The upside. This is down to wall street, partly traders getting wages on that. The fed hiking rates. This whole talk of chinese stimulus is rekindling some of that risk sentiment. We are talking aboutas far as the bond market, we have a steady picture for treasuries. Weve got the 10 year yielding 4. 6 , where we were yesterday. Weve also got an open in thailand, having a look at bangkok and seeing what is at the start of the trading day. Its a by. 25 . Seeing a pushback taking place with the recent stimulus plan. 15 billion handout in thailand from the new prime minister. Some of the Rating Agency suggesting that if they dont get growth out of that, they may be looking at a downgrade. Its about digesting that, its continue to strengthen. It by nearly one barth in the last week. The fed speak, it is center stage. Speculating that the central bank will hurd well head to another pause as far as Interest Rates go. We are on track for a soft landing. Inflation has come down quite a bit. The labor market is strong. Maybe we can get inflation all the way back down and avoid a deep recession. That is what i would call a soft landing. So far, it is looking more favorable. I think our policy rate is at a sufficiently restricted position to get inflation down to 2 . I dont think we need to increase rates anymore. If the markets in the case recently, bond yields have tightened financial conditions have tightened, indicating financial conditions broadly have tightened. Well, if that is tight, maybe the fed doesnt need to do as much, that is why said depending on whether it unravels or whether the momentum in the economy changes, that can be equivalent to another rate hike. Implications for these massive geopolitical events on our economy are very uncertain. The first mechanism by which geopolitical events, whether it is russia invading ukraine or the hamas, attack on israel the first mechanism that that gets back to america is through commodity markets. Rishaad of course there is more fed commentary on the way. We will be hearing from the atlanta fed president , and the fed president , they will all be due to streak for the federal open Market Committee meeting wednesday in the u. S. A bit later on today. Lets get to what the markets are making of that and more, we will get to the analyst strategist. Lets start on the market movements here. Not really the fed minutes but whats also look at the cpi release too and what the whisper number maybe. We are likely to see some sort of improvement in cpi numbers. Less of an impact from cpi and inflation coming down. Offering markets another sign of reprieve and also leaving treasury yields drifting lower as a result. If we get any sort of upside surprise that undoes what the market has just recently done in terms of coming off aggressively on yields and that will be the Biggest Surprise for markets as of now. We have heard from fed officials repeatedly is that rates are on hold. But, we still have the fact that rates are going to stay higher for longer which we have to remember is what initially caused the initial selloff. Yes we get a temporary reprieve but that does not unwind the fact that we will be in an environment where rates will stay higher for longer. Rishaad talk about reports about stimulus on the way in china. Can they afford it, given where gdp is . What is it likely to look like . If you look at it from face value and we are looking at what we have heard so far, and what we have heard so far is the fact that it is going to be focused on Infrastructure Spending. That is disappointing. We are not focused on the issues at hand, the fact is that the property sector has to weigh on sentiment and the consumer in china. So, if youre just targeting it on Infrastructure Spending the market will ask itself what is this actually good for . The only thing that we can say is, yes you get an initial reaction, but at the end of the day once you start thinking about the potential impact, that impact is very limited, and very similar to some of the drip feed we have seen so far from chinese authorities. So, at the end of the day, it looks like the market is going to be very disappointed with just yet more Infrastructure Spending. Rishaad thank you very much, indeed. Weve got our analyst there. We have news. This goes to stimulus there as well. The september retail sales up 5 year on you, that is according to the association. What this may mean is not a recovery. People are not able to get out to many parts of china this time of year. We have evs doing well with the nio 5. 75 , the stocks getting great gains. Auto stocks are gaining because of reports of easing car loan rules as part of the stimulus package. This weve got china doing this and also raising in turn is the budget deficit, meet its growth targets if you will. We have that as well. We have eric with us from bloomberg economics. All right, tell us a bit about the contours of this and how it will play out, and if it will be spent on infrastructure. Theyre so much infrastructure built. We have bridges to nowhere. Could it be deployed in a better fashion and perhaps local government where it is needed most . One trillion grand, it is almost not huge. We dont think its the stimulus the market is expecting, but it is something that can help the economy. The bottom line is it decreases the transit and the government in missing the 5 target. Given we are in the final quarter of this year, we did calculations. The impacts would be more available next year. So, the shock model on bloomberg terminal, this year it is one trillion boost, it will probably only be. 2 of gdp. Next year it could be. 5 gdp. Just like you said, it is mostly Infrastructure Spending, which we see some decreased efficiency on that type of stimulus. In terms of the broad growth support, it is a signal that they are not done from the government side. They are waiting to do more in order to meet the growth target. Rishaad what about lets talk about what Goldman Sachs has been saying. We have a gdp ratio of 360 . Its huge. This would move the dial with that. Further Government Bond supply, perhaps this is what they are saying. Their conviction, after a 24 basis point rrr cut, and a 10 basis point policy cut in the fourth quarter. People have been urging authorities there to do that. Going on to say this as well, what do you make of this . Yeah. It makes sense. One interesting point of the news yesterday is that this time it is the Central Government. Who issued the bonds we were expecting local Government Special bonds. It seems like a sign that the government is more worried about the leverage of the local government debt. The Central Government is willing to take more leverage this time instead of putting more burden on the local government side. That is another part of efforts the government is trying to dissolve the debt burden, at least on the local government side. Rishaad local government is one thing. Local mover meant government got most of their revenue from leasing. The Property Companies this is the epicenter of the problem. How to address this . What a stimulus package to anything to help these . They dont have the money. What the government can do is coming from the Central Government, that is the solution. Rishaad well, we shall see. Eric, thank you so much, are bloomberg economist. Well tell you what we have coming up, we will look at data out of india, showing the economy setting into a sweet spot. Weve got teresa john from newmark bank institution. Taking a look at Investment Strategy and the ongoing volatility. We speak with wey fook hou of dbs group. This is bloomberg. 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If we get that it could perhaps move the dial to some extent, it depends how it is deployed. Where are you with china in terms of your Investment Strategy . Well china and asia has been very compelling. I think a lot of these slow growth, not so good news have been factored into the price. Whatever announcements on fiscal stimulus would be until then. Were position in china but to and no exposure we need to see more concrete stimulus packages, not just on infrastructure. Because of valuations, there is, to some degree a large enough safety. Rishaad so, im just doing a bit of research, you are employing an advocate, illiquid plus strategy, prioritizing markets and a barbell as well. How would china fit into that equation and how would the other Asset Classes played in . The barbell push is really on a balance. We want to income generate assets. Investment grade bonds give you a very nice 6. 5 . We think that part if you have cash flow and therefore resilience across the entire portfolio. On the other end of the portfolio, we want to buy quality Growth Companies. If you look at the markets today, investmentgrade bonds is about 6 to 7. 5 . You put a historical risk premium youre talking about 10 , high for equity, Earnings Growth. You have to scan across all of the various sectors, you will probably end up with more secular Growth Companies like technology. We like to select companies from this that originated, the innovators, the disruptors and adapters. These are the companies that would really given Earnings Growth that is above or clearing the hurdle of above 10 . Rishaad lets talk about the u. S. I think you are overweight here. How are you looking at the directions of the bond market. Is this a time you could be seeing a bottom . Or is there another down leg for treasuries in particular . The bond market has really done the job of the fed, up by 100 basis points, resulting now in the fed not having the urgency to really raise rates in the near term. For Growth Companies, growth equities. Having said that i think most importantly you need to buy quality growth. Big Cap Companies that continue to be profitable, generate near growth and earnings and free cash flow. To build a portfolio that is resilient, come generators, and secular growth equities. The equity risk premium is minimal now. Perhaps it is a nobrainer to look at that instead but if you were looking at equities. I think you are looking at idea, an acronym you have come up with innovators, adapters, disruptors. They are companies that will be continuing to be evaluating change in the way we live in. Examples will be the headphone, the smartphones, the Cloud Computing companies platforms. These are also disruptors. They disrupt the status quo. These are big winners. Ai is another, i would say catalyst of this. Really phone companies. We also included not Just Technology related in this frame world, we have adapters, they are traditional companies, brickandmortar, but able to adapt to the digital economy. Companies that can pivot to that. Ai will be figuring this too. Also touting private equity and private credit for resilience, but it is a tough nut to crack that one. If you look at it long term, it returns from private equity, private debt, pretty much, not beta or market direction driven. The gps run these. They are not passive investors. They are actually corrective. They actually get down to the daytoday running of the company, to really help them increase efficiency, productivity and globalize operation. The retail coming from these funds are really driven. You add that to your portfolio bonds, then it makes [indiscernible] rishaad thank you so much for joining us. See you soon. He is cio of dbs bank. We had towards the chinese lunch break and the japan reopened. It is all green. sfx stone whcrng the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. Its possible. With james hardie™. Rishaad the middle east, the combined death toll of the hamas invasion of israel is 2000. The u. S. Is Russian Military assistance, calling the hamas assault an act of sheer evil. We will ask congress to take urgent action to fund or critical partners. The u. S. Has always also enhanced our military posture to strengthen our deterrence. We stand ready to move in additional assets as needed. Rishaad the Senior Editor is with us, where are we in terms of actions in israel as well as gaza. The thing is, it does seem as though the idfs Defense Forces are girding themselves for action in what is the most crowded places on earth. Right. Youve got to Million People who live in an area about the size of washington dc. There are signs that Israeli Forces are building basically a camp on the outskirts just across the border, ready to prepare for a Ground Invasion that could come anytime in the coming hours, days or week. That will be some very difficult fighting. From the israeli side, one of the things they really want to do was try to locate some of these underground weapons stockpiles. Some of these tunnels that have been built, all the way right up to the israeli border, the kind of have to go in if they are going to destroy those. Aerial bombardments dont get it. On such a densely packed area, it means that the potential for civilian casualties will become much higher. Rishaad well, you have antony blinken, the u. S. Secretary of state heading to the country, showing solidarity with the government and the people of israel. This fight over the next House Speaker taking place in washington and also that deal that they did, of course affect any broader aid package, does it not . Absolutely. President biden has said there is some eight on the way. But a broader package requires the house of representatives to be in session. The house was meeting last night. The republican members of the house were meeting last night. One member said there was probably a 2 chance that they would be able to settle on a new speaker by wednesday. That is not very optimistic outlook for them to have a speaker. There is still the way they can give the interim leader an opportunity to pass some legislation. There is one bill that would give israel an extra 2 million in immediate aid. The politics on the house side, on the republican side are really complicating this. It looks like that leadership fight is going to drag out, possibly for days. Haslinda rishaad now, markets are perhaps not that great. These things tend to be shortterm. But this one seems as though we could see perhaps the potential to become much wider conflict, give us a sense of what you are seeing. Yeah. I think the big question for markets, particularly oil is going to be iran, and whether israel or the u. S. , or other allies come to the conclusion that they were directly involved in planning and ordering this strike, or pushing for it to take place now. Iran has long been a supporter of hamas. The infrastructure that it has was billed by that. If they are seen as having been involved in this, that is when he start to get concerned that israel or other countries will take this fight directly to iran. That is where you have disruption of oil supplies. Iran is pumping it at levels it had not gotten to for years. That would be a Global Disruption that markets will be bracing for if this conflict widens. Rishaad thanks enough for that. Bill, our Senior Editor, checking over the conflict among israel. The Market Reaction and washingtons vow some to support the country. To more sensitive sectors. We have brent crude moving on the upside, holding onto the gains it had, which we saw immediately after the invasion, the attack of hamas. Brent crude up 4 since then, likewise new york crude as well. Were looking at the markets which are doing well. Energy stocks are helping to lead the msci asiapacific index to the upside. Also looking at what is happening with nearly all these Industry Groups higher in the session, for asian currencies. Indigenous currencies in this part of the world did come back to some extent. Overall it is about the Federal Reserve. Weve got traders dialing back these wages on the Federal Reserve in creasing Interest Rates, this year, perhaps delayed into the next. No venture from anybody saying they are going to be cutting anytime soon, that is perhaps putting a lid on the enthusiasm. You bring a lot back to civilian life. Leadership skills. Technical ability. 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