Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20171018 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20171018

Our billion dollar buyer, tillman furtita, notching his first win as the owner of the rockets on Opening Night for the nba. He did it in thrilling style the former commissioner, david stern, will join us. The anthem protest Team Valuations and much more this slamdunk addition of power lunch begins right now there is nothing wrong with the slamdunk addition if i could do it, i would do it all the time i am brian sullivan. Nobody is feeling blue about these markets. Your money is now just 3. 5 away from dows 24,000. You can thank ibm, big blue adding about 80 points to the dow on one of its best days in decades. We will dig into ibms big quarter. The ipo of the day is a chinabased micro lending company. Nothing micro about its gains. It is soaring in its debut allergan all on the move anthem rallied to help ensure creating a new pharmacy benefits unit michelle im michelle carusocabrera. Here is what else is happening rising sea levels are threatening nearly 1 trill worth of u. S. Homes, mostly moderately priced. An early reading on zillow, just over 80 have beaten the estimates. 10 have missed. Nfl commissioner, Roger Goodell, set to hold a News Conference any moment now we are going to monitor that and bring you the headlines as they cross. Melissa . Thanks, michelle. Down 23,000. Yesterday, the index now powering ahead to 24,000 what has to happen to get us there . Bob pisani is at the New York Stock Exchange with some answers. Hi, bob. Melissa, here is an amazing stat the dow has moved 5,000 points in 18 months the dow is at average 1,000 points on average. Every 3. 6 months at this rate, we will hit dow 24,000 at the end of january and be celebrating 25,000 in the middle of may. Sell in may and go away. You didnt hear it that doesnt work anymore. The market is worthrallying. Everyone has come to believe that all the problems the market had have resolved themselves it is under this logic the marketables there is not going to be any real conflict with north korea, because everyone believes the chinese will work with us. The marketables tax cuts wibeli tax cuts will pass and that record earnings will continue because the Global Economy will keep expanding and tax cuts will add another 2 , 3 , 5 pick one the marketables the fed will not make any policy errors, because everyone believes the fed will remain just dovish not enough to rattle markets call it stoner logic dude, chill out. It is all going to work out. Maybe it will work out my bet is the biggest risk to the market is the last one much the fed will overshoot its target this great ocean of liquidity that the global Central Banks have provided. Chinese micro lender qudia, they priced it at 24 it opened at 34. 35 off of that. So far, these chinese ipos have been hot there are a couple more coming in the next couple of days back to you guys Senate Republicans from the finance Committee Meeting with President Trump just moments ago. Trump also speak in the past hour about tax reform, jobs and making america more competitive. Eamon javers in d. C. With a full plate. Reporter we just some Senate Republicans come out and talk to reporters very briefly none of the democrats who were here with them have appeared at the driveway Camera Position yet. We are going to wait to hear from them and see if we do have a breakthrough no news from that meeting. We did see the president speaking at the top of the meeting with republicans and democrats in the room alongside him. He talked about a lot of the highlights of his tam reform proposal including the one on business repatriation. Here is what he said on that point. We will impose a onetime low tax on trillions of dollars of wealth parked overseas to encourage companies to bring back those profits and bring them back home and spend the money at home where it belongs the president also talked about Health Care Reform yesterday, there was this bipartisan deal cut up on capitol hill to move forward on health care. The president initially seemed to embrace that in the rose garden in his remarks. Later on in the day as we reported, the president backing away from that deal because it would reimpose those csr payments to Insurance Companies that the president has called a political bailout. Late in the afternoon yesterday, we got the indication that, no, in fact, the president did not support that bipartisan deal on health care that was moving up on capitol hill. Today, he addressed that point and reiterated that he doesnt support the deal in its current form well see the bipartisan. We are going to see the bipartisan Lamar Alexander is working on it very hard from our side. If something can happen, thats fine i wont do anything to enrich the insurancecompanies right now, they are being inriched they have been enriched by obamacare like nothing anybody has ever seen. I am not going to do anything to enrich the Insurance Companies reporter you remember the president last week cut off the payments to the Insurance Companies. Based on his language, doesnt look like those payments are going to be restarted any time soon back over to you, tyler. Politicos ben white launching his new treasury bill. He says they must pass the tax bill or wall street will pay the price. There is no question that the rally in the stock market has based into it reasonably High Expectations of us getting tax cuts and tax reforms done. It also has based into it op tic optimism on regulatory relief which they have gun to see and there are expectations to the extent we see the tax deal done, the stock market will go up higher there is no question if we dont get it done, you are going to see a reversal of a significant amount to these gains. Here to take us inside, cnbc contributor, ben white congratulations on the podcast did he elaborate on how much the markets could pull back . This is an administration that sees the stock market as a report card on its progress it certainly does you have President Trump bragging about the stock market pretty much every day on twitter and elsewhere. I took it when he said a significant amount of these gains, that that was a reference to basically what the market has done since trump was elected in november we have seen significant gains, hitting record highs, piercing 23,000 on the dow. My assumption from his comments was, if we get to the end of this year, early next year and tax reform looks dead, there is no bipartisan agreement and republicans cant even agree on how to cut corporate rates and individual rates, you could see a big selloff in the markets that may not be wrong but a bit unusual for a treasury secretary of the United States to basically say you better do what we want you to do or your wall street rally is going to get it. They usually remain themselves from market commentary and Say Something very typical about the strength of the dollar. Did he give you any odds on the chances of whether or not it is going to pass . He tried to talk very positively about the possibilities. We have seen hedging from the part of the president and also from mcconnell we spoke on friday, a little bit before mcconnell and the president s walkbacks. He gave me a rock solid guarantee beyond trumps desk and signed at the end of the year since then, we have seen the omb director and the president an the majority leader begin to dial that back and suggest maybe it will be early next year it took reagan years to get his tax reform done in 86 i think thats realism there is not a lot of time left in this year we still need to pass a budget and a bill out of house ways and means. A number of significant policy disagreements need to be worked out. Getting all that done by the end of the year to me seems impossible they are, i think, starting to set the table for expect this maybe first quarter, first half of next year at least mnuchin says absolutely still this year. He knows it is a game of expectations, right . We know senator rand paul is not going to vote for budget as it stands right now, we dont know what is going to happen with senator cruzs vote the margin of error is getting smaller. The path to tax reform and meeting the end of the year deadline seems less and less likely Steve Manuchin of all people should know that do you get a sense of why he keeps boxing them into this very aggressive timeline . I think he himself kind of believes it and when he articulates the path forward in terms of getting that Senate Budget vote, my guess is they probably can get that passed and moving on to a bill out of ways an means where he disconnects from reality is whats going to happen when that bill is initially introduced it is going to get lobbied hard. There are going to be disagreements on getting rid of the state and local Tax Deduction and where individual rates should be and on the corporate side exactly which deductions you get rid of to make it palatable on the debt and deficit. Thats going to take a lot of time he is new to washington. He hasnt gone through this process a lot. He may be a bit surprised when he sees the sausage being made, how long it takes to get it cooked it will probably be into next year on the stock market gains, you made your point this is a global phenomenon this is liquidity all around the globe, markets all around the globe. The u. S. Has some Corporate Tax reform based into it it is not just u. S how crucial is tax reform to keeping this recordbreaking rally alive. Lets bring in burns mckinney, portfolio with alians global good to have you here. Burns, he said that if tax reform doesnt pass, the stock market will fall sharply do you believe that . I would argue that secretary mnuchin is probably giving the Current Administration a bit too much credit for the recent stock market rally stocks have continued to churn upwards since the election but the market is not really pricing in a whole lot of success. If you look at portions of the market that are reliant upon tax cuts such as companies that could get fit from repatriation, small and midcaps, cyclical stocks, they have given back a lot of those gains you look at the betting markets, for example, they really only price in about a 1 in 3 chance of success of the tax reform the up side to getting something pass is probably greater than the down side were it to fail. George, what do you think i dont know that thats exactly right. The reason is, if you have a republican president and a Republican Congress and you cant get tax cuts or tax reform passed, it really questions whether or not this government can get anything done. I do think thats going to be a head wind. As we look at the expectations for companies and growth as a function of potential tax reform, we see that evenly priced in. Where do you see that burns cited companies with the higher tax rates or more cash overseas companies that are more disproportionately affected by u. S. Taxes relative to companies that are more internationally affected, they have 50 of that priced in. Lets forget about taxes for one second and play demographics, it is a measure of a lot of that. Go deeper into your thesis you have household formation really starting to pick up a huge covert of the population is in this Millennial Group they have been living in parents basements, renting. They havent been buying homes like we have seen prior generations do now, you are seeing that happen. They are starting to form families at a greater pace than they have before they are starting to enter their early 30s and are getting married and having kids. They need more space and they need to own a home if you look over the past ten years, that generation has seen a Housing Market they havent had a lot of faith in. You have ten years of history where they realize having equity in Residential Real Estate is not a bad thing. It is a lot cheaper than rent frg rentin from an equivalent cash perspective. There is tremendous demand for housing moving forward the Home Builders havent overbuilt supply like we have seen in the past the housing dynamic looks really attractive Going Forward we have a segment coming up later in the show. We are talking about the big shortage of workers to get homes built. Thanks so much for joining us. George maris and burns mckinney. A rough month of hurricanes and wildfires destroying thousands of homes in the race to rebuild, there is one hurdle larger than the rest, lack of builders lets talk more about whats being done about it coming up. New housing data out the industrys biggest problem new homes are needed but finding workers to build them is tough diana olick has more di reporter Housing Starts drop more than expected in september. While some of that can be attributed to hurricanes in the south, the real problem is an accuse labor shortage. That is only getting worse with the Natural Disaster a little perspective the number of houston homes destroyed by Hurricane Harvey surpassed the total number of Single Family Building Permits sfimt sfi estimated for the city just after the storm, the chairman of the National Association of Home Builders explored the Trump Administration to ease up on immigration saying a successful Guest Worker Program will help alleviate the current labor shortage in the Residential Construction sector, quicken the rebuilding efforts in texas and support the Overall Economic growth of this nation. The fires in Northern California have already destroyed far more homes than that. That will have massive repercussions for the Housing Market in california and beyond. All the resources are being drained to the rebuilding effort thats going to increase the cost of housing and renovation across the nation. The Housing Market cant take the shock of a natural event it cant take any shock. We are so tightly wound with inventory. Reporter curiously, Home Builders sentiment jumped despite drops in new home starts and sales. Even the nhsb chairman warned his own constituency there would be difficulties ahead. Back to you guys thank you very much. In the world of home construction, we often focus on the buildings. There are many types of Companies Involved Beacon Roofing makes, you guessed it, roofing. Masonite makes doors it is not just homes themselves. Roads and other infrastructure need help as well. Those stocks have done pretty well too you look at some materials, up 10 . Lets stdiscuss it withstandly elliot thank you very much for rejoining us in the race to rebuild, you have the homes and the roads, rocks, aggregates as they are known in the Industry Based on price targets and current prices, Martin Marietta is your favorite stock right now with 30 up side seen. How come thank you very much for having us. We really like the whole group, martin, vulcan and summit. When you look at the demographic drivers for their business, about 20 come from the Residential Market we think it will continue to be a driver for these guys. Look at population growth. Aggregates are driven by a per capita of aggregates literally, i hate to call them that but the Rock Companies literally make rocks we see their fortunes rise and kind of fall with the reduced expectation of an infrastructure bill or package, stanley do you think congress will get something done with infrastructure i know there are a lot of state projects certainly, the state projects are something thats been the most positive in what has been a fairly disappointing year. This would provide a stop gap measure for the highway fund why do i want to be in these stocks these stocks have been underperformers this year. If i want to play in the Housing Market, what the markets have told me is just invest in the Home Builders. I understand you dont cover them if you want to invest in u. S. Residential or Residential Home building or the Housing Market, these dont look like the stocks to own i think thats fair i mentioned 20 . You look at the Second Quarter, a lot of rain through the southeastern part of the u. S we have had the hurricanes these are great businesses you can count on generally speaking pricing every single year they are high fixed costs businesses once you have the volumes come through coupled with the pricing, the middles will be 60 plus and very strong Earnings Growth a couple of your picks are big guys, vulcan and martin mariota. Do you expect these companies will snap up some of the smaller players . If so, who might be the prey here thats been an on going trend for quite so

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