Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240622 : comparemela.com

the horizon with energy experts. plus, the drop in crude could be seeping into the banking system of our neighbor to the north. the royal bank of canada's ceo joins us in a cnbc exclusive on the back of his company's earnings. >> also ahead how much of what we see in the rally is the result of the fed trying to calm market volatility. we're live in jackson hole with the latest headlines. don't forget, of course, the new york fed president, importantly, spoke today. >> he did. and markets are reacting. let's get to full team coverage of these markets. bob pisani tracking the moves here at the stock exchange. courtney reagan over at the nasdaq. how do you feel going into the close today? >> better than yesterday. i want to show you the dow. at this time yesterday, we were fading going into 3:00. that is not the case right now. dow jones industrial average is essentially almost at the highs for the day. i think 16,100 right off the open. we're essentially there back to the highs for the day. the markets in the middle of the day. trend, morning, slow fade, and a midday rally and that's been holding and the breadth was changing. and it's moving towards 3-1 advancing to declining stocks, volume's been heavy. we've had a lot of buying in beaten up sectors. look at some of these heavy etfs. oef, that's the s&p 100. materials and technology have had big buying, as well here. come on over -- let me show you something. a lot of volume on stocks beaten up that are up today. exxon mobile. who would've thought this. the last time you saw it up, 4.6%. look at that volume. twice normal volume. we could do 30 million today. that's a nice move. the moves have been holding up. come on over here. home depot, for example, it's right near the highs for the day. it was 114 and change. it's right there right now. that volume almost 7 million shares on the heavy side. right over the right here, nike, right near the highs today, up 3.5%. no big fade here as we enter into 3:00. finally, just come on over here. i'm moving around a lot here. but ibm is another one. it was 145 right after the open, and it faded a little bit and everybody said, oh, it's going to happen again. but no, it's come right back and sitting right below its highs at the open. this is exactly what you want to see. and of course, remember yesterday, we had a wave of sell orders come in the last hour. market on close in balances. i'm going to keep a close eye on them throughout the next hour. and, of course, kelly and simon, i'll keep you up to date on that. back to you. >> bob, let's see how we go. >> courtney, how do things look from where you are? >> like bob said, a little bit better than yesterday. and august keeping us on our toes. so much for a quiet month. earlier in the session, we began to see that drift lower, which is what we saw yesterday but earlier in the session. and just when we think we knew what was going on, things drifted high. look at that, we're a couple points off the session highs off the nasdaq with an hour to go. the trend looks strong. anything can happen here, but tech is leading the way again today as it has been for the last several days. we'll see how much of the gains. like google, like apple. up 6% at the highs of the session. down 7% for the week. the second half of the day. many of those chip names are leading the nasdaq 100 and they slowly began to move their way back up the leader board throughout the session today. up 6%. up more than 5.5%. even intel, when was the last time you saw intel up 5%? back to you guys. >> thank you. >> joining our "closing bell" exchange now, we have keith fitzgerald, ben willis from princeton securities. welcome back to all of you. what do you make of this turn around? think we're going to hold here today? >> i think we do hold. and we've been talking about the market on close and balance since yesterday. people should know what happened yesterday was a function of the market working correctly. because the new york stock exchange -- rather than in the last second of trading which is the way it used to happen. just a development of a system called market on close order types that came into the marketplace. but we used the news by humans to tell the world that you're going to have a chance to buy stocks cheaper than they were an hour ago. >> i think the bigger picture is here after six days of decline. not only are you up over 400 points in the dow. there are only 25, 26 stocks of that in negative territory. this looks convincing. >> well, technically, it certainly is, you're seeing high volume, institutional buyers come in on a lot of value if you've got the right perspective and the right time frame. it's a logical place to do a lot of buying. however, i'm also acutely aware and feel leery myself that traders have got one eye on the exits. >> it's not just stocks that are rebounding, moving higher, talking about almost 2.18%. this one's been as volatile as the rest of the market. >> yeah. skun what my guest today, had sell signals a the the end of last week. if you're looking at the 30-year bond, it's been sticky to the upside. where did they close yesterday? 207. they're up ten basis points. my memory's correct, this will be the highest yield close since a week ago yesterday. the 30-year bond is up 30 basis points. this will be a three-week high yield curve. early this morning, traders on the floor were looking at the selling and treasuries saying, well, our interpretation is they're not worried about another stock route. and that proved to be quite correct. >> i think we should mention that we've had the new york fed president bill dudley talking on what we assume was a well thought out series of comments about where we're going with interest rate policy, ben willis. he says that the case for september rate hike is less compelling than he was. is that partly why we're rallying here? >> partly, but he also finished up saying that there's more important data to come that can easily make it compelling very quickly. i'm still of the mindset that the fed has missed an opportunity to let rates rise naturally. i've been using the term behind the curve. i've not insinuating they're behind the yield curve. they're behind the curve ball being thrown in this market. they're not going to be able to hit it. they need to let the rates rise naturally, not tighten is what i'm trying to avoid saying. >> we're seeing the dow up session highs, up 450 points. flip side of what we saw yesterday. bob pisani, to see what the market on close orders look like today so far, bob. >> yeah, and market on close orders is an attempt to aggregate all the orders to buy and sell for existing stocks on the floor. this is done amongst the trading community. there's roughly 200 million to sell on the close. now as benedict pointed out, that's a small number. on a typical day, you'll see 300 to 600 million to either buy or to sell. yesterday, part of the problem is that this time of day, we were seeing 1 1/2 billion to sell. that was a large number and it increased as we went through the day. this number today indicates nothing much happening at the close. bear in mind, this is a constantly moving number. it's very fluid. doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen that way at the close. we'll be here with you all through that close. back to you. >> thank you, bob. keith, you mentioned you think traders have one foot out the door. why is that? >> well, traders are a very fickle bunch. they remember when money moves in and out. i personally cannot shake the conviction that this is some sort of bear trap or short-covered rally. i want to make sure i'm cautious. i think it's a good time to put new money to work to catch that upside if it's there. by the same token, i don't want to take my eyes off the risk management ball, not for a second. >> traders are a fickle bunch. and traders may very well and should have one foot out the door. long-term investors, however, should not. they should be in both feet in deep here. this is a buying opportunity, this is a correction. i've been looking for for three years. >> that is the correction. there is no more. we bottomed. >> can we go lower? yes. however -- i'd be spending money right now, i'd be spending money right now betting the corrections in. >> by the way, people are according to morgan stanley which put a note out on this today. monday was the largest day of global net equities on an emotional basis since 2010. people are apparently getting their sea legs back for, you know, 24, 48 hours here. is there any indication from chicago, from what you're looking at as to whether the bottom's been put in here? >> i haven't bumped into one trader of futures that believes this process has come to an end and it's all going to be north. they are a bit more friendly today, but the process needs to be understood. it's about fed normalization and the time line being altered by emerging markets, particularly china. i wouldn't look for this volatility top end anytime soon. and i think that reflects sentiment on the floor. >> it is an extraordinary figure. it's one thing on a monday morning for the market to have difficulty opening and falling 1,000 points, it's quite another albeit to climb to that level of the 500 points. >> before falling to a gain of about 130 midday and climbing back up. let's get a final thought here. go ahead, keith. a final thought on both the volatility that we're seeing and what, if anything, you are buying here. >> i tell you, i like defense, tech and certain health care resources in here. i don't think the volatility's over. i expect more selling ahead, and like i said, my instincts of 35 years of doing this, i can't shake the fact that i've got to pay attention to my gut. i think there's going to be more selling to come. >> keith, i'm sorry to be so dim here. if you think the market hasn't bottomed, why are you buying here? if you think there's going to be greater opportunities moving forward. how far do you think it could fall? >> well, don't forget, buying and selling is not a one-off decision. if you use risk management along the way, you nibble in, trickle out if you have to. you don't want to miss the updraft. it's like an elevator. you've got to be on that. now, if something goes wrong and the markets start to reverse, you put risk management into play, step out and wait for things to go. but don't forget, it's not an all or nothing decision. it's a constant ebb and flow like the ocean. got to be in to win. >> and people are apparently in today. the dow is rising 515 points. leave it there for now, guys. thank you all. about 45 minutes to go into the close. the s&p up 60 points here, as well. and the nasdaq up 3.5%. >> coming up on the program, the fallout from the commodity crush. the ceo of royal bank of canada tells us how his firm is able to keep the profits buoyant despite what's been happening to the energy sector north of the border. that is an exclusive interview on cnbc. and up next, a $12.7 billion buyout on the oil service industry, he will tell us whether he thinks this is the start of a consolidation wave across the space. ♪ no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. how about some whiplash. the dow is up 519 points. all major averages here will be having their best day since 2011 with gains of about 3.3% to 3.6%. let's look at the nasdaq. 100, the narrower index here. there's the s&p up 2.3%. let's zero in on the nasdaq for a moment. the qqqs, popular etf to trade. up more than 4%. only about seven names out of the 100 are in the red, simon. >> let's take a closer look at some of the movers this session. transocean is amongst one of the worst performers in the s&p today. the offshore drilling company planning to cancel its next two dividend payments pending an october approval by shareholders. transocean also plans to take write-downs of more than $2 billion. citing the deterioration of the offshore drilling market and concerns about the timing of the market's recovery. in contrast within the same sector, schlumberger, the world's leading oil field serves its country by buying cameron international. cameron is the number one provider of surface well heads that control the flow of oil from underground reservoirs. this deal will allow both companies to streamline supply chains and bundle their services more effectively, which might be key, kelly. >> and is this deal the beginning of more consolidation across the energy space? joining us now is the editor of the shork report. >> great to be here. thank you, kelly. >> when you read the news on schlumberger, what was your first thought? >> well, finally, i guess, all yearlong, it's been a game of waiting for this consolidation to appear, but it has with the exception of shell bg has been an endeavor that we continue to look forward. part of this was thanks to the rebound in price in the second quarter of oil prices. which allowed levered enp companies to lever up even more. but now with the price decline, we're going to get to see who has been swimming naked in this market all yearlong. now, i think this deal, it all comes down to timing right now. because we've got prices crashing since june/july, and now we're going to go ahead into the fall where the banks generally redetermine their credit facilities to the enp companies. now, with these companies' inability to hedge in this price environment, it's all going to come down now to cash flow. what we're going to be looking at in the third and fourth quarter is credit lines being cut to these enps, which, again, is now going to create a strain on cash flow. so what do you do? look to squeeze out productivity. look to sell assets. now, if you're selling asset in this market, selling into a buyer's market. if you are a highly levered company, you are easy pickings right now. so this is now finally at this opportunity for a cash rich company to swoop in and get some bargains now, finally, in this market. >> how do you -- how do you explain to people the risk/reward then in that space given how very choppy it's going to be? i'm struck by one line in what you told one of our researchers. the u.s. industrial complex is now in recession. what does that mean? >> absolutely. oh, i absolutely believe that. if we look at any of the indicators with regard to the headlines out there, that there's an absolute lack of growth on the industrial side, on the smock stack economy of the united states. and this has been one of the biggest drains. because as we've increased our ability to leverage these enps, they haven't cut down production. they're still producing a lot of oil, a lot of gas. it's not being sopped up in the market because there is a lack of demand on the industrial side. look, there is a reason why, not just oil prices collapsed $40, $50 a barrel, but if we look at the entire industrial metals complex, it has completely collapsed. that doesn't occur because of good economic growth on the industrial side. they collapse because there's not enough demand to offset the supply. >> let's look at the crude price, steven, which i believe you said for some time you thought was going to drop. now that we've hit $39 a barrel, how much lower does it go from here? >> at this point, we are disconnected from the fundamentals. so technically, we shouldn't be down at this level. but we are here, so there's no fundamental to tie into this market. now as a trader, you're looking for psychological numbers. during the great recession, the oil implosion in late 2008, got down to 32.40. now that we broke the $40 barrier, the next target is that low from 2009. so certainly, i am still bearish. because right now, we came out of this summer, demand for crude oil in the united states has never been stronger. 17 million barrels a day throughput to the refineries. and yet, all we did with this record demand is watch oil prices drop 40%. now we're past the peak demand season. we're in the fall where demand will be the weakest of the year. and because we likely pushed ef fall/spring maintenance, we'll be taking a lot of demand out of the market very soon. crude oil prices can fall 40% when demand is at its strongest. what's going to happen when demand falls to this weakest part of the year? so certainly the template for lower prices is there. >> and we'll see how the companies respond to all of that, steven. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> and we have now 39 minutes to trade. this is a big finish here potentially for the market. up 565 points on the dow. the question is, is it historic? is today the day we say that the august swoon of 2015 ended? it might be historic in a different way at the current point levels. it'll be one of the largest point gains we've actually ever had. up next, william dudley says the september rate hike is looking less compelling. steve liesman will have the latest details live from jackson hole. >> also coming up, the head of one of the biggest banks in canada will speak with us exclusively. low oil prices have been taking their toll on the economy north of the border. find out what their effect could be on corporate profits moving forward. here at td ameritrade, they love innovating. and apparently, they also love stickers. what's up with these things, victor? we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those? he does. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. 35 minutes to trade, and the dow has absolutely rocketed on the session overall. currently up 546 points. the last time that the dow closed up 500 or more points was back in the middle of november 2008. if these gains hold, this will be one of the biggest gains on a point basis in the last decade. meantime, let's have a look at where we are on the dollar. you could debate why the dollar would be higher in this environment, but that's clearly where we are. you can see the yellow indicator flags against those four currencies indicating that the greenback has made gains. i would argue that's a risk-on basis in an environment where the euro or the yen rocketing as carry trades was a risk off. >> well, william dudley saying a september rate hike looks less compelling. steve liesman has the highlights from his comments for us now. steve? >> bill dudley became the highest level official on the federal reserve to address the recent market turmoil. and he said it did reduce the chances of a september rate hike. doesn't eliminate them entirely. here's what he said. >> from my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago. but normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting. as we get additional information on how the u.s. economy is performing. >> no secret behind the decision. said international events had increased the risk and impact the rate hike timing. didn't obviously take it off. he said it's important for -- not to overreact. but the federal reserve not to overreact to the market turmoil suggesting it'll go away. and the low inflation that could come from this including lower commodity prices as well as the stronger dollar. he suggested is transitory. said they're not going to both go down forever. he says, i hope we can raise rates this year and by that, i believe, he meant growth is strong enough. inflation ends up working towards the target of 2% and that job growth is strong enough to allow the fed to raise rates. and said, hey, look, generally the federal reserve is doing okay. so the u.s. economy is doing okay relative to other economies. and we did, guys, get some decent u.s. economic news this morning in the form of better business spending. kelly? >> steve, let me pick it up. it's reasonable to read this as a carefully constructed response by the fed. it's simply one of reassurance that the fed is monitoring developments and on top of the situation. fair comment, would you think? >> i think so. my understanding is might have written those comments today. he knew he was going to be asked about, going to give a speech. and i think what's happening, simon, the system works in that the market guesses what the fed is going to do based on things the fed has said. and i think they probably guessed right. i'll talk about that more in the 4:00 p.m. hour that the market did push later its expectations for rate hikes by the fed that first rate hike. >> steve, it's stunning backdrop where you are. it's going to be a really interesting couple of days out there in jackson hole. and we should add to everybody, the interview with kansas city fed president ether george tomorrow morning on "squawk box" around 6:30 a.m. eastern time. >> hope you get fishing in, steve. >> i'm sure he will. >> time now for a news update with sue herera. >> thank you very much. here's what's happening this hour. officials say they do not yet know the motive in the fatal shooting of a tv crew in virginia. reporter allison parker and camera man adam ward were killed during a live interview at a shopping center in virginia this morning. the alleged shooter was vester flanagan who was a former employee at that station. he died of a self-inflicted gun shot wound. went by the name of bryce williams on air before being fired from the station. walmart says it'll stop stocking semiautomatic weapons at the stores because fewer are buying them. they will replace them with more hunting rifles and shotguns. state department says u.s. ambassador to japan caroline kennedy used a private e-mail account for official business but did not violate agency rules. they did not say whether kennedy herself had sent or received sensitive information. a 26-foot arctic whale was rescued after getting stuck on a new zealand beach for six hours. look at that poor thing. volunteers poured water on the mammal to keep it wet as they waited for high tide. the whale managed to refloat itself and shepherded out to sea. so a happy ending to that one. but apparently a close call. kelly, back to you. >> thank you, sue. 30 minutes to go in the trading session today. people will be watching to see if we can hold. now an historic gain. yes, gain for the markets. in percentage term, the biggest gain in four years. it could be one of the biggest of all time if we stay up here. >> more importantly, changes the direction of the market here. after -- after six down days, we rose on the seventh. up next, a top trader will tell us what he's watching as the final and most important half hour of the day winds down. find out if he thinks stocks will hold 526 points on the dow. plus, the head of royal bank canada giving his take on oil's drop and the impact on his company. stay tuned after this. we bring you live daily market updates. >> and today, we have a special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us wanting to know our secrets on how to trade options. >> so we put our secrets into a new book. if you're one of the first 250 people to call in right now and cover shipping and handling, we'll send you a copy for free. so you're a small business expert from at&t? 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>> well, seems when we've got within a whisker of hitting the circuit breakers, that was the spot. it would have been interesting to see what happened because that's when the regulators get an opportunity to see if the markets are really functioning. when we get to these things. things stabilize on their own. today, all green. >> and are you guys seeing a lot of buyers of all stripes coming out here? who do you think is driving? >> first off, we're seeing across the board buying. seems a lot of the selling the last couple of days was emotional in nature. overreaction to some of the headlines coming out. obviously, the fed speak today was encouraging. but, yeah, we've seen volumes elevated, and we're seeing a lot of interest in the buy side coming from a lot of different sectors, healthy gains here today. >> we'll let you get back to it. on the floor this afternoon. simon? >> thank you very much. bank of canada moving slightly lower today. the company reported a 4% rise in profits. and a 3% increase in its quarterly dividends. but it also showed a spike in impaired oil and gas loans, feeling the pressure from the collapse in oil prices. here in an exclusive, we're joined by rbc president and ceo. welcome to the program. >> nice to be here. hi, simon, high, kelly. >> how were you able to increase the profitability, increase the dividend when clearly the economy is deteriorating. >> when you look at the core strength of our very solid performance in q3, it comes back to our retail operations in canada. when you look at the canadian economy, what's underpinning that growth, the economy is struggling somewhat with the first five months. if you split the energy parts of the economy. the nonenergy part of the economy, which is 83% of gdp is performing around a 2% growth. when you look out our core results, we had very strong performance for our mortgage business, our credit card business, from our business lending. and business deposit side. that really did drive overall good results, 5% growth, very slow environment as far as credit losses go. that part of our book is very strong. half of our performance. and therefore, gave us the confidence looking forward, the stability of that growth to raise the dividend. >> yeah. >> and look at the overall context of the results in that case. >> you mentioned, again, raising the dividend, being a significant move here. there were a lot of traders who want to pile on and look for the next shoe to drop as crude oil falls. what happens if we have crude at $35 here for some time? and what happens if the canadian stock market is some of the bears are now suggesting, corrects by 30% or 40%. can you guys weather that? >> absolutely, we'll put it into context, only 1.6% of our total lending book. that gives the context of our energy drawn portfolio of $7 billion. and when we stress that at $35 this year and look at the forward curve next year into $45. the stress results from that exercise indicate we're going to stay within our overall credit cycle loss profile of 40 to 50 basis points, which is something we've been talking about for quite a while. and they're manageable as far as our earnings go and earnings growth opportunities. >> the cfo on the conference call today said the regulator has reapproached you as becoming a globally systemic financial institution. that gets monitored more closely than others has an awful lot of red tape wrapped around it. critics would argue and has to improve its capital base. if you are given this designation, how will it affect the business, the profitability and shareholders do you think? we'll find out some time at the end of september, we expect. if you look at the ratio of 10.1% and compare that to where comparable level one are, we're at a capitalization level that is similar to others. therefore, we don't really expect to see any material incremental capital. there will be more reporting, more oversight coming from the regulator, which we'll have to manage the cost profile of that. when it comes down to the capital base, we feel we're well capitalized already. >> dave, just a final thought here on the market volatility that we've seen. concerns about the chinese economy, thoughts that the federal reserve may not be raising rates afterwall. how do you operate in this environment? you have a lot of u.s. exposure, that piece of the business doing well. is it optimal for you for rates to stay low? would you prefer they rise? >> the core of our u.s. operations is our u.s. capital and market operations. very strong growth over the past quarter, particularly in the investment banking, m&a debt origination businesses. and obviously they benefit from activity spurred by a low interest rate environment. when you look out the growth aspirations and the wealth management side of the business where we're serving wealth customers who have deposit and investment businesses, they're more impacted by a low rate environment. particularly when we look forward to our growth agenda when we close the citi national acquisition, our fiscal q1 next year. >> dave, thanks for joining us this afternoon. >> thanks, kelly. >> that's dave mckay, president and ceo. 528 points on the dow. if you looked at the s&p 500s of those 500 stocks just 12 are red. it is a big broad-based rally. >> there's the heat map. you can see how much green on that screen. and biotechs, by the way, having the best day in over two years. up next, if you think you've seen the signs of a bear market the last few days, guess again. what to look out for now. i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. 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>> i think there's a lot of relief. the traders have been watching the market on close orders. these are orders to buy and sell stocks at the close. massive waves of orders to sell right at the close. it was roughly $3 billion. that's way above normal. we are not seeing that today. right now, we have indications. informal, but a little more than 500 million to sell at the close. statistically very normal. $300 million to $600 million to buy or to sell. nothing unusual about this. and i think people were quite happy about that. throughout the last hour or so, haven't seen anyone big spike-up in sell orders. by the way, kelly, last time the dow was up 500 points or more, november 13th, 2008. and remember something, the dow was half this. 8,000 in november 2008 as i recall were exactly twice that. not as much as a big move statistically as it was in 2008. but, still -- >> many of us are still quite impressed. raising plenty of red flags on wall street lately. still, are those flags flying towards a bear market? are you going to rain on our parade, as well, dom? >> i don't plan. i don't want to rain on anyone's parade. but i want to provide, perhaps, a little bit of balance to the story here. that way you, the viewer, and all of us can make our own decisions as to where the market's going to go. here are some of the experts on wall street and what their takes are. we're going to start with the reasons why, maybe, if we see certain things happen this could be the sign of bad things to come in the stock market. first of all, steven, right there at the new york stock exchange where you are, he's watching gold prices. we haven't seen a huge move into gold and silver. but if that were to happen, maybe signaling some panic, that could be a reason we could see more pain ahead in the future for the stock market. that's one take. also earnings, the strategist says, you know what, dom, the q2 earnings picture wasn't that good. and if oil and commodity prices stay this low and china continues to be a problem, the q-3 earnings season could be weak, as well. that could provide a little bit of a tail wind for the bears to take the market down lower if that were to happen. and the third thing here, we'll talk about, is the commodity prices. slumping commodity prices, not just oil, not just these energy-related issues here, but things like copper, iron ore, all of that stuff may be signaling, perhaps, slower economic growth around the world. that says cliff noreen. he says that could be a real reason why, if that were to happen we could see a bear market ahead. so, again, a lot of reasons why there are still risks out there. not to say they're going to really rear themselves, but for right now, it's on the radar for a lot of traders, investors, and portfolio managers. back over to you guys. >> thank you very much, dom. 13 minutes to trade, and we're up 590 points on the dow. >> up next, putting market's wild swing into perspective. we'll be here to sort it all out. don't miss it. we're back in two. mornings. wonderful, crazy mornings. we figure you probably don't have time to wait on hold. that's why at xfinity we're hard at work, building new apps like this one that lets you choose a time for us to call you. so instead of waiting on hold, we'll call you when things are just as wonderful... [phone ringing] but a little less crazy. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. welcome back. just under ten minutes to go, and just over 600 points higher on the dow jones industrial average. this could be a record-setting point gain here today. joining us now is art cashin. what do you make of it? >> it was set up by last night's close. people came in wondering would they see a repeat? was last night about redemptions and etf spillouts? a lot of people waiting to see if we would have a meltdown. maybe 500 to 700 million, it was nowhere near the 3.5 billion we had yesterday. those people waiting and hoping they would take advantage of a meltdown found the clock was running out on them and they had nothing else to do. the shorts had to cover. that's why we're closing close to the top. >> it's a fairly powerful signal to everybody, isn't it? if you've got a session like this after six sessions that were down? >> no question about it. this was a good close here. and unless something particularly disruptive happens overnight in china or somewhere else, they look like they want to come in and rebuild a foundation here and see if they can get, if not the bull market going, at least form a base to go from there. >> what are the significant levels to figure out whether we've entered the down trend or enter a new uptrend? >> you've got to get past the highs of the day before yesterday. and if we can move up through there, then we'll say, okay, that phase is over. we've made new ground. the difficulty was you rallied back yesterday and you didn't take out the former day's highs. and for a long time today, you didn't take out the former day's highs. now that you're in better shape, it gives credibility to the market. >> and some of those levels for people on the dow, 16,530, couple hundred points from that. 1,140 on the russell. >> maybe a little higher, around 1960, 65. >> that's why we love you, art. >> okay. >> unbelievable. thank you so much. >> my pleasure. >> after the break, i think you're going to stay with us. i hope so. >> okay. >> yes. you are. we're coming up with the closing countdown and it says it here, art. more art cashin. it took joel silverman years to become a master dog trainer. but only a few commands to master depositing checks at chase atms. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank. the gillette mach 3 turbo still feels better after 10 shaves than a disposable on it's first. mach 3 blades have twice the coatings. for a closer shave with zero redness. get an incredible experience shave after shave after shave. gillette. the best a man can get. ♪balance transferot to othat's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're searching for, creditcards.com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one that's right for you. just search, compare, and apply at creditcards.com. ♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪ ♪ ♪ if you can't stand the heat, get off the test track. get the mercedes-benz you've been burning for at the summer event, going on now at your authorized mercedes-benz dealer. but hurry, offers end august 31st. share your summer moments in your mercedes-benz with us. so you're a small business expert from at&t? yeah, give me a problem and i've got the solution. well, we have 30 years of customer records. our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep it all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. add new business services with at&t and get up to $500 in total savings. it has been staggering price action during the course of the week here. you go monday, tuesday, and then today. we're bouncing around 600 points higher on the dow. we traveled 6,500 point s on th first two day days. and today, we closed down. that is clearly not the case. that's very important for many people. >> it was another wild day, but with a very different outcome. and i think what was important, two things we rallied going into 3:00. once 3:00 hit, when we saw the market on close orders that there was not waves of sell orders at the close, which there was yesterday, and everyone saw yesterday and everyone sold ahead of that, people today saw there was very, very modest sell orders. psychological. >> absolutely. as i said a few minutes ago, that caused short sellers and others who were hoping to benefit to come in and have to pay up. and i would say this to the viewers, if we get by tonight without any big disruption, we may be able to shift your focus of attention back to oil again. >> are we at some kind of bottom here? people down here made money on the big volume today. nice to see the guys on the floor. would you agree, it's a little too soon? >> yes, it's difficult to have a true v-shaped bottom. and i think you've got to look for a couple more choppy days in here. looks like you're building a base. >> the ways of force selling have come to an end, importantly, haven't they? >> it would appear so. but there's no reason for margin calls, again, unless you have another big dip down. >> all presumably, the etf redemptio redemptions. or you've been saying for a long time that the mutual funds had record low levels of cash. that hasn't materialized on today's session, it would appear? >> no, it was evident in last night's close. people would not be redeeming neutral funds. >> right. >> that would not be a problem for them anymore. >> you said it was important to take out the highs of yesterday. i don't think many people -- can we have a look at this? many people chart the dow industrials. we're kind of up there as a market indicator. >> 63. >> so, i think, and the -- in the s&p, i think you've got another ten points or so to go. >> and the good thing about it, the rally's been broad. at the top, i'll show the big names, but right across the board, all of the big names are up, two, three, 3.5%. exxon had massive volume. most of the volume today were towards stocks going up on the upside. people were trying to buy the most beaten down things. >> when you come back to oil, is that a negative moving forward? the energy sector could slip further? when you say watch that. of course, now we have m&a. today with schlumberger at least within oil services? >> yes. but if west texas began to break 38 and looked like it was going lower, i think it would bring in sellers into the market. conversely, if we get back above 40 and look like we're going to hold that, people will feel encouraged. i think the fulcrum will be the west texas price. >> it has looked relatively strong. coming through this period. hasn't it? >> it's getting there. but tomorrow's thursday and jackson hole opens. we'll have something else to talk about there. >> cue stanley fisher. >> that's a very large number. 600 million is typical. 90% of the volume is to the upside with about 4-1 advancing. a lot of value going to the stocks on the upside today. >> you should get another run-up. >> thank you, both. "closing bell" continues now on cnbc. with kelly evans. >> thank you, simon. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. and the volatility, i want to say continues. the vix actually lower today. but just look at the dow jones industrial average, up 621 points on the close, nearly 4%. that's good enough for one of its best point performances in history. and on a percentage basis, one of the best days for the major averages in four years. the nasdaq, the outperformer of 4.25% adding 191 points. in all but wiping out the declines of 199 points there on monday and tuesday for that index today. tech stocks were outperforming. let's send it over to courtney reagan for more. hi, court. >> good afternoon, kelly. what a final hour of trade. the exact opposite of yesterday. we saw that downward move until about midday and things started to climb higher. if you take a look at the technology sector, we led all day. best day in four years. and take a look at the biotech etf, the ibb. this actually went negative right before 1:00. you can see it just ever so briefly. and it ticked up higher by more than 5%. its best day since april of 2013. look, again, at the internet software and services. a further drilldown into some of the tech strength we're seeing here. look at this, a gain of 6.4% for this group. really just strength across the board. take a look at the chip sector. why not? we're running through them all. look at the strength toward the end of the day, nice move higher there. really strong momentum move up 5% for the chips and a lot of those big chip names, like nvidia began to climb the board on the nasdaq 100 and kept that pacing for the rest of the session. we're not forgetting about our other big momentum players like an amazon adding 7.5%. the main news, of course, they're adding delivery services in their hometown of seattle. but really, this was a momentum move for amazon as it was for apple. it's worth showing you because it's made some pretty big moves over the last week and today it also added another big one the most recent high down around 20% or more. >> let's get over to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what do you make of the late day jump? >> it was another wild day with a different ending, and for a good reason. let's take a look at the dow jones industrial average. remember towards the close yesterday, we were sinking like 400 points. the opposite happened today, a lot of people felt the absence of heavy sell orders on the close, which we had yesterday, we did not have today. when people saw that, they began buying. some of this you might attribute to short kcovering. a great rally overall, and we move forward throughout the afternoon. take a look at the markets midday. here the trend, slow morning fade, but a big midday reversal. 4-1 advancing to the declining stocks. in the middle of the day, it was advancing declining stocks, very much on the heavy side. the heavy buying -- core etfs, core holdings for a lot of people. the russell 1,000 had big moves up. materials names and energy etf had heavy volume there. look at a couple stocks. exxon mobil went straight up throughout the day, hit 25 million, 28 million shares. that's twice normal volume for exxon. straight up, visa, high for the day was, you know, below 68 at one point, we were below that, and you can see we ended -- the charts look the same. home depot, was 114 and change after the open and we passed that, as well. finally, the vix collapsed in the last hour as everybody could see that there wasn't going to be heavy selling at the close and right at 30, we were at 2990 right here going into it. i can see we closed at 30, still, big move to the downside in volatility throughout the day. 619 points on the dow jones industrial average. >> say it again, 619 points. joining today's panel, we have cnbc contributors john najarian and carol roth. and with more is guy adami. dr. jay? >> massive volume. third biggest rally in history. the big rallies came in '08, kelly, when we were digesting lehman brothers and what the government would do to stop the bleeding. and we had big selloffs, rallies, same thing as we're seeing right now but without lehman brothers. >> looks like we were going to follow the pattern of yesterday. the gains started out real strong, we were giving them up, we turned negative yesterday. today was the total opposite of that. we seemed to just all of a sudden get this momentum. what do you think accounted for that. . >> well, we were doing that thing on "fast money" halftime where we call the close. one of the reasons i was optimistic was that selloff came at about 12:30 today. not at 2:30 or 3:00 as it did yesterday. so, yeah, we were melting yesterday, but where we saw people jumping in and more or less trying to take advantage of the pattern that you and bob pisani and mel lee have talked about and now we take them down, today, third time was not the charm, they caught them, and those people scrambled to buy them back along with new capital being deployed. volumes were like 200%. this was a heavy volume day. people trying to play short seller for the first time. >> that's what you're saying. he saw a lot of short covering going on. so is this for real? just as impressive as this gain is, going to be the legions of people looking at it saying, wait, wait wait a minute. what is the trend here still? >> well, you know, i'm somebody who has been a little bit more bear cubbish about the market. . however, that being said, i felt like it pulled back too much. and even i deployed capital yesterday right into the close. there were a lot of people that felt it had come off too much. and from when dudley made those comments, i think that was a big thing, as well. the fact that, you know, i, again, have been in the camp that the fed was not going to raise rates in september. i think that made it super clear that they're not going to raise rates in september and probably any time this year. that probably gave anybody who was thinking about maybe going short or putting in sell orders some pause and allowed the market to recover. >> you brought up the comments from bill dudley. guy adami, what did you make? there were a couple different ways to read his remarks. one was that the case for september had lessened, but the other was, hey, there's still a lot of time between now and then. and as i read the notes coming in from people writing up yesterday's declines, they already seem like they're talking about the ancient past. >> yeah, i think a lot of time between now and then. i think that's the way i would look at it. i want to be absolutely clear. you know, if i'd been on with y you. was the worst day of the last week and a half. i think the move to the downside today. people have some sort of context to where i'm thinking. people are ready to call a bottom and in which they do it with. i do think when options traders get short volatility, they have to sell the lows and buy the highs, i think we're seeing a little bit of that. i do think it's a bold move within a larger bear market. if this thing the s&p can get above 1,980 or so and sustain it, i would have to reevaluate. >> and kelly -- potentially could again. however, if you're a long-term investor and you have a long-term view, it seemed like a reasonable entry point over a long-term strategy. >> i'm not saying it's -- >> i want to be clear, i'm not saying, just listening to some of the commentary throughout the day and some of the things i've read. this is not directed to anyone on the panel so we're crystal clear. >> we had the biggest volume going into global cash equities on monday that we've seen maybe ever. what does that tell you? as a contrarian signal, wouldn't you want to buy this market when everyone's running away from it? >> well, we've highlighted the indicators at levels nobody has ever seen. put call ratio, even relative strength indicators at strange numbers. everything flashed a buy signal and flashed it on the monday late monday. i think the problem is this -- could be oversold for fairly long periods of time. that's why i'm not convinced the volatility is going away. i think we -- what caused the decline if you think china caused it, the fed caused it. dudley eased concerns about the fed, if everybody believes that and that's the case, then that may be a major factor in easing some of the conditions that created this big drop that we've had. >> i'm going to agree with bob about the volatilities not going away. but it's going to go away faster, bob, in my opinion. and it's going to come back faster, because of the speed of trade. because how fast capital gets deployed here. because of investor time frames and how they have shortened over time. most aren't in the warren buffett camp of buying something and owning it. some of us are slightly longer than that. >> on monday morning, we went through an entire year's trading cycle in a half an hour. panic buying where we had a 600-point rally. you can go a whole year. >> i agree. and you've done a great job covering that. kudos. >> let me put the question to everybody here. as we're trying to take stock of where the opportunities are, what should you be buying? what looks attractive. >> what can't you keep your hands off? i think, for example, i don't think it's broken by any stretch of the imagination. i think the secular move, the story about visa and mastercard is absolutely still intact. i think the refiners finally gave up the ghost to the downside, a trade i've liked that i was wrong about over the last week or so. but there's nothing that sticks out to me as a raging buy or right now raging sell. i don't think we did it necessarily today. >> can i make one last point? the durable goods number. the numbers this morning, the economic numbers were exceptional. and i think it highlighted the fact that we have numbers that are very different than china's number. >> same question, carol to you. >> yeah, i would say there are names like disney. that really have gotten beat up over the last couple of weeks that if you're not looking for a short-term trade, make a lot of sense. there are also some financial names. trading at 75% of book value. that seems like an attractive entry point. again, if you have that long-term investor perspective. >> i agree with carol on disney. it was one of my four picks on monday. those four picks, again, i published it on cnbc.com, as well as on our site, option monster. facebook, apple, disney, and exxon mobile. these stocks have absolutely outperformed like crazy you've got star wars coming our way. there's going to be a significant driver. fantasy football. >> glued to fantasy football and espn. that's going to be huge for these guys. the disconnect people thought was going on disney, that's not real. >> real quick. >> can you weigh in on the long bond, too? we saw it jump in yield almost 20 basis points, which, you know, when yields are this low, that's pretty significant. and the ten-year yield was moving up, too. what do you make of the swings today? >> got to give kudos to brian kelly who pointed it out. perhaps there's some chinese -- maybe they're selling treasuries, i have no idea. i will point out this. and i do think we mentioned this the other day. when the market had that blood bath the other day. the tlt, the bond market closed unchanged on the day we sort of talked about that as something to watch. clearly, there's some dislocation going on. maybe there are external factors at work. it's clearly something you have to be aware of over the last few days. you're going to see some of that. hi, dom. >> a little clothing here. guess shares right now posting about a 6.5% decline. 168,000 shares have traded so far. with gas, we've got an earnings beat, 21 cents. analysts expecting 15 cents here. 546 million, $538 million was the average expectation. but it's always the forward look. falling below estimates, again. that's weighing on the shares, again, these shares were just about flat. about 1% to the upside year-to-date and giving up about 6.5% in the afterhours right now. also on the pvh front, as well, coming out with an earnings per share number of $1.37, beats the estimate of $1.29. revenues coming in at $1.86 billion versus estimates for $1.82 billion. the full-year guidance for earnings per share also comes n in, perhaps, a little bit better. slightly. $6.90 to $7 is the change. analysts on average looking for $6.92. they also gave strong q3 earnings per share guidance. as a result, those shares showing signs of life up there about 3.5% in the after hours session. we will note the trading volume so far for pvh about 18,000 shares for that 4% gain. these shares were down 13% year-to-date heading into this number. back over to you. >> thank you, dom. and thanks, everybody. be sure to stick around and catch guy adami on "fast money" at 5:00. they'll be talking to one strategist who doesn't think china's actually to blame for the market's extreme swings over the past week. find out why at 5:00. and for the past week, china has been the center of the financial focus of the world. up next, we'll go live to beijing and preview what's ahead for the chinese markets, which will open in a few hour's time. and still ahead, the ceo of capital strategy is joiningtous give his take on the markets and the risk to dividend names. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. a new season brings a new look. a chance to try something different. this summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. ♪ the 2015 cadillac srx. lease this from around $339 per month, or purchase with 0% apr financing. [female announcer] if the most is the staying awake part, day sleep train has your ticket to a better night's sleep. because when brands compete, you save during mattress price wars. save up to $400 on beautyrest and posturepedic. get interest-free financing until 2018 on tempur-pedic. plus, helpful advice from the sleep experts. don't miss mattress price wars at sleep train. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ welcome back. we're now just a few hours away from the opening of asian markets. live in beijing. what can we expect from the session today? >> reporter: well, the chinese government was continuously trying to restore confidence in the session overnight. after the market closed, the central bank injected $22 billion of liquidity into the banking system. and this comes after a revival of some of the heavier handed tactics that was used by the government earlier in the summer. the authorities said that they were going to restrict index futures trading, also they said that in the words of the official state news agency that they were going to purify the capital markets. some of the chinese police said they were going to continue ratchet up their investigations into illegal trading, insider trading, as well as rumor mongering. overall what we're seeing here is a continuation of a very scattered shot, inconsistent approach. and a lot of people say that really is an indication the chinese government is not in alignment in how to fix this problem. the security regulator or the national leadership. another interesting development we saw here overnight was the fact that the authorities appear to be in damage control mode. there were various state media reports that seem to be aimed at the global investment community. a lot of it was talking about how the -- a lot of people outside of china just don't understand china. and there was one report in particular that quoted a researcher at the central bank in china, the problem is the fed. >> eunice, certainly on the minds of people down here. everyone trying to point the fingers at one another, i guess. and in the meantime, that chinese investor who was piling into the market now just seems to have lost that confidence either in the market or in the leadership or maybe in both. what's it going to take to get it back? >> well, it's going to take a lot of effort. right now, we're seeing a campaign from all over the place trying to boost investor confidence. people are looking for silver linings all over the place. the media through people's daily, which is one newspaper was trying to explain to people this could be a good time to buy a house now that interest rates are falling. also, there's an interesting story in one of the papers how one company is now instituting what they're calling sad stocks day, and that means if you have a 30% loss in your portfolio, you can take a day off. everybody's trying to help make investors feel better about what's happening right now. >> wow. okay. hadn't heard that one before, eunice, that's why we love you. thank you so much. how did you like that as a policy? >> well, i wouldn't want to be having to take a day off. that 35%ugly. >> pretty shocking, yeah. >> and as eunice said, doing just about everything they can to try to make it less painful. >> eunice quotes this investor as saying, i guess the world doesn't really understand the chinese market. correct, we don't understand the chinese market. and therein lies the problem. and i think one of the big issues is the disconnect between the chinese stock market and the chinese economy. i think what is spooking the markets over here and perhaps around the world is that the stock market really is tied to the economy. in fact, we had this on this program a couple weeks ago when i said, that's what we need to be paying attention to. and this could really be a bigger signal of a chinese slowdown. and i think that's what people are much more concerned about. this is a spillover into the chinese economy and not so concerned about the inner workings of the chinese stock market. >> for sure. in a couple hour's time, we'll have better indications about the asian session today. much more ahead on today's powerful radical lip on wall street. up next, an exclusive interview with john levin who thinks one move the market is pulling would be the worst decision ever. find out what that is next. welcome back. what do you see? watching here as shares are off by 4.5%, almost 5% at this point. the volume, however, a little bit more on the lighter side. so far, just about 67,000 shares have traded so far. this after william sonoma comes in with earnings per share of 58 cents. that matches the average analyst estimate. also, revenues coming in slightly better. $1.13 billion, looking for $1.11 billion. however, the q3 earnings per share and sales guidance fell below analyst estimates, hence some of that down move to, again, here, for, again, a stock that was up about 10% over the year-to-date basis and about 11% over the last 12 months. a little bit of momentum erased here, again, down by 4.5%, 70,000 shares have traded. earnings match, slight beat, forecast disappoints. back over to you guys. >> thank you very much. william sonoma down about 4.5%. also, some big news today among the dividend players. transocean hitting the pause button on investor payouts for what's left of this year. citing the deterioration in oil prices as the culprit. the question is how many others might follow suit. in a cnbc exclusive, we are joined by john levin. do you think will will be many others forced to follow? here's the big risk? >> i don't know from a specific standpoint, kelly. but i think that where you have lots of leverage and commodity prices is where the dividends will be or with relatively low coverage of the dividends. that is not true of the major industrial companies. i was watching your screen. you know, the pfizers, johnson & johnsons, walmarts, all are well covered, backed by cashwell. it's a stock by stock, industry by industry thing. >> what do you make? we closed up 619 today after these really sharp declines of prior trading sessions. >> what is going on? >> i was hoping you were going to tell me. you have better information. the -- i think my -- what's going on is a lot of different things. but i think that it is fair to say without question to try to add value that for three, four, five days, we have had intense selling. you've got values down to very low prices with cash flow and yield. and this was sort of a reflex you see in any bear market. it was perhaps more intense. it was justified, i think, it'll tend to make people more bullish because of the many bull reasons. but i -- >> are you bullish? i mean, do you think generally we're still going higher? >> i think there are more positive than negative factors and a wide range of them. i think that the, particularly because i think the decline was characterized by some surprise in the sense that there weren't that many new negative factors other than china market and maybe china activity. but one thing i did want to say before, trying to make it clear that there is a huge mechanical aspect to the stock market. and it could be expressed many different ways. but monday, at the opening, had a huge mechanical aspect related, yes, weekend sailing, friday weakness, but the panic to getting etfs open. there was no reason for the stock market to go down. russia and everything up four. the sale program put it down and that scared people. >> john, from the retail investor, the long-term investor standpoint when they hear programs, they cause panic from their standpoint. is that something you should be concerned about? >> no, and most long-term investors shouldn't be. and most of the public is not in the market. partially because of this volatility that scares them in '08 and '09. but the real long-term investors, my wife says buy and hold, john. don't worry about it. >> this week, there's also been a lot of talk about whether we get rid of corporate earnings, more harm than good. making the market too short-term focused instead of long-term oriented. you got a view on that? >> i couldn't wait to call you about that. great judgment, great expertise and great legitimacy because a big fund which has almost $1 trillion petitioned the british government to do what he said to do which was to stop quarterly earnings. it would be hard to me to find an idea i disagree with more. >> why? >> we have five months to discuss it, i hope. the owners of a business should own what they own and why. if you create information vacuums, what happens? you have rumors, you have inside information trading. the executives are buying their stock when they're down and selling their stocks on program. then you have all the mechanical things. so a stock's down 10% and the rumors start. if you know what the last earnings was and what the forecast is, it'll damp down volatility. tends to say that stocks should trade based on what everybody knows. this is a blind's man bluff market. >> can i give you with just the one last second a chance to give you one name you like here in this market? >> i think pfizer meets all the tests people should like. it's got a 3.56% dividend, an entrepreneur running it. ian reid committed to shareholder value. if you get repatriation, he'll do something in the u.s. it's been off consumer. if you don't, he'll buy something abroad. >> we love your defense of corporate earnings. >> and he got big new products. >> thank you so much for being here. and it's time now for a cnbc news update. over to sue. >> hi, kelly. here's what's happening at this hour. the white house is, again, calling for tighter gun controls. this in the wake of today's shooting of a television news crew in virginia. the shooting is another example of gun violence that could have been mitigated by congressional action. one of the giant panda cubs at the smithsonian zoo has died. one of the cubs is fine. from angry birds to angry employees. finish company that created the video game is planning to eliminate more than 1/3 of its staff. says it's restructuring and will concentrate activities on games, media and consumer products. >> president obama welcoming the wnba champion phoenix muercury o the white house. the three-time, wnba champs. also recognized the team for the service in the phoenix community. and that is your cnbc news update, kel, back to you. >> thank you very much, sue. tech leading a monster rally today. we'll look at the leaders in this move and see where that sector's going next. cnbc, first in business worldwide. can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver? you know your denture can look but, when you eat tough food, the denture moves. oh no! this shouldn't happen. try fixodent plus adhesives. their superior hold helps your denture work more like natural teeth. and you can eat even tough food. fixodent. strong more like natural teeth. fixodent and forget it. welcome back. in case you somehow missed it, here's a look at how we missed the day on wall street. the dow adding 619 points. that's good enough for one of the best gains ever. in percentage terms, the best in four years, nearly 4% of the dow and the s&p, the nasdaq up 191, or 4. 25%, almost good enough to offset the 199 it gave up monday and tuesday. with these huge swings on wall street, we do have another cnbc special report at 7:00 p.m. eastern. join me, david faber, and jim cramer, it all starts at 7:00. now, in a day where the only predictable thing was the unpredictable. netflix, amazon and google were becoming the best sector of the day. joining us to try to sort out where the names go next is max wolf. max, 7% gains in the day, does that beget more gains? or less? >> thanks for having me. great to be here. always a pleasure. look, i think today's a little bit unusual. any time you see the nasdaq have a great day for the dow, you know you're in uncharted territories. and this is a bounce off a huge selloff and a big disappointment yesterday. that being said, i think there's real relative value discovery process here. for us, we look closely at who did well today and who did badly and led the charge down. we've got some guys leading the charge down more than up and up more than down. anyone who did twice the huge 4.25% rally in the nasdaq is worth looking at. that's names like netflix, google, amazon, bouncing way more than the overall market despite the record breaker. for the folks who managed not to do too well today are also worth taking note of. >> john? >> in particular, i think he's exactly right. one of the ones to watch. to john levin's point earlier, as well, is a stock like apple that's got its dividend covered that's going to have a new product introduction in september. this is a stock for some reason on that flash dump on monday traded down to $92 a share. none of us could've bought it there really because that was a panic bottom. you could have bought it at around 100. and now look at where it is. it's $9 higher than that. i think it goes significantly higher into the september launch. >> carol? >> i -- john and i were talking about this a little bit offline. and seems like there are a lot of people who are still on vacation, maybe working mobilely right now and they have only so many names that they are looking at on their mobile platforms. they can't really have a broad perspective of the market. so these favorite names, the names that a lot of the momentum investors are addicted to. it seems they may have gotten a benefit because they're the ones that are sort of top of mind for these investors. >> anything to add to that, max? >> yes, we have a sort of variant version of a similar idea. we think there's a lot of stop orders and also buy orders that are floating around. some of which might be a little bit older and that are coming into the money because folks are away or they're panicked or haven't updated what's floating around. and we have a sense that some of the smaller buying may be related to these things, wish list prices. some of which were probably hit today and some of that's not sophisticated buy side progressmatic. more kind of floating out entry points for apple and amazon. >> thank you, max. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. >> that's maxwell of manhattan venture partners. a disaster, that's what john burbank calls the lack of liquidity in the market these days. he weighs in on the recent market machinations next. want bladder leak underwear that moves like you do? try always discreet underwear and move, groove, wiggle, giggle, swerve, curve. lift, shift, ride, glide, hit your stride. only always discreet underwear has soft dual leak guard barriers to help stop leaks where they happen most and a discreet fit that hugs your curves, you barely feel it. always discreet underwear so bladder leaks can feel like no big deal. because hey, pee happens. get your free pair and valuable coupons at always discreet.com welcome back. 619 points. that was the gain in the dow jones industrial average today. 4% higher, the swings. we will have more on a market special for you 7:00 p.m. tonight. individual investors wither not the only ones rocked by this week's investors. one of the best performers this year. through july, passport capital's special opportunity fund is up 29%. how are they navigating today's market moves? our own kate kelly joins us right now with an exclusive interview with john burbank from passport capital. kate? >> thanks so much. john, thank you so much for joining us in beautiful san francisco. congrats on the performance. before we talk about what you guys have done throughout the year, though, can you talk about the last few days in the markets? today seems like a good indication. has that been the case for passport? and how are you approaching this turmoil? >> i say for us, we have been expecting a market breakdown for some time in the broader indices. what's remarkable is how commodities have traded and emerging markets have traded the last couple of years and yet the faith in the u.s. economy has been so high. and the faith in the fed hiking rates has been so high. it really propped up, i'd say, the dollar in u.s. markets. even though earnings peaked last september and have been declining since. we think this was a bounce, reflexive bounce, but we don't see why this is going to end right now. >> interesting. so speaking of the u.s. dollar, you've been on record saying that it topped out this past spring. do you still believe that? and what's your near term outlook for the dollar? are you bullish, at least, compared to emerging market currencies, for instance? do you have any sort of notable currency trades on right now? or are you staying away? >> we just observed that the dollar topped out temporarily mid march when the fed backed off from hiking rates sooner. i'd say the dixie just hit the 200-day moving average the last couple of days. euro went up to 117. if anything, the great risk the dollar resumes rising and goes to new highs. emerging market currencies keep breaking down. i'd say the emerging markets are a great risk of ongoing liquidation almost like in 1998 given the way things are trading. >> john, how were you guys -- >> go ahead. go ahead. >> well, we observe. the unilateral qe at the end of '08, '09, into last year. it's really what's at work here. you know, wlerned and i learned what qe can do if you keep doing more and more of it and keeping the dollar weak. what we're learning in the last year is what happens when credit conditions tighten and the dollar rises. this is what's producing commodities lower, emerging markets lower as well as this big separation in dispersion across markets. >> john, if you don't mind, could you be specific about how you managed the 29% gain through july? and if you're still up that much? >> sure. >> are you specifically shorting parts of the commodities market and companies exposed to that? >> yes. so, yes. there are qe enabled many companies and emerging market countries to get a lot of credit cheaply they never should've gotten. dodd/frank tightens credit conditions here. liquidy is not very good. all we're seeing now is price validating and showing you the way things really are. of i don't see any reason this is going to stop. you have to have machination as to how low the oil price can go. emerging market stocks can go. we've been able to run a very tight, long strategy this year, really in the last year. believing that the dollar was going to keep rising. and so we've stayed short and it's really benefitted us this year. >> i want to get back to your point about liquidity in a second. but really quickly, two sectors to ask you about. on the mining side, i understand you've had a short view of that. i wonder if you could elaborate on that a little bit and tell us about glencore which has been an area of focus according to filings. secondly, too, how about chinese internet stocks? where do you stand at the moment? >> good questions, although they both seem to hinge on china. glen core has a tremendous amount of debt. they're levered to base metals including copper, which keep falling. we believe is now becoming understood better. although, really, it's not a very shorted company. mining does not have a lot of upside, we think. although, it's very different in the way it's traded in the last 6, 7 years. it's the consumption part of china that keeps growing, but the sentiment is terrible and close to bottoming in my opinion. it could bottom in the next 1 to 2 months. >> last question before we let you go, then, sounds like for everybody trying to figure out the direction of the u.s. stock market here, they're looking to china. you seem to be saying, they shouldn't be looking to china's market so much as maybe just watching, quite simply, the u.s. dollar. that further dollar rallies will be a head wind. is that right? >> absolutely. so if the fed really wants to hike rates, it knows it should have hiked rates. doing it now, i think, is irresponsible. but it very may well do it. i think we're late cycle in the u.s. if they actually do hike, the dollar's going to rise. the dollar rises, i think, it's risk off. >> thank you for sharing your perspective. really appreciate it. john burbank with our own kate kelly. ten minutes to go. it's almost like i think it's 3:00 always now. new york fed president william dudley says today he sees a september rate hike as less compelling. but our panelist is saying a lot more about the fed in an op-ed piece and it is compelling. and after wild day in the market, we'll get you ready for tomorrow's trading. coming up on the "closing bell." keep it right here. omy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. welcome back. central bank leaders are meeting this week in jackson hole. a september rate hike looms over the wyoming resort. carol roth writing on cnbc.com today says it's time for the fed to come clean on rates. carol, what do you mean by that? >> i think that the fed needs to basically take the entire idea of a rate hike this year off the table. i am not a fan of the fed, as you know. i don't think that they should have intervened. i think if they were going to raise rates they should have done it a long time ago and they missed their window. and i think now they really can't raise rates. i know we like to do this little cat and mouse game and pretend there is a rate hike that's possible. but from a risk-reward standpoint it is very risky for them to be too early. much more so for them to be too late. so i think that given everything that's going on in the world, the fact that this commodity bubble has basically popped earlier than anybody expected, the fact that we've got a strong dollar, we've got chaos in emerging markets, and from the confidence of the u.s. consumer seeing the stock market go all over the place because people aren't sure, investors aren't sure what the fed is doing, doesn't help. so let's just come clean, say that you're not going to do it this year because you are not going to do it this year. >> but what if they do it -- i take your point about whether or not it's a good idea. but what, dr. j, happens if this fed -- is they've kind of told us just wants to do it. >> you're right. they do just want to do it seemingly. no matter what mr. dudley says, they do want to do it. however, i do agree with carol 100%. they missed their window. if they do it now, it's just a bad time to do it now. in other words, to do it just for the sake of doing it, we all know they want to create a little distance between zero and perhaps half a point or one point so they have room for cuts if indeed they have to do that. but because you missed your window doesn't mean you that do it just because you wanted to do it and you missed your opportunity. >> their hands are tied basically at this point. >> it would be taking a victory lap. that's how many have put it. there's much more on cnbc.com. carol, thank you. another day. it started off on a positive note. but unlike yesterday, it actually ended on one and then some. does it mean investor confidence is back? 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(different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. welcome back. let's get some final thoughts on our panel after today's rollicking session. what are we watching in terms of where this market goes from here? >> i think you want to watch both volatility and volume. those two vs you want to watch tomorrow. because if we get volatility ebbing again, easing back down, and you have volume -- again, today's volume was almost 200% of normal here on the new york stock exchange. if you get 150% or 120% tomorrow, still a positive sign. if you get light volume and we trade up tomorrow, i'm worried. >> carol? >> i'm actually looking at tiffany tomorrow. not so much about their earnings but what they're projecting going forward. because to me that is one of those names that really speaks to what is going on with china, both overseas and the tourist dollars potentially coming into the united states. so i want to see where they're going to guide estimates. and i think that that's a good gauge on how much concern there is from a company that is really deep into the china story and where that might go. >> earningswise, john? >> well, i agree, of course, with tiffany. i think that one's going to be interesting. but i'm also kind of going to be interested to see which stocks people now pick after the big washout that has occurred over the last several sessions. monday i told you what my list was. i'm sure there are a host of other lists. what carol and i were talking about earlier was that when people are on the beach, you know, with one of these you don't have the same numbers of stocks that you're watching on your iphone or samsung or whatever you're watching it with, so that's going to be key. which are the other stocks that people are starting to buy and/or sell on those lists depending on where they view them versus the market. >> and then of course, carol will also get the federal reserve, the jackson hole meeting -- >> and jobs. >> and jobs. of course. and big news on tap still for this market to digest. thank you so much for joining me today. appreciate it. reporting earnings after the bell today. ceo manny chirico joins our own jim cramer on "mad money" tonight. in just about an hour's time. exclusively at 6:00 p.m. eastern. and we've got another cnbc special report tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. we'll discuss whether this huge rally is an all-clear sign for stocks. join me, jim cramer, and david faber at 7:00 live on cnbc. that does it for us on "closing bell." let's send it out to the gang over there at "fast money." melissa lee. straight over to you guys. >> thank you, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite i'm melissa lee. breaking news tonight. stocks surging into the close ending just about at the highs of the session. rebounding from six consecutive days of declines. both the dow and the s&p posting their biggest percentage gains in more than four years. the dow ending the day up 619 points. so tonight we ask a very simple question. did we just get the all-clear to get back into stocks? guy adami, what do you say? >> i wasn't here last night. and if i had been here last night i would have said yesterday's price action was the worst of the last two weeks and there's a good probability that today we blow through the 1820 level on the down side. i would have been 100% wrong. with that said, is it

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