Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20171115 : comparemela.com

CNBC Closing Bell November 15, 2017

Evans. And im bill griffin. Weak day for stocks again. Off the lows, but not by as much as weve been lately weve seen a sell off each day this week and then weve come back come back a little bit but still down triple digits on the dow right now. Whats behind the move and whether this pullback is worth buying plus a top money manager from aria investments will give us her pick right now. Youll to want hear that coming up new developments for the at t time warner deal, including talk of a potential complaint coming from the Justice Department david favor will have the latest for us shortly plus you probably heard President Trump set to speak at the white house in the next half hour or so after returning from that 12 day trip to asia well bring that to you live as soon as it gets under way. Going to talk about a number of things including taxes and trade and other things as well lets start though with this sell off day, the dow down more than 160 points at its low this morning, bob has more on whats behind this sell off again, bob. Hello, six down days in a row. We have opens down six days in a row. Havent had that in more than a year i want to show you the s p 500 chart. The reason is every day the last six days, weve opened at or near the lows, and then come off of the lows to go into the close. Say the s p is down 20, 22 points at the close, that would be the reversal of the trend, thatll get a lot of people talking. Only 1 from the historic high a week ago theres some cracks showing out there. Weve been talking about the transportation stocks. Thats a real weak part of the market right now weve seen poor Earnings Results down, almost 20 this month. Fedex, csx, transport, ups, broad swath of stocks down 4 or 5 materials were also a market leader, they were earlier, but also showing some signs of weakness, dow there, of course which is a dow component down almost 6 on the month freeport, down about 3 . Were seeing an expansion of new lows, not new highs, but new lows on the New York Stock Exchange century link, archer daniels, whirlpool, and vinny, come over here, dow component that did a 52 week low and thats merck right here its been a while since new lows guys, back to you. Theres been weakness in biotech lately century link, i think bob is like a 20 year low over there in that telecom is upsetting high yield too. Theres theres definitely pockets here of weakness and we mentioned the russell 2000, weve been talking about that the last four or five days. Thats notably been underperforming for a while. Thats an issue related to tax reform because small cap stocks would benefit this proportionately from any Tax Deductions that started in early october. Thats been around a while too thanks bob lets get to the Closing Bell Exchange with all of that stuff there, we are joined from the partners, hes at post nine with keith bliss now the glass was suddenly half empty for the stock market, what are you guys talking about here on the floor well some of the points that bob just made with the return are important to look at, but one of the things were really focussed on is whats happening until the high yield market if you look at the etf thats cracks the hyg which we have vastly oversold at this point in time we would expect that were all talking about the coal mine, and the coal mine are still in our collective conscious from seven or eight years ago. Were looking at that a little warily one thing thats important to note about the strength as the cap point to that, the strength to the market as you said, we started off with the big selloffs on the open and trade higher through the day and we start higher. We are moving down lower, but were still not oversold yet in the Broader Markets. 23,000 on the dow. Talked about where are people going to set up a good bid in the market i think thats when we get down to that level, around 2515, 2520 watch those levelings right now. It could continue for some time. I dont think its the be all end all and real correction that everybody not everybody, but a lot of people are looking for. We will see weakness in this the other important point that you were just talking about is the russell 2000 and thats a tax debate problem thats also a yield curve problem because you remember the broader makeup of the group, our financials in nature and theyre being whammied a little bit by that flattening yield program and whats going to be the aspects of that going forward. Ben, you guys try to look for those cheap names lets call them in the market that everybody else is overlooking, hasnt been a good year for trades like that talk to us about some of the places that you do see value here and whether an overall market skit like this may be creates some opportunities for what you do. Sure. So we look for misunderstood, not wellcovered companies that really wall street has forgotten about and particularly as this market moves more and more into, you know, passive and etfs, it creates a lot more opportunities for us and so one company that were really excited about is regis corporation, which is the largest hair salon operator in the country and they have a new ceo thats come in, hugh sawyer who wl are refocussing on refranchising and growing their companyowned stores, but hes taking out extensive costs just sold off one of their salon concepts and we think this stock, which is around 14 today has a potential to go to 20, if not 25 over time. We think theres lots of pockets of smaller opportunities in these stocks the talk of the flattening yield curve, on the twos and tens that its been in about a decade here. The dollar index continues lower. The Inflation Numbers came in low. Oil continues lower, do you think the market is starting to sense the slowdown economically here is that whats going on, do you think . You know, i think that the market is sensing a bit slower, im not sure if its sensing a full blown slowdown. If you look at some of the numbers in europe and even to some extent in japan and you forget all the negatives they have with negative rates and the central banks, the data lately doesnt look too bad and with respect to the u. S. , yes, we have the nine Inflation Numbers, retail sales might not have been something to celebrate, but it wasnt a bad number we have seen certain things recede a bit whether it was michigan or philly fed, some of the more qualified numbers that are less quantitative, but still important, but i dont think its which looked like it jumped when we saw the rates move ten year move closer to 240, but its dribbled away, were down half a dozen basis points on 30 year bonds. The other issue was mentioned by keith bliss and that is whats going on in high yield and theyre also, its a cautionary tale, by nothing to flash yellow or red. Hopefully youre looking at some charts, a one month chart in the barkley spread widen with hyg gets a little less pricey. And thats probably a good thing. Acting a little larger, but that made sense and its an etf, just a different animal keith, what about some of the selling pressure thats come right into our sessions from europe even from asia, whats going on there . Well, we certainly have seen a rotation of lately in the last week a rotation of money out of the emerging markets and out of some of the european markets in my mind is not all that unusual. Theyve had an excellent run, theyre going to recalibrate, looking at better riskadjusted returns coming into this market. Writ large, not in maybe individual names, but if you look at the Broader Market, ive said it for a long time, the u. S. Still remains the best risk adjusted return game in town and therefore theyre going to take their gains, move it out. It has created a bit of a momentum leap around the globe from session to session, i think thatll start to straighten itself out a little bit. Again, echoing ricks comments who echoed mine earlier, i think the bigger issue right now for the market outside of the tax debate shenanigans going on in washington is high yield thats got to get rectified in the next few sessions. Hyg has to catch a bid bring it back. Telecoms names need to get out and the market will start to stabilize a little bit more. Before we go, i know you take your stocks on a case by case basis. From a perspective, are you looking at the companies that could be hurt by the tax debate if they dont get the kind of relief they were hoping for and by the Monetary Policy thats going to start to see a little tighter money down the road here a little bit no. You know, we really focus on the small and microcaps part of the market, and in those companies, regardless of what goes on with the tax bill were going to continue to see it really well and so i think, you know, and i would contend that the economy is improving and, you know, maybe 18 to 24 months from now were going to have challenges, but as we talk to the companies on a case by case basis, they are very encouraged about the outlook for the economy. And theyre not focussed on the tax bill and all of these other things aechbts and they just continue to see improving demand and improving fundamentals in their core businesses. Were continuing to find very inexpensive stocks to buy in the small cap part of the market we are encouraged. All right very good. Thank you for joining us today good to see you, keith, rick, as always see you later, thanks. My pleasure bye uncertainty over tax reform is weighing a bit on the Broader Market Speaker Paul Ryan talked taxes on squaux, we are joined now with more now from washington. Now that the senate is taking out the repeal of the individual mandate along with its tax plan now this is a strategy that the house had considered, but it decided not to go that route and house Speaker Paul Ryan said o cnbc today though that his members do still support that idea weve had the house votes to do that. We passed our repeal the individual mandate back in may, but we never had the votes in the senate what we didnt want to do is make tax reform harder than it already is, but it really is whether or not the senate has the votes for this or not. So were seeing what the senate can do, if the senate can get it through committee, if they can get it through the floor, then well meet them in conference and assess at that time. The house will be voting on its own version of the tax bill tomorrow afternoon, but this debate is just red meat for democrats ahead of that vote right now, theyre criticizing the gop tax plan as essentially paying for tax cuts for corporations by taking Health Insurance away from the poor and its not just democrats who are worried, some moderate Senate Republicans are weary as well senator Susan Collins of maine says that she is concerned about mixing health care with tax reform, but that she wants to see a whole bill before she makes a final decision now there is another change that is also royaling this as well, and that is the proposal to make all of the individual tax cuts temporary. So that means the lower rates, the repeal of the alternative minimum tax, the increase in the exemption for the estate tax, all of those go away after the year 2025. So guys, there is a lot of complex details here in these proposals and not a lot of time for lawmakers before they have to vote on these ideas back over to you very interesting if you cant get the numbers to work, change the time, verizon. Go back to complicated taxes and theyre bething that other lawmakers in the future wont have the ability to raise, raise those taxes once they expire thats a big can of soup theyre kicking down the road there. Thanks see you later. Thank you meanwhile target promised increase investment in stores and new brands, but a lower Fourth Quarter Sales Outlook sent that stock down, its down now almost 9, almost 10 i think right now. Well hear from the companies ceo coming up in a few minutes here and amazon making its presence felt in the aisles of whole foods. Ahead, what the online giant is doing for Holiday Shoppers that could mean trouble for other supermarkets and we are awaiting comments from President Trump after returning from his trip to wel in lbrg that to you live as soon as it gets under way. Stay with us is the monolithic view of emerging markets obsolete . At pgim, we see alpa in the trends, driving specific sectors of out performance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Everyday our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. [ click ] [ keyboard clacking ] [ clacking continues ] good questions lead to good answers. Our advisors can help you find both. Talk to one today and see why were bullish on the future. Yours. We are basically using the same script we used monday and tuesday again today. Sell off on the open and weve come off those lows. This morning the dow is down more than 160 points, just like yesterday, and now were down 94 points though yesterday only closed down what, 30 . We have a ways to go still lets get some of the other movers on wall street so far today, therapeutics falling sharply as the company said that it has paused enrolling new patients in two key trials testing its parkinsons drug following deaths of some patience of patients the Company Still expects to report data from that late stage trial in the First Quarter of next year. The stock as you see, down almost 40 airbus winning one of the largest aviation deals in history, signing orders for 430 jets with equity firm Indigo Partners that deal worth 49. 5 billion. Its expected to be finalized before the end of the year and as a result, airbus is up two and a third percent right now. Shares of target are headed the other way. They are down nearly 9 . More than that moment ago on the back of a weak holiday forecast in their earnings morning, Courtney Reagan has more, court. Heyly it kelly, target beating across the board for the quarter beating by five cents for the quarter. That beat is embedded in the full year guidance, which then makes the Fourth Quarter the Holiday Quarter Profit Guidance a little cautious, although the comp sales, that forecast is actually above consensus, but that seems to be what investors are focussed on here today so i asked the ceo if hes just being conservative or if hes seen something that trends an early november that are making him cautious im actually surprised with the reaction we had a really solid q3 traffic was up, comps up 90 basis points, digital grew by 24 . So all the leverage we look at, working well brands have been well received small stores off to a great start. Remodel stores like the one were in today delivering exactly what we expected and its still early weve got a lot of work to do, but we feel really good about our position as we go into the Fourth Quarter sales were twice as strong as analysts had expected, up for the second straight quarter. However, the online sales really responsible for almost all of that comparable sales strength, again this quarter for target. That is something that weve seen before. But some investors are concerned about that, targets online sales make up under 5 of the total sales. So thats a point that many people are watching. Now, cornell does say that stores are still very important. They enable digital growth in fact, almost half of online sales are touching the stores in some way whether thats an order pickup or for that online order is actually being fulfilled from the store. So thats something that were watching very closely. We know theres a number of new brands that targets launched including four in the fall then kelly, hearth and hand collection from chip and joe wan in a gaines is actually amazing. That was the word cornell used to describe it so far with the shortstop response Holiday Quarter is really key, so theres a lot to watch here for the retailer back over to you guys. If i get in there, im going to boost their q4 numbers myself with the collection. The important thing about the guidance, especially the lower end of it which is what the reaction seems to be its such a wide range you could drive a truck through it seems to indicate if they had narrow guidance down even at the bottom its not like the stock would have reacted worse, right . Youre right. So the Guidance Range is wide, so for 1. 05 to 1. 25. Its in there, but of course thats at the higher end of that wide range so that is some concern. The comparable Sales Forecast however does look like its above the street so maybe theres some concern that higher sales are coming at the cost of lower profit we know that targets making a lot of investments theyre paying their employees more in the stores theyre investing in digital theyre remodelling stores these are all things that many analysts think that target does need to do, but it does come at a cost all right courtney, thank you very much. See you later. Courtney reagan there in a target store no comment on were you excited about the chip and joanna. Its not surprising theyre seeing gains from the gains. Thank you for serving that up for me today so far played it best you have to look at the twitter history to see what im referring to that wasnt bad. We have 40 minutes to go it was kind of bad 38 minutes to go until the close. Dow is down just about 100 points they were looking to see if we have a rebound like weve seen throughout the lows, but still sitting with the s p down nine and the russell down three Ariel Investments has a new contrarian investment pick and well find that out next department of justices lining up new allies in its position in the proposed merger. Well tell you who they are and what it could mean for investors coming up. And were awai

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