>> thanks, simon. we begin this hour with trading troubles in the market. the three big areas we're focusing on macro, fundamental and technical, and dominic chu will lay out the bull and bear case for each. dom? >> there's strong and there's a lot of them on both sides of the equation. >> sure. >> let's talk about the macro bigger picture scale first. first of all, you have at least what's perceived to be some economic strength or resiliency. maybe not robust growth. still, in the eurozone and the u.s., yes, i know the eurozone is stepied at best and may be slipping back to recession but it's holding in there and the u.s. holding it better than most economies out there. that's kind of the bullish case if you want to see it that way. take a look at china though. slowing growth there. growing faster than any of us out here, but, still, that slowing growth may be a huge case for the downside of china's economic woes really deepen as the market it your miles condition. let's take a look at what's happening with the overall numberal case of things. stocks in the u.s. are doing okay because what you have if profits come in line, the rest of the way this earnings season. we'll actually see north of 1% profit growth in the s&p 5 up. it's not a lot but still profit growth so some of the bulls are hanging their hat there. on negative side of things, revenues, top line growth. still expected to come, down 3.5%. that's a reason why some of the bears are saying this is not a recovery that can be sustained. take a look at some of the charts, technical side of things, check this out. the dow transports. we know they have been weak, all right, but just on the right-hand side, maybe trying to find some stabilization. we're hovering right around the down 10% mark that marks a correction and if transports can hold maybe that's bullish. one more thing to watch here, of course, guys, the idea that crude oil really is and has been a train wreck for a while. look at crude oil, down. maybe no support in sight and still, some of the bull/bear cases, just a ton of them but a handful. >> thanks very much, dom. who is right, the bulls or bears? listening to that and joining us now. jerry, you are the bull here. importantly you're also an apple stockholder. let me just get your take on apple with it down so heavily today. >> yeah. i mean, we think apple is a great long-term hold here. we're not buying it today. there's a lot of good opportunities and technology that we are buying, but it fits in the larger framework of where we think the overall economy and stock market is which is that things aren't horrible, so you don't run out and sell things just because they break their 200-day. you look at the underlying fundamentals of the economy and that's a strong case. look out to 2016 globally, particularly in the developed economies, and you have a powerful underlying driver for, and that's why we still think this is a great market to be invested in, and people should be looking all the time. >> so jerry, if that's the case, why aren't you doubling down? why wouldn't you be buying more apple here if you are a true bull? >> right now we're buying nxpi and red hat. next month it could be apple >> i get it. >> so we have lots of names. >> it's just a question of what happens the best value at a given time. >> exactly. >> nick, you're the bear in the argument. what is your chief and overriding concern that you have? >> the biggest concern we have, simon, such a disconnect between where fixed income markets think the fed will raise rates and when and what equity markets believe. they discount a zero percent chance of a move and other participants think the economy is strong enough to take that in september. we're worried about the miscommunication and expectations against the backdrop of high valuations and low earnings growth and the vix which is now at the lower end of its annual band. >> so your fundamental concern would be that you'll get a disconnect if theyration rates? that's the point at which you believe something unpleasant could happen. >> we believe basically equity market investors feel the economy is it strong enough to raise rates and that's been a lot of guidance we don't see it happening nor does the fixed income market and that concerns us. >> if they hold off on raising rates, isn't that basically an easing of policy? wouldn't that be and ushls always is positive for the stocks? >> it should be, but at the same time we're worried that the liftoff is a signal of a good economy, a better economy and if markets worry that the fed doesn't see that coming through, you need to bring earnings down. >> jerry, as a bull, what's your main counter argument? >> a good portion of this corrective phase is behind us, right? we just talked about energy, materials, some of the basic industries all in corrective mode for six months now. you've now taken a big chunk of the non-durables and the technology names down. that corrective phase has been working through the -- through the overall market. what's exciting to us here, people have been selling stocks. people are anxious. this big fed rate rise is still on the horizon. those are all things that have held the market back. what's exciting to us is we're going to resolve those things and we think likely to the upside with the ism and other forward-pointing economic indicators telling us that this is about to happen, and you'll see a big move, we think, back into stocks because the 2016 earnings estimates suggest that these are very attractive entry points, even at a little bit higher interest rate so that's a freight place to start. >> interesting. we have to leave it there. joey castellii and nicoll off, thanks so much. you see crude oil generally bouncing back and present back above $50 right now. where is oil support and where is oil headed? jinx us is peter amandio from chicago energies who joins us from the merc. have we bottomed here? >> i don't think so much. for the short term correct up to 47, you get to there and have a level of 49.5 and a very big top around $54. now, we fell $12 very quickly, but if you look at the fundamental side of things and you see iran coming online soon and you also see the slowing down with china, everything looks to be pointing south. now, you had a contributor say there may not be any numbers there, but there is. $42 is a very big level, and we could -- if we do go through those levels you could see the low 30s. now, back at the end of 2008, beginning of 2009, soak seven, eight months to do it but fell from 148 to the low 30s. could we do it from these levels? >> certainly. >> that was at the height of the financial crisis. why would we do that now? >> well, raising rates could actually do it, but the whole fundamental situation looks very dire in terms of the price of crude oil and that's why i think it could do it now, plus, with a strong dollar. >> amandio joining us from chicago energies at the new york merc. tyler, back to you. >> thanks very much. this, like so many days lately, a big day for earnings, and let's check out the scorecard. 78% of the s&p 500 have reported so far and 71% of those that have reported have beaten the street's estimates. 8% have been right on button and 21% have come in below expectations. we'll cover it all right now with diana olick and mary thompson on etsy and julia boorstin on disney and diana, you go first. >> reporter: zillow had a rough first quarter and the second is not expected to be much better. the consensus forecast is for a loss of 26 cents a share on revenues of 169 million compared to five cents a share for same quarter one year ago. this will be the second quarter that zillow's earnings will reflect its acquisition of trulia which was its former rival. it made zillow the number one information website, number two being realtor.com and it's fast gaining market share. the positives, new product launches for the iphone and ipad and the ceo will likely face questions about the company's agreement to acquire dot loop and a rumored sale of a market leader and software company that zillow inherited with trulia. we're looking for this out at 4:30 today. >> etsy, mary thompson, reporting after the bell. what's in store? >> investors are watching this very closely because it will be the time that the company reported going public earlier this spring, and the shares have fallen since that time. hit a high of about $35, but right now trading right around 19 so this is what analysts are looking for. they are looking for the company to record a loss of 8 cents a share on $59.5 million. what are some things analysts will be watching? they are keen on revenue growth at the company which has been decelerating. last quarter revenue growth was 44.4% so they want to see a reacceleration of the revenue on website. they will be listening for any updates on amazon which plans to lauren a competitor a etsy where people can seld their homemade goods on amazon and also any impact from the dollar that the company said women pact its results in the past quarter and any update on marketing expenses. specifically they will be looking, too, as to whether or not the company is going to add some seller services which has been an additional source of revenue for the company. >> stock moving lower at this hour so we'll see later today. >> and disney, which has been the best growing stock of the year in the dow so far. reports later today so what's happened at the house of the mouse? >> reporter: well, tyler, it's expected to continue its winning streak and has sent the stock to an all-time high and investors are watching for the impact of foreign exchange rates in three care areas, networks and there will be questions about over the top espn service that bob iger first discussed on air. and shanghai disney, launch date and they will take a write-down on "tomorrowland's" disappointment and we're always curious for updates on "star wars" which is expected to boost the studio and the product. analysts raising price targets for disney on projections that "star wars" will gross $2.2 billion worldwide. tyler, certainly a fun one to watch. >> julia, matter and diana, thanks all very much. simon, down to you? and that disney chart of great beauty. apple in correction territory and s&p 500 closer to its 50-day moving average and brent oil trying to stay above its key $50 level. how to trade now? the technical damage in the markets. plus, the wildfires out west ravaging california. more than 20 active fires. the very latest next on cnbc. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. hi. hi. hi. hello. hi. hi. hi. hi my name's josh. kelly. my name is raph. steve. my name is anne. tom. brian. krystal. and i am definitely not a robot. i'm one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. whether it's for your business or your personal life, don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up. because we're here. we're here, we're here, and we've got your back. legalzoom. legal help is here. nbut your dell 2-in-1 laptoped gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. but with all this speed from xfinity, it's all good. hey, why don't we do some homework for a change? 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[laughs] lovin' the new design! konichiwa hirosan. five minutes... all this speed is very empowering. check out the new hardware. with the fastest, most reliable in-home wifi, xfinity is perfect for people who need to get a lot donehome. everyone is looking for ways while to cut expenses.s unique, and that's where pg&e's online business energy checkup tool can really help. you can use it to track your actual energy use. find rebates that make equipment upgrades more affordable. even develop a customized energy plan for your company. think of it as a way to take more control over your operating costs. and yet another energy saving opportunity from pg&e. find new ways to save energy and money with pg&e's business energy check-up. massive wildfires still burning out of control throughout much of northern california. biggest just north of sacramento, burning 135,000 acres so far. on the fryer, it's joe fryar. >> reporter: rocky fire in northern california has burned 100 square miles, an area twice the size of sacramento. we've just learned 65,000 acres have burned here in the fire and just 12% contained. late monday a major development when flames jumped over a highway which had been containing the fire on the north end. that created several new spot fires which were attacked by air tankers and helicopters, but the fire is now moving through new territory with lots of dry land that's ready to burn. 2,500 fire fighters are on the ground here. around 7,000 structures are threatened and many of those are homes and 13,000 people remain evacuated. right now across california more than 20 large wildfires are burning with no relief in sight. >> joe fryer in california. meanwhile, coach beating profit estimates. revenue also coming in ahead of forecasts. that's despite an eighth straight quarter of falling sales of handbags and other accessories. cvs health beating the street. however, the pharmacy giant narrowing its full-year guidance and the earning forecast is pleau what analysts were expecting. meanwhile, sprint reporting a narrower than expected loss. earnings coming in below forecast and it is raising its outlook for the full year. >> thank you. to the presidential race we go and it appears democratic candidate hillary clinton is losing ground with one key slice of the electorate. our chief washington correspondent john harwood with the latest "wall street journal"/nbc new poll. hi, john. >> reporter: hey, tyler. you know, hillary clinton's unfavorable ratings are rights and that's a significant thing. she's at a net negative by 11 percentage points, 37% of the american people view her positively and 48% negatively but most of the focus this week is on the republican debate in cleveland and the prospects for those individual republican candidates, but what do we know about the overall republican prospects heading into the 2016 race? our nbc/"wall street journal" poll gives us some answers, bad news, good news situation. first of all, let's look at the weaker republican brand. when you ask the american people overall they are split on the democrats, not too excited, 38-38 and decidedly negative on the the republican party. secondly, if you look at a measure of people want the government to do more more or less or less, democrats hold a narrow edge 50-46 and then step back and look at change factor. when you ask people do you want a president with a similar approach to president obama or a different approach, lob sided 2-1. they want a different approach from president obama and that's an edge for republicans heading into the 2016 campaign and finally on the the key issues. democrats have an advantage 15 percentage points on who is looking out for the middle class but on the two big ones, the economy, handling the economy and handling foreign policy republicans both have an edge outside of the poll's margin of error so that's the backdrop, simon, heading into this republican debate on thursday. a mixed picture for both parties. the american public gloomy overall. >> a fascinating watch on thursday. john, thank you very much. major airlines in this country taking a big step in the shipment of big game trophies after the illegal killing of cecil the lion in zimbabwes and it's getting more and more common to see pets on a plane but now it's gone to a whole new level. you won't believe the types of exotic animals now in the cabin with passengers with scales and tails and they are allowed on board. we live in a world of mobile technology, but it is not the device that is mobile, it is you. real madrid have about 450 million fans. we're trying to give them all the feeling of being at the stadium. the microsoft cloud gives us the scalability to communicate exactly the content that people want to see. it will help people connect to their passion of living real madrid. some of the biggest u.s. airlines are banning the shipment of big game trophies on flights after the illegal killing of cecil the lion in zimbabwe. robert frank is here with the latest. who is doing this, and what can we expect to do that? >> almost all of the airlines. the public outrage over cecil the lion is spilling over into business. three u.s. airlines said they no longer allow hunters to bring big game trophies on their flights, american airlines, delta and united saying they will not allow hunters to bring aboard buffalo, elephant, lion, leopard or rino trophies joining air france, klm, singapore and other global airlines that have imposed bans. emirates airlines banned hunting trophies back in may. delta which has the largest number of direct flights to africa was one of the holdouts even before cecil. animal rights activists sent a petition to delta with over 50,000 signatures. in a statement delta said prior to the ban the strict acceptance policy called for absolute compliance with all government regulations regarding protected species and they will review other policies with other agencies supporting legal shipments. an estimated 15,000 american hunters head to africa every year for trophy hunts. they kill and take home more than 500 lions. many trophies are sent by ship, tyler, so we'll see whether this spills over into the shipping companies. we'll see what dhl, fedex and all the other transport companies do. >> that was my immediate thoughts. if the airlines aren't going to do it, a container company, a shipping company, an air express company just might. we'll see. robert, thank you. >> thank you. >> simon. >> meantime, tyler, getting more and more common to see live pets on a plane, and we're not just talking dogs or cats but exotic animals like this kangaroo, and these animals are in the cabin with the rest of the passengers. bonnie copenhagen of our affiliate wmaq in chicago has been working on this story. how is this possible? welcome to the program. >> thanks for having me. it's quite easy. an emotional support animal can be anything, a dog, a cat, hamster, roost ter, kangaroo, you name it. it's anything but a snake and different from a service dog because a service dog is trained and a service dog is also protected by the american with disabilities act, so, yes, basically you can't get into a restaurant with an esa animals but can get into two areas. a landlord requires you to bring your esa airlines into your apartment and airlines because of the air carrier access act they are required to allow animals on a plane which is why you're seeing kangaroos and roosters, parakeets and everything. >> you have to have the letter presumably from your doctor. you tried to get one of these letters. how did you get on and what animal did you say you needed to take with you on the flight? >> it was quite easy. i just went online and answered a few questions. basically asked me my stress level, if i, you know, sleepless nights, morals like that. it was quite easy. i answered two questions. eight minutes later i was done. paid $149 and three days later i got a letter from an accredited mental health professional that said i need an emotional support animal. never had to declare what my animal was, never, you know, said anything more than i just needed an esa so we put it to the test. i took a round trip flight to minneapolis and back, and i have a 70-pound lab. didn't need to put her in a carrier, brought her on the plane but to just kind of test the waters a little bit, test the boundaries we decided to bring a 15-pound tortoise with us as well, just to see if anybody would question us. >> and did they? >> and nobody did. >> nobody did. >> good to meet you, thanks for a fascinating story. courtney copenhagen joining us from our sister station wmaq. you would sthink the stewardess would say the kangaroo needs a seat. >> i don't know about you, i never travel without my tortoise. >> i leave mine at home. >> you do. >> yes. >> back to the numbers we go. metals trade right now and there you see gold moving a little bit higher by a buck at $1,090. not a very pleasant year so far for gold to put it mildly. silver up about four cents and copper up about a penny and palladium down sharply there, as you see, by about 1.25% and platinum down again by about 1%. to the bond market we go and rick santelli who never travels without his tortoise. rick? >> oh, boy. i hope nobody has a pet skunk. listen, when i look at ten-year note yields the first thing that jumps out at me is we closed below and lower than the yield we set at last year, higher price, will they last? look at a one-day and two-day chart of tense which gives you perspective and the chart is starting at the end of may considering the 29th was the last time we were down at those levels, very important and these are very significant areas. was it a one off or are we consolidating here? many think the latter. we will see. let's look at another twist on high yield. let's look at the etf hyg, a four-year chart, bumping along levels we haven't seen in a while. all of this is correlating to the last dynamics. the last chart, if the dollar index was more to the upside i would say that the down yield up price in the long end may be regulated and it's all trading with the dollar index which underscores that the flattening curve might be a growth issue on the long end. simon, back to you. >> thanks very much, rick. biggest stock of them all, apple, in correction territory. the stock down more than 10% from its recent high and below its 200-day moving average and the s&p sitting at its 50-day moving average and brent oil fighting to stay above its key $50 level. how to trade the technical damage next on cnbc. plus, the 401(k) changed the american retirement landscape. why the college 529 savings plan may be about to be the next hot employee benefit. no student's ever photographed mean ms. colegrove. but your dell 2-in-1 laptop gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. so i'm always looking kito get more fore. my money. that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. they have the most free on demand tv shows and movies on all my devices. it's perfect for me because my kids are costing me a fortune. i'm going to cabo! [ music plays ] don't settle for u-verse. xfinity is perfect for people who want more entertainment for their money. hello, everyone. i'm sue herera and here is your cnbc news update for this hour. swiss custom authorities seizing over 500 pounds of ivory after searching the belongings of three chinese men who arrived on a night from tanzania. the tusks had been sawed into pieces along with lions' teeth and claws in order to fit into eight suitcases. new jersey governor chris christie holding a town hall this morning at a new hampshire diner. he says he plans on being one of the ten gop presidential candidates to make the cut for thursday's debate. christie is vying for one of the final spots. big truck fire shut down the new jersey turnpike. traffic is still at a stop in both directions near 13a in lyndon. that's the exit number. the accident happened this morning in the southbound lanes. no word on injuries, but that has created a commuting nightmare. police say a woman gave birth to a healthy baby girl at the world trade center train station early this morning. that's a picture of officer brian mcgraw who delivered the six pound 14 ounce girl. it is the first baby born at the world trade center since 9/11. and that is his second delivery on duty. so, i guess that was a very lucky thing. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, ty. >> that's like lightning striking twice in a good way. >> it is, and she was actually on her way to the hospital and taking a train and transferring at the world trade center station and she felt like it was a little bit too close for comfort and he delivered the baby. >> if the police thing doesn't work out for him, he's got a second job as a mid-wife. >> he does, absolutely. a good story. >> let's go to dom for a market flash. >> what a great story, guys. we're also watching shares of netflix up by about 8% in today's trade so far and a huge bull note. gunk heim analysts are initiating the stock as a pry with a price target of $160 a share. that would be the highest price target out there on the street as tracked by faxon. the analysts there are saying netflix has room to grow globally and the company increases its reasonable offerings. netflix on a tear since the beginning of this year, up, yes, not 148%, staggering, and back over to you. >> consumer spending getting strong and growth forecasts getting a little bit more optimistic and these are some of the metrics the fed will look at trying to decide when and whether to raise interest rates. so are we on track to raise rates in september? our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins me with his take. i thought i heard you say yesterday it was probably a little less than 50% chance. >> i'm above 50%. but how about some good news? could you possibly stand it? >> tell me some good news. >> very early, folks, early read on the third-quarter data is that we're on track with a rebound from that anemic first quarter and may even exceed the fed's lowered expectation for growth this year. that could be bringing us closer to that fall rate hike. here's the cnbc wrap it up date. last quarter 2.3 revised up twice because of better construction spending and better factory orders and now at 2.9, 2.3 to 3.1. the third quarter, we just got the auto sales. that's the first number we use for our tracking survey coming in again at 2.9 with a range of 1.9 to 3%. who is your favorite economist? here's where the people who submitting to our survey. action economics and deutschebank and immediate's, mark zandi and hfe at 2.5% and morgan stanley still pretty pessimistic at 1.9%. very early days with the strong auto numbers reported so far but some economists see them as a early positive sign for the consumer and the revisions have been in the right direction. take a look at first chart and what you see the first quarter originally reported minus 0.7. there's the first quarter there. there's the first reported number on the second quarter, 2.3 and now 2.1 and there's the first look at the third quarter. now take a look at where the fed is. they have revised down their forecasts for 2015. they are just looking for 1.9%, and yellin said if the data hold up the way they think then the economy is ready for a rate hike. if q22 marches higher it would seem to set the stage for the september rate hike. those are a couple of big fs. the big job reports this week and retail sales next thursday could prompt a policy rethink yet again. >> steve, thanks. >> second day of trading in august, dow steady. nothing moves on the floor without catching the eye of bob pisani. what's happening? >> we see a mixed market and mixed results in tech. look at some of the suppliers, skyworks, 5% declear, cirrus, vishay and avago. semiconductors under pressure for a wheel, semiconductor etf. really for last six, eight weeks we've been under pressure and that's the time apple has been under pressure. apple started rolling really over about late in june, mid-june you can see there, a little bit of a rally at the beginning of the month. there's been a correlation. people ask if technicals matter. when apple pierces the 200-day moving average around 1:00 eastern time, you put up a two-day of apple, saw that drop in the middle. day on huge volume so somebody obviously set off sell stops when it got near that 200-day moving average. builders are the other weak group and they had a decent earnings report and a bit of a disappointment on whether or not they had as many closings as expected. the weather prevented a lot of closings in texas, simon and even though the other numbers were good, they had the highest prices they have ever had before. they have taken advantage of the home builders here today. >> the weather was terrible. >> it was terrible, but normally closings is not a problem. you're going to close the place and you just put off the date but apparently this was an issue for a lot of people. >> and my buyer as well. sales are good though. sales have been excellent. >> meantime, clearly people are getting nervous about the market and legendary trader laszlo birinyi was on halftime explaining why now is not the time to leave the market. >> most people don't realize we're in the second greater s&p rally in history and we're actually ahead of the 1990 rally, and if the market continues to gain 11 basis points a day as it has for the last six years, two years out or so we're going to be over 3000. >> is laszlo birinyi right? joining us now is a chief investment strategist at johnny montgomery and rick weis at american century investments. rich, do you have sympathy with that very bullish sentiment? >> no, i can't say we do. he may be right but i think he's five years late on that one. fundamentally, economically, everyone is hard put to see real economic growth in the u.s. past 2.5, maybe 2% at best, sub par. corporate profits are dismal at 1%, 2%. the second quarter surprises notwithstanding. few, if any, surprises on the top lines sales surprises and the valuation metrics are nowhere near they were as compelling five years ago. the prospect of higher interest rates from the fed, we just cannot see another 50% increase in stocks from here. unprecedented returns over the last five, six years coming out of recession and bear market, but we are much less optimistic for the next year or two. >> mark, could you lift our mood here? >> i wish i could, but the factsy agree with rich. i think it's a little ambitious to put a price target of 3200, 50% where we are today within two years. extend that out to five to ten years, it's more plausible but i don't see it coming through earnings growth not with the economic trajectory we're experiencing at the moment or a more ambitious market. >> what is the expectation of the market, up or down? >> more sideways and i think we're likely to see more of the same. there's divergences that need to be reconciled. you see the number of stocks that are falling above their trend lines suggests that there's a dichotomy in the market, the broader market, looking at the nyse broader market, the index is below its 22 hundred-day moving average is not indicative of what we're seeing take place in the s&p 500. >> we're running out of time. rich, what will work now? what will protect my wealth? >> well, you'll have to move from riding the bull market train, the beta train to looking for alpha, so strategies like alternatives, multi-strategy approach, shorting stocks, disciplined equity strategies, multi-asset or global macro strategies. got to get the short side. >> rich, mark, we have to leave it there. we have breaking news with steve liesman. >> simon, thanks very much. atlanta lockhart president saying there's a high bar right now to not acting in september. he says the economy is ready for the first rate hike in nine years. he also says it will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead, and we were just talking about this that some of the economic data has gotten better, has met and in some cases exceeded the fed's own forecast for growth in 2015 with the jobs report being very significant, but right now dennis lockhart, a guy you watch, very much a centrist, neither a dove nor a hawk, somebody we follow to see which way the fed winds are blowing, and they seem to be blowing towards that september rate hike. tyler? >> what does the market say about this? >> we've been around 40%, 50% for that september rate hike or more -- more -- and higher for december. depends on how you read it, but it's been out there a little bit under 50%, tyler. >> a little bit under 50%. a curious choice of language, that it's a high bar to not act. that's sort of an inside-out waive saying it's a low bar to act, i guess. >> it is, but i think what he's saying is where the -- the litmus test is. in this case he's inclined to act but is -- would have to be dissuaded from not acting and that's really where -- i really read janet yellen, not quite so strong, but she said very much the same thing at her testimony in congress a few weeks ago where she said that she thinks the economy both needs and can tolerate higher rates if the forecast comes out which is why i'm so focused on where the gdp numbers are coming in. are they meeting, exceeding or falling below what the fed's own forecast is? >> us a just pointed out a moment ago in your report. there's a couple of data points up in the next seven days starting with the jobs report friday and retail sales a week or so from now that are going to be really closely, closely watched. thanks. >> you bet. >> with music streaming services increasing into elbow radio's domain one might thing fm radio might be on the way out since most u.s. carriers and apple refuse to activate that hidden fm chip that is buried inside of almost every smartphone sold in the u.s., but now at&t is going old school in a big way with plans to activate fm chips in all of its android phones beginning next year. a look now at potential winners and losers from this terrestrial shift from barton crockette at fbr. barton, welcome, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> i'm curious, if you want to listen to your radio on your cell phone. >> you can. >> right. >> you need an app to do this. >> why would this in any sense be a game-changer? >> i'm not sure it is a game-changer from. a accomplishing safety perspective it could be, right, because you could listen to your fm radio if the cell phone towers were down or in an emergency but you're right. you can listen to all sorts of apps, i heart radio and all through the streaming mobile network and by having this as a chip is you don't blow up your cell phone data plan which might incent consumers to go that way as opposed to streaming and the cost of streaming is not certain that many people would care. it's a popular kind of feature in europe internationally, and i think the broadcasters are upset it's not even been allowed by the carriers in the u.s. >> are the carriers trying to protect their data plan revenues. is that why they have done that? >> hard to get away from that part of it as a conclusion. we still don't have noeps activated so there's a lot of room for battling and it may be much ado at the end of the day. there's 200 people who listen two years a day but there's lots of growth. sirius xm, adding 2 million subscribers and spotify very strong globally. people moving away from a.m./fm. >> i'm probably not the target here but i have spotify and pandora and sirius in my cars and i still listen to fm radiomore than any other. thanks so much for being with us from my hometown of arlington, virginia. simon? >> three different flights in three days have had close encounters with drones at new york's airport. pilots and passengers astopped n netherlands as a bridge collapsed. we'll bring you that when we return. be right there with you, helping with the questions you need answered to get your brand new business started. we're legalzoom and we've already partnered with over a million new business owners to do just that. check us out today to see how you can become one of them. legalzoom. legal help is here. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent. ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. nbut your dell 2-in-1 laptoped gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. watch this. look at that. a crane, it's holland. holland cranes doing some bridge work, someone miscalculated, you would say. yeah, you think? came crashing down on four homes across the water. 20 people injured in this mishap there in the netherlands. simon. >> that's what happens when you build everything on water, i guess. >> look at, that crazy. >> aig reporting despite reporting earnings above estimation and buying back 5 billion more of its own stock and michael amend is executive vice president for omni channel and mike robbins joins the retailer from rival target as senior vice president of the supply chain, and royal bank of scotland brought in $3.3 billion for the british government which continues to sell down the taxpayer's stake in that particular bank. ahead on the program there's a general belief that apple computers are less vulnerable to viruses and cyber attacks than pcs and mac users may not be as safe as they think they are. details of a wore egnew report on how you can protect yourself next. here at td ameritrade, they're always working. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. a sinkhole grows in all places brooklyn. at 8:001 this morning a busy intersection collapsed out in sunset park brooklyn causing major traffic headaches for hundreds of new yorkers. luckily no one is injured in that incident. you don't see that very often in downtown areas like this, let alone brooklyn. crews are on the scene now beginning to repair the damage but there are no indications yet what causes that collapse, and can you see all the underground damage there. >> sinkholes or bridges collapsing or fires. it's a terrifying show to be on our watching. >> kangaroos on airplanes. >> i know. didn't even have a seat. >> or a seat belt. as sue said, think what they said, reach into the pouch and pull out your life vest with that kangaroo. >> i'm going to go online and get a letter and bring a python. >> i like that tails and scales you had early. >> do like that ad lib and that from a pro. here are this hour's power points. atlanta fed says the economy is ready for a rate hike in september. that's according to "the wall street journal." material is the leading sector right now. utilities, the biggest lag-yard down 52 and a u.s. young rejecting a proposed class acts settledment between american express and merchants who sued the company over swiped fees ruling that a lawyer for the merchants compromised the fairness of that particular agreement. if you missed any of the big stories, collapsing cranes, sinkholes or pets in the aircraft go visit our site powerlunch.cnbc.com. let's send it over to dom chu for a quick market flash. >> shares of allstate sharply in the red, 10% to the downside after reporting weaker than expected profits after the close yesterday. now, it's the second worst performer on the entire s&p 500 today. the company reported earnings per share of 63 cents. estimates were for 97 cents. allstate citing an increase in severity and frequency of crashes and that's a reason given for earnings missed. tyler. >> tonight on cnbc a new original primetime series and looks very entertaining, "west texas investors club" featuring two self-made millionaires who invest their own money in entrepreneurs. "west texas investors club" tonight 10:00 p.m. eastern and pacific right here on cnbc. looks like a lot of fun. oil rebounding today, but take a look at a one-year chart. brent and wti down more than 50%ch the outlook for oil straight ahead. plus, would your employer match your college savings plan money, stuff you've got in your 529 in the hot new benefit that may change the way americans save for college. we'll tell you all about it when "power lunch" returns in two on cnbc, first in business worldwide. hello. i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. my technology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it. and automatically rebalance it. all without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. that may be hard to compute. but i'm a computer. so trust me. it computes. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com which go hour on top. coming up, apple taking a big bite out of stocks the last couple of days and now the company may have a new problem to worry about. plus, a reported increase in the number of car accidents. what's behind it and how can we stop it? and we wanted to have a good old-fashioned bull-bear debate on price line and the problem is there are no bears. if wall street loves it should you, too? tyler, back to you. >> saving for college is hard under any circumstance but some employers are now making it a little bit easier by matching employee contributions to 529 plans and two states are offering tax breaks to companies that do it. sharon epperson joins us with the details. this is an interesting wrinkle. tell me about the two states and tell me about whether the match is taxable or not. >> here you go. some are calling it landmark legislation, tyler. nevada passed a law in july giving employers a 25% tax credit on match contributions to 529 college savings plans. up to $500 per employee. the tax credit goes into effect as of january 1st, 2016. now currently fewer than 10% of firms offer a 529 plan as part of the employee benefits package and even fewer provide a match, that's according to strategic insight. so this legislation is an effort to encourage companies to offer 529 plans as a benefit and get more families to use them. now, nevada is the second state to give employers a tax break for matching contributions to 529 plans. illinois allowed employers to claim a tax credit since 2009, and since that time while the entire 529 savings plan industry increased accounts by 22%, illinois has increased by 45 has. here's how they work. states sponsor 529 college savings plan allowing your contributions to grow tax-free and the money can be withdrawn tax-free to pay for tuition fees, room and board and other higher education expenses if they qualify. most states will offer you a state tax deduction for your contributions. even though employers in illinois and soon nevada will get a tax break for matching your contributions you don't get a tax break. a company's matching couldn't buell abuse is actually considered taxable income on your return and that's one factor that may make some workers less willing to participate and still many college planning experts applaud states for encouraging companies to educate workers about 529 plans because, tyler, many people don't know what they are. >> even so, even though the money would be taxable to me. >> right. >> and just your matching contribution, that part. >> they put in $500, even if i have to pay tax on that i'm $300 ahead if i'm in a high bracket. >> that's the way you need to look at it as the glass half full. >> that will do it for first hour. simon, melissa, take it away. >> 2:00 p.m. on wall street and 1:00 p.m. in dubuque, iowa. brian sullivan is en route somewhere on the new jersey turnpike and he'll be joining us very shortly. begin today with a look at market. we see red arrows across the board. take a look at apple, this is a big part of the story, big part of all three of those indices, down big for the second day, firmly and down 10% from the highs set back in a.watching this very closely and we start here with oil which is rebounding today, down over 50%, as you know, over the last year. breen capital has a new note detailing which energy stocks are in trouble if oil prices stay in the $45 to $50 range for a sustained period. it includes key energy, right burn, ev energy, basic energy, all down more than 70% over the last year. on the cbs "newsline" is roberto freedlander head of energy trading. great to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> one of the biggest issues is asset-backed debt? >> three of the four names that you highlighted that we pointed out the other day as oil service names and bp and ep is reflecting at prices below a $1. they have high costs to get out of the ground. bas is continuing to struggle with the pressure pumping pricing and another with $1 billion amount of debt and it's a spinout of chesapeake so they will be linked to chesapeake with a variety of other problems in and of itself. key is facing the same problem as bas and ssc and they have equipment and are burning through cash and a ton of debt. it's a combination of a ton of debt and a lot of smaller service oil names will get squeezed by the bigger companies like halliburton and schlumberger. >> we've been low for quite a pier of time, is it that these guys dug in their heels and thought things would have turned by now, their reserves or what they own is less than the value they are written against? >> chesapeake, that's a ton of difference. there's a total of $16 billion in debt and rather through 1.5 billion of cash in the first half of 2015 and running out of cash quickly and some assets in the mid-continental area and could unlock some value but that will be a band-aid so the stock has, you know, certainly more room to move lower. a good chance you'll see $5 on chesapeake. >> wow, $5 on cheese peek. thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> back to the drop in apple stock. the stock trading off its lows for the session and down by just about 3% on the day. let's bring in brian blair for roens blatt securities. in terms of the move you've been seeing. you think it's because there are concerns about china's iphone sales. where did you fet it from. >> a piece comes from a lot of commentary last week when the china market saw the volatility that it did there was a lot of concern there could be shock waves on the consumer side but actually this week it's a little bit different. we're actually seeing a number of reports from the taiwanese supply chain where a lot of companies with talking about smartphone weakness in q3 and are guiding lower. one of them in synaptics and a lot of companies don't trade in the u.s. and are making smart comments and my view is a lot of weakness they are seeing is coming from samsung who is seeing lower -- we don't know but believe they are seeing lower orders in the supply chain from q2 to q3 and a number of the smartphone oems are seeing less inventory and because of the volatility in asia a number of investors are putting that back to a potential impact on apple. >> interesting that you mentioned the traders. but in terms of the china concerns, we're always getting reports about channel checks and them being weak, et cetera. are these ones that are you actually concerned about, brian? >> definitely worth focusing on because they are not speculative, companies coming out and reporting their monthly comments or giving their quarterly comments and they are just saying it. talking about smartphone weakness so it's different than a lot of the supply chain noise you might hear in the middle of a corridor. there's genuine things to point to. the china market has been volatile and uncertainty around the china consumer and samsung, really the number two player, have seen some weakness and they have talked about it. a lot of what we're seeing in apple i think is based on real data points but i still believe that this is an oversold situation here. >> yeah. >> it's a buy here. i still have a $140 price target and still believe it's a buy. we don't believe apple has changed their production. we don't believe the companies that supply into apple like cirrus logic who just had a great report with great guidance are seeing the weakness that other suppliers are seeing. got to leave it there. >> more trouble may be brewing for apple. a new vulnerability being exposed on mac computers that's so vicious that you likely have to throw out the laptop if it affects your device. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on. >> what a shocking form of this particular form of malware attacks the firmware that boots your computer and stuff, et cetera. that's the level at which a lot of anti-virus software don't work. >> correct. >> so even if you think you're protected you're not protected. >> the when you turn on the computer the first thing you boot up it's firmware and equally true of windows and macs, a layer called efi and the fact is if your computer gets infected with this problem it's very, very difficult to get rid of because it's very difficult to get rid of firmware. i've been on the phone with people at apple today. they have told me that this is -- first off, this is something that happens every year roughly around the time of the black hat, security researchers actually doing their jobs, probing and looking for possible vulnerabilities and disclosing them. there's thunder strike 2 which we talked about and another one, zero day, put the by a researcher. i've been on the phone with sources at apple that say both of these either have been fixed. one of the demos, the thunder strike is broken by ten apple os 10.10.4, the very latest one and in the process of working on a beta for 10.10.5 which fixes the other one. >> let's say you have a mac and not updiscriminating in terms of the operating system and what happens if you do get infected? what is that risk and when do you do to get uninfected in. >> it's very difficult to get infected, that's the one thing. >> oh, okay. >> these demonstrations are always done just for demonstration purposes, a good way for a security researcher to get attention to themselves because finding a mac vulnerability is actually kind of a cool thing. >> right. >> because it's rare, so it's kind of difficult to get these infections but be careful where you download software from. if you're downloading from apple's store, software store, you're probably going to be okay because apple is pretty careful about who they let in. >> you don't have to worry about throwing away your pc or computer. >> don't have to worry about throwing away your mac just let unless you're very, very loose and easy with, you know, installing software from less than reputable sources. >> okay. eric, thanks so much for separating fact from fiction on this worm. >> you're welcome. >> let's take a closer look at the broader markets and what the charts are telling us and get out to brian sullivan who is actually here. hey, bri. >> i am here. ari wald and katie stockton with btig. guys, let's hit the charts here. katie, your view on the broader market. i've got a fancy dandy help trader behind me if you need a chart but i know you come prepared what. are you seeing for the broader market? >> still bullish. if you look at the s&p 500 from a long-term perspective still in a long-term uptrend just like the rising 200-day moving effort and that's not only true for the s&p 500 and most major indices. the high composite has obviously seen a very nasty correction. i would argue that this tom brady range that we've seen over the past several months has been corrective in and of itself such that we've seen a lot of stocks get oversold on their charts. we've had the most widespread intermediate term oversold conditions that we've had since last november at that november and october low, so to me that's compelling, especially to the extent that we haven't seen a lot of breakdowns. >> i've been learning a lot from folks like yourself, katie, and ari as well. one things that concerns me when i look at the chart is the very last couple of months here, and forgive me i'm jittering from the highway. my drawing skills are not skilled. had a turndown and the last few months we've really gotten nowhere and it looks like the market has gotten fatigued. >> the market has gone nowhere but it's digested its gains and worked overbought conditions and importantly we're seeing reactions to oversold conditions when they do unfold so each pullback seems to be met with some buying interest, at least for the s&p 500 in particular, and that tends to occur right near support levels and that's what a healthy market should do. interestingly when you see the pullbacks sentiment tends to get very, very bearish. you can sense that, of course, this month amongst the people you speak to and that's also constructive and conducive to further gains and also a breakout for the s&p 500. >> there's the more bullish view area. i'm sure you have a different point of view as well. why are you more concerned about the market technically. >> i agree with katie longer term, our longer term work is bullish and near term we have concerns and adding it up teaguing a little bit of a market neutral stance here. as far as my market top i don't think this is a top. low oil is good for the market, the s&p 5 up, tends to coincide with secular bull market and argues strongly against a cycle top in the market. why we're a bit more concerned here tactically is that internal breadth is starting to weaken and we're starting to enter into a weak praerd period of the year for the s&p 500 and are setting up for a bull market correction. >> okay. >> the volume indicator, market hasn't gone anywhere but bigger volume on down days showing some signs that investors are more eager to sell than to buy. >> you've been doing this longer than i am and you are the expert but i'm going to push back a little bit. talked about it yesterday on the air where the last 0 trading days, something like 24 of those days, oil and the overall market went in the same direction. oil down and stocks down and oil up, stocks up. they have been almost perfectly correlated. why do you say lower oil is good when certainly in the short term it has not been? >> well, if you look at the last 60 years, brian, it tells you the exact opposite thing. if you look at secular bear markets in oil, 50s into the 60s, 80s into the 90s, these coincided with secular bull markets in the s&p 500. you've got to take that long-term big picture view here, correlated maybe over the last 30 days but longer term, usually don't get a cycle top when -- when we get this type of behavior in the commodity markets, and to get the bust you need the boom and we haven't had the boom yet. >> all you brought was 60 years. come on, thought you would bring the heat. katie stockton, thank you very much. longer term, both constructive. here's what's on menu for the rest of the hour. china thing in new rules on short selling what. could that mean for china's stock market? and we'll take you live to the city that has become a leading spot for manufacturing right here in the good ole usa. and an increase in the number and severity of car wrecks, and it is costing companies money. it is costing people time. globally popular news anchors unable to make the top of their show. we'll talk more about this as "power lunch" tries to roll on. take a look at shares of alibaba up 100%. the company announcing it hired former goldman exec michael evans as president. will evans be able to bring the stock to the next level? a senior analyst reiterates a strong buy opinion on alibaba with a $116 price target on the stock. scott, great to have you with us. alibaba stocks are down 25% year to date. what's alibaba owes biggest problem at this point and will evans be able to help solve that problem? >> right, thanks a lot, melissa. i would say really the number one issue that alibaba is dealing with at this point is probably perceptions and realities related to the greater china economy. obviously there are a lot of questions about how that's been performing and what's going to be done to kind of solidify and strengthen what's going on fiscally there, and i think michael evans, look, won't single-handedly be able to right the ship, so to speak, but we think he's a valued addition to an already strong management team, and we think we's going to be charged with really expanding the company's reach beyond china. if you think about it, china accounts for 990% or so of the company's revenue. there's a big opportunity there. >> there's 35,000 employees over there at alibaba. no offense to evans and had a is up guy going to bring to that firm? >> look at evans and his background he's been involved with china for a couple of decade and he has extensive international experience and i think really what's important is alibaba sees that china is very obviously critical to what they are doing now but in the future, if you want to be a truly global player, you have to obviously have a presence and relationships in business, significant business outside of china, and i think that that's going to be what he's going to focus on, whether it's getting big multi-national brands to sell on their platforms or whether it's using the alibaba platform to sell outside of china. those are big opportunities, we think. >> all right. scott, we'll leave it there. thank you for your time. >> thanks a lot, melissa. >> want to keep focus on china right now with a bull-bear discussion on a new set of results issued by china overnight. china cracked down on short selling and unveiling rules that would make it more difficult for brokers to report on hourly price changes. let's bring in chief market analyst and great to have you guys. peter, i'll start it off with you. stopping short selling has never really helped a market that we've seen when that has happened. >> exactly. chinese authorities have broken that market. price discovery is now thrown out the window and it's priced by fiat and, unfortunately, after creating the bubble and responding to the downtown this is a mess i think they have gotten themselves into. the problem is at some point the market is going to win. leaving the market and we'll see a decline and artificially propping it up, the main intention it to see the debt levels fall to a level they are comfortable with and then they will walk away but they have destroyed market. >> i get your point about separating the chinese debt and the chinese economy and is there any risk from the markets specifically, shadow banking system which retail investors, large institutional investors on margins, the institutions that would forced to buy shares and hold on to them for a period of six months, when that effective lockup expiration ends, won't there be a risk to their balance sheets as well? is that a concern of yours? >> obviously there is a concern, but i think the investors are missing the larger concern is that it has been slowing down and has been slowing down for a while. they are trying to compare an emerging market which is inherently volatile with a development market like the united states. china is still an emerging market and will be volatile. patient investors in exchange for long-term returns and the shanghai market is still up. if you take over the last year, it's still up almost 72% and, sure, we've had a pullback, but if you take a look at it over the longer term, over one year, it's still up double digits and that's a good thing. so i think that it's getting a little bit overblown in thinking what the effects will be for the overall for the market in terms of these companies. it's still up over the year and year to date. >> you know, peter, i hear your concerns about china, but isn't it risky betting against the country that despite all of its problems still has $4 trillion in foreign currency reserves. if they want to move the needle, however they want to move, it they can. >> absolutely. i would never bet against what they want to do. they are going to push prices to where they want it to go, whether it stays that's a different story and big picture long term, china to me is the growth story of the 21st century so i'm extremely bullish longer term. i'm just really disappointed with what they have done to the asia market which is a different animal and much more attractive and price discovery is a key component of a free market and i think that they have really done a lot of damage to that and specifically in the asia market. >> karen and peter, we'll leave it there. great debate. thanks very much. >> thank you. >> we're looking at some of the big biotech movers boosting the ibbt today and phil lebeau is live in charleston, south carolina, which is a growing hub for manufacturing. phil? >> reporter: brian, there are more than 7,500 workers at this boeing plant in north charleston and not a single one is a member of the machinist union and guess what? south carolina's governor says boeing is better because of that. we'll take a look at issue of right-to-work states, the growth of manufacturing jobs when "power lunch" returns. having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second...boom, you had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and...boom, you're blindsided for a second time. they won't give you enough money to replace your brand new car. don't those people know you're already shaken up? liberty mutual's new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car, plus depreciation. call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch to liberty mutual insurance and you could save up to $509. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ ♪ it took serena williams years to master the two handed backhand. but only one shot to master the chase mobile app. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank. welcome back to cnbc first in business worldwide. let's take a look at some of the big biotech movers in today's session. shire pharmaceuticals making a bid for baxalta and if the bid goes through it would makeshire a leader in treatment for rare diseases. regeneron pharmaceuticals raising its sales growth forecast for its drug to treat macular degeneration, shares up more than 80% over the past 52 weeks and the ibb is higher today, and it's about 25% so far this year. brian? >> well, it is becoming the new manufacturing hub of the southern united states, and increasingly it's the choice for both plane and car manufacturers as well as their suppliers who are all looking to build new plants. phil lebeau is in north charleston, south carolina. why south carolina? >> well, a lot of people will focus on the fact that this is a right-to-work state and for big companies like boeing or bmw or micheline or a number of other companies setting a plant here means you're not required to walk in the unions and to say are you going to organize. here at boeing which by the way three dream liners a month at the facility, they have 7,500 employees and not a single one is a member of the machinist union which represents most of the blue collar workers in puget sound area. the machinists have targeted the plant and failed to organize when they called off a unionization vote. when we sat down with south carolina governor nikki haley and asked her about the issue of whether unions are welcome in south carolina she made no apologies for her belief companies are better off without unions. >> the im is not here and they can try as hard as they want. you look at bmw. it's not something they haven't had. we don't have unions here for a reason and because the complement and what the companies need to do is value their work force and a work force knows they are part of a family and they don't want a union getting in the middle of it. >> south carolina's unemployment rate at 6.6%, yes, above the national average but it's come down substantially since 2010 when it was at over 11%. bmw, its plan to be up in spartanburg, on schedule to build 350,000 vehicles this year. it's expanding capacity and it will soon become the largest bmw plant in the world, and brian and melissa, we were out at the port of charleston today. hundreds, basically thousands of bmw suvs getting loaded on to a ship where they will be shipped off to asia and europe and all around the world, the suvs that bmw sale come back to the states. >> do yourself a big nasty at the hominy grill. don't ask me but just do it. >> will do. >> shares of linkedin down 14% over the past week and one analyst defending the name today and four other opportunities just are for new street talk and we are counting you down to the oil close and trying to bounce off a six-month low. the final trades when "power lunch" rolls on. ♪ whoa what are you doing? putting on a movie. i'm trying to watch the game here. look i need this right now ok? come on i don't want to watch that. too bad this is happening. fine, what if i just put up the x1 sports app right here. ah jeez it's so close. he just loves her so much. do it. come on. do it. come on! yes! awww, yes! that is what i'm talking about. baby. call and upgrade to get x1 today. ♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. hi mi'm raph. tom. my name is anne. i'm one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because we're here, we're here, and we've got your back. legalzoom. legal help is here. nbut your dell 2-in-1 laptoped gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. hello, everybody. i'm sue her rare a.r.-and here is your cnbc news up date at this hour. democratic u.s. senator tim kaine says he'll support the iran deal, co-author of the bill allowing congress to review the deal. in a senate speech he said the deal is a dramatic improvement over the status quo of improving security. the number of people in new york city affected with legionares disease is 76. at least seven of the people have dead. the disease spreads through mist that comes from a could be tamnated water source. mayor bill de blasio urging anyone with symptoms to seek prompt medical attention. apple is denying it plans to sell mobile devices and directly to consumer. they deny reports they are testing a device that runs on a wireless network. this pick so painting called "head of a young woman" was taken from a boat docked at corsica. it was declared unexportable by spanish authorities earlier this year. that's your cnbc news update this hour. back to you, brian. it's good to see you. >> good to be here. >> you've had a hard day on the new jersey turnpike. he was stuck in that traffic for hours and hours. >> you know, a couple things. wasn't just me, about a billion other people. >> that's true successfully made some great friends, lifelong friends perhaps now. i just wish i had a grill, a bratwurst. >> there you go, brats, maybe a beer. >> good luck tonight. >> thanks. it's a mess. >> thanks, brian. oil bouncing back a bit today, down 0% over the past month. let's get out to jackie deangelis at the nymex for the final trades. >> wti closing at 4575 and we did hit 46.23 at one point and brent crude just finishing around that $50 a barrel mark. these market are not sure about what direction they want to see crude go in. the fundamental downside pressure still remains. maybe there's a little bit of optimism bringing us back and maybe it was looking into the api inventory number that will come out this afternoon or the department of energy number coming out in the morning so a couple of things to watch here but, again, a little bit of strength on the session. again, downward bias remains though and we are looking to go lower from here. never goes down in a straight line. back to you. >> all right. jackie. thank you very much. time for street talk and digging out five or so analyst recommendations on stocks you need to know about. let's do it. the first stock is vf corp. canaccord genuity starting it with a buy saying they are best in class manufacturer of clothes and shoes and northface likes the move to direct to consumer and they have an $88 target which implies a 15% upside. >> power of the portfolio really means the outdoor brands, northface as well as nautica, 50% revenue from the outdoors portion of their portfolio. second stock we're watched, linked in trying, down about 14% since reporting earnings. the concerns that guidance for the year is effectively a guide down. mtm says the display ad business is negligible and will be replaced by upside talent and the bulk which is at 60%. >> i'll say this, the average target price is 153 bucks for street talks so a bunch more analysts will have to come out and defend it or start cutting their target prices the third stock is west lake chemical, houston-based maker of things like polymers, stocks down 30% and olympic global advisors highlighting strong earnings. they rate, it guess what, an overweight with a $110 target, folks. that's about 75% upside here. do keep in mind that was a $98 dollar stock back in september of last year. >> you mentioned the big decline over the past 12 months, interesting because it was expected a lot of the chemical companies would benefit from lower wti prices because they would have lower input costs and we haven't seen that with west lake or dow or dupont. interesting stock to watch. footlocker raising price target from 67 and raising estimates from the year ahead of earnings on august 21st. athletic apparel footwear has held up in a weak jean and apparel market. consumers are okay with an increased selling price from nike and under armour and they see an increase in m & a or an increase if capital returns. >> i didn't know this until morning, they are the send best performer of any retailer over 90 days. gun who the best performer is? >> i don't know. >> barnes & noble. >> oh, really, wow. >> over three months. >> wow. >> last stock always a smaller under the radar number, luminex, biological testing materials wedbush upgrades the call. a 17% move, only about 10% more upside. keep this in mind p.the average target of the six analysts who cover it is now actually pleau where the stock is. >> actually reported earnings yesterday so that's helping to fuel all these calls today. >> that wraps up tuesday's street talk and a big market alert from our own steve liesman. >> the market is moving treasuries and the dollar moving on those comments from atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. there's the two-year note right there. you can see moving from 68 up to the 72, 73 level on the comments by lockhart and there's the ten-year note kind of up a basis point or two but the euro also losing ground against the dollar. there's the dollar index strengthening and the euro followary would be the opposite. well done boys in the back. can you see the euro weakening. let me remind you what the comments were. a centrist fed president who we follow for which way the winds are blowing at fed saying i think there's a high bar right now for not acting in september. that is raising rates. he also said it will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead, that is saying he would move ahead on a rate hike in september with some of the better economic data we've gotten of late. brian? >> treg there. see if the market moves on those headlines. steve liesman, thank you very much. time now for our other daily segment trading nation, and today we trade apple. it's had a bad run lately, for apple. it's down 10% over the past three months. dennis davit and david sbeerg head of equities trading and what are the options markets telling you about the future prospects? >> the interesting thing about what the options market is telling us right now is there's in the a lot of fear in the market. there's a lot of uncertainty about why the stock is down so much. i've heard various different theories over the course of the day but usually you look to options, the downside options like insurance against your apple position and they explode this in value. we're not seeing that today. if anything, i'm seeing people buying upside exposure to apple so the options market right now is saying they don't really -- no one knows why it's selling off but they are looking more towards a rebound in the stock than for it to continue to sell off. >> okay. let's go down to david sieberg, listen, you probably know why this stock has been selling off. tell us why, and also tell us how seemingly per putual bullish view of apple may actually work against it at some point. >> well, a couple of real quick things. first of all, it's trading off i think mainly because a few reasons, large-cap internet is doing really well. apple uses this source of funds. there's concerns about growth here and china taking market share. there's a real concern about iphone going negative growth and that's what people are getting their arms around. when i look at the options market and look at implied volatility and before the earnings you see a spike in implied volatility usually comes in after earnings. after apple reported we saw implied volatility take off and three-month implied volatility is through the roof. i look at the options market and say it suggests that people are betting against a successful iphone 6 launch or the earnings could be questionable. look, there's some real issues here with apple from the perspective of growth and i think investors are really starting to get their eyes around that. >> the concern is if everybody owns your biggest product, where is the growth going to come? got to keep putting out products. we'll find out. apple tv apparently rumored to be released as well. for more trading nation, head to our website, tradingnation.cnbc.com. >> a very interesting interview with a man who helps companies like uber deal with congress and speaking of d.c. we're going live to the white house where entrepreneurs are showing off their product to the president called demo day at the white house and it is next on "power lunch." now the latest from trading nation and a word from our sponsor. >> when it comes to investing, some use fundamental analysis to make sure they are picking quality stocks and technical analysis for entry and exit points. consider using a combination of both when you're formulating your trading plan. behold, these are two wind turbines. can you spot the difference? the wind farm on the right was created using digital models and real world location-based specs that taught it how to follow the wind. so while the ones on the left are waiting, the ones on the right are pulling power out of thin air. pretty impressive, huh? now, two things that are exactly the same have have never been more different. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. nbut your dell 2-in-1 laptoped gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. let's call this "shark tank" white house edition. entrepreneurs showing off their products, not to kevin o'leary, mark cuban and the rest of the team but to the president. live to the first ever white house demo day. >> reporter: that's right. you just said this is a first of its kind event hosted by the white house where some 90 entrepreneurs from around the country are here demoing their success stories. at age 9 he started his bowtie company and in the past four years he's sold 2,000 bowties all made in america and made about $300,000. >> well, i love being my own boss. i get to tell people what to do, but i also have to understand that i am the boss baby so the baby part i still have to listen to people. >> reporter: one of the pillars of demo day is inclusive entrepreneurship so the white house -- >> all right. we'll hopefully get back to kate rogers. at 9 years old, i suspect your parents might counter that they are truly the boss. perhaps the feed is being sent via the new jersey turnpike. one of the biggest challenges many startups face is trying to navigate miles of red tape. think uber disrupting the limo industry and all the other regulatory issues they have got to deal with so no surprise perhaps that one of uber's advisors have launched a new firm to help other pre-ipo startups to another level and he joins us now from san francisco. welcome to "power lunch." with all the stuff that we don't talk about, you literally see how the sausage is made. where are some of the biggest hurdles that these pre-ipos have to deal with in local and state governments? >> yeah, in fact, a lot more happens on the state and local level where regulation takes place on the consumer side so one, is you know, when you're disrupting someone, that means someone is being disrupted and they punch back, right, and they tend to have political influence and give you campaign contributions for a long time and try to use that influence to draft regulations to laws and to prevent startups from gaining traction. uber is a good example of pushing back. the second is a lot ofdeblowsio >> i don't think he would take my calls. >> you don't think he would. >> to push back against the cap on uber's growth probably not on the christmas list, but, look, you know, he put forward a law or a proposal that would have capped uber's growth at 1% and driven by his relationship with the taxi industry and made a couple of strategic mistakes and not really appreciating how broad and deep uber's support is among the voters and among the people of new york generally and also not appreciating how much antipathy is there is and off people of color pass by to taxis who won't take them where they want to go and we were able to tab into all of that and run a campaign that real generated a lot of support from people all across the city from elected officials, to the media and to drivers and to our customers and as a result we were able to stop that proposal on its tracks and allow unier to keep operating. >> if you do get that call from the mayor, will you let us know, brad? >> yeah. i'll pass it right along to you guys. >> i'm sure you will. bradley, appreciate your insight. thank you very much, bradley. >> thanks for having me on. >> all right, brian. new evidence that we are seeing an increase in the number of car accidents. why is this happening and which companies are hurt by it? that's next on "power lunch." they're down with an earnings weaker than expected. simply put there were more car wrecks which means more payouts and that is bad for allstate's bottom line. in case in point, a bad crash today on the new jersey turnpike. you might have heard something about this. myself and about 2 million of my closest friends were stuck there for nearly 3 hours. in fact, that's why i rolled in late today. traffic was backed up for miles because a dump truck caught fire closing both sides of the highway. may be closed for a while. it is nasty out there. deborah hirschman is head of the national traffic safety board. i tweeted out this morning that at least anecdotally it appears that we are seeing more car wrecks and i thought, is this because of texting or is it because there's simply more people on the road? and in fact am i wrong, it seems that allstate is confirming that there are more crashes lately. do we know why? >> you know what, brian, you and allstate are right. the data shows us that crashes are up. we've seen 12% increase in deaths on our roadways for the first five months of this year compared with the first five months of last year and so the data is backing you up. it is getting worse out there and allstate's numbers are putting it back. >> what i'm seeing, again, anecdotal stuff, fender benders, the driver in the back isn't paying attention as much as he or she should be. it's not hard to suspect that goens have got to be a part of this. >> the national safety council estimates that about 1/4 of the crashes are caused by cell phone use. we can see it an neck totally driving around but we also know that the risks are increased four times when people are talking on the phone. we see a four times increase in crash risk and when people are texting it's at least eight times crash risk. we know there are things going on out there in addition to the typical problems particularly during the summertime of alcohol and speeding. distraction is the third leg of that deadly stool. >> so, deborah, clearly drivers in general need to be just more aware, be more careful when they're driving. at the same time, longer term, what is your outlook for the number of accidents out there if, for instance, we are outsourcing our driving more whether to a professional driver like uber or awe tonnie mouse vehicle? >> i think there's a conundrum. when we talk about outsourcing to uber drivers, absolutely if you're impaired, if you are not able to drive you want to be able to outsource that. one of the challenges we see particularly with uber drivers is the way they're dispatched is through texts so that's distracting in and of itself. we've got to make sure that all drivers are paying attention behind the rear and that there aren't risky behaviors and not built into the business model. >> they're being built into the cars. the commercials, my car features wi-fi in the car. we're almost encouraging people to use mobile devices while driving. the car companies say, we mean the passengers. come on, what are we going to do about this? >> you know, you are right. when we see the commercials about granny updating her blog, it's about all the rest of us having that capability behind the wheel just as if we're in the office and at home but tremendous responsibility. we see over 35,000 fatalities on our roadways every year. we have got to be able to focus on the driving task. i do think autonomous vehicles and improved technology can be a game changer. if human beings don't want to drive, let's leave the driving to something that can do it better. >> deborah hersman, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. price line stock trading at 1278 per share. it is up 12% this year. can it go even higher? we tried to have a bull/bear debate, the problem is we could not find a bear so we'll have a bullish debate coming up. ♪ [ radio chatter ] ♪ [ male announcer ] andrew. rita. sandy. ♪ meet chris jackie joe. minor damage, or major disaster, when you need us most, we're there. state farm. we're a force of nature, too. ♪ we're a force of nature, too. nbut your dell 2-in-1 laptoped gives you the spunk for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. out of the five s&p listed companies, five names continue to rein in price. gwen pharmaceutical trades at 600 bucks, google, 660. autozone is kissing the $700 mark and chi pole tee 750. one is price line who broke the $1,000 level two years ago. it is the second best performer in the s&p 500 today up 3%. we take a look at where the analysts stand. 18 over wait, buy already. 7 holds. no sells. let's bring in dan wasileck. dan, how does it feel to be part of the herd? >> well, i mean, it's easy to play price line given their strong cash flows, their return on investment capitol and their overall investment in a very large travel market that is over 1 trillion in size where they have a mid single digit in share. we have different industries and verticals within the travel industry that's going to keep the industry growing strong and price line growing well with that. >> it seems that there are three prongs as to why you like the stock right now, continued leadership in europe and expanding u.s. presence and superior presence in china. in terms of european leadership, is there concern that those economies won't do as well and that will be a short fall for price line in the future? >> well, we estimate that europe is about 55% of total bookings for price line. it is a more mature market, as is the u.s. relative to the emerging markets. that being said, what we do like about europe and price line's positioning is that europe is made up of 60% of botique hotels. and those hotels, they have a much harder time marketing on their own. they really need a distribution such as price line to market. you know, despite the maturation that is occurring in europe and that being a major area for price line, we continue to see price line's international accounts and currency bookings being very strong. the accounts and currency international number was up 27%. >> dan, we've got to leave it there. the show is wrapping up. good view. thank you very much for your time. do appreciate that. melissa, what is coming up on ""fast money"". >> we talked about apple when you were stuck on the new jersey turnpike. a bull case for the stock at 5:00. all of you guys out there thinking about dipping your toe in, hear the bull case. >> you're literally going to have a captive audience on sirius channel 112 because there are 2 million cars stuck out there. >> good luck to them. >> today was a great day to remember to bring the jet pack. look forward to "fast money"." "closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. i'm bill griffeth. if you are listening to us on sirius satellite radio on the new jersey turnpike, condolences. settle back. we have a couple of great hours coming up. zhou component apple getting crushed again today. melissa lee was pointing out. we're going to look at both sides of whether it is time to cash out or buy more of apple stock at these levels. we have a bull and a bear on apple coming up momentarily. meanwhile, the dow stock stealing the spotlight for good reasons is disney. it's had the biggest year to da g

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