Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20171219 : comparemela.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 19, 2017

But it did not close above that level. We saw the major averages give back by the end of the day some off the morning highs well keep a close eye on this this morning green arrows indicated once again this morning dow futures up by 57 points. S p up by 4. 5 points the nasdaq up by 8. 5 points. Look at asia, the nikkei gave back some grounds. Hang seng up by 0. 7 the shanghai was up by 0. 9 . Then if you check things out in europe, its a mixed bag ftse up by a quarter percentage point. The dax and cac are weaker stocks in italy are down stocks in spain slightly higher. Check out crude oil prices you will see that crude oil looks like it is up about 29 cents. 47 57. 45 for wti. We are watching a couple big stories this morning were learning more about that deadly amtrak crash in Washington State yesterday three people were killed, nearly 100 more injured when the train derailed the ntsb confirmed that the train was traveling at 80 Miles Per Hour in a 30mileperhour zone the crash left several railcars on the roadway and dangling from a bridge separately, belgian food company greenyard is in advanced talks to acquire dole foods. Many of us know dole when we see a banana with a little dole sticker on it. Its been considering an ipo reuters says the greenyard deal could value dole at 2 2. 5 billion. Greenyards current market cap is 1 billion the company said they secured appropriate financing and can complete the transaction if the deal is reached. A pair of economic reports on the agenda. November Housing Starts and Third Quarter current account are out. Minneapolis fed president , Neel Kashkari is speaking this afternoon, first he will join squawk box at 7 10 a. M. Eastern. Carnival and Darden Restaurants report before the open after the close results from fedex, micron and recent ipo stitch fix. Its voting day for tax reform the house is expected to start the process early this afternoon. Ylan mui has more. We hear more republicans signing up saying they will vote yes on this republicans have been campaigning on this promise of tax cuts for 30 years. Now they appear to be on the verge of turning it into reality. The house is expected to pass the tax bill this afternoon with the senate wrapping up its vote likely tonight thanks to critical support from two new gop senators first, mike lee of utah who held out for a bigger Child Tax Credit he tweeted he believes the bill will cut taxes for utah families and he proudly supports it then Susan Collins of maine delivered her enendordorsement e bill from the senate floor yesterday. I will cast my vote in support of the conference agreement on the tax cuts and jobs act while it is by no means perfect, unbalanced this reform bill will provide much needed tax relief it will benefit lower and middle income families while spurring the creation of good jobs and greater Economic Growth. There is still one holdout. Senator jeff flake of arizona his office told us late yesterday hes still undecided flake supported an earlier version of the bill, but thatis gotten from gop leadership to work on a permanent fix for the children of undocumented immigrants now that issue is getting punted into 2018. So depending on where flake lands, republicans may need to call on the Vice President to cast the tying vote. Ylan mui, thank you very much i think dole, i think pineapp pineapples we were a ba flan that fn ba family dole bought the whole island of lanai when you think of hang seng, dont you think hang ten the hawaiian stock market would be hang ten. Then i think of case pineapples because he owns a lot of that land yes over there. I think in maui. Right any way, we have a couple of fat cat investment types that probably know all they probably own land in hawaii. Lets get to these guys. Markets are closing at record highs with the nasdaq hitting a significant milestone. Here is phil orlando, mega bucks. Chief equity Market Strategist from federated investors you got to be compounding since you were an original guest host 23 years ago on squawk box. Just compounding that earnings power you got to be, right absolutely. This is killing you this tax bill, right . Theres folks saying this is a giveaway to the rich i know. I love that. My accountant says be prepared to pay more and drew mattis from metlife investment management. You cover the gdp stuff. Youre still not sold. Why 2. 5 . I havent put the tax cut in yet. What should it be with the tax cut . 2. 7 its creeping up towards 3 would you be surprised if it was 3 . No. So its possible. What about this quarter were in now, the new york fed says maybe 4 handle, indiana 3. 3. Ill split the difference, upper 3s what signs are you seeing that that is moderating from the last three quarters . Even with the hurricane, it was 3. 3. Why is it moderating back down to 2. 7 what are you seeing . Consumers . The question is how long can the consumer keep doing all this kind of spending and activity. How do they begin . Do Savings Rates continue to decline . Are they already low enough . When do we get wage acceleration i expect wage accelerate towards the end of next year if we get that, the numbers for next year look good. Orlando is not someone who shies away from saying what he believes you know what his s p target is for next year . What . 3,000 we have people coming in im at 2760, 2790 about 11 from where we are now. Double digits that tracks to 2700 this year, thats pretty much where we are this whole thing from preelection to where we are now to where we think we will be a year from now is tracking along the lines of what we think will happen were excited to drews point, we have a 3. 2 gdp estimate for the Fourth Quarter, in part because we thought we would have a good christmas we get the retail Sales Numbers from november the other day, they crushed it. The atlanta fed went from 2. 7 or 2. 8 up to 3. 2 or 3. 3 on the basis of that number the economy is track the way we think. Consumer confidence is up. Labor market is good when does the fed play into this with the idea that they may raise rates more aggressively than the market is anticipating . Were right there weve got two hikes next year. I think the dot plots are saying three. Some folks think four. The one thing that is holding us back, aside from the fact that powell, assuming he gets through on confirmation, is a little more on the dovish side, much like yellen was. Core pc inflation is still sitting at 1. 4 . We think that will grind up over the next couple of years we dont think that goes from 1. 4 to 2. 5 instantly. Thats going to be a slow grind. I think that will keep the fed on the dovish side we agree with phil. We have two hikes pencilled in we think the tenyear yield wont move up that much. That will restrain how fast the fed wants to move. They want to go faster theyre not going to be willing to invert the yield curve. Phil, you dont do gdp forecasts. We do gdp forecasts where do you have it . 3 . You are at 3 yeah. I think were at or near the high on the street i know. What does that reflect guys that make forecasts, they look at the past and just its a higher trend growth. We do have a higher i think the single biggest mistake a lot of investors have made over the last year has been allowing their political biases to influence investment judgment folks i talk to down in the 2 neighborhood have a more pessimistic view i see guys that i know are democrats that are investment analysts and every one of them attributes everything thats happening to synchronous Global Growth but thats weird at least it should be somewhat agnostic maybe it is synchronous growth maybe half of them, it would be there. The other half would be could be dragged kicking and screaming into the reality that maybe deregulation and animal spirits and pro business investment, maybe that has something to do with it. But theyre so blinded by their antitrump bias, they cant say anything but synchronous Global Growth every time we go up 200 points in the morning, someone came to the conclusion that europe is growing. That day they came to that conclusion 35 in the market. Its it didnt happen in the last three, four years that europe was growing only this year youre spot on. The animal spirits, the resumption of animal spirits is an Important Role in this, in terms of better consumer confidence, Better Business confidence that will accelerate once we know what is in the Corporate Tax plan and businesses work on their 2018 forecasts one thing we hear is that business wont take this 2 2. 5 trillion, repatriate assets and do anything with it. Then they begin to factor it into the spending plans. I think well see a good year out of consuming spending over the course of 2018 as far as inflation goes, is it is the figures that we see, are those do those accurately describe the world right now . Theres system of these disinflationary forces, amazon, the internet, is there no commodity inflation . There is inflation. Why dont we see it were not far off the target. If you look at the year over year numbers, if you have a month where you have things like mobile phone costs dropping by multiple Percentage Points in a month, that affects the year over year rate for 1 mon2 months so those factors create this downward pressure. Thats what i think the fed is struggling with. We had that with mobile phones healthcare was quirky last month, probably wont do the same thing in the pcs. Pc numbers could be stronger than the cpi numbers we saw. And, you know, people are struggling with this what theyre really looking for is wage inflation. Thats coming. The tightness in the labor market is evident. The job openings are at an alltime low if you wanted to hire someone now, good luck finding a qualified person why havent wages gone up . It hasnt been long enough it takes a while for the Hr Department to come back and say you have not found anyone. Maybe we need to think about the Job Description were looking for. Maybe we need to push the wage rate up a bit. Though a those all take time. Theres a 3 to 6month lag there. Were in the middle of that lag period when it happens, it will happen fast gentlemen, thank you. Kudos to you guys with your ties and the suspenders. Stepping out last night of hon kashanukka, christmas next week. You guys are green and red, too. Kind of a marine red. Ill have to started wearing some christmas fare. Is it blue . What color blue. I dont know if i have enough stuff. When we come back, well talk to dan more dhead, the ceof a bitcoin fund that launched when boitcoin was 72 at the time he wrote it was like buying microsoft when shares were 22 cents. He will be with us after the break. Its all yours. Wow record time. At cognizant, were helping todays leading Life Sciences companies go beyond developing prescriptions to offering subscriptions with personalized, realtime advice for lifelong, healthy living. Honey . You almost done . Nope. Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. Show of hands. Lets get started. Who wants customizable options chains . Ones that make it fast and easy to analyze and take action . How about some of the lowest options fees . Are you raising your hand . Good then its time for power e trade the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. Alright one quick game of rock, paper, scissors. 1, 2, 3, go. E trade. The original place to invest online. Theres a reason for this song if it seems like youre getting more spam phone calls than you used to youre right complaints to the u. S. Donotcall registry rose to more than 7 million this year. New jersey got hit the worst there were 36 complains for every 1,000 new jersey residents, which i totally buy into delaware, florida, virginia and New Hampshire all logged more than 27 complaints bper 1,000. The most common topic was debt reduction, time shares, warranties and medical issues. I will summarize what they are after this there could be relief in sight. Earlier this year, phone companies were given more power to block robocalls theres no manpower its disgusting. Theres been times where i tried to get a person on the line, just to yell at them they dont take you off the donotcall list the first one they call, im calling about your credit card theres no problem with your card, but theyre trying to theyre not talking about a credit card you have theyre trying to sell another one. Another one, you can immediately lower your electricity bill. Its solar panels. And the one i hate, we sent you the last notice for the warranty on your car. They didnt send a notice. They always talk about a car i got rid of three, four years ago. You listen to them way too long as soon as i hear the machine, i say click. I get them on the phone what kind of car do i have do you still have a ford flex . You tell me. You september nt me a thing. Other times i say, you should be if theyre recording me, i will get in trouble. I say you should be in jail for doing this i get six of these a day i get them on my cell phones i get more than that. Im ready to rip out the home phone. Thats all that comes in on the home phone what i want to do is say listen, whatever you got, i want do it, but i think theyd faint. Years ago when my brother was in college he worked at one of these places he stayed two months he got youre our longest serving employee thank you for staying so long. You dont get these you have someone answer your phone. We dont answer the home phone. If youre home during the day what about your cell very few on the cell phone. I have your number. Youll start calling me ill say what it is its horrible. The ceo of one of the surging cryptocurrency related stocks is sounding the alarm on the craze. Shares of longfin jumped 1,342 in two days after agreeing to buy a Company Called ziddu, but longfin dropped more than 18 in after hours trading following comments last night on fast money. He said longfins 3 billion plus market cap is not a reality. Its not justified. Its insane. Im developing good country, there are people dragging this market this market cap is not justified. If you look at my revenues, i valued my ipo pricing. Look at it i valued my ipo pricing at 5. 3 300 million five times my revenue. Our next guest got into bitcoin when it was trading at 72. The fund is up more than 25,000 since the inception. Dan morehead is pantera founder ceo. Congratulations on catching the wave where do you think we are on the wave i think for the big blockchains like bitcoin, ethereum and ripple, were in the first innings. Theres going to be some ups and downs. But this could be a big up. Could there be a big down . It could be down 50 next week thats where it was a movrnth a. In a years time it will be higher than today. Whats the intrinsic havivalf bitcoin . Its like a payment rail, a digital gold, getting around correspondent banking. You come up with a number thats an order of magnitude or two higher than todays price. So, i will make it complicated. I ran into a guy on the street yesterday, he stopped me on the street he mines bitcoins. Thats what he does. He stopped you . He stopped me to talk about bitcoins out of norway, other places where its cold, electricity costs are low. So the server farms can do this. I said whats your whats the cost for you at this point of mining a bitcoin he said we can do it for about 1250 per bitcoin. Yep isounds like i should be in the from an arbitrage perspective, i would rather be in the mining business rather than owning bitcoins that seems to be the same play, plus i can make them exactly thats what sucked a ton of people into it and most ended up going bankrupt its a difficult business. Its growing so quickly. You have to design the chip, fabricate the chip and roll it out within weeks or you will miss the opportunity explain that for those of us who dont understand i know enough to be dangerous but not know what youre talking about. There was a period it was doubling every six weeks if your chips get stuck in customs for three weeks, you will lose 30 of the value these are the chips that are processing this. Yeah. The price of mining a bitcoin is the price of a bitcoin capitalism works if its 1200 bucks to make something worth 18,000, tons will flow in. Right now, thats whats happening. Yeah. The price is gapped. So theres a chance for the people that established production to make some money. If youre trying to build a chip now and ship it, a lot of people already thought of that. A lot of chips are being bought now. The price will come up to 18,000 youre sense in terms of you said you think it will go higher along the way what is it that would take it lower . Theres all kinds of regulatory risks, speculative risks. The main part of the story is 95 of Institutional Investors have zero exposure to blockchain they will get exposure over the next 18 months that will push the market higher where are you Bitcoin Ethereum and zcash . Theres a lot of Nervous Energy people have i have to pick the winner. Will be bitcoin, ethereum or bitcoin cash thats not how you do a stock portfolio. You dont say ill put all of my net worth in google. Im never buying apple, netflix, facebook you buy a portfolio. I was talking to my wife last night about this she doesnt know a lot about this she says why dont i start my own you know, ecoin tomorrow yeah. Why cant we all just started our own electronic currencies tomorrow and we can she said that to me in the most simple way i said youre right and thats a problem. Bitcoin is just open door software you can copy it and make squawk coin if you could get 40 Million People to use it, it would have value. Its just hard to get 40 million to use it. We found people are not using it as a currency i have a Better Business idea photo sharing. You can set up a photo sharing site, if you can get 2 billion people to use it, it will be more valuable than facebook. Its just difficult. Bitcoin already did it its been there for nine years its 24 7 uptime its hard to compete with. We look forward to watching your success and the success of bitcoin. If youre watching, we have photo sharing as a business to get into. When we come back, the rise

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