Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20170926 : comparemela.com

CNBC Closing Bell September 26, 2017

All the latest details for you. After the bell, nike will report earnings. We got a debate on whether the stock is a buy ahead of that release. We begin with all of the news how ut of washington. Cnbcs john harwood is in d. C. With developments on the effort to repeal and replace obamacare. Ylan muil has the latest on the tax reform eamon javers, details on the press conference with the Prime Minister of jane Janet Yellens speech this afternoon. John, lets begin with you. Wilfred, today it became official what was obvious yesterday when Susan Collins became the third republican to oppose that Graham Cassidy block grant bill to repeal and replace obamacare. Turned tout be three republicans who caused them to pull the plug rand paul of kentucky, john mccain of arizona, Susan Collins of maine other opponents as well. Many states including the states of these three senators lost money under that plan. Remember, this is a plan in 2026 would have taken away 215 billion that the government is on track to spend now on health care now we saw that announcement, Lindsey Graham and bill cassidy, the two sponsors theyre not giving up. Mitch mcconnell said we are now moving on to health care thats the top priority agenda for President Trump and republicans. And now we see if they can pull that off all right, john, thank you. Lets bring in ylan mui now with the latest on the plan for tax reform as it stands for all that we know about it right now, ylan. Reporter kelly, i just spoke with two Senior Administration officials and they insisted that President Trump is all in on tax reform remember, trump had been criticized for not knowing the details of health care and not doing more to stump for it, but on tax reform, im told he does support the framework, and that the big six will unveil tomorrow and hes been particularly focused on lowering rates for Corporation Corporations trump will be making a big speech on tax reform tomorrow in indiana. Ive learned hes also inviting that states democratic senator, joe donnelly, to join him. Saw the president meeting earlier today with both republican and democratic members of the Tax Writing Committee in the house, show trump is still hoping to win over at least a few democrats on this issue but for republicans, House Speaker paul ryan said today this is a mustwin for the party. Tax reform is the most important thing we can do to restore confidence to this country, to get jobs and prosperity and that is why were so singularly focused on getting this done this year. Reporter guys, House Republicans are holding a tax reform retreat tomorrow. Were ex ing a big reveal on the tax plan to happen after that. Back over to you. Ylan, thank you very much for that lets go to eamon javers at the white house for more on President Trumps joint News Conference with the Prime Minister of spain. Eamon . Reporter hi, wilfred, the press conference wrapped up a few minutes ago at the white house, talking about a number of topics but especially north korea. He said once again the United States is prepared to use the mill their option against north korea if it come that president. He says if it does that will be devastating for north korea. Frustration. You could really hear in it his voice when he talked to me, the nfl situation is a very important situation i heard that before about was i preoccupied . Not at all not at all i have plenty of time on my hands. All i do is work to be honest with you, thats an important function of working. Its called respect for our country. And for people to disrespect that by kneeling during the playing of our national anthem, i think is disgraceful all right eamon, thank you now Steve Liesman joins us from cnbc headquarters with a wrapup of, oh, yes, fed chair Janet Yellens comments this afternoon, too. Some business news. Fed chair janet yellen went further than she has in the past, guys, in acknowledging the fed may not fully understand the inflation die nynamidynamic. Ultimately she ends up in her speech before economists today, backing the feds current policy of gradual rate hikes and removal of easy Monetary Policy. The reason, she says theres substantial drawbacks to the fed going too slow without further modest increases in the federal funds rate over time, theres risk that the labor market could eventually become overheated, potentially creating an inflationary problem down the road that might be difficult to overcome without triggering a recession. That was the conclusion of the speech, but she spent most of the time before that speculating about the possibility the fed might have inflation and the job dynamic wrong. If these sorts of favorable supplytype shocks continue, achieving our 2 inflation goal over the medium term may require a more accommodative stance of Monetary Policy than might otherwise be appropriate i know what you care about, was it hawkish or dovish is a little bit of both. Hawkish in that she concluded in the face of uncertainty the fed should plow ahead with rate hikes. It was dovish for the fed chair to openly speculate the fed may have inflation wrong and speculate also about policy changes, guys, in it does. I like the line from peter where he said i had to splash water on my face because i thinktime hethin im hearing a more hawkish janet yellen that was the end of it. Dovish is the default. You know what the markets did, if you can put up intraday, the two year, it goes straight up and right back down it ends up i thenk even lower on the twoyear yield than it was before the speech. So they had this whole sort of hawkish idea and then maybe not. All right and the dollar gave up a little bit of its gains. Right. Today as well. Kparkt exactly. By the end of it. Thanks very much. My pleasure. Were going to discuss this further with our closing bell exchange, mike, president of portfolio family of funds. And Rick Santelli from the cme rick, lets start with you off the back of Janet Yellens comments talk us through what you think the bond market did in reaction to it. Very ittle. I mean, i know steves looking at a basis point or two, but, you know, 143 is where were at. We settle at 142 we could argue about a few base points we also happen to have a had a twoyear note action which might have given it a speck more volatility even that auction was just average, considering the last twoyear note auction we had about four weeks ago when the yield was 132 instead of 142 that didnt go much better so theres an issue there. Maybe its the topic janet chose. Traders on this floor, they dont care about the reasons day like the normalization going on even if thats the right word. Slightly higher rates. Theyve been too low for too long lets balance sheet. Its been too big for too long exactly between the last fed meeting and the long press conference, where there was a lot of head scratching by the group regarding why inflation has been so tame, it seems like all of a sudden, in just a couple weeks, theres so much more knowledge about the future being more highly inflationary didnt really make sense to any. I splash water on my face, too, just because i dont understand how in a couple weeks so many things could change, but at the end of the day, the timings right, theyre doing the right thing. The pace isnt bad lets leave it at that and keith, the markets mixed still this afternoon the russell still continuing its march higher for those small caps and we still have to think about why names like facebook were down 5 yesterday. A lot of bigpicture themes today. Movement out of d. C. Or maybe the lack thereof where does that leave you. Kind of remipnds me of Janet Yellens speech. Definite maybe maybe it will go higher, maybe it wont listen, what we see in the markets now is pretty much just a churn. Its certainly taken on the behavior of a momentum trade from industry to industry, sector to sector two recent examples, runup in the Energy Complex really since june sure, some has to do with the commodity price lifting up but a lot has to do with the money chasing after the bullish septemberme sentiment. The tech sector that sold off massively. Looking at another potential tech wreck part 2 like we had over the summer. Its what the market has become, momentum play from industry to industry, you do have larger theme ideas going on as youre pointing out i think until we get out of this month, get out of this Third Quarter, really start to try to understand and ascertain what the fundamental drivers will be, maybe it will be Third Quarter earnings, maybe it will be the tax package, maybe something to do with north korea. I think were doomed to be stuck in a rut for the foreseeable future so even though the macro things are overlaying the market, we do think about those on a daytoday trade, youre going to continue to see this churn for the next couple weeks. Michael, the market hasnt really been rocked by the decision not to hold a vote on the Graham Cassidy Health Care Bill its the same eventuality met tax reform, would the market be knocked sideways yeah, i think with health care, everybody expected that not much was going to happen, so it isnt a surprise. I think the expectations for tax reform are a little bit better but, again, watching the sausage being made on all this legislative action, theres still a big degree of uncertainty as to whether were going to get anything, and if its going to be anywhere near what was maybe hoped for or promised earlier in the year so i think theres a lot of uncertainty. With respect to Janet Yellens speech today, i mean, maybe we will, maybe we wont im not sure it really moved the needle at all. I think the fact remains theres a lot happening in october that may drive the feds Rate Decision in december and thereafter corporate earnings being one of them, were about to come on the Year Anniversary of sort of an earnings reboot where earnings have been stronger this will be the Fourth Quarter in a row but the comps are going to get more difficult and so its you know, are we still going to get that same degree of Earnings Growth that weve had the last several quarters and to what extent has gdp been impacted by the hurricanes and the storms if those reflect slowdowns in any other data points, then its not a fore gone conclusion that the fed will raise in december or two, three, four times in 18. So theres still a lot to look forward to here. Keith, briefly, just because youre talking a lot about inflation, some inputs include o oil there. Doing well lately. Taking a pause today what do you make of the energy space lately remarkably, the jawboning from o fopec and saudis have started to work on the market and maybe some of the production cuts latched into the story and narrative as well. I maintain oil will be stuck in a pretty tight range even though its expanded a little bit i cant see the brent or wti t getting much above 60. It got overbought in our work. Pulling back a little today. Every time it goat gets up to 6 basins, 27, 28 these days and still have a lot of debt to pay off down there as long as oil stays up here, theyre going to pump until theyre blue in the face and put a lid on prices. Im not sure thats a play that will get extended to the upside for very long. Its going to come back in here i think in the next couple weeks. Michael, you own facebook were you topping out today after yesterdays big selloff . Were longterm investors, so, no, we really didnt do anything over the last couple days i think the reasons for the selloff, you know, some of them were facebookspecific, some were more broad eer antitech feelings yesterday the net result is its a great longterm growth story its not cheap trading at a mid 30s p e we think hoeover time it demonstrated it can grow into the multiple we expect it to continue to do that. If you guys like it long term, why not take it at 5 , or for if you go back to its peaks in the selloff that weve seen potentially true although weve got a full weighting in it right now so its not necessarily the decline wasnt that substantial where it was a screaming buy due to yesterday. When you have a position like we have, thats pretty full, theres no need to add to it we certainly werent selling it yesterday. Still up 30 this year. Exactly the tech rebounded today but not to the same extent thank you very much. Michael, keith and rick. We have about 45 minutes or so to go before the bell just over that we are high by around about a third of a percent for the nasdaq that was down almost a percent yesterday. About a tenth of a percent for the other two indices. Coming up, the five largest hedge funds in the world are now primarily computer driven. What happens jo s when you remoh human touch from trading show one fund is using algos with a mind of their own. Later the playbyplay on todays bombshell ncaa corruption allegations that have an adidas exec and a number of coaches in the cross hairs of investigators. And we want to hear from you. Reach out to the show. Tell us your thoughts. Use twitter, facebook, or send us an email, closingbell nbcuni. Com youre watching cnbc first in Business Worldwide. Welcome back to the closing bell. Lets check in on todays Market Movers Darden Restaurants one of the worst performing stocks in the s p 500 today after reporting lower than expected samestore sales last quarter owner of olive garden blaming Hurricane Harvey for the shortfall. Down some 5. 86 . Shares of boston beer are hopping higher after Credit Suisse upgraded the maker of sad adam s citing strong growth in its alcoholic iced tea and seltzer brands the analyst also says the stock, plunged 25 over the past it years, continues to decline, it could become an attractive takeover target. Meanwhile, call it the rise of the machine, trading at all five of the hedge funds primarily driven by computers. It that includes londonbased leslie picker is in london with a look another what happened. Reporter hey, kelly, thats right, its just past 58 p. M. Here in london and the Trading Floor has cleared out but the machines are still hard at work. This screen behind me is just a small subsoeet of the millions pieces of data that the computers are sifting through and trading. Mangroup manages about 40 billion this way its been a socalled quant fund for 30 years over the past three years, Machine Learning, to help support its trading. Yesterday we spoke with the cio who told us that Machine Learning has produced alpha beyond that of traditional quant. We view it as a way of finding pat teterns where we dot direct the machine exactly where to look, a good example might be if you want machines to buy on dips, then its sometimes quite hard to describe a dip perfectly, but the Machine Learning will just look for patterns of what dips look like and what happened next. Reporter he wouldnt be surprised if in five years half of mans hls assets or training was supported by Machine Learning guys there are so many things to talk about what was that box that you guys were looking at with the what was that contraption, leslie, with the silver and the looked like green and red numbers in there or something. Reporter the cube, exactly, they call it the light cube. It shows performance of each individual strategy, market, fund, within man ahl here in london so people here who work on the floor can see realtime fmp performance. One of the benefits of quant, a selling point, theres a much more transparent process when it comes to returns than, say, traditional fundamental hedge funds which, of course, dont have a by the minute tabulation of those sorts of profit and losses it looks like a little bit of a gimmick to wow it would be really transparent if they told how they were doing the trades. Leslie, we spoke earlier about some of the risks that the cio is aware of in terms of the threats to algo trading. One of them being leverage what about momentum . Clearly we are late stage of whats been a very long bull market many people, many critics of robotic trading, et cetera, quant trading say it can only work during an up trend or down trend but cant pick when its going to change direction. Reporter exactly thats one thing theyre hoping Machine Learning will be able to solve, when the exact turn will happen as of right now, the science makes it very difficult to actually predict a downturn, as you mentioned in momentum, of course, is a huge issue that took place in 2007 when there was a squocalled quantquake, everybody was in crowded trades and a few that happened to unwind caused a huge Ripple Effect scared away a lot of investors for almost a decade. Were starting to see a resurgence as well of those concerns, guys. Yeah, sauch huge part of the strategies, leslie good to get a look at it thank you very much. Have fun tonight. Reporter thanks, guys. Leslie picker in london do you see anyone in the office no, because its machine driven no, im joking it was very busy they have a lot of employees at mangroup. 40 minutes to go until the close. Dows up 22. S p up four. Nasdaq also up 22. Russell, outperforming again, up 7 1 2 points. We have an expert who says under armours pain could be nikes gain. Well break down a bull and bear case. Also coming up, the equifax fallout, a major shakeup today at

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