Shame on you second, it was a wild ride the dow finishing up and then finishing lower, all this because of what else, the federal reserve, fed chair Jerome Powell and other officials tempering hopes of a rate cut dow and s p posted their worst days of the month. It was the nasdaq, some of your favorite tech stocks took the brunt of the beating the faang, bit microsoft, alphabet, down 3 facebook off 2 . You get the picture. Guy adami. Yes, sir. Fracas, fracas, what do we make of what the action was today . Is that how sensitive this market is to the fed thats the refor t rhetorica question the fact that we get to 2950 again and again and fail, i think it is problematic. We do it when the vix gets down to 15, pete can speak to that, levels where the last six to eight months the market has topped out i think the market is overestimating the power of the fed. I think unless we get a trade deal, which i dont think were going to get, i think we roll offer at these levels. You just gave a lot of numbers. Talking about the fed, it also thats what we do here, brian. It sounded like youre also saying that it is not just the fed. Technicals are playing some kind of a role. I think you have to take them into consideration this was a level that we topped out at in the fall, retested it, topped out again when the vix gets down to these levels, it has been a level with a Broader Market sells off from. The russell hasnt backed up this move to the upside. The transports havent backed up this move to the upside. Gold continues to rally. All those things to me are warning signs. Tom what do you think yes, the bottom line is you got a dynamic worthy expectation for the fed. I think guy framed it well it is not that the fed is not all powerful it is completely the opposite. They are everything right now. When i hear bob kaplan put out a paper talking about the limitations of monetary policy, when i hear powell step back a little bit, i think he did what he should have done when it looked like the fed gave us more than we could have possibly expected the bottom line is i dont think that will help this economy. I think that getting too neutral and staying there on the fed is very important the most important thing right now remains what were seeing on macro data look around the world over the last couple of days, hasnt been good hong kong trade data not so good French Business confidence not so good. You name it, bond yields, thats what you should listen to. Having said all that, people want to look at double tops and this and that. And i dont i actually think technicals are very important. I think this is all about the fed right now. I totally agree at this point we have got four fed cuts priced in by april next year until today people pricing in 50 basis points at the july meeting. What justifies that . Even if we had soft Consumer Confidence data today, even if we had squishy housing data today, the inflation number is not that far below the feds 2 target we know it is a volatile series. Theyre letting us know theyll probably give us 25 basis point cut in july, probably, not even guaranteed probably because last week Steve Liesman survey showed 100 , thats all the percent, of people surveyed, said were going to get a rate cut and whenever there is 100 certainty on something, maybe dont want to be certain, it sounds like you think there is a chance we wont get a cut. Look, if you have we have a lot of data next week, next week will get interesting again. Well have the g20 outcome, whatever that is, but then a nonfarm payroll report on a friday, after the fourth of july. Opec opec, we have got Manufacturing Confidence coming out next week. There is a lot to chew on and earnings season will come up again. On a short week with low volume. Right. Well be doing fast money that friday, july 5th, i bring that up, i will be here. Just to be clear pretty exciting to be here. Im very excited, pete. Five guys that hi, how are you thanks for doing your job thanks for doing your job. Great day to be here. Without that liquidity, with the jobs number, with the fed in focus, there is a lot we need to digest as investors. I pulled that back for you you appreciate that. Great to have rebecca on the desk for many reasons. Ill push back a little bit i get it here is the thing, pete, will do this tomorrow on the 5 00 a. M. Show joining us, Worldwide Exchange if it was just our fed, why is china up, why is germany up, why is brazil up, why is gold up, why is bitcoin up . A little bit of everything, right . Everything is up and were all wondering why, especially when youre seeing weakness around the globe for the most part. A great question i think what were seeing today, not that were not going to get cut, i still think 100 is pretty close to what i would put it at. Somewhere very close to 100 a cut. 100 these guys have basically trump has to put it out there, were getting a cut. I dont think it is 50 i think it is a quarter. So thats the one difference i think today that was the ship. The ship was lets step back for one second right. Where we down a lot today . Were you just scared to death today when youre looking at the market because we went down 150 points virtually right off record highs. Absolutely not this right now is fed driven, and everybody is also looking g20, everybody wants to know is there going to be any progress with xi. There is a couple of other things i know you guys keep saying, everything is the fed. It is not everything it is not everything trade is still to me much bigger than the fed. I think red is more powerful than green sort of from a narrative perspective sometimes. But we are but we are in the middle of our best june in 70 years. 1955. Were down 100 points or so off the high. Holy smokes, thats really terrible. This has been a pretty spectacular month for equity if we get up, if we move up every day, shouldnt that thats when we should be nervous. Absolutely. We had a huge rally in june coming off of may. Low yields have helped that. People are expecting better numbers out of housing and other Interest Rate sensitive sectors. The housing data today gave people a little bit of pause around that story. I think the consumer is important from that number today is the jobs, plentiful, hard to get. That little number inside that data point softened quite a bit. And thats important because it is another data point to put together with payrolls just to make us say, okay, we need to keep a close eye on the labor Market Manufacturing soft, we understand that. If the Service Sector and the consumer gets soft as well, then we have a problem. And really quick, i think it is important because if you look at where were starting to see deterioration of labor in the European Union, the feds comments on inflation, they have to where they were getting some pressure was from wages and thats disappeared as well so interesting, i mean, im with pete, i think the g20 is really important i think china trade deal is really important i dont think it is going to happen i think were getting strung along and quite frankly if i were the chinese, i would do the same thing if you want to take a step back and view it from the prism they look through in terms of the fed, the president talks about all the time, this is the greatest economy in the history of the republic he said not my words, maybe it is i dont know im not an economist if that is the case, why are we even contemplating forget about 50 basis point hes trying to neutralize it against the rest of the world. Because the ecb and super mario draghi have hit us over the head that they will either, a, be cutting, b, bond buying, or, c, all of the above. What were seeing here trump has been mad about currency issues and his whole point is i think your point is correct, your point is correct, which is you got to balance it out. If theyre going to cut but why you dont want to see the dollar get stronger. Of course you do. You buy things he buys things pete buys things. I know i buy things. But our administration for years it is a stronger dollar policy. The madness is if everybody is driving themselves into the gutter, why follow them . This is an opportunity to strengthen our underlying economy. Might be painful for the market but wond irferful for the econo. Hes got an eagle on his shoulder might be a pigeon. Rebecca, here is is the thing, i want to expand it, we talked about technology, faang stocks, bit, all this stuff. What does google have to do with the fed . What does microsoft have to do with the fed they were down 2 and 3 today i understand our broader perspective. What does alphabet care about Interest Rates you know, i know this show is fast money, so were talking about what is happening now, but i would take a step back from this and say if you think were going to continue to look for companies that can grow organically, if the trade war, Global Growth slows further, i Want Companies doing something interesting, biotech, technology, that can grow on their own. And so i say if you have a day like this, youre probably looking at an opportunity. I got you just made im going to drop some genius on this show. Youre welcome, producers. We need a segment on this show called pump the brakes where once a segment, people like rebecca come in with wisdom, and they slow it down a little bit pump the brakes. Slow it down too much. What were the brakes like on your iroc z. New cars, you put your foot on the brakes, they in the old days hes a car guy. Can we go ahead, im sorry. When hes not in an uber, hes being driven around in a limo it is not all bad despite the trade fight, m micr reporting earnings to josh lipton with more micron had been hit hard, the stock was down since the intraday high heading into this printed, primary reason was huawei and fallout from the Trump Administration black listing that tech giant. It is important micron customer makes up about 13 of their revenue. Right off the top of that call, quickly the ceo addressed that concern. Take a listen to what he told analysts. Micron immediately suspended shipments to huawei and began the view of micron products sold to huawei to determine whether theyre subject to the import restrictions we determined that we could lawfully resume shipping a subset of current products we started shipping some orders of those products to huawei in the last two weeks however, there is considerable ongoing uncertainty surrounding the huawei situation and were unable to predict the volumes or time periods over which well be able to ship products to huawei. So pretty interesting, the ceo saying we reviewed the export ban and found we could lawfully resume shipping some products to huawei though he also said, listen, if huawei remains on this export ban, this black list and fiscal 2020, there would be an impact, hes telling analysts. More fundamentally hes saying 2019, challenging year for micron and the markets that they serve, near term, some uncertainty. Also said they are seeing these early signs of demand improvement. As for the outlook, q4, looking for 45 cents on 4. 5 billion and you can see the stock moving sharply higher now in the after hours. Josh, thank you very much. Here is the thing, micron is micron is still down 40 over 12 months up 9 or 10 in the after hours. Are you a believer in micron, short bounce after hours and what has been a depressed and depressing story for the better part of a year within the chip space, there is a lot of different discussions about micron and how commoditized they are, what is going on with dram, some of the core part of the business. Relative to the s p, down 45 year over year this move and this pop after the bell, an exaltation to my right, i believe, someone is happy about it, i think the bottom line here is this is about expectations these guys, first of all, they came in, they beat, they guided better, the expectations are these guys are in for a long winter in the middle of the summer and thats not whats happening. It is a stock that the average 27 analysts covered. The average rating i buy with a price target under 42. Ten bucks above this is a stock that gets too cheap. But there is still an opportunity where you got to wait and wait for that opportunity to present itself. Now that time it recently had i bought the stock not that long ago. It was virtually based upon the options coming in, looking ahead, and trying to read through all the tea leaves, the information, some not so good. This was an unbelievable report. That was crushing of the earnings that was a nice beat on the revenues like tim said, you start to put out more guidance and it is still murky. There is still issues with huawei these numbers, brian, were pretty phenomenal. If they can even get close to these numbers that theyre projecting going forward, look at what the pe is, look at this company and the potential that exists there i own stock, i sell calls. Thats what this stock is made for because we talk about applied volatility all the time and guy referred to me a little while ago talking about the vix, the vix is low lets just talk about it the vix is low at 15 implied volatility of the faang stocks is very high. Which gives you that opportunity. If you own facebook, sell calls against it you own any of the faang stocks right now, you have great implied volatilities there where you can sell against it. Micron is not a faang stock, but that fit in as well where youre getting dollars in premium to be able to sell upside against a long position in the stock. Rebecca, the fact that the vix is at 15, given that tankers are being blown up in the straits of hormuz, the rhetoric has gone up, we have g20, the trade fight, the potential for brexit and yet vix is at 15. Because of Central Banks. Because of mr. Draghi, because of mr. Powell, because of the market has a bodyguard. It believes in that the question i have is do they believe in it too much i do think well get easing, especially if the Global Economy softens further and inflation is still low. But it is so priced in you have so much easing already priced in. This weekend, well have an eu meeting, European Union meeting, theyll talk about draghis successor. What if we get jan heideman coming in. Whos that . Janes heideman looking to do draghi this is why shes here. Because draghi was the hawkish one across the European Union that wasnt giving the ecb any room to angle. The ecb according to many people saved europe from itself this is not a black swan, maybe a black forest event oh. See what i did there . These are the kind of things we need to watch for. This matters. It does matter. Even if you do own u. S. Stocks this matters. If you see europe going down, it is going to hurt the multinationals. Shes spot on im so happy shes here. Quick, back to micron, pete is right, they beat revenue and they beat on eps and margins were better. Those three things are great this is why valuation does matter revenue, dram revenue 64 of overall revenue, down 45 year over year. 45 year over year thats pretty devastating. But the question is, is it reflected in the price of 32 . And this quarter it appears as though thats the case i dont think it is going back to 45. I think you can make a cogent argument it rallies another 10 or so from where it is. All semis or micron. This is micron. Micron specifically. We showed you, some semiconductors can maybe jump on this. Im sure if i looked right now, i havent looked, im sure intel is higher, knee jerk reaction, this, to me, is a very micron specific report okay. Now, a fast look at other earnings, movers, as we head to break. Fedex higher off its numbers Conference Call in the next 15 minutes or so. The company last night announcing a lawsuit against the United States over handling of huawei the latest plus, oil at the helm of geopolitical tensions. One talk energy watcher says a key Event Next Week could send the commodity surging. Mike bradley is here and biotech m a heating up pete says there is one name in the space that could be the next breakout stock hell give you his fast pitch. Were live as always from times square much more fast right after this al hi everyone al roker here. As a guy with his own catchphrase, i appreciate that after 75 years smokeys only said. Smokey bear only you can prevent wildfires. Al but, im filling in because theres a lot more to report like when there are parched or windy conditions out there, you gotta be extra careful with things like burning yard waste. After all, wildfires can start anywhere, even in your neck of the woods. Go to smokeybear. Com to learn more about wildfire prevention. Xfinity mobile is a designed to save you money. 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And the brand and technology and key oftens kiosks and the quality of the food, multiple, demanding to itself, not demanding to its peer group and you look at chipotle, which, to me, trades at an absurd valuation. It is important to bring it up over and over again. To me, sometimes the valuations of the company and the margin base and the direction of the Management Team is where it is supposed to be it is going higher shake shack another one that Credit Suisse initiated, 77 price target thats probably trading close to if not more than 100 times forward earnings but maybe the growth rate justifies it and so we have talked about actually i worked there one day, you may remember it was a great day for me, i think there is a real chance every have you worked at every dominos. At the hut . Pizza the hut. And this was research this was research i did a great j