Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20180119 : compareme

CNBC Worldwide Exchange January 19, 2018

Im courtney reggen in for sara eisen thanks for having me its a great day to be on wex on friday happy friday to everyone watching our top story, countdown to shutdown lawmakers have under 19 hours to pass a spending bill or else the lights go out in washington. The republicancontrolled house okayed a temporary funding measure late last night but now the senate must approve it so far its unclear whether or not they will. Senate democrats are holding their ground demanding an immigration deal they have until midnight tonight. The last time we saw a Government Shutdown was 2013 it lasted for 16 days. Well have much more on this developing story coming up well see how the markets are reacting to the d. C. Drama a marginally higher open on wall street, the dow higher by 15 points, the nasdaq higher by 21, and s p 500 higher by about 4. Throughout the day yesterday the markets did slip as it got more and more evident that we were getting closer to the shutdown we had that late vote by the house last night lets look at the tenyear we saw a nice move yesterday hitting a high of 2. 67, this was the highest level since march of 2017 we are at 2. 63 bangon look at that we will watch that today asian equities for you, mostly positive today. 0. 4 for hong kong, shanghai, japan just slightly higher looking at the bank of japan meeting next week as well. European trade for you which has been an odd week we have the ftse down a percent week to date, germany up, france down slightly. We are ending on a positive note for germany, which is up the best part of 1 . Lets check on commodities the International Energy agency out with a new report that says the u. S. Is well positioned to overtake saudi arabia and russia as the worlds leading Energy Producer by the end of this year the iea notes this all provided opec and nonopec production restraints remain in place oil prices selling off here. Wti crude down by almost a percent. Ice brent crude down by 0. 9 week to date, wti is down a half percent. Looking like well add to that today. That would break a four week winning streak for wti and brent if we end the week down. Lets look at the price of gold. Gold on thursday was down about 0. 9 also on pace to break a fiveweek winning streak it is slightly higher here today at 1335, up by mo 1335, up by m. Not enough to break that losing streak for the week. Currencies for you, the dollar was flat yesterday. Its soft today. The euro is higher by 0. 3. The yen is higher by 0. 4 . The pound is higher by 0. 1 bank of japan next week, we have an ecb meeting an ecb meeting is coming next week i think we forget, despite the strength out of europe, we forget we did see rather dovish mario draghi after the last meeting just a month or so ago we saw Euro Weakness off the back of that its hard to see why mario draghi would want to be hawkish in this upcoming meeting given the euro means so much for the exporters. Even if they are getting closer to hiking, why be hawkish until theyre at that point. So perhaps some risk to the downside given the euro recently bitcoin, you have just seen it, its had a roller coaster week today relatively flat, up to the mid to high 11,000 level lets talk more about the markets. Joining us is gina sanchez good to see you. Its been a week where we have seen volatility come back. Markets have recovered from tuesdays intraday selloff is one of the reasons the volatility is up is because of the threat of a golf shutdown in your eyes . Without a doubt i think thats driving quite a bit of it. And its also driving the dollar which is affecting a lot of International Trades i think the dollar could remain weak as long as we see this Political Drama play out sorry in terms of what to expect for the broader u. S. Market if we do get a shutdown, does it lead to a big intraday selloff over the weekend in terms of the fut chichir futures market or does it not really have an effect on the level of the equities markets i dont think it will have an enormous effect on the equity markets. They seem impervious to whats happening in washington. I think earnings will probably be the story of the day, even if you do get a golf. Shutdown lets be clear, if you have a shutdown, it does have a consumption effect, you will see it a quarter later so you may not see an immediate reaction, the kind of selloff over multiple days i think it causes a bit of volatility and its ab coshed ba absorbed back into the market over a day or so that seems to have been what happened in the past with a bit of a pullback, then markets digest it and move on. As we talk about down the road what do you think equities are shaping up to look like for the first half and the second half of the year, if earnings are strong and economic fundamentals continue to grow so, we actually see it exactly the way you just described it a year of two halves the first half will continue to see momentum, well see strong earnings, as we get into the second half of the year, we have a few things were keeping our eye on that could make it difficult for equities to maintain these very high evaluations. If you look at evaluations today, we have not seen valuations this high more than three times since 1950 thats a big deal. There is a couple of things, earnings comps will get harder as we head into the latter half of the year. Comps right now are easy, we have real Earnings Growth. Those are all positive even if Earnings Growth maintains it will be hard to have extraordinary double digit figures into next year because the comps will be harder second, i think once the ipo of aramco happens, i think that saudi will have to step back from support of these tight opec policies and you could see oil fall in the latter half of the year that could have an effect on equity pricing bank of japan and the ecb next week, what do you expect . Clearly we had a strong run in both the euro and the yen. The dollar has been wreak. Are these events something that could change the direction of that i think if anything it would continue theyre both fairly dovish you mentioned it earlier in your commentary, the ecb will remain dovish i think the strength of the euro is not quite a problem, but it will become a problem at some point, but for the time being the dollar will remain soft reflecting whats happening in the United States more than reflecting the policies of the ecb or the boj so nothing will change there gina sanchez, thank you very much making headlines, San Francisco fed president John Williams is being considered by the white house for the number two position at the fed. The wall street journal says it is unclear whether williams is the frontrunner for vice chair. He would replace Stanley Fischer who retired last year. Williams took over as president of the San Francisco fed in 2011 in a statement to the Financial Times williams said he would welcome an opportunity to serve as vice chair. Ibm just did something it has not done in 22 straight quarters lets get to landon dowdy with the details. Good friday to you. The tech giant returned to ref kn Revenue Growth for the first time in five years, but shares are down this morning as weaker than expected guidance overshadowed that news the tech company beating on the top and bottom lines this is a positive sign as the Company Faces competition from amazon, google and microsoft ibm says it took a onetime charge of 5 5. 5 billion as a result of recent tax reform. Heres what Martin Schroeder told jim cramer on mad money last night first half to second whatever which we described in july played out as we said. That puts us on a good base. We guided towards growing ref knew and stable margins. When we think about the transformation of ibm, yes, now that the portfolio is transformed, we have momentum going after 2018 looking at the stock, shares are down about 2 in the past year the stock is off about 2. 5 in early trading. Back over to you thank you very much for that. Softbank closed its deal with uber yesterday making it the largest shareholder in the Ride Hailing Service as part of the deal, softbank will invest about 9 billion in uber including 1 billion in new shares softbank will own a 15 stake in the company and has added two representatives to the board uber will also limit Voting Rights by early shareholders and the control held by Travis Kalanick so kalanick, by all reports, is selling about a third of his stake and netting about 1. 3 billion in cash. Its unheard of to see a founder get out so much cash early from a company when theyre still making a loss. Usually you want to incentivize the founder to stay and not sell a single share until it fully lists, but given the clashes kalanick has had with the board and opposing softbank coming in, hes been forced to do that. I think its an amazing outcome for him. He banked at least 1. 3 billion while the company is still losing money and he still has twothirds of upside to come and a billion out. The whole situation is unusual. What if the company over five years doesnt do well, continues to lose money, never ipos, he has done fantastically well. Even if he had been fighting the softbank deal, he has done well. American express reporting its first quarterly loss in 26 years in the Fourth Quarter but adjusted earnings did beat the street they will suspend the Share Buyback program for six months to rebuild capital following tax law changes in the u. S shares are down 2. 5 Jpmorgans Jamie Dimon received 29 29. 5 millions in toa pay last year according to an s. E. C. Filing, thats up more than 5 from 2016. His pay package includes 5 million in cash. His base salary remains unchanged at 1. 5 million his total cash comp is 6. 5 million of the 29. 5 million number all enormous numbers, but when you consider the performance theyve had 2017 was not as good a year for them as probably the previous three or four last year bank of america was the standout, but their performance was still strong yes, its a lot of money but the bank is doing well when you look at how much other people below him are paid, daniel pinto, number two, followed by gordon smith, those are the two you point to as the most likely successors, if anything happened quickly, and theyre the two that were paid the most in total, 21 million for pinto, 20 million for gordon smith. A lot of money paid out by jpmorgan they want to keep him in that position he is their guy. They have to make sure hes paid appropriately. Its the first of the big banks that we know what the pop brass were paid. As we see the rest come out, it will be interesting to see how they fall. The performance was different for some of the names last year. 6 share price gains off the top of my head for Goldman Sachs and wells fargo in and around that level versus over 20 for bank of america well see how the numbers play out for their various pays. Texas instruments named Brian Crutcher as the new ceo. He will succeed Rich Templeton in june. Templeton will stay on as chairman crutch hear worked at ti for two decades. Still ahead on Worldwide Exchange, ring the alarm. Well tell you what the s. E. C. Just said about bitcoin that could have a major impact on the cryptocurrency plus countdown to shutdown well head live to washington as the clock ticks on the senate to pass a spending bill stick around, Worldwide Exchange will be right back lets get started. Show of hands. Who wants customizable options chains . Ones that make it fast and easy to analyze and take action . How about some of the lowest options fees . Are you raising your hand . Good then its time for power e trade the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. Alright one quick game of rock, paper, scissors. 1, 2, 3, go. E trade. The original place to invest online. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. If youre just waking up, lets get you up to speed on the market action. We are counting down to a potential shutdown in washington, d. C. But futures are pointing to a slightly higher open the dow jones higher by 16 points the nasdaq higher by 22. The s p 500 up by almost 5 lets look at whats going on with the bitcoin action. What a week its been for cryptocurrencies with bitcoin the predominant one that we look at here. You can see just about flat for the cboe and the cme futures contracts. But for coin base and bitstamp trading, we are higher by 2. 5 and 5 federal regulators are raising the red flag on bitcoin backed funds the s. E. C. Detailing their concerns with cryptocurrencies among the issues, bitcoins volatility and its potential liquidity. Last year the s. E. C. Rejected two proposed bitcoin etfs saying the market was not transparent enough to regulate lets talk more about this with alex scaggs from the Financial Times. Its been a fascinating week for bitcoin particularly as it relates to regulation, whether u. S. Based or international. Its recovered a bit in the last day or so. How serious is the threat of regulation that weve heard about in the last couple of weeks, and which region or country do you think is the most significant to look out for . So i think that its really interesting that bitcoin is basically setting up to be this governmentless Payment System and currency regulators still do control the downra onramps and offramps the s. E. C. Put in new regulations that could hurt funds, in the u. S. That could affect Retail Investor adoption of bitcoin so the u. S. Is a big market. So i think that that will probably affect the price a little but its tough to say. I think it really affected the price to see that chinese regulators ended up cracking down a bit on bitcoin, because the chinese adoption has been pretty big so it should be interesting to see from here. Its been all over the place yes, it has because of that we sort of dont know what reversion to the mean is we have heard some analysts say thats maybe what this move is and the pullback is. Is this just the result of fear of selling because of the potential of regulations from south korea, china, potentially here with whats going on with the s. E. C. In is this just fear selling or are we going to figure out somewhere thats a little bit close to this reversion to the mean relatively soon well, what is the mean . Like you said, the price has been all over the place. I think it was breasting to see t interesting to see the rally we got after the cme allowed Bitcoin Futures to trade that Regulatory Approval helped. Even just thinking about where things have stabilized, the volatility of the thing has been huge and its almost impossible to know what its worth. Alex, thank you very much for joining us alex scaggs the Financial Times. Still ahead, more on the big ththatasattle in the senate e re of a Government Shutdown looms hi. Im dave nemeth. Television talkshow host and, until recently, a hair loss sufferer. Thats right i used to have a bald spot right here on the back of my head. And being seen by millions on tv, it was embarrassing. Thats when i turned to hair club, the numberone customized hair loss Solution Provider in north america. Today, my bald spot is gone, and i feel 100 more confident. Im 52, and i look better now that i did when i was in my 40s i love it. I really do. It has changed my outlook on life. 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I know it looks good. [ nemeth ] this was me before going to hair club, and this was me by the end of my visit. The moment you see yourself with hair again, youll wish youd done it sooner. Call and set up your free hair analysis at a hair club near you. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Were sort of mixed on futures it comes off a slightly soft day. Yesterday the dow was down about 0. 4 the s p and nasdaq just slightly lower. Were now higher across the screen treasuries for you, yields moved noticeably higher. Yesterday the tenyear well through 2. 6, now at 2. 62 the fiveyear above 2. 4, which was the level for so long that we hovered around for the tenyear retail has been on fire so far this year with the retail etf, the xrt up nearly 5 . Will this trend continue in 2018 lets bring in mary epner. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. Holt dthe holiday numbers, bn large the big numbers were strong what do you think, do you think this is temporary or do the fundamental problems that existed in july and august of this year still exist . Will that piull us back down lower . A couple of things are happening. Im optimistic for 2018. This is the year of the customer if the customer is not getting the most out of his or her retail, its time to switch retailers. Its about the product and services to get you into the store. Its their responsibility not just to give a discount but

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