Chances of a compromise look slim. And trump says he will leave the wine house if joe bidens is confirmed by the Electoral College but says he may never concede. Good morning to you. Happy day after thanksgiving, it is black friday. We are seeing different sentiments. We saw Global Equities gain but sentiment is subdued. S p 500 futures flat. America comes back online after thanksgiving. We see money moving into the treasury markets down more than three basis. Money moving into havens like the yen. Up against most major peers. Wti taking a leg lower. 44 in that handle. Outputama going into the production meeting monday. Iraq, uae, they do not want to resume sales. Potentially drama. I want to show you the fantastic chart on the terminal if we can switch up the boards. Global stocks, even though they market, theyin the are on track for the best on record, up 13 . Best month on record since we have been tracking the data since 1990. We are seeing exuberance in the Global Equity market but risks remain. One is germany. Europes biggest economy. In the vaccine front, astrazenecas ceo told bloomberg exclusively its shot is likely headed for an additional global trial. That is an effort to clear up the confusion surrounding the latest results. Joining us to break it down is the chief economist at bny mellon investment management. We continue to see this continuous uptick in virus cases. California surpassing one million come one point 2 million. Germany also north of one million cases. In germany as well, they announced lockdowns before christmas. Some regions going into tough tears. Tiers. What do you make of this . How is it going to affect growth across the continent . It reminds me things are pretty tough at the moment. But the fall quarter, europe may see a small contraction. My estimate i have mentioned down thef you shut economy, it puts a third of gdp at risk. I think it would be about half as dramatic this time. What that is my starting point. European growth will be lower, around 3 this quarter. The markets are processing all of that. Of course, as you say, the fact that coronavirus cases are still picking up strongly is something to beast concerned about. They are looking forward and balancing the bad news against the good news of the vaccine. That news does remain, on balance, good. Annmarie we do have different measures across whether or not you are living in germany, france, or the u. K. Yount to get a sense who do think is doing the best, in terms of gdp . N2 is going to struggle the most . To be honest, i suspect there is not a huge amount of difference between them. If you really push me, i suspect the u. K. And france will see larger downturns than germany, just because germany during the economyckdown, more stronglyck during the Third Quarter. Having said that, the german situation does look significantly worse than it did last time. I think we take some comfort which point to a smaller impact this time around. That is something to keep and i on. Broadly speaking, i think that is annmarie the vaccine front has been hope for. The Astrazeneca Ceos get bloomberg, showing the bumps in the road. What are we looking at in terms of when we will see a vaccine in proper rollout and affecting mobility, getting back to precrisis levels . Bump in the road is the right way of putting this. This was always going to happen, given the speed with which vaccines have been brought to market. Clearly it is going to be a little bit bumpy getting on through to the production vaccine. I think it is unequivocally good nude news. It does not surprise me markets have bounced as much as they have. If you ask me for a best guess, our assumption is vaccines will start to be rolled out before the end of the year. They will sort of hit the road running around the Second Quarter of next year. The result is the u. S. And european economies might go through sort of an air pocket in the fall quarter and possibly part of the First Quarter. Second quarter, i think the second and Third Quarter of next year could be quite dramatic and strong indeed. Big news ise other hungary and poland doubling down when it comes to the stimulus package, which was hailed as a huge win for europe. How does this affect growth . Great, youin is not are absolutely right. The fact that much is hinging on that stimulus package, and politics is getting in the way of that, is in a negative is a negative. I suspect at the end of the day, the package will get through. The funds will get through to some degree. Of course, we have seen a large degree of stimulus within europe and the euro area. Much of which is yet to be felt. Couple that with a huge amount of monetary stimulus from the ecb, there is a lot of tailwind from the stimulus side. Not just in europe but around the world. Can a recalibration really deliver what is needed in the sense if we do not get a stimulus package soon, the ecb may have to do more on that front . Think that is the calibration the market is make at the moment. It is one of the reasons european bonds are in the short run. Cannotent to which you rely on fiscal stimulus means the pressure falls back on the central bank to do more. The ecb stands ready to step in if required. I think we have heard from Christine Lagarde she would much rather see a big fiscal stimulus package then have to step in. Ready toly they stand do so. Fixed income markets are making that calculation. Annmarie we are going to get your take on u. S. Stimulus. I know you have a number in mind. That is coming up with our chief economist at the ny mellon investment management. Lets get a recap of the first word news. Heres laura wright. Minister Boris Johnson is warning of long months ahead in the fight against coronavirus he says agland is set to go back to tiered system of restrictions. London is avoiding the toughest rules which are falling in cities like an chester in birmingham. Chinas latest target in its fat with australia is wide. It is set to impose antidumping duties of more than 100 of exports. It follows a raft of other measures are in imports from coal and copper to bali. China is the biggest buyer of australian wine. Official is open to allowing some banks to pay dividends. Prefersmember says he lenders are prudent, but he understands the measure comes with costs. Global news, 24 hours a day, on quicktake,bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. This is bloomberg. Annmarie thank you so much. Coming about the program up in the program, giving it the old college try. President trump says he will relinquish power if the Electoral College backs biden, but still claims the election was a fraud. You are watching bloomberg television. Be a very hardto thing to concede because we know there was massive fraud. So as to whether or not i can get this apparatus moving this because time is not on our side, Everything Else is on our side, facts are on our side. Annmarie the president of the United States speaking to reporters saying it would be hard for him to concede. He added if the Electoral College were to affirm joe upens win, he would give power. Happy thanksgiving, another american abroad. The closest, you think, President Trump may get to an actual concession speech . Thanksgiving to you, too. It may well be. Powerd he will relinquish only if the Electoral College win, but itbidens is expected to do that. I dont think we are going to hear there is no indication we are going to get an actual concession speech from the sitting president. Be the closest people calm. He remained defiant in his talk with reporters before he spoke to the military. He returned to this series of attacks criticizing the election and how it was handled. Republicaneorgias secretary of state an enemy of the people. He is still being defiant, but he did say when he was pressed, he said it would be a hard thing to concede but if the Electoral College confirms joe bidens victory, he said this election is a fraud but that he would go ahead go along with her decision. Front,e in the lawsuit has there been any fresh evidence of Election Fraud as the president claims5 . There really have not. A number of states have certified the election. The objections of donald trump do not seem to be going anywhere. He acknowledged too he is time to out of present evidence of this fraud. Signaling frankly the evidence may never come. Annmarie i want to quickly ask you, if he does not attend president joe bidens inauguration, how big of a deal with that be . It would be historic. We knew some president s who were not necessarily the best of friends to their successors, but everyone has always invited the new president and their spouse to the white house beforehand. There has always been picture taking and that kind of thing. They have always been there at the ceremony itself, looking gracious. Itwould be ceremonially, would be something quite different. People are already factoring this in. This has been a very unusual election, and an unusual presidency. President trump does things in his own way. A lot of people are not even expecting him to be there but it would be historic and sent a different signal about the transition of power and the u. S. Low expectations. Thank you for your time. Enjoy your thanksgiving leftovers this morning. U. S. Markets back up and running after the thanksgiving holiday. It is black friday so the focus has moved to the retail sector. Well labor market data has disappointed, with jobless claims ticking higher, Consumer Spending is trucking along. You can see that arise from the depths of the lows. The chief economist at be away mellon investment is with us. I want a sense of what is going on with the u. S. Consumer. What is your sense of that mixed data . Will we see this trend higher of consumer demand . As you said, it is mixed. Positive echoes for the u. S. Consumer are strong. Unusuales this an recession. Personal incomes have risen. Savingsusehold roundabouts of 20 of personal income. Cash bounties. You have essentially a low level of leverage compared to history. All of that for me adds up to a fair amount of pentup demand for you the u. S. Consumer for the u. S. Consumer. We saw some of that coming through when the restrictions were relaxed. Much depends on what we were talking about earlier, whether or not they allow that to happen. If it does, i expect they will have a fair amount of buying power. Annmarie we see disposable income ballooning in the u. S. Revenge demand we potentially see today. You also look at the trends, how social behavior may impact productivity. What do you think from the pandemic will stick when we finally come out of this covid crisis . Yeah, that is a huge question. Covid will change some things permanently, we are going to have to reassess dramatically. Seenof the trends we have i think during the crisis will persist. The shift toward online may be away from spacebased services, a hit for experiential services, that kind of thing for some time. That said, those may be the long run outcomes of this. Second and Third Quarter and next year, if we get the vaccine and this pentup demand, one of the first things people will want to do is doing some of this stuff they have not been able to do for some time. You might see things like travel pop in the middle of next year. It is a difficult call long run. R thing toharder judge. What we will see is Consumer Preferences rebalancing over the next two or three years, but a volatile outlook for the next year against what if we get a vaccine is a positive background. Annmarie there is a new administration coming in. We are waiting for the Senate Runoff in georgia to find out how much weight the republicans will have in the senate to review have a high number in terms of fiscal aid you expect. In the senate. You have a high number in terms of fiscal aid. To say a lotght depends on the runoff in georgia and the nature of the senate. What a divided government out to work. S , it is a much smaller number than markets were expecting a month or so ago when the big expectation was for a blue wave or Something Like that. In a sense, recession expectations from a high number are down from 2. 53 trillion. It might be less different difficult than some people think. I expect lawmakers and the president worked to get toward that number. It is very uncertain. It is that uncertainty combined with the air pocket, we could see some with the uncertainty combined with the air pocket, we could see some volatility and weak numbers. That is the number the administration will be aiming for. Annmarie what we are seeing with jobless claims, that potential deterioration, could we see more deterioration if we do not get a stimulus package . Yeah, we could. If we dont get a stimulus package, all bets are off. I you combine there is have been relatively positive but there is a downside out there. We do not get the stimulus and the vaccine turns out not to be as effective as we thought. Throughction rates rise the First Quarter and carryon, absolutely, that kind of world which is odds against but could happen, that kind of world you do see jobless claims continue to rise. Unemployment continued to stay high. And then the outlook is different. I think in the balance of news we have had, i think that kind of combined outcome is odds against. Annmarie thank you so much for joining us this morning. The chief economist at bny mellon management. Next, has the great rotation installed . And the move to cyclicals we saw earlier in the week restart . That debate next. This is bloomberg. Morning, 6 24 in the city of london. Cyclicalsation into and values is the rotation into cyclicals and value stalled or could we see further moves . Stallcertainly saw it wednesday before thanksgiving. A little bit of data suggesting the recovery was in doubt. When you look at the russell 1000 index, it is on track for a third monthly gain of outperformance against the russell 1000 growth index. Goldman sachs reckons this will continue. Asy are saying stay prorisk they expect a strong recovery from the covid19 shock. Economists have kept global weight Global Equities and underweight bonds. Fund flows are definitely doing the switch with investors rotating into stocks trading in low valuations and piling into asian equities and also emerging assets. Another says undervalued shares will start to outperform Growth Stocks in the next sixeight months if you see a vaccine. Hes talking about travel, leisure, financials. Previruset back to levels and could even outperform. He is favoring shares in hong kong because they are cheap and they are going to benefit from the rebound you are seeing in china. Annmarie tell us what is going on with ray dalio. Setting up a new Family Office close to your home. Singapore,me, and the bridgewater Hedge Fund Manager setting up a Family Office and the lion city. As we see some outperformance here in asia. Singapore has been trying to attract the superrich through their Global Investor program which fast tracks permanent residence. Family offices mens the personal households of the worlds richest households. Those it asia have outperformed their global peers. Those in asia have outperformed their global peers. Behindthe billionaires heidi lau, the chinese hot pot restaurant, adding to the growth of wealth here in the lion city. Annmarie thank you so much. An update from the lion city. Lets get a check on where we trade this friday morning. It is 6 27 in london. We are seeing divergence when we look at u. S. Equity futures and europe. S p 500 futures flat, but they are in the green. We could see lower volumes today. It is the day after thanksgiving and many take that off. Youre a stock futures dipping into the red. Futures dipping into the red. Still raging, germanys virus and cases inillion new york hit a new high. Astrazeneca says they will undertake a new vaccine trial. This is bloomberg. Mberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Annmarie good morning. I am Annmarie Hordern. Here are your top stories. Stocks mixed as germany coronavirus cases top 1 million and new infections in new york hit a seven month high. Astrazeneca ceo tells bloomberg it will undertake a new vaccine trial. Hungary and poland vowed to veto package. Stimulus chances of a compromise look slim. Willresident trump says he leave the white house if joe thens win is confirmed by Electoral College. Happy friday. Good morning to you. 6 30 and the city of london. 7 30 a. M. In the continent. Some of that momentum starting to stall. We see sentiment a bit softer. Futures across the u. S. Come up 0. 1 percent. Relatively flat. We do have money been into treasuries with the yield coming down and money moving into havens like the yen. Up against most of its major peers. You can see some risk come down, 45 flat. Some drama going into the opec meeting next week as iraq and the uae want to resume more sales. The likes of saudi arabia will want to keep a lid on that production. I want to show you where we are, near the end of november, global stocks main on track for the best month on record, up 12 13 . This goes back to when we have been tracking the data, 1990. In asia, the Chinese Industrial production surged at the past us to face at the fastest pace in nine months. Chinese exceptionalism still continuing. They were the first in and the first out of this pandemic. Risks remain, bumpy road for a potentially bumpy road for vaccines. Astrazeneca ceo says its vaccine likely headed for an additional global trial as the drugmaker tries to clear u