This is widely expected. This is the vaccine that was found to be 94. 5 effective in the primary analysis. There is discussion about possibly having some sort of meeting later in the month with the fda to make the approval. We heard from officials over the weekend that they are going to try to approve it in fast order. If you take a look at markets, not the response you would think, at least not much. Jonathan it has been the diminishing marginal rate of the additional vaccine news in this market that has diminished over the last several weeks. Equity futures down 0. 4 percent. Expectations are already so well anchored by the vaccine news weve had over the last several weeks. We are down 0. 4 on the s p 500. In the bond market, yields up by a basis point or two to 0. 85 on the 10 year. The news isnt this morning. It is the cumulative impact of the last several weeks and now it is shaped the forward outlook under a much better way compared to what we face right now in the here and now into year end. Lisa i do think it is significant in this announcement that the Public Meeting with the u. S. Fda is being scheduled for december 17. I think this is interesting because perhaps we will get a better sense of the rollout, how quickly we could get vaccinated, how quickly we can stop Wearing Masks and move on with life. But i agree with you, this is baked in at this point. The question for a lot of people looking at markets after the wondernth, you have to what will give this another leg higher. How much good news is baked in . How much does reality have to catch up . Jonathan the rustle up a 20 , absolutely amazing. This vaccine has passed several trials over the last several months. Looking at the equity market more broadly, it is monday morning, which means we have to catch up with sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. Do you like what you hear, how quickly we can get to that destination this market is already pricing in . Sam good morning, jonathan. The update moderna put out is not just about the fact that they are filing, but also that theyve got a full analysis of 196 covert cases. The efficacy has come out at 94. 5 which is pretty close to what we already saw at the interim analysis. This to me sounds great. They havent told us what is going on with the elderly. They told us of the older people in the number of cases. What i can tell you is they are seeing no severe cases at all, so 100 efficacy against severe cases. That must mean that none of the older folk who are usually the ones who developed severe cases who developed severe cases have severe cases. Lisa youre seeing no reaction whatsoever in markets. Do we have a sense of what needs to happen for another leg of positive news . Do you think we could bring forward the schedule of vaccinations to possibly january or february, or are we still looking at april or may before is a Critical Mass of people inoculated . The problem sam will be coming to do that, you will need to companies to find ways of manufacturing more doses faster. That is possible, but i am pretty sure they are doing the absolute best they can to manufacture the maximum number of doses possible. Then you have the logistics of, youve got the doses. Youve got to convince people to come through the door to get vaccinated. I think what would probably start moving the needle next would be perhaps another Company Coming up with a positive result. That could be novavax from the u. K. Trials, which has just completed recruitment. That should come in the next few weeks, months. As we get news of the rollout actually happening, this many people have been vaccinated, etc. Jonathan sam, great to catch up on another monday morning with some better news. For our audience worldwide, if you are just tuning in, but tuning in, moderna requesting clearance for its vaccine as soon as today. Lets pick up the conversation with Michael Shaoul, market portfoliot management manager. Is there anything that could derail the optimism around a better outlook . Michael i dont think so, at least i hope not. Having said that, i will say that markets are quite stretched at the end of november, particularly the cyclical trade. It has had a hell of a move. Ive seen plenty of decembers which have had a cky couple of weeks in them. The economy is really firing on all cylinders at this point in time. I think a vaccine would helpful, but i dont think it is necessary. Ve had such aha for thesenth equities. Upgrade eurozone to overweight, with a potential bounce in relative earnings on the cards. That is just a flavor of what weve heard so much over the last several weeks around the international story. Is it something you buy into, too . Analysis doesnk often follow performance. Theres so much market cap tra pped in the stocks that had been working that any kind of reallocation away from that towards almost anything else is going to have an explosive impact. We would favor japan over the euro zone. I like what is in the nikkei. I liked that part of the world in general. I think that you had four or five years of tremendous outperformance by u. S. Tech against global equities, and i think youve unlocked a little bit of a rebound. The tricky thing Going Forward is if this is a true turning point, you look back in five years and say that really was something, that normally implies a problem in the stock that has been working. Certainly that was the case at the end of the late 1990s, certainly the case with em. Finished outperforming in 2011, so i think the tricky thing is if this021 outperformance continues, does that involve u. S. Tech or the popular portions of the u. S. Equity market going down . Lisa theres also a question of whether the pandemic still matters. Does it . Michael it depends. It matters tremendously for urban service economies. It doesnt matter a great deal, and may even be having a strange beneficial effect come for the durable goods economy. Think a slightly different question would be if we do have a successful vaccine and we arrive in the summer of 2021 in a better place medically and socially, does that come at the expense of the durable goods economy . Ignited a just selfperpetuating cycle in that part of the Global Economy . Lisa at what point do you take a message from the bond market that really hasnt participated in the rally . The idea that treasury yields have remained so suppressed despite the optimism we have seen everywhere else. Take a i think i would partial message from that. I do think that guidance has something to play, and i think that fixed income is something of a relative value play. Think that if the cyclical forces do continue, you will have higher u. S. Treasury yields. The u. S. Tenyear will find its or 1. 7 5 next year, which would hardly be a shocking level historically. Jonathan weaker dollar started to come through. The dollar in the sand for so many of you is 1. 20. We know that is the line in the sand for ecb because whenever we got to eurodollar at 1. 20, philip lane came out and backed it back down again. , thealls are lining up consensus view for 2021 is weaker dollar. Is that the side of the trade you are on, too . Michael weaker against the cyclically sensitive currencies. I think em currencies can gain a lot against it. Jonathan Michael Shaoul of market field asset management, ceo and portfolio manager, thank you. We know what happened last time eurodollar got near 1. 20. Do we see a repeat of that and start to get near that level again . Lisa you have to wonder at what point people care about the data. I know i am going to be debbie downer, but we are not out of the woods when it comes to the virus. Is the point sluggishness going to weigh on the euro, especially if you see Something Different in the u. S. . Jonathan you cant argue with the data. Claims last week, not great. The week before, not great. No one thinks it is going to get better anytime soon. The question youve got to ask, what would derail expectations for 2021 when we have had such encouraging vaccine news over the last month. And quite clearly, as weve experienced, two claims data prints isnt getting it done. Lisa and when people talk about scarring, especially some of the Bigger Companies taking this time to retrench, that is going to have longer lasting implications. I will say, michael dart a came out vehemently against the bears , saying they are going to use the sagging data to edify this narrative, but really the recovery is intact, and will continue to be, based on the savings rate, the stimulus, and the strength we have seen. Jonathan did it feel personal when you got that email . Lisa 1000 , yes. [laughter] jonathan have you heard from mr. Keene at all . Lisa i have not. He is in a turkey,. Jonathan neither have i in a turkey coma. Jonathan neither have i. Hes making cooking videos. Ive had the tom keene breakfast before, and i can tell you if you go out for breakfast, you better hope that mrs. Keene is cooking and not mr. Keene. Tom keene is back on wednesday. It might be tomorrow. Who knows . He just turns up whenever he wants to. On the s p 500, we are softer by 0. 3 . Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika the first word news, im ritika gupta. It is the second biggest takeover this year. S p global has agreed to buy ihs market for 39 billion in stock. Current stockholders will earn a. 6 earne than 0 of thee more than 0. 6 stock. Modern is on track to have one of the first vaccines approved in the u. S. A group of up plus ministers couldnt reach an agreement of opec ministers could not on output cuts before a full meeting of the cartel. The uae and kazakhstan opposed a proposal to maintain the current cuts. Online shoppers in the u. S. Are expected to spend a record breaking 12. 7 billion. On cyber monday it is the busiest ecommerce day of the year. Retailers such as amazon, walmart, and best buy have been preparing for months. This will be the ultimate test for their new delivery capacity. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. There is light at the end of the tunnel because we will really be seeing vaccines soon. We likely, almost certainly, are going to be vaccinating a portion of individuals in the First Priority before the end of december. Jonathan that is the good news from tony fauci, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases director. From new york city this morning, and the city, bloomberg surveillance and the city of london, bloomberg surveillance. In the fx market, give bloomberg surveillance bloomberg surveillance in the fx market, we get closer to in the bond market, yields up by two basis points to 0. 8586 . Where were yields when we started the month . Pretty much exactly where they are right now. Lisa which is frankly, to me, the story of the month. I know this is, again, debbie downer. Jonathan its what people expect. Its what they miss. [laughter] happy to have you back. Carryon. Lisa i am just wondering why are bonds not confirming the optimism we are seeing in stocks. Are they not confirming the reflationary trade, or is this confidence that they are going to accelerate their bond purchases . I dont know that the story is consistent. Jonathan ive spoken to a lot of people who think it is the latter, but we will find out. s kevinus now from d. C. Cirilli, bloombergs chief washington correspondent. Just how quickly can we get these things approved down in washington . Kevin it is going to be fast and furious. The speed of this is just as interesting as whether or not democrats are going to be supportive of this. I am going to be paying careful attention to what is elect joe bidens Transition Team has to say this week about the vaccination front. We should note that the communication between the outgoing and Incoming Administration finally beginning in earnest, and of course, there have been transition briefings on operation warp speed, on the issues of the vaccination front as well, despite the politics that have surrounded the issue all around. Lisa there also is today the first intelligence briefing for joe biden and Kamala Harris. How important is that . Kevin massively important. Some extent, it is really what the conversation surrounding these intelligence and National Security briefings. I can recall when senator lindsey graham, republican from south carolina, weeks ago called on President Trump to make sure those transitions were Going Forward. You look at the development in the last 72 hours with iran, you look at the questions that have been coming up with whether or not north korea is going to be looking to test missiles as they frequently do anytime there is a changing of administrations, and this is crucial to National Security. Jonathan what i think we have touched on is really important. I want to get your view on where the administration is taking things. Theres still a couple of months left in this administration. They have objectives in the middle east. What are the objectives, and do you expect them to look at achieving them in the several weeks they have left . Kevin first and foremost, the american objective is to make sure that iran does not maintain does not obtain a nuclear weapon. That unites democrats as well as republicans. Secondly, the mechanism in which to achieve that is very different from both political parties. The Trump Administration had withdrawn from the iran Nuclear Disarmament deal, arguing it was a disaster for the region, as well as a disaster for americas ally in israel. ,he Incoming Administration with these intelligence briefings, is really going to have to assess the new geopolitics of the region. Tony blinkens middle east is going to be much different than the middle east of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and the obama administration. That is where things like renegotiating the iran Nuclear Disarmament deal get more different. The president , for his part, just to go back to the first part of your question, he has been tweeting still about iran. He celebrated the killing of the Nuclear Scientist, the fifth Nuclear Scientist to be killed in iran dating back to 2010. Jonathan just a word on tony blinken, if you can. When we got the announcement of who would be going where in this cabinet, a lot of people said it was down the middle. Confirmation would be very straight forward. Things changed over the weekend. Kevin i think the 2024 race is up and running for the republican primary, similarly to how progressives and democrats like Vice President elect Kamala Harris and senator Elizabeth Warren at the time came out and opposed every single nomination that then president elect trump had been naming there is it had been naming during his transition process. Upon my reporting, antony incredibly wellrespected respected in senior circles in washington, d. C. I do not perceive that he will confirmed, to get based on the conversation im having. Based on the conversations i am having. Lisa is the legal conversation for President Trump happening at this point . Kevin it is still a conversation in certain conservative circles, but i dont hear about it when i talk to staff. Lisa lets put it another way. Is the legal team now Rudy Giuliani . Kevin yes. [laughter] i will keep it very simple, yes. Lisa President Trumps acknowledgment that he is unlikely to get this to the Supreme Court is basically the death of this legal team. Kevin exactly. I dont mean to laugh off the question because it is incredibly important, but even when this is going on, in the days after the election i was talking to staffers, as well as Campaign Staffers on the republican side who were really scratching their head. Some of them didnt know the strategy was. I do want to notice that republicans, especially 2020 four circle republicans, are trying to ash especially 2024 especially 2024 circle republicans, are trying to plan this out, how states should be called and election security. Democrats are saying you had an opportunity to look at this when there is a five when there was a bipartisan vehicle led by Amy Klobuchar to bolster election security. I remember talking about election security, as well as mailin ballots, but this is something that was discussed months ago, and in fact, other republicans are wondering why the republicans and the president didnt embrace mailin ballots in some of these battleground states last spring when this issue was first raised. Jonathan just to end things here, this is the key distinction. This is not about security. This is about counting them, and how you come the boats. Youve got to get everyone to agree on how to count the ballots. Kevin in may ways, the patchwork of regulation around the country is by design from a security perspective. It is a lot harder and more difficult to penetrate and infiltrate an election system when there is a patchwork around the country then it is to just take out one universal system. On the one hand, the conversation is a bit more nuanced because of that. Toathan kevin, always good catch up. Kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. Plenty of news coming through this morning. We got the news around a vaccine this monday morning. Expected to request clearance for its covid next scene its Covid Vaccine in the u. S. And europe as soon as today. We heard from the u. S. Surgeon general, saying he would promise rapid review of these kinds of applications, so how quickly will we hear back . Lisa and how quickly will we actually get the vaccine this trip did . When do you expect to get the vaccine distributed . When do you expect to get the v