Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg July 3, 2024

Then we speak to the ceo of one of the biggest providers, csop. Haslinda lets take you to markets, where avril hong is on top of developments. Stocks and bonds getting sold off, investors adopting a wait and see attitude. There is a lot to read through today, so bear with me, as we saw that set up from wall street. It was a pretty flat close. Today asian stocks are mostly over save for japan and china. For different reasons. In china, we have seen tech and property rebounding. Property as it scraps homebuying restrictions, and the idea that other tier two cities will follow suit. Thats also boosting the commodity iron ore, those prices ticking higher. In japan, the likes of an earnings release, and we got the news about the share buyback. Those are among the individual names lifting the japanese benchmark. But were also seeing the selloff in bonds, after a 10year treasury auction, and the yields in australia, as well as new zealand, you are seeing big moves about 6, 7 basis points. Dont forget, we also have a 30year auction in the u. S. To her get through later today. We are keeping an eye on dollaryen, it dipped below 155. 5 earlier, but it is weakening again after the digesting of what we got from the boj summary of opinions. There is a lot to read through when it comes to developments out of japan, as we heard from the boj chief in the past hour, speaking in parliament talking about the need to raise rates if the price trends upwards as expected. This is coming shortly after the summary of opinions show there was a lot of discussion about rate hikes. This is against the backdrop for context, of the recent meeting between ueda and kishida, seemingly giving the green light to Monetary Policy to cap the weakness in the japanese currency. It looks like that meeting in june is a live one. You can see why the bonds today in japan are coming under pressure. Of course, part of the global picture. Dont forget, we have another tricky 30year option to get through tomorrow. Haslinda thats right, of course, en traders on edge right now. Avril hong, thank you for that grade we have a line on Country Garden. It says it cant make that Interest Payment on the yuan bond. Country garden seeking assistance on that, now it is saying it cant make Interest Payments on that yuan bond. We will keep you posted on further develop his prey lets get you back to markets. Bring in our first guest, who expects the dollar to remain strong, and u. S. Treasury yields to be rangebound. Harley davidson is cio of Charlie Jamieson is cio of Jamieson Coote bonds, a highgrade bond manager, joining us from melbourne. You have assumptions and what the fed might be doing. It seems traders are in a quagmire, undecided what the fed is going to do. Charlie the fed have stated they want to be datadependent, which is quite unusual, normally they would have some strategy for this part of the cycle, as they would see growth start to slow, they might look to move to rate cuts. But given the weakness of their own modeling through a covered period, they have become very data dependent brand thats leading them to not do a whole lot. This rise we have seen in some pricing pressures, we have cpi next week to take another look at that, is pushing out any affectation that rate because might come. What is interesting is the head had the chance to acknowledge that last week, and they didnt. That puts some floor under u. S. Treasury yields for now combined with a larger than expected curtailing of the qt program. So we have seen yields just come back into the, middle of this range, they are around 4. 5 . It is hard to see them moving more than 20 basis away from that right now. Until we get more certainty on the price picture, or the growth picture, which has certainly been slowing in the United States of light. Its not quite is exceptional as it was previously, still very good, but not as good as it was. Haslinda how is your portfolio looking right now . Have you made changes of late . Charlie certainly, european rights, we have got the bank of eglinton i are the u. K. Look likely to be setting up for a rate cut. We saw the riksbank cut rates yesterday. We still think canada and new zealand can cut rates in the near term. The u. S. Not so much. We certainly have a favoring in our global portfolios to be underway treasuries to some degree versus those markets that are going to see more active central bank movement. But none of the Central Banks can get very far without the fed participating. They are at risk of devaluing their own currencies if they let those interestrate differentials get too far. We are seeing japan really struggled with that concept right now. Whether this kind of perpetual weakness in the yen is causing issue. We do have a favor for those markets that are a little further into their restrictive rate settings, have had higher transmission mechanisms, and were seeing that bite through their own macro domestic data, whereas the u. S. Has been exceptional and certainly would be towards the back of that pack for anybody that might be looking for right because later this year, or into 25. Haslinda hang tight. We have trade numbers out of china we have been waiting for. We have april exports in usd terms rising 1. 5 year on year versus estimates of 1. 3 . Betterthanexpected. April imports in usd terms rising 8. 4 year on year, the estimate was 4. 7 , again, both a beat. Exports in particular have been surging, which has been a because of concern for u. S. And European Business leaders and politicians, they have been talking about overcapacity. Bearing in mind, the yuan and lack of inflation in china prompting pretty much overseas sales at the expense of other exporting nations. Those april export and import numbers coming in betterthanexpected. Just an overview and your thoughts on how chinas economy is doing, and how you might view its assets . Charlie things have been Getting Better there of late. We have noted that activity has been picking up. Certainly, after some concern earlier in the year, these numbers are looking better which is a good news story no doubt. As we sit here in australia, were heavily predicated to those outcomes, so its great to see china starting to stand on its own two feet little better. That kinda points to the change in step function as we go around the world. After Central Banks and economies seemed to move in unison, as we came out of the covid experience, were seeing economies running at different cadences and different rhythms. China has been in the doldrums but is picking up. As i noted earlier, the u. S. Turning to slow down, europe which has been on the back foot starting to step forward a little bit. Its interesting as we think through our global portfolios, that there are now these divergences occurring. There is quite a bit more to look at as we think about our relativitys with Asset Allocation amongst those geographies. Haslinda we talk about yields and how attractive they are looking. They have not been this high along time. Do you keep chasing yields, what is the right strategy . Charlie yields are high, there is no question, but cash rates are also high. They are all in combination. But certainly, it is a very investable asset class where we couldnt make those arguments at the depth of covid. It had portfolio need and one for Liquidity Negative correlations at times, under higher inflation, those correlations have moved more positive, so the change in inflation over the balance of this year will be critical. We noted they have just picked up a little bit, they are certainly not high like they were in 2022, but they are not finishing off on that last mile central bankers want to see. We think the yields story is very encouraging for investors. Allowing them to build defensive allocations in portfolios that they may have avoided for some time. The broad expectation is the next major moves from Central Banks, as we saw last night from the riksbank, will be interestrate cuts. We feel that will be pretty mild. There is nothing huge in that space but it is a positive development for fixed income. Haslinda Charlie Jamieson, cio of Jamieson Coote bonds. Just to recap the china trade data earlier. Exports year on year coming in higher by 1. 5 . Estimates were for 1. 3 . Imports coming in way betterthanexpected, jumping 8. 4 versus 4. 7 in terms of perhaps suggesting an economy that is recovering. Bear in mind, the yuan has been lackluster. Inflation or lack thereof in china helping boost exports as well. Were live at the Capital Markets forum in hong kong. Hear why the new ceo of the Stock Exchanges bullish about their ipo pipeline. That exclusive conversation coming right up. Keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. I cant believe you corporate types are still at it. Just stop calling each other rock stars. And using workday to put finance and h. R. On one platform. Tim, you are a rock star. Using responsible ai doesnt make you a rock star. It kinda does. You are not rock stars. clears throat okay. Most of you are not rock stars. Oooh. Data driven insights, and large language models. Oh, thats so rock roll. It is, right. He gets it. Yeah. what took you so long . Im sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. You get the sauce i like . Of course youre the man i wish. The future isnt scary. Not investing in it is. Nasdaq100 innovators. One etf. Before investing, carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com haslinda just recapping some lines were getting from Country Garden. It cant make that Interest Payment on its yuan bond. It has said its not made that Interest Payment guarantee bond in what may be the first of its case. This on the back of chinas hang cho city removing all restrictions. We know a lot of chinese cities have been easing homebuying policies to boost sales to prop up the sector. Lets get more from our very own david ingles. But all of this in perspective for us. David this is important because its a test case for, if you remember back in 2022, there was a program, effectively, the aim of the program back then was to allow some of these developers that were effectively shut out of the Capital Market to issue bonds. And for investors to then look at those bonds as something as well. This was back in 2022. This is the first test case of that because there were two Interest Payments due today, in yuan bonds. Im giving you the rounded up figure here. 66 million renminbi over two coupon payments, 9. 1 million. So that Interest Payment is actually due today. We did some reporting on bloomberg yesterday that Country Garden was seeking help from that program we just mentioned earlier to pay the interest because we understand based on these lines coming through, that they cant make those payments. So, we will try and get to the bottom of this. Thats what we know so far. We have until the end of the day to put that in context for us. Its a test case for a program that was put in place to backstop confidence at this point in time. We have yet to wait and see. Thats the market story of the property story today. The other bit is a on a mental story, hang cho was the latest Major Chinese city to come out and loosen property and home purchase restrictions in a bid to boost the property market. We have come in from a lot of cities. Hangzhou, changsha, chengdu, shenzhen came out with something similar. The statement is in mandarin so let me rephrase that. Hangzhou city has removed all of her assertions on residential purposes purchases effective on thursday. It will strengthen credit support for the property sector, including lower mortgage payments for some homebuyers. Hangzhou will no longer review the qualifications of homebuyers in what is the latest step, in one of the latest city to come out and help boost this fundamental story, but when you talk about this in the context of markets, is a story we continue to follow because that remains a structural issue for many long only investors. Haslinda all the moves to lifted sentiment somewhat. But still, the benchmark for the property sector down 50 yeartodate. Lets stay with hong kong. Hong Kong Exchange ceo bonnie chan, says she is anticipating the comeback of bigticket ipos to the city. She spoke to bloomberg as the exchange hosts the Capital Markets forum in partnership with saudi tadawul. Yvonne man is at the event and joins us for more. Some of the headlines out of that interview you did . Yvonne she was very optimistic trade in fact, bonnie chan, the hong Kong Exchange ceo is behind me in a panel right now talking about the collaborations she sees with the middle east. But first and foremost, this is a time one hong kong needs new listings. And they need more investors. In particular when it comes to two weeks ago when we heard from the chinese regulator initiating support measures for the ipo market. Basically encouraging industryleading names to list here in hong kong. She says it brings her a lot of hope. And they have gotten a lot of inquiries. She mentioned about a hundred applications on the ipo pipeline so far. Here is more from our conversation with bonnie chan. I think what we want to focus on at hkex is first of all to play to our china strength grade really build on it. That is our trump card definitely. And then surrounding it, really three Strategic Imperatives that we are very focused on. The first one being our efforts to continue building the market vibrancy. And to create that network effect. What that entails is to bring more issuers, more investors and more products to the ecosystem. Yvonne you mentioned that. Your predecessor Nicolas Agustin talked about this great ipo pipeline coming. When you think this will materialize . As you probably know, only a few weeks ago on the 19th of april, the csrc issued five measures. Which will provide a lot of support to our Capital Markets. Three of which are very closely related to the stock market, including relaxation of the etf eligibility standards, inclusion of reits into the connect franchise, as well as inclusion into the stock connect. Also, there is an exciting one, which is the fifth one, which is to bring topnotch companies from the mainland to come and list in our market. I think all that is creating a lot of excitement. I will share with you that since the announcement of those five measures, we have received so many calls. You wouldnt believe, from potential issuers wanting to explore doing an ipo in our market. That is to add onto to the already quite robust pipeline. Yvonne how many ipos have been lined up since those measures . We have 100 companies, or applicants, in the pipeline already. With the latest measure, and that excitement and a lot of proactive this in terms of reaching out to us, i can really only see that building up. For us, obviously, we need the Market Conditions to also be more conducive to getting the ipos done. But what we have seen lately, especially the last two weeks of april, is giving us a lot of hope. Yvonne beijing mentioned they will support leading industry names. What is your interpretation of that . Are we going to get blockbuster names coming back to the city . First of all, in terms of sector, what we can do to complement the domestic exchanges in the mainland is to focus on the new economy. Thats what we have done very well since 2018. As you know, we issued a new chapter in our listing rules, chapter 18c, which focuses on what we call Specialist Technology. These are the sectors i think investors are most interested in at this juncture, including things like artificial intelligence, new energy, new materials, quantum computing. And so, while i really want to see more names coming, and i dont know whether they are only confined to the space, i have a feeling a lot of them will be on in the Specialist Technology space. Yvonne the big question is do those mega names include the likes of didi and saudi aramco sitting a second listing choosing hong kong as a destination. She did not put emphasis on individual names but certainly there is a lot of matchmaking going on at the Capital Markets forum. We you have seen this warming of ties between china as well as the middle east. In particular, they want to get more saudi investors into this market to potentially replace u. S. And european investors who have shied away from this market due to geopolitical tensions. How do you get access . Csop, they have one saudi etf that launched in november. We will speak to the ceo of the asset manager ding chen in a couple of minutes to talk about how things are going with that etf and what other opportunities are in store on it comes to saudi markets. Haslinda yvonne man will be right back. Plenty more ahead. Keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. Haslinda he told cnn that the potential loss of civilian life is quote just wrong. I made it clear that if they go into her office, they havent yet, if they go into office, i am not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with that problem. We will continue to make sure israel is secure in terms of iron dome with their ability to respond to attacks like what came out on middle east recently. Haslinda our Senior Editor bill faries joins us with more. Bill, what is the latest . You heard President Biden in the u. S. Holding up some of these weapons shipments. Not all of them, but weapons israel has wanted to get for a while, this is a package of almost 3500 foams of different sizes. It is definitely a warning shot to the israelis, and a breach in the relationship that coul

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