Financial market. Lets do a check on how markets are faring. Avril, you get a since there is trepidation ahead with the humongous week ahead. Avril its all about the central banks, they will get the dot plot, for the fed and the boj. Ahead of all of that and of course the retail sales and ppi numbers out of the u. S. To get through later today, you can see theres not much appetite for risk in the equity space, particularly on the boj front. We will be watching closely the Wage Negotiations. So far theyve come in strong. Workers have gotten wage hikes they want, but durango is a big one to watch. We also had dovish comments from the boj governor that seemed to curtail expectations of an imminent move from the boj and cap gains on the yen. As you know, we havent seen much appetite for equities. Thats what we are seeing, broad picture, zoom in also about what we are seeing in china. Weve got some of those declines , among the tech names, those of the biggest drags today. Helping to support the csi 300, gains on copper related stocks as the commodity surges. We are hearing reports about how copper producers are mulling production cuts. Haslinda what a rally for copper stocks. The other is india. We saw a stunning selloff in small caps. We knew it was hot but few expected the selloff. Avril very hot. The runup since march last year, it has had a phenomenal time. We saw the small and midcap gauges for the bse, something more than 4 yesterday. It was the biggest decline in two years. With all of this froth in the market, you can imagine why the regulators are flagging that overheating. They are telling Money Managers to limit their purchase. Given how a lot of this has been because of retail participation, the concern is it could drag the broader markets. We saw the since exit down more than 1 yesterday, erasing gains for the month. Haslinda it is hot, hot, hot. The rally in india, is a finally cracking or is this a buying opportunity . Thats bring in our guest from blackrock. Tom, is it nerves . Tom i think theres clearly disparity going on between small caps, which have had such a huge run over the last year or so, versus the large caps. In the Chinese New Year outlook we did recently, we pulled india back to neutral just on concerns on evaluations and some of the drivers around retail investing. I still think india longterm, a good structural story, it cant go up a parabolic lee forever so maybe we need a reset. Still structurally, the growth story, the demographic story in india is interesting. I do think for investors will continue to buy indian equities. Weve seen quite a bit of outflow year to date in indian equities and for us at the moment, we are looking for indian bonds than equities. Haslinda is not just growth, its 8 growth. Given what we are seeing, should you be buying the debt . The dip . Or wait for correction to come . Tom it depend on investor outlook. Any investors are longterm holders. I think we could see a correction given where valuations are but is not that dissimilar to a lot of markets we are seeing. Valuations getting stretched, 8 growth in india is very appealing. The longterm structural drivers look very interesting and their Earnings Growth has been strong. I think any decent size correction for investors will be moving back into that market. Youre talking about liking indian bonds right now. What should you be picking up . Tom 7 is what im liking. [laughter] yeah, its pretty simple. You get a very good deal. We got this new inclusion process in the jp morgan em index, Foreign Investors very underway. In terms of correlations with other bond markets and equities, it does give good diversification, the portfolio. I think theres a lot to like. Haslinda overall the markets looking to the fed and what is expected from the fed next week. What are you anticipating and what are you hoping to hear . Tom it does seem, given some of the inflation data weve seen just this week, there is a pretty strong potential of the dot plot being moved to two rate cuts for this year. 322. What impact will that have . The fed is not expected to cut at this particular time but they will give indication as to the forward look on their dot plot and what the individual members expected if we moved to two that will impact markets. I think the u. S. Dollar will strengthen on the back of that. Weve already gone from six to three, so three to two, the impact im not exactly sure about. I think the a look is volatility on equities and growth, what is the actual drawdown impact on growth from gdp and earnings versus rates and inflation volatility that we had last year. Thats kind of how i am looking over the next couple of months. Haslinda are investors reassessing risk . When you look at gold, traditionally its a haven play, it is higher than what the dollar suggests it should be. How are you looking at risk right now . Tom theres a lot of disparities going on in the market. On the one hand you see Global Growth slowing, decelerating, exports coming down, inflation still a little sticky. On the other hand you have pockets that continue to move up. Mega cap seven is the big one. India, bitcoin, gold. Gold is something we like along with commodities as kind of a safe haven play. If you look at the disparity between Central Bank Buying of gold and etf buying, theres a huge gap. At some point i think Retail Investors will come back into gold markets been i like gold markets. I have liked gold all year and i continue to like it. There are risks in the market and i think investors need a diversified playbook. Haslinda if there was one rotation to make what would that be . Tom its hard to call but in terms of the mega cap u. S. Equities we are talking about rotation. We are not seeing get out of u. S. Equities but there is a case to take some rotation in those markets into some of the lower exposures or peopleweighted type of exposures. If you look at the Earnings Growth, its been very strong, but protected things ruth Earnings Growth for some of those companies, several of the companies are 30 come i think thats very optimistic. Particularly going into the second half of the year, we have election risks. Will there be some kind of ai regulation . We dont really know. Now is the time to start looking at possibly rotating some of that portion of your portfolio away from some of those tech names. Haslinda tom, hang tight could hang tight. Coming up, a deep dive into indias financial structure. Bernstein says is time to switch out of private sector stocks. Plus, a battle raging in new delhi about who invented butter chicken. The debate later this hour. Keep it here with us. This is bloomberg. So this is pickleball . Its basically tennis for babies, but for adults. It should be called wiffle tennis. Pickle yeah, aw whoo these guys are intense. We got nothing to worry about. With e trade from morgan stanley, were ready for whatever gets served up. Dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. Id rather work on saving for retirement. Or college, since you like to get schooled. Thats a pretty good burn, right . Got him. Good game. Thanks for coming to our clinic, first ones free. Haslinda welcome back. The fate of an app used by 170 million americans is in the hands of 100 senators. A bill passed by the house of representatives would ban tiktok in the u. S. Unless bytedance sells the video sharing app. It has an uncertain fate in the senate. What are the possible ramifications . Our guest is from deepwater asset management. We know its late where you are. Good to have you with us. What are you reading into the vote . Gene this is an 84 agreement from the members of the u. S. House and that is unprecedented. Its so unprecedented it almost reads like a typo. To answer your question, what we should read into that is there is clear political momentum to do something about tiktok in the u. S. As you mentioned, it now goes to the senate, its been referred to as an uphill battle in the senate, uphill in part because it will probably take somewhere between two and three months before the senate actually takes a vote, if they do take a vote on this. As far as how that will play out is undetermined. I believe given the momentum coming out of the house that this could get through the senate. If i may keep playing this forward, if in fact that does happen, it goes to President Bidens desk and therefore it would likely get signed into action. Any good thriller of course it have a hanger and the hanger is the but, and that is the next president ial election. If we keep playing this forward, if the next president is trump, he would likely do what he could to reverse what happens. That gets us back to this point, i will bring this together with what my probabilities are. I think theres a 25 chance that tiktok gets a in the u. S. , wifi percent chance of divestiture is forced and 25 chance a divestiture is forced and 50 chance of nothing happening. Haslinda if it gets sold, who are the potential buyers . Gene its a pretty short list. Lets first talk about what the valuation would be. If you use a similar revenue multiple debt metatrades at, its seven times revenue. Tiktoks business implies about 100 billion. Thats real money. There is considerations around which companies can get that money together. Those companies, activisions former ceo has talked about putting together a group, i think he has enough strength to do that. The focus on meta, that probably happened just because of regulatory there could be other corporate buyers too. The irony is the original potential buyer of tiktok in the u. S. , this is four years ago, was walmart. Walmart was originally interested and it got blocked through some of trumps actions at the time. It will have to be obviously a bigger buyer, doesnt have to have issues around regulation, is probably around the 100 billion valuation. If i am bytedance there is threat of divestiture or get banned, i would probably take the 100 million and run. Haslinda we know that china will be up in arms, no doubt. Wondering your take should tiktok be banned. Gene this is one i want to respectfully pass on. I can maybe speak for one piece of the conversation related to tiktok, the impact on teenagers and the youth. Instagram, the average time spent per day is about 40 minutes. Its about 70 minutes for tiktok. These products are highly addictive. From my perspective, to step outside of the geopolitical pingpong match related to this, and just say i think there needs to be better curves in terms of better curbs in terms of the usage if this does get through the senate. Haslinda are bytedance likely bytedance are likely to challenge this on legal grounds. What challenges are likely to face . Gene the reason this has been referred to as an uphill battle despite the momentum out of the house is the senators are looking at this more of what is the governors role in terms of regulating business more broadly . The state of montana has tried to put effectively a ban and that was overturned in the courts. There has been some precedent that essentially this is meddling in an area where lawmakers should not, it is not the senates job. There are other governing bodies to regulate business. I think thats probably the piece and of course it comes to free speech. There is the side of the free speech piece that would likely and up and there is the side of the National Security piece of the tiktok conversation. Thats where i think this ultimately would get grind through the courts, its about the National Security side. Haslinda we appreciate you being with us. Thank you so much. Lets bring back thomas from lack rock. Blackrock. Just when chinese tech stocks are beginning to rebound, how are you making sense of whats happening and the impact of it . Tom i was panicking a bit i thought you would ask me about tiktok and i dont have that app. In terms of the view on china tech, for us, the preference, if investors do want to be in china at this point is for china offshore, china tech and the reason is the shortage has been so high. What we saw last month in february was the First Time Since july last year for investors had moved back into china. Coming up with a view around chinese equities is difficult. Theres a lot of upside risk and downside risk. For us, what we are talking to clients about is if you wanted play this technical rally at the moment, you do want to be in the offshore space, super liquid etfs where you can play that rotation quite tactically view i think for now, most investors would still be neutral but given the amount of selling we seen the last few years, theres a lot of underweight in the market, a lot of Short Interest that i think is starting to get covered at the moment. Haslinda the thing is, tech has premuch lead the rally, csi up 3 from the low in february. What do we do with tech . Sit on the sidelines and wait for clarity . Tom i think thats what has been happening. Over the last month, investors have moved back marginally, a little bit is a rotation from india back to china but i think a lot of it is even the risks to the upside and downside, investors dont want to be to massively underweight at this point, particularly with whats happening in the u. S. And going into elections and all these things happening in the market. I think investors want to cover some of those shorts and be relatively neutral. Im not seeing a lot of investors going massively long china at this point, but given whats happened the last couple of years, the valuations and these kind of things, i think being underweight is a little more of a risk. Haslinda youve referenced the 11 of the election several times. How big of a risk is that for the markets . Tom the answer is i dont really know, but what i do know is four years ago, thats all anyone was talking about and markets were stunning to prepare for volatility. We sell rotations into different sectors and that can of thing and health care was a part of that. This year i havent really seen anyone particularly talking about it from Asset Allocation perspective. Again, im not an expert but if trump does get back into the office, you will see geopolitical tensions start to flare up again and the talks about tariffs increasing in what they will mean for asian economies i think will increase. Again, im not a politics expert but i see that in the second half of the year, more focus going into that. Haslinda i appreciate that view. Japan, how much upside can there be for the nikkei to 25 225 . The yen strengthening further could put a lid on where it goes from here. Tom i expect the jpy to strengthen further, ive been saying that since we were at 150. Its not a particularly complex for mila, but the fed complex formula, but the fed, pretty much every other economy will be cutting rates, the boj will be raising rates. Given the mess depreciation we saw in jpy and we saw the carry trade narrow, i think investors will start to buy jpy again. I think if you look at investing in japan and phases, i think phase one we are getting to the end of that now. Investors were underweight for many years. We saw a lot of Structural Reforms coming through. For investors have moved back in. Phase two is about can you buy jpy, active funds and sectors . I think phase two has to be driven more by the 7 trillion u. S. Dollars sitting in currency and cash deposits and japan. I think it will be more of a domestic driven story. I think we start to see pullbacks. Think Foreign Investors will continue to buy it. In terms of the index waiting weighting, it will go up. But i think phase one is coming to the end and now we look at phase two. Haslinda great to get your thoughts today. Thank you so much for your insights. Lets do a check on some miners on the back of the rally overnight and expectations that perhaps china may be putting a lid on its output among smelters. Mmg up or than 7 . Gains for other players and asia, including one company up more than 7 . Keep it with us. This is bloomberg. Were you worried the wedding would be too much . 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Also gain for hyundai, up more than 5 . Plenty more ahead, keep it with us could with us. This is bloomberg. Haslinda welcome back. China markets heading to lunch. It is hard to sustain recent gains. Csi 300 down about 1 10 of 1 . Country garden missing that payment, vanke downgraded to junk. Market concerns at the forefront. Mlf tomorrow, but if there is a cut it could provide a muchneeded boost. Csi 300 index in negative territory. Looking at where we are in terms of japan, coming back from lunch. A big week for the boj next week. Avril has more. Avril its a matter of will it or wont it