This week alone up 33 basis points. Tom this week alone, history made. I think you will see over the weekend, how do we go back. Maybe we go back to 1870. The summation of four weeks of moving his history making. Jonathan need to look at the curve as well how things involved evolved. Lisa that to me is what i looked at, the fact that it moved to the opposite direction of what people thought. The long and would move down to the front and the front and would move down to the long end and you would get a flat or lower curve. Yesterday fed jay powell said it does not seem to be inflation, it is something else. It doesnt seem like we are overly restrictive. There seems to be a fear in his not only in their control. That is sort of a people are pricing into the market but still theres a chance of another rate hike. I do not know whether that matters. You saw the yields go higher after that speech. Jonathan policy is not too tight. Tom yeah, it is getting restrictive. We look at the numbers 23 discipline points decimal points. 2. Jonathan this equity market has struggled this week to be clear. A twoweek winning streak on the s p. Lets go through the price action together, crude going to a second week of gains. Wti crude up 1. 45 . Lisa the fed speaker today includes Patrick Harker at 9 00 a. M. , cleveland fed president loretta mester. I wonder if they create this idea perhaps we are not overly perspective. 12 00 p. M. , this is going to be contentious. President biden is meeting with charles michel. The second u. S. Eu summit since President Biden took office. This comes at a time with incredible divisions within these allies, i am curious how that dovetails into some of the work conversations. In terms of earnings, i am interested in Regional Bankers that i am and some of the big banks. We hear from some of the bigger names that have had trouble. Bank of california, which required pac west. We deal with comerica, huntington and a whole host of others. Does this give a clearer reader on the u. S. Economy than anything you saw in the u. S. Economy . Tom you are right. This is a huge deal. What is interesting to me is i want to go the first week of february, that is going to be smart. Jonathan bank of america is not the bank of america. Right . Lisa they do not cater to the average american. They basically have free money that they could use for other things. That is not a luxury that a lot of the rituals have. Have appeared jonathan the jonathan the president addressing the nation. They both want to annihilate neighboring democracy. Jonathan a 15 minute Oval Office Address for a formal request that congress provides 100 billion in resources. John, that is right. That is the big news in israel as well. The request for a bite and we understand 100 billion must biden we understand will hundred Million Dollars 100 million. 60 million is for ukraine. 14 billion four is really. 10 billion for humanitarian aid. We hear him about cautioning israel, how they proceed in this mentioning 9 11. Also mentioning the palestinian come just because hamas has forced this attack does not forfeit the palestinians to live freely and live without danger. 14 days within this into this and the aid is still not crossed. Tom we talked to a streaming screaming eagle yesterday. What are the military people telling you, the media in tel aviv . The mood music we should sit on a friday is also a day that hamas has called for another day for rach across the islamic world. Last week we saw thousands took to the streets. Overnight we have more strikes in gaza, more strikes in lebanon. We had the israelis you back with the United States intersecting cruise missiles. Theres a small matter of a country that sits between israel, that is saudi arabia, which is where our attention turns over the weekend. Are there will be a piece summit held in cairo. The comforts of saudi arabia will be in attendance, so to the the conference of saudi arabia will be in attendance. The diplomacy that failed earlier in the week with biden. Lisa we have a better understanding of either has not been some ground invasion. Whether there is a feeling of israel trying to have some restraint not to claim some of these fires. Oliver this is a difficult question to answer. Bloomberg has done interesting reporting on this overnight. What have we heard from the israelis . Yesterday, the defense minister spoke to his troops. He said, very soon you will see what gaza looks from the inside. However, the rhetoric around what this military encouragement will take has shifted. How much influence has the United States had in terms of shaping that and digitally delaying it. Our reporting, we understand that the u. S. Is involved in these discussions than it ever has in the past and reducing civilian casualties but also the question of, what next. After hamas conversation, the United States is still very much in the conversation. Jonathan great work. We will catch up with you a little later this morning. The u. S. And a euro are still pushing to open humanitarian aid into the territory. What do see, the border between egypt and gaza still closed. Lisa it was supposed to be open this morning. There was an agreement with u. N. Officials going to be trucks and making sure everything was ok on everybody sides. What is the holdup . We do not understand who is the main obstacle at this point. Jonathan the usada military bases in iran and syria increasing the under attack u. S. Military bases in iran and syria increasing the under attack. Tom getting out front in a war that is believed to come as soon as this weekend. It is the august of august oddest sequence. Jonathan talk to me about the president s of the United States and whether he can keep his party together. Wendy i think you made a strong speech last night. He reverted to a lot of the things we have seen from other president s when there is conflict. America stands for particular things, principles and we also have experience with direct terror attacks. We also made some mistakes. I think that is one of the important lines in the speech. We got as angry as er for 9 11, we went in and we made mistakes. We earned we got as angry as you are for 9 11, we went in and we made mistakes. We urge you to not make mistakes. Tom we were weaned on greg pak on 12 00 high, we are so removed from any framework of war we have with this cabletv war. You have a huge perspective on this. How do we handle a cabletv war of the medianews, media headlines immediate news, immediate headlines, immediate imagery . Wendy that was not very long. It was also the first one that was visual, televised live all the time. We do fill removed from this content in america. Any onsite domestic terrorism that comes from any support from israel or to many civilian deaths in gaza. This is going to hit home. This will fit the American People in some way shape or form. President biden is trying to prepare the American People, the idea we have to stick with our allies and we do not want to make the same mistakes. This has made the world dangers and would not only need to be in high alert dangerous and would not only need to be on high alert. Wendy this is purely regional concern in the state of michigan. Most of all a swing state in 2024. They have a large arab population, palestinian population. The congressman from that area is palestinian, that is the state he needs to win. He cant have a Party Working with him. A year from now this is a real problem for him so he has to tread carefully. If the civilian death in gaza goes sky high, it does create a problem. This is a almost 85yearold man, he is doing what he needs to be what he thinks needs to be done today and the next day. He is not like any other president looking ahead to election concerns. He is really someone to deal with the crisis today. That makes them hard to predict because it is nothing like loosing before. Him hard to predict because it is nothing like we have seen before. Jonathan blaming israel for the blessed of the hospital earlier this week. Wendy blaming israel for the bombing of the hospital earlier this week. What do you make of that . Wendy we are learning now, it is likely not to come from israel and may be the death count is lower. It is still a horrific death count. She is going to continue to do this. This creates domestic problems within the Democratic Party. The republicans in the Jewish Community have been in line. Now the house in disarray, no speaker and unable to pass this aid package for israel, democrats have a opportunity to regain some other momentum with the Jewish Community that have been more supportive of republicans. These tweets in this congresswoman may grow throw a wrench in that kind of effort. Jonathan thank you for the update. Tk, that tweet is still up. The responsible party for the blast is not israel. Yet, a tweet is still up from a sitting congresswoman in the United States blaming israel, an ally of the United States. Makes sense enough for you . Tom the scale of the size of her audience. Look at Pure Research a new jersey. It is a little audience. Jonathan alex fraser of blackrock of this market. Equities negative 3. 0 . This is bloomberg. captivating music the first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. but it can be passed on to the next generation. explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. Its possible. With james hardie™. We have seen rates moving up and down a lot. I think we need to let this play out and watch it. Does it feel like policy is too tight right now . I would have to say no. A typical bed cycle would leave you have five or 6 . This is a typical fed cycle would leave you at five or 6 . My guess is, it would be somewhere in the middle. The committee is proceeding carefully. Jonathan the Federal Reserve jerome powell, we are proceeding carefully. From new york city morning, good morning. 1 on the s p. Tom we mentioned this before. You look at equities, bonds, commodities, it would be a lot of analysis. We will talk about that later. Brent popping through to a 93 93 level. Every single weekend we analyze this work bloomberg does best. We can analyze it, losses. Jonathan i am with you on the losses. We are talking about losses of Something Like 50 . In some jurisdictions and countries more than that. Tom lisa, what they express do yesterday . Why . Lisa companies are in better shape. Yesterday you seen higher still subdued based on where people thought yields are. Tom i looked at it. It hasnt moved. Lisa if you actually try to do that, you are not going to get any. Tom the answer is, i was shocked. Highyield hasnt moved out. Lisa corporations are in better shape. We are going to look to israel and Eastern Mediterranean and. Also Pay Attention to the markets. Jonathan tom brian, i have got eight ways to go on the bond market. Look at a price and tell me what the damage is that has been brought to . Brian this has been a challenge. This is supposed to be a year which the bond market was going to be better than it was last year. Last year was one of the worst years we have seen in the bond market youre one of the biggest concern is inflation expectations. The question Going Forward, how strong is this economy . Does it warrant yields above 5 . I still believe we are likely to see lag effects slowdown, which would suggestively be to near stabling and starting to to near stabling and starting to come lower. Tom invesco has a rich portfolio of different types of fixed income, including loans and leverage loans. Are there shadows out there that invesco sees things like leverage and fixed income that we cant observe but you know it is there . Brian the fundamentals in the Corporate Bond markets are quite reasonable to the conversation you were just having. I just tried the bramwell o function. You look at corporate debt to profitability, we are not a troublesome levels. The cfos were paying attention. Generally at that lowering borrowing cost. It does not seem to be a fundamental issue in the credit markets. What it is is a reset in yields that is driving valuations lower. Lisa where is the haven . Do assess traditionally thought of risky servo better havens serve better havens than the u. S. National debt . Brian i do not think we will have National Challenges in the u. S. Government. There is clearly a reset with regards to what will the world be. Ultimately, the longer end will start to moderate. There are some other mixed factors where the growth looks a little positive. I would expect the long great to to come in. They are hiding in at money markets. It is nice to get five and a half percent without doing anything. You have been happy with any type of reset. At some point, if the Federal Reserve has two easy, which the market expects next year, you would want to go out to further maturity and look to those Corporate Bonds. I do not think enough are paying attention for the fundamental strength of the Municipal Bond market after all of the support for the federal government following the government. Lisa we seem to see signs were people reach that for point, where people start to think of reinvestment in a way. This weekly sting outflows for money market accounts and inflows to u. S. Government bond funds. Brian i think we should be nearing the inflection point. Speaking to investors, what i am hearing, particularly from the Financial Advisor committee community, they would like somebody to help their clients to move off of money markets. They understand historically when you invert a yield curve 2006, you are better off going further out. It is a hard thing to explain right now to the individual investor who maybe have their own Bank Deposits and just wants to cancel a shortterm 5 . Tom you have new cash deployed coming to you by cash or equities . Brian it depends on what you are looking to accomplish. I would buy equities. I think they will move directionally in the same way. You start to see the weaker Economic Data or the more moderate Economic Data then you are likely to see the peak rate environment merge. When we look at an environment where we already had peak inflation, you get peak rates, peak tightening, historically that creates a nice place for both stocks and bonds. Jonathan that is what he is looking for. Tom i do not really want i just looked at one of the major bond funds. This is a vanguard product. Everybody grandma everybodys grandma owns it. You made some income along the way, your opening the envelope. John tucker has a 201 k and he has looked at the damage. In retail you are getting hammered. Jonathan we are getting conflicting information. Bank of america is talking about a consumer slowdown. Lizzie latest on look at the latest on Consumer Discretionary spending. Netflix hike in prices. Tesla, the cut in prices. Lisa there are all of these different cycles that are playing out and putting it together is challenging. Economist there was a monthly survey that came out today showed economist are boosting their growth expectations. They are reducing a chance of recession. They are talking about an annualized three and a half percent of gdp growth in the u. S. For the Third Quarter. We are talking about accelerating. Tom some people are talking a five handle on that. They have percent. All adults are talking 5 adults are talking 5 . Jonathan i called at the threemonth rolling recession. Just a threemonth rolling recession. Tom a two and 20 pa yout. If youre trying to get a view of the whole organizational Financial Health and youre trying to do that through multiple systems, that makes it very, very cumbersome. Its not just tech, its not just people. Its how they Work Together to provide that experience to the customer. As a finance organization that is what you want to do. Jonathan heading towards a week of losses on the s p. We are negative a third of the s p. We are down 0. 4 of 1 . Lisa if netflix is represented it seems like the fundamentals are pretty good. Jonathan ryan leavitt is talking about planning the recovery to the recession. Did you notice that in the last 10 minutes . Tom i got upset yesterday. We never seen this. We had guests that have narratives that is about rationalizing the great moderation. Available evidence, the great moderation is over, even though chairman powell spoke against that yesterday. Lisa i had people some slack because they come on the show and come up with a narrative and they have a range of abilities that the model is tied to. This is my since. It is a very difficult moment to come up with a narrative. Youre not going to be right. Even if you get the narrative right, you are going to get the market wrong. People need to adapt and adjust. Corporate america adapts and adjusts. Let me just tell you. I am feeling a little frustrated to some of these price moves that are not understood. Jonathan it is difficult to describe a narrative to what has taken place to the bond market. This week cycle highs across the curve. 10year getting there. 499 20 on the 10year. Tom do you believe we have a 250 yesterday with all of the hoopla . Jonathan lets finish on crude. Up by a little bit more than 1 . Getting back towards 94. Tom the moving average study of what it was well over 100. It is an approximation. 111 is the feeling of Higher Oil Prices we had a couple of years ago. Jonathan israel striking targets in israel and lebanon as the israel hamas war continues. This comes as intercepted missiles. Just last night President Biden making the case for more funding for israel and ukraines efforts. Why does this matter to america .