Tom good morning, im Tom Mackenzie in london, these of the stories that set your agenda. Ubs has a big earnings beat. This was slender says it expects the merging for Credit Suisse to be completed at the end of may. We will bring you an interview with the ubs ceo in an hours time. Stocks in asia follow the u. S. Higher. All my hopes the fed will cut rates this year. The yen weakens against the dollar after japans effects chief says intervention is needed if markets are orderly. Plus, israel projects a ceasefire proposal backed by hamas after the militant group agreed to the plan. Israel vowing to push ahead with military operations in rough. It is another big week on the earnings front. Ubs coming through. Decent beat in terms of net income and profit, continuing to look in terms of the interview we have a the ceo with any comments on the capital plans, we know the swiss governments plans around capital allocations and the requirements there are essentially for this lender. Coming through with a big beat in terms of net revenue, we will start there, net revenue for ubs coming in at 12. 7 billion, decently above the estimates of 11. 8 billion. In terms of net income, almost triple the estimates. Just shy of one point 8 billion u. S. Dollars versus the estimates shy of 600 million. Asset management was a modest miss. Return on tangible equity for ubs in the First Quarter was triple what was expected. An increase of 9 versus the estimates of 3 . Pretax profit, a very healthy beat coming through from ubs. Versus the estimates just shy of 1. 2 billion. Again, they expect the merger of ubs and Credit Suisse to complete on may the 13th first. We will bring you a conversation with the ubs ceo in just under an hour. At 7 00 a. M. U. K. Time on markets today. Stay tuned for that. On the earnings run over in italy, unicredit coming in top line. This is the redhead from the top lender up 40 . The redhead First Quarter net income coming with a beat for unicredit. 2. 56 billion euros versus the estimates of 2. 1 billion euros. Decent beat coming through. We look for lines on net Interest Income. 2. 5 6 billion is the top line in terms of net income. Net Interest Income and i i also coming in with a beat. 3. 5 8 billion above the estimates of three point five one billion. Modest feet in terms of net Interest Income. They are seeing in terms of the First Quarter net fees and commission coming in above the estimates, just above two billion in terms of force critter revenue above the estimates, six point 4 billion. Shy of 6. 4 billion euros. When you listen in on the call for unicredit. The outlook for net interest will be key. This is a market, this is a bank up 40 year to date. Goldman sachs expects 9 billion euros for this lender in 2024. Solid beat coming through. Earnings story will play into the market moves as we close in on that 8 00 a. M. U. K. Time open for these markets and it was an optimistic day, day of gains in the u. S. With the nasdaq 100 and the s p adding up side of over 1 on expectations the fed can go possibly two times in terms of the cuts coming through on the back of the softer jobs data. You have the big make cap tech names like nvidia and tesla performing strongly in the u. S. Session. European futures pointing to gains. Ftse 100 adding 89 points, for full one percentage point. We keep an eye on the commodities. Goldman sachs raising the outlook. S p futures currently flat after the gains of yesterday. Nasdaq futures and similar territory. Lets look across asset briefly in terms of what we are seeing across the treasury curve. One basis point move for 81 on the twoyear. Yields upandcoming and lower on the back of the softer jobs data. Expectations around the evolution of the fet expectations possibly two cuts this year. Japanese yen, little bit of weakness down 3 10 versus their comments from the fed from the effects official that intervention is not needed. 83 a barrel on brent as we get across the geopolitics of gaza and israel. Copper above 10,000 per ton. Goldman sachs raising their target from 10,000 to 12,000 on the supply deficit. Lets cross over to asia where avril hong is standing by with a gauge on the asian markets. How are the markets playing out today . They play out in a divergent fashion. If you look at japan and south korea, the nikkei playing catch up after a long weekend. In china, the equities are sliding, hang seng on track to snap a 10 second winning streak. Thats the news flow on the real estate friend. Toptier city relaxing some of these homebuying restrictions. This is a mixed bag and asia stocks. Flip the board because i want to take you down under where we see an interesting picture emerging. Investors bracing for an hawkish iba. We will find out more from the governor later this hour. This is taking a leaf out of the feds playbook last week. The take away shows we are likely to see a rate hike from the rba this year. Australian stocks extending gains as of the bonds. The aussie sliding toward 66 u. S. Sentences. Flip the board again. I want to draw your attention to what was the dollar. It has been edging towards 15 five as traders are refocusing on what we are seeing from the yield gap. That is the level we last saw on thursday. We are working on the assumption there were two rounds of intervention last week. We got verbal intervention from the currency chief saying theres no need for intervention of markets behave in an orderly fashion, but that hasnt help the currency. We are keeping a close eye on the earnings season in japan. This week we will hear from the likes of toyota and tokyo electron. We find out just how weak yen is playing into their results. Tom yen back in focus. Avril hong in singapore with the markets truck. To the ubs story, posting a big beat, its on the First Quarter net income. This was lenders on net income come in at 1. 7 billion dollars, well ahead of the 600 Million Dollars that had been expected. Another line crossing in the last minute from ubs. They cannot yet fully assess the capital effect from new swiss laws. We know they push back against the proposals coming through from the swiss government in terms of Capital Requirements that could cost them up to 20 billion u. S. Dollars on some calculations. Lets bring in bloombergs alexandria, top lines, what stood out to you from these numbers from ubs . Its a welcome returned to profit after two quarters of losses, so its a good start of the year for ubs, but at the same time they are cautioning the outlook for the next two quarters wont be so strong. They are predicting a small decline. At the same time, there is this big question mark hanging over the government proposal to help ubs to hold more capital. Could be around 20 million and its still not clear how much they will do. The swiss government has said it will publish proposals in the first half of 2025. Until that time, even if they say they have enough capital to continue its capital return plans to give back funds to shareholders, there is a big question, mark a big question mark hanging on the plans. Tom that will linger over ubs. They have reiterated that they can complete and stick to the 2024 capital return plans for this year, but as you say the question mark is over 2025. We expect that to continue. When it comes to integration. They reiterated they hope to get that done. What are the hurdles Going Forward in terms of costs, in terms of integration as we look to that process . Ubs is saying that this year will be the complicated year where the costs will come in. It will allow lowgrade clients into the ubs systems and then unlock more cost reductions and efficiencies. Until that happens we will have to see how much we have. Ubs said in the First Quarter it has already executed one billion cost reductions and expects 1. 5 billion more cost reductions to the end of the year. They are on track but they need to keep pushing to keep this execution is complex execution of the merger on track. Tom joining us from zurich on the back coming through from ubs. Thank you for the context coming through and what to look for. We will bring you a conversation that you wont want to mess with the ubs ceo in just under one hours time. At 7 00 a. M. U. K. Time on markets today. Israel has rejected a ceasefire plan backed by hummus. The proposal falls far from its necessary demands. Israel promises to continue military operations after warning civilians to come out of parts of that city. For more i am joined by Bloomberg News director in the region. A ceasefire in its entirety, where are we on those bank on those negotiations . It makes it more complicated. We could see their positions by hamas and israel. Israel will see a delegation for further talks but they are wrangling over minor bits of wording over particularly what this means for the longer term, does this pave the way for a full end to the warrior . Is it a sustainable calm . If they cannot agree on that, they cannot agree on the bigger stuff. We are at a very difficult point for the prospects of the ceasefire. Israel says it will continue its plan for defensive and route 5 regardless it needs to do that to try to eradicate hamas. We just got word that trips have gone into the rafah crossing troops have gone to the ross rafah crossing. There is no age of people moving through that important area and that is a conduit to go from egypt into gaza. Thats a cutting off of aid into gaza. You can see that these are really preparations going on for israel to start its offensive in lafayette in days, if not, weeks. Either way, they are going ahead and its really putting the pressure on the u. S. And others because they are running out of time to convince israel to agree to a ceasefire. Tom what is the u. S. Role because President Biden suggested this will be a red line, significant military operation without moving civilians would be a red line. Where is the u. S. Stand in terms of its pressure . U. S. President joe biden spoke again with the israeli Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu. Thats twice in a couple of days and said to him directly, if you do a big offensive in rafah, i will consider that. They have been strong on their views on the possibility of that offense. They are not stopping the supply of weapons to israel. They say its a Strategic Military ally and israel has the right to defend itself to do it needs to against hamas. What else can the u. S. Do aside from calling on israel to show restraint when it comes to civilians in that area. They wont cut off military aid to that country. Again, the question is about the level of u. S. Influence over israel or whether its using all the influence that it could. Tom fastmoving events unfolding in that region. Bloombergs news director giving us the latest and the contacts. Coming up on your day ahead. 6 30 a. M. , back to the earnings story. The germanybased chipmaker, those earnings coming through and we will speak to the cfo of that company, the slowdown in the auto ev market. The china exposure with those issues to be discussed with the cfo. Important course of the semiconductor market. At 7 00 a. M. U. K. Time, the focus switches to energy on the oil major that is bp with earnings crossing from that company at 7 00 a. M. U. K. Time. In the u. S. , the big one stateside, disney, those earnings crossing later today as well. Coming up, saudi oil giant, aramcos profit in focus at a First Quarter results out later today. We have a preview as opecplus continues with constrained supply. I will speak to the german the fence about the companys latest earnings and europes defense spending plans. That exclusive interview at 6 40 u. K. Time. This is bloomberg. Tom welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. Saudi arabia saudi aramco is set to release First Quarter results today. Analysts will watch payouts and profits, the oil giant has lowered its profit since the Second Quarter of last year in line with this opecplus cuts. Lets get the details and preview with middle east Energy Editor who is in dubai for us, what is the outlook there for profit and dividends from aramco . Good morning, tom. They are looking for a slight decline probably around 10 according to what the Bloomberg Intelligence estimates are and thats because aramco has had to cut production because of the opecplus cuts because of additional cuts that they may try to shore up this market and avoid a buildup of stockpile. Aramco is down than 9 billion euros a day and thats what oil prices relatively stable quarter on quarter between the First Quarter of this year and last year. We see movement on the price to help that out. On the dividend we are expecting that payout that has been previously announced. Theyve got that strong regular dividend plus a special dividend based on the 2022 bumper profits in the earnings from last year. That dividend is laid out and will be stable this year. Looking forward there will be room for more guidance on how that dividend is going to develop. Aramco has said they hope the base dividend will be progressive, meaning growing over time and it remains to be seen without that special dividend gets factored in and they will look in gardens guidance on that. Tom when it comes to reduce production and reduce profits on that front, what is that mean for the story for aramco . Quex capex is actually increasingly we have seen that cut of the plan to increase saudi aramcos Production Capacity to 13 Million Barrels a day, that plan was scrapped or delayed as aramco would like to have it, so they will stick with 12 Million Barrels a day and that frees up to put in other projects. It looks like you put a lot into the natural gas business. Theyve got some projects that were already underway toys that capacity, they will keep those projects going and that will make up for the natural decline of Oil Production so we will look for it to see where that goes, some savings over the project and they are looking to see where that extra cap acts extra goes. They are looking at it to go into the dividend to support the saudi aramco spending. We see them posting another deficit, so that dividend is important for shoring up those government funds. Tom bloombergs middle east Energy Editor with the set of the earnings. We expect it coming through from saudi aramco. Coming up, could xi jingpings visit to france help with tensions between china and the eu . What the two president s have, next. This is bloomberg. Regarding the palestine, israeli conflict, its a test of human conscience, the International Community must do something, we call for a sustainable ceasefire in gaza. At the same time supporting palestine to become a full member state of the united nations. Tom chinese president xi jingping there in the chinese eater weighed in on the israelgaza conversation on the public site state visit to france as he tries to reset ties with the eu. Who is standing by in paris covering all of the four us. Has there been any progress on the geopolitical front . You heard president xi calling for a ceasefire in gaza just as we saw airstrikes and the rougher region in gaza. Clearly nothing but success but macron also called for chinas support to try to influence the russian president Vladimir Putin and use beijings influence to try to end the war in ukraine. It is you repeated that china does not take part in this conflict, was not at the origin of the conflict, but did say they are going to start another round of mediation. However, the chinese president also warned that the eu should not start a new cold war with the eu and the u. S. , aligning their stance against china and russia. In fact, micron had an interesting proposal, which was to call for truth during the paris olympics, global ceasefire proposal, that was met with enthusiasm from president xi who said china and france would try to Work Together to try to bring ceasefire at the end of july after president xi returns from europe in a few days, the russian president will travel to china, so we will see whether this trip also has an influence in those discussions. Tom thats a geopolitics, what about the trade tensions between the eu and china, have they been addressed, at least to some extent . Not quite. He ursula was a part of the trail and it does trilateral meeting with president xi in paris in the morning. Ursula criticized chinas production surplus and see the eu was ready to use all trade instruments to protect itself. President xi immediately responded saying that china does not have any overcapacity issue, there was another official Chinese Ministry who said the Eu Commission had been sending the wrong signals with all these probes into the chinese ev market, into the chinese medical devices, but of course we have seen all these trade tensions and micron still has a firm tone but was using a more inclusive tone, trying to bring china back to the table of those trade negotiations and actually reminding president xi that the eu trade policy remains independent from the united states. So trying to distance the eu from the united states. There was no Major Business deals announced during that trip , only a few commitments on the cosmetic sector in aviation, but micron had a small victory when it comes to cognac. Because as you know, the chinese have started as a response to the chinese ev market, the chinese have started probing to the cognac sector. That was directly targeting paris and during the press conference with president xi, micron said that he was hopeful the chinese measures against cognac makers would be applied. Tom thank you very much. Russias president Vladimir Putin ordered the military to carry out combat drills involving Tactical Nuclear weapons ramping up his confrontation with the west as