Interesting to see the 2021 look forwards. All we have is good conversation and a look at the tea leaves. Lisa is going to talk about jobless claims and all the rest of it, but i want to look at the granularity. Is a pandemic ago stock, and there is the reality which i believe you mentioned yesterday. I cant remember which property you mentioned it on. You know what . Retail is really struggling. Jonathan this is the story. A stock like macys has done pretty well over the past week, but that is the difference between the ketchup trade the catchup trade and a durable trade. I think that is the story for hours. T couple of we got to get through the next couple of months. Tom i mean, it is a comedy. But this is not funny. In south australia, you can now not walk your dog because of pandemic fears. Talk ofes of the macro the Bloomberg NewEconomy Forum and the realities that lisa has been talking about here day by day. That gets your attention. Jonathan and initial jobless claims will get your attention as well. Lisa this goes to your point about the difficult here and now. My question is how much more permanent scarring are we going to get as a result of the difficult journey in the weeks and months ahead. 8 30, u. S. Initial jobless claims are expected to climb slightly from last week, but really we are looking at the number of firings. How many businesses are just simply shutting down as we see those virus numbers climb . 8 45 a. M. , you were talking about new york city. We are going to be talking about the dire situation for the public transit. The mta ceo joins us here on bloomberg television. They are facing massive cuts to service, firings of many employees because they have not. Otten that federal aid modernabe hearing from again on the promise of the fiber suitable promise of the pharmaceutical response. It will be interesting to see what the new reality is for big tech given the fact that so much hope has been baked into the stock prices and the stayathome trade. Jonathan lets get to the price action of this morning. This thursday morning, equities slightly negative. We bounce back a little bit on the s p 500, by 0. 3 . Small caps on the russell outperforming the nasdaq bite 9 since last monday. In the fx market, eurodollar 1. 1837. In the bond market, yields up to 97 basis points. 0. 8537 is your you love the 10 year, and the story has not changed. The questions we are asking has not changed. 2021 could be better, but is a tugofwar between the back end of 2021 and the reality of here and now. Tom on the bond market, we are not in on yield yet where the support gets broken, but it is something worth watching day after day. Youve got a wonderful guest that can meld all of this together. Jonathan weve got a wonderful guest. Keep the faith, trust the recovery. Andrew sheets joins us now, Morgan Stanley chief cross at that chief cross asset strategy. How much will that faith we tested in the coming months . Andrew good morning. We are clearly in for a very difficult winter. We think Economic Data is going to slow, certainly in the u. S. , and i think very importantly, you have had a lot of sentiment measures in the market become a lot more optimistic postelection, post some of this vaccine news, so that also needs to get worked off. But ultimately, i think these are shortterm issues for the market, not longterm issues for the market. I think this is about limited pullbacks that ultimately are going to get bought by the market because i do think that investors will look at weakness over the next couple of months as may be their last best chance to position for a more normalizing, stronger recovery in the year ahead. As it is that i think a lot of investors have gotten more optimistic postelection, in terms of the actual amount of money that has been deployed into the market, the actual shifts in investment approaches, i think those have been a lot more muted, so there is more of that rotation. Tom one of the great proxies here is the vix, a stunning 23. 57. That is a measure of uncertainty. What is the next uncertainty . , across your Asset Classes at Morgan Stanley, is the next great mystery out there . Andrew i think there are a few things we need to watch. I think there is some uncertainty about how much the market has internalized the rise in case counts we will see in the u. S. Going forward, and i do think this is also where a global perspective is necessary because the u. S. Case counts do look like they will continue to get much worse. Cases in europe are looking like they are stabilizing. Cases in asia are on a very different trajectory. Yes, i think the virus case count is a very here and now asue, but also somewhat of u. S. Focused issue. We also have some key government deadlines. We have a funding deadline coming in the middle of december to avoid a Government Shutdown. Is that theelief Market Expectations on further fiscal stimulus are low, so the disappointment from anything would be modest, but i think that is another uncertainty the market would like to get through. Lisa you say there are all these uncertainties in the near term, but longerterm it is looking bright. Bond markets are not buying the optimism. You can see yields trending lower, yield curves flattening. You can see breakeven rates coming down. This does not bode well longerterm. It does not fit with the narrative many people are offering up to go into cyclical stocks at this point. Whos got it wrong . Andrew i think that is a great point. I think what we are seeing and bond markets is inconsistent with our story of a stronger viewery next year, so our is we think the bond market yields will adjust higher rather than the cyclicals in the equity market ultimately adjusting a lot lower over the next 12 months. I do think this is about getting through the winter peak. Our analysts think that peak could come sometime around late december or early january. I think once you can see the downward slope of u. S. Cases, i think it will be a lot harder for u. S. Yields to potentially hold their current levels. If we think about the arithmetic for next year, ellen zentner, our u. S. Economist, has both had about 6 next year, and we have a you best in your yield at less than 1 . A u. S. 10 year yield at less than 1 . Line, it can make some sense that that is supporting bond yields for now, but this might be the best support those yields get because this is the most uncertain things will get. The closer we get to january 1, the more that support starts to fade away. Bullish, you guys are looking for 1. 45 on the u. S. Tenyear. Experience here i think is really important. The experience of spring. I wonder whether the lessons we learned from spring are the right lessons. We have to shut down a new york on march 13. 10 days later, the market bottomed. The market bottomed the fed stepped in and started buying credit. I wonder whether that is the right lesson, the degree to which we have been conditioned by spring, and why some people refuse to sell risk going into a dark winter. Tom this is really critical. Is he fed going to stun us with action . Andrew i think it is. I dont think the fed will stun us with action, but it will remind us that the fed is still providing liquidity. This is a really critical difference with some past cycles. A reason why we think the bond market is wrong as we do not think we are heading to japanification scenario because we had a far more aggressive fiscal and Monetary Policy response than we ever saw in japan. I think the fact that the fed has reduced some of that tail risk, the fed can kind of help spring,t bridge to the i think that is very important for keeping equity corrections to the singledigit level rather. Han the doubledigit level jonathan to constructive outlook for major sheets, thank you. Constructive outlook with andrew sheets, thank you. If you add a ton of debt to an economy, your tolerance for higher Interest Rates is greatly reduced. The dynamism around that economy is also diminished because you are keeping bad companies, so to speak, alive to some extent. Weve all talked about the zombie economy. I think it is pretty understandable to expect inflation to be lower. Is that the kind of story we need to be taking about . Tom i dont know if lisa is still there, but frankly, it is about the debt and the deficit. Lisa i am still here, and that is exactly the point of low growth going forward. That is exactly the point the central bankers have been making, that there outlook is not materially changed as a result of the vaccine. Jonathan keep the faith. No faith in lisas ability to put up with us for longer than 10 minutes. [laughter] is she still there, 12 minutes into the show . Coming up in the next hour, pat foy, mta chairman and ceo. Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika joe biden warns that the delay in starting the president ial transition could set back the efforts to distribute a coronavirus vaccine. The General Services administration has refused to begin the process while President Trump the election results. Leaders of the national so season of manufacturers is urging the Trump Administration to begin working with biden. In wisconsin, Election Officials have ordered a partial vote recount that was requested by the trump campaign. There will be recounts in two heavily democratic counties. Recounts have historically shifted only hundreds of votes. The controversial nomination of judy shelton to the Federal Reserve board is hanging by a thread, and there is little chance it will be revived. The senate is preparing for its thanksgiving recess. Once lawmakers return, democrats will be picking up another seat. That makes confirming shelton an even tougher battle. The u. K. And canada are on the brink of reaching a postbrexit trade deal. That would avert each side imposing tariffs when the transition period ends. An agreement could be announced within days. The city of Phoenix Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Mr. Biden i cant do any of this until i am sworn in. I mean, theres hardly been a meeting that has taken place in the white house about any of this. Jonathan the pressure intensifying just a little bit from the bite side. That was president elect joe biden on the transition process. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Lets touch base on the price action this thursday morning as we count you down to initial jobless claims, one hour and 12 minutes away. Four, futures are down off by 0. 1 . 0. 5 on the week by about coming into thursday. Treasury yields coming down a basis point to 0. 857 . Stronger against pretty much everything with the exception of the turkish lira. Dive, aira taking a 470 point hike from the turkish central bank. Tom we didnt see it to the the othersome of technical indicators, but yes, strong lira. It was a good day for mr. Erdogan. Right now, Kevin Cirilli joins us from washington. We can talk about turkish relations. Mr. Cirilli channeling roy orbison this morning. I want to talk about only the lonely at the white house, which looks like a fundraising concern. I want to cut to the chase. Is all of this angst we are seeing about the president raising money . Kevin in terms of fundraising, it is really going to come down to whether President Trump wants to try to make a calculation beyond the january 5 runoff in georgia. I was speaking to sources yesterday, and they are telling me the president and his inner circle is still trying to figure out what their longterm objectives are. Is it to get into game for 2022 . Is it to get in conservative media circles . Is it to run for reelection or play a kingmaker of sorts in 2024 . In just a few weeks, on december 11, when the continuing resolution is set to expire in washington, that could be the last opportunity that this president has two really shake up something with congress, and mark meadows, his chief of staff, was on capitol hill yesterday. After that meeting, he said he couldnt guarantee that there wouldnt be another Government Shutdown. President ses the advantage of doing a shut down as he is packing his bags . Kevin this would be the third Government Shutdown and his presidency, should there be one, the last one having lasted more than a month. In terms of what it should mean, it would be an opportunity for there to be a fiscal fight potentially over stimulus. This as republicans are divided in terms of the scope of another round of stimulus. Jonathan a Government Shutdown when part of the country are locking down. What happened to the senate yesterday . Where are they now . How long are they gone for . Kevin they are gone until at least after the thanksgiving holiday, and then they come back for that continuing resolution. The positive development on the vaccination front, despite the surge in hospitalizations over the past couple of weeks not just in the United States come about around the world, and of course what has been going on in new york city, a clear illustration front and center about what people are not only having to face from a schooling perspective, but also from a public official and employee perspective. Amplifying is really the debate in washington, but as you just alluded to, they are not going to be here for at least another week. Lisa you said it is amplifying the debate. Is there a sense of urgency . It is not just new york city. We talk so much about new york city, but frankly, cases are spiking in the central part of the United States. This is a real issue across the nation. Is there no urgency . Kevin i think that is a great point. I spoke with a republican congressman from indiana, with the 45th worst covid rates in the world. The positive develop and some the vaccination front are having democrats are urging for there to be more stimulus, and leader mcconnell and republicans saying it is the fourth quarter, to ride it out. They are dug in, ended there is no compromise. Lisa and remind me of what jamie dimon said yesterday. It is ridiculous. Just get something done. Is that what we are heading toward, or can they not flip the baby . Tom where are we on stimulus, if jamie dimon says it is chump change . Kevin i think the business round table is sending clear signals that they are playing the shortterm game in terms of what is next on january 21, so they are already laying the groundwork in terms of how that is going to look. I was struck by senator Lindsey Graham yesterday, essentially said that President Trump ought to be briefing on National Security as well as on coronavirus, with president elect joe biden. He didnt refer to him as such, but it was a clear indication that there can still be lingering questions in the courts while also briefing the transition team. Tom jon, are you still with us . [laughter] jonathan still here, standing by. I havent left. Ive come close, though. Trade to catch up. Ive tried to walk out a few times, and management has brought me back in. Lisa go on. Jonathan kevin, thank you. Do you want me to tell you more of the story . Lisa lets go. Weve got all morning. Jonathan , and i have had our blowups in the past, i thing it is fair to say. Im not sure that is a surprise to anybody. Ago when this was just on radio, i could step away and then management could pull me back in and push me back into the studio, and now i dont have that option. The problemle is when you get your entourage, and management can see you making your exit. Lisa this is the reason why jon is carried to set. Tom youve got it right. [laughter] jonathan kicking and screaming. I think what you did about three minute ago is really important. There is something quite New York Center about some of the country stations some of the conversations we have sometimes. It was how the market responded to new york schools shutting down. The market actually responded to that, as if that was a surprise. As if it had to be new york to wake up to what was happening in the rest of the country. Tom i know a guy who did a masters at Washington University in st. Louis, and he correlated Natural Gas Prices with the temperature at the subway entrance to wall street. It is a 76 correlation. Jonathan there you go. Tom thats all you need to know. [laughter] it is all new york. Jonathan absolutely. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Here in london and new york, coming up on this program, lisa hornby, schroeder investment portfolio manager. I promise we will all still be here. [laughter] i cant make promises for tom. I never can. 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Go to aerotrainer. Com, thats aerotrainer. Com. Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. The questions of the last week havent changed. How much confidence do you have in 2021, and how much bad news are you willing to tolerate . Heres the price action of this thursday morning. Equity futures declined by about 0. 1 on the s p 500, but the story of the last week or so is about the spread between the s p 500, the nasdaq, and the russell. Monday, 7 to 9 of outperformance on the