Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20171102 : comparemela.com

CNBC Fast Money November 2, 2017

First on cnbc interview for his reaction to the gop tax bill and the fed chair nomination you wont want to miss that. We start with what were calling the two tickets to stock paradise, tax cuts and trump making it official with his nomination of Jerome Powell, the first details of the tax bill see the light of day, the continuation of the easy money policies from the fed, sending the dow to a new record close. Is this the perfect recipe to keep stocks surging and do you just keep buying it has been i bet you to the punch there. Maybe it was by design. We chose that. Vix below 10, the market had an opportunity to sell off on the back of maybe facebooks earnings or maybe facebooks commentary in the post market. But again, here we are, it grinds higher, closes at the high of the day. What does it mean . The dax held exactly where it needed to held, alltime highs despite the strength in the bond market, the yield curve which continues to flatten, nobody seems to care about. So as far as i can tell, until some event that i cant foresee happening, some exogenous event comes down the pike, you stay the course pete . I would agree with you. What were we waiting for earnings, right . Weve gotten these earnings. Now weve gotten through a big chunk of these earnings and are here to talk about the easy money trade. It seems to be playing exactly like youre defining out there look at volatility theres not an overamount of concern out there. At the same time what were seeing is a market thats traded for the most part in very tight ranges and some moves up to the upside it makes sense that the volatility index would be where it is. It makes sense you would want to buy protection did you see the financials today . I think this earnings season, if your industrials are stretched, but you look at the financials, i dont feel theyre stretched if there were an area i would be adding, i did add in bank of america on the calls, there is an upside here some of these names are getting lofty for me this rotation has been great but there are other places in the market i would rather be the framework for this rally continues, it would seem and again, i know youre a big eddie money fan, the words to the song are waited so long, waited so long, ive got two tickets to paradise. The fed was hanging over the market im sorry i had to go there, but i did and here we are. Were getting to a place, however, where were getting near the end of earnings season which has largely been extraordinary, if you really want to look at it, nice dispersion, theres been people disappointed, but pete points out the places you have upside i think you definitely need to be picking stocks here, the market is in search of new catalysts. Everything ive heard about todays tax draft bill tells me some of the most powerful lobby groups let alone powerful states dont like anything about this announcement isnt that the most important thing, if you think about the low levels of volatility, people feel pretty good about owning risk assets, theres no fear of the market at the end of the day were going to get to a point where this will go up to the end of the year as far as the tax bill. It comes back to how much of this positive sentiment, holding the s p up 15 , the nasdaq up 25 of the year, is really dependent on this bill going through and having some retroactive nature to these cuts for 2017 i dont think youll get a big reform weve talked about this again and again, it will be pushed into 2018. Does the market hang in there for the balance of the year . Yeah, probably but q1 2018, as much as we gain from here on out or are able to hold onto, we may see that as a giveback in q1 2018, again remember that s p volatility is implying like half a percent moves each day and it does less than that. To me, i think were just at a place that you know what makes sense to me too, were through a big chunk of earnings season mike wilson was sitting right here talking about morgan stanley, the biggest bull there is he mentioned very recently, just yesterday, this is probably a time for a pause and a refresh, which makes sense to me. If the catalysts arent there, what will be the next thing . Those that missed have been punished, we saw that earlier today. Those getting it, theyre not getting as much of a bang to the upside and its because of the fact that theyve been push sog fast to the upside that i think its more pause time for a little bit more of a consolidation period in the market. It doesnt mean we have to pull back, and thats what mike was talking about. He does talk about the refresh process. Thats a good point, its not a lets go higher or lower from here but even if were able to hold onto these levels for the time being, that aint bad that aint bad. You could argue that the catalyst has been the last couple of years towards the end of the year, the yearend chase for performance for people that have underperformed this market. Maybe its not as bad as this year as its been in the last couple of years. Were in november already. So you could absolutely see the last couple of months, people chasing this market for the upside to get to their numbers where they need to be. Chasing what, then . Youve got to go back to july, what did f. A. N. G. Do after they reported . They sold off 7, 8 . And then you saw a rotation into industrials and financials to me that was very much thinking about an improving economy, some legislative stuff, that sort of thing to me if this tax thing doesnt look like it will materialize until 2018, you could have people setting up for the beginning of next year, saying we really do need to take some chips off the table. From that vantage point, were waiting for those things to materialize we do have a lot of those items materialized in the form of improving earnings, an improving economy, were looking at maybe 3 , that could be it too and then if were able to hold onto some sort of sell branson of the possibility of tax reform into the First Quarter, that could be enough for a handoff, to say, you know what, we keep going here why wouldnt we because again, if you started to believe this sprinkling of headlines from august from this administration, look, today is a day where you actually see something concrete, people working earnestly at the legislative process. People on one side. I think the most bullish thing would be a bipartisan approach to tax reform which hasnt been done in 30 years you have to get a plan on the table, dan, and then talk about it you remember how this week started . With monday it did start with monday. It started with a couple of Close Associates of the president s being indicted to me, i think thats the thing that people are not factoring in into 2018. If we dont have tax this year and then we have a fullblown political scandal in washington, nothings getting done as we head into the midterms. Tax reform or tax cuts of some kind are bipartisan, large largely. Not reform. There are people on both side of the aisle by getting a plan out there that people can begin to negotiate, and i dont think the one talked about today will pass, you have enough to get people optimistic into next year, with an economy thats growing, record low unemployment, wage gains for the first time, a shortage in labor, and the Housing Market outside the pop it took in the homebuilders, has been the best friend for wealth effect for americans. He saw a number of impacts when it comes to the proposed tax plan on certain sectors. You had private equity earlier today as well. Private equity, exactly if you cant deduct some of the interest because of debt, i mean, these are companies that make their stocks did start moving to the upside, the market closed at record levels once again you look at technology, who has all the money overseas you look at the tech space right pharmaceuticals is pretty big in that area as well, and the amgens and the celgenes of the world, gileads there is so much money overseas, people are looking at it saying, you know what, that could not only bring that money back but how about an acceleration back to m a we havent seen the m a possibilities. Where are they going to put the money . Is it going to go back in the company . Is there m a as well what did you do today today is not a need for the market doing anything. The financials continue to do interesting. Theres bottom fishing to be done in the retail sector. Emerging markets have settled into a place where they continue to outperform every time we get a settling in on rates in the dollar if you dont believe were getting this fiscal policy, the dollar cant get a lot better. I added to a spy short, i think i told viewers, i also took a little profit in bitcoin which is more than kind of lapped up by losses. I added to an smh, a semiconductor etf, short when nvidia turns, that will take a breather. The russell iwm, if they dont like if russell doesnt like the tax reform in the small caps, youll see it in the iwm number two, we talked about for one the chance for tesla to trade to 280, 292 today. I still think it has more room to the downside. You mentioned the homebuilders i think they threw home depot into that mix, etf, i dont know, but there was research out about those guys that maybe amazon was gaining ground in their space. Lowes and home depot were down. Coming up, two huge afterhours moves, apple surging to a new high, the stock crossing 900 billion in market cap. Ceo tim cook says iphone x orders are coming in hot meantime, starbucks scolding investors. Well bring you the latest plus senator Chuck Schumer will be here for his reaction to the gop tax bill and the fed chair nomination later, shares of tesla, having its worst day since july a big trade today raised a lot of eyebrows. Much more fast money sll ahead. [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. It can provide what we call an unlock a realization that often reveals a better path forward. At wells fargo, its our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and Wealth Management firms in the country. Discover how we can help find your unlock. His family. His steinway, which met a burst pipe. So grant met his insurance you are caller number 12. Which didnt quite cover the steinway. But what if hed met pure insurance . Owned by members. Hed have met lisa, your member advocate. Whod introduce him to gustav, a temporary address, and help him get tickets to the mozart festival. Excuse me, grant likes beethoven uh, the beethoven festival. Pure. Love your insurance. Welcome back to fast money. Time warner and at t getting hit today after the department of justice considers a lawsuit that could put the mega merger into serious jeopardy the deal is supposed to close by the end of this year but now as everything hangs in the balance, is it time to worry about this it sounds like this was a bit of posturing, possibly at the end of the day, its a vertically integrated deal and it makes some sense. To me, time warner would be a buy. Lets say if it continued to go down because of rumors, you would want to buy it we know the deal was announced at 85 billion apple had thought about buying these guys if the government doesnt like at t buying them, i suspect that you would have a company like apple, especially if theyre going to be bringing back 260 billion what does apple want . They want content, mel. Why doesnt this deal put smaller guys in play that might not stoke the antitrust alarms that was the surprising thing. I agree with you, dan. I also think at t was punished on the announcement of this deal as well. Im surprised the stock didnt rally. Stocks trading back to basically a fiveyear level on it. Youve taken out all of the fluff from this deal in terms of their multiple thats the stock that probably should have rallied today. The one that surprised me most is disney and i bring that up because i think there should be m a, there should be somebody here is a guy we all love, ive loved them forever. Disney is the a in the m a . Bob iger. He did pixar, he did marvel, a lot of things. Hes done a lot of right things. Hes been very slow to the streaming world. He was looking at twitter, went to bam tech. Why not twitter now . It gives him theyve looked at it before, mel. Salesforce looked at them as well theres multiple reasons twitter could be interesting to Something Else twitter cant monetize themselves the last time they looked at twitter salesforce was looking at twitter in 2014. He said he looks at everything and does very little but i still think thats something that would be in the crosshairs i say that as a guy who doesnt own twitter right now. But a guy who loves bob iger. I love bob iger and that could be a good move for them because they could monetize. At t. We had Craig Moffett a couple of weeks ago. Was it . Two weeks ago time stands still well say, and we made this point then, they have no etf growth, theyve multiple debt issues i would submit, and we did this a couple of weeks ago, 10 1 2, 11, theyre going to earn basically 2. 95 a chair. It traded below 33 today my point is i still think theres about 5 downside. Coming up, shares of apple, check them out, surging to all time highs as it crushes earning, now a 900 billion company. When you hear what gene munster has to say, you might be tempted to buy the stock right now im melissa lee, youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide heres whats coming up on fast. What does the nomination of Jerome Powell to the fed really mean for your money . Heres a clue. Its easy money it sure is. Well tell you the stocks you want to own when fast money returns. The amazing new iphone 8 is at at t. And we know youll love it. Because we know you want more. More great camera features and more power. And more than just unlimited data, we give you unlimited plans with hbo included for life. Because you deserve more entertainment. And more spokespeople. Talking like this, saying the word more. At t. Its time for more. Am i too close . I feel like im too close. Get the iphone 8 and with all at t unlimited plans, get hbo for life. Only from at t. Welcome back to fast money. Apple topping 900 billion in market cap for more on apple lets bring in it fast money friend gene munster who is dialled into the call gene, it seems like on the most important metrics, apple compet exceeded estimates this is probably the strongest quarter theyve had since the First Quarter of the iphone 6 three years ago they had growth in every product, every geography, until tim cook on this call is giddy the power of this is most surprising given the positive guidance without the help of the iphone x and so hes just given investors a little teaser, all he said is the growth is very strong. But theyre still in the prepared remarks i expect analysts to dig into that critical point about how strong is very strong related to the iphone x preorders when it comes to the guide for next year for the First Quarter revenue coming into guidance, coming at the midpoint of the range, so are we what are we gleaning from that . Is that conservative typically a little bit conservative but i think what we can glean is given the production issues of the iphone x, that most of that guide, the strength in that guide was probably from the iphone 8 and the other iphones so i think that that is just a testimony about the family of iphone another piece to look at is the gross margin guidance. That was up sequentially very rare, theyre guiding for up sequential Gross Margins. Typically you see those dip. I wouldnt be surprised if Gross Margins dip in the march quarters as they ramp production of the initially more costly iphone x all right, gene, well check in with you later on you guys should have seen gene in the green room before the numbers why coming out he was a bit giddy he saw the Services Number up 34 year over year its important to remember, well get gene back and talk about it later, at the end of the day it still is about 15, 16 of their total revenue i think what gene said about geography is growing, and all the products, thats really important. China growing double digits is a good thing the china growth i thought was outstanding. Yes so he talked about all the geographies and different segments, growth, growth, record, record there might be a onetime cost for services, 600 million that pads it up a little bit. Still a phenomenal number. That is the area where youre looking for, you want to area to continue to show growth. As long as the Services Continue to do that with the billion plus users and growing, thats going to be gate its all about retention as well what they showed us again is, even without the x, look at the phones and how they sold once again. That i thought was a huge number yeah, so you talk about china, india doubled, okay theres a lot more room for international penetration. You talked about where the margins basically coming from sales, but it gets down to, always, what multiple you put on the stock, traded between 10 and 16 over the last ten years essentially over the last three years the mean is 13 times, its traded 14 times. If you think you see this growth, dan, this is where you could put a bigger multiple on the stock and run it up Higher Services seems to grow by a percent in terms of overall revenues each quarter. When you first started talking about services probably 10. 5, 11 , up to 15 , dan will correct me if this gets to 20 , the multiple youre talking about is probably closer to the high teens. And this is something that pete said, karen, everybody says it, you get into services thats a runway to a much higher stock price we were talking about time warner, why would apple want to buy them theyre dismal in music, theyre dismal in streaming, they dont have any offerings thats why you want to do it margins for hardware have actual plateaued. Given this report, given the strength that were seeing in the growth of the phone and services you dont even know what the question is would you be a happy shareholder if apple came out and saying were buying time warner i would not i understand everybody talks about content. I dont like that direction. That is such a different, out of the world of what apple would do their biggest acquisition, isnt it still beats i think beats is their largest acquisition, 3 billion. That would be a huge number. I dont see apple doing it more on apple straight ahead. Meantime, a news alert on the gop tax plan, ylan mui is in d. C. With more reporter we now have a price tag for that tax plan. The joint committee on taxation saying the tax bill will cost 1. 487 trillion forever the next decade that means that this bill does comply with the special reconciliation rules that republicans want to use to fast track this bill and not require any support from democrats were told that the business side of the tax bill will be a tax cut of 846. 5 billion on the i

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