Stepping down after arguments over strategy, the bank prepares its search for his successor. Morning, under one hour until the start of cash equity trading. Equity markets under pressure. The futures picture shows relief. Ftse futures up 0. 4 . U. S. Futures point to the upside, up 0. 8 . Global stocks up 12 in november, the biggest monthly gain on record. Lets not forget that will me think about the losses yesterday and the rally he will maybe see today. Greens what we see now, a picture and it comes to the asian stock markets. Data from to take asia whether chinese or korean on the factory side. Be taking aems to turn for the better. In china a decade high for chinese manufacturing. Up on thed enthusiasm, and commodities in focus. Oil prices moving to the downside for a third day. No deal yet on opec and opecplus, and their plans for january. That will be a focus on thursday. Lets get a first word news of eight. Laura president elect joe biden has chosen janet yellen as his treasury secretary. The former fed chair was widely expected to get the top economic job. If confirmed, she would be the first woman in the world. She tweeted, the country faces great challenges but must restore the American Dream. Opec is delaying talks to give ministers more time to reach a deal after a long intense meeting on oil adduction broke down without agreement. The nations are discussing whether to increase production in january as planned, or maintain the cuts to help a rally in oil prices. Chinas economic offensive against australia could end up backfiring. Amid an ongoing spat, beijing has ramped up tariffs on a variety of australian goods. It is a warning for countries not to criticize beijing. It is adding to concerns about economic coercion and may end up pushing some asians closer to the u. S. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. You what is tell going on in asia, this is a closely watched relationship between hong kong and singapore, and the extent we can open up a travel bubble. The travel bubble is delayed beyond 2020. That is not such a surprise. It is interesting to note in places where they have a firm control over the virus, it does seem to open air travel corridors. It was supposed to be a couple of weeks ago but was delayed. Juliette saly was supposed to be on that first flight. That coin climbed to another record level. Bitcoin climbed to another record level. It surpassed the highs of 2017. Cudmore into mark singapore. Is it a coincidence we see money out of gold at the same time we see money into bitcoin. . Are they traded in the same breath for investors . I read that this is the talk of wall street. Is hard to have a conclusive view on bitcoin. I have not heard much until recently that people are deliberately selling down gold to buy bitcoin. I think it is more that people want to allocate more of the portfolio, and bitcoin is seen as the newest and latest fad. Many argue it is the best one out there, and it is gaining institutional support. If you are allocating money rather than increasing gold holdings, you will put money into bitcoin. Im not sure we are seeing a rotation, but money in an older world would have gone into gold instead. In that way it is a transition. Warningry cohn was bitcoin could fail. Prices are at record highs. With the data through the asian session, some of the north asian Economic Data adding to the narrative that we are seeing a rebound. The chinese pmi manufacturing at a decade high. We get confirmation of what we already knew the way chinas economy is relatively rebounding from the earlier crisis, that is a positive. Mark you are right, it is not anything new but it is monster data that is positive and emphasizes a wellknown story. It validates or reinforces that china is at the forefront of the Global Recovery. Chinas excellent handling of the virus situation, how quickly it tackled it and got its economy on track. This data has come in the pbocxt that monday saw the add extra liquidity in the system that was not expected. Overall, the narrative that china will continue to perform will be a big theme for 2021, whether you are bullish or bearish, that is, knowledge. Anna what about the question about what responses on the markets live team, will the dollaryen next hit 100 door 1 100 or 110 . What is the thinking. Interestings most is how the dollaryen question is no longer clearly a haven play, because treasury yields are fixed at a low level. For many years, the idea of getting a risk adverse moment, you get a flood into treasuries that brings the yield down, and then the dollaryen comes lower. Because treasury yields are stuck at this level for a long time, dollaryen is not the obvious haven. People are addressing this question, and most people we know, clients, banks, strategists are very much in the see 2021ollar camp and will see a lower dollar. Tradeeople think 100 will before 110. I get worried when something is so consensus. Anna interesting the dollar view dominates. Rba,commentary from the saying it does not expect to increase cash rates for three years. Many people are trying to work out how in other parts of the world that the pandemic has been way worse, how long we sit with these low Interest Rates. , they rba is saying that are closer to normal life than many parts of the west. They are closer to normal life. They coped much better and have handled the pandemic better. Every central bank should give it isessage, whether about the guidance, i dont know why if you are a central banker, you would not say, we will have Interest Rates down here for as long as relevant, whether it is five years or 10 years. You can always say if we are in a Wonderful World that the situation has changed, the market is doing wonderfully, we are back to full employment, we will hike rates year there is no downside to do that if they can communication clearly. Thank you so much, good to speak to you. Mark cudmore, managing markets live editor. A strong pmi readings suggest conditions are looking up. We will talk about that further with our next guest. This is bloomberg. I desperately believe we need more stimulus, and more today. I would beg congress to go back to work and pass a stimulus bill this week. There is no time like the present. Dollars back in consumers pock ets would be important. Cohn that was gary emphasizing a stimulus bill being passed this week, he sees urgency. We have a guest who may take a different view based on the vaccine news flow. Chinas exports drive recovery. Fastestcates the expansion in 10 years. The message seems consistent with the official pmi which positions strength in external demand. We are joined by thanos papasavvas, cio founder, abp invest. You have had a positive china call for a while, and that has proved correct if you look at this manufacturing data. This manufacturing data continues to build and show strength, whether the domestic chinese economy or external economy. When you are positive on china, what are you betting on now, domestic or international . Thanos we have been positive china for over two years, and even during the pandemic we are still sticking with our view. It will very much be a balanced economy in terms of china. We are seeing structural changes, and we believe under the Biden Administration the relations will not turn around. There will be pressure and tension. The message will remain consistent, albeit the tone more productive and constructive. I see tensions continuing. I would expect the focus on growth, especially with the chinese commonest party will be to shift away from an export recovery to a domestic role, the shift to the middle class, the shift from rural to urban. There is a lot to be done domestically and regionally, which maintains the positive china story for china and korea, indonesia, australia, and the region. Anna tapping into the rising asian middleclass. Let me ask you about your other positioning around the asian road story. Like china and korea, another export economy with a strong domestic growth story in normal times. And japanese equities, why do you like that at this point . Thanos this is a new outlook in terms of japan. We have had a significant rally, we have not seen the equity prices fall for decades. The reason we are positive is because of valuations, we think of valuations quite attractive. If we look at valuations across japan, asia, europe and compare them to the u. S. , there is a clear relative value preference. Japan forms part of that. Japan is one of the few net rcpipients from the latest deal. Be positiveuld surprises. Anna interesting to see how much continuity with the regime and how much of a break. Let me ask about copper, you are positive on oil and copper. I was looking at an interesting chart, and it shows copper 2016, andping up in then again on a Biden Victory in 2020. You are making the broadpoint that certainty, political certainty is the thing these metals like. What is that for you . Thanos it was the macro environment for us. We turned positive copper in may, and the rational was we felt the chinese commonest party was going to do whatever was necessary to ensure the economy remained strong to avoid any social unrest. At the same time we felt given the experience of the euro zone financial the global crisis, the western administrations would throw everything at this crisis, therefore the excessive stimulus would be helping to grow the underlying economic environment. Copper would then if it. That also has benefits toward chile and latin america, and why we are positive chile and the peso. Play Extractive Industries when people are increasingly mandated to be issues, climate change, the impact of our resources . Some could be punished with that as a guiding force, but others allownefit because they technology, change from combustion engines to others. It is not simple to work out your strategy, so how do you play that . Thanos not only that, but the broader question is does one go active or passive . Esg for a passive strategy, and if so, how . More importantly, we have seen the maturity from an investor point of view. From managers moving away an exclusion policy to inclusion , identifying best in class, going deep into the bottom of the analyses to identify the stoxx which present the generateich portfolios. Anna stay with us, thanos papasavvas, cio founder, abp invest. Vows top, janet yellen restore the American Dream as treasury secretary. We will look at the rest of joe bidens economic team, next. This is bloomberg. But would say not just citi the Banking Industry had a Good Relationship with her. Or voted intoted the seat, i think she will do a great job. I would expect that relationship to continue. I would also shout out a Glass Ceiling broken in terms of her becoming the first female secretary treasury, which will be another great one for the books. Anna that was the citi ceo speaking to bloomberg. We will bring you more of that interview. You can catch David Rubensteins full interview this friday at 3 00 p. M. U. K. Time. His comments about janet yellen comes as president elect biden nominates the rest of his economic team. Alongside janet yellen the council of economic advisors, and neerah tandem will be budget director. Lets look where the administration goes next. Thanos papasavvas, cio founder, abp invest is still with us. We are digesting delay supplements by joe biden, getting a lot of headlines, the appointment of janet yellen to the treasury. What assumptions are you making about fiscal stimulus from here . We heard gary cohn argue that we need more stimulus. Will janet yellen be able to put something through in january, or if we look at the data and the vaccine coming, we are not sure we need a fiscal stimulus . Think the underlying key view we have is they will provide as much stimulus as necessary. Whether it is with or without a vaccine. From a political angle, i think biden has shown he is pragmatic, he is aware of the potential split with the senate, and not only on the aftermath of georgia, but if there is a 5050, he could not go too aggressive, because centrist democrats would not agree to things. Wave will not be a blue until the midterms of 2022. As a result, he has shown signs of compromise. I believe this administration will tend to left rather than the progressive left. In terms of janet yellen, i doubt she will have any issues in terms of being appointed. Yellen and to have powell being aware of the underlying requirements, alongside a potential best Case Scenario with a vaccine. Anna what will that relationship the like between the treasury and the fed . It has been tense, but we will see a new administration in january, so maybe that does not matter. There is talk about the need for fiscal and Monetary Policy in various geographies to work to the same end, even if it does not specifically cooperate. How do you expect the fed and treasury to Work Together . Thanos i think as you alluded to, the Current Situation is temporary. I do not see any significant concern. In january things will improve theeen the treasury and fed, and there will be alignment between fiscal and Monetary Policy which has worked since march. It is also something madame lagarde has spearheaded in the euro zone by bringing together the fiscal push helping toward the Recovery Fund alongside macron and merkel. We have seen alignment with fiscal and Monetary Policy. What does that mean for the debt and deficit . Of course we will see an increase in the deficits and debt, but these are issues we can deal with in the mediumterm. The cost of not dealing with economic crisis and leading to a deflationary spiral could be more expensive from a sociopolitical perspective, rather than dealing with imbalances today. Anna in western economies, or you worried about a deflationary spiral, or inflation coming back to haunt us . Thanos inflation, i believe we will move into an inflationary period, not in the next 69 months, but further from that, most definitely. The receding globalization of the multipolar world. That will increase costs. Tensions will remain across the geopolitical areas, even between the u. S. And the eu. Thirdly, i see an unprecedented level of stimulus, and very importantly, not directed toward important institutions. It is more broad based across households. And Central Banks want it. Anna thank you very much, thanos papasavvas, cio founder, abp invest. Coming up our exclusive interview with citi ceo, michael corbat. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open. Little0 futures fading a. Strength in the asian session. As much as that was pushed on expectations of a higher start dax to the cac and upside. At 10 00 a. M. We will get euro area inflation data for november. Bloomberg economics expected to be remained stubbornly low. Lawmakers will debate tougher covid measures for england. Wales will face tougher measures shortly. President elect joe biden reassured the nato secretarygeneral that the u. S. s enduring commitment to the military alliance. At 3 00, Jerome Powell and Steve Mnuchin will testify before the senate on their responses to the pandemic. Will recent tensions be on show or not . Equity bulls look to history for welcome news after record gains in november. The hope is a rally will take markets higher into the new year. Here is dani burger. I was reading analysis that suggested it is difficult with such a strong month what is the typical path for equities following . Add into that the complication of the arrival of the man in red . Dani there is a question of this historical phenomenon it ise as you said, coming after a record november, will that take some wind out of santas sleigh . A december which is the second best month of the year since 1991, gaining 2 after april. As to why this exists, there are a lot of theories, some of it is psychological, people are happier around the holiday season, maybe that means people want to buy, maybe Fund Managers are doing rebalancing. That rebalancing helps give markets a boost. We cannot rely on superstition. Because it comes after november, and history does not play out, i put up the stoxx 600 december returns after the last couple years. It is not consistent. We have losses as much as 5. 5 . When this comes up against fundamentals, the fundamentals that are constantly shifting due to the lockdown situation, it is hard to rely on this santa claus rally. In terms of what people are betting on for the rest of the and, the vix is still low diving into the charts, it will stay low and continue to exceed those that will rise. This level below this ratio means there are more puts and calls. Puts than calls. For what investors see for december and the start of the year heading into that georgia runoff, investors are betting on a calm december. Anna that would be a relief. Take me back to 2018 and the volatility, we saw a runup to the christmas holiday. Thank you very much. Dani burger. Lets get a first word news update. Opec is delaying talks for two days to give ministers more time to reach a deal. Thats after a long and tense meeting on Oil Production broke down without agreement. The nations are discussing whether to increase production in january as planned, or maintain the cuts to help a rally in oil prices. Federal reserve chair Jerome Powell is warning uncertainties remain for the economy, despite progress on a vaccine. He says a shot will be positive for the mediumterm, but things will be challenging for the next few months. Powell did not give an indication of how the central bank might react, but reiterated it will use all its tools to help the economy. Bitcoin has hit a record, beating its previous high set in december of 2017. It takes this years surge to more than 170 . Even with the recent rally, bitcoin ownership remains concentrated with a small number of investors. About 2 of accounts control 95 of positive digital assets. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Anna lets have a quick check on the markets. Some better data out of asia has