They call the process excruciating. Good morning, everyone. Happy friday. We have made it to friday. It has been quite a week. Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. I am Francine Lacqua here in london. The markets are focused on brexit, oil because of opec, and focus on u. S. Stimulus in the u. S. Stocks are holding gains, key data of course out of the u. S. , it is the u. S. Labor market. It is going to give us an indication of whether the economy needs support or not, and Oil Extending Gains after ninemonth high after this opecplus deal. I am looking at the dollar, treasuries pretty much nudging higher. A lot ofve a prett volatility because of brexit do we have a deal, do we not have a deal, have they walked out . It has been pretty unclear so far, talking about lastminute ships come up the british saying it is because of eu demands at the last moment, but it seems like it could be up in the air. Now lets get to the bloomberg first word news. Here is leighann gerrans. Hi, leighann. Leighann good morning, francine. A rescue package will not be dropped unless brussels upholds its ties or democratic values, an agreement between his nation and poland to hold up the budget. At comments propose a deal the eu summit next week. Anthony county, the u. S. Governments top Infectious Disease specialist, has rode back on his criticism of the uks approval of the covid vaccine. He said he did not mean to imply any sloppiness. Meanwhile, president elect joe biden says he will ask all americans to wear a mask to prevent virus spread during the first 100 days of his administration. Of, the opecplus Group Nations has agreed to ease cuts and oil output next year, pumping an extra 5000 500,000 barrels a day from january. The deal comes almost a week from negotiations that exposed a rift at the heart of the cartel. Producers also decided ministers will hold monthly consultations to decide on the next one, a much shorter timeframe than usual. Is to stopanwhile, offering new exploration part of in the sea as the goal to return fossilfuelfree. Gas and oil output will end by 2050. Denmarks Energy Ministry says it will cost about 13 billion krona. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine leighann, thank you so much. Look at us, we are ladies in red. I hope it is not an omen for the market. British Officials Say the European Union had suddenly turned up with a new set of demands. They did not say what the demands were, and officials have actually denied. For more, our brexit editor, ed evans, joins us. Are there other demands, are there not demands, i know your team is trying to work to decide what went down. Is this political posturing, negotiate intact pick come bigger risk we do not get a deal . Edward the risk we do not get a deal is always there. Negotiating tactics, it is perfectly common in these late stages of negotiations for either side to make wildly different productions about the likely outcome. That is all about putting pressure on the others, and that appears to be what is happening here. What we saw earlier in the week was france coming out and warning Michel Barnier, the eus chief negotiator, that it could potentially veto a deal if it goes against Frances National interests. That is a reminder that barnier has to sell any deal he agrees with to the eu 27 member states. They have all got to approve this unanimously. Now, the british said that barnier came back to negotiations and made a whole load of demands. They will not say what they were, and the eu of course has denied them. What this suggests, if you talk to officials on both sides, they both say a breakthrough as possible in the next few days, although time is certainly running out. I think what this is setting us up is a call between Boris Johnson and ursula leyen, European Commission president , but they and the outside chance that this is the moment where breaks down. The business xray was saying this morning we are at a really critical phase in negotiations now. Francine ed, if we dont get a deal by sunday, could we get a deal by next week . Is there a substantive deadline at some point . Deadlinesll, brexit always move, so treat this with a printer of salt, but there are some deadlines next week. The internal market bill is going to come back to the comments on monday. That of course contains a very controversial part of the bill that will give the british ,overnment power to override highly controversial in europe. I think both sides are wanting to get a deal at least agreed him principle before they came back. Theres also the eu summit from leaders, but dont forget they have got a huge argument going theand they do not want distraction of brexit going on while that is going on, so there is pressure to get it done now. Dont forget, they have to get it done before the end of the year, which is when the brexit transition period expires, because this deal has to be ratified. That is straightforward and u. K. As a parliamentary vote. In europe commit will take longer, you leaders have to approve it as will the parliament. That takes a little bit of time, and with it comes a little risk. , you so much, ed edwards there. Now with us as holger schmieding, chief economist at berenberg. Holger, great to have you on the program. Even if we get a deal, it looks like it will be a skinny deal. Financial services are not in there. Do markets care that much . Dr. Schmieding markets care mostly whether there will be a deal or not. The rest is somewhat detailed we would like to get rid of the uncertainty, and i think markets have come over the last year, moved toward officiating, that it probably will be some sort of skinny deal. Trade, hopefully cover but in services, the deal will have huge gaps, which means for the u. K. A longerterm economic disadvantage. Francine holger, what does it mean for how you are expecting u. K. Assets and the u. K. Economy to actually perform . Say you have a deal, what kind of economy are we going to see . Is that austerity, tax cuts, or tax hikes . How will this government actually shape what we will see 18 months from now . Dr. Schmieding well, first of all, by the end of this year, one way or the other, we will probably know whether there is a deal or not, so the uncertainty, which as such, is negative, negative for the u. K. Con amanda little negative for europe will be over one way or another by the end of the year. There is going to be a deal, even if it is a skinny , as to the u. K. Fiscal situation, the u. K. Of course does shoot itself in the foot with brexit. It has done so ever since the referendum. As you can see, the u. K. Economy as a resultformed of the brexit referendum. The u. K. Will have lower trend growth, which means it will be more difficult to balance the budget, so, in a way, brexit end,see to it that in the there will be tax breaks in the u. K. If there is a deal, then the brexit deluge will be a little bit more contained for the u. K. Than in the absence of a deal. So with a deal, even if it is a skinny deal, the u. K. Will reduce the need for tax hikes sometime in the future. Francine holger, at the same time, you talk about a lot of negatives for the u. K. They were completely in charge of fiscal and Monetary Policy. Dr. Schmieding well, they have been in charge of it all the time francine right, but this means that compared to the others, they will have a huge advantage. Will the bank of england have to make a change . Dr. Schmieding well, first of all, again, the u. K. Has been fully in charge of Monetary Policy always. Francine of course, that has not changed. Dr. Schmieding i do not think that the bank of england would want to go to a negative rate. The u. K. Would probably be able to use other tools in Monetary Policy, if they need to stimulate the economy more than that. Ratestimately, indeed, are very low across the western world. Is great, butrt the physical response and secondary, getting the longterm Economic Policy right so that your country has a place to invest, which is where brexit comes in. Monetary policy is already so supported, so tweaks would only make a modest change. Francine and of course, holger, it was not because of brexit, but in other areas, they are in charge, was my question. Coming up on bloomberg surveillance, we speak to the former you see the board member, that conversation 10 30 a. M. London time, and this is bloomberg. Is bloomberg. Francine economics, finance, politics. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am Francine Lacqua here in london. Hungarys Prime Minister, viktor not suspendhe will his block on the Eu Recovery Fund unless they discuss democratic values. For more on this, we are joined by maria tadeo. All, is orbanf doubling down, or that could this be a bluff . He has definitely doubling down, the wording around, but you can also see that orban is really feeling the pressure from the rest of the eu 25 countries that are clearly now sending a signal that they could dig poland and hungary if thats what it takes to go to a 25 member solution. Orban, feelingy the pressure on that front, get a very subtle wording to the polish that they have agreed on a position and he is expecting es will stick to their word on that front. I would say there is a lot of pressure on him going into that summit, which will be done here in brussels for two days, potentially even entering into a strategy session, something a lot of diplomats will have to get over next week. Francine thank you so much, maria tadeo in brussels. Inpoke with someone an blackrock who used to be in politics. We are back with holger schmieding. Holger, a never ending summit in person in brussels. When you look at the other side, the Recovery Fund, is this a bluff, or is this not a bluff . And does it mean that poland and behind. Will be left i just mash them up and called them holand. Dr. Schmieding i think hungary is pretty serious. We do not really need the hungarians for it. , ways ofat the eu going around a hungarian or polish veto. Remain at their current position, the eu will go ahead. This will not derail the Eu Recovery Fund, and hungary is playing that risk of losing a highstakes game. Francine what can the eu do without them . Explain why highstakes, holger, what would happen . Havechmieding the eu can things where not all member countries have to agree. Banks,r, the eu member which is not shared by all 27 eu members, we have other things, which is not a travelfree area for the entire eu, so there are arrangements within the eu treaties which would allow for subgroups of countries to go veto of anhat the individual country could not block it. There are various ways to do that, and the eu is exploring these waves at the moment to make sure the Recovery Fund will happen. The problem then for hungary is if the eu goes around the hungarians, that a, they will not get any money, and that is a lot of money for them at stake, domestic political debate and hungary, it may not go down well. That is because the hungarians want to have political control over their judiciary. They are actually forfeiting money and moving a bit away from the european mainstream. The hungarians often are the ones who fear that the coil around germany and france would be the building lock for a tighter European Union, and they will actually add to the fears of being left out if, with the veto, they now force the eu in the biggest project of the eu ever, to go ahead without hungary. Francine what you are telling me ,holger, basically, you know, hungary would not be a viable member of the eu if they continue vetoing and if the eu goes ahead without them . Dr. Schmieding well, they are a viable member of the eu, but they would be left out of, say, the most juicy bits of the eu at the moment, which is this fund. Again, we have in the eu various members of integration. There are some members that are not part of the euro they do not have to. It is their choice. And if hungary decides to be outside of the fiscal integration, they could come as some have chosen to be outside of the monetary integration, they could do so, but they, the hungarians, will lose a lot of money and reputation by doing so. Francine i think, holger, behind you is a beautiful part germany, which i think is where you are talking to us from. I know you have moved to britain. Overall, brexit, no brexit deal, no deal, at this point, will london suffer because people have moved out to other Financial Centers . Dr. Schmieding yes. London will not suffer very much because of people moving out to other Financial Centers, that is a modest point, but overall the u. K. And its capital, london, or already suffering by than beforegrowth the referendum by logging behind the european continent. Before the referendum, the u. K. Was often ahead of the european continent. Now they land behind in terms of tread growth trend growth. It is not one big price to be paid, but year by year by year, the u. K. Is losing a few opportunities that it would have had if they had decided to stay in the eu. It is a free choice, but it comes at a cost. Francine holger, thank you so much, as always, for a fun conversation, holger schmieding, chief economist at berenberg. After a record amount of coronavirus cases, president elect biden will ask americans to wear a mask for 100 days. More on that next, and this is bloomberg. Bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. I am Francine Lacqua here in london. Now, thanks and concerns and the s p 500 reporting that pfizer has scaled back its production targets after running into difficulties in securing all the materials needed. The group had already cut its production goes to 15 million doses to 15 million. With bloomberg senior pharmaceutical analyst. What does this mean, that it will be difficult for everyone to get a hold of these materials . Sam good morning, francine. Obviously, the Raw Materials that are used, we do not know exactly what they are, but whatever they are, they are likely to be the similar ones modernay, but my dharna never promised a specific dose number, 500 million to a billion doses in 2021 commandery recently they were questioning that, why cant you commit, and they literally said, use the words Raw Materials. We do not know how this will pan out, so we need to be realistic about it. What it does mean is winning to make sure that other vaccines that are not necessarily have the same Raw Materials will use less of them, make it through, obviously that means clinical. Ata hencine dr. Anthony fauci and a heading that they rush to clear the vaccine. What does that mean . Does that mean they went too fast or doesnt hinder Public Confidence and regulators . Sam yeah, but he did walk that back a little but after another interview with the bbc. I do not know what level of knowledge dr. Fauci, for whom i have an enormous amount of respect, has about the process. I think what he said in his latest remarks was that he did not mean that they did anything wrong but that the u. S. Has a different process. But we know that already. The u. S. Asks for every single data point, raw data point to come through, and they analyze it themselves. U. K. Ean and u. S. , regulators have not traditionally done that, so it is faster. Francine sam, thank you so much. We will talk to sam a little bit later to talk more about the vaccines and the safety of them. Fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. Up next, more market commentary. This is bloomberg. Francine economics, finance, politics. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua, here in london. We are getting to brexit in a second. I keep getting mixed messages about whether Michel Barnier is going to go back or not. Lets get to first word news with leighann gerrans. Leighann im going to start with brexit, brexit trade talk said to be on the verge of a breakthrough, hitting a lastminute bump. The British Government says the prospects of an imminent deal has been receded, blaming the e. U. With new demands. Questioning whether the remarks are intended to pile lastminute pressure on the talks. Hungarys Prime Minister says he will not a hint and his block brusselsckage unless blocked its ties upholding democratic values. He reiterated an agreement between his nation and poland to hold up the budget. The comments sent the prospect of a deal at the e. U. Summit next week. The u. K. Granted five passports to hong kong residents during the of october, according to data provided by the u. K. Passport office, more than 216,000 people from hong kong received british overseas passports during the first 10 months of the year, the highest annual victor annual victor ash annual figure since the 1997 holder. Reading back on earlier criticism from the u. K. Rapid approval of the covid vaccine. Is said he did not need to apply any after describing the u. K. Processed as really rushed. President elect joe biden says he will ask all americans to wear a mask to prevent virus daysd during the first 100 of his administration. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im 120 countries, leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much. I have to say, all of the conversations in every cabin london is whether you get the vaccine or not, what it will take for you to get it, and how available it is. One of the best months ever for equities as the vaccine boosted equities. What does the rest of the year and 212 2021 hold . Joining us is toby nangle from columbia threadneedle. Happy friday. When you look at equities and the bull run that we have seen and the record that we have had, as all the good news now priced in . A trillion dollar question there. Valuation is certainly quite high. Compared to at them other markets, when we think about the great environment out ther