Moment. It is moving markets, but theres a lot of stuff percolating. The Dollar Strength really has my attention. I would go to the news released in the 5 00 hour of the reports that mr. Netanyahu met with the crown prince of saudi arabia. These really havent been vetted out by the israeli or saudi government yet, but i wonder if that helped a little bit as well. Jonathan i dont know about that, tom. News, dollaraccine weakness, can we touch about that a little bit more . The dollar taking out the lows on dxy. Es, we will see how bbdx do and the others. What i would note is the mexican peso. Comes through, hits 20 this morning. That is just one little snapshot of the complexity of e. M. Pairs doing well. Dm,than from e. M. To everything stronger against the u. S. Dollar. Yields up a couple of basis points. Lisa, good morning to you. Supply coming through the week. Lisa we will be getting 190 billion of debt, fiveyear notes. I dont know if you did this reading over the weekend about the inflation outlook in the near term and how theres a real divergence of views on whether we will overshoot with the fed target of 2 , or under shoot. Morgan stanley seeing a pretty significant overshoot. Looking for that in the bond market today. Also today, michigan and pennsylvania are likely to certify the election results. The election has moved on if you look at markets, and yet there still is this tension. At what point will the republican pressure come to enough of a head to get President Trump to concede, or at least get the transition crew to give information to the biden adminstration . Also today, the white house may issue a list of 80 Nine Companies denied access to u. S. Tech imports. Chinese companies. How much is the trump i adminstration going to try to , and how much will this come look at the efforts to try to get out some sort of track to recover on the other side . Jonathan how much daylight will there be between the two administrations when it comes to china . It is a really good point. We will touch on the perspectives changes in the cabinet coming up in the next four years. We might get details on that in the next 24 hours. I want to touch on the markets quickly. Theres a cyclical tilt again to this market. Europe with a lift, small caps with a lift. We got used to this now. Up 18 on the s p. Eurodollar, this move has been absent. Eurodollar reclaiming a 1. 19 handle. In an index heavily weighted to the single currency, taking out the lows of early september. We head north by two basis points to 0. 8488 . Theres the move in the crude market. I think weve got the postcovid stock highs in the crude market on wti and brent. Cents 45. 49. Without question with e. M. Strength, bbdxy breaks out to new dollar weakness. Jonathan multiyear lows. Weve got to start the conversation this moaning where we started every single monday the previous two weeks. Tom everyday. Jonathan do it with sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence. Sam gets to join us when we get good news. This morning we heard from astrazeneca. I have to say, this one was harder to read them what we heard from moderna and pfizer. When you get two different, three different efficacy numbers thrown out there, can you walk us through what you are focused on and what we should be focused on . Sam good morning, and yes, it is good news. Not as good as what weve had, but still good news. I would have to say that it always worries me a little bit when data, you start getting these subgroups thrown out in the press release. To me, i am going to read this as a 70 efficacy vaccine until i see the details of the group that had the 90 in the 62 . You cant ignore the 62 . We just have to understand why there was a difference. There isnt enough information there for me to figure that out, so we are going to run with 70 , but that is still not bad. This is what we were looking for when we first got these vaccines. Tom Deutsche Bank moments ago put out a chart of herd immunity, the different nations as they try to get to this important concept, where maybe the virus and the pandemic ebbs away. What does the fazeli herd immunity chart look like . How distant is it . Sam ive tried to draw that chart many times, and every time i do it, i find far too many variables. Tom totally agree. Sam the toughest one is how many people actually go lineup and take the vaccine. I hope that, knowing that we are always far too optimistic, lets say the second half. Jonathan sam, short and sweet. Great to catch up, sir. Hope we can do this monday with even more good news. Want to start the market conversation with amy wu silverman, Rbc Capital Markets equity derivatives strategist. A word that gets thrown around a lot in conversations on wall street is the word complacency. In your world, do you see signs of the cword . [laughter] amy a little bit, yes. We have heard this narrative a lot now, that the market is just going to look through how bad the covid rates are. Vesely would get good news from the vaccines, but that only justifies that camp. For me as a derivatives person, i say what is the secondorder effect that is happening with derivatives . Our people hedging under the hood . Are they nervous . The short answer is no. You dont see it priced into the upcoming dates we have for election confirmation. You dont see it in hedging demand. The Options Market also believes we are going to look through this into next year. Lisa and while on the technical front, there was a note out over the weekend from your colleague of jp morgan predicting that there will be in hundred 60 billion of selling of equities as the number of pensions and big investors rotate into that 60 40 portfolio. Do you think that is a possible tension heading into year end . Amy it is interesting you bring that up. Tension rebalancing is a sort of irregular occurrence. While that is something that is happening, one thing that we are also tracking is what is. Appening in the position data this group of investors, real money, as well as pensions at the start of the pandemic was and wely under invested, have seen this come into this market, and what are they doing . They are actually buying value and selling tech. The other part of this is this is sort of the opposite of what we have seen from the big retail that has driven a lot of the exuberance in tech. I think that there is still a lot of money on the sidelines that will come into value, but at the same time, we havent seen retail setups awaited for tech. I wonder if that could still provide a headwind as well. Tom this is too sophisticated for early monday morning. This is a really smart conversation, and important, folks. Amy, this comes in waves. , a bunch oftion physics talk for it comes in waves. What will you try to observe when tech does a little better, value cyclical eases off . What will you try to look for to see which way it cuts into the future . Last class was years ago. Tom mine was this weekend. Continue. [laughter] amy there you go. There are a couple of things we look for in terms of stats from options. Skew. At is really key is essentially the imbalance that we see between the put aside versus the call side. The reason this matters so much is this was one of the primary drivers we saw that really kept tech going, in particular in august. The Options Market itself was actually driving the market, but also for sentimental reasons. If we see this starting to Company Recovery name, which we havent really yet, that is a very strong line that you are going to get an Even Stronger inflection to this value side. Keenehe only skew in the house is should we wet brine or dry brine the turkey. Moneymaking, big decisions, do they get in the way of a rational reassessment year . Amy those trades which have been in the market have obviously, a lot of them have been rolled off, and others have not come in the money. Theres always a possibility for getting reloaded because that is a very large look money. Avenue no idea, obviously, if that is going to happen specifically for softbank come up with the other strong driver of that is retail, possibly more than softbank, although softbank is the one to gets written up the most. If that happens, you will start to see that skew go negative the way it goes for Something Like tesla. Lisa just to tie this all together, given all of these crosscurrents you are talking about, it seems like there isnt necessarily going to be the big pullback that some people who have come on this show are predicting, due to the fact that we are seeing a surge in virus cases. Do you think that is accurate . That given all of the uncertainty, given the fact that you are not seeing a big short position or anything in the Derivatives Market that would suggest turmoil, it is just going to be buy . Amy this is a question i thing about a lot. I think one thing to say is if there is a very sharp inflection as we have seen between value and tech, the issue is this is all going on under the hood. Your Overall Indexing levels may remain flat, even if you have very strong recovery names going up. I look back to 2016. Something very similar happen when trump became president. You saw a lot of under the Hood Movement with financial, industrial, and tech. The Overall Index basically kind of wafted along. Jonathan amy, great to catch up with you. Amy wu silverman of Rbc Capital Markets, thank you. This morning, more promising news from astrazeneca that gives this market a little bit more of a lift. Up 16 points on the s p 500. We advanced 0. 5 . Tom no question about that. It is a beautiful world, jon. Renminbi, 6. 56, holds on as well. Do you see what i am wearing today . Jonathan what are you wearing . Tom for bloomberg radio, they can tell lisa it is a bowtie. Tom no, i am out in blue, in tatts in tots blue. Tottenham blue. Jonathan were you happy with the result . Tom i thought it was just wonderful. I thought the other team didnt kick the ball from far out enough. They would have done better if they kick the ball farther out. Jonathan you should write a column on a monday. [laughter] i would read that. Tom nbc sports is all over me. Lisa kick the ball harder. Jonathan i am sure the team at nbc sports are kicking in this morning, quaking in their boots. [laughter] tom i am going to be on the zoom thing with vet bill. Jonathan coming up on this , be my, Vincent Reinhart melon chief economist. Coming up shortly, right here on bloomberg surveillance. Ritika that the first word news, im ritika gupta. Another promising develop and in the fight to end the coronavirus pandemic. A vaccine developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented a majority of people in a trial from getting the disease. It stopped in average of 70 from getting ill. That is below the high bar set by pfizer and moderna. Joe biden plans to name a longtime advisor Anthony Lincoln as secretary Anthony Blinken as secretary of state. He was deputy secretary of state. A former secretary clinton eight is likely to be named National Security advisor. The trump i adminstration will tech imports from 87 chinese companies, a move that could escalate tensions as the biden adminstration prepares to. Take over. Foxconn will finally stop mass plant willa finally start mass production at a plant championed by President Trump. The facility was unveiled too much fanfare in 2018, but has encountered delays several times after local officials cut subsidies. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Unemployment insurance runs out for many people at the end of the year, before joe biden takes office. The either should moratorium runs out at the end of the year, before the Eviction Moratorium runs out at the end of the year, before joe biden takes office. They have to be fixed under the Trump Presidency with the congressional lineup we have right now. Jonathan ron klain there, president elect bidens chief of staff. Good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the monday morning price action for you. In the equity market, a lift. Small caps outperform. Europe doing nicely. The s p up another 17 bones. We added 0. 5 . In the bond market, yields higher by two or three basis points. Lisa running through some of the treasury supply you can expect through the day and the week. Eurodollar briefly reclaiming a 1. 19 handle. We take out the lows of the year on the dollar index. Theou point out, the bbdxy, more broadly weighted dollar index which tilts away from the euro a little more and more towards the likes of offshore chinese currency, the mexican peso as well, that has hit a multiyear low. The dollar big we are looking for is starting to flush through this market the dollar peak we are looking for is starting to flush through this market. Tom no to the turkish lira goes the other way this day, finally some movement of of the big erdogan shift we saw last week. On the calendar forward of this thanksgiving week, we speak with kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. We saw a 37 page ruling by a federal judge in pennsylvania. There is no question the great desire of this president of drama, i am going to the Supreme Court. Does donald going to the spring court . Kevin right now to the Supreme Court . Kevin right now theres litter more than words spoken. Youve got Rudy Giuliani distancing himself and saying that Sidney Powell is not connected to the president s legal team. There doesnt seem, based upon conversations ive had, to be a coherent legal strategy in terms of getting the results overturned. Meanwhile, republicans coming out one by one and urging the president to start transition briefings. Senator pat toomey, lisa murkowski, and the list goes on. Tom i am going to be very direct here. In wisconsin, it seems like a ballot choice of looking at milwaukee, which is very democratic and very black, and looking at madison, which is very badger and very to the left of elizabeth warren. What is the president thinking going after wisconsin this late in the game . Kevin it is unclear. Tom i agree. Kevin you mentioned wisconsin, and you look at pennsylvania, just across the bridge to new jersey, where Chris Christie has called this a national embarrassment. It is just highprofile republicans who are now urging there to be some type of transition briefings pertaining to National Security and the coronavirus to start taking place. Jonathan a lot of people do. This government is already planning the future cabinet, so lets talk about president elect joe bidens future cabinet. What are you hearing at the moment . Forn tony blinken secretary of state. When i spoke with tony blinken several months ago, i asked him about how he would connect u. S. And china relations. What he told me is that he would try to restore u. S. Multilateralism in the sense of getting western allies on board in europe to be able to speak from the same geopolitical playbook in pressuring china to encourage Good Behavior beyond the state department. If you look beyond the names we are hearing for treasury, Lael Brainard is what i have been hearing over the past few weeks. Lisa tony blinken is a centrist. So far, the people tapped i the biden camp seem to lean center. How much pushback is there from the democratic progressive wing . Kevin based upon the conversations ive had for the past couple of weeks, they are less likely to pressure state department choices than they are for labor secretary or for their issei treasury secretary, or commerce. There is going to be a clear opportunity for progressives to try to make sure that they have some impact not just on those agencies that i listed, but also maybe even energy, and i think that is where the fight is going to play out. But if you look at some of the campaign statements, all of them spoke critically of china. Tony blinken has a history of not just aggressive rhetoric, but really trying to hold china accountable, and forming a broader coalition to do so. Lisa theres a lot of focus on Mitch Mcconnell and his role here. He is one of the republicans who has not come out and said President Trump should just concede, begin the transition. He also is one of the main obstacles to president elect biden getting through any kind of infrastructure plan, or that stopgap measure. Hes one of the big architects of a potential fiscal support bill in the near term. What is his game plan . What is his goal right now . Kevin that right there i think is the key point here because in terms of a centrist check on a biden adminstration, it runs through Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell. In the immediate short term, the december 11 deadline to keep the government funded, to provide some continuing resolution, and honestly, i think if you look beyond the headlines of what you saw secretary mnuchin do in trying to pressure the fed to give back some of their money with some of the lending acilities, i think there is broader conversation happening behind the scenes, based upon that sayave talked to they feel leader mccall leader mcconnell is making sure the money goes to the right places that has already been allocated and passed by congress. Tom there is a scene in the wonderful peter pan movie with Dustin Hoffman where he says bad form. It seems like everybody in the washington zeitgeist is looking for this president in his golf court and saying, bad form. . Hos going to advise this guy kevin i would need some pixie dust to try to predict how the next couple of weeks are going to go. Said, based as ive upon my reporting, i think that President Trump is trying to play the long game and figure out what his longterm strategy is in terms of being a kingmaker for the