The same as wall street saw the two previous market peaks, september and may. The pricetoearnings ratio below 17 for the next 12 months. Right now ahead of what could be a couple of fed rate cuts and a trade deal still in the works with china, is the market still a value trade or a value trap . Who is that dion warwick it is dionne warwick. Like that wasnt on in your car on the way over. I love that sothebys stuff. Deja vu my voice, i apologize to the people at home i know you think you know me, and you say, absolutely, value trapped in terms of the s p and you know what, mel youd be wrong wrong wrong, i think its a value trade. I think its 17 times for ward earnings and in this low Interest Rate environment the market is not expensive and it will not sell off because because of other reasons and theyre right at the top and the fact that maybe the fed will disappoint or maybe there is no china deal or maybe this situation with iran gets worse and the mark has a lot of reason to sell off and valuation, the s p 500. Lets go to the value queen youd think i would say its a value trade and i feel like its a value trap in that upside down. I can see a little bit of a case for value trade if you would say rates are much higher because rates are much higher the multiples are lower and thats reasonable and however, i am concerned about the trade issue and i am also concerned about it taking a much longer time and in that waiting period, assuming we even get to a deal, but in that waiting period that people are just more concerned. Ceos are more concerned and spending slows down and were going to start to see, maybe in july well start to see the banks. Im concerned about earnings losing some of the momentum that they have earlier in the year. So im concerned i get the argument that with Interest Rates low, that allows for a pe to be higher than maybe one would expect at this jufrnthure in time and the reason why Interest Rates are low because of slowing growth, how do you account for that . Its important to go back to. In about a day or two i would be focused on the fed the last time we saw the fed go from hiking to cutting was 1998. It was to avert a crisis here in the u. S. And it was that sharns c insurance cut in 1998 and we had the asian credit crisis and longterm capital. We dont have a crises right now. So the fact of the matter is weve had rate comes in which is making equities look more attractive and theyre coming in for the reasons that were worried about with Slower Growth and when we talk about the s p 500, the earnings part of that is really, really important here so if we dont have visibility on corporate earnings and we do not right now, then i would say it is a value trap at this moment given all the uncertainty because we dont want a surprise rate cut you may get a pop because shorts are going to cover and it will bust this market out in the 18month range and its failed in a meaningful fashion and to me i dont want see the inside outside trade. If i would go with the trade as well because i agree with you and when you have the opportunity to protect your portfolio on top of that in a very inexpensive as karen talked about last week, and volatility trading in the 15 16 its a great opportunity there are so many different values, mel, out there right now. The opportunities grow every single day look a couple of weeks ago, look at the fanfare and the panic about facebook and look at the panic about different names and there are names out there that still have opportunities to the upside obviously, it is a stock pickers world which i love. I would love to be in the stock pickers world and there are great opportunities in almost every single day and look at the housing names and the explosive move to that upside when everybody said they cant and you look at a lot of different areas and there are areas right now, and i look at the airlines, for instance, and there are many names where i think there is opportunity there because oil and the prices and the jet fuel is not as big of a deal right now and i dont think in terms of the valuation levels of where they are they have Pricing Power right now and i think thats very important. Having said that, the market overall is a value trap where youre finding value in the market a lot of stuff that we have, and i have airlines number one and they have Lower Oil Prices and jet fuel and thats a lot of the costs there. I like the banks and im still long the banks and clearly a lowrate environment and thats okay and a boom to the Housing Market and thats good for bank, as well so im long that, and then i like sort of idiosyncratic. We saw Something Like red robin and the deal stuff and thats interesting to me where we talk about the market risk and exchange that for specific deal risk. Theres been a lot of crowding you say youre a stock picker and i know youve been all over microsoft and a sales force and whenever they come in theyre strong and another area where theres a huge secular shift is the aggregation of content so weve been talking a lot about disney and disney at 140, and its one of those ones where i think it comes back to the breakout and thats a stock that you want to buy and some of the names that we want to talk about for a while here and the drivers are not being appreciated right now and you might have that aha moment with a disney so to me, i think you want to find some stuff leak that that resembles some of the stuff where the industry is moving in that direction has disney gone too fast . I look at it and i feel like it has the stock has gone too fast. Its been an absolute great move, and we dont need to go over that. Its been very rapid to where it is right now i think for the right reasons. My point, this is the end are sort of market that you want to do the pull back, did you see it going up, and i think you want to look for some of those names and you may want to buy it on a pullback only with the downgrade, only down per a per sfrnt, and its, troerd nair he well and even pt pruter market sell off will wail woods very start it i dont know roll some downgrades today. That doesnt auger particularly well for the bellwether for the broader economy. In terms of your question, gold miners continue to trade really well Newmont Mining up 0. 8 today on a day when gold really did nothing. I just want to follow up because we have a couple of charts and this was a name that got hit really hard when we had the mexican tariff bluff and the stock got hit and it came all of the way back after the president caved on that one, but look at this thing its starting to move lower and i think thats really an important point that guy just made you want to look at some of these names that should be performing better. I think you keep saying and we did have the 102 we did have the curve steepen and now theyve come all of the way back and to me that doesnt reinforce some sort of underlying strength with the homebuilders. You think the banks are a value trap yes lets see if we can say that for the next 18 months and theyve literally not made a new high the s p has made two new highs since january 2018, so to me, i dont know why thats an area where youd want to be in. I own the bank, but i would say youre probably right. It has been a value trap how doey woo deny it has been . Weve been waiting for the move that you would the dividend yield that you get and you use options and karen is doing this, as well and youre selling options against a position, even though the stocks arent performing you can outperform the market by an additional in the preview ask sucking in the premiums and it has been a trap for now, ill do the s p 500 very easily with those dividends on top. I just want to make a point, look at visa, American Express the xlf, it has arent gotten within 6, 7, 8 . I dont think thats true its true. No. I dont think thats true, j. P. Morgan the totality of the xlf. The totality. I like when they bicker i like when they split them up its just she immediately goes back to j. P. Morgan, you know what i mean yes. Obviously, j. P. Morgan has acted very well and it doesnt act well nows and the leader of the group and look at the xlf. Theyve split dan and pete and its supposed no more fighting. I do own mastercard, by the way. Congratulations. Thank you its been a long time. Our next guest says if youre looking for value in the market there sea one classic group of safety trades about to shine carter is at the plasma. Hi, guys, happy monday and theres a lot going on, of course, in the world of Precious Metals and alternatives like that there are a lot of dedicated etfs to gold, silver, some are triple witch leverage and so forth and its totality, the etfs have been net buyers of gold and net sellers of silver. We know year to date one is up 4. 5 and one is down 4. 5 and long term its fairly epic, and i think thats an opportunity for the laggard silver working through some of the numbers. Gold prices relative to silver at 26year highs this is the sort of gold silver ratio. Its right now above 90. How much does it take to purchase one ounce of gold and take a look at the following this is the gold silver ratio going back to 1960 and every one of these peaks when we have gotten to a certain level we have pulled back quite dramatically does this have to be a peak . Thats the judgment part i think that it is let me show you every other time when it peaked and then started to come off. In terms of performance, silver six months later and one year. Absolute these are the absolute dates of those peaks and what silver did, not relative, just outright performance, six months later, one year later and this is indeed another peak in the gold silver ratio, it would be by all accounts to buy silver who has lagged at 26year lows relative to gold its just over 90, several days to draw the line, you can only go so far back, and theed abouts like, youre not afraid to look at it, same, exact timeframe it is literally, youve been going from the bottom, to the top, top, top we reached a point for all of the reasons discussed so far that this is likely at a peak and when one wants to buy silver, it doesnt mean that both cant go up, the gold silver ratio at a peak and thats the judgment. So lets talk about one of the more exciting things bitcoin. And this has been a big thing year to date and what we know is theres a lot of standoff and i want to show you this setup here and take a look at some lines. Here we go ready . T has it broken above the downtrend line of course, it does lets put in the bottom line is it a wedge from which it just broke out . Thats fairly clear, too short term and with this, look at this chart and what weve got here is this and then a consolidation. This and a consolidation thats just breaking out so were back to the days of the bitcoin bug, perhaps. I think the important thing is not about how high it can go, and its that the lows of december are likely to stay as important lows and if this is an enduring thing to be played on the long side. Carter, why dont you come on over weve got lots of questions here he works that machine ever. Jonah, come on can we give my man, jonah. How great is jonah fantastic we do have the bitcoin bug up just in case you didnt notice carter, i read today that one bitcoin strategist type person said there is a nearperfect negative correlation between bitcoin and the s p 500 since may and that happened to be when china decided to raise tariffs on the united states, and im wondering from your standpoint, from a technical standpoint is there any sort of inverse correlation to the markets the thing about correlations, as you know, is theyre enduring until theyre not. They have duration and for certain, lets take oil and there have been times when oil are very, very strong and yet the transports are doing well and that shouldnt be the case and sometimes its also with all commodities and theyre moving in a certain direction it doesnt matter what the currency will do and it means the corner will move up. Its in effect sometimes not the bitcoin goes hire the temptation with caller level, who knows the point is it bottomed in december when everything bottomed and it also is gapping of late which is fairly rare and it hasnt had a lot of gap and something that trades 24 7 is very likely to have a gap and its got two gaps this year and thats a very bullish and aggressive thing it reflects insensitivity to price where people are paying almost anything to get in. Do you have any kind of volume overlay there that. Not so much as the setup is so remarkable and people who are dealing with pencil and paper talked about wedges going back 150 years and theres a perfect wedge and it broke out. Its kind of nice. Im going ask you to take your technician hat off for a moment, carter are you surprised with how well gold traded despite the fact that gold has traded well and is that a tell in your world . Thats the hope as the rate environment collapses and thats a sort of a negative for the dollar and yet the dollar is a safe haven and the state of the dollar has been fallow carter, thank you would you rather . Gold, silver or bitcoin thats a good one the gold and silver charts are constructive and the knit koin are more dangerous to me because it was at 3,000 a few months ago and people are saying it will breakout about 10,000 and i dont have a good feel for it and the chart suggests that the gold and silver are a nice uptrend and you will continue to be worried as some people at this desk are, ex, pete. I made a bunch of them. Gld has been all over the place. I know dan has seen it gld, gdx, and all of the mine names have been hitting like crazy from newmont ssrm hit the other day which ive never heard of andits another mine and its canadian and most of their assets are down here and those are all hitting and ill tell you, mel, and its been consistent and large and a lot of movement there and people are using this now again as quote, unquote, protection and well have to see and im in all those different names. All right, coming up. Fang on fire facebook and netflix, big techs and big worries behind them . The traders will weigh in plus the hot ipo market is getting hotter and one wall street strategist says if history is any indication, all of the fury can be a sign of the top and hell explain. Later, infamous tweeter and elon musk just said he is deleting his twitter account and the stock was soaring today. Is musks sporadic behavior on twitter over weve got the details. Ua, w rke live from times sqreneyo city. Much more fast money right after thisk exchan every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. Because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From finding out whats selling best. To managing your fleet. To collaborating remotely with your teams. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. Theres a reason we keep having the privacy scandals that come week after week after week and its because theres nowhere else to go just last year everyone said ill delete facebook and i cant do it anymore and how many of your friends went to instagram not realizing its the sail. That was facebook cofounder chris hughes with the vastness of the facebook empire and the threat of a potential break up, it is seemingly impenetrable, and the release of the white paper on the cryptocurrency and the move praised as a way for the social media giant to have into pages and finance bouncing back from the privacy scandal. I dont know that crypt ott is there to save facebook and as chris mentioned in that interview how many of you knew that instagram was owned by facebook theyre one of the different verticals all of the time and different ways instagram in a couple of years 30 of the revenue for facebook and are they going to split these guys up, there will be cash to be made, too, and the sum of the parts on facebook would be an astronomical number and you asked about crypto i think it could be big and the idea that at t has made it something that its not just cool for kids and its cool for other areas as well and Companies Like at t and you can pay crypto are you kidding me all of them moves them that much closer to, and that could be a vertical for them that could be big and i dont know how long that will take karen i agree with pete i am not so afraid of the idea if it were to be split up quickly and easily, that would be a big benefit to the stock. I think thats not so likely to happen and maybe it has, what . Eight points from today, its crypto, and i think the weight on the stock from the ftc situation and whatever further we dont even know and whatever further penalties they have weighs much more heavily on facebook and all of that having been said, i still like it here and its not expensive. The idea that facebook could finally potentially become a transactional platform hasnt that been the holy grail especially for core facebook which has been declined. We are misusing the term here and its about whatsapp and its about a 1. 3 billion active users on whatsapp and they bought five years ago for 20 billion and theyve not done anything with it well see, thats what im saying and its agreeing with you guys and the payment opportunity and forget using the term crypto because it is a stable coin and something that 1. 3 billion active users on whatsapp and that expands to 2 billion network wide and companies will have more reasons to be on their platform, right if people can transact easily so to me this goes straight at the heart of all that apple is trying to do with pay. Samsung is trying to do with pay and google is trying to do with wallet and the amazon pay button all over the web and this is a massively defensive thing and i think its great i dont think its just been 8 today. This stock was trading near 160 at the start of this month and its now nearly 190 and thats when they started leaking out and i think theres a lot of good news in it and i dont want expe to expect to see them for a while. Report july 24th assuming the market is benign from now until then and you can make the assumption 197 will be a huge level, but we talked about this a couple of weeks ago and we flagged that 160 level that dan just mentioned and said hey, folks, huge volume on the day and it traded down to 161 50 retracement of the december 24th low and the recent high we made after earnings and the risk reward sets up and here we are some 25, 27 later and heres the stock been get to 197 which it should and you have the alltime high on the 24th of july for more on facebook and more from its cofounder head over to cnbc. Com im melissa lee, youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im melissa lee. Heres whats coming up on fast. Im forever blowing bubbles ipo mania is heating up, but could it be a bubble thats about to burst a top strategist says yes and hell be here to explain why plus doctor, doctor, give me the news a 10 billion biotech deal has investors running to the group