All coming after the markets are coming off a very strong month of june. For the dow, it was the best june performance in over 80 years. You have to go back to 1938 for the month. The dow was up by 7. 2 s p was up by 6. 9 for the month that is its best performance since 1955 and the nasdaq was up by 6. 9 and thats its best performance since the year 2000. Taking a look at what happened overnight in asia, hong kong was closed for a Public Holiday but those markets that were open also up very sharply on again, this idea that trade talks are back on. The nikkei was up by 2. 1 . Shanghai composite up by 2. 25 europe this morning where early trading is taking place, youre going to see green arrows across the board there as well. Biggest gainer looks like the dx ax up by 1. 25 finally check out u. S. Treasury yields on friday we actually fell below 2 for the tenyear briefly. I think we closed right at 2. 0 . Ten year is yielding 2. 01 . Getting to all the weekend news President Trump returning home from that eventful three days in asia easing some political tensions, making history, little bit of controversy, and giving the bull run of bull market, another leg at least it looks that way kayla joins us this morning. She is in washington, back from the trip itself. Good morning. Good morning, andrew. It was a day taunt on two fronts a lastminute meeting with kim jongun lasting one hour and resulting in an agreement to restart negotiations that abruptly ended in hanoi in february after a handshake, mr. Trump became the first sitting president to set foot in north korea. The relationship that we developed has meant so much to so many people its an honor to be with you i was proud to step over the line i thought you might do that. I wasnt sure, but i was ready to do it i want to thank you. Its been great. Its been great. Very good start. Reporter chinas president xi jinping visited chairman kim earlier in the week before sitting down with trump at the g20, a meeting itself that produced its own temporary cease fire on trade. We will be continuing to negotiate and i promised that for at least the time being were not going to be lifting tariffs on china were going to work with china on where we left off to see if we can make a deal. As part of this truce, china will buy more Farm Products from the u. S. And washington will grant huawei licenses to do business in the u. S. No new tariffs will come on but all tariffs that are currently in place will stay commerce secretary wilbur ross told me the huawei licenses will be approved very soon and that the truce will last for as long as talks are going well. President trump, andrew, says he is not rushed on china and also says that north korea negotiations could restart in the next two to three weeks. Kayla, lets talk about the huawei situation because it affects so many different u. S. Suppliers to huawei, big tech companies, of course, micron, qualcomms and chip makers of the world and the googles of the world providing android operating system to it obviously for many, many months now the president said it is a National Security threat, appears to no longer be a security threat. Did that change . Is there Something Else to this . Larry kidlow said all the specifics hadnt been disclosed or worked snout is there Something Else well learn the administration is trying to talk ability in a temporary way, andrew. Were not going to deal with huawei until the very end of these negotiations and seems these licenses are a way to sort of have their cake and eat it too. They can allow huawei to do business and offer that to china as a sign of good faith in these negotiations while still reserving the right to keep these restrictions on huawei long term. It will stay on the blacklist. They are running into opposition from capitol hill. Senator marco rubio tweeted yesterday that congress would put new restrictions on Companies Like huawei and zte if the the administration is going to roll them back. He says the senate has a veto proof majority on this and will see whether any of those efforts come to fruition in the meantime i think part of it also has to do with the different branchs of huawei, is there a way to kind of split the difference and say, okay, you can continue to do things when its for consumers, when its for hand sets for mobile phones. Right. But it may be a different situation when youre talking about more of the Sophisticated Telecom equipment thats used to put together 5g networks and thing. Even on that front, becky, there has been some concern within the administration some Rural Networks in wyoming and the Pacific Northwest have already made purchases of these huawei parts for their Broadband Networks and want to make sure that Rural America can get access to this internet using the affordable parts they have already bought so i know that theres some hand ringing over that as well and maybe theres a way to solve this where you say any business thats been done in the past can still go forward, anything from here on out cannot but again, a lot of those details were still waiting to here. Something worth paying attention to in the markets today because the different chip makers manufacture for different parts of this. Qualcomm is a big chip maker for the consumer hand sets you have other companies that make some of these other parts it will be something to watch in the markets as it plays out today, too. Walk us through a little bit of callender now how these negotiations can play out, how does this work what are the permutations . Well, the president says hes in no rush and we dont know exactly when this next round of negotiations will take place we know this truce is open ended. That was something that his top trade official Robert Lighthizer had been pushing for he didnt want to be ham strung by artificial deadlines here the expectation when talks broke down before was that the u. S. Delegation would be traveling to beijing next china places a lot of significance on these talks being equitable, the same number of negotiations on either side so, the ball is in the u. S. s court to go to beijing to hold the next round of negotiations we dont know exactly when that would take place, but thats the next thing were watching for. Kayla, welcome back. Thank you. Great reporting thank you. Opec ministers meanwhile are in vienna gathering again. For everybody, pretty good gig, you know what i mean nice place. Not meeting in siberia or something. Crude oil prices have been ticking higher on expectations that production cuts will be extended todays meeting will be followed tomorrow by a meeting with nonopec states and Brian Sullivan, he loves it there, will always have vienna, brian and i. He will join us later this hour. We met up there. I was going to say thats where you had drinks didnt you meet in london with him, too no. That was Ross Westgate we met with i remember a picture of you and brian. That was in vienna. Yes will has been my social coordinator for london this time around were going soon my daughter is there any way. She went to stonehenge. Did she really . Yeah. Said it was very metaphysical and she went to be an anthropologie major there. Andrew, its interesting listen talk to me socially lets go, come on, gid were a team were a morning team. Elsewhere, violent clashes erupted in hong con on the 22nd anniversary of the former colonies handover from britain to china we have to actually tell eunice about this since shes not being able to see it on one side of town, young protesters surrounded the Legislative Council fighting with riot police using a metal card and a rod as a battering ram to smash a glass window. Elsewhere, peaceful demonstrators marched against the controversial china extradition bill calling for greater democracy. Thats weeks in the making we have continued to watch these protests. Did you check boeing . I havent checked to see whats take a look this morning, dow is indicated up by 271 points. Obviously trade deal would be good for boeing, too but at the same time, there are more problems for the company. The Justice Department was already probing the development and certification of the 737 max. Now reports say federal prosecutors have subpoenae records related to the companys 787 dreamliner well talk much more about the extended probe a little later this hour with phil lebeau also with the boeing analyst and can see boeing shares are up about. 5 . Trade stuff and facebook is going to start banning ads that discourage people from voting. This ahead of the 2020 president ial election. This was announced as part of facebooks Second Annual civil rights Audit Company says the new dont vote policy will only likely apply in the u. S. And wont include policing users posts. Last year facebook expanded its policies against Voter Suppression and banned posts that spread misinformation on election dates, times and polling places i find this one kind of weird. I think the ones that say dont vote someone is saying i dont know i want everybody to vote if possible, right . You would want to encourage voting the idea if i put up a post that says, you know what, i dont like any of the candidates im not voting and neither should you. Its just ads, right in theyre not going to accept money from advertisements saying this is out there. I dont think theyre going to silence people from expressing their opinions. What if you were you have a First Amendment right technically. They dont have to accept your ad if they say, hey, you have one candidate on one side i dont like and dont like the other candidate, im not voting and neither should you. I think youre okay saying that its just a question of running it as an ad and target very specific individuals to maybe target areas and types of voters that you would like to keep from voting thats my understanding, at least. Thats interesting. Okay coming up when we return, the first half of the year it is officially in the books and it was a strong one thanks to a big june of course for the bulls well get you ready for the second half. We have a play book right here for you as we head to a break. Here is a look at the biggest premarket winners and losers in the dow. You should be mad at airports. Excuse me, where is gate 87 . You should be mad at nonseasoned travelers. And they took my toothpaste away. And you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. How dare you, hes my emotional support snake. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade its a paste. Its not liquid or a gel. And even explore whatif scenarios. Wheres gate 87 . Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. First half of the year is officially now in the books and the bulls are off to a strong start. The s p has now gained more than 17 so far in 2019, best first half in more than 20 years the dow logging 7 rise in june. That is its best june gain since 1938 intto talk more about the potential Market Drivers in the second of the year for our play book joining us right now is gene goldman chief Investment Officer and also Steven Whiting is here. The china trade talks are now back on. I assume thats going to give us a little bit of a leg, at least it looks like this morning its going to how does that change the dynamic for you . Well, look, resisting export bans was the incremental news beyond restarting the talks with china. I assume that were going to have friction again probably with the european union, which will bring this stuff all back again. But i think most importantly this was set up to be a good year, a doover year because we have the very sharp valuation contraction last year. And the Federal Reserve is in a completely different track than it was last year the economy is unfolding almost identical to their forecast last year, but instead of continuous tightening it looks like were set at least for a modest easing. I want to get to the fed in one second on china, the one thing i cant understand about all this is i imagine we will have a nice little bounce today, if not longer than that but at some point if you think that these talks are back on, that means that were going to have to talk again and were going to have to negotiate again and do you remember when we used to talk about the fed kicking the can. We just kicked the can and we have to deal with the can at some point, i would think. No, gene i totally agree with you. I think if you if you look at our market our new Market Outlook talks about three things, calling it mixed signals. The markets and the economy are giving us a lot of mixed signals, whether its china, domestic economy number one, Economic Data is starting to cool but at the same time were still very expansion nar. Number two, Earnings Growth could weaken within the earnings recession this quarter and potentially next quarter and, three, youre seeing the bond market, im surprised it was a lack of follow through on bond yields today the bond market we have an inverted yield curve suggesting weaker growth down the road yet high yield markets are widening a little bit but pricing in really good news all of this is going to create a lot of market volatility especially to your question, andrew, especially with china, we get news out, china the devil is in the details. We told you many times on the show, we truly believe the u. S. Will win this trade war with china. Gene, here is the question i have, you think theres overconfidence about the fed and the potential for rate cuts this year definitely. Especially for july. Right now theres 100 chance the fed is going to cut rates on july 31st. Think of how many data points we have between now and then, payroll, ism, we have Second Quarter gdp on july 26th lots of data coming. We think a better Case Scenario is maybe september, 25 basis points then. Its all very, very data dependent and if the trade war does get resolved sooner rather than later, it could be a boost to the overall economy. By the way, if we get a true truce from china, the fed may not want to move as quickly. And therefore you have this sort of perverse is good news bad news, is bad news good news . Sure. In the event the economy finds some strengthening here and our trade issues are put behind us and the Federal Reserve then does not cut, i would certainly take that. And i think that we will see corporate earnings in the United States in the quarter just past and the rest of the year rise some we could derail that if we had a serious worsening of trade issues around the world. If we dont, then i would take that as a positive, right . So you know look, i think the market was in a much better position to buy earlier in the year than it was at this level, grant you that very much. But you think the fed is moving this next month it is very hard, i think, for the Federal Reserve to have this much of an expectation of easing in the market for powell to have encouraged that so much at the last meeting and not follow through. It will damage financial markets. How much has to do with the jobs market on friday . If the jobs is 300,000, some number that tells you 75 was absurd and you put all the other signs of a modest slow down behind you, then its possible that markets will price in nothing and the fed does nothing, but thats its improbable okay. We have to leave. We get a strong friday jobs report, the market may actually come down . I think if the number is very strong and you price out the fed, youll have a very different competition of the market youll see intersensitive stocks defensives really hit hard in that event. Okay. Just so were clear, youre calling for the rest of the year you think were as high as we are going to be . I think that well make modest progress from here in shares. Gene . My number one prediction my only guarantee for this year is volatility will increase lot of head winds in the market. Lot of tail winds in the market. As investors grapple with, well see a lot of volatility. What pricing in the market after the dovish fed, after the trade war resolution as you mentioned earlier, best june since 1938. Markets are looking for something Going Forward and whats coming up next . Were watching expect a big increase in volatility volatility will be big. Gene, thanks for waking up early on the west coast. Stephen, thank you for coming in this morning. My pleasure. When we return, a new read on how americans are spending their money. We have the results from our exclusive survey right after this break right now, though, take a look at the price of bitcoin climbing back near 11,000. Prices plum meted last week after hitting a 17 month high above 13,000 this is hal. This is his family, the world hes built, for 72 years. This is hals heart. Its been torn. Broken. And put back together. This is also hals heart. This is the cardiologist his brother recommended. And this is hals relief, knowing hes covered. This is hal. His heart and memory keeper, and its beating better than ever. This is what medicare from Blue Cross Blue Shield does for hal. And with easy access to quality healthcare, imagine what we can do for you. This is medicare that cares back. This is the benefit of blue. Lower carbs. Lower calories. Higher expectations. The light beer youve been waiting for has arrived. Corona premier. Cnbc and acorns are out with a new invest in you Spending Survey in partnership with survey monkey. So how americans spending . Kate rogers is here to tell us more good morning. Our invest in you survey finds that one third of americans say theyve cut their monthly spending in the past year while 45 say theyve kept spending about the same and one fifth say they have increased their monthly spend in the past 12 months why are so americans cutting back tak