Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20170906 : c

Stocks are getting a bounce following the worst trading day in week and bochnd yields contie to be the story. Ten year is the lowest since november joe, is this time to worry about what is happening with yields . I think its time to be concerned. Overly worried, no, because this is something that for the better part of 2017 its been part of it weve been normalizing rates, but yet the u. S. 10 year has the inability to really lift itself to the surprise of many. So a break below 2 respect about, y 2 , that could be problematic. I think its problematic for financials for more reasonsect that could be problematic. I think its problematic for financials for more reasons than just net interest margins. And having the benefit of talking to Dave Albright quite a bit, its taking the investment demand away from financial equities and its going into financial debt because rates are so low and because of the regulation. They have so much on their balance sheet. So i think that is a negative. Is there is a breaking point for socks here as bond yields continue to go down, people wondering what is going on and there is a breaking point eventually this ominous sign for stocks . I think you need to break down what is driving the move lower. One is the debt ceiling discussion which is ongoing and we heard from now pelosi and schumer this morning about what they are putting on on the table which is a short term resolution in terms of funding for harvey and ryan by the way who called that proposal outrageous or another description this is the beginning of the communication, so they will come back to the tables, we should hear from the republicans later this an and then after that well hear again from the democrats. But i think that short term what is driving yields lower is concerns about debt resolution, the debt ceiling as well as the 2018 budget. Over a longer term, i think the two primary drivers is first that inflation continues to be weak and then related to that is the fact that Central Bank Policy remains very accommodative and i think that the news about fischer leaving the fed earlier than expected also clears the deck for trump to potentially put mowre dovish candidates in place. That said, if we get a resolution this week on the debt ceiling, we probably get a move higher in yield but i wouldnt expect a breakout. Rick, do you and the folks in chicago think were going below 2 , and if that happens, what do you think it does mean for the stock market i think the possibility of spending time under 2 is highly likely but i think that the amount of time we will spend under 2 or even closer than we are today to 2 is going to be rather limited. Most of the forces that are pushing rates down are either temporary or have a lot to do with outside fixed income markets. So when you look at our low yields, you think, wow, our yields are about the same maybe even higher than some of the yields for high yield in europe. So there is a relative value issue there. But it isnt the type of economic relationship where you see super weak data and the treasury area is where you get the first signal so you dont think were sniffing something out no. And i think the Government Shutdown is always great foerde. But there is no dire consequence here its a great opportunity, but hard to handicap how much of this type move lower is due to those political debt, debt ceiling, and legislative issues i can guarantee you that delivering alpha on this coming tuesday, you will later a lot of bond bubble, bond bubble, bond bubble, this maybe being a sacc this conversation. But do you turn it into a stock problem . I think it drives investment into stocks. Why would you put money there when its a bubble and its a worsening bubble that weve seen people keep doing it. Women, they do. Everybody says bubble, dont put money in bonds and its been a bubble for years already. Were in year five of the bubble i believe. But what i was interested to hear, or not to hear rather, is that fear didnt creep into one of your reasons for rates being so low and i think a lot of it is driven by the fear trade the disparity between yields in europe and the u. S. Actually is less than it was just a month ago, so that is not what is driving it and in fact you have draghi closer to cutting back on qe so i dont think its disparity in yields. As a matter of fact im receipry sure its not. I think a lot is the fear in trade and that view is ratified by what we see in gold you can imagine a scenario in which stocks can go up if bond yields go below 2 yes yeah, absolutely. You dont being the thet the narrative unless you have the events that the bond market fears occurring. I agree with steve, i think the reason were seeing bonds where they are is fear and you brought up gold as well. We talked about gold weve seen the paper coming into not just gold, miners, but silver, all of that. Weve watched copper move to the up side. So are people a little fearful absolutely that is why were seeing movement in bonds. But i agree, that doesnt mean that you wont see the markets continue to move higher. Werm at highs the other day and look at the xlk. You talk about technology. That is the great performer. And you look at the permit answ performance. Where is it . Off 1 . It performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . \t performance. Where is it . Off 1 . \t performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . Performance. Where is it . Off 1 . Performance where is it . Off 1 . Performance where is it . Off 1 where is tech today it has screamed higher for the last month and a half or so. You look at where microsoft was, apple, facebook and all of those as they came into earnings and the movement out of those, this has been a pretty incredible move to the up side. It goes back to the postelection and financials they have been on a pause ever since. I wish that they would start to move again of course, but obviously this correlation with the ten year has been pulling on those financials ever since. But the numbers but what is the fear . Everybody is using bonds are its the fear trade. What is the primary fear that you both are focusing on maybe its playing too much which i can chicken with the de. North korea has to be in there somewhere. And youre watching the game of laser tag with nukes between two fiveyearolds and when fiveyearolds play laser tag, parents wonder who will get hurt. If that was the fear, do you really think youd see gold only at 1344, really gold has had a move [ everybody talking at once do you typically see gold move up when inflation is moving down but its degrees. Its the degree. Oh, my god, inflation and gold havent been on the same wave lechk f length for 30 years sgl paul, why dont you weigh in. I have a slightly different view what i think is that north korea just joined the nuclear club and they are in it in the same way that china did in the 60s []and then pakistan and india came in. Now, its a pretty tough regime to deal with, but the market needs to get used to it. That was 7 to 8 basis points in the ten year im not as worried about the debt ceiling because i dont think politicians can play with the debt ceiling with these two harvey and now irma. So that leaves the big one that we havent discussed today the tru trump trade. I think the way that trump is just berating his own party right now is putting the whole concept of tax repeal in question personally i think it will be fine but i dont think that the bond market thinks it will be fine. And to your earlier question, would the asset market be fine if the ten year broke 2 , id say no stocks would dump because there would be a reason. Im surprised that you think stocks could continue to go up i think it depends why the ten year is breaking 2 . Well never know a reason why. Do you know definitively why its at 2 2. 06 . I think if the debt ceiling does not get done, yes, stocks will go down but weve seen kashkari and bra brainiard gave powerful arguments for why the fed has to be cautious in terms of raising rates in the future. That will drive yields lower and if we hear trump having to appoint a new person to replace fischer, if he puts someone in who is more dovish, that could also lead to yields being under pressure those would be bullish signs for the market so ifif that scenario works e way you think, where do you put your money to work i agree with you there. That because has been on and the because has been on and that will continue to be on because of that correlation with the bonds. Tech looks questionable it looks questionable really after a great run, yes. You look at where tech just was a couple days ago and where it is now, down less than 1 , i dont know if id call that questionable i think people are starting to question whether that trade is going totally disagree. I agree with pete growth is still there, still moving i have to come back to one thing. I agree from the long term standpoint that inflation doesnt have the correlation with gold. However, on short term moves, spikes inflation, it absolutely does, rick so hopefully that puts that to bed i dont think, all i know is [ everybody talking at once at justed for inflation, that is 2300. Weve never come close long term basis, i agree. I never believed it. On a short term basis, short term spikes, you will see gold reacts and rick, thank you for being on the program with us today as far as it correlates with the fed. Central banks are the only fear in the fixed income market because rates go where they want them to go and that scares me rick, again, appreciate it. Good to to have you on the program today. Do you care at all about transports i do. United cuts outlook twrans ports is like the great divergence because i think when will that thmatter i think that has been ongoing. And to go back to tech, i guess i disagree with steve and pete he yes, technology is very close to its high. But i think its important to understand positioning and i just think that the speculative community is so attracted to technology right now and what we witnessed last week was it ctechnology lead us alltime highs and we seemed to lose technology yesterday at a certain point and that is concerning to me that is an overstatement to say lose technology. How did we lose technology yesterday . And you brought up the same thing. I dont get this at all. Wasnt nasdaq down more so than the others . And technology was down maybescreamed to the up side and its now in the pause phase. Speculative positioning came in incredibly long in technology and yesterday it tried to break out early. We saw a little bit of a failure. And now what you are beginning to see today is youre seeing a little bit further of the weakness and now some of the money going into energy. And if you are going to have that formation where you have a value play like energy attract money, money will come out of somewhere. Im not saying that Technology Overall is by anywhere near done im sure it will be a lot higher by the end of the year but im trying to understand what is going on and it looks like you might see temporarily a source of funds i agree and the pause. [ everybody talking at once youre making it sound like everybody said we have to start telling tech i never said that yesterday you used the word li liquidation. Can i play my role of calming voice . Please. I think its too early to judge a day and a half move in tech the volume is light. I think tech will come back. What is important is that the growth aspects of the companies themselves has not changed at all. You will see netflix up today for example. That is a bounce and that is a bounce where there is a true controversy over the fundamentals there is no facebook was down earlier facebook has some news. So its flat. So i think were okay on. But listen, all were doing is i think were just raising awareness and what is also go ahead. Yesterday when i used the term liquidation im all good, i just dont understand something that is not down more than 1 and suddenly they are liquidating assets. Well, tech is down 1 so far this month it is. But when we use the term liquidation, scott said why are we down 200 plus and the answer was technology came out really strong and you did begin to see a liquidation of the longs from last week. Not what they have held over the last five years. Last week tech was the place to be clearly. Quidating wasnt the best word. Okay. Were selling. Its the same thing. People that are coming in long from last week, they are selling. Its semantics but i wonder how much of this is the fact that value has been now put it in my bank account thank you thats why the wlliquidation wod is the extreme point well taken though lets quibl over the use of the word im wrong. What i will tell you is that ive got qqq put positions that ive put on since yesterday morning that are doing fantastic. So lets talk about making money. I used the wrong term. Im sorry josh isnt here because he is the one that pointed it out and said in the Financial Planning conversation. I get all that lets talk about making money. All im saying is there is a possible dynamic in the market very near term phenomenon where you could see money going to energy and come out of technology isnt that a fair point would this be part of the same market that weve betradin in the last 18 months or so . It didnt mean liquidation im wrong well, it made sense i thought we moved off of that shouldnt have used the word. So when you take profits here and put them over here, that i agree with re were rotating what is the end game with north korea . The end game to me is that chism jongun clearly wants to have nukes and china because nukes are the only way he stays in power. If you look at the other powers, you have pakistan, nukes they havent changed the arerege where there are no nukes, whether iraq or egypt, they changed the regime so he wants nukes. That is what china wants as well that will keep volatility in the market and provide opportunities. I hope tech comes down more. Id rather own on them and transports id sit up tall because my wallet was fuller a month ago, but i think today is a good buying opportunity the interesting thing on delta yesterday though when they lowered guidance as opposed to united, they didnt mention the hurricanes whatsoever. I think its important how is the market positioned, how is it positioned in rates, in technology and ill ask everyone on this desk because im considering it now, incredibly bearish sentiment towards energy, right . Is the street positioned long energy no now you see oil approaching 50 today. Do you make the rotation, go into the xle if you make it, make it quick because it will go right back down the trade for oil is always to sell it so you say sell, you say its going higher i think that is a relatively important question energy is a great value play fp. The problem with energy, every time weve seen energy and we see all the activity, weve seen it, its been a head fake every single time. So that has been the headache. If you talk about transports, if i could take back every energy trade i put on this year, holy crap, id be doing incredible. Three days ago when oil was at 46, everyone talked about the apocalyptic scenario because of harvey and maybe assessing the debt ceiling where paul ryan said democrats are playing polling ticks. Eamon javers, as leaders of both parties meet wgt president reporter thats right. Just a few minutes ago and we believe that meeting has actually wrapped up. The president is getting ready to take off on marine one to go to north dakota later today where he will be talking about tax reform and making a pitch on that issue we dont know what transpired in this meeting though. The president just beforehand in the little snippet that we got said a lot of decisions would be made in this meeting because its one of the rare opportunities for the president to meet with both democrats and republicans facetoface across the same table and hash some things out including the debt ceiling, Hurricane Harvey funding, Hurricane Irma which is bearing down on florida, all the sorts of issues on tax reform and now immigration added to the mix as well with daca this week revoking that on a six month basis going forward. So where they all landed on all those issues is anybodys guess at this point. Well try to find out from the white house staff and reporters up on capitol hill will talk to those leaders when i they gtheyc to their offices and you sort of said it, the most significant part of the meeting was the optics of both sides of leadership in with the president because at least to my recollection, when was the last time that has happened since mr. Trump has been president reporter that is a good question i should have that stat and i dont. I cant remember the democrats being up here for a meeting within the past couple of months at least but im sure its happened, but its a very rare thing mostly because in this age of tweeting and media and omnipresent president , we kind of know where everyone stands and they dont did a lot of facetoface talking this was a chance once they escorted the cameras out to sit down and hash some stuff out well see if there is anything in this very sort of poison partisan atmosphere, if there is anything they can agree on facetoface working rather than just chatting thanks very much another big story is the monster storm taking aim at florida. Caylee dionne has the latest for us reporter this storm has broke the record of sustaining more than 18 on 0mileperhour winds for 24 hours the previous record was 18 hours set back in the 80s with al when so it is a beast of a storm and right now were watching the change in track. If you look at the spaghetti plats, they are all sliding further to the east like matthew did last year and then going up into the carolinas hurricane warnings for puerto rico, dominican republic, up to the bahamas and much of cuba Everyone Needs to prepare. We need to talk about the different elements that are in play here because the big question is where does it go from there turks and caicos and when does it turn to the north there are a couple different ways here. The track is sliding to the east, but it all depends on what this trough that jet stream that you see right there, it all depends on how far that erodes into this area of High Pressure over the atlantic. And we wont know that until we get into really friday into early saturday and then well know when it will turn to the north. But either way, weve been talking about this throughout the newsroom that this storm is massive, it is 400 miles wide in regards to diameter. And that is almost three floridas so either way wherever this goes, there will be Hurricane Force winds that impact those of you around the florida coast and everyone should be preparing now even into the carolinas and georgia, that would be coming sunday night into monday thanks so much. Meantime there is breaking news and good news for those folks suffering in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey Dave Albright<\/a> quite a bit, its taking the investment demand away from financial equities and its going into financial debt because rates are so low and because of the regulation. They have so much on their balance sheet. So i think that is a negative. Is there is a breaking point for socks here as bond yields continue to go down, people wondering what is going on and there is a breaking point eventually this ominous sign for stocks . I think you need to break down what is driving the move lower. One is the debt ceiling discussion which is ongoing and we heard from now pelosi and schumer this morning about what they are putting on on the table which is a short term resolution in terms of funding for harvey and ryan by the way who called that proposal outrageous or another description this is the beginning of the communication, so they will come back to the tables, we should hear from the republicans later this an and then after that well hear again from the democrats. But i think that short term what is driving yields lower is concerns about debt resolution, the debt ceiling as well as the 2018 budget. Over a longer term, i think the two primary drivers is first that inflation continues to be weak and then related to that is the fact that Central Bank Policy<\/a> remains very accommodative and i think that the news about fischer leaving the fed earlier than expected also clears the deck for trump to potentially put mowre dovish candidates in place. That said, if we get a resolution this week on the debt ceiling, we probably get a move higher in yield but i wouldnt expect a breakout. Rick, do you and the folks in chicago think were going below 2 , and if that happens, what do you think it does mean for the stock market i think the possibility of spending time under 2 is highly likely but i think that the amount of time we will spend under 2 or even closer than we are today to 2 is going to be rather limited. Most of the forces that are pushing rates down are either temporary or have a lot to do with outside fixed income markets. So when you look at our low yields, you think, wow, our yields are about the same maybe even higher than some of the yields for high yield in europe. So there is a relative value issue there. But it isnt the type of economic relationship where you see super weak data and the treasury area is where you get the first signal so you dont think were sniffing something out no. And i think the Government Shutdown<\/a> is always great foerde. But there is no dire consequence here its a great opportunity, but hard to handicap how much of this type move lower is due to those political debt, debt ceiling, and legislative issues i can guarantee you that delivering alpha on this coming tuesday, you will later a lot of bond bubble, bond bubble, bond bubble, this maybe being a sacc this conversation. But do you turn it into a stock problem . I think it drives investment into stocks. Why would you put money there when its a bubble and its a worsening bubble that weve seen people keep doing it. Women, they do. Everybody says bubble, dont put money in bonds and its been a bubble for years already. Were in year five of the bubble i believe. But what i was interested to hear, or not to hear rather, is that fear didnt creep into one of your reasons for rates being so low and i think a lot of it is driven by the fear trade the disparity between yields in europe and the u. S. Actually is less than it was just a month ago, so that is not what is driving it and in fact you have draghi closer to cutting back on qe so i dont think its disparity in yields. As a matter of fact im receipry sure its not. I think a lot is the fear in trade and that view is ratified by what we see in gold you can imagine a scenario in which stocks can go up if bond yields go below 2 yes yeah, absolutely. You dont being the thet the narrative unless you have the events that the bond market fears occurring. I agree with steve, i think the reason were seeing bonds where they are is fear and you brought up gold as well. We talked about gold weve seen the paper coming into not just gold, miners, but silver, all of that. Weve watched copper move to the up side. So are people a little fearful absolutely that is why were seeing movement in bonds. But i agree, that doesnt mean that you wont see the markets continue to move higher. Werm at highs the other day and look at the xlk. You talk about technology. That is the great performer. And you look at the permit answ performance. Where is it . Off 1 . It performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . \\t performance. Where is it . Off 1 . \\t performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . T performance. Where is it . Off 1 . Performance. Where is it . Off 1 . Performance where is it . Off 1 . Performance where is it . Off 1 where is tech today it has screamed higher for the last month and a half or so. You look at where microsoft was, apple, facebook and all of those as they came into earnings and the movement out of those, this has been a pretty incredible move to the up side. It goes back to the postelection and financials they have been on a pause ever since. I wish that they would start to move again of course, but obviously this correlation with the ten year has been pulling on those financials ever since. But the numbers but what is the fear . Everybody is using bonds are its the fear trade. What is the primary fear that you both are focusing on maybe its playing too much which i can chicken with the de. North korea has to be in there somewhere. And youre watching the game of laser tag with nukes between two fiveyearolds and when fiveyearolds play laser tag, parents wonder who will get hurt. If that was the fear, do you really think youd see gold only at 1344, really gold has had a move [ everybody talking at once do you typically see gold move up when inflation is moving down but its degrees. Its the degree. Oh, my god, inflation and gold havent been on the same wave lechk f length for 30 years sgl paul, why dont you weigh in. I have a slightly different view what i think is that north korea just joined the nuclear club and they are in it in the same way that china did in the 60s []and then pakistan and india came in. Now, its a pretty tough regime to deal with, but the market needs to get used to it. That was 7 to 8 basis points in the ten year im not as worried about the debt ceiling because i dont think politicians can play with the debt ceiling with these two harvey and now irma. So that leaves the big one that we havent discussed today the tru trump trade. I think the way that trump is just berating his own party right now is putting the whole concept of tax repeal in question personally i think it will be fine but i dont think that the bond market thinks it will be fine. And to your earlier question, would the asset market be fine if the ten year broke 2 , id say no stocks would dump because there would be a reason. Im surprised that you think stocks could continue to go up i think it depends why the ten year is breaking 2 . Well never know a reason why. Do you know definitively why its at 2 2. 06 . I think if the debt ceiling does not get done, yes, stocks will go down but weve seen kashkari and bra brainiard gave powerful arguments for why the fed has to be cautious in terms of raising rates in the future. That will drive yields lower and if we hear trump having to appoint a new person to replace fischer, if he puts someone in who is more dovish, that could also lead to yields being under pressure those would be bullish signs for the market so ifif that scenario works e way you think, where do you put your money to work i agree with you there. That because has been on and the because has been on and that will continue to be on because of that correlation with the bonds. Tech looks questionable it looks questionable really after a great run, yes. You look at where tech just was a couple days ago and where it is now, down less than 1 , i dont know if id call that questionable i think people are starting to question whether that trade is going totally disagree. I agree with pete growth is still there, still moving i have to come back to one thing. I agree from the long term standpoint that inflation doesnt have the correlation with gold. However, on short term moves, spikes inflation, it absolutely does, rick so hopefully that puts that to bed i dont think, all i know is [ everybody talking at once at justed for inflation, that is 2300. Weve never come close long term basis, i agree. I never believed it. On a short term basis, short term spikes, you will see gold reacts and rick, thank you for being on the program with us today as far as it correlates with the fed. Central banks are the only fear in the fixed income market because rates go where they want them to go and that scares me rick, again, appreciate it. Good to to have you on the program today. Do you care at all about transports i do. United cuts outlook twrans ports is like the great divergence because i think when will that thmatter i think that has been ongoing. And to go back to tech, i guess i disagree with steve and pete he yes, technology is very close to its high. But i think its important to understand positioning and i just think that the speculative community is so attracted to technology right now and what we witnessed last week was it ctechnology lead us alltime highs and we seemed to lose technology yesterday at a certain point and that is concerning to me that is an overstatement to say lose technology. How did we lose technology yesterday . And you brought up the same thing. I dont get this at all. Wasnt nasdaq down more so than the others . And technology was down maybescreamed to the up side and its now in the pause phase. Speculative positioning came in incredibly long in technology and yesterday it tried to break out early. We saw a little bit of a failure. And now what you are beginning to see today is youre seeing a little bit further of the weakness and now some of the money going into energy. And if you are going to have that formation where you have a value play like energy attract money, money will come out of somewhere. Im not saying that Technology Overall<\/a> is by anywhere near done im sure it will be a lot higher by the end of the year but im trying to understand what is going on and it looks like you might see temporarily a source of funds i agree and the pause. [ everybody talking at once youre making it sound like everybody said we have to start telling tech i never said that yesterday you used the word li liquidation. Can i play my role of calming voice . Please. I think its too early to judge a day and a half move in tech the volume is light. I think tech will come back. What is important is that the growth aspects of the companies themselves has not changed at all. You will see netflix up today for example. That is a bounce and that is a bounce where there is a true controversy over the fundamentals there is no facebook was down earlier facebook has some news. So its flat. So i think were okay on. But listen, all were doing is i think were just raising awareness and what is also go ahead. Yesterday when i used the term liquidation im all good, i just dont understand something that is not down more than 1 and suddenly they are liquidating assets. Well, tech is down 1 so far this month it is. But when we use the term liquidation, scott said why are we down 200 plus and the answer was technology came out really strong and you did begin to see a liquidation of the longs from last week. Not what they have held over the last five years. Last week tech was the place to be clearly. Quidating wasnt the best word. Okay. Were selling. Its the same thing. People that are coming in long from last week, they are selling. Its semantics but i wonder how much of this is the fact that value has been now put it in my bank account thank you thats why the wlliquidation wod is the extreme point well taken though lets quibl over the use of the word im wrong. What i will tell you is that ive got qqq put positions that ive put on since yesterday morning that are doing fantastic. So lets talk about making money. I used the wrong term. Im sorry josh isnt here because he is the one that pointed it out and said in the Financial Planning<\/a> conversation. I get all that lets talk about making money. All im saying is there is a possible dynamic in the market very near term phenomenon where you could see money going to energy and come out of technology isnt that a fair point would this be part of the same market that weve betradin in the last 18 months or so . It didnt mean liquidation im wrong well, it made sense i thought we moved off of that shouldnt have used the word. So when you take profits here and put them over here, that i agree with re were rotating what is the end game with north korea . The end game to me is that chism jongun clearly wants to have nukes and china because nukes are the only way he stays in power. If you look at the other powers, you have pakistan, nukes they havent changed the arerege where there are no nukes, whether iraq or egypt, they changed the regime so he wants nukes. That is what china wants as well that will keep volatility in the market and provide opportunities. I hope tech comes down more. Id rather own on them and transports id sit up tall because my wallet was fuller a month ago, but i think today is a good buying opportunity the interesting thing on delta yesterday though when they lowered guidance as opposed to united, they didnt mention the hurricanes whatsoever. I think its important how is the market positioned, how is it positioned in rates, in technology and ill ask everyone on this desk because im considering it now, incredibly bearish sentiment towards energy, right . Is the street positioned long energy no now you see oil approaching 50 today. Do you make the rotation, go into the xle if you make it, make it quick because it will go right back down the trade for oil is always to sell it so you say sell, you say its going higher i think that is a relatively important question energy is a great value play fp. The problem with energy, every time weve seen energy and we see all the activity, weve seen it, its been a head fake every single time. So that has been the headache. If you talk about transports, if i could take back every energy trade i put on this year, holy crap, id be doing incredible. Three days ago when oil was at 46, everyone talked about the apocalyptic scenario because of harvey and maybe assessing the debt ceiling where paul ryan said democrats are playing polling ticks. Eamon javers, as leaders of both parties meet wgt president reporter thats right. Just a few minutes ago and we believe that meeting has actually wrapped up. The president is getting ready to take off on marine one to go to north dakota later today where he will be talking about tax reform and making a pitch on that issue we dont know what transpired in this meeting though. The president just beforehand in the little snippet that we got said a lot of decisions would be made in this meeting because its one of the rare opportunities for the president to meet with both democrats and republicans facetoface across the same table and hash some things out including the debt ceiling, Hurricane Harvey<\/a> funding, Hurricane Irma<\/a> which is bearing down on florida, all the sorts of issues on tax reform and now immigration added to the mix as well with daca this week revoking that on a six month basis going forward. So where they all landed on all those issues is anybodys guess at this point. Well try to find out from the white house staff and reporters up on capitol hill will talk to those leaders when i they gtheyc to their offices and you sort of said it, the most significant part of the meeting was the optics of both sides of leadership in with the president because at least to my recollection, when was the last time that has happened since mr. Trump has been president reporter that is a good question i should have that stat and i dont. I cant remember the democrats being up here for a meeting within the past couple of months at least but im sure its happened, but its a very rare thing mostly because in this age of tweeting and media and omnipresent president , we kind of know where everyone stands and they dont did a lot of facetoface talking this was a chance once they escorted the cameras out to sit down and hash some stuff out well see if there is anything in this very sort of poison partisan atmosphere, if there is anything they can agree on facetoface working rather than just chatting thanks very much another big story is the monster storm taking aim at florida. Caylee dionne has the latest for us reporter this storm has broke the record of sustaining more than 18 on 0mileperhour winds for 24 hours the previous record was 18 hours set back in the 80s with al when so it is a beast of a storm and right now were watching the change in track. If you look at the spaghetti plats, they are all sliding further to the east like matthew did last year and then going up into the carolinas hurricane warnings for puerto rico, dominican republic, up to the bahamas and much of cuba Everyone Needs<\/a> to prepare. We need to talk about the different elements that are in play here because the big question is where does it go from there turks and caicos and when does it turn to the north there are a couple different ways here. The track is sliding to the east, but it all depends on what this trough that jet stream that you see right there, it all depends on how far that erodes into this area of High Pressure<\/a> over the atlantic. And we wont know that until we get into really friday into early saturday and then well know when it will turn to the north. But either way, weve been talking about this throughout the newsroom that this storm is massive, it is 400 miles wide in regards to diameter. And that is almost three floridas so either way wherever this goes, there will be Hurricane Force<\/a> winds that impact those of you around the florida coast and everyone should be preparing now even into the carolinas and georgia, that would be coming sunday night into monday thanks so much. Meantime there is breaking news and good news for those folks suffering in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey<\/a> Kayla Tausche<\/a> has that story the house is voting currently, the vote count is climbing for that first installment of the mar have i aid package and currently does have enough support to pass and not only enough support, but overwhelming assume. The vote count is 300 yeses and climbing at this point this is roughly 8 billion, about 7. 5 billion will gee o to fema and half a billion toward Small Business<\/a> rebuilding efforts in the texas and louisiana area but of course this is just a small fraction of the Recovery Funding<\/a> that is going to be needed but it is a symbolic and significant step in the right direction. Congressional leaders this morning said that the administration said fema has said it could run out of money by friday to tuesday if there isnt expeditious action here on the hill both in terms of getting these funds disbursed and also potentially moving on the debt ceiling of course we expect when this bill that is getting voted on right now reaches the senate, that it will be coupled with a push to increase the debt ceiling. Unclear how long a raise that would portend. Democrats pushes for three months republicans want it to be longer well see if there is compromise and what that looks like but of course with the new hurricane approaching, time is of the essence with getting some expeditious action here. All right Kayla Tausche<\/a> on capitol hill for us paul richards, thank you as well here is what else is coming up the call of the day is next. Find out about one analysts big move on apple. The stock is already up 50 in a year see where this call has the stock going next plus najarians are both seeing unusual activity they each isolate one stock set to move. The Halftime Report<\/a> is back in two minutes. Hey gary. Oh. Whats with the dogsized horse . Im crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. Isnt that right warren . Well, you could get support from thinkorswims inapp chat. It lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you dont need a comfort pony. Oh, so what about my motivational meerkat . Inapp chat on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Whats Critical Thinking<\/a> like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley welcome back less than a week away from apples new Product Launch<\/a> and kn nomura is confident in the iphone super cycle and they raised price target from 175 to 185. Better late than never good to have you here. Good to be here had to fly around the storm. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Pete made it hes coming from much further north. I got a better plane. All right apple price target, 185. Are you as confident in the super cycle as nomu rmra is . I am. I know its been fluttering back and forth across 160, its either been 160, 163, back down to 160 its bouncing around a little soft today. It was softer yesterday. But even on a selloff yesterday, came back two or three dollars off the lows yesterday gave a little back today i like the call. I dont think it moves though until about two weeks from now im glad you went there because gene munster from piper, one of the best known voices on apple, was on the network yesterday. And said there could be a 10 pull back in the stock that traditionally there is an announcement and what he says is a tailoff. And it could be as much as 10 on . Well, that is historically how its worked. Youve always had the big runup into the announcement and then it sells off however i think that has played out pretty well. As you recall, i think it compresses early but if they come out with the innovation they should befitting a 10th anniversary model, i think youd see it accelerate after the announcement, but that is the key and they have to show they have some innovative gas in the tank. For example, you take a look at alexa. They were first pete, cover your ears. You take a look at alexa, they were was first you want to name all the other only one example. That has played out no, it hasnt and here is why. Siri was first on the scene. They could have been alexa, but they werent so they have to prove that they are innovative and cutting edge again. If they do, the stock trades nicely here. What is the price on this phone going to be . 1,000. I dont think people care i think it has price elasticity. Do you want to do your body slam to this guy its all good hes been wrong for so long and he proves my point every time. I own the stock i know you do i finally talked you into being on board because innovation is not necessarily as important as you always like to point it out. Its being the best. You dont always have to be first, you have to be best and that is where apple has stepped up each time dont be satisfied with status quo reach for the next level im saying its a Great Company<\/a> as it is they could do even better if they ib know straig inknow swrat. They dont charge you interest at least presently. You want to buy it 24 months, 41 bucks. I did the math for you if you take a look at 800 phone, 33 bucks. Is there is a deal breaker without as many of the upgrades in a steven thinks and i believe also will be part of this phone . No i think price is i could think of a lot of quote unquote Status Quo Companies<\/a> that are out there apple aint on that list really status quo they have to they are a Status Quo Company<\/a> . Yeah, with their technology they have their ecmbedded base market has dipped in some areas. It is what it is a Great Company<\/a>, cash generator, huge cash overseas i get it but at the end of the day, its a Consumer Products<\/a> company with very large margins, much larger margins than any of the competitors and the question is as it was with blackberry, and this is no blackberry before you get too excited the high better polly yperbo charts you cant argue against the innovati innovation i love the air buds. These are great. Erin. I disagree. I mean, i think that tell me where have they have innovated . What other companies every year come out with a complete refresh where they are innovating or announcing another product . [ everybody talking at once its not necessarily how they innovate, its how he they are integrating innovation theyre copying better than anyone else. The touch screen their marketing is phenomenal, to convince the people sitting here that this is what they are doing. As long as they are integrating it into a more seamless platform, they are innovating as far as delivery to the end consumer youre acting like they have the number one market share cellphone company in the world their market share far trails samsung. Why is w which is why they a more up side [ everybody talking at once would mercedes like to . I dont know. That plays into the tesla argument, too. When you push out a whole bunch of cheaper products, are you degrading your brand and that is one of the issues that people worry about with the new tesla model. Mercedes has done just that they lowered their brand retention is the word to focus on i got two flats on the way to work yesterday i shouldnt have brought up mercedes sorry. Ahead, we are trading more stocks in todays blitz. And well take a look at Hurricane Irma<\/a> while it is ripping through the caribbean as we speak we have the very latest straight ahead on what looks like an incredibly dangerous storm can i get some help. Watch his head. Im so happy. Whatever they went through, they went through together. Welcome guys. Life well planned. See what a Raymond James<\/a> Financial Advisor<\/a> can do for you. To err is human. To anticipate is lexus. Experience the lexus rx with advanced safety standard. Experience amazing. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Not rebalancing your portfolio. Pursuing your passion, not reacting to market downturns. Focused on what you love, not how your money will last through retirement. Let us help you with those decisions, and get on with your life. We make it easier to plan for retirement with day one target date funds from prudential. Look forward to your 401k plan. For tech advice. Dell Small Business<\/a> advisor with one phone call, i get products that suit my needs and i get back to business. Lets head to sue herera who has the latest headlines here is what is hams is happg Hurricane Irma<\/a> making landfall in the northeast caribbean earlier this morning churning toward puerto rico, dominican republic, haiti and cuba before a possible direct hit on south florida over the weekend its diameter is a whopping 400 miles. Now well go to breaking news because the president is on his way to north dakota, he will be trying to sell his tax reform. He is making comments there. [ inaudible the audio is obviously not as good as we would have hoped. The weather is also bad in washington so lets continue telling you about Hurricane Irma<\/a> basically it is as i mentioned about 400 miles wide which is three times the size of florida. Floridas governor rick scott says every Single Person<\/a> in that state should prepare for irma. He spoke with the florida keys earlier this morning we are preparing for irma to directly impact our state. While its still too early to tell where the storm will hit, it is critically important that all floridians keep a close eye on this incredibly dangerous storm. Do not sit and wait for the storm to come. Its extremely dangerous and dead lily and will cause devastation. And people are listening because the lines are long waiting to buy gasoline. It goes on for several blocks and there are similar scenes at other gas stations as well so you are uptodate. We are monitoring irma well go to ty now because they are taking a look at irma as well on power lunch. Yes, well coming up at the top of the hour on power lunch, one of the most powerful Atlantic Hurricanes<\/a> maybe ever slamming the caribbean and now on track to hit florida precisely where, unclear well track the storm and the preparations which sue just described in part moment ago plus three netflix for all well, not exactly all. Well tell you which company is offering its customers the scre streaming service for free and why this deal could shake up the industry and holy guacamole, avocado prices hitting alltime highs. What it could mean for some of the strareaunt stocks. The Halftime Report<\/a> will be back after this your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement<\/a> in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Theextreme risk of burstd a pipes and water damage. Y. Soon, Insurance Companies<\/a> wont pay for damages. That is, not if they can help prevent damages from happening in the first place. At cognizant, were turning the industry known for processing claims into one focused on prevention with predictive analytics, helping them proactively protect the things that matter most. Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. Were back time for the blitz hg supply is moving higher on earnings pete fp. And its a stock that has been hit hard so far, down 23 , but they matched on the earnings and beat on the revenue. Sales up 5. 5 year over year solid print, you can understand why the stock is moving higher id expect to be moving even faster its not ill stay away and sarepta on the news yeah, muscular dystrophy cure they came out with a drug last year it was a great stock its rumored to be a takeover candidate virtually every week nice spike here, but they are a ways away from bringing this through the fda. Im staying away invvariably it will fall back and newell. Hurricane related, has to do with the mississippi region, louisiana region this is affecting names like clorox and package companies and newell brands. This is a stock though that has been in decline over the last four are or five months. Down to 46 i think that it is getting to the point where you buy it facebook may be inflating its ad reach by millions yeah, and hes also a little worried about how they exactly pay for all the content that they are supposedly aggressively buying obviously they have a lot of competition out there, buying this content and how do you run ads against it those ads of course are what television does every day. And you dont do the same thing when youre streaming them and if you are indeed pitching to an audience that is not really as big as you say it is, that is a problem. So to your point, facebooks ad manager claims the potential reach of 41 million 18 to 24yearolds and 60 million 25 to 34yearolds in the United States<\/a> the only problem with that is that u. S. Census data shows that last year there were a total of 31 Million People<\/a> between the ages of 18 and 24 and 45 million between 25 and 34. Fake news the numbers are a little off. Fuzzy math. Home building stocks are up and i i like it low rates are good for Home Builders<\/a> and i think rates will remain fairly low and so that will continue and in the rebuilding of harvey, in the 90 days post recovery, what benefits . Home builders have been the standout outperformer. All right up next, quadruple dose of unusual activity with jon and pete, two new plays along with two updates. That is coming your way next plus oil prices hitting the highest level in nearly a month. Well go to the futures pits next and we are continuing to track Hurricane Irma<\/a> the category 5 storm moving through the caribbean towards florida. Well xwreget you up to date where the heart beats warm and true, thats texas. Where we always welcome you, thats texas. Where we always find a way, thats texas. This is a strategyis, fid recommend. Huh. This actually makes sense. Now on the next page youll see a breakdown of costs. What . Its just. We were going to ask about it but we werent sure when. So thanks. Yeah, thats great. Being clear and upfront. Multiplied by 14,000 Financial Advisor<\/a>s, its a big deal. And its how edward jones makes sense of investing. Welcome back blor brothers gentlemnajarian have al dos double doze. Weatherford, take a look at the stock. Its moving up a little bit, not huge a lot of it probably Hurricane Harvey<\/a> related now some of it could be irma as well weatherford up about 2. 5 . People are in there aggressively buying the 440 50 calls. As you see, over 13,000 of these. The first block was huge, one of the largest weve seen in weatherford. That is an institutional player putting on a big position. Ill probably be in these about two week i bought them. Next one, take a look at adi they came scrambling into buy the 87. 50 calls. So about 5 higher than where the stock is right now, they are buying those with the october time frame again, big block, 5,000 went across all at once i bought in this one ill probably be in these also about two weeks because of the october time frame quick update take a look at this. Its bled off a bit. This is one of those where i had to walk away i bought into this one at almost 2 and have since cut my losses here today, judge. I lost about half of the money on this particular trade its not like i dont like baba but im trying to be disciplined so i walked away pete what about you im going to hit an energy stock we talked about during the first part of the show and stayed away from but one that worked well is nrg in july, a huge buyer just ahead of this move right here. Stock was trading 16 buying july 17 calls stock was up to 24 before you could blink. Now theyre coming back once again. Stock has been in this pause for a while. When we see nrg theyre doing october 26 always aggressively buying thousands of these rapidly. 65 cents is what theyre paying for these. Just under 6,000 of those. Really aggressive. Interesting to see that energy jontalked about and so did i a quick update here on vale. If you look on the 21st, this is where the stock was trading. Thats when we were talking about the unusual activity ive rolled over since then because those performed extremely nicely those more than doubled. I went back and out because they started buying the 12 strike calls. I want to be in this trade the trader who has been coming in with huge paper has been right. I want to ride along those coattails. Thank you very much come over here crude oil is rallying for the fourth straight session. So, scott, check out whats happening here Overall Crude Oil<\/a> rising to the highest level in nearly a month. Is this a reaction to whats happening with Hurricane Irma<\/a> . Unequivocally its a reaction its a stark contrast to Hurricane Harvey<\/a> if you remember a week ago, the prices dipped to 46 due to those refineries no longer buying or demanding oil. Now we have the flip its a onetwo punch for shorts in crude Oil Refineries<\/a> are coming back online now demand is picking up also the crude Oil Uncertainty<\/a> of the production level is really easy. Opec opportunistic they came out and said theyll extend their agreement they want this trajectory of crude oil to go above 50 shortterm is this just a temporary bump for crude or do survive factors come to play and we see lower price as we head toward wintertime if you look at the chart, you see that were in a downward channel. Weve started that earlier this year a series of lower highs and lower lows thats continuing. Were still within that channel. Were at the high of it now. We wont break out until we get much above the level that jeff mentioned thats 50 a barrel. If we get convincingly above there, all bets are off. All right thanks very much, guys, for that take on oil. Check out the live show tomorrow 1 00 p. M. Eastern time on futures now. Check it out and of course the halftime will beac bk right after this commercial break, guys this is where i trade andrs. Manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access<\/a> 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Has gotten to know our business so well that is feels like hes a part of our team. With one phone call, he sets me up with tailored products and services. And when my advisor is focused on my tech, i can focus on my Small Business<\/a>. A dell advisor can help you choose the right products with powerful intel\u00ae core\u2122 processors. Listen up, heart disease. you too, unnecessary er visits. And hey, unmanaged depression, dont get too comfortable. Were talking to you, cost inefficiencies and data without insights. And fragmented care stop getting in the way of patient recovery and pay attention. Every single one of you is on our list. For those who wont rest until the world is healthier, neither will we. Optum. How well gets done. Aggressive styling, so you can break away from everyone else. The bold lexus is. Experience amazing. Not rebalancing your portfolio. Pursuing your passion, not reacting to market downturns. Focused on what you love, not how your money will last through retirement. Let us help you with those decisions, and get on with your life. We make it easier to plan for retirement with day one target date funds from prudential. Look forward to your 401k plan. All right. Were back with breaking news. News that could in fact affect the stock market today our colleagues at nbc news and nbc politics are reporting that the president told hill leaders that he is okay with a threemonth continuing resolution and a threemonth debt limit increase to be added to the house Hurricane Harvey<\/a> relief bill, which was passed within the last hour keep an eye on stocks as a result of the president reportedly according to our colleagues at nbc news and their Politics Division<\/a> saying that hes okay with a threemonth continuing resolution and a threemonth debt limit increase, so thats potentially big news to follow throughout the rest of this day at the very least lets go around the horn and do final trades before we get out of here. Sap in a sideway range. I think it breaks higher if we do get this threemonth extension, you see financial rallies on the back of it. Materials scream higher i had to take off some of that u. S. Steel and im completely off. Good stuff. Does it for us power lunch starts now the strongest atlantic hurricane ever now crushing the caribbean and targeting the u. S. Next florida is in the crosshairs its much, much bigger than harvey and its potentially catastrophic were tracking the storm and the preparations straight ahead. Netflix for free tmobile turning up heat on the rivals what it means for the mobile phone wars and after a major selloff yesterday, were back in the green today. Whats an investor to do now the reasons to buy and the reason to sell this market power lunch starts right now","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia600404.us.archive.org\/7\/items\/CNBC_20170906_160000_Fast_Money_Halftime_Report\/CNBC_20170906_160000_Fast_Money_Halftime_Report.thumbs\/CNBC_20170906_160000_Fast_Money_Halftime_Report_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240629T12:35:10+00:00"}