy, didnt get what he wanted, so hes going to force powells hand. Its not cynicism ive been telling you we were headed here for two and a half years. Its a game of chicken between the two . Its not really chicken its speeches, its tv appearances, tweets. Its not like literal chicken. Really . No. Its not im going to head down to the fed and pull this guy out of his desk. Thats not whats happening. He doesnt have to do that. Im suggesting, by putting these tariffs on, hes doing that without marching down to the federal reserve. They were going on anyway if there wasnt a deal and there wasnt a deal. Heres the problem with the line of thinking two youre giving trump more credit than he deserves. Yes. No. 2 he would have come out with that statement before the meeting so they could consider going 50 bips. I think powell is forcing the hand if you look at the ten year were off 20 basis points in one week thats a huge move youre at 2 before this came down thats going to resonate in the halls of the fed theyre going to say wait a second we thought one cut of 25 basis point was going to hopefully cure that thing. No didnt cure it. The fed is not going to cure it ever because you have trading below zero no matter what they do. Youll never cure it but they cant cure it either. Its resonating in the office of bond fund managers, i can tell you that because yields do continue to fall. What do you make of it and how low do we go its its an interesting phenomenon that weve seen rally from 325 at the end of last year to 187 today i really i think you need to look at the move in its totality when we look at the futures market, pricing in 50 basis points of further cuts this year and 75 basis points of cuts through the next 12 months we think that a lot has been priced in. The house view at double line is currently neutral. But in the near term given this momentum, i could see especially following the trade the potential implementation of tariffs in the trade dispute, you could see the tenyear trade down to 175, 170 and then consolidate what were looking at Going Forward<\/a> is data, either to continue to materialize to the downside or were against what we, you know, have been talking about more on a mediumterm basis is increased treasury supply a budget deal has just passed. Its 1. 37 trillion it looks like the president is going to sign that into law. So we think that these counter vailing forces, the market is going to need to sort out in the coming weeks to months because what is the future prospect for Economic Data<\/a> versus the large amount of supply coming on. How many times does the fed go from here on out, do you think . I really think that that depends on, as you were talking about earlier, does President Trump<\/a> actually implement the tariffs on september 1st if he does, i think that the Market Pricing<\/a> is probably fair. If he doesnt or he delays it, maybe we only go another 25 to 50 i think that when we look at the tariffs, one thing i wanted to point out is this new 10 tariff is on consumer goods mostly. The prior tariffs didnt affect the consumer when we look at the q 2 gdp report it was carried by private consumption now this tariff is going to target the consumer more concerning, and Jerome Powell<\/a> pointed this out on the capital spending, weve seen some material weeking. I know eddie pointed out that a lot of that was due to inventory adjustment one thing that caught my eye was it spending and equipment spending which had been running hot following the trump tax cuts has now come to basically flat and now the equipment spending and i. P. Spending tends to be the precursor to future productivity growth. So i see head winds building for the economy on the cap x side but President Trump<\/a>s new tariffs could hurt the last engine of growth were seeing which is private consumption. Bill thats a good point. This is josh brown isnt it also true, however, that our economy probably unique versus every other economy in the world, has so many offsets and so much of a seesaw makeup that, for example, we say, okay, this next round of tariffs is bad for Global Growth<\/a> and arguably could hurt consumer demand via higher prices, thats fine but now lowering rates, possibly gives maybe a little bit of a lift to borrowing to buy a home or maybe the drop that we saw in oil and eventually gasoline this week, maybe that helps the consumer at the pump its hard in my opinion to say heres one event that happened and a black and white result i think theres enough give and take where these tariffs, while they are now targeted towards something new, there is some benefits that come along with what powell has had to do as a result of that that maybe offsets it and its a push by the way, Wage Inflation<\/a> may be slowing, too, which helps corporate earnings what are your thoughts on that stew of different ingredients . You pointed out a lot of cross currents that were currently monitoring on the wage side, Wage Inflation<\/a> or average Hourly Earnings<\/a> remaining above 3 , is positive for the consumer on one side, but remember thats going to eat into corporate profits on the other side Jerome Powell<\/a>, i think, when i look at his messaging, and i look at the feds messaging in totality, its been very confusing. Leading up to the blackout period for this meeting we heard a lot of discussion about low inflaii inflation, thats a global discussion we heard discussion with Interest Rate<\/a>s so low and close to the lower bound you may need to act more forcefully officialofficiainitiall to stimulate Economic Growth<\/a> then we got to the press conference, the cut 25, initially the market said okay maybe well do 25 this time and 25 the next meeting. But Jerome Powell<\/a> seemed to not open the door wide open for that next 25 basis point cut. So although i do agree with you that offsets of large fed cuts can help to a certain extent offset some of the trade impact of tariffs, i question the feds commitment to actually delivering on those cuts that are needed and i think that thats going to keep investors kind of half invested i think investors still remain invested in what they arn risk right now. Bill we appreciate your time helping us figure out where we are and where we may go from here based on this weeks turbulent events heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report<\/a>. Its not hip to be square today. A double downgrade for the stock. Its our call of the day. Get ready for another big week of earnings uber, disney, lift, shake shack and more. And our Investment Committee<\/a> is answering your questions. Go to cnbc. Com halftime. The Halftime Report<\/a> is back in two minutes. How do you gauge the greatness of an suv . Is it to carry cargo. Or to carry on a legacy . Its show of strength. Or its sign of intelligence . In crossing harsh terrain. Or breaking new ground . This is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedesbenz summer event, going on now. Lease the gla 250 suv for just 329 a month at the mercedesbenz summer event. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Lets cowboy up exhilarating speed. Woo precision control. Woo maximum reliability. Access denied. [ repeats ] access denied. If its not xfinity xfi, its not good enough. For wifi with super powers, get xfinity xfi. And go see, fast furious presents, hobbs shaw. Now playing. Im steve weiss if you have questions for me or the halftime crew send them to cnbc. Com halftimereport. Or get us on twitter with the hashtag ask halftime welcome back. Heres your news update. R. Kelly has pleaded not guilty to charges he sexually exploited young women and girls who attended his concerts. The singer was denied bail in a Brooklyn Federal<\/a> Court Prosecutors<\/a> argue he is a flight risk. The recent heat wave in western europe that caused record high temperatures was made more intense by man made Climate Change<\/a> according to a study published today. The reports lead author says europe needs to get used to such heat waves. It gives a concrete example of what the climate will be in the future we have to get accustomed to this kind of phenomenon and there will be more and more frequent and more and more intense. According to a new study by northwest ern university, more than a million americans are believed to have a sesame allergy. A majority also have at least one other food allergy the fda is considering requiring labelling on food packaging. Thats the news update at this hour. We appreciate that, sue. Square is having their worst days since november of 2017. A rare double downgrade today. Square cut to underperform, 64 is the price target its our call of the day for a stock thats well regarded jenny. August is my one Year Anniversary<\/a> on cnbc, when i was on last august we were talking about square, a Huge Positive<\/a> upgrade. I said i cant buy it at 100 times but i did own five serve at 20 times. Fast forward a year, square is down 15 , five serve is up 31 i agree with the downgrade still too expensive. More down side to go and you mice look at fiserv instead. I want to say happy anniversary. I was waiting to brag as soon as i saw need longer arms. You picture jenny sitting back watching old clips of herself. No, no. When its your first show youre scared you remember everything. Square has had a nice run. It was 16 a year before that. Depending on when you put it. Its but its expensive. Double downgrade and you have the guidance, which was the issue. So what do we do with it now for a stock thats still up 22 year to date, wiping off a chunk of what was a better game with todays smash. Josh i think youre a momentum trader youre not in the stock its on yourlist, a name on your radar but this is broken. The trend is not there if youre a trader and this is your universe of stocks, the ibd 100 names and buying the biggest most high octane Growth Stocks<\/a> in the nasdaq and s p, this was a staple name you went to, you bought the dips, so long as it held its line, but its broken so these stocks have to set up again before that crowd takes an intere interest im talking about a trillion dollars worth of Software Programs<\/a> doing the same trades jennys right. Theyre not cheap enough to find their way in the hands of Value Investor<\/a>s, if there were any left but theyre also not going to be played by momentum traders. I think theyre in a nether world. What do you do with it you can keep the bat on your shoulder theres no three stirikes. But you buy master card or visa. Or fieserv. Also expensive but always had been. We were talking earlier about whats going to work Going Forward<\/a>. Theres a lot of things going to work, whats not going to work a high priced stock thats not going to work. When you think about the consumer carrying this economy, square is tied to the consumer, theres no reason to own the stock. Sometimes people go into these stocks because theyve come from nowhere, theyre the new thing and the momentum carries them and they forget theyre not breaking new ground, necessarily. Its a competitive marketplace i like the visa, thats where i am, thats where ive been sure its higher than its valued historically, but i believe the market should get a premium multiple visa doesnt have the same volatility as the high multiple names. Im in master card for the same reason. But its an extremely crowded trade. To your point, no one is discovering master card. Everyone in these type of stocks has been there, has added, has possibly traded in this and out. So when people decide that a story has changed or theyre onto the next thing, these things will whip saw you you have to decide are you an investor or trader so that will determine whether youre trailing with a stop an ema if youre an investor you say i hope it breaks down because i dont own it and ive always wanted to. Then you figure out what kind of investor you are, a value leading do you agree the most dangerous thing you can be is indesee sieve. Somebody that doesnt know what they are. Thats true in life the socalled dorsey stocks, twitter and square, its everybody is taking twitter today . Yeah. The jack dorsey. Even i own twitter. Its the rotation theyre going from one of his companies into the other. This whole space has had an unbelievable move. Look at Global Payments<\/a> thats not a cheap stock either you have to worry about a stock selling that kind of multiple in this business. Straight ahead, the big earnings to watch for next week. We have a lot of them were going to round the desk. First we get you a check on the s p sectors. S p is under pressure down about 23 points. Utilities are in the green tech, materials, everyone green is looking good, too, judge. There you go. There you go. Back right after this. The United States<\/a> Postal Service<\/a> makes more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. Who used expedia to book the Vacation Rental<\/a> that led to the ride which took them to the place where they discovered that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. Flights, hotels, cars, activities, Vacation Rental<\/a>s. Expedia. Everything you need to go. Dprevagen is the number onemild memopharmacistrecommendedng . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Big set up to another earnings week ahead. Names like disney, and uber and shake shack and roku are all set to report. So lets take them one by one. Lets do disney first. Josh, give me the take on disney i think this one is easy. Frankly, this is a company that i dont know that theres anything anyone will look at and say i have an issue with this because theres so much planned. Maybe the biggest thing to watch for is if theyre getting ahead of their skis i think your mic fell off well get another take while josh finds that. So nobody heard that. I think this is an easy one i dont know if they did or didnt im only kidding. I dont know if they did or didnt. I think thats a perfect assessment of it espn doesnt matter its an old issue now, a few losses maybe a few wins in terms of the new Subscription Service<\/a> everyone is looking for the launch they have to put up what they said theyre going to do or be close. If theyre not close you have enough of an appetite for people to buy in. Its the perfect stock for this kind of environment. Im back and i concur with everything you called it, you said its easy. Its easy i wouldnt expect fireworks. This isnt like a plus or minus 10 move unless something really unique happens so thats why i think it happens. Shake shacks report next week you own that stock. Shack so all right, shack is less of an earning story and more of a same shack sales story. Its always been that way. Theyve missed and the stocks have gone up, theyve beaten and the stocks have gone down. A lot of it is based on user or Consumer Trends<\/a> but that stuff has been in their favor. International is going better than expected. So many of these chains have said were going to asia, and its been a disaster or it took a while. Shack seems to be pretty good at it, i dont know why but you have those two tail winds. Ive been in this name since the 20s. Im probably never selling. Ben to the penn station one late night no, i cant do it. Not since that one time. Definitely since that one time how about uber . They have chicken now its fried but they have it. Thing, i might get stopped out of it anyway so theyre going to report earnings another name where were not talking about net income, obviously. This is a game of how much can they spend and not freak out soft bank and, you know, big backers like that who are most of the share count i dont really know what the street is looking for here, but i think its going to hinge upon whether or not the perception is that expenses are out of control. The good news is i think dara knows that and the tone on the call is going to be guys, were actually running a business. But you had lyft, they cut quite a few people this past week. Uber, too. Right i was going to get to that that doesnt bode well in my view for the earnings. I wouldnt play earnings on these. The stock is reflecting that, down 12 . It is and the Short Interest<\/a> is so high i havent looked lately i can make an accurate guess they are, if they do give you slightly better, the stocks are up 20 . If i can give you one story stock, cvs, the healthcare chain that bought aetna. So far in the First Six Months<\/a> aetna has been killing it on the Medicare Advantage<\/a> business which is important to them id look to the earnings there, not only to see how aetna is doing but also they should be paying down debt rapidly so thats one to watch. Roku . Im going to come out and make a stance here do we have a graphic for this animations, sirens. The stock is ridiculously priced i can say the emperor is not wearing any clothes. You dont own the stock anymore . I dont i would love to but not when its up 300 of the year and trading 10 times sales somebody may come out after earning and say it should have 20 times sales none of the numbers make sense its trading in the xo atmosphere so be careful on this one. When you owned it, you loved it running up. And then it got a little nose bleedishin ble bleedish, so to speak. Yes you would get back in if it took a tumble. It would have to be a big tumble we had this discussion i was outside of my lane on this one, i had fun with it but at the same time you dont buy this until theres a breakdown and you watch that breakdown go to completion and bottom. This is not a time to buy it coming up the desk is answering your questions on gm, slack and alumina. Well do that next you can still reach us on our website or tweet us. Website or tweet us. Back in two minutes. Can you raise the bar while reducing your footprint . For our 100 years weve been answering the questions of today to meet the energy needs of tomorrow. Southern company [music plays throughout le lack of afro recipe for love] whoaahoooo oo yeahhh aa aa aye ive got so much love to give ive got so much more to give, baby this is a moment you plan for. To start your retirement plan, find an advisor at massmutual. Com [sfx mnemonic] were back on the Halftime Report<\/a>. Lets answer your questions now. First up for jimmy in new jersey on gm. Gm is killing it, being held hostage, stock is missing trade in north america thats what i was going to say. Thats exactly what i was going to say did you have my notes there . Its being held hostage to china. Its been held hostage for almost two years now in the last three years the stocks been up annually 10 , average, plus a 4. 5 dividend yield. It gets through the garbage about china. Youre right to focus on north ameri america. Weve been talking about auto for four years were at plateau at 17 million in north america. Josh for you from dennis in philadelphia when sit safe to add slack its never safe to add any stock. Lets play this game i own it. Would you buy it. Let me give you the most honest answer, i own the stock i knew we could get to a safe place. Do you want to let me do my spiel . I dont have to. This is for dennis, not for you. Hi, dennis, so no, heres the point i want to make you had the nicinitiations frome analysts that under wrote it mostly buys a couple of equal rates. Everyone saying equal rate is saying something reasonable. Theyre saying this business could be 5 billion in revenue a few years from now, 10 billion in revenue within a decade and that would justify basically more than its worth today so we all agree its an amazing product. Thats not disputed. What is disputed is they have 10 million daily active users microsoft is at 13 million with their team product the question is is there one winner or can they both thrive and slack can beat microsoft im willing to make the bet this is possible. And this is an early sales force but its a huge bet. Its pricing in theyre going to be successful. Its a tough stock unless youre willing to have faith. I dont own a ton of it, i add more, i may seam not selling it. That was long i know. Jenny, phil in north carolina, cedar fair, what you must love. Top that jenny from the block. I think its a safe investment with 7. 25 investment. I dont own it but i like the theme theyre a great way to play a strong consumer i love the amusement parks. Great stuff Everybody Oil<\/a> price rebounding after posting the day in four years. First kelly tells us whats coming up on the exchange. The president is set to announce a trade deal with the eu in about an hours time will he also say more on china, on the fed, markets we will bring it to you. Plus footwear fumbles, why the shoe industry could get hit hard, how and who is most impacted will mortgage falls and if so how low will they go thats coming up the Halftime Report<\/a> is back right after this my experience with usaa has been excellent. They really appreciate the military family and it really shows. With all that usaa offers why go with anybody else . We know their rates are good, we know that theyre always going to take care of us. It was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. It was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say oh we cant beat usaa were the webber family. Were the tenneys were the hayles, and were usaa members for life. Get your usaa Auto Insurance<\/a> quote today. Welcome back to the Halftime Report<\/a>. Crude oil bouncing back today after its worst day in more than four years our traders today are brian and anthony. Brian, lets start with you, Oil Rebounding<\/a> after yesterdays losses but trade uncertainty still remains a threat to Global Demand<\/a> so what does that mean for oil next well, it does i think even more importantly what it means for supply because i think people freaked out originally, what would that mean for the iranian sanctions and how china responds with iran on that, could more supply come to the market through their vehicles i think its rebounding back because i think cooler heads are prevailing a bit were not collapsing to negative globally gdp growth here so i think the demand picture is still there enough to support oil. Yes, the trade is low, but i expect it to hold the low 50 area and, anthony, you see that its more than just trumps tweets that will cap oil gains for theyear . Half of a barrel of crude oil is made into gasoline, and that demand has been running about 200,000 barrels a day less i would say oil could get back to about 58, but its certainly not going to go above 62 or 63 this year without some major supply disruption. All right 58. Thanks, brian and anthony. That does it for us. For more futures now, check out our website. Halftime is back with your halftime is back with your final trades next. Online now, read the stocks that will determine the markets next move. Go to trading a nation. Cnbc. Com now. Do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging . Prevagen is the number one pharmacistrecommended memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Tell him were flexible. Dont worry. My dutch is ok. Just ok . in dutch tell him we need this merger. in dutch its happening. just ok is not ok. Especially when it comes to your network. At t is americas best Wireless Network<\/a> according to americas biggest test. Now with 5g evolution. The first step to 5g. More for your thing. Thats our thing. Your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. Who used expedia to book the Vacation Rental<\/a> which led to the discovery that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. Expedia. Everything you need to go. All right. Welcome back we want to congratulate our own josh brown today he was named to investipedias top 100 list for Financial Advisors<\/a> im just going to try to keep it about the music and not let it get to my head. I appreciate the shoutout. Thanks to everyone that voted by the way. Were happy to do that for you. Give us a final trade while youre at it i think the twitter breakout is for real. Theyre buying back shares. Enterprise products and steve weiss skyworks. I like it. Big earnings next week as we said right now the Dow Jones Industrial<\/a> average is down more than 200 points. Hope everybody has a great weekend. Thanks for watching. The exchange begins right now. Thank you, scott hi, everybody. Heres whats ahead. Trade warriors are slamming stocks for the second straight day now. China says its ready to fight back against trumps new tariffs. What could they do and what would it mean for the markets . Well explore that plus, hitting rewind on the recovery one analyst says the new tariffs could completely offset the fiscal policy boost this year. Hell join us to discuss what that means for the economy and how low will they go as treasury yields plunge, will Mortgage Rates<\/a> follow . Well look at who might benefit from that. 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