Were close to setting a record for Second Quarter and they did that here are the important numbers people are focusing on this afternoon. Total deliveries at 95,200 the model 3 numbers, this was what everybody was focused on of all of these, 77,550 for some context here, wall street expected 74,100 so they blew past that number. Model s and x stronger than expected, coming in just over 17,000 theres good news regarding the backlog. In the release, tesla says orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering q3 with an increase in order backlog. Elon musk said for sometime theres not a demand problem now theyre saying there really isnt a demand problem we are seeing an increase in the number of orders that are out there. This is the chart that shows the increase in model 3 deliveries remember how it fell off in the First Quarter . Thats what sparked everybody saying, look, there might be a demand issue here, why are they not fulfilling as many deliveries they blew past the estimate of 74,100, delivering 77,550. Just over 87,000 vehicles were produced at tesla. They do not break it down by region however, melissa, so it is hard to know how much is north america. Likely a good chunk of it, the majority is north america and the United States. How much is europe, which has been increasing in deliveries, and then the wild card in all of this, how many of the deliveries were to china. Remember, theres a tariff on vehicles built in california and then shipped to china right now. We should note too, phil, the company says it will no longer report vehicles in transit after this quarter so that is sort of a change in the numbers they will release. In terms of the questions answered with this release and unanswered, phil, what would you put in each category in terms of the answered, some might say that the demand issue might be answered, a cannibalization issue might be answered. I would say that, yes. Okay. Especially on the demand side because remember so much was made by a number of analysts that you had an ev tax credit, the federal ev tax credit in the United States was cut in half from the second half of last year to the first half of this year and people said, well, youre really asking people, do you want to step up and buy the vehicle if youre not getting as much of a tax credit there so that question has been answered and especially with the fact that theyre saying, look, our order backlog is growing from the Second Quarter to the third quarter. So it would seem that they have put to rest this question about whether or not they have just burned through all of the previous reservations, hand raisers, whatever name you want to call it for the model 3, and that they are growing and generating greatest interest. In terms of the Unanswered Questions still that remain, even with this release, phil, it would be margins, right . Oh, yes, it is definitely margin. Yeah, and then definitely margin what was the price you told the model 3s and what was the mix, thats what it comes down to. Would we have a sense of how much how many sales have been pulled forward because of the drop in the federal tax credit well, i would assume not much, melissa. Okay. If you have got if your order backlog is growing right. Now, we dont know exactly which order backlog is growing here is it growing mainly for the 3 that would be the assumption how much is it growing for the s and the x as well . These are numbers that when they come out with q2 financials, thats going to shed a lot of light in terms of how much pressure is being put on margins. Okay. Phil, thank you. Phil lebeau in chicago breaking the numbers down for us. We should note tesla shares are up about 7 in the after hours session. Does the delivery number change the bear thesis. I will go to the biggest bear on the desk and that would be tim seymour who went short on tesla in the numbers. I dont think it changes the bear thesis. I dont know how we can answer demand first of all we moved the bar so low in terms of the Second Quarter deliveries if i had numbers up, we are still averaging about 350 which is below their 360 to 400 which is if they can continue to do this i think we knew they were going to pull a few rabbits out of the hat for the Second Quarter i think they have to to not talk about financials with this company is to really miss one of the biggest issues, but i think, look, good for them the reality is the other issues that this company is facing they continue to see mass exodus from their executive ranks. They had three more important people in the last week including their head of production, their head of engineering, steve mcmanus, announced, their head of europe announced. In a couple of cases it is to go to Key Competitors look, to me the issue is i think demand is very much still in question i think the company is going to also tell you that theyre not in a position to grow aggressively because, in fact, theyre doing everything they can to secure and conserve cash. We know theyre trying to raise money. The best thing going on for them right now is credit spreads right now have gotten to be alltime tight and people seem to be throwing money at the problem. To play devils advocate, order backlog is growing we had three higher than expected how can we say theres a demand question, at least as of the end of the quarter in terms of the growth theyre building a new factory in china. There was a huge miss last quarter in q1 deliveries. Very true. And then you also have, you know, the tax credit going away. To me i think to tims point you will smooth this stuff out and i think tim made a good point you kind of glossed over you know, if you are a company and the expectations are so low and sentiment is so bad and Short Interest is so high, why wouldnt you put out a little piece of information on the financials, just reaffirming guidance or Something Like that . Because theyre getting quarter earnings in a few weeks. No, if theres material improvement in the margins or Something Like that, why wouldnt you do it right now look, this is not up a lot. This stock moves 10 and 15 all the time it is only up 7 , 8 in the market here. If it was a game changer, you can be up 20 or 30 you can have a move with a stock this heavily shorted it is an uninspiring option. The model 3 geared towards the middle class consumer, the tax credit was cut in half again, it goes away at the end of the year and it hurts the middle class consumer. Beyond that you have more competition entering the space you have volkswagen competing with model 3, porsche rolling out a vehicle to compete with model s so i dont know it is here to stay. To be frank, when it seemed it was trading north of 300 for the major part of the year, the major part of the story was the mass market vehicle and proliferation of the model 3 at the time there were questions about what they could actually produce and ship, and they had preorders for 400,000 or Something Like that. That was the bull case if they start materially beating listen, they beat the expectations of the model 3 by 4 i dont think anyone is doing cart wheels over here right. Theyre still below their 2019 targets if you analyze these numbers. I think about what the deliveries now matter, when deliveries didnt matter it is like the standard in which people follow the Company Changes on a daily basis im not saying were doing it here, but if deliveries are the holy grail right now the company should probably be knocked down. It was a very, very good number relative to expectations, but if you talk to some of the biggest bulls and we had them on our show and they continue to be pointing to this company more as a data story and, you know, the headstart they have on competition in terms of miles traveled and the database theyre building is where the value of the company is. So some of these numbers should be moot if you think that the valuation of the company is tied to things that have nothing to do with this being an auto company, and yet here we are talking about deliveries i just you know, to me there are so many things about the valuation that are difficult to swallow and we havent even talked about the competition that we know is closing fast. You made a great call tactically on a trade in tesla, and the last time you talked about tesla i was on you talked about it last week you said that you didnt know where it was going to go it was anybodys guess at that point. So now now, what there is, if you look at the chart and you might have it in front of you, those that are watching, you have a wall of dead bodies above you. Basically if you look at the threeyear chart that sounds like night fright, man. It is like a game of thrones. At the 250 level you have what is called a red spike unhappy shareholders who by definition have lost money and the stock continues every time when it hits 250 to back away because sellers emerge, dead bodies, over supply, difficult level. I think now theres even more of a lack of transparency, too theyre eliminating, what, customer vehicles in transit, and thats typically not a good thing for a Management Team that already lacks credibility. You would want to see more from them beyond that, they lost another key executive today. So that revolving door continues to be an issue. For more on tesla lets bring in gene munster. Great to have you with us. I am surrounded by bears on this stock. You like the release tell me what this sort of resolved in terms of the bear case against the stock i want to take a step back and talk about that demand topic and the 400,000 number was thrown out there that solidified investors view that the model 3 is off to a fast start, and then we move forward to the december quarter when the model 3 peaked and dipped down in the marquardter that really set the expectation that the company was going to continue to decline, and this was simply a pentup demand, Unprecedented Demand for a new product. This reversal and i would also point out that even though they slightly beat some of the expectation, the whisper numbers were much lower than what they actually reported. So this was entrenched i think in street thinking, is that it is hard to pick what the underlying demand is i would point to two numbers in the march quarter they did 63,000 excuse me, in the december quarter they peaked model 3 at 63,000 deliveries they did 77,000. It wept dont down in march and u to 77,000. There were more headwinds than tail winds in the june quarter we can go through them i will set them off to the side here but if you take the base case there was equal head and tail ends for the june quarter and they stepped up from the peak model 3 quarter and they have greater demand, i think or at least the backlog is greater than they entered, i think the case is powerful theres something bigger going on here electric cars are undoubtedly the future, and so i see this as a powerful step forward. The company is far from perfect. Some of the things that tim talked about, about management deliveries, as someone who supports the story im most concerned about excuse me, management departures, im most concerned about that but that said, i think it is focusing on too much of the details. The big picture is pretty simple, is that this current demand is not about pentup demand for model 3. Are you kerpd concerned at aa in order to achieve the levels of sale for the model 3 specifically that margins were compressed in the quarter . Not as concerned. I think thats more or less a wash given they have recently raised money, our math suggests that as long as they do 80,000 or greater vehicles per quarter at, call it, a 10 margin which is a little below their expectations, they should have money to the end of 2021. Thats not a Perfect World thats one of the problems with the tesla story, but im not as concerned about the cash piece as i was three months ago before they did this called 2. 5 billion raise. Gene, are you concerned they havent confirmed the 2019 guidance these were great numbers you would think it would be a great time to say, by the way, 360 to 400 look really good or have they pulled forward a lot more demand . Is it not something that we can expect i would be concerned if not for them talking about the backlog grew in the quarter, which tends to be a leading indicator of where guidance is so that was noteworthy gene, does it concern you also when you think about just deliveries here you know, actually i have to get up. One of you guys take this. Gene, here is one more question you talked about details you have Key Executives leaving the company who seemingly knew about the Great Results also this is not a concern here you are talking about the big picture, but the big picture is that the most talented people at this company outside of the ceo have largely left this firm at a time when theres a lot of pressure and theres a lot of questions about Corporate Governance so theres no easy way to i mean this is negative. I want to be clear about that. It is negative, what has happened i would also point these departures have happened and this is part of the negativity for the last year and a half but here we are at the end of the june quarter with still some impressive results you cannot sustain a company with the kind of departures that theyve had, but i think that the company has enough trajectory right now, at least over their with the current lineup with their current team to get them to a point where you dont have to worry about solvency at that point i suspect that the retention should improve some of this intense pressure environment that they have, which ultimately forcing some people out of the company, i think should subside so im looking at this as something that is part of a symptom of a company that was in a lot of pain, and i think that as that starts to ease they should have better retention. Are you surprised or concerned that the stock is up 7. 6 when 35 of the shares outstanding are short . I mean there should be a massive squeeze if this number was really that bullish. Carter made this point earlier right . 7. 6 for a name like tesla seems like nothing. Agreed, it is like nothing. The bull bear case is far from over i think that our conversation is evidence of that im not surprised by and i think this will continue i think investors want to see several quarters of that before this ultimately gets back to some form of stability so not surprised, and the questions lets say they have a good September Quarter lets fast forward to a decent September Quarter, the question will be, what about december, and unfortunately at some point, at some level it is a showme story. One other thing, melissa, on that. Yes. I have covered stocks for a long time. I have never seen a story so emotionally charged on both sides. And since it is so charged we will have this bull bear debate for a long time. Always great to get your analysis, gene munster of loup ventures. Thank you this is a massive stock, still down 30 or so yeartodate the question for investors, you put money in this stock and it takes away your ability to allocate that money to another investment that may yield you a greater return would you put it in tesla or somewhere else dont ask me. He said before and i will come back in here. My mind just went blank so soefr about that here is the deal carter had the call. When it got massively oversold, when it is trading in the after market, earlier this year it went down 25 . We know how much the Analyst Community hates the stock. You have to buy this thing when it is down in the hole. Can i say one quick thing one quick thing. We have a case where now i think elon, much like the president does this massive thing, change the conversation from cash flow and solvencies to deliveries this is not what we should be talking about. Still ahead, the s p 500 closing at a new alltime high today. The chart master says theres one stock sitting at the bull run about to come back to life he will tell us what it is plus, fast food on fire this year as mcdonalds ar starbucks hit record high after record high, but one name in the group the traders are calling a no touch. Live from times square in new york, we are fast money. Hit record high after record high, but one name in the Group Welcome back to fast money the s p 500 closing at a record high for the second straight day. Reads, utilities and communication stocks leading the markets, up 1 or more for the session. The new highs come as we officially enter the longest period of economic expansion in u. S. History but the chart master says one stock sat out the bull run that is about to break out. Carter, why dont you show us where youre looking at. The mighty Goldman Sachs if one can imagine this, has produced negative returns since the markets peak, the prior bull market high and it looks like it is coming to life. It is a dow component and i think the think to do is be long here is a start date it was a thursday. We know it was october 11, 2007, when we had our financial crisis and our bear market. S p 500 drops 50 and from that day to present, this is what one has an an investment experience being in the market versus goldman and thats pretty darn bad. The issue is maybe something about to change. Lets move on to the next slide and take a few charts and figure out what we can figure out another way. That comparative chart, another way to do it is to do it relative chart now you have goldman on top, same starting day and now i have relative performance to the s p. Basically goldman is right at its 09 financial crisis low relative performance it is quite remarkable and yet it is holding. Lets go forward one more and zero in on this. So here it is now on a oneyear basis. What appeals to me is that were trying to fight here and trying to put in something of a relative bottom. Now, this is relative to the s p. Watch relative to its peer group, the S P Investment bank and brokerage. Much better. Compared to Morgan Stanley which is more rate sensitive and other stocks in the basket, goldman is coming to life and thats appealing. A few more and then im done now, this is on a longerterm basis, the relative performance to the peer group. I think you can draw the line several different ways watch what comes next. One way to do it i