Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20171127

Back in october. Right here on fast money. Mike novogratz is back hes here exclusively. But, first, we start off with breaking news, the embargo lifting now on the fed chair nominee Jerome Powells testimony ahead of his confirmation hearing tomorrow. Lets get to Steve Liesman with the details. Thank you very much Jerome Powell, the fed chairman nominee, nominated earlier this month by President Trump, will say in testimony before Senate Banking tomorrow he expects rates to rise, quote, somewhat further and the Balance Sheet to gradually shrink he pledges to preserve the feds independent nonpartisan status and says transparency and accountability must accompany that fed independence. Thats a nod to some critics, particularly from the Republican Party in the senate and in congress he says he will look for ways to enhance that transparency and accountability but goes on to say, i am a strong supporter of current fed structure. Thats a bit of pushback on some we want to change that structure in congress. Goes on to say, his aim or the aim of the fed is to sustain a strong jobs market and will have gradually rising inflation the fed must retain the flexibility to adjust policies another bit of a pushback against those who want to do a Monetary Policy rule here is a couple of quotes, we must be prepared to respond with appropriate force to new and unexpected threats to our nations Financial Stability and economic prosperity. Reading between the lines there, a little bit, that is a pushback against those who might take away some of those powers, even a bit of concern on his part about some of the powers taken away from the fed in the financial crisis after the financial crisis in the dodd frank reform goes on to state Financial System is stronger, more resilient than a decade ago and supports the higher capital levels of banks, but goes on to say, well continue to consider appropriate ways to ease regulatory burdens while preserving core reform melissa, a bit of subtext here where the chair nominee talks about certain issues that are likely to come up and sort of laying out how he feels about those ideas, ultimately it sounds like a very much status quo idea when it comes to Monetary Policy with perhaps a bit more give when it comes to the regulatory side. Doesnt sound like much of a departure. Within these comments you have read, does he say much about inflation, about the prospect of inflation gaining some steam just the one notion that he expects to have a strong job market with inflation gradually rising towards the feds target. That is a big question given what janet yellen said last week about her being uncertain that the current low inflation is transitory the last comments that i saw he made, he made to me, in august, in jackson hole, he said, low inflation is a bit of a mystery. But he hasnt spoken since then and we dont know if he is more uncertain than he was back in august. Probably even more of a mystery at this point. Hasnt done anything since that period of time reading through these comments, what do you think will be sort of the touch points that congressional leaders will actually just latch on to . It will be interesting to see how much the fed is a political issue now, melissa there are four members of the Senate Banking committee i would point out that voted against Jerome Powell when he was a nominee of president obama and now apparently theyre expected to vote for him, mike crapo said he voted against powell as a protest vote against the nominees of president obama. Now hell be asked to vote for Jerome Powell as fed chairman. Im not hearing a lot of discussion about the fed right now. It is more about tax cuts in congress and it is interesting to point out that the fed is sort of off the boil when it comes to the political discussion with a lot of the opponents of the Federal Reserve in congress, they really lost this battle in the white house when President Trump picked Jerome Powell there were other more controversial nominees who might have brought the fed and the policy more to the fore. Thank you Steve Liesman at headquarters for us what do you think of the comments we need to hear more and more about how sounds like status quo, you heard gradually, you heard decisively, it is interesting over the last three weeks, couple of months even, you heard different fed members talk about different measures of inflation and what might be more appropriate. We have been critical. Ive been critical i think many have been critical of using the pce thats a measure of inflation, personal consumption expenditures is one the fed looks at and in that regard theyre getting inflation still well below 2 . With the labor market that has run out of slack, dallas fed governor this morni ing rob kapn pointed out the market im worried about a stock market where market cap to gdp is 135 . We havent been this high since 1999 he talked about inflation. You know, within the fed, i think were getting a different dialogue and i, you know, i applaud the transparency i think people have never believed that transparency and they have been nothing but well see, right . If you look at what happened with the dollar a little stronger but completely reversed on this, so the market is telling you there is not a lot in this speech that is going to change but it says to me, that still the most important chart, the equity investors, is tlt you see tlt dropping and ten year yields to 3 , thats your warning sign if youre a stock market investor and thats what the speech to me and what well see tomorrow is saying, that were going to get higher rates, that could be an issue for the equity market. Not just the Federal Reserve that dc is dealing with here in fact, it is a whole slate of things call it the days of our dc lives, the stack calendar on capitol hill, 11 working days to congress until the rest of the year and some of the most important legislation out of the Trump Administration hanging in the balance. With everything from the debt ceiling to tax reform still on the table, is this the recipe that could wreck the rally pointing to your end, a seasonally strong time. Or the recipe that gives fuel to the year end rally. Look at it that way as well. It could wreck this rally without question something will get jammed through in the way of tax reform and regulation by the end of the year im not certain it will be exactly what both sides want, but something will get done. I think the market will interpret that as bullish information. And i think this rally will continue whether or not we can have a conversation about the Federal Reserve, we can talk about the 210 spread at 60 basis points and moving at an alarming pace, tony dwyer would talk about this being a bullish opportunity and a buying opportunity equities market, there is something going on instead of being something that will derail the rally, this is something that will add fuel to the fire. Maybe it is a little wish casting. We have a few dates that we can look out to and this budget deal is a really important one. And there is other issues other than just the budget that will come to fore with this thing you have a hand full of things six republican senators now on the fence, for this tax deal i dont think well get this passed anytime soon. Well get to the budget thing. I think things will remain very political. I dont think well have some sort of grand compromise there we have december 12th, this set election in alabama, which is proven to be a bit of a mess i think the republicans have a difficult scenario no matter what happens down there. At the end of the day, we have a situation where we could be all through december, things could really be as volatile as they have been, dont have tax reform in the year end and we have a very ugly january. Do you really think that theyre not going to pass tax reform if they dont pass tax reform, theyre not going to get reelected to me, i dont know. Think about this, guys, we know what the majority is in the senate, three senators in the Republican Party not running for reelection, okay. One of them derailed the whole Health Care Bill they derail it because it is in their best interest this isnt in the best interest. You know what the senate adds to the tax bill, a repeal of the original mandate. With your view with my view what do you do . What you to do in your portfolio . I think you have to be cautious as you think about into january. There is not going to be a full on selloff in december. I think people have a lot of really good games and almost every risk asset you can imagine. At the end of the day, i think if tax fails, youll have a bipartisan tax plan reform, real reform, not cuts, reform in 2018, that sell your gains in 2018 and youre more likely to have lower tax rate. So pessimistic, very optimistic. What is going to happen you think if this doesnt go through, we then ultimately get to need to do if you go back and get reelected in the midterms wait, you have a ruling majority, you cant get anything done, all of 2017, you got to show your constituents that youre working for them, and youre willing to go across the aisle and get something done. Lets be really clear, this is a market that is extremely bullish even though it is off of the record highs, still extremely bullish. Cash levels back to 2013, people talked about the cash from the sidelines, a lot of cash in this market the market in january, thats also lets talk about december, enjoy that, january clearly has been the nastiest month of the year outside of september for the last decade. Thats a place write thiplace w have to be very cautious something gets jammed in i think a lot of people believe they can get something done whether it has something to affect the economy the economy is doing fine right now. Is something done enough to keep us at these levels . For december, yeah. Absolutely, for december it is very difficult to have the markets sell off in december, particularly when you have one, the seasonality, the gains, why would i sell anything before next year. What do you do with your portfolio . I think the most prudent thing to do is protect the portfolio into january the one thing i would agree with dan on is that come january, you could see a lot of tax law selling that didnt take place in december, so why not buy some puts on your portfolio out to january. You can learn about that on a show on friday, right . 5 30. Lets say that as dan has outlined, tax reform doesnt really get passed, gets punted for some reason, that the Budget Discussion is extremely political, but then on the other side, you got extreme seasonality, people who made good gains on the year what wins . We tread water to the end of the year sideways to slightly higher. My scenario, where something gets ratcheted through, you got another maybe 3 to 5 upside potentially in the month of december you could see one of these year end meltups that we have seen before january is a whole different issue. What we saw in january, it was last january, we had down 18 to 20 . Pretty significant move. But in december, i think, market continues to get higher. You look below the surface, this is lake placid on the surface, looks lovely. You look below the surface, there is a lot of stuff, growing numbers of 52 week lows, got the transports not cooperating, financials are not cooperating these are places to be cautious, even though the headline looks okay. For more, lets bring in Rebecca Patterson. Good to see you again. Good to see you too what do you think . Lake placid or what is going on here in the markets . The dock on the surface with the feet no one knows exactly what is going to happen with the tax reform, tax bill i dont think the legislators even know exactly what will happen it is all negotiations right now. Were all investing on the back of probabilities i think they would love to jam something through, especially before the election in alabama because the numbers relatively speaking are more on their side. But can they get the reconciliation done. Thats the hard part even if the senate gets its bill done by this friday, can you reconcile it before year end with Everything Else on the legislative agenda really hard. Not impossible, but really hard. I think to the point earlier they need something done politically before we get to the spring Midterm Election Campaign Season so whether it is now or later, i think it is still coming to the point of can the market go up without it, at the end of the day, i come back to what is the economic underpinnings of this we got home sales today that were extremely strong going up the last three months in a row, jobless claims still near cycle lows, Unemployment Rate at decade lows, and you know whether were looking at business sentiment, consumer sentiment, both coming out later this week staying near highs, so if you get a dip on disappointment around legislation and the shortterm, i think it is probably a dip that is going to get bought. The global economy, the u. S. Economy is still doing very well and i think they probably will get something done, whether it happens in december or at some point in q 1, i mean, if i knew that, i would be a rock star you are a rock star so if i were a client, rebecca, and said im concerned with the markets at record highs right now, im feeling very uncomfortable going into year end, tell me what to do. Yeah. I mean, i hear that all the time everyone is uncomfortable, right. Were all enjoying making good profits this year. You see the valuations and what is going on politically. It is scary. So i mean were telling our clients stay invested. If you are already invested, we run diversified portfolios, we have been early. We took some risk off the table. We have gone neutral on equities we have some defensive exposures in our equities. So we have lagged the market a little bit this year in part to be ready for when that downturn does come and i think thats a tradeoff, every individual investor has to think how they have to make it. If youre putting new money to work right now, i think as long as the economic fundamentals stay strong, youre okay but i think the point was made earlier inflation and how does the fed react. Starting in march next year, base effects will take Inflation Higher and then we start to see cpi and pc and all the feds favorite inflation metrics crawl higher does the fed go gradually, do they hike faster than expected to me, thats the answer to everything is that your number one concern . My number one concern is does inflation go higher than expected and what does the fed do Rebecca Patterson what did you do today . I didnt do much. Sat around and watched i thought the bond market was surprisingly strong, given it was an auction, not particularly good and the fact that rates stay stubbornly low i heard someone on closing bell saying that there was a a thing closed about huge influence into the bond market this year and what are people doing . Rates are going higher im not so sure rates are going higher maybe in the front end of the curb, not the back end of the curb i look at 2s, and 10s and think something is going on here. Last week it went parabollic, outperformed by 1800 basis points you can always get things cheaper. I do think some of this will come down, you look at the outsized move to the downside today. I think you can buy lower. Coming up, the man who called bitcoin hitting 10,000 last month is back. Mike is here, hes gone bolder call on the crypto currency. You will not want to miss it a top analyst just declared war on the chip stocks, according to one of ourtraders. Theyll tell you what it could mean for the hottest trades of the year later, amazons retail mania, the stock soaring as the company is worth nearly 600 billion but are the gains for this year pln ate anggests yes, we will exaiwh wme [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. It can provide what we call an unlock a realization that often reveals a better path forward. At wells fargo, its our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and Wealth Management firms in the country. Discover how we can help find your unlock. We thats why at xfinityic. Weve been working hard to simplify your experiences with us. Now with instant text and email updates youll always be up to date. You can easily add premium channels so you dont miss your favorite show. And with just a single word, find all the answers youre looking for. Because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. Download the xfinity my account app or go online today. Welcome back time for our move of the day check out smh, downmore than a percent after a couple of downgrades from Morgan Stanley samsung Western Digital getting a downgrade, micron also a loser on the day what do you make of this theyre talking about limited visibility beyond q 1 of this year you had a buildup, a memory supercycle, a lead up to it, not just smartphones, also servers a lot of buzzwords we have been talking about. At the end of the day, you have the smh up almost 50 year to date massively outperforming the nasdaq, nearly 2 x the performance. This makes a lot of sense. A lot of the performance in the Semiconductor Space has been m a driven were getting to the end of the cycle of megadeals maybe one or two left. To me, smh, you ask these guys, im adding to this position on the short side i think this is one that is very vulnerable in january. I think investors will try to hold on until the end of the year, but this is one in january i think i expect outside returns from the downside relative to Morgan Stanley said prices started to reverse in the Fourth Quarter of this year right now basically. Does this say anything about the end user of the memory no, i dont think it does something about the commoditization of certain parts of the memory and the chip world. You look at tsm, the adr, one of the biggest in the world, their call is that basically chips grow at gdp plus 200 to 300 basis points over the last decade there is different places these guys are seeing that kind of growth i think this is an economic call. Thats i think thats the thing you got to look at broaden it out and say, okay, this has been one of the leaders of the market here if im looking for warning signals, looking for the duck flapping its the ducks legs under lake placid, is im looking for that, this is the ducks legs, right this is where you might say, okay, some of the leaders are cracking here, and maybe not everything is great under the surface. I look at this saand say, warnig sign here, keep this as something to watch in 2018. One important point to make all equally important. The iphone 8 and iphone x, this year the entry level with 64 g gigabytes, the spread of 192 is massive. They never had that wide a spread you think about demand for nand in the leadup to the phones, that has a lot to do with it once we get by the next two quarters, you may see a dramatic dropoff. Stocks at record highs. What is wall street getting wrong about this rally quite a bit. But it could be a major buy sign well explain why. Im melissa lee. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in Business World wide heres what else is coming up on fast. Its the most wonderful time of the year not if youre amazon. Pau because history suggests the top might be in for the year well explain. Plus it would not surprise me if were over 10,000. Talk about a crypto baller of a call now, Mike Novogratz is back. And hell tell us where he sees crto currency going next when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Black friday weekend wasnt just a big one for retailers, but bitcoin as well, marching toward 10,000. Seema mody is back breaking it all down. What is striking is just the speed of the bitcoin rally the move from 8,000 to 9,000 took seven days. The fastest a thousand point jump on record for the crypto currency and at 9,586, the market cap reached 160 billion making it bigger than ge, boeing and disney coin base added an estimated 300,000 users just in the past week alone as more Retail Investors opened accounts during the holiday weekend. Coin base has more users than brokerage charles schwab, which in midnovember reported it h26 million users. While bitcoin continues to climb, more influential investors like ken griffin remain cautious. Here is what he said earlier today squawk alley. Bitcoin has many of the elements of the tullel ltulip b we saw back in holland this ends in tears, i wonder how this bubble might end. Next big test for bitcoin is the launch of the Bitcoin Futures contract set for december 10th as we were discussing seema, thank you. Seema mody with the latest on bitcoin. What do you make of this recent this are you tearing up . Im not tearing up. First of all, the tulip bubbbulb analogy, i cant point to exactly what tulip bulbs disrupted, so i dont know i think it is a terrible analogy. And people should stop using it. In terms of what drove this, the lottery retail buying, interesting to see the surge of buying after thanksgiving. So i put a little chart here together you see that small box where bitcoin and all the other currencies going down, thats during thanksgiving. People literally eating turkey, talking to family, telling them how great crypto currency is look at the surge. As soon as the banks open on friday, and money can come into the system, you get this massive surge of the three coins that are traded at coin base, which is where everybody is kind of the funnel that u. S. Investors are coming interesting. I think a lot of retail people said i want in on this trend. Back in october, galaxy Investment Partner ceo and Hedge Fund Legend Mike Novogratz called for it to rally to ,0 10,000. It would not surprise me if were over 10,000. Well need a couple of months it also doubled since that call, sitting at less than 500 buck away from the 10,000 mark how much higher could bitcoin go we brought mike back to answer those burning questions for us always great to see you. What is your next call put me on the spot. To start with, trees dont grow to the sky and the pace of this move has been really fast. So on one hand, lots of speculative sensors are out. The retail customers coming in, phone calls i get, gets a little nervous we have a shortterm top. On the other hand, i step back, im, like, wait a minute, the whole market capital, all the crypto is 300 billion thats nothing the nasdaq at its high was 6 trillion and the nasdaq was a u. S. Led, you know, bubble this is a global phenomenon. 60 , 70 of all Trading Volume and the cryptos are happening in japan and korea. And so i have a sense that this is going to go a lot further when i try to think of valuation. Bitcoin really is taking the use case of digital gold gold is 8 trillion or 7. 5 trillion and so at 150 billion, bitcoin, 30 times 40 times 50 times higher than here, then youre starting to look like bitcoin replaces gold or on parity so my shortterm call, i guess, is things have gone pretty far and maybe back fill a little bit. But over the medium term, you know, this thing will go a lot higher i said recently, i thought total market cap, by the end of next year would be trillion thats probably a little light but if it is a trillion to 2 trillion, thats 6 x from where we are now and thats not all going to go into bitcoin. 60,000 from where we are . Six times. Six times, okay. 6 times 200. Okay. 300. 6 times 300 billion gets you a 2 trillion market cap by the end of 2018. There is bitcoin, bitcoin cash, eos, all kinds of protocols. So what are the assumptions, you made the parallel to the nasdaq, during the bubble days, total market cap of the nasdaq back then what is the assumption, how high how high bitcoin could go is there an assumption in your i look at gold. Is it all the market cap of gold now why not each of these tokens represent individual ecosystems, right one for cloud computing, one for file sharing, one for online gambling, bitcoin is the ecosystem of digital money or Digital Store wealth and it is really more Digital Store wealth or digital gold and so if gold is 8 trillion, i dont understand why bitcoin cant get there. Mike, everybody asks me what derails this, what keeps you up at night we know it is working. You wake up and this one thing happens, what is it that scares you . I hate for myself to get hacked that would suck. But a really Major Exchange being hacked in a major way. We had plenty of small hacks, people small in comparison to market cap but a major hack or a real change of mind set on the regulators right now, most regulators have been working with the system, we work a lot ourselves with the regulators if for some reason they woke up and did an about face, that would be no good you mentioned that youre getting a little nervous about the speculative Federal Reservereserver fervor it is just below 500 how do you get all these people are opening up these hundreds of thousands of coin based accounts in the last couple of weeks. How do you talk to these people about what the opportunity is . You knew you could lose a few dollars when you paid a few dollars. Now it is 500 and really hard to talk about the longterm vision to 2 trillion and all of these, you know, how what i tell people, you know, the retail type customer, i said, you know, put 1 to 3 of your net worth in. If it goes down 50 , it is like buying 1 to 3 of google and it goes down 50 . For wealthier people who can afford a bigger loss, yeah, take it to 5 or 10 . But i dont recommend anybody throw their entire net worth into what is your net worth into how much is tied up in im probably over 20 at this point. And because it keeps going up, i take some off, why am i taking it off, maybe it is 30 . What do you think about futures . Launch futures for bitcoin december 10th is the date right now. What is it that do to bitcoin if anything does it suppress volatility, cause more volatility . I think in the short run, the future will not be as exciting as the people are hoping it will it is going to take a while for it to build liquidity. The really promising part of the future is when you have a future, you need a stock borrow. All of a sudden, a lending market in bitcoin. As soon as you have a lending market in bitcoin, you have an Interest Rate curve. And all of a sudden, bitcoin starts looking more like a currency than it ever did. It is very difficult right now, not an efficient market to borrow or lend against all of these coins. I think the future market will really accelerate that is there a trading opportunity surrounding the launch and the early days of Bitcoin Futures. I think this march of institutionalization of the whole crypto space is just a positive so the fact that the cmep prudentializing this is a huge win. Once it starts building liquidity, more access to the market. You mentioned that bitcoin with the yield curve could look more like a currency so what, if anything, does the future of bitcoin mean to currencies the u. S. Dollar, global currencies in the short run, nothing currencies need real stability i said this before, the dollar versus the yen, which i focused on very closely for 25 years of my life, never moves more than plus or minus 6 in a year maybe 10 . My wife once said, are you going to spend your whole career looking at that squiggly line. Bitcoin is moving too fast, too much volatility to ever be a currency this water cant cost a dollar one day and 6 a month later until there is real stability in price, it will be used also thats the exact reason why bitcoin isnt any kind of currency, that it is gold, you know, when is the last time you bought a pair of shoes in gold . Never. Or even a pair of shoes in a quarter of a google share, never. You cant speculate in currencies, when i think people are speculating in currencies all the time the ranges are levered up, smaller ranges you talk about the risk here and talk about you getting hacked. How do you protect a digital wallet what are people doing to the amount of wealth that they have stored here is almost this is the part that is difficult for me not difficult for me to see why it is going higher and why people want how do you protect yourself it was a small amount of money, didnt worry about it so much, becomes a big amount of money, you worry about it a lot. The exchanges, the custody places and places like us who sell custody and use custody, you take your keys off the internet called cold storage. You put your private keys on a computer in a safe, and put that safe in a really safe place. And thats safe. The percentage of your coins that you want to leave active to be able to trade back and forth, those have more risk now, lets say you put some on coin base and some on gemini and the various exchanges, each of those places is doing the same thing. Theyre keeping 90 of their coins off line so if i put 10 of my coins online, in ten different places, 1 in each, and theyre doing that, all of a sudden i have very, very little, you know, at risk to a hack and so thats why this is a lot safer than it feels. As long as youre using risk management. Im going to go back to the first question i asked you, your forecast for bitcoin give me a level for 2018, where do you see bitcoin going, very decisive in your interview and very listen, bitcoin can be at 40,000 at the end of the 2018. It really easily could and i think the theory, which i think will just touched 500 or getting close, could be triple where it is as well. There is a big wave of money coming, not just here, but all around the world and, you know, as we push more people into the system, both retail and institutional, what is different about these coins than other commodities, like when the price of oil went up to 150, what happened . Started drilling in the canadian tar sand, started going deep sea in brazil, started investing in solar and fracking and Everything Else, and there is a supply response. There is no supply response here it is a speculators dream in that as buying happens, there is no new supply that comes out so every price move gets exaggerated, exaggerated on the way up there will be 50 corrections it will get exaggerated on the way down. People read about the mining farms all over the world in china, they have huge warehouses and just filled with bitcoin min miners what it means is prices go higher, it gets more difficult to mine those coins because it is more valuable more people are chasing each coin there is a total amount of bitcoins ever mined, 21 million, apparently up to 3 million, 4 million lost forever so total supply of bitcoin is set. So the miners are used to authenticate and validate it. This is a question from my mother, who just opened her own account a couple of months ago, mom if youre listening, would you rather bitcoin or etherium or light coin . I have roughly half of bitcoin and half of etherium i dont like light coin as much. Seems like the poor mans bitcoin to me. Bitcoin and etherium have different use cases. Bitcoin is Digital Store wealth. And etherium is one of the contenders to be the ecosystem of the decentralized computer that most of these projects get built off of but im also spreading my bets because i learned in the chinese internet where i picked one company, which went to zero, or every other company would have made me a fortune, that nobody is smart enough to really understand how this future of industry that is changing as rapidly as this one is ive got lots of bets that says hedges in other ecosystems, you know, that makes it kind of like a half Venture Business and half long schourhore equity business Mike Novogratz. Interesting that mike talked about the mining and supply response we had this report that possibly 3 million to 4 million of bitcoin are lost or locked up or Something Like that. If you think about it, there is 21 million bitcoin that will ever be out there. 16 million in existence. Lets say there is 4 million that are lost that can never be moved. Now at 20 million. There is a million bitcoin left for people to buy in a sense so it is a massive i think that was part of the big move that we had, thats up 25 of the supply that has been taken out. So thats, i think, really interesting, one thing is very different like mike said about this versus commodities. Ill bring something up, steve grasso mentioned this, overstock was a 30 stock when steve started talking about it on the back of what they were doing on bitcoin the stock traded 65. 70 today i bring it up, it reversed to close down 9. 5 . Im not certain that overstock on a downgrade. On a downgrade, based upon this exact very interesting. What does it mean for the price . I dont know i think it is worth watching because the two were trading in tandem. One other point, what he just mentioned about mike mentioned about bitcoin versus etherium. It is more of a centric sort of thing. This is what companies and entire platforms are being built on to me, two very different things, store value at bitcoin, going to 40,000, but there will be a lot of opportunities built on etherium. Bitcoin to 40,000 next year is the price right, higher or lower . Ill go out on a limb, ill go higher, i dont know if it goes higher from exactly here, might get a dip first. Ill say higher. Still ahead, amazon soaring to new highs after crushing black friday if history is any indication, the top could be in for the year well explain, plus, it is a rally that wall street just cant get behind missing the mark this year and looks like there is a bunch of timid bulls this year too. That might be a good tng fhior the market much more fast money after this. Lets get started. Show of hands. Who wants customizable options chains . 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I think it is pretty safe to say that the online behemoth did rule the day when were talking about records, are they hitting a record, it depends what your benchmark is prime day was amazons biggest day. It was 30 hours, so maybe that counts for something, last cybermonday, amazon shipped 64 million items from the customer orders thats the benchmark number were looking to beat for today. 44 of online sales on average day come from amazon thats according to market here. Dan ives thinks that black friday and cybermonday could have closer to 50 for amazon. Well have to wait and see if we get any of those actual metrics. The shares hit an all time high today, pretty rare for amazon on cybermonday. As a matter of fact, in the last five years, only one time in 2012 were amazon shares higher on cybermonday all other cybermondays in the last five years, those shares were lower adobe says as of 4 30 p. M. , 3. 8 billion was spent online, thats up 16. 8 year over year. The estimates for a full day is well see sales hit 6. 6 billion online that would be a record. We know thats dwarved in comparison when we look at the single days, more than 25 billion. 6. 6 is the number that were looking to hit lets see if we can do it and if amazon can help us get there. Courtney reagan, thanks so much in a forest near an Amazon Fulfillment Center apparently. Despite the recordbreaking news see the trees in the back ground, like, white, beautiful, straight trees. Birch, scary. For the past eight years going back to 2009, amazon has underperformed the market in six of eight times from cybermonday, leading into the end of the year, even through the Holiday Season so should you still buy amazon once the cybermonday craze is over or is this year going to be different . Listen, the stock gapped up to the all time highs today. Like courtney said, never traded that way on cybermonday. It closed on the lows. The stock is up 22 or so from its q 3 earnings report. I think there is an enthusiasm baked in here. You look at the backdrop of just how few other retailers their stocks are performing, we know walmart is doing very well i say to myself, i dont know, there say lot of enthusiasm captured in two stocks here. Seems look a difficult setup into the new year. To me, i think you get this thing back towards that breakout level. 50 or Something Like that. Thats probably a better level. I think amazon, always seems like priced to perfection. We had a couple of events that made you feel like amazon could do no wrong. What is different about this cybermonday, a lot of the other retailers are in different position than they were. Inventory levels at a different place, a strategy in many cases an Online Presence that feels different even to a customer that is used to amazon ill take it from the other side i think it is all about market perception, the bar has been so low, the perception has been so low on the major retails, department stores, you name it i think thats why amazon is somewhat muted from here on out. The streets top strategist werent bullish enough this year it looks like theyre making the same mistake for next year why wont wall street go full bull we got a special report. Traders getting on one group of stocks with massively underperformed this year well tell you what it is after this break if youre on medicare, remember, the open Enrollment Period is here. The time to choose your medicare coverage. Begins october 15th and ends december 7th. So call unitedhealthcare to learn about. A plan that could give you the benefits youre looking for. 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You know where my mark is right now, im laysing everything that has to do with candy canes and eggnog tis the season for strategist target prices in the s p the early results look like the same playbook from early 2017 which is to say up market, but not up by that much. For example, you got Morgan Stanley mike wilson who put out a 12 month, 2750 target, 6 higher than now. Thats pretty okay Cfra Sam Stovall is predicting a percent or so higher from here, not raging bulls tony dwyer thinks 2800, thats about 8 , which is more on the bullish side jonathan gall at credit suisse, one of the higher targets so far early on in the season, 2875, close to 10 higher than here. It is not exactly like what wall street thought at the end of 2016 but the feeling is there bull, but not full bull. Now it is worth noting early on, among the folks who got it pretty close to right at the end of last year, calling this year end, then rbcs jonathan gallub, why are wall streets pay predictors more bullish on the market after not generally being bullish enough about this year it might be that were poised to have our seventh positive year in the last nine with only flat to very slight declines in those two other years. And double digit or very close to double digit increases during those seven years as well. It is fair to say that developments out of washington will be a big part of the story in the coming weeks and months and for more, on where strategists are starting to stack up when it comes to next year, go and check out the story on cnbc. Com now, well be tracking forecasts as they file in, and updating as they change. Back to you, melissa. Thank you very much why wont wall street go full bull raise their target to 3,000 . I go to the skeptic. I think a lot of people didnt expect to see these sorts of gains this year, no matter who won that election. I think part of it is just being a little careful in front of what isnt a whole heck of a lot of uncertainty, on the legislative front, on the stimulus front to me, you know, i get i get all the reasons, i get earnings expansion, whatever, but to me, at the end of the day, they make sense, especially as we get to q 1. What do i do with these forecasts in november of 2017 . Listening to them line up for 2018 not much. Not much what they also dont tell you is what is going to happen in the middle of the year a market, zero volatility, dont care who you talk to, to say it is going to have a nice calm lake placid with the duck or whatever youre doing underneath the surface, but clearly were in a place here write think there are a number of very big events and this is a market that is at a valuation very difficult to justify unless you see rates stay at 230 which does not equate to a economy growing. It is hard to keep the market down with 230. To be fair, to the strategists, they will change it over the year. Theyll evaluate as what is going on very difficult to look out a year from now, part of the job to say that. I think it is prudent to be cautious if youre the one out there, you know, you have a little bit of career risk, maybe not career risk, but lets call it embarrassment risk, youre the one out there having the highest thing. The rally, to be clear, it is the guys that were saying it wasnt going higher when it went higher that are out of jobs. Thats where you lose your job up next, check out this mystery chart. A rough month for this one group of stocks, but could this be your best chance to buy . Well tell you what traders are betting big on a turn around right after this you always pay your insurance on time. Tap one little bumper, and up go your rates. What good is having insurance if you get punished for using it . News flash nobodys perfect. For drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch and you could save 782 on home and auto insurance. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™ Liberty Mutual insurance. We thats why at xfinityic. Weve been working hard to simplify your experiences with us. Now with instant text and email updates youll always be up to date. You can easily add premium channels so you dont miss your favorite show. And with just a single word, find all the answers youre looking for. Because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. Download the xfinity my account app or go online today. Welcome back dan, what did you see . One large trade today when the kre was trading 5611 after the opening. Buyer 14,000 december 57 calls those things break even. Look at this right here, this is a little flag the chart has been in here, right about here. December expiration targeting the december 13th fed meeting. Real quickly here, as we go to the other chart, maybe this trader just sees a nice little flag there playing for a breakout between now and december. Thanks for that up next, final trades. Well, its earnings season once again. Yeah. Lot of Tech Companies are reporting today. And, hows it looking . I dont know. Theres so many opinions out there, its hard to make sense of it all. Well, victor, do you have something for him . Check this out. Td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. That way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. Huh. Feel better . Much better. Yeah, me too. Wow, you really did a number on this thing. Sorry about that. Thats alright. I got a box of em. Thousands of opinions. One estimate. The earnings tool from td ameritrade. This is not a cloud. This is a tomato tracked from farm to table on a blockchain, helping keep shoppers safe. This is a financial Transaction Secure from hacks and threats others cant see. This is a skyscraper whose elevators use iot data and ai to help thousands get to work safely and efficiently. This is not the cloud you know. This is the ibm cloud. The ibm cloud is the cloud for business. Yours. Final trade. Amazon, i think you sell some here dan xr 242. Novo. Hes getting it done. 40,000 easily. 40,000. Easily. Nordstrom i think that gets it done. Talk it down. Thanks for watching see you back here tomorrow at 5 00 for fast money. Mad my mission is simple, to make you money im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain you but to educate you so call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. When is a loss a good loss when is it a bad loss . What makes for