We begin with a social smackdown, twitter shares getting hammered again following the company reporting the worstever user growth in the second quarter. Little evidence things are getting better. The stock down 50 from its highs. Pete, you made some moves going into the print. Im wondering what you think now. About the quarter. Well i think after you listen to that conference call, you absolutely came away saying holy smokes, these guys got a little bit of work in front of them. When anthony nodo is talking about considerable time for them to be able to start to perform thats not what people want to hear. They had already heard or read about the earnings themselves. Those are actually not so bad. Although mau growth was certainly something everybody had been focusing on and it was not there. That was somewhat expected. The problem is how are they going to be able to get this Company Moving in the right direction Going Forward and thats i think where at both jack dorsey and mr. Nodo did not give any confidence that it was going to happen any time soon. Anthony nodo said we do not expect to see sustained meaningful growth in monthly active users until we start to reach the mass market. We expect that to take a considerable period of time. On that note, i want to bring in josh brown, our own josh brown of course who many of you know owns this stock. I assume he still does. Josh, are you there . Yeah. Whats up, guys . Im wondering what if anything youre doing with the stock and what you think today . I think if you look at the last four quarters, this has been an ongoing problem. Twitter cannot grow its user base, its posted essentially no growth. But i think its instructive to keep in mind that if youre in this stock, you know, youve already seen these kind of euphoric highs and these test bonda tedespondent lows. 30 was the level it found support. It bounced off of that level and within five months it had doubled, almost doubled to 55 by october. So within five months, the stock doubled. On very little news so this is a very volatile name. I think we should expect that my base case setup, whats going to happen with this name. I think it takes out the prior low, you get a two handle on it. That would be the false breakdown. And i think that that probably is the buying opportunity if youre nimble enough to catch it. I didnt have very High Expectations going into the quarter. The company has half a ceo. And i think they managed to even exceed everyones negativity and do even worse. Whats interesting, though, scott to wrap up, is that they seem to have absolutely no problem exceeding the one thing that no one cares about, which is monetization. They beat on revenue, they beat on earnings, they had a lot of good things to say about the new acquisition, which is already generating additional revenues, they werent even counting on in this quarter. So its the interesting thing where they cant grow the user base, but theyre killing it on advertising and the thing that people care about. They just cant give us any good news on. And thats been going on for a year. You have the stock, it sounds like youre holding it. But you feel like youre telling people, dont buy it here yet. Well, listen, it depends on your time horizon and you know, what youre trying to do with this name. Im not trading it. But i am trying to be opportunistic, scott. So if i see that false breakdown set up happen, meaning it pierces that 30 support level and everyone says its over, thats probably when i get excited. I add to my position. I lower my costs and await them to figure out what theyre doing on mau growth. But the financials are intact. This is a company grown revenue by 70 . I dont know if a lot of companies that are doing that. And i think the Google Partnership is probably their best bet to be able to have good things to say on mau growth. But that could take a while and i think expectations have been meaningfully reset at this point. The stock down 13 , josh thanks for calling in appreciate it. Lets bring in Pacific Crest evan wilson. He remains bullish on twitter. Evan, welcome, you have an overweight rating on this stock. Wall street cant seem to find anything to be positive about today. Are we missing something . Well its true, the user growth was disappointing. It has been for a long time. I agree exactly with what josh was saying. Think what people are overlooking the fact is theyre very focused on what nodo said last night. Theyre focused on what jack dorsey was saying last night. And the reality is, twitter in q 4 is going to announce a new ceo. Its that point in time, that person who is going to set the direction for this business if we look at a template from other Tech Companies who have gone through this kind of 200day period where they havent had a ceo, vultsz have been choppy in the interim. Once the results come in, wall street tends to give them a free pass for 60 or 90 days. So for those people selling today, it has to be bet that theyre not going to hire someone who can make twitter better known or believed in by the street some point late they are year. You dont feel like youre kidding yourself with the 52 price tarring and overweight rating . Absolutely not. Weve seen the stock there two times in the last year. Since we set the 52 price target, our numbers havent changed. Its a battleground stock. Youve got users on one side, financials on the other side. Think all we need to do is have the belief in the user side again and the stock could easily get to 52. Hey evan, if like you said nothing is go to matter until a new ceo sets the strategy. Thats q 4 at the soonest. Why does anyone need to own the stock right now . I dont think you want to miss the optionality associated with it weve done a big study how long it takes ceos to be hired, we think its 200 days. Theres some ceos which hire in a shoert time, like yahoo. Marissa mayer. I dont think you want to miss the scenario if they get it done in q 3. Wall street isnt lining up with what you have to say. But i guess we shall see. Thanks. Evan wilson. Weiss, whats your take here . I dont see any reason to own the stock. I dont trade stocks on false bottoms. I do get that some people do trade technicals. What i see is a company thats continued to miss in terms of achieving their growth target, their selfdescribed metrics. The best thing could you say for is that the call was so depressing and management led you down a path where they were saying nothing is going to happen any time soon, that you have to believe its bottomed out from that standpoint. Theres no optimism at all that they had. In terms of ceo, that can come in, theres no other company like this, period. Its not like finding somebody from microsoft thats already in house. Its not like finding somebody like marissa mayer, who really hasnt done anything. But theres a lot of pomp and circumstance around her. Ive got other places in the market i can lose money, i dont have to be here. I would rather buy baidu that got crushed. The reason they got crushed is because theyre spending much more on adding to another element. Which is their, which is their commerce, to compete with baba. So i would rather go there. There are other social Network Names i would rather go to. This is not one. A buy on twitter and a hold on facebook. Jimmy, im wondering if thats backwards. As you look towards facebooks earnings after the bell and the fact that theyve crushed it theyve killed it. They have. So the answer to your question is yes, but heres the caveat. If youre looking forward first off, facebook is probably going to crush it after the bell, anyway. So lets not dispute that and twitter is a mess right now. What you cant ignore is the 326 million users. I think thats the number i saw. Thats a huge asset. Its a question of how do they unlock the value. And frankly, the facebook comparison is interesting to me. Youll remember two years ago, facebook was looked at as roadkill. You know the stock was down in the high teens and people left it for dead. A lot of invest something pattern recognition. And ive got to say twitter is setting up from chart of view to look a lot like facebook. So maybe this guy has the right picture a year from now. Youre telling me you think would you buy this stock in. Not today. So not today, but, scott, maybe. Im saying this is starting to look a lot like facebook two years ago. If they bring in a great ceo, nobody knows who that could be, the stock pops 10 , you could get in there. Right now the risk reward is very much in balance. I would rather not play it this is just such a unique company and offering, you have to ask at the end of the day, whats the value . Whats the value as a product . And im not so sure its got greater value than facebook. I know it doesnt for example. One of the many others out there. Theres a vc who tweeted, who is apparently big into social circles and Silicon Valley that twit certificate a 100 billion company hiding inside a 20 billion company. 326 million users, they havent figure out how to monetize it. Thats why you bring in a new ceo and a new vision, thats a huge asset. That is value. Im not buying it today, but youre darn sure im watching this. I think youre focusing on the wrong number, youre focusing on the monthly active users, 300 plus million users, its the 500,000, 500 million who have logged off and not come back. Thats the problem. Did they get do 800 million . No, because folks have come in and gotten out. What about the idea that to move off of twitter, if you want to own anything in the social media space, can you make the case for anything right now other than facebook . Is it linkedin . Which has disappointed over the last three months . Yelp is a disaster today of epic proportions, the stock is getting destroyed. Lets not conjecture, the answer to the question is facebook is the only game in town as far as that goes. There was the wall street journal article from last week that pointed out theres six symptoms, facebook, amazon, google, netflix, im forgetting the other two, apple and that have accounted for all the nasdaqs rise, theres one horse thats winning this race in social media. Facebook. Back to twitter for a second here. The fundamental guys are going to need a couple of quarters of good revenue performance, good monetization and thats whats going to get them in the door. Theyre not rushing to get in there. They need proof, not just one quarter, they need two quarters. Also growth of users, period. The bottoms up guys are going to jump in once they see proof of that. Not just a spot of that. Coming up, a commodities meltdown crude down 50 in the past year. Gold has nearly fallen 16 so will that collapse continue . Were going to ask Goldman Sachss head of Commodities Research, jeff currie, it is a cnbc exclusive interview. Plus, barrons ranking him one of the top 10 Financial Advisers in the entire country. So how is he setting up for todays big fed decision . And beyond . Richard sapperstein of hightower treasury Partners Joins us. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Hi mim raph. Tom. My name is anne. Im one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. Dont let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because were here, were here, and weve got your back. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Feduring sleep trains youretriple choice sale. To save big for a limited time, you can choose up to 48 months interestfree financing on a huge selection of tempurpedic models. Or choose to save hundreds on Simmons Beautyrest mattress sets. You can even choose 300 in free gifts with sleep trains most popular Stearns Foster mattresses. The triple choice sale, on now at sleep train. Sleep train your ticket to a better nights sleep less than two hours away now, from the fed decision on Interest Rates. Set to be released at 2 00 p. M. You know youll see it live here. Market is in rally mode ahead of that decision. Utilities the only secretarior in the red right now and were joined by rich saperstein, the cio of hightower treasury partners, one of barrons top ten Financial Advisers for 2015. Good to see you again, welcome back. Thank you. Youre managing my money and im calling you and im saying okay, china has me a little worried. I dont know what the fed going to do, what do we do . Whats your answer . We think the fed will tighten in september because they want to normalize rates. But i think theres two factors that we have to think about. One is if they dont tighten, its highly unlikely theyll tighten in september and we had four of four gdps come in negative in q 1. That would put them waiting until about april or may to tighten. We look for september to normalize. I think the bigger issue right now with the tightening, is the knockon effect in the emerging markets. Think about weve had a weak dollar, zero Interest Rate policy. And qe for the last six, seven years. Now were seeing the dollar strengthen, a commodity bust. Emerging market currencies are decimated. And theyre going to have trouble making their budgetses. Youre saying were going to see a taper tantrumlike effect on the emerging markets, but on steroids . Absolutely. Its starting right now this is a global event thats going to occur over the next 1218 months. We dont seem to be recognizing that. That is one of the risks that could affect the stock market Going Forward. The fed likely will tighten. When lehman went under, twas a Money Market Fund that caused the ignited the spark that caused the fire. It wasnt actually lehman. So weve got to look at the derivative effect of the tightening and where the risk is going to come from. Now youre scaring me, im saying what are we doing with my money, rich . Were not going to buy emerging Market Equities right now. Were staying away from emerging market debt. Weve got to also look at the fix income environment is where rates could replay low as a result of flight to capital to treasuries Going Forward. If there is this global risk. We still like the equity markets, we think increased volatility caused by fed normalizing rates will provide an opportunity for hedge funds. So rich, you know, just to be clear. Even if the fed does go this year, you still see rates staying lower. You see the curve flattening here just to be clear here . Yeah, front end, one to fiveyear paper will likely go up in light of the tightening. We think the front end of the curve is severely misunder pricing or not recognizing fed action right now. Longer end, we comfortable with right now. The picks that you have for us are all etfs and you have four of them. Iyg is number one, financials. So financials is sort of an elegant way to hedge rising rates. But we like the banks. We think interest margins are widening. Loans are increasing, a good sector. If you have flattening yield curve, youre not going to get the boost in net interest margins in the financials. That would be disappointing to the funds that own the financials. Correct, that would be, i own iyg as a hedge against the rising rates. But you are right. In fact theyre still having a rising interest margin and were still seeing loan growth. The sector that we also like that ironically would not do well in rising rates is Home Builders. Itb. Household formation now is on the rise. Its back to 2006 levels, home builder confidence is up to 2005 level and we think the Home Builders is another attractive sector to be in. I agree with most of what you said. Some of the pushback that i hear and im sure you hear it, too, one, the thesis that the fed wont raise in december and we used to run a brokerdealer. Believe me, i get what youre saying. Theres a supposition that maybe thats, if they telegraph it well enough, that the banks and the various brokerdealers merry christmas, theres your rate hike. If they telegraph it so the bankers and brokers can get their Balance Sheets in line ahead of time. A quarter basis point if they do it in september and theyre stuck until march or whatever, does a quarter basis point is that enough to upset emerging markets and the Housing Market and whatever else . No i think its really symbolic. What will have impact is whether or not its a oneanddone or if were going to see continuous tightening in 20042006. We had 350point basis point rise. The treasury went bernankes conundrum. Exactly. I think its a bigger question whether theyre going to move in september or december is whats the future policy of the fed funds . Is it one and done or a continuous slow rise . Its slow. Will it in front of Inflation Expectations or not . That would move longer rates higher if theyre behind Inflation Expectations, weve got to stay tuned, stay very close to this. You scared me, im a little calmer now. Richard saperstein, thank you. Coming up, commodities meltdown. Will the selloff continue . Or are we finding a bottom . Exclusive interview with Goldman Sachss global head of Commodities Research, jeff currie. We get his outlook coming up. And the patriots standing firmly behind tom brady as the nfl upholds his fourgame suspension. Owner robert kraft saying the league has no hard evidence. What can tom brady do next . Were going to ask sports Business Insider rick carle. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Nobodys hurt,but there will you totstill be pain. New car. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do, drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had a Liberty Mutual new car replacement, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. New car replacement is just one of the features that come standard with a base Liberty Mutual policy. And for drivers with accident forgivness,rates wont go up due to your first accident. Learn more by calling switch to Liberty Mutual and you can save up to 423. For a free quote today,call Liberty Mutual insurance at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver . Back, another earnings edition of our trader blitz, four trades on four stocks making news today. First up is glaxosmithkline, beating on the top and the bottom. Jimmy lebenthal, stock sup 3 on that. It continues to trend in bigcap pharma. Everybody has beat across the board. Pfizer, merck, bristolmyers, glaxosmithkline. I think the only difference with glaxosmithkline is theyre a little bit behind the ball as far as their oncology franchise goes. Theyre picking up the pace on that. And thats probably where the value in glaxo stands, so if youve missed the move in those other names, glaxo, even up 3 today still has some value if you believe theyll unlock their oncology pipeline. Gilead, pete you looic this one today . Theres a good reason why the street liked it. They looked at the numbers around 5 billion. You look at the earnings, revenue, the growth that this company has. And still trades at about a 13 times earnings, even at the price that its at now. I would have expected it through 120, we didnt get there. Something is going on there think the only disappointment is acquisition, when can they get themselves in position to make an acquisition, get into oncology. They have the hiv area as well as the hepp c. A lot of strength there, looking for more. Look at shares of altria, mo. Theres a stock block. Down 2 . They beat what about the guidance . Why is the stock down . Its had a nice run. They raised guide sentence. Its had a nice run. Its had a little pop, a nice run here. On the heels of the reynolds acquisition there was talk surfacing yesterday that altria would emerge with Philip Morris international. Perhaps the time has come. I wouldnt be thinking thats going to happen any time soon or tomorrow but down the road. Lets get defensive here. General dynamics, northrop grumman. Talk to me. These are anything but defensive. Theyre moving up nicely, they had beats. Triple play for gd. They beat on earnings, beat on revenue. They increased guidance. These companies with a lot of government business had very predictable earning streams that allows management to manage expectations. So they can come out with beats, so i still think theyre a solid company. Coming up, oil rallying for the second day following inventory data. Does signal a selloff might be coming to an end . Goldman sachs, head of Commodities Research. Jeff currie joins us exclusively next with outlook. Im raph. My name is anne. Im one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. Dont let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because were here, were here, and weve got your back. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Heart healths important. So you may. Take an omega3 supplement. But its the ingredients inside that really matter for heart health. New bayer pro ultra omega3 has two times the concentration of epa and dha as the leading omega3 supplement. New bayer pro ultra omega3. My name is jamir dixon and im a locafor pg e. Rk fieldman most people in the community recognize the blue trucks as pg e. My truck is something new. Its an 811 truck. When you call 811, i come out to your house and i mark out our gas lines and our electric lines to make sure that you dont hit them when youre digging. 811 is a free service. Im passionate about it because every time i go on the street i think about my own kids. Theyre the reason that i want to protect our community and our environment, and if me driving a that truck means that somebody gets to go home safer, then ill drive it every day of the week. Together, were building a better california. Hello, everyone, im sue herera with your cnbc news update. The Justice Department announcing philadelphia congressman chaka fatah and his four associates have been indict ford their roles in an alleged racketeering conspiracy. That involves the miss appropriation of thousands of dollars of federal charitable and campaign funds. Fatah denying the charges. The coast guard says the search for the two florida missing teens in the Atlantic Ocean has been extended to south carolina. Perry cohen and austin sanophas have not been seen sis piloting a fishing boat in jupiter, florida, last friday. Another brush fire in Northern California spreading quickly. The blaze covering ten acres, after two hours of battling the blaze, firefighters say they have it under control. And a British Airways flight from las vegas to london made an Emergency Landing in montreal after a bomb threat. A Canadian Police official confirming the threat was made aboard the flight there were more than 325 passengers and crew on the plane. No one was hurt, though. Thats the cnbc news update. Back to you, scott. Gasoline futures bouncing off a threemonth low today. Jackie de angelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. Thats right. Were seeing gasoline rally today after the department of energy said we saw a drawdown in stockpiles, we were expecting to see an inventory build. We didnt get it. So scott nations, looking at the situation, whats happening in the Energy Complex today. You say the only thing that matters is gasoline in relation to crude. Explain it to for me. Thats right. Because while gasoline features are up over 1 today. Crude oil is up more than double so if youre thinking today that gasoline is a big bargain, youve missed the giant move and the giant move is that year to date crude oil is down about 9 , while gasoline futures are up 25 . Thats not great news for driver, the only people its really good for are refiners. It could be good for others as well. And jeff killberg, i want to talk to you about that. Weve seen a 35 drop in gasoline futures since this time last year. Now does it help the earnings picture . Unequivocally its hurt earnings. Weve seen the s p 500 estimates for earnings as of a drop of about 2 . Buy and large due to the Energy Sector of the s p 500. Were looking at the largest year over year decline in any sector in quite some time. I think the biggest wild card is that the average consumer should save about 1,000 a year, we didnt see them spend that 1,000 in the first half of 2015. Will they spend it on the back of 2015 . That could help earnings going into the third and fourth quarter. Right now its hurt earnings. They can save it, but they have to go out and spend it. For more on a futures market, head to the website, futures. Now. Cnbc. Com. Lets drill deep neither commodities trade. With someone whose view is closely watched by investors. Jeff currie is the global head of Commodities Research at goldman sachs. Hes joined by our own kate kelly down at the new york stock exchange. Jeff, gooed to have you on the program again. Kate, why dont you start us off. Jeff, great to have you here. Youve been talking in your research about the sort of negative feedback loop thats occurring in commodities right now where we have a vicious cycle recurring low prices. Can you explain a little whats going on . I think its good to take a step back before you talk about the negative feedback loop and talk about the three ds of macro, deflation, divergence in currencies and deleveraging of debt. I want to emphasize these three themes are a decade in the making. Nolg something thats going to unwind over the next three to six months, theyll take a year or so to play out. Lets go over why theyre a decade in the making. Deflation, excess Commodity Production capacity all over the world. Productivity gains through a decade of a commodity boom. So its response and investment to the higher prices. Second one, we think about currency divergence. There we look at the u. S. Economy it is very far ahead of the rest of the world in terms of accommodative policy. In qe. The Market Pricing in 100 chance right now. It will be 11 years since the past rate hike. A decade in the making, the third theme which is deleveraging of emerging markets. Look at china and the rest of the emerging markets, a decade boom going back to 2004. Theyve amassed huge macro imbalances, particularly credit where its growing two times gdp. Emerging market currencies at a 15year low. Which is remarkable. Talk to me about oil. You guys are bearish oil. Your latest price target was wti, hitting the 45 range. Is that seasonal . Having to do with refinery maintenance and today the stockpile lightened up in the u. S. We look at todays data. There was a big draw in crude. Thats what the market is reacting to. I think more importantly lets focus on the product side. Gasoline this time of year. The draw was disappointing. A big build of distillate and refining margins are going down. This brings me to the trifecta of data points, one is refining margins. If demand strength was real. We would expect refining margins to hold as we hit the peak refining rounds. Refineries need to buy crude can buy it cheap and sell it for a higher price, their margins are great. Yes, weve seen their margins contracting over the last three to four weeks, which is telling you that the inuse demand for infrastructures is not there. Chinese demand is weak. Latin american demand is weak. Even in europe. So thats the first data point. The second data point are what are lowcost Oil Producers like saudi arabia. Iraq as well as russia. Alltime high, 10. 6 billion barrels a day. Together theyre growing production at two million barrel as day. Then the third data point were watching is what do u. S. Producers do to the higher prices, we got our evidence, three out of the last four weeks theyve kicked up drilling, last week they raised drilling and oil, 21 rigs, the highest level since april of 2013. Reinforce as bear story and we continue to maintain our nearterm target of 45 a barrel. 45 nearterm target for crude. What about the bloodbath in copper . Is that anywhere close to being over . Somewhere around the seventh inning. Is the one the most exposed to our three ds, deflation, Lower Energy Prices lowers the price of producing copper. Divergence in currencies, weaker chile peso lowers the price of labor to produce the copper. Deleveraging of china. It reduces the demand for china, we think about copper, its getting nailed by all three and it has a negative feedback loop associated with it in terms of thinking about the down side risk in copper were maintaining a 12month target of 45 a ton. I want to get to gold. To follow a question on oil. With 45 the october target whats the chance we go lower than that . A 30 handle, a 20 handle . Do you agree . I think the down side risk are substantial. We like to point out theres been no pain in this industry. We have to actually see some distress start to occur. We calculate that 40 a barrel for six months starts to create real default risk in the highyield market. So if we think pain is needed to get restructuring in the industry weve got to see prices in the lower 40s to create the type of restructuring thats needed. Can you think of another time in history where improving economies granted the not roaring ahead, but in europe and in the u. S. And japan. Have not led to an increase in Commodity Prices . I get china, that seems to be the marginal player as it has been. I think the best example of history is going back to 8485. When the u. S. Economy was coming out of recession in the early 80s. Strong Economic Growth but downward pressure across the commodity complex. What was the story then . Similar to today. Substantial increases in productive capacity. More of a supplyside story in the mid 80s, similar to today. Right now youre essentially recommending shorting just about anything. Where we would find the most value in shorting the markets is looking out of the back end of the forward curves. Wti is trading around 60 a barrel. Brent is 70 a barrel. We think about wheres the down side risk . It has to come from producer selling. We need to see distress in the industry. Once you get distressed, youre going to get the corporate selling. I want to emphasize weve seen down side risk in the last week or so. Youre bearish natural gas, although you see it moving up from here. Youll still be under the forward curve with your price targets in the low to mid 3 range . We just recently took down our price targets on natural gas. What was driving that was supply in north america, similar to what weve seen in oil has surprise to the upside. Productivity gains and so forth. Demand equally a surprise to the down side particularly from industrial demand, one of that has to do with the stronger dollar. But also while we do see an increase driven by what we make are the three key drivers next year. One export demand. To mexico lng, coal plant retirement and a somewhat improvement in the industrial demand outlook. Jeff quickly before we wrap, i realize youre not a fixed income guy obviously. To the concerns that some people continue to have, maybe even voicing a little bit louder these days, of potential blowups in high yield in the energy space. Are you as concerned as some others, will we see the number of companies blowing up relative to that increase dramatically . I think when we think about high yield as a percentage of overall financing of the sector, it needs to come down i like to point out theres four ways it can come down. One through bankruptcy. Which we dont put a high probability on that the other way is we have large players like the integrated oils buying out the smaller players and taking the debt out that way. The third way is when we think about private equity. Purchasing the bonds, forcing the default and taking ownership of the equity that way. The fourth way is the Companies Issue equity and pay down the debt. It depends whether you want to be long the debt or short the debt. And its very, idiosyncratic relative to the firm. Talk to us briefly about gold. Its sliding ahead of the fed meeting. How much lower do we go from here . When we think about the three ds, theyre driving gold prices, deflation, lower energy costs, weaker South African rand. Drives down the cost of producing gold. Deleveraging, india, china, reduce the demand of gold through jewelry. As well as the monetary demand. We continue to remain negative. I want to put a caveat in terms of the nearterm outlook. If we were to see a lack of a response by the fed in racing rates in september because the market is rising in about a 45 chance. Given the fact that the gold market is very short. We could see some upside price risk driven by that we continue to maintain our 10. 50 target. Thanks so much. Scott, over to you. Jeff, see you soon. Kate as always, thanks so much for bringing jeff to us, interesting discussion and michael, this commodities crush, which clearly jeff currie doesnt really see ending, in the nearterm, factors into why you dont think or you think the fed is taking this obviously into great consideration. Yeah, i know the fed wants to normalize rates here, scott. And theres some data thats good. But how does the fed raise rates under any circumstances in the middle of a commodity meltdown . What stgst going to mean for inflation data . Does disinflationary data and the fed is tightening . That doesnt make sense, i cant get my head around that. Oil 45 according to currie. Copper in the seventh inning of a nineinning game unless it kbets gs into extra innings. What do you if youre an investor looking at the dramatic pullback in some of these names and z and deciding whether to get in or not. Coal stocks are all trading Single Digits or well on their way. You take a look at the equipment companies, koetter piller, cnhi, which i was short, covered yesterday, unfortunately. Take a look at those, theyre not selling sales are down double digits. I think its late in the game for those, i think you look for growth stocks. Patriots tom brady says hes innocent. Nfl is not backing down on his fourgame suspension. Robert kraft is speaking out. Bigtime today. So what is the next move for the patriots and brady . Well find out. Plus we count down to the fed decision, 2 00 p. M. Eastern. See it live on power lunch. Coming up at the top of the hour on power lunch, the feds latest decision coming down during the show. It could be a major market mover. Weve got every angle covered with reaction, analysis from all the biggest names in investing. A 6 rally in the s p 500, we have the chief investment strategist who made the call. Hell tell us the sectors that will fuel the s p higher and this is an incredible and scary stor story. Air Traffic Control not letting the pilot land. We have the disturbing audio tape for you to hear. All those things and more coming up top of the hour. Make sure you join us for a big fed day show. Would not miss it. Obviously were going to carry the fed decision live and were going to take a quick break . Going to take a break . Hello . Anyone there . Buehler . Morgan brennan is live now with yahoos new Product Launch event in new york. Hi, morgan. This is george peterson. Were in Downtown Manhattan where yahoo Just Launched a new consumer product. Called live text, a mobile messaging app that combines text messaging and video. But no audio. So heres how it works. Ive got it open on this phone and im going to chat with the person on the other end. We can have a whole conversation. Heres the concept. We can have a private text message conversation but still have the context between those two users, see the other persons reaction, be able to do it anywhere. So live text is going to be available for download in the u. S. , canada, germany, france, and france and the uk starting tomorrow going to be available on ioen is and android devices, specifically smartphones. A free download. You might be wondering how is yahoo going to make money off of this . This came up in the q a, have a listen. What we always find on these Consumer Products is once you get to scale, there are opportunities to monetize, well look for what we think are the native opportunities. How does it feel and work within that product experience. The other thing to note is that this app is going to you wont be able to save or archive any of your messages, any of your conversations that you have with folks on it, there you have it live text from ewe, back over to you. Morgan brennan live for us in new york city. Coming up, patriots owner bob kraft comes to tom bradys defense, rips the nfl. Take a listen to what he had to say. I was wrong to put my faith in the league. Now sports insider rick carle will be with us to talk about whats next for the patriots, for mr. Brady, for the nfl at large. Plus whole foods win. The fed, a whole lot more and only hours to trade all of it. Well give you the playbook next. Pubut to get from theand yoold way to the new,d. Youll need the right it infrastructure. From a partner who knows how to make your enterprise more agile, borderless and secure. Hp helps business move on all the possibilities of today. And stay ready for everything that is still to come. The deflategate story getting pumped up today. Bob kravrt criticizing the nfl for upholding tom bradys suspension and how the league has handled the entire situation. It is completely incomprehensible to me that the league continues to take steps to disparage one of its alltime great players and a man for whom i have the utmost respect. Personally, this is very sad and disappointing to me. Well, now lets bring in rick horrow, he is the president of who a horror sports ventures. Rick, historic event earlier today when bob kraft said what he did about the league and the commissioner certainly given his stature within this league. Whats your reaction . We have a 25 billion value revenue Aspirational League within the next four or five years going toetotoe with a star and one of the more enlightened owners. We probably have a long protracted litigation over process. Everyone will shift from his fourgame suspension to article 46 of the players bargaining agreement. Tom brady doesnt like the result. I thought the players and coaches were reporting for camp today. I guess theres more to it than that. Speaking of going to court, is it possible that kraft himself on behalf of the patriots could sue the league as a result of whats gone down here . Well, jerry jones was attempting to do that. Al davis and the davis family did that. It is hard to believe he would sue his 31 warters partners. The patriots value according to the latest froshz survorbes 2 billion. Revenues over 400 million. Hard to believe he would sue. He said that he had that option on the table in may, chose not to do it. Hard to do it now. But it is not just posturing for brady and his fans. He is genuinely upset at the process. And also how the media portion of this was handled. Is the cell phone missing, is it destroyed, which cell phone was it, was the top of it broken, how many messages were on it. Were all now expert on per square inch. We should be experts on blitzing linebackers. Interesting especially with those comments today from mr. Kraft. Rick, appreciate you taking some time out of your day to call in. It aint over. Well be doing this more, guarantee you. No doubt. Rick horrow, president of who are row sports ventures. Countdown to the fed Decision Just one hour away. We have your final trade setup ahead of that announcement. Can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . To cook healthy meals. Yet up to 90 fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. Lets do more. Add one a day mens 50 . Complete with key nutrients we may need. Plus it helps support healthy Blood Pressure with vitamin d and magnesium. Going to be a busy rest of the day. Fed decision about an hour away. Three hours left to trade ahead of some pretty big earnings including whole foods, marriott, many more. Michael block, you are ahead of the fed trade would be what . Wait in the weeds. No matter what happens theyre going to receive it as hawkish. Im looking for large cap banks to make a run back to recent highs. They do, im fading names. Im the other side. I think financials are not only going to run but theyll run even faster and well see some new highs. It will be broad. Im with pete on that side. Bam ill see you guys in the weeds then. How about some of these earnings . Whole foods going to be interesting to hear from. Tmobile is always interesting because of ledger. Conocophillips, marriott . First off, you got to get out of the way of a commodity complex. Something like conocophillips, it is a Great Company but you just cant ignore where crude oil prices are and are going to go. So stay out of the way of that one. Whole foods, and marriott, these are good names to own because Consumer Discretionary has been doing well and will continue to do well as the labor market improves and wages continue to grow. Thats a good place to be. So you like whole foods. Both weis and pete i see have holds. Competition has been brutal. If you look at the stock, it has not bounced after that q2 where the stock got smacked. I still think competition is getting worse and worse for whole foods. Its not cheap. It is selling at twice its growth rate. Grown 10 , selling at a 20 pe. Love the concept, love the company but its overpriced. Stocks are up 100 points ahead of the fed decision coming in an hour. It will all unfold on power lunch which begins right now. Announcer halftimes over. The second half of your trading day begins now. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to power lunch. Im long with mandy drury, im tyler mt. Son. We are less than an hour away from the fed decision. The markets are in waitandsee mode. But the dow is up for a second day in a row by. 5 . Nasdaq up by. 2 . S p 500 up by nearly. 5 . We are not going to ignore the fed, not one bit. But our top story at this hour is a very scary one for anyone who flies. It is an argument in the air with the pilot nearing
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