but still red for each of the major indices. joining us for the full first hour of the show courtney gibson from loop capital markets. courtney, thanks for joining us. what's your take on today? investors in a sort of holding pattern, are they, until we get to the fed >> unbelievable holding pattern. i mean, volumes are down precipitously today. at least they were before i came on the show today. i talked to our equity desk at loop capital and in the u.s. alone volumes were down somewhere near 30% and even in europe spain was down i think somewhere near 40% on volumes our desk flow today was down substantially as well. it looks and feels as though investors right now are really kind of sitting on their hands >> markets as you can see, dow down just slightly but recovering back to the highs of the session. russell is lagging down 0.7% utilities, real estate the best-performing sectors. energy and tech towards the bottom we have got apple down about 0.7%, albeit higher for the week broadcom weighing on the likes of cisco and intell. let's get to the stories we're watching today josh lipton covering broadcom and the semis. leslie picker has the details on chewy. dom chu is here at the exchange with the movers on the floor kayla tausche's on washington watch with fresh comments from jamie dimon on trade but josh, let's start with you >> wilf, broadcom's ceo really bluntly laying out the issues here for investors lowering his full-year revenue outlook by 2 billion to 22.5 billion saying that trade conflict and huawei export ban is creating economic uncertainty. last year huawei generated $900 million for broadcom the stock got hammered in today's trade. what do semi investors do now? rosenblatt's hance mosesman says typically companies with new products poised to take share like amd and xilinx, he says sara, back to you. >> all right thank you, josh. another ipo surging today in its first day of trade i mentioned chewy up only, leslie picker, 55% because it was up what, more than 8 0 at the open >> it was. although it has been picking up some steam as we get closer to the close. but you're right, sara well off the highs of the day. especially as we saw when the stock began trading earlier. now chewy and its parent company petsmart raised more than a billion dollars. the largest u.s. e-commerce ipo ever they price add boff the range. they had already hiked earlier in the week on stronger than expected demand and petsmart sold about 5 million more shares than it initially intended to. so it's a quick buck for petsmart the pet retailer bought its e xhert counterpart just two years ago for $3.5 billion and then turned around and the company debuted today. it's now trading at quadruple that valuation, guys >> leslie, thanks very much for that we're going to discuss many ipos coming up later in the show. for a second straight week, though, we've seen gains despite the choppy market action and dom chu has taken a step away from hq and joins us from the stock exchange dom. >> let's look at how stocks are shaping up today because as you pointed out today we are near the highs of the session for the dow. the s&p and the nasdaq, although like josh said semiconductor stocks the key focus for traders. that's weighing down the nasdaq composite. very much geared more toward those chip stocks. if you take a look at the overall week, though, the sector sort of standing out right now typically are the ones geared a little bit more toward economically sensitive sectors consumer discretionary, communication services, outperformers. meanwhile, you've got semiconductors as an industry group down pretty big. energy sxinldss among the laggards in trading this week. taking a look at some of the biggest dow losers so far this week, no surprise here some of the big defense contracting names. you've got names like united technologies and also boeing leading to the down side if you take a look at some of the winners it is about home depot, some of those big ones there, and then as well walmart and walt disney. keep an eye on those shares, guys, back over to you >> dom, thank you for that we'll see you on the floor again later in the hour. meantime, jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon has made comments on trade recently kayla tausche has those details for us hey, kayla >> hey, wilf the blue chip ceo members of the business round table had been in town all week for the group's quarterly meeting and jamie dimon, ceo or the chair rather of the bids round table, ceo jpmorganchase, took a few of those executives over to the white house today and made some comments to cnbc afterward >> hello, everybody. yeah, we had a productive meeting. >> what was your message on trade? >> we'll keep that private we're in favor of getting the u. u.s.m.c.a deal done. >> a diplomatic message there from dimon earlier this week he and his counterparts at the brt had a harsh message to reporters about trade. they said the administration's policy toward mexico in the last couple weeks injected unnecessary volatility in the market and dimon said that trade going south is the biggest self-inflicted risk to growth today and they said they're going to continue to tell the white house exactly how they feel >> kayla, thank you. let's dig deeper into the chip stocks all 25 in the vanex semiconductor etf are lower today but the smh still up 17% so far this year let's bring in ed snide grer charter equity research who downgraded broadcom to market perform from buy today obviously a big disappointment, ed broadcom is getting beat up more than the rest. is broadcom hit harder by these trade issues than the other semis? >> i don't think necessarily that it is it depends on the company you're dealing with most semis have some overseas exposure broadcom does certainly. they also have exposure to huawei probably just over a billion dollars. so the reason they've got hit so hard is because they cut guidance by 2 billion. and the reason they cut guidance so severely is because they were looking at growth. and in the first quarter this year they came out of the gates booming. most analysts felt they were being overly conservative given their performance. and they and most of their customers were preparing for a better second half of the year so you're building inventory, you're selling more. as soon as huawei ban was implemented many of their customers across a broad range of industries cut back so you're going from building inventory for a stronger second half to saying this could be a weaker second half, let's burn some of that off so the change was very abrupt for them they're a very conservative company so they cut guidance i think harder than they necessarily had to they're trying to anticipate things getting worse that's why you saw the big decline in revenue guidance for the year >> ed, to that point do you think they're using the fact that the trade war is existing and elevating huawei'scentral, do you think they're using that as cover to downplay and sandbag the estimates? >> their core businesses are still doing quite well, and they're in all the right spots i'll give you a great example. they have a big chunk of semiconductors in the iphone and they won a big increase year over year on the model that's going to be released second half of the year. that hasn't changed. yet they kind of backed off that guidance because they're really worried about unit volumes if the huawei ban causes a retaliation just by domestic population in china not buying the iphone, they're going to feel it. so they're building that into the guidance i wouldn't say it's sandbagging. i would say they're being conservative expecting things might get worse and hoping they don't have to cut again if they do >> ed, who else doesn it make yu worry about in the space >> well, that is the problem because the areas they said they were weak were pretty bro broad-bas broad-based. the service providers aren't buying a lost enterprise, computer equipment you're going to see it in intel. t.i.'s going to feel it, although they did last quarter too. right now it sounds like a lot of the big semiconductor consumers out there are being cautious supposedlit end market hasn't shown a decline yet, but everybody's kind of treading lightly seeing how this trade war's going to go and what it's going to affect second half of the year if it does go south you'll see it across almost all semiconductors which is why you saw the sector sell off today. we'll have to see how it plays out. >> kourtney, is the reaction to broadcom overdone? >> most definitely but as he alluded to i believe, i'll use your word, sandbagging. i think they're trying to underpromise and ultimately overdeliver. broadcom reports later than the rest of the sector so many of the other folks had already written down the huawei exposure, et cetera. so this is the first time they've been really coming out talking about it and i do believe they are conservative and they're likely underpromising and going to overdeliver. at loop we cover the name. currently we cut price target on the name down to 310 from 315. cody acree covers them for us. but we still have a buy on it. and i do firmly believe this stock is a name you want to hold and you want to buy on the dip >> final word, ed. the group is off 17% from its highs. just how much bad news is baked in there before you want to buy? >> well, that's a very good point. our rating is good for two dwaerts and i don't think the catalysts are going to turn positive two quarters. if you're looking further out especially with a company like broadcom i agree with the buy rating this is a phenomenal company but to the point the huawei ban o'quurd midway through the quarter, so most companies have not put it into their forward guidance yet we have preannouncements when we get earnings season in july you're going to see a lot of bearish companies coming from the big guys like intel. >> ed snyder, thanks for joining us good to see you. still ahead on "the closing bell," geopolitical tensions and weak global demand leading to a volatile day for trading oil we'll discuss where crude could be going next. plus, chewy capping off a wild week for ipos here. and the action could heat up again next week. we'll look ahead to the next company waiting in the pipeline. as we head to break, here's a look at today's data tracker may retail sales coming in below estimates but the revisions were good u.s. industrial production topping expectations in may and chinese industrial production soaring to its lowest rate in more than 17 years 50 minutes till the close. dow is positive. 12 points. we'll be right back. welcome to seattle. where people are into coffee, tech, and retirement planning. the perfect retirement for me is doing the things that i want to do, not the things i have to do. unlike seattle, less than half of americans participate in their employer retirement plans. so what keeps people more engaged in their retirement? i want to have the ability to easily transact online, great selection of funds, great advice, everything in one place. helping people in their working years and beyond. that's financial wellness. talk to your employer or start a plan at prudential. dear tech, let's talk. you blaze trails... but you have the power to do so much more. let's not just develop apps, let's develop apps that help save lives. let's make open source software the standard. let's create new plastics that are highly recyclable. it's going to take input from everyone. so let's do it all, together. ♪ ♪ let's expect more from technology. let's put smart to work. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "the closing bell." we have 47 minutes left of trade. and the dow's just turned positive it's at the high of the session. only slightly lower on the s&p nasdaq sly le lower 3% let's send it to maike santoli for today's market dashboard >> the world is watching that would be the g20. at the end of this month handicap some of the moves there. shopping and dropping. maybe a look at a little bit of the haves and have nots of retail weighing the week. kind of a winners and losers offense versus defense so far in the markets this week. and then the summer. we're going to handicap what kind of market we might have in terms of volatility. the g20 is getting a lot of focus for a lot of reasons obviously we might have some kind of talks on a u.s.-china trade agreement but look at the u.s. dollar index. over the last four years what i have marked here is the dpchlt- g20 meeting in february of 2016. you had folks at b of a merrill lynch saying we might get something similar now when you have an agreement among the finance heads of a lot of these countries to have some kind of coordinated stimulus, not use currencies as a weapon, basically somewhat coordinate central bank policies, have some kind of stimulative message. the u.s. dollar index did have this downswing as risk markets got refreshed in early 2016. so it did have an effect you were lower here until of course the 2016 election got the pop. take a look atthe s&p 500 with that same time scale you had previously had this very climactic low and then you built upon that and basically it was a pretty good glide path higher for the s&p 500 there. treasury yields, a little bit of a different story. you had another situation where yields were very suppressed and here we are below 2% one more leg down and then finally you got the pop-up to normalize rates. it seems as if as the merrill folks are saying this could be some kind of a psychological or stimulative event coming toward the end of this month. we'll have to see if that works out or if expectations of something like that start to build into the market, guys. >> remember that well, mike. there was never any public recognition or admission by central bankers or finance ministers they did that kind of deal >> it's called the shanghai accord but they won't admit there was any accord >> absolutely. thank you. kourtney, president trump said this morning in an interview that it doesn't matter if xi agrees to a meeting at g20 it does seem to matter to investors. >> consumer sentiment is what drives this market right now at one point it was fundamentals around the earnings season which i would love to have come back right now trade talks with driving what's going on here the fed, honestly i feel is our friend they at least signal what they're going to do. we don't know if we're going to wake up sunday morning to a tweet. what happens at the g20 absolutely does matter and whether or not there is something positive that comes out, it will help this market at least maintain and slightly melt up as they say >> you're saying retail investors and not institutional investors at the moment. >> at loop capital we only cover institutions they're kind of sitting on their hands. maybe they're buying around the edges here a lot of the volatility in this light volume we're seeing is actually retail investors participating more than anything else i think once the institutions decide to come back in heavily, whether it's around rebalances, around the index rebalances, et cetera, you'll start to see more volume, but i don't believe this market right now is driven by larger institutions. >> all right time to get a checkup on yesterday's stock therapy. we have two movers in the b biotech space. meg tirrell has been tracking them at hblth. >> yesterday we told you about two stocks with news coming out of the medical conference. global blood therapeutics and bluebird global blood had an update on its experimental drug for sickle cell disease and the stock rallied into the news yesterday as analysts noted high expectations for a presentation at the conference. the street's take today generally positive on the update but jpmorgan notes there was no upside surprise in the data and said there could be debate about how useful the drug will prove to be in treatment of sickle cell disease on to bluebird bio, that company said the price of its gene therapy for another blood disorder, $1.8 million it's not the price that appears to have investors selling necessarily though it is generating healthy debate. but there is a later than expected launch happening for that drug in europe where it was just approved and that seems to be what folks seem to be focusing on, guys. back to you. >> $1.8 million for what for -- >> it's a one-time treatment right. for its gene therapy for beta thalicemia, a very rare blood disorder what they're saying is this could be paid over five years and when you split it up like that it doesn't look out of step with other rare disease drugs. but these new price tags for gene therapies are setting records. 2.1 million was the last 1.8 million for this one >> wow you have to hope to have good health insurance if -- >> prices can be shocking. meg, thank you we've got 42 minutes to go before the closing bell. dow has just gone positive for the first time all day high of the session is up 30 we're kind of right around there right now. s&p. we are still up for the week about half a percent for the s&p going in and things are improving heading into the close the nasdaq still down a third of a percent. remember, it's those semis weighing on technology today and concerns after broadcom cut its revenue guidance the russell 2000 index of small caps underperforming after a pretty good week itself. after the break we'll get word on the street. two big analyst calls in the media space today. >> and it's the big question on everyone's mind on wall street, what will jerome powell and the fed do nextweek? we'll debate the odds of a rate cut coming up. ♪ feel that? that's the beat of global markets, the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that, you don't chase the pace of tomorrow. you set it. nasdaq. rewrite tomorrow. that have made the rx crathe leading luxury suvogy of all time. lease the 2019 rx 350 for $399/month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. we've got just under 40 minutes until the close. market flash now on t-mobile and sprint kate rogers with the details >> this is a headline from the "new york times. the justice can department is moving closer to aproffering t-mobile's merger with sprint but only if the companies sell multiple assets to create a new wireless competitor. they're sourcing three people who are familiar with the plan both sprint and t-mobile both got a pop on this initially. they pulled back a bit sprint is holding up a bit better here. we are reaching out to both companies and the department of justice and we'll bring you any updates as we get them back over to you >> kate, thanks very much. positive headline for them this friday afternoon time for our word on the street. rosenblatt securities initiating coverage of cnbc parent company comcast with a buy rating and a $50 price target the firm says comcast has compelling risk reward and sees room for it to take a broadband market share the stock's up nearly 2% suntrust robinson humphrey downgrading the commercial aerospace sector the firm cites eroding airline profitability and weak gleobal economic data. you can see quite a few movers off the back of that >> loop capital, that would be kourtney's firm, raising its price target on disney to $165 a share from 140 the firm is bullish on disney plus, says its consumer products division has significant up side potential. yesterday here on the show we asked former disney ceo michael eisner about the streaming wars. here's what he said about the landscape right now. >> there are too many others there will be blood on the floor. it may take five years to find out who they are but right now the enthusiasm is spreading like wildfire. and a lot of people are benefiting from it and some people are worried about what will happen >> blood on the floor. he had a lot of good one-liners. kourtney, the caught here, though-s that disney will be a winner >> absolutely. disney is a winner disney will remain a winner. and i think there is a ton of up side potential everyone's talking about disney plus, which alan gould on our team, who's an incredible analyst and been at the company for years, disney plus will be big. it's not launching until november they're going to do a lot of publicity around it. think about how much disney touches the consumer and how they'll be able to go after subs it's going to be that sub number that everyone's looking at come february when they report. i think the estimates are somewhere around 10 million. we at loop capital believe they're going to blow right through it and i think the other piece folks aren't really thinking about is the merchandising so i think it's been off somewhere around $800 million over the last three years at disney but this ear, and you'll be excited because you'll be able to take the little one to the movie theaters we have "frozen 2 ka" coming oui december you have "spider-man." you have "star wars," the last of "star wars" coming out. the merchandising around that is going to be tremendous >> what about the rosenblatt upgrade on comcast you also want to have exposure to the companies that deliver the con tebt, as it were >> most definitely i think with what comcast has done, and we don't actually cover the name but what they've done with xfinity and what they've done with the onsumer, you want to have exposure to good companies with good management that are able to really be leaders in the space i definitely believe that what comcast is doing they won't be the blood on the floor they will not be the blood on the floor. we'll all make sure of that one, right? >> okay. let's move on. we have got -- we actually just hit session highs we should say, which is 44 points higher on the dow. back to 35 points higher but nevertheless we now do have two of the major indices in the green this friday afternoon. and nasdaq still in the red down 0.3% all of those indices are higher for the week coming up, it's been a wild week for ipos with fiverr and chewy all soaring on their debuts. a top venture capitalist will join us to preview what's next in the ipo pipeline. >> a ceo sounding off on mattel on clbltd clb"the closing bell. remember this? >> i hate to see it go the way toward -- i think the way they're functioning right now they are going to go into bankruptcy shortly >> we will get reaction from former toys "r" us ceo gerry storch as well as company comment from mattel we'll beig bk. rhtac 30 minutes left to go and stocks are positive. at least if you look at the s&p and the dow. just changing in the last few minutes or so. nasdaq still down a third of 1%. here are the three things driving the action right now broadcom is driving down technology and chip stocks. bond yields are sitting near lows investors are waiting next week's fed decision, wilfred, waiting for any clue that they're leaning toward a rate cut. >> time for a cnbc news update with bill griffeth >> happy friday. hundreds of women in hong kong held a peaceful rally earlier today. they oppose a controversial extradition bill and the police crackdown on young demonstrators earlier this week the group is calling for the city's chief executive to step down and today marks two years since the grenfell tower fire in london friends and relatives of the 72 victims along with survivors of that fire released balloons and doves to mark the occasion it is still the deadliest fire on british soil since world war ii nbc news has announced the line-up of democrats participating in the first debate of 2020 there will actually be two night 1 will include booker, de blasio, and warren among others. night 2 will include sanders, harris, and biden. the debate will take place june 26th and 7 in miami, florida and the "new york times" is reporting that the treasury department was already working on a new $20 bill bearing harriet tubman's likeness when secretary mnuchin said last month that "technical issues" would delay unveiling the note until 2028 the bill would be the first to bear the face of an african-american that's the cnbc news update for this hour. back to you. >> where is your tie >> it's just not on. bill, you're back next hour, right? >> i will be, yes. >> you'll be welcome to join the trend if you so desire >> join it >> is that a dare? >> it's up to you. >> let's send it back to mike s sa sanity oeli. >> we got the pretty good sales report for may in most categories but look at how there's been a little bit of a split between the beneficiaries of a strong domestic consumer in terms of the very largest retail stocks or consumer discretionary stocks and the smaller one. this is the regular old s&p 500 consumer discretionary sector in white. in orange it is the -- you see the split that happened right here around the market highs of last fall and it has continued here this is a market cap weighted index. it has the walmarts and the home depots and the amazons and down here domestic change, much more physical, less scale sow see how the market is sort of separating right here interestingly, i don't think that the core retail stocks have retained their ability to tell us if the u.s. consumer's in decent shape the big cap index also includes housing-related stocks it's not pure retail so i think you can still say the consumer looks fine even though the average kind of main street retailer is not seeing it reflected in their stock prices, guys >> mike, thank you kourtney, it does raise a question about how to tell within retail and consumer stocks whether the consumer's all right. the data today, the monthly data was pretty good. >> it is i think the data is good right now and i think you're seeing a bit of a divergence actually when you think about how certain portfolios have now been shifted defensively, and so you're going into the walmarts, you're going into the home depots, you're going into names that tend to be more defensive on the kind of lesser expensive retail prices those middle-tier folks are the ones i think have been struggling or at least the ones we've noticed have been struggling more whereas on the high end when you think of what happened with restoration hardware yesterday or lululemon and what happened there those names have spiked and they're doing well there is this bifurcation around kind of the lower end and the high end in the retail space right now. >> markets are up by about 30 points on the dow with just under 30 minutes left to trade let's talk ipos. shares of chewy soaring on its public debut today the stock opened this morning at $36 per share. far above the initial pricing of $22 per share at chewy's strong debut comes as slack prepares to complete its direct listing next week chewy's up 60% for more on in whether this momentum in the ipo market will last let's bring in brian dieter thanks very much for joining us. what's your take in terms of the huge gains we've seen of the ipos this week do you think that was a purposeful decision by the investment bankers to price them attractively after the sort of headline-grabbing disappointments of the early trade of the likes of uber >> well, it's great to be back and that's the age-old debate. what is the great ipo. i think it's a mix where the bankers didn't fully anticipate the demand and the latent enthusiasm for these new issuances. and i think a lot of money was left on the table. you have this age-old debate, would you rather be the lyft which captured every dollar but has traded down since, the pinterest with a modest gain to give your investors some appreciation oust gates, or the crowdstrike fiverr, chewy where you pop 50% to 90%, gaining some enthusiasm and awareness but leaving money on the table i think there's a lot of sentiment that too much money was left on the table in these cases. >> so which is it? would you rather be a pinterest with sort of a modest decent bounce but nothing extreme >> from the investor and company side a modest gain would be ideal. the walk-up of 10% to 20%. so your new investors start with some money in their pockets. but you're not getting this trading dynamic because the fallout of these huge pops is this book you cultivated and tried so hard to play stocks into the hands of these long-term investors are sitting on a 70% day one gain. and they're often forced to trade out of it. looking then for the dips to buy back in. but you end up having gone through this long road show, hand-picked your investors and you lose them on day one because you're a victim of your own success and mispricing >> byron, you bought into a couple of these recent ipos. which one are you most excited about? >> we've had five ipos this quarter which i think reflects the active market dynamic overall. on the consumer side pinterest is one of our largest holdings so i can't go into deep specifics there but i would say in this amazon era of commerce where differentiation is increasingly hard and user attention at the top end of the funnel is so valuable, this notion of social commerce and image search as that front end into the commerce experience is extremely powerful and then on the enterprise side we are increasingly enthusiastic about these businesses that represent massive upsides. so growth rates of this 50% to 80% profile and yet very compelling free cash flow characteristics. if you look at what's happened with the zoom ipo or what's coming up with slack, i think you're seeing two great cases of that >> just wanted to bring you in here because you are an investor in uber. correct? >> personally i'm an investor in uber we were actually a part of the -- i couldn't buy on the ipo. it might have been a blessing and a curse. i'm a big believer in owning what i know and know well and i think the opportunity set in uber although it dipped, think about what happened to facebook. everyone forgets what can potentially happen uber is a game changer in this marketplace. i mean, they are the brand anytime you need ride-hailing. you're not saying i'm going to last airlift it's like i'm going grab an uber even if you're not grabbing an uber so when you think about the brand recognition and the global opportunities to scale and just the changing that it did of the culture i think uber is going to be a name that you want to hold. so if you can take the al ka seltzer and keep it in your portfolio i think it's going to do just fine in the long term. >> kourtney, you're also looking ahead to peloton >> i am. we talked a little earlier about kind of lululemon. and when you think about how well lulu has done, it's cult-like. everyone from growing to the grocery store you have lululemon on to actually working out to what they're doing with men now. you go in and you get educated on what to wear and how to wear it it's a cult. the same type of engagement is going on with this peloton craze. and so obviously peloton is due to hopefully ipo at some point soon >> how do you know if the cult is a fad >> fad or not fad. i think when you think about the changing dynamic, what's your hold time? right? are you a long-term investor or are you a short-term trading investor i know right now if someone gave me a peloton i'd be all over it. >> they're very different business models, though, lulu and peloton. >> they're different business models but people that are engaged around them love them. you're talking about $3,000 for a bike, for a treadmill. right? and people are paying it you were just talking about the social interaction you can talk to your friends on it engaging kind of what used to be a one-person band on a treadmill and making you feel like you're in a class at your home. i think i'm buying into it i think i'm waiting to get my peloton. >> just very quickly, it's been a huge quarter for ipo activity. is this a sign that they're all just rushing them out? how many quarters more can we see this sort of pace of ipos? >> the floodgates are absolutely blowing open here. we've got hundreds of billion-dollar of-plus private companies that have been waiting on the sidelines for the right market environment and to work through scale and that group is increasingly flipping into public markets and the back line of quality has never been better and the volume of companies has never been larger. >> we cut 55 private enterprise companies alone that are north of a billion dollars sitting in the backlog in the coming years. >> we appreciate it. we've got just over 21 minutes left of trade. up next we've got your last chance for stocks near session highs. as we head to break, here is the count of new highs and lows at the new york stock exchange definitely in favor of highs today as we see some positive action late in the session for the dow and s&p on a friday afternoon. we've got more closing bell. 20 mut tgoft ts.ineso aerhi we've got 17 minutes left of trade. time for the last chance trade kourtney, what have you picked >> i'll bring it back to the top of the show and broadcom in the last five years -- yeah, i am in the last five years it's only been four times that this stock has dropped more than 5% in a day. and every single time on average -- i'm sorry, on average more than 8% comeback in a 30-day time period and 100% of the time it's gone positive. you can't fight the data and hopefully you're going to say past results aren't a predictor of the future. i'll take that, though >> it's weighed a lot on the broader sector would you be buying into the other names in the sector or you just like the size of the move to the down side and broadcom's opportunity? >> the size to it is the opportunity. and i think the fact that i do believe they're going to underpromise and overdeliver and if we see anything go right with china, which we're going to at point in time, this name comes back around. >> i thought you were going to choose lulu. you mentioned it >> i did i owned it before. and i got out of it. but i do like the name and i like the management, where they're going. >> kourtney gibson, it's been great having you here for the hour >> good to see you guys. >> go catch your flight. we've got 15 minutes to go before the closing bell. here's where we stand in the markets. positive for the dow and the s&p 500 right now. that takes our gains up for the week consumer discretionary is still among the top-performing sectors for the week and today utilities leading the charge right now in the s&p international energy agency slashing estimates on global oil demand growth. we're going to break down the energy trade next. plus we're trading the close with a top trader from td ameritrade "closing bell" back after this don'gonyer t awhe. don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg. but we all know we're paying too much for it. enter xfinity mobile. america's best lte, with the most wifi hotspots combined for the first time. when you're near an xfinity hotspot you're connected to wifi, saving on data. when you're not, you pay for data one gig at a time. use a little, pay a little. use a lot, just switch to unlimited. it's a new kind of network. call, visit or go to xfinitymobile.com. welcome back let's check in on some individual market movers facebook higher today after the "wall street journal" reported new details on the company's crypto push. according to the report. visa, mastercard, paypal, and uber have all signed on to invest in facebook's new crypto currency, called libra the shares are up 2% off the back of the news and check out the price of gold. on pace for the best month of the year if it closes higher today it would be its fourth straight weekly gain. the first time since early january. it is a 14-month high. if we broaden out the price to five years on gold, you can see it's up against the resistance it's found quite a few times in the last five years. and the question now is whether it meaningfully breaks above that there's not much resistance above it a lot of chartists saying it could go meaningfully higher from there if it does so >> as-is the market positions for a fed rate cut this is one of the things to do. tudor jones mentioned this week and others, buy gold, buy stocks, the dollar that's the traditional play. though we're late in the cycle and who knows what the fed will say next week. >> inflation's not imminent. so exactly lots of confusing factors with gold >> speaking of confusing factors, oil prices volatile after two tankers were attacked yesterday in the gulf of oman. today international energy agency lowered its estimates for global demand growth jim burkhart, from ihs market. jim, so many bullish and bearish cat liszt all happening to oil this week. how do you add it all up as far as what it means for prices? >> in terms of prices what's really been the dominant force for the last month have been these profound geopolitical and economic concerns that have dragged down the price of oil. the trade relationship with china. in fact, trade norms around the world are crumbling. that's negative for oil demand negative for economic growth and those so far have been overwhelming all of the supply side concerns we've seen this year, which have been many the tanker's only the latest example of that. >> but how much -- how significant is the geopolitical concern at the moment in the middle east? and does it affect brent or wti? and what sort of ranges do you think we could break out from if it persists? >> it's quite ominous what's happened in the middle east now. there have been tanker wars in the middle east before, in the 1980s there were literally hundreds of oil tankers that were attacked at that time oil prices collapsed around that time and they stayed low what's different this time, that was between iran and iraq. this time you have the united states and saudi arabia in direct confrontation with iran so that's much more ominous. in terms of impact brent and wti it impacts both but has a stronger impact on brent wti's in some ways a more provincial benchmark >> and yet, jim, brent is down 2% this week and wti and down just about 3% this week. what does that tell you about where the market priorities are? >> it shows us that one, demand has been week. the u.s. and china the last couple years together have accounted for about 60% of global oil demand growth and the data from the u.s. and china so far this year, it's pretty weak demand growth. in fact, in march it was very bad from both the u.s. and china. so it's those concerns on top of these trade issues that keep on percolating. you know, watch osaka, not vienna later this month to see how it impacts the oil market psychology >> you're saying the g20 meeting is more important. >> this time around the g20 meeting in osaka is probably more important for the oil market than the meeting in vienna which will take place late this month early next month between opec and russia and other countries participating in the supply agreement >> jim, thanks for joining us. jim burkhardt. up next we are covering all the angles of this market close and our closing countdown. dow's up 19 points >> after the bell we'll break down today's retail sales numbers with former toys "r" us ceo jerry storch as we head to break, here are the winners and losers in the dow. we'll be back in a couple minutes. don't go anywhere. plants capture co2. what if other kinds of plants captured it too? if these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. carbon capture is important technology - and experts agree. that's why we're working on ways to improve it. so plants... can be a little more... like plants. ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. just over five minutes left of trade time for the closing countdown let's begin with trading the close. with sean cruz from td ame ameritra ameritrade thanks very much for joining us. you've been watching apple today and this week. what's your takeaway >> i think that apple is a little bit more of a read-through of what you heard from broadcom. and a lot of people are saying what we heard from broadcom about a general slowdown in demand for chips because am has such a close relationship with them as a supplier they're taking that as weakness from apple intheir iphone sales we got a note from an analyst today where he thinks it could indicate a 5 to 10 million unit drop in demand for iphones this year >> shawn, in general what do you think is driving buying into the close on a friday? >> i think right now markets are going to take a little bit of a breather we really have an important week next week because we're going to hear from the fed what they're actually going to be doing from a monetary policy standpoint i think the equity markets have priced in a lot more of a certainty around a potential rate cut next week than what we're seeing out of the bond markets. so i think it will be interesting to see how markets react. one, if they don't get the rate cut and they also don't get that dovish tone out of the fed i think that's what markets are really pricing in right now. and it makes a little bit of sense to maybe take a look at your portfolios, go out there, rebalance, make sure you're okay with everything. especially after the run we've had from those lows to 2750 recently >> we've been talking about lulu during the show, shawn what's your take on the recent moves there? >> i think lulu, it was something very interesting in their earnings report that we heard from management. and they actually talked about just the general congestion going on in the ports over there in southeast asia. one thing i think a lot of investors were looking at with this whole issue with the u.s. and china was finding companies with a lot of exposure to china either from sales or a supply chain standpoint and steer clear of those lululemon did not have much of an exposure to china from their supply chain but they talked about the congestion causing other issues in the ports in southeast asia which is going to force them to move into air freight as a way to get their goods over here. and that is going to increase costs for these retailers that have already had a little best a headwind and a hit to margin from increase in transportation costs and just steering clear of companies that have exposure to china may not be good enough anymore. you really need to look at exposure to southeast asia on a supply chain front and general >> we've hay few people come on the show today and say buy broadcom on these beaten down levels in the stock. do you agree >> i don't know that you want to really go in there and buy broadcom just yet. i think you want to wait and see where things settle out. i'm watching that 255 price level. i think that's going to be important. that's an important volume level where if they break through there we might be selling off closer to 220. i think right now for broadcom i would be cautious about going in there and aggressively buying right now. >> shawn cruz, have a great weekend. thanks for joining us. under three minutes to go before the close, let's go back to mike santoli for the third dashboard of the day mike >> sara, calling this weighing the week we're on target in terms of the broad indexes for a modest gain this week but here is kind of a story of how we got there to these gains. a split between some of the offense type sectors and defense. so the splv, that's what we used for kind of the defensive quality risk off low volatility stocks the vnq is the vanguard reit index etf. also kind of benefiting from that defensive move in real estate high beta is more aggressive stocks within the s&p. and the sox is the semiconductors as you can see right here, orange and blue, that's the aggressive stuff that worked until about tuesday. that's when bond yields were going up and people were getting excited about buying some of the oversold cyclicals then you had some drift lower and of course the big down move in semis today right here you're seeing the outperformance again of the more defensive stuff. take a look at a one-year version of this chart. it's going to be more historic in that exact direction. so low yields are basically anchoring -- obviously anchoring the cost of capital at low levels and you're seeing these predictable cash flow type businesses do very well. whether this is going to change if we get a little bit of a signal from the fed and you get a different playbook start to be put in place we don't know but right now you've benefited from the fact that the steady groups in the market have been able to hold things together let's look at the nasdaq with frank holland. >> the nasdaq finishing slightly down today but still for the week up. just about half a percent. facebook having the biggest positive impact on the nasdaq 100 on news of ilths new crypto currency with paypal and other companies investing in it. microsoft still riegd the wave of its excitement over its entry into cloud gaming. also cnbc parent company comcast and charter both trading higher following news they inked deals with apple to sell more devices in exchange for the right to sell iechltphones on their mobile flafrm. still apple trading lower for the third straight day chips also down just about 2%. now over to dom chu at the new york stock exchange. >> all right, frank holland, thank you very much for that a little bit of movement there we take a look at the dow, the s&p, and the nasdaq. we are seeing at least a big upside there united technology, cisco, boeing some of the week to date losers for the dow overall. if you take a look at some of the week to date winners you can see them as well again, closiing -- the dow is going to be down just about seven points the s&p down by just about four points as well and that does it for this trading week just lost the gains there right at the close welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen >> and i'm wilfred frost alongside mike santoli senior cnbc commentator. slipped into the close nonetheless, essentially flat for the dow. s&p's down slightly. nasdaq down half a percent russell down 0.9 for the week as a whole, though, we do have gains for the major indices. up about half a percent or so for the s&p. >> what stood out to me this week, the dow transports this was one of the pessimists' argument for going into this week they're a leading indicator. there are trains and planes. they tell us something about the economy. they performed terribly. this week they came up a lot 1.6% for the week. outperforming the overall market still down 11% from recent highs. but potentially a bullish signal things continue to repair this week in the market and certainly in the mindset, whether it is better economic data or just the fed or whatever was the catalyst things were looking better >> just going to point out yields down today but a very strong dollar. euro and sterling slipped today. we did get a week to date gain for the dollar 1%. the individual stock i want to put out charles schwab down 3% they released their may activity report which disappointed. and i think that points to the low volumes we've seen this week it's not going to be a great quarter for trading for the banks where it's going to be a great quarter for them on ipos againing we saw a lot of today. it's going to be interesting to see how that shakes out for the winners and losers across the investment banking space >> let's talk about all of this. omar agular joins us cio of equities at charles schwab investment management and barry banister head of u.s. equity strategy at stifel with us as well mike, some softness just in the last closing trades or so. but overall the second positive week in a row coming off the best week for the year >> today was a bit of drift really not decisive but i do think the story of the week is the market held that bounce from those oversold levels of last week. and the rebound has basically more or less remained intact yes with a bit of a defensive turn i think treasury yields right now they're acting as a floor on equity valuations to a degree because corporate buying yields have mostly followed but also they're kind of anchoring stocks from kind of getting lift-off beyond where we've already traded up to simply because there is this fundamental disagreement between the way the bond market sees things and the way the fed stated guidances so we need to bridge that a little bit next week and see if that sort of breaks the tie so to speak >> i'm sorry about your share price move i didn't mean to highlight it just before we introduce you let's talk about the data that we saw this morning. the retail sales data. and some other data we saw earlier in the week. does that make it unlikely to see a fed rate cut this time next week? >> well, i think -- i still think it's going to be unlikely for the fed rate cut next week but not precisely for the reasons you mentioned. i think the economic data that we saw is just -- it shows that -- especially with the retail sales being positive, that there is health condition where we are in the slowdown of the economic conditions but we're still pretty healthy and probably just growing at that natural rate of growth that is just normal trend. so the fed has that as a positive for them to just try a little more there. i think the reasons why they may not do the rate cut next week has to do with the g20 and they may actually wait for the july opportunity to actually do the rate cut there's really a lot that goes into play here especially because one of the fed reasons they're looking into is the financial instability and financial conditions so the economic data gives the fed more options and at the same time complicates the decision of how they're going to explain if they ended up doing a rate cut >> i mean, the other predicament here, barry, is that we got the retail sales number today and a few other inputs lately and we're tracking for 2% gdp growth again this quarter that was higher than we were initially expecting. so why do we expect a few cuts this year from the fed >> well, you have to get pretty creative to start getting to a 2% inflation number with things like trim means. right now we're at about one five, one six on core pce deflator the fed can use low inflation as the reason to at least take back the mistaken rate hike from 2018 i think i agree with the other speaker that they would do that in a july meeting, they'll probably wait for more data and wait for the june 20 results to see what they do >> strong week despite yields slipping it's a sort of pick of a bad bunch in terms of who's the most dovish >> it seems that's the way it's been trading it's certainly not been trading off in the textbook way after fed expectations that's not really a good tell right now. so i do think it is about other stuff looking a little bit weaker and to the extent that the market tends toward a little bit of a defensive cast that's going to be a net beneficiary across -- >> when there's weak china data it benefits the dollar because the u.s. is the relative winner in the china trade war and that just continues to support our currency as we do this tit for tat >> the weak trade data i do think we need to mention, though, industrial production was soft it was plus 5%, though it was expected to be plus 5.4%. the headline everyone focused on, that was a 17-year low for industrial production growth but it's still growth. so again, china is managing all right relative to the doom and gloom that those sort of headlines came, fixed asset investment it was expected to be 6% retail sales had 8.6 everyone just focused on to being huge doom and gloom. but they're managing better than the european company industrial production came out for 24 hours and actually was declining. it's all relative to expectation. but they're still growing. >> we're almost halfway through the year and what we thought we were going to get out of china as a contributor for global growth has been waning throughout the year it's not as if it's falling apart entirely it really fits in with this market's tone of low growth, low rates, deflationary risk, not inflationary risk. >> linked to the topic of china and trade, broadcom lower today after the semiconductor company cut its outlook due to a slowdown in chip demand. here's ceo hock tan on the earnings >> with respect to semiconductors, it is clear that the u.s.-china trade conflict including the huawei export ban is creating economic and political uncertainty and reducing visibility for global oem customers. as a result demand volatility has increased and our customers are actively reducing inventory levels to manage risk. >> the micron ceo also issuing a warning at a conference in hong kong saying the huawei ban brings "uncertainty and disturbance to the semiconductor industry." sayer, if i come to you, do you feel like ceos are trying to get ahead of this and use it as an excuse to lower their guidance that they can beat later in the year, or is this serious fears about earnings for the rest of the year for anything exposed to china and trade? >> our estimate for the s&p 500 earnings this year is 156 against 151.60 last year the street is 165. $9 above us. we think that will come out of second half guidance and we saw with broadcom, and we'll see with other cfos on the conference call is they bring numbers down if you do you've got very low rates. we should trade around 2800 s&p plus or minus 5% at the high end of the range i'd lighten up low end of the range i'd add to positions. but we are rangebound. >> a lot of these stocks already factored this in every time there's a bad development in the trade war, especially with huawei, the semis are the first to get hit how much is -- >> well, today nobody escaped it it was certainly degrees of pain but texas instruments and down 3% or something like that. psychology's very fragile around semis at the moment just because they they did have this very whippy move toward the highs in april. >> it also makes you wonder who the next semis are in terms of raising big red flags. >> semis you would think are very much kind of the whip end of this effect just in general in terms of risk to forward estimates you have to worry about the fact we've kind of flatlined on s&p consensus for a while now. nobody's had the impetus to raise yet we haven't cut that much >> why is that why are earnings expectations hanging in there despite mounting risks from trade? >> well, i think a lot of what is already priced into the expectations is the fact that we're in an earnings and economic deceleration that we started several months ago and several quarters ago and i think what this just represents is the extra uncertainty related to the trade discussions and the u.s.-china trade deals. i think earlier in the year we saw semis basically doing very well precisely because the market was very excited about the fact there was going to be a deal so i think when these things change all of a sudden this provides extra volatility surrounding the earnings and you know, we have always said the fact that this u.s. trade deal, the u.s.-china trade deal ends up being more of an earnings component first and then an economic one so we're seeing the volatility in earnings in certain sectors that obviously is a result of the uncertainty of where these things will go so it's not surprising we'll see more of these as we go to the g20 and a lot of the discussions about whether or not there's going to be meetings that will probably make some progress on those talks. >> ohm sxr barry, thank you very much for joining us. meantime, retail sales are showing signs of strength for the last month up next former toys "r" us ceo gerald storch will join us to react to the state of the consumer and weigh in on whether more retailers will be forced to pass along the costs as a result of president trump's tariffs >> and facebook reportedly getting some big name backers for its new crypto currency. find out whether the social media giant will be able to cash in on yp, teonclcrtolar "osing bell." the nasdaq ending the day as the biggest underperformer of the major averages frank holland is going to break down the details frank. >> happy friday, wilf. we're going to get the bad news out of the way first chips down about a percent and a half for the week amd the worst performer of the group down nearly 6% now to the good side dollar tree seeing great performance this week having the best positive impact on the nasdaq 100 following a jpmorgan upgrade and a decision to add alcohol to its struggling family dollar chains. definitely getting a positive reaction airline stocks also taking off this week. american up 5% united up about 4% after industry price increases ulta beauty also seeing an upside on the retail stride. and crowd-strike we've got to talk about it surging nearly 90% this week the same week that it launched its ipo. back over to you >> frank, thank you very much for that slight slippage for that stock but no complaints for the week as a whole certainly may retail sales coming in slightly below forecasts increasing by 0.5% for the month compared to estimates of 0.6% increase >> so for more on what today's data says about the state of retail and the consumer let's bring in gerald storch, ceo of storch advisers, former ceo of hudson's bay and toys "r" us welcome back, gerry. >> great to be here. >> feels like we learned a lot about the consumer this week between the retail sales the sentiment data and the fact that consumer discretionary stocks were actually the top performers >> consumers are still strong. they've been strong throughout this entire period there was a bounce around a little bit even the revisions for the april sales were a full .5 of a point positive revision to those sales. so you take this, missed a little by .1 the revision -- >> that's 11 out of 15 sectors were higher. >> the other thing i always look at is not that number but the year over year increase which is over 3%. again, which is what retailers care about what are my tom p store sales? so the economy continues to grow the consumer is very strong. they will continue to be strong as long as they have jobs the way they do. as long as wages are good. as long as consumer confidence is high and unless the stock market would take a big dive because sometimes that does have an effect. otherwise, there won't be -- doesn't matter what people are talking about. doesn't matter if people are yapping about tariffs or impeachment or even geopolitical concerns people have jobs and money, they're going to spend it. >> it's not just talk of tariffs, of course they're coming into play they could get elevated. at the moment it seems like their effect has played out for the companies rather than for the consumer if that changed, would it hit consumer sentiment -- >> i just don't think it would be big enough. and really it's been almost no effect so far. we look at it. and retailers have come out and said, that haven't had any effect on us really yet. when you see what's going on and the good ones are taking action already it is our job to manage shocks to the system. and that's what retailers are doing. they will go to the vendors and demand concessions and a lot of them will give it or else they're going to move the production they'll move the production to other countries that don't have the tariffs. also we don't have to carry anything the margin's too short then you don't carry that item or that product. so you have a choice as a retailer what you sell and what you don't sell so you sell things you can make money on and finally at the end of the day onlyif you have to then yo raise prices but if you think about it it's a percent of goods that come from there and it's a percent of those that increase and if you shift production it's not a 25% increase in costs, it's the next lowest priced country. so really it's been a little bit of an overreaction and whatever the impact is on the consumer it really at this point relatively small. now, there are a few categories, you know, toys is one i'd like to mention because it is dominant that it comes from china. there's nowhere else to get it i would hope the administration is smart enough, you know, politically and thoughtfully not to put a tariff on something like toys right before christmas when there's nowhere else to get toys >> and most of the industry is built after a couple of these cycles without great inflation, it's a tailwind to operate this way. >> i hate to say this is a positive but it's drying to find some positive and negative story. no one thinks tariffs are good but if there is retail inflation that is good for retailers there's a lot of fixed costs in retail infrastructure for rents. wages are always sticky on the up side. if you can get inflation going you can get some leverage in the p & l, you'll see that translate as higher same-store sales even if it comes from inflation you have to sell less items to get the same sales the profitability will improve for those retailers who have the strength to manage it, who can manage the supply chains, put the pressure on the vendors to deliver those lower prices >> since you mentioned it, let's talk toys for a moment we had this exclusive interview on the show with mga entertainment ceo isaac larian they have the bratz dolls and others he gave a pretty grim outlook for mattel after the company rejected his merger bid. >> mattel at one time was an iconic foundation of the toy business, and i hate to see it go the way toys "r" us did i think the way they are functioning right now they are going to go into bankruptcy shortly. within a year or so. they have no idea about the toy business and i think if we combine the two companies the value of the stock and the shareholders value will go up tremendously. but they rejected my very fair offer. >> we did hear from the company today. a mattel spokesperson gave us this statement in response to larian's comments, saying "yesterday's interview included numerous verifiable inaccuracies the reality is we have made strong progress on our ongoing strategic transformation plan including significant improvements in our profitability and operating income while laying the groundwork to drive long-term shareholder value. and i did go through some of the claims after the interview of what larian said including personal claims like board members that were teachers and the ceo -- there are inaccuracies that professor actually didn't start till 2006, well after ynon was there. stuff like that, gerry what's going to happen to mattel >> first of all, all of this has to be put in the context of a long, bitter, protracted relationship between mga and bratz. this bitterness, it's older than when you folks here, sara, wilfred, and mike, were buying barbie dolls and hot wheels. it's been going on for that long >> turning 60 this year i think. so it could be true. >> they haven't been fighting 60 years. they've been fighting a long time, though, and there's been a lot of money that's changed hands, a lot of bitterness that's there meanwhile, what you do see going on here is that mattel may not, you know, go bankrupt the way isaac is saying. i don't know anyone who really thinks that. they may be worth a lot more than $6 a share. it was up today, you'll notice, closer to $12 a share. but most people think it has lost its way and there's a lot of heavy lifting ahead for the company. it's down a little bit lately. the strategy that's being followed is a strategy of trying to capture the value in the very rich i.p. poll including barbie and some of the other properties we discussed now you have mga and isaac eyes sak a genius toy maker. he is fantastic. he's had more hits in a row than any other toy company. and you know, he is an iconoclast he says what's on his mind with very little filter someone who is a toymaker, that probably feels like something quite different than what they would do in their mind a value maximizing trade. you have a conflict in direction there that's quite clear up against that you look at hasbro, who really is the real giant against mattel they used to be equivalent going head to head now, hasbro under brian goldner, has done so well there were three times mattel's market cap relationship. there really is an issue at mattel the company has made some progress where it goes from here i think we'll have to wait and see >> but they are following the hasbro playbook in a way, tapping into i.p., into movies, and the disney play book so they can be more asset light, less of a manufacturing company and more of kind of a studio. >> i would say hasbro is doing both and they led the way with i.p. creation and as you know, they bought a television network, did a lot of work on movies, a lot of things there. but they're never really shy of being true toymakers there's been a succession of ceos at mattel i don't know about -- i'm talking about what's happening in the past. there are? who didn't come from the toy industry almost as if that was a bad thing to know the business you were sent to manage. because there's a belief that digital was the future and they needed people with that kind of background to run the company. and they really didn't do a very good job at wh you look at what happened brian goldner, he breathes and -- he breathes toys. they've done both. they've created a lot of amazing product. they have probably the broadest breadth of actual products in the industry they have both the i.p. and the hard assets at hasbro. >> gerald storch, very good to see you. thank you. >> thank you market volatility has certainly picked up since early may. we will break down the charts to find out whether history says investors could experience a volatility storm this summer that's a mike santoli telechart. whatever you call it coming up. that's what happens in golf nothiand in life.ily. i'm very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley. ...or trips to mars. $4.95. delivery drones or the latest phones. $4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade. your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. the s&p 500 closed up about half a percent for the week. let's go to mike santoli for the final dashboard of the day and the week mike >> still a half hour left in the show this is the last one this is all i get? >> this is your last ashboard? >> if you want, russetle up another four >> the summer sometimes is a little bit sleepy. sometimes actually has some fireworks in them. this is the annual trend of the volatility of the vix seasonally from january to december this isn't any particular year this is the last 20 years of the vix crammed into one average path that the volatility index has taken. this is around where we are in june usually there's a bit of a lull in july and the vix tends to more than any other period of the year bottom out in mid summer but then you get into late july and august and you usually do see some kind of a spike and the high for the vix in a year is often or almost never at the very beginning of the year i will say that. now, the issue is we had a different type of start to this year if you want to look at the year to date for the vix. we were coming off of one of the most explosive decembers we've ever had so this is january we just had to kind of -- the fever had to break in january. little bit of a spike there. nothing much of anything a little sell-off in march so really what you've seen is a moderating trend until you did get this little bump here in may. so i would say it doesn't really tell you you're not going to get the seasonal tendencies but you shouldn't necessarily expect it to follow the exact path but you want to see the opportunity for the market to settle into a zone maybe after the fed meeting. maybe after we get the g20 hard to know what the next catalyst is going to be during earnings season until earnings season which is the third week of july. >> does where rates are sitting have an impact on this >> the volatility of the rate outlook often has a lot to say about how the equity volatility index trades arguably we could have some volatility in that outlook here because a lot of uncertainty in terms of inflection point in fed policy, things like that >> mike, thanks so much. we look forward to the next four in the final 30 minutes of the show time for a cnbc news update with bill griffeth. hey, bill. >> hey, wilf thank you. here's what's happening at this hour u.s. officials say that iranian boats are preventing tugboats from towing away one of those damaged oil tankers in the gulf of oman. and today the uk says it is almost certain that a branch of the iranian military was responsible for the attacks on those tankers. check out this video of a landslide in china swallowing up cars it is the rainy season in china. it causes flooding and landslides all across the country around 61 people have already been killed. 350,000 forced to evacuate a new hbo miniseries is leading to a boon in tourism in chernobyl. one local agency says it has seen a 40% boost in tourism since the show debuted ukrainian officials insist the area is safe to visit. you first. and remember the chicago white sox photographer who got hit by that errant first pitch last month well, it happened again last night. and this time he was ready for it he caught the ball with his left hand while he was holding his camera with his right hand good for him and that's the cnbc news update for this hour. >> was that the very same photographer, bill >> i don't believe it was, no. what's the matter? >> you outdid him. >> go big or go home, frost. >> you win outstanding. >> a lovely weekend. >> you too, mr. griffeth thank you very much. >> i'm so happy for you. >> up next, more than a dozen companies including visa and mastercard are reportedly backing facebook's new crypto currency we will hear from the reporter behind that story when we come back the outstanding bill griffeth. -driverless cars... -all ground personnel... ...or trips to mars. $4.95. delivery drones or the latest phones. $4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade. no matter what you trade, at fidelity - (phone ringing)a phones offers - big button,ecialized phones... and volume-enhanced phones., get details on this state program. call or visit and accessoriesphones for your mobile phone. like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. - ( phone ringing ) - get details on this state program call or visit facebook getting into crypto the social media giant plans to unveil libra next week and it's set to launch next year. >> facebook has reportedly signed on big backers like visa, mastercard, paypal and uber. liz hoffman joins us on the phone. she's one of the reporters behind the story from the "wall street journal." also with us melton demirez, chief strategy officer at coinshare. liz, i'll start with you if i may. congrats on the story. tell us the background of this how long has this been in the works for facebook and how close are we to launch >> this has been in the works now for more than a year david marcus came over from paypal, working on their payment initiative and heading up a blockchain effort for a while there. you can see there's lots of moving parts here, a big consortium with lots of different types of stakeholders. it's been a long project they're trying to get this fully operational in 20-20 >> and liz, according to your reporting this is going to be slightly different from some of the other crypto currencies out there in that they're actually going to peg it to existing sovereign currencies >> that's right. the real problem with a lot of the existing crypto currencies from a payments perspective, but will make some fun investments is if they bounce around like crazy, they're highly volatile but that limits their ability for commercial payments. so there's something called the stable coin where you effectively peg it to something stable, the u.s. dollar, gold, here it looks like the executive of global currencies that can be managed and help tone sure some value behind the coin. >> what does this actually mean in practice for facebook users why do they need a crypto currency >> i think this news is amazing for crypto currency and payments first of all, facebook has 2.5 billion users. it's the largest platform in the world. so 2.5 billion people getting introduced to digital currencies, getting introduced to utilizing wallets is an amazing innovation for the space. secondly it puts a lot of pressure on every other platform out there that doesn't have its own native payment mechanism and this is part of the second broader theme, is that facebook is starting to get into the payment space without becoming a bank this is a major move they're going to decentralize this currency and its network to avoid some of the interpretations around control so it will be interesting to see square obviously is taking quite a different approach they're building directly on top of bitcoin, facilitating access toability coyne through their cash up to their users so this tension between whether companies are going to utilize existing bitcoin and other digital currencies versus build their own blockchains like jpmorgan has done with their jpmorgan into and now facebook it will be an interesting bat toll watch unfold. >> it might speed up i guess the need for regulation of the space given that it's circumventing. what's your take on all this >> i guess i have questions about it's sort of facebook kind of taking out the fun and leaving the function it would seem >> what do you mean? >> essentially you don't have first of all the incentive to mine and therefore maintain the network. that's what bitcoin has done created this incentive to actually confirm transactions and do the work of the network by earning bitcoin in exchange as opposed to just have sort of a centralized payments network utilizing the infrastructure of banks or visa or mastercard or something like that. so there's not going to be that kind of asset play here presumably and it's just going to be behind the scenes, software running transactions which is fine. i just don't understand what the leap is except to keep that activity in-house within facebook's network >> i think the opportunity is for the consortium that's participating in the network arguably there's going to be a lot of data around users and their payments the big question for me is how identities will be managed on the platform and the link between identity and payments within facebook's walled garden. obviously, facebook is a company in crisis right now. they're under a lot of pressure. there's also in the macro environment, there's privacy regulation that's going to be introduced in the u.s. this move to cathy a decentralized network of third parties, participate in a network who confirm and validate transactions but more importantly store the data so that it's not accessible in one central place could arguably be a good move for facebook to avoid some of the criticism around centralization and control that they've faced in the past. >> bitcoin went up today it sounds very bullish for bitcoin. and having big players and legitimate players beyond facebook but like a mastercard involved is it, though? is it bullish for bitcoin? >> absolutely. in my view bitcoin and this new facebook asset, they don't compete at all to your point, bitcoin is more speculative in nature. it's been highly volatile. and this is really intended to be a stable currency intended for payments within the facebook application ecosystem. in my view they're really complementary. but i think this is a massive adoption signal for the world. it legitimizes what's been happening in the digital currency space we're very, very excited about it >> liz, just quickly, who should be most worried by this? who do you think facebook are targeting? the banks, the payment processors or the central banks? >> i was struck by the presence in the consortium of visa and mastercard that's who i would be worried -- if i were them i might be worried about this and i think facebook is smart to get some of those stakeholders on board financially invested. we reported asking for $10 million from their partners for more skin in the game. but it also makes it hard for them to stand on the side and throw rocks. >> liz and meltem, thank you both for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> don't miss facebook co-founder chris hughes will be on "squawk box" 8:00 a.m. eastern time on monday morning in other tech-related news amazon and joe biden going head to head over corporate taxes ylan mui has that story. ylan >> sara, it is a twitter feud, and it's over taxes. biden called out amazon yesterday over reports that it didn't pay any federal income tax last year. he tweeted "no company pulling in billions of dollars of profits should pay a lower tax rate than firefighters or teachers." that prompted this sort of snarky response from amazon. "we pay every penny that we owe. congress designs the laws. assume biden's complaint is with the tax code, not amazon." the reality here, guys, is there is no way to tell for sure how much amazon has paid but it is true that corporate tax revenue is falling much faster than expected, down 9% so far this fiscal year. >> and ylan, you have to say to amazon's response that they're absolutely spot on as long as they are honoring the laws, which of course we'll assume that they are. it's different than the hq2 search where they were speaking special treatment despite being such a rich and powerful company. >> what you could argue is during the's process of the tax law being crafted that companies make sure that they didn't lose critical deductions that allowed them to not even pay the 21% corporate tax rate that the new law provides for them. so you know, obviously they wanted to make sure that critical tax breaks like r&d tax credits remain in place. certainly no one's accusing amazon of tax evasion in this tweet. it's more about sort of smart tax attorneys making sure to lower your tax bill which ends up being a good thing for shareholders but obviously is politically perilous >> it's still something that's on the company to make the most of if it exists. and on lawmakers to close loopholes if they exist. >> it just shows that amazon, all of these companies are going to be political punching bags for both sides >> there's already talk some countries in europe they're taxed on the top line. it is effectively an alternative minimum tax for companies. >> which could happen and come into play. but until it does you can't blame the companies to purposely pay more tax than their shareholders want them to. finish your thought. i'm sorry. >> it's pretty clear on the democratic side at least in this race that almost everyone is in favor of raising the corporate tax rate i would say that's something that appears to be baked in to their messaging right now. >> ylan, thank you very much for joining us with that story up next to cut or not to cut what should the fed's next move be we'll debate which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. ♪ at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. plants capture co2. what if other kinds of plants captured it too? if these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. carbon capture is important technology - and experts agree. that's why we're working on ways to improve it. so plants... can be a little more... like plants. ♪ ♪ the federal reserve set to meet next week big question, whether we will get guidance as to whether they will start cutting interest rates. it would be a major policy reversal let's bring in lakshmi nakathan from the economic research institute. and anthony chan former chief economist at chase on different sides of this issue. lakshman you say they should have already been cutting. >> we're way past the due date >> i thought we had a good economy. >> the headlines might suggest that you have unemployment low, gdp high but i think a lot of people forget that the last gdp print before the last recession real-time, guess what it was >> strong? >> 4.9%. that doesn't -- >> which quarter was 4.9 >> this was third quarter. you had in the fourth quarter before end of '07. that's the way coincident lagging data works it doesn't tell you about the future you have to look at leading indicators >> like what >> leading indicators of the economy. the weekly leading index out there, it showed the slowdown. we are dell sell raitting in growth for the economy but more importantly what's been going on with the markets, all the drama is in the bonds. and what's going on there when you deconstruct what's moving it, it's really inflation expectations which stayed elevated through last fall and then started to move down and in very recent weeks the last six, seven weeks they've really made a move down. and that is underscoring from a cyclical vantage point the inflation cycle downturn that began last july, which you could see by the fall. and so if you're going to be pre-emptive with monetary policy and smooth things out and try to forestall bad things from happening, you can't do more later. that's not how it works. it's all about timing being pre-emptive. and so they are late >> anthony on the other hand you don't think there's any immediate urgency. >> i really don't see it because i agree with lakshman that you have to look forward but when i look at the second quarter the numbers look very small. the atlanta fed just revised upward their expectations for the second quarter to 2.1% remember that in early may that number was 0.9%. now it's stronger. let's look at inflation. we know the core inflation number came in at 2% but lakshman says we should look at the future. and i agree. but guess what the university of michigan looking at inflation expectations one year into the future is 2.6% if the target is 2%, 2.6% seems good now, people say well, that's just one year, i don't trust it. look at the five-year median inflation expectation. 2.2% still above the target i am not saying that at some point the fed doesn't have to lower interest rates but right now there's no immediate need. last thing, the university of michigan, home buying expectations over 140, jumped more than 10 points people are not going to think and be excited about buying houses when inflation is going down they'll wait and right now this month the university of michigan is telling us people are excited about buying houses. it's not because prices of housing are going to go lower. it's because they think they're going higher that doesn't sound like deflation to me. >> so i hear you we're looking at the rate of change, what's going on with the direction of inflation and things like the pce core which is really essential to the fed's thinking hit a peek of about 2% in july of last year and has been decelerating about 1 1/2% but more importantly, what's up with the bond market it is -- >> but is qe easing -- >> flashing around somewhere >> well, it's inflation expectations everywhere. there's inflation cycle downturns here and inflation cycle downturns there in europe, in japan it's cyclical. those are market-oriented economies too. and we had a reflation into '16, '17, maybe a little into '18 and now we've cycled down. it's not more complicated than that it's a cyclical downturn >> i agree with lakshman you should look at the bond market but go to germany. the 10-year, minus 25 basis points you go to japan, look at the 10-year number, minus 25 basis points even if you go to the u.s., guess what, the 30 to 2-year is not inverted it's 24 basis points then you look at 2-year government bond yield, you look at the 10-year, guess what in the last two weeks they've gone up two basis points they've gone higher. >> lakshman, just quickly, you start with we should have cut back in september. >> yes >> clearly the fed hasn't been looking at the same things you have because they've hiked since then has anything changed in the last two months that makes you think they are likely to now cut next week >> yeah. well, i think the powell pivot is -- that's a big elephant in the room, right? and that was entirely i would argue because of inflation expectations really, really plunging them being behind that inflation curve. they recognize that. and they've acknowledged it. but they've only said as far as much as we hope it's transitory. because it doesn't fit into their models unemployment's low gdp headline's high. it doesn't fit so it must be therefore transitory this is cyclical cyclical means to persist a bit longer and what's happened recently is that those forward-looking indicators that they anticipate the inflation cycle downturn have moved down further. the jobs market has been starting to get a whiff of this slowdown i think what the fed really needs is some cover. they need some more weak jobs numbers. they need a -- maybe a weak production number. maybe gdp doesn't come in as expected or there's always financial conditions -- >> are you advising the president -- i think you and trump are the only ones calling for a rate cut in september. >> if so he's just looking at the inflation rate the rate of inflation is decelerating but larry's there, right >> maybe you're advising larry are you advising larry >> we all know each other for a long time. i'm not advising anybody but information's there. anyone can look at it. if you look at cycles and inflation. i think that's the concept that escapes people >> lakshman acuthan. anthony chan thank you. a very civilized debate among economists closing the gap. we are talking parental leave. and even though it's father's day, most dads out there should not expect much meti off we did a deep dive and we will explain. >> father's day may be this weekend, but some dads shouldn't expect parental leave as one of their presents sara has been digging into all of the details forthat sara >> the reason why is the u.s. is the only industrialized country in the world with no national paid family leave policy they are all over the map. we did a deep dive starting with the biggest employers in this country. we found that ibm stands out for its generosity and its paid leave for both parents 20 weeks for birth moms, 12 weeks for dads and other partners, and while most other top employers like amazon, walmart, accenture, home depot, target and starbucks all offer three-month leave for birth moms and yes, both do specify it by gender, the secondary caregiver which is often dad takes two to six weeks. what else stands out among the biggest employers in the u.s.? ups only offers paid leave for women, nothing for men few companies out there walgreen's, ge, united healthcare they stand out for offering parents equal time off regardless of gender those are the biggest companies in america and what about other notable companies? the leaders tend to be in technology or financial services industries and netflix for instance, particularly innovative and unlimited paid leave for both poms and dads american express deserves a shout out. that's generous. bank of america is another standout for equal paid leave for both parents the bottom line, though, we called so many company it is, guys and companies are very focused on maternity leave or primary caregiver leave, there is really a lot of ambiguity, and definitely inequality when it comes to the secondary caregiver leave. many companies like i mentioned ups and many, many more often don't give any to dad or the secondary caregiver. >> is this an area that's being addressed or not >> i would say on the maternity leave company and to be fair to companies. unlike every other country including the uk, this is usually mandated or at least government funded, companies are going at it alone and they're trying to figure it out and some of them are learning the hard way. j.p. morgan settled $5 million to fathers who claimed they were entitled to primary care leave and were denied or discouraged from taking it because they were dads so the ambiguous gender policies -- >> which is why it might become a policy debate because you're hearing about child care, day care and things like that. i wonder if this could be thrown into this -- >> cnbc all america survey that steve liesman puts together shows overelwhming bipartisan support for paid leave even if it has to be federally funded and even from republicans. >> great deep dive reporting there sara happy father's day >> mike santoli in particular. >> yes >> up next, your wall street week ahead the key inthgs every investor needs to watch as we head into a new week when "closing bell" returns. i consulted with your grandmother's doctor. we can do the screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪ welcome back now for our wall street week ahead. the paris air show and the listing are taking center stage next week. let's start with the preview of the air show phil lebeau has that for us. wi wilf, the tenor will be different and what's expected this year? it will be a dramatic falloff and the fewest orders since 2016 and two companies will be in focus, boeing, you're not going to see orders from boeing because the focus is on the 737 max and getting that back up in the air and dealing with cut customers there and airbus is expected to launch the a-321 xlr thinking a longer range narrow body plane and we'll be in paris. >> slack is up for its direct listing next week. leslie picker has more on that >> slack will be making its debut next and we're doing something similar to an initial public offering and with underwriters and a roadshow and the ability to raise any cash and this unconventional method is called a direct listing and if it sounds familiar it's because spotify was the unicorn to utilize it last year and direct listings effectively involve current investors selling the stock on the open market and it makes communication software used by employees at companies and because it's a well-known brand the direct listing method was more of an option, guys? >> leslie picker, thanks for that the broader markets, what would the market want to see from the fed next week? >> a pretty clear signal that it is mindful and prepared to move and i don't think it wants a cut. >> it doesn't want to hear the word transitory about inflation. >> that was not welcomed >> right now the market has rushed to the point of saying inflation is slipping pretty fast >> mike, thanks very much. happy father's day that is it for closing bell. >> have a good weekend "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq marketsite overliking times square i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan and guy adami chewy is the latest ipo to go parabolic on the first day of trading and is it a bad sign for the stock? we'll explain and facebook going full crypto called libra next week with a number of big backers. we've got all of the details and we start out with what could be a make or break movie for the rally and the final two and a half trading days and we only do

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