Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power July 11, 2024

Save the lives of one of your childrens teachers, maybe it saves your life. Please, i implore you, wear a mask. Do it for yourself. Do it for your neighbor. A mask is not a political statement. It is a good way to start pulling the country together. I want to be very clear. The goal of mask wearing is not to make your life less comfortable. It is to take or take something away from you. It is to give Something Back to all of us. A normal life. The goal is to get back to normal as fast as possible. Masks are critical in doing that. It will not be forever. That is how we will get our nation back, back up to speed economically. We can go back to celebrating birthdays and holidays, so we can attend sporting events, so we can back to the live and connections we shared before the pandemic. It does not matter who you voted for. We are americans in our country is under threat. We are now called to do the same thing generations of proud americans have done when faced with crisis throughout our history. Rise above our differences to defend the strength and vitality of our nation. That is the character of patriots, that is the character of america. We have to do this together. Wearing a mask may seem like a small act, maybe you think your individual choice will not make a difference. Throughout our history, we have seen over and over how small acts at up to enormous achievements. It is the weight of many small acts together that bend the arc of history. I know there is nothing the American People cannot accomplish when we Work Together as one people, one mission. We can get this virus under control, i promise you. We can rebuild our economy back better than it was before. We can address racebased disparities that damage our country. It is in our power. Lets wear our mask. Lets get to work. Thank you. All thoseyou for whove lost somebody, our heart goes out to you. We know what it is like. Our heart goes out to you. May god protect our Health Care Workers and all americans. Thank you. This is balance of poweron Bloomberg Television and radio. I am david westin. Joee just been listening to announce the covid19 transition Advisory Board which will advise him. Wellknown doctors and Public Health officials will be advising him and the Vice President elect on what to do once they take office to combat the coronavirus and he laid out a comprehensive list of things to be done, everything from providing guidelines to figure out how to distribute a vaccine when it becomes available, providing personal protective equipment. Well have to fight this virus together and we can do it by wearing masks. He said without regard to whether we are democrats or republicans, we can beat this. The American People can beat any challenge. That is the president elect with his first addressing of the issue he thought was number one, which is covid19. Kinch,g in dr. Michael director of the center for research and Drug Discovery of the Washington University of st. Louis. Thank you for being with us. You always point out you are not a medical doctor but you get to be called doctor nonetheless. Give us a sense of what has triggered this today. We had the announcement from pfizer for drug trials on a promising, 90 e ability to fight off the virus. Be . Excited should we the markets are excited. Dr. Kinch we should be encouraged. It is still early. It is early in that we do not know how many people will end up being protected with vaccine. 90 number is a round number. It is based upon what appears to be a good beginning data sets, but there will still be question. My brief reading of the data is there were a handful of people that were vaccinated that nonetheless came down with cove with covid. The question is are the particular populations, based on age or race or gender, any number of different demographics, but again this is far better news to have a 90 protection rate with a vaccine that appears to be safe than not to have that data. David you just at the magic words. Appears to be safe. I understand there is further testing that needs to be done to ensure safety. Already i am hearing people say you have to worry about autoimmune deficiency. What are we looking for on the safety aspect . Dr. Kinch we need to track it over time. It takes the immune system weeks or months to take off and respond to the vaccine. If by bad luck it turns out we end up targeting normal tissue of the body that might cause an inflammatory type response, we need to know that and understand all of the different vaccine trials we are undergoing. I am on a vaccine trial and they will be monitoring me for 26 months. David that is interesting. Youre a subject. You do not know if you got the placebo or the real thing . Dr. Kinch i have no idea. David come back to the 90 number. We love to jump on numbers. Give us a sense. If it did prove to be 90 effective, how does that rank as opposed to other vaccines . Dr. Kinch it is on the positive side. A lot of childhood vaccine are in the 90 level, but more important than anything are the two things to remember, one positive and one negative. The positive is if we can establish what has been characterized or mischaracterized as herd immunity, which is basically we can get enough of the population protected through vaccination such that a virus has a hard time finding those few people who are still susceptible, that is the positive. 90 appears to be above the number that has been projected to get herd immunity, which has been estimated to be in the 70 to 75 range. The negative is there is tilde 10 of the population, especially in the short term, before herd immunity gets established, that will be susceptible to this virus. David is you been saying very wisely, and President Biden said that in his statement, lets not get ahead of ourselves but we cannot go too fast. Lets assume the testing proves out, it has this level of effectiveness. What you know about this vaccine. We have heard from some live to be stored in very cold temperatures, for example. Dr. Kinch distribution on this and the logistics will be a major challenge. For this vaccine and some of the others. What we have heard is the temperature required to maintain this is about 100 celsius, which means most conventional freezers will not work. It will take deep freezers that are prone to breakdowns and other things, plus they are extremely expensive. Another major issue will be vaccine waste for a standard vaccine come up to a quarter of all of the vaccines manufactured cannot be used because the cold chain went off, which means it spoiled. That will be a big problem with vaccine that requires 100 degrees celsius storage. David it seems like only yesterday we were talking about personal protective equipment, ventilators, we do not have enough of them, we have enough of those deep freezers, will we have a bottleneck in manufacturing enough capacity to distribute before you get to the logistics . Dr. Kinch i would imagine we are. There are two problems. One will be there will be a big rush for these deep freezers or alternatives, for example, liquid nitrogen might be utilized. ,here at least we have capacity but we have not distributed or used it in this way before. Theyre going to be challenges in training, and having the material, but the other problem returning to deep freezers, because theyve had to work so hard, the compressors have had to work so hard, they tend to fail frequently. A failed freezer means the vaccine could be ruined. We are going to run into these challenges. There will be occasional setbacks, but overall we will move forward. David so helpful. Thank you for spending your time today. It informed us all quite a bit. Oft is Michael Kinch Washington University in st. Louis. Now we want to turn to the remarkable Market Movement today. We welcome paul christopher. Thank you for being with us. We just heard we should not get too excited about this but it looks like the markets are off to the races. Thats right. The markets have reacted any time we have had positive news on a vaccine and this is the most positive news yet. As you heard the doctor mentioned, there are logistical issues keeping the virus cold, but the distribution we do not know what the side effects will be, how many people might differ from taking the vaccine because theyre afraid of side effects. We do not know how that contributes to herd immunity. , we still have Market Sentiment taking support from alternatives to a Silver Bullet vaccine, including things like cross immunity from other vaccines and more Rapid Testing in tracing to reduce transmission. You put that together with the news that begin to emerge last week about a potentially divided government, the markets have two things to run with in a rally. David that is the question. What are they pricing in, and are they overpricing . On both the election of president elect biden with the divided senate as well as this vaccine, are we getting too far ahead of ourselves, are we hoping ourselves to success . Come if you remember 2016 the election then was also a surprise and markets ram hard before coming back down to earth and recognizing that political agendas take time to develop your there is opposition. Things do not things do not get done quite as fast as one would think they will. The pricing after an election can tend to be too extrapolating. Trends weike certain believe will still be in place over the coming months, and we think investors, especially investors with cash should be looking to put the cash to work incrementally. Not ignoring what is going on but not throwing all of the chips in right now as prices rise. Think a gradual approach we like the u. S. Better than overseas, we like u. S. Large and midcaps better than small caps. We like the tech related sectors. There is still quite a covid inated stayathome trade information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, companies that deliver products to your door that you order online, and we like health care. A lot of those trends could be helped by the political environment. Take a divided government. You might not see quite the rush to regulate tech and social media Going Forward. That has helped tech. You might see more work on vaccines. That is helped health care. Health care will also be helped of divided government means the parties cannot comment to a way to change the managed care industry. That would certainly help managed care. We already have a lot of favorites we think the market will benefit over the coming months. We would not rush to put cash to work. Lets do it in a disciplined way. David travel stop shooting up, including cruise lines and banks. The banks stand to benefit here . Paul potentially, if the idea banks may not be as regulated Going Forward or Economic Growth improves enough the yield curve could steepen and longterm rates could rise and give banks a break in terms of lending rates, that could help banks. That seems premature. Also the travel and leisure seems premature to us. That is an extrapolation based on what results we have seen in the last week from the election. We are still a long way from being able to go back to normal. That is not a political question, that is a covid question, that is a biological question that has resisted our best attempts. We think covid will be with us for some time. David spent a minute on bonds. The yield wasme so low it did not make any sense to use it for a hedge. It has shot up almost 13 basis points. Stocks, mightike have a shorterterm reaction related to the vaccine news. Certainly related to the political news, especially if the market thinks growth will be the outcome 12 months from now, that rates could be higher. We will maintain an unbiased view on rates. We would hold the long and intermediate term rate bonds at close to longterm target allocations. We are not persuaded we have a sustainable move higher in the slope of the yield curve. David terribly helpful. That is paul christopher, head of Global Market strategy at wells fargo investment institute. Coming, Governor Phil Murphy of new jersey gives us his views on a biden presidency and what it means for the pandemic and the economy. That is next. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio theory Bloomberg Television and radio. David one of the states hit hard by the pandemic and the economic downturn has been new jersey. We talk with the democratic governor, phil murphy, about how joe biden presidency could change things for his state. Gov. Murphy we are at the bottom of a u. I wish it were the bottom of a v, but we are bumping along. I inherited a state that had mismanaged its physical reality for decades, both sides of the aisle. Agree with do not their decision. The other rating agencies held us where we are. We have people coming into new jersey. We have a big innovation economy, which is continuing to grow. Our location is second to none. Getting our infrastructure rebuilt has a Huge Positive economic impact. There is no question this pandemic has thrown every state a haymaker and will be taking be your and we will digging out. David do anticipate further tax increases . Gov. Murphy i dont. I think we have done what we are going to do. We need a big federal stimulus at the state level. David that is an issue not just for the present, but he Needs Congress to go along. That is been an issue for republicans in the senate. You are reason to hope they can go away from that . Will not be it surprised, i take great exception to the statements. We were making an enormous amount of progress on those socalled legacy issues. We do not need the federal government. We need the federal government to allows to continue to serve our people in this time of need to keep frontline workers, firefighters, police, Health Care Workers in their jobs. I am optimistic. The speaker and secretary mnuchin got close. I think President Trump at least before the election, wants to see that done. I think Mitch Mcconnell is somebody who, while not in favor of the level of stimulus we need, has at least said things in a positive direction of late. I have quiet optimism because it will benefit everybody, red, blue, and in between. David we had quite a few infrastructure weeks under President Trump. At the same time, president elect biden says he wants to do it. Let me be specific. What about the rail tunnel under the hudson river . I understand there is money waiting for it. Gov. Murphy the answer is unequivocably gas. When it comes to President Trump, he has green lit the portal north bridge, which is the first step on that project, but the far bigger pieces of those tunnels under the hudson and further work on both the new jersey and new york side, i am highly optimistic that will get green lit. Resident elect biden knows this project very well and understands the significance for our economy, for job creation. I would say unequivocably that will happen. David is it shovel ready . When can you actually have people working on the project . Gov. Murphy it is shovel ready. You could envision putting a shovel in the ground First Quarter next year. David it feels like the countries on the brink of a new regime and we will see where it takes us with President Biden. Are you concerned about setting expectations too high . People expect things to turn around right away. Does President Biden need to manage expectations . Gov. Murphy i think he does. I think the American People get that were will get it. We have big challenges. This is exactly the man to do it , exactly the administration for this moment in time. It is not a light switch. Whether it is our domestic challenges, our Foreign Policy challenges, we are all in this together. It will take us a while to get here. Whether that is the pandemic, economic recovery, you name it. We are america. We are far from perfect, but we are the greatest nation on earth and this is exactly right leader for this moment in time. David part of my interview with new jersey Governor Phil Murphy. Ons is balance of power Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power. It is the first trading day for the president elect, joe biden. It is quite a day. The markets are on a run. Scarlet it is a vote of confidence for the divided government we are likely to get. Jp morgan says the joe Biden Victory is a bully outcome for u. S. Equities. He calls it a market nirvana. Getre seeing value stocks their moment, especially after the pfizer vaccine. While pfizer is part of the doubt until i remembered it got kicked out of the dow. In november the dow is the best performing index. Pfizer rose as much as 15 of its biggest gain ever. If seeng to barclays, the vaccine generating more than 3 billion of revenue. We go past the short term, medium and longterm sustainability is a question mark because we do not know how long the vaccine protection last and it is not clear what pricing of the vaccine will look like. Pfizer did not accept government funding from the operation warp speed project. Adrs are flying come up 10 . Volume is off the chart. At midday, 10 million shares changed hands, that is four times the average over the last 10 months. Working on a vaccine candidate that uses similar signs. It is up as well. Astrazeneca is down. The u. K. Trial data doing coming months, the u. S. Data not until the first half of next year. There is also concerned longterm studies will abandon projects once the vaccine is deemed effective. David thank you for that report unremarkable markets. Up next, we beg

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