And that because your point on bonds. Right now we have the 10 year yield backing up six basis points on the week, up 14 basis points. The worst week for bonds going back to august. Bonds selling off. That pushes yields higher on the idea there is some kind of recovery happening around the stimulus. It is going to be interesting to see whether or not the 10 year yield can break out of this range. David we will have to watch that carefully. We knew the job numbers would not reflect all of the covid surge, but we did not expect them to be showing downward trend before the covid came roaring back. To take us through what the numbers may indicate we welcome douglas holtzeakin, president of American Action forum. He earlier served as director of the Congressional Budget Office as well as chief economist under president george w. Bush. Great to have you back with us. Disappointing on the downside. How much should we read into that . Douglas the real significant piece is on the Household Survey. This is a week jobs number, and some of it might be seasonal adjustment. We can always wait for another month and see if that squares out. The Household Survey showed a big decline in labor force participation, that is a troubling development. People whoillion simply have not come back into the labor force compared to february. That is a sign of the virus getting in the way of the supplyside economy, people cannot get to work, they cannot conduct economic commerce, so that is the real hit. David it is possible we aint seen nothing yet. These numbers were effective in the middle of november. Douglas the survey week was the week of the 12th. We expect a big spike after this, and you would expect in december a real impact from the virus. David what does this say about the need for further stimulus . That is pending in washington. There was some progress made yesterday. Maybe theres a compromise afoot. What does it say about the need for that . Douglas prior to this report there was a case to be made some Additional Support for the economy was necessary. It might not be stimulus but we have a lot of longterm unemployed, we have the expiration of the ui program at the end of the year, the rent and mortgage forbearance, there are headlines that are predictable headwinds that are predictable. This strengthens that case. One hopes it also changes the politics to move people towards getting over the finish line. That has not happened yet but i think these data should encourage lawmakers to get a deal. David theres a fair amount of talk about a k shaped recovery, some people doing better, some people doing worse. Does that carry over to jobs . Are a lot of jobs disproportionately on the lower income areas and minorities . Douglas yes. We can see that in some of the Realtime Data we have picked up recently. At the onset of the recession we saw a loss of Service Business in high income zip codes, but the workers in those service jobs were low income workers, and in the recovery we have seen the high income plays come back but the low income workers are not. It is disproportionately communities of color and low skilled workers and that is a troubling part of the recovery. David a good part of 2020 has been occupied with the backandforth between republicans and democrats about how much more stimulus is needed, with nancy pelosi starting at 3. 3 trillion, coming down off that number. We have Mitch Mcconnell saying 500 billion is enough. Did republicans have a point . What we have made a mistake if we put forward 3. 3 billion last may . Douglas the real issue is what is in the package more than the size of the package. You can always go back and provide additional funds if they prove to be necessary. It is really are you getting at the core elements. There is nothing we can do with money to get high individuals to go back to their services. They will not fly, go to hotels or concerts and it is safe. What you do have to do is replace the income of people who worked in those industries. That is a key issue. You have to do some things republicans are talking about in terms of business Liability Protections to get the economy to take off when the virus is gone. I think what is in it is more important than the size, and given what we have seen in the cares act, some of the money never went out, notably at the fed and the treasury. The size did not make a difference. It was what was needed. Yet the wrong things. David there is money that has not gone out. We keep hearing about that from the white house. I question why it has not gone out. It takes us to the backandforth between Steven Mnuchin and the senators about whether he should have asked for them asked for the money back from the fed. The numbers indicate they did not need that money. About halfese were 1 trillion of money given to the treasury to backstop facilities in the fed, lending facilities. Those facilities were necessary in march when they were set up. We saw spread spike, there was a norm liquidity in the market, and it was unthinkable to go into the markets and borrow. Set up a main Street Lending facility for firms, facility for states and localities and a variety of others for commercial businesses, and it worked beautifully. If you look now, even with the announcement the facilities are going away, there has been no increase in the spread. The markets are functioning perfectly and weve got no use out of the main Street Lending facility or the initial liquidity facility because they cannot get credit and wellfunctioning credit markets. These facilities have worked. They have done their job, but they do not need to stick around. David lets come back to the bipartisan proposal. We have Small Business money, a fair amount, 280 billion. States, 160 billion for plus money for education. Is it addressing the issues you think need to be addressed or at least will bridge us forward until a vaccine . Douglas i think that is exactly right. I think congress should pass this. I think they can get they should get ian a for the cares act. It is a bridge to the vaccine. It is probably six good months before widely available vaccines have done the trick, and we need to have support during those six months. David always a pleasure to have you with us. American action former president douglas holtzeakin. Coming up, the view from the front lines of the covid19 crisis. Dr. Marc boom, Houston Methodist Medical Center president and ceo. Ons is balance of power Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. We turned to Mark Crumpton for bloomberg first word news. Mark president Trumps CampaignPresident Trumps plan to campaign in georgia has sparked concern the president s efforts could backfire. Mr. Trump has repeatedly alleged widespread fraud cost him victories in georgia and other key states and he has disparaged the states most prominent republicans. Republicans fear that could divide the party and suppress votes for senator david perdue and kelly loeffler. The u. K. Is warning brexit trade worse, whereting officials accused the European Union of introducing new demands of the 11th hour. A spokesman for Boris Johnson told reporters time is in very short supply. Americas top Infectious Disease expert says there was never a question he would accept president elect bidens offer to services chief medical officer. Said yesold nbc he right on the spot. Dr. Fauci has urged rigorous mask wearing and social distancing practices that have not been followed at the white house. Joe biden says he will ask americans to commit to hundred days of Wearing Masks as one of his first acts as president. Next summers olympics in tokyo will cost at least an extra 2. 5 billion because of the covid19 pandemic and could go as high as 2. 8 billion. Fees to rebooke facilities and employ additional testing to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Pauls show the japanese polls show the japanese public is divided on whether to hold the olympics or postpone games further. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . David thank you so much. We always thought there would be a second wave of covid19 but im not sure all of us expected to come this fast and this hard. For a view from the front lines, we welcome dr. Marc boom, president and ceo of houston methodist, one of the most respected in the country. Great to have you with us. The last time we dealt with this last spring, it was a question of are we putting too much pressure on the hospitals. Where are we this time . What is the level of pressure on your hospital and the Medical Center . Dr. Boom we have been through a lot this year. In houston our biggest surge still remains june and july which was troublesome. Now we have up quite a bit. We are the highest level we have seen since the end of july when we are coming off that other search. To but that it that other surge. And delight we got up to about 850 beds being used. Right now were sitting at about 450. We had gotten as low as 140 in midseptember as we came back down. It has gone up significantly. We are concerned about the trajectory we continue to be on. David what about icu beds . I understand it is not a fixed number as you reallocate other facilities, but if we change the way we treated the disease so it is not as likely you will go into icu . Dr. Boom that is right. Even for what in houston was a second search in june and july we saw we used a lot less icu than we did in the early days, and we are using even less now as a percentage. That has been good. Thankfully icu capacity is still doing ok. Most of our Growth Continues to be in the acute care setting, regular beds with shorter lengths of stay. Patients who do need hospitalization are Getting Better quicker, and fewer of them need icu. When they get to icu we see some amazingly sick people, that is a key thing for people to understand. Have a bunch of people on think of it as an artificial lung machine they are on to do the work of their lungs because their lungs are completely wiped out. Those patients stay with us for and wed periods of time see a significant amount of mortality in that group. There are still sick people, but thankfully weve been able to prevent a lot of people, now we have good news on the front end with the antibodies in the outpatient setting, hopefully decreasing the number of people needing to be hospitalized. David talking about the capacity for hospitals, do we have a different and more dangerous situation today than we did in july. In the spring and the summer, it tended to be a specific location in the United States that was a hotspot. Right now it seems to be right across the country as you look at these maps. What does that say about the ability of one facility to help out another . Dr. Boom it is a very difficult situation. On one hand, what that means when we see the record numbers across the United States is by and large, we are seeing everybody has come up at the same time. There are obvious hotspots. Texas, el paso, the panhandle area are great examples of that. What we were able to rely on this summer, when we were in that limited area researching, lots of traveling nurses came in and helped extra staffing. The reality is most of those people have been distributed to hotspots at present, and as we continue to rise, it is not realistic to believe they will be there. That is a definite unique challenge we will continue to see as this continues to go up. Need to Work Together as a population to level off this curve, bring it back down and get to the light at the end of the tunnel when vaccines will begin kicking in. A lot of good news coming up, but it will be several months before we see the impact of that. We need to get through this winter together. Howthomas visibility much visibility do have into the future . 7 ,have positivity around and your r is 1. 15 . Dr. Boom that is across all of the texas Medical Center. At our institution we are higher on the positivity rate. It has been going up day after day, but at a less steep rate than what we saw in june. I take some comfort in that things have not shot wildly out of control. The flipside is because we have months ahead of us, they can still get to that same endpoint or worse if they keep ratcheting up. I attribute that to the fact we are doing a much better job for masking in our society in houston. In june there was so much debate and not many people wearing them. There is still discussion and debate and misinformation. What we are seeing is unstructured environments where people let their guard down we see the virus spread. Often times social events, events at homes, gatherings of individuals. There is a structural environment, a hospital or a school. We have to have the patience and the vigilance, we have to see the fact that a few months out, the light at the end of the tunnel is there. We have to make sure we steel ourselves to a tough few months and a few months where we all make mutual sacrifices to protect each other. David you have told us how important it is to wear a mask. We now have the president elect of the United States saying he will say for the first 100 days of his presidency he would like all americans to wear masks. Does that make sense . Dr. Boom it makes complete sense. From been urging masking the beginning. The medical community frequently got it wrong. That is part of the challenge we have had very early on. Youve heard consistent messages and then building and building evidence since the april timeframe across the country. We saw this in houston. When we put the mask order in place when things were wildly out of control and we had it in place on july 3, we crested and came down and we came down to low levels. We can get this in control if we have people adhere to those best practices. They are the next best thing to a vaccine. While we are starting to vaccinate in the next couple of weeks, it will take a long time to get everybody in the population, and certainly to dramatically change the data max we see the dynamics we see. David there is light at the end of the tunnel. We know how long the tunnel is or how bright the light is . With the pfizer vaccine, you need two doses how long is it between the doses . Dr. Boom with pfizer it is a three week period. If you get the vaccine today, three weeks from now you would get the second vaccine. Realistically, from what the experts are telling us, youre talking for immunity three or four weeks after that. Roughly what i am telling people and what we are looking at is if we get you vaccinated around the 17th of this month, which we think is very possible for many of our staff, you are looking at valentines day when you would have a likelihood of full immunity. It is not a golden ticket. That is one of the important messages we have to make sure everybody hears. Until we dial this back and get to vaccines at an extremely low level, masking and social distancing will be necessary. Lets say i may have gotten a vaccine or you may have gotten a vaccine, it should not give you the license to go places, be without a mask for a variety of reasons. First and foremost is you will never know who has been vaccinated and unvaccinated when youre in a group and being exposed to somebody she was unmasked because they are protected versus not. Right now we know the vaccines prevent disease. They prevent people from getting sick at 95 efficacy. We do not yet know, we think it will be the case, but we do not know it prevents infection. The difference is you could still have the virus but not get sick. We do not know that by being vaccinated i cannot possibly be a carrier and give it to someone else. We will need to continue these things into the future, likely the first half of the year. 100 days after inauguration gets you towards the end of april. That is probably right. I suspect it could be longer than that, but i think that is a good message to get immunity around all of us doing the right thing. David so terribly helpful to have you. Always informative. Dr. Marc boom, houston methodist president and ceo. Wall street week will air tonight at 6 00 eastern time. We are joined by Larry Summers to talk about the big events of the week and how they have affected global wall street. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Time for the stock of the hour. We are looking at carnival and the travel industry. Abigail doolittle is here with a look. Abigail it is interesting because carnival is certainly higher after the company yesterday gave an update, saying they will be cruising again in 2021. Somewhat vague, but you have the stock up 2 . The real gains over last few weeks is not just for carnival but other travel related stocks such as norwegian, american, united airlines. As you can imagine this has everything to do with the vaccine reality, the optimism folks will be back at some point in 2021 and maybe there will be demand for travel. The juxtaposition that is so interesting is we have the disappointing payrolls report today showing the first signs of what the resurgence of the virus meant, at least in the month of november. 245,000 versus the expectation of 460,000 and down from the prior month in october of nearly 640,000 jobs. A lot of those jobs in the travel sector, airline workers, cruise line operator workers, the unemployment above 27 weeks absolutely extended as there is a big population of folks. Any in the travel industry remain unemployed. We have the juxtaposition of the stocks soaring and this realworld difficulty. It is hard to get your mind around but that is what is happeni