Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240711

Fromsion off of the news pfizer. Lets just frame where this market is. Ill let lisa worry about bonds. I am looking for an entry point, and i dont have one coming with s p futures out to record highs, up 120. Jonathan lets get straight to the price action of this moment. Equity futures are absolutely surging, up by 3. 3 . It is a huge turnaround. On the 30 year we go about to 88 basis points. A bit of dollar weakness back through this market, just south of 1. 19. A vaccine possibly helping us normalize this global economy. What does that mean . Bti with a 40 handle. Lisa it looks like pfizer will get some of the safety data necessary to see whether they can get some of the emergency approval to roll this out. This is what everyone has been waiting for. I simply, what is the Circuit Breaker to the surge in covid cases we have seen . Could this be yet . The market is saying yes, and the chances of higher growth, very high according to the market trade this morning. We can bring in sams now ofe Sam Fazeli Bloomberg intelligence. What are we learning now this morning . Sam this is incredible data. , it is the press release beyond what i expected it to be. It is above 90 protected in. Erms of efficacy i really dont think it couldve got any better than this at this stage of the readout. The data can change when more patients are recorded, but at this stage, it could not of been better. Tom we are thrilled to have you on today, with your work out of cardiff and your doctorate in pharmacology. A 97 success rate. Dr. Fauci and others have talked about a 75 success rate, so aope for us the success of 97 efficacy for this vaccine. Sam flu vaccines, we have seen efficacy in the low 30s or 20s, up to about 60 action. When we are talking about above 90 , lets not forget the primary endpoint of this trial was to reduce cough and fever. What that means is severe cases are much lower than what you would expect in a normal set up. If i may add, another element that is really exciting is that this technology lends itself very well to developing many versions of this. Mutant ends up being a virus that can surpass , it tookicular vaccine them six months to do this. The could do it again. Tom what is the next step for pfizer . What is phase fazeli right now for pfizer . Sam they have a pretty decent number to go to the regulators and ask for emergency use authorization. Unfortunately we have to check our enthusiasm a bit, continue to wear our masks and keep our distance, because weve only got 50 million doses by the end of the year. Next year is a different story. But dont forget, the next one we will hear from will be but debts will be moderna will be moderna. It may not be as effective, but will still be a useful weapon in trying to get as many people vaccinated as possible. Lisa thats exec he where i wanted to go, the rollout of these vaccines, how quickly we could try to stop the covid surge we are seeing now. How likely is it that the safety data we are looking for is going to be sufficient to give people confidence to start unrolling this in billions of doses . Sam you are going to have to accept some risk. Orn we get to next week thereabouts, pfizer should have about two months of data on about 20,000 people, did thousand of whom wouldve been vaccinated. By the time this thing is approved and decent volume comes in, there will be given more safety data. We should not get too comfortable with this because it is sterile and fair mental still in experimental vaccine. It is a complex disease. But what we have seen so far is the best we couldve expected at this stage. Fazeli,ses ellie sam thank you so much. As we begin our simulcast, but i would note, on a percentage percentage basis, spx 3 now, while the nasdaq is behind. Jonathan that relative trade is going to be the focus of many people. It was the election last week. Ismagine the pfizer news going to throw a wrench into all of that. Is much and the nasdaq smaller than the s p 500. Futures advancing 115, up a little more than 3 . It is that cyclical tilt that the vaccine will breathe a little bit of life into. You will see the movie treasuries lower, yields higher the move in treasuries lower, the yields higher. I think it is really important to recognize a couple of things. Theres two phases to all of this. The first phase is the next several months. We had an increase in covid infections in the United States. Utah the latest to implement new restrictions, following massachusetts in the last week. Then we get out to the new year. Getting out of the new year, which also simultaneously lead you to understand what the policy outlook down in washington d c might look like, so it is a delicate time for that trade between the cyclical tilt and the more defensive secular posture that the nasdaq offers you. Tom we welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television. Now with the markets, mark howard joins us, bnp paribas specialist. I want to go right to the mathematics you studied years ago. Theres a thing called a jump condition. As that what we are in right now . Ork whether it is a jump just a surge of derisking of hedges, it is definitely a volatile warning. You got a number of narratives that play. People are looking beyond the bottom of the virus. Until you have a vaccine, you couldnt really look beyond the bottom, but if we get more data like visors and good results out of moderna cash for data like zers and good results more data like pfizers and good results out of moderna, that could change. Last week we saw Global Players pivoting on the election, and we saw retail and investors pivoting. He saw that in the etf flows and in the tech space. We did not see the major institutions. We did not see the major hedge funds because there was still around theainty virus, which was clearly spiking. Now those players are likely to pile in and readjust, especially because of the seasonals, and that is what is really important here. The reporting ahead of the fiscal year for many of these companies, they want to put the position on in q4 to ride in q1. Lisa you said this could be partly a whipsaw as people unwind hedges. Can you talk about the next two weeks,three weeks, four as a market for to serpent . What are you looking as a Market Participant . As youe you looking for have to start considering fiscal support and other measures that are the presiding narratives of the market . Mark i wouldnt want to be too hasty in jumping in around a pfizer announcement. I am certainly not a medical expert. But the park at seems to be voting but the market seems to be voting. Most of it is hedges coming off, but we have to get through this transition in washington, hopefully in a smooth way, and then get a sense of what kind of with. E biden will come up expert, are a medical as far as we are concerned. How much money is on the sideline . , 29638. Res i am looking for an entry point. How any people out there are actually looking for an entry point out there, waking up with a massive hangover like ferro saturday morning . Mark i nosa people who are in triple leverage cash i know some people who are in triple levered cash. [laughter]. Onathan we do too mark the move you saw in yields last week and the move up in equities creates a real challenge for many foundations, endowments, Insurance Companies when they look out five years in terms of expected returns, so they need to lay on risk. They need to buy their preferred assets, whether it is highyield, credit, em before the markets get away from them. That is one of the things happening today, whether they were in cash or sitting in treasuries. They need to deploy that capital because it looks like the train may leave the station. Jonathan for our audience worldwide, if you just tuning in, some news from pfizer. It is not conclusive news, but encouraging news over the develop and of their vaccine. The price response is pretty clear. Equities higher. It is where equities are higher that is interesting. It is not the nasdaq. It is not even the s p 500. The russell is absolutely flying, up by 7 . Compare that to what you are seeing in the nasdaq, up by about 0. 7 . It is that cyclicality that makes a return this monday morning off the back of that headline. Tom it is a lift on presumed aggregate demand. I am looking at the photo out of paris over the pfizer vaccine, and all i can say is the shot looks like a huge needle. Are you going to hold my hand when i get the shot . Lisa i promise i will hold your hand. I will buy you a drink, and we will go get that truck together. When we talk shot together. When we talk about American Airlines shares up more than 15 , when we talk about the most beaten up stocks and the ones that will be rewarded on the other side. Jonathan we thought we would start this program on the prospect of a contested, drawn out transition between President Donald Trump and president elect joe biden. Now we look ahead to january. As we experience this price action this morning, how important is what happened in georgia for your outlook . What happens with the senate . To what extent does that determine what happens in d. C. Enter outlook on markets . Mark great question. I do believe what the market is telling you today is that the virus and Economic Growth is more important than the gyrations in d. C. , but those gyrations are very important, particularly that they go a split, and even with government, that would be fined. That would be fine with markets. In the unlikely event that democrats take both seats, i also believe the markets will be fine with that. I think it is a lesser story than Global Growth and recovery from this pandemic. Tom mark howard, thank you so much for joining us. , and the dow5 futures are up 1492 right now. Cirilli, and kevin i am going to start with a snarky question, but also important. If this occurred a week ago, with this election have been different . Kevin i think without question, even the developments of what has gone on on the medical front itterms of the vaccinations, has largely followed this rout with vaccinations. I think all talk in washington, d. C. Turns to president elect joe bidens administration. Later this morning, the president elect is going to announce his covid19 task force. Without question, this is just another develop and that will be of interest. Dr. Fauci, as the president elect has said during the campaign, will no doubt still continue to play a key role in that task force. Tom one of the mysteries of saturday and sunday, no doubt. I believe the 46th president of , like the 45thes President Donald Trump, likes a stock market that has gone up. Is this a norm is market enough to make the president visible this morning . Kevin first and foremost, many republicans have founded concerning, the president s lack of communication as it relates to where things stand right now for their legal challenges that they are still pursuing, that the president s current Reelection Campaign says they are still pursuing. Secondly, prominent republicans spoke out over the weekend, including former president george w. Bush, as well as senator mitt romney from utah. Ive got my eye on Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell because he has to do to things. First and foremost, maintain a republican majority in the january 5 Georgia Runoff Senate elections. They are going to decide whether or not he remains the Senate Majority leader or minority leader. There is a lot at stake. Finally, i think Greg Valliere points this out really great in his note this morning, which is essentially, the math in terms of how i president elect biden can get his cabinet appointees through the senate is really interesting. Even if republicans are not able to win the georgia runoff, leader macconnell, or minority leader macconnell, would then be able to pressure some democrats to prevent some farleft progressive pix from getting confirmed. In thehe main narrative market has moved on from who is going to be president , and the certainty seems baked in. We are also going to have a split congress, according to markets. I am wondering if you compare the vaccine news we got this morning, the efficacy of the pfizer vaccine, can you pair that with the impetus to get some kind of fiscal support past . Does this greatly diminish the urgency you will hear throughout the halls to get something passe something throughout the halls to get something passed . Kevin even though this news is a great develop and from a medical standpoint and obviously from a market perspective, more importantly, there is still an uptick in cases around the country and throughout europe. As we have seen, europe has had to increase some of their restrictions, and the United States hasnt really reconciled that as of now. The biggest pressure for fiscal stimulus based upon the conversations i have with members of congress is an uptick in cases. If states have two start to impose new restrictions, that could put a lot of pressure on lawmakers. Forget about whether it is before or after inauguration day. It could put a lot of pressure on lawmakers even now. Jonathan we have seen restrictions in massachusetts, from utah overnight as well. It comes back to the transition over the next three months or so and the importance of it. If we can develop a vaccine, and news this morning is encouraging, how thistant is it that when is ready to go, it is ready to go . Kevin i think the private there ons really been this. I think the supply chain is , and the bureaucratic officials in washington, d. C. In the career officials here have been planning for quite some time with the private sector on the supply chain. So to be honest, i think that it would be deployed fairly rapidly because the infrastructure is already there. The flu shot, for example, is a great example of how the infrastructure is already there. But in terms of the trust in a america will be paying attention to the president elects covid19 task force he is going to announce in the next couple of hours. Tom maybe a different tone, and certainly they will bounce off of the news from pfizer. Our chiefee you, washington correspondent. We must refrain, with the dow adding more than 1500 points moments ago. I want to look at the vix. On the go and far away, the vix explodedaybe a 14, and on a day in february, lets call it february 24 or 25. We returned this morning not to valentines day, when you overpaid for roses, but we do return to february 24, when you set out a 12 month plan to pay for the roses. Jonathan weve got a lot of data here at bloomberg, but my chart doesnt go all the way back to your youth. That is the story on my terminal. [laughter] lisa harsh. Jonathan let to get to the price action. Equity futures are really nicely bid, but it is where you got the rally that really counts. Two narratives totally colliding within the space of a couple of hours. If you ask someone earlier this moaning about the market, they would talk about the defensive secular tilt towards the nasdaq, the emphasis on the qe trade come on Monetary Policy away from fiscal, and just like that, encouraging news on the vaccine front. Then youve got that cyclical story that just kicks back in. Yields up by almost 10 basis points to 92 basis points, and it is not just about the index level. Sector story this morning. You mentioned the airlines. Look at the theaters as well. Entertainment shares up more than 60 . Just to give you a sense of how big this rally is, basically distances that would otherwise be left for dead suddenly getting resurrected this morning. Jonathan just making it up as we go along, this morning weve got something to get your hands around. Tom no question about that, with the market up 124 points. On policy now in washington, and folding it into this news from pfizer if you are just joining us, pfizer with a 90 success rate on their vaccine. All you need to know is our sam fazeli says that is an extreme their number. Isaac told handsy joints isaac boldtansky joins from Compass Point research. Difference between now and waiting for the inauguration of the president elect . Isaac i think the way we should think about this is enjoy this headline, and as jon said, this is a tear up the script kind of day. Forward, i think the focus is going to be on this transition and the stimulus. On the transition side, the first thing that the Biting Campaign is doing in its transition is focusing on the virus. They will be an announcement later today of a senior team that will focus on that, which should provide some degree of federal strategy that i think will be market positive. Second, we will have some degree of fiscal stimulus. I am still bearish on it happening in the lameduck just because i think theres going to be this fog of disdain and distress down here, especially given that the president is unlikely to concede. But even if we get a vaccine very quickly, which i know we are all hopeful for, the ark to normalcy is still unclear, and we are going to have to address some of the economic scarring from washingtons inability to act on fiscal stimulus over the past few months. Jonathan i want you to talk to us about the transition and fill in some gaps for us. What typically happens this first week after the election result, and what isnt happening now that you think is really important . Isaac we are still waiting for the Actual Movement from the gsa, which is a technical part of the transition that would allow for individuals from the Biden Campaign and Transition Team to begin entering the with theand working Trump Administration officials. Everything is slower than we wouldve hoped, and i think that probably wouldve been true just given the realities of the virus as well. But at this point, it is about personnel. I think the market is going to focus on when the Biden Administration is thinking about personnel. Top regulatory positions, for example. Lets see who is brought in on energy, the environment, health care, and other areas. To me, it is just about personnel right now, and who has bidens ear. Jonathan great to catch up, as always. Thank you. There of Compass Point research. If you are just joining, news from pfizer that the vaccine being developed by them has 90 ofted infections, the most encouraging news weve had on the vaccine front in several months. The preliminary results paving the way for the company to seek emergency youth authorization from regulators. This is encouraging. Not conclusive just yet, but certainly encouraging. Is columbus right now, up 1492. A little scope and scale their, jon. Jonathan thank you, tom keene. A lot of work still to do on the vaccine front, but this market is running away with it. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This get straight to the price action this morning. The move in equity futures is just clear and obvious off the back of that headline from pfizer. Futures up, but it is the nuance around this. You need to watch the spread between the nasdaq and the s p 500 futures. S p 500 futures have a bigger lift, but within the russell, the small caps, youve got that cyclical tilt that really gave things a lift. You want to the defense of secular story you get from the nasdaq, or the more optimistic cyclicality you could get from the russell. Switch of the board and the bond market. The bond market the last couple of weeks felt like one big qe trade. You saw that this morning in italy, with the btp 10 year yield at alltime lows. What do you get off the back of the vaccine headline that is encouraging . Treasuries, sovereigns lower. Take the emphasis once again off of the story on Monetary Policy. Yields up on the tenure to 90 basis points that is the story and bonds. To finish with Foreign Exchange quickly, in an fx market, risk on with a cyclical tilt, outperforming the aussie. What do you want to see him performing what do you want to see underperforming japanese yen . That is what risk on looks like in the fx market. Tom it has been stronger euro through the morning. We give some of that up. Stronger euro, weaker yen. Right now on fixed income, really framing a global map strategy at morgan stanley, is matthew horn bok matthew hornbach. He joins us on this day of a jump condition in the market. Lets go back to vassar economics come or you had to define a jump condition. Is this a jump condition . Matthew thanks for having me on. This is clearly an important day for the world. We still have some top. We still have to get the vaccine further tested. It has to be distributed around the world. We are still not out of the woods yet, but certainly a bright day for the globe. I think you can see this playing out very clearly and mark, as you just discussed. Also an that there is important underlying backdrop to all of this, which is the amount of Central Bank Liquidity that is being pumped into the system on a monthly basis, and we expect to continue throughout the entirety of next year. So a tremendous day for the world, and we think next year looks to be a bright one. Lisa what does a bond market look like with a vaccine . Are we looking at a 1 10year . More . Matthew we do think yields will be angled higher over the course of the coming year. We had recently been very bearish on the treasury market. It is a rare day to be treasury market to be bearish on the treasury market. We think theres good scope for the start for the curve to steepen further. We think the treasure market with a vaccine is one where the fed is going to slow play it. That is going to prevent intermediate yields from rising too much, but the back end of the yield curve should be lifted higher, especially as breakeven inflation rates continue to expand. Know what the world looks like they vaccine because we know what the world looks like that covid19. Treasury yields didnt exactly get away from themselves back then either. Most people would make the argument that, looking over the next several years, trend growth could well still be lower, inflation could well still below , and rates, we might not see a recovery in europe once again that justifies a rate hike. So what would your response to that be . Why would a cycle recovery with a vaccine be any different to what we saw in the previous 10 years when we didnt have covid19 . Hereew i think the answer ultimately comes down to central Monetary Policy strategy. What we have seen from these Central Banks is that they are willing to keep Interest Rates much lower for longer. We have been using that phrase for over a decade now, but we do think that these new Monetary Policy strategies are going to end up weighing on the equilibrium level of longterm Interest Rates. The equilibrium level of the yield curve. Everything is going to be lower and flatter for longer. That doesnt mean that yields are going to stay low in theetuity, but it does mean equilibrium levels are coming down. Jonathan do you assume that the previous peak wont be resumed again . Matthew i think it will be a long time before we see a 3. 25 yield. In general terms, when you see Interest Rates move higher very quickly to really unsustainable levels, it typically occurs off the back of a communications error. We saw that in 2013. We saw that in 2018. We think that central bankers have learned this lesson time and time again. They may have to learn it again, but i think for the time being, these new Monetary Policy frameworks are going to try to anchor those rate expectations much more. Tom i want you to channel michael wilson. You talk about frameworks. Does this equity market frame the forecast for the expectation for Revenue Growth and Earnings Growth . We have been longterm bulls on the equity market. With these recent corrections called absolutely correctly, it does suggest that his longerterm view, which is very bullish, is very likely going to play out, especially in a world where consumer activity is going to get back on track, hopefully sooner rather than later. The Economic Data in the u. S. And around the world has been robust, so yes, this longterm bullishness that mike wilson talks about, we are going to continue to aim in that direction, and we think we will hit those targets next year. Lisa right now, a lot of people are looking at credit versus stocks. Stanleyi believe morgan saying credit in the possible credit is the impossible bright spot going forward. What does the vaccine news do to the prospect of credit outperforming, given the fact that the fed will have less impetus to keep rates very low . Matthew it is not clear to me just yet that the impetus from the fed is going to change anytime soon. We just went through a november fomc meeting. We are going to have shortly the december fomc meeting. The fed is going to update its dot plot. It is going to include a few more charts in its material. I highly doubt that the median 2023. Is going to go up. The fed is going to keep policy at zero for probably the entire he of the. Pot probably the entirety of the dot plot. So i dont think there is impetus necessarily, which is why the vaccine has the power to really drive risk assets higher, credit spreads tighter, the equity markets higher, emerging currencies stronger. This is one of our key calls right now, is that we think emergingmarket currencies are going to perform extremely well against the dollar. We continue to be bearish on the dollar. We think liquidity has to find a home and higheryielding assets. U. S. Corporate read it is obviously going to be one of those. Lisa lets go to emerging markets in general because they are flying with stocks and currencies at near record highs. Currencies at the strongest versus the dollar since 2018. How much of this story is china, and how much of the story is nations that have really been beaten up and underperforming until now . Matthew we think the change in leadership in the United States has potential to help a wide variety of emerging markets. Mexico, for example. Russia. We are also looking at china. We do think that the currency there has further scope for appreciation. Wand pairir the japaneseagainst the yen. But in general, we see this liquidity going to a wide variety of emerging markets in m in asia. Am and hopefully this environment with a vaccine is possible, and that is going to have a really positive impact in a variety of emergingmarket currencies, credit, and rates. Jonathan great to catch up, as always. Good morning to you, sir. My regards to you and the team. Over the last week, what a week we have had. We woke up this morning focused on washington, d. C. With the potential seemingly of a contested election down in washington. The race for the white house, in the minds of many, has wrapped up. The president will pursue proceeding through the courts. That should have been the top story this morning. Then we got encouraging news around a vaccine. Certainly several steps forward. The story of the equity market off the back of this is pretty clear. There is a real cyclical tilt to the price action, so much so that the nasdaq is no negative on the session. Nasdaq futures off by about 015 . About 0. 5 rotation isly the much more evident then off of the pfizer announcement. Look at the curve steepening. Remarkable to see, seven basis points there. This chart, for those of you on Bloomberg Radio, i will put this on twitter. How about the dow futures back since time began . We have broken out to a record high. Jonathan does that go back to your youth . I cant see the other axis. Tom that is good. It goes back to 2003, wiseguy. Jonathan American Airlines of 24 . The Airlines Getting a huge lift off the back of this. I imagine financials do well this morning as well. With the yield curve steeper up the long end by nine basis points on 30s, eight or nine on tens. Lisa we are looking at the steepest yield curve in the u. S. Going back to 2018. How much does this vaccine translate to longterm growth . You are not seeing it yet in breakeven rates. How much is this a nearterm pop bringing forward an expectation for the end of the pandemic . People will be looking at expectations for fiscal support, as well as Monetary Policy going forward. Jonathan it feeds off the back of what lisa just described. At the epicenter of all of this is what is happening in rates. When rates are low, tech has got a nice bid. When rates push that higher, it comes amends it complicates the cyclical rotation. Good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. For our audience worldwide, it is a good morning in new york city. This is bloomberg. Worda with the first news, im ritika gupta. President trump plans more legal moves on the election today. Bloomberg has learned that recognition is growing among his inner circle that efforts to overturn joe bidens victory will be futile. Some advisors have urged the president to pursue focused legal challenges. The president has falsely claimed victory and alleged that there was widespread vote fraud. He has not offered any evidence. Name ale, biden plans to 12 member Coronavirus Task force today as the number of cases worldwide has now surpassed 50 million. The u. S. Counts for 1 5 of that total. More than 126,000 new infections were reported on one day alone. Theres speculation that higher Interest Rates could be coming the Turkish Central Bank chief was fired. Decline speeded up since the Central Bank Held back from raising rates last month. The latest round in the videogame console fight between sony and microsoft kicks off this week. Microsoft is launching its new xbox, while sony comes out with its latest playstation. Microsoft is making a serious attempt to attract fans in japan. Sony has built the u. S. Into its largest and largest single market. For more than three decades, millions of americans sat down after dinner and had their knowledge tested by alex trebek. Trebek hosted the popular quiz show jeopardy. He died yesterday, a little more than a year and have after he advance a yearandahalf after he announced that he had advanced pancreatic cancer. Alex trebek was 80. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. What a morning worldwide for this market. Encouraging news out of pfizer. Equity futures up 3. 6 6 . There is a huge cyclical tilt to this market move. Lisa mentioned the airlines. The likes of American Airlines up more than 20 in premarket trading. Treasuries lower, yields higher to 0. 90 . In the commodity market, up about 0. 5 on wti. A 40 handle. D , shortterm one. Covid cases up, record highs in the United States. Thats the short term. On the horizon over the longterm, things could get better. From the president and the last couple of minutes, the stock market is up big. Vaccine coming soon, report 90 effective. Such great news. Tom its good to see him surface here. Hes been quiet for four days. He does not have a schedule published today. Maybe that will change with his stock market up. 128. 37 s p futures up 128. 3, 7 as well. The statistics of medicine is profound. Mercedes carney fund confronted carnethonrcedes confronted this, and moved on to an esteemed career at Northwestern University chicago. I should say evanston, of course. Not chicago. Wonderful to have you with us. If we talk about a 90 efficacy, and dr. Fauci and others say if we could only get to 75 efficacy, is it Mission Accomplished . Bycedes i am very heartened the news, particularly since we know that these trials were welldesigned, monitored very well, and they involve a large number of people. Yes, 90 is into the 100 that you would like to hear. However, that is about as effective as any vaccine, and perhaps slightly higher than what we have seen for effectiveness of the flu vaccine. Cases ofst majority of people who happened to be exposed were reduced when they had this vaccine. I am feeling very pleased about that. Lisa can we fastforward . How quickly will we end up stopping this pandemic aced on the data we got today . Mercedes well, lets slow outbreaks on that one. Unfortunately this isnt going to be a magic shop that is going to reverse course from what we need to do to slow the spread because theres going to be a phased rollout of this vaccine. Its availability even with the claims of operation warp speed and involving the army to help distribute it, we have to have a priority list of those who are protecting us, those who are helping us get along in society, and those who are educating us. Those are the essential worker categories who need to receive the vaccine first for it goes to the broader population. The distribution i am really interested in. Lets hope that this goes forward and it is conclusive. Then there is talk about distribution, and the transition period between two governments that is set to take place. How closely will pfizer have to work with the government to make sure that people who need this get this quickly . Mercedes i am very pleased that what ive heard from president elect joe biden is that he has already appointed a Coronavirus Task force filled with professionals, medical experts, Public Health experts. So i do believe he will be ready to launch this distribution plan. Theres already a priority list of essential workers, nursing home residents, other people in congregate settings, including prisons, who are at the highest risk for capturing this. So i do believe there is a plan in place. There have been National Academies who have a tribute it who have contributed to these plans. So i think the government will be ready to roll this out right away. Tom when i look at immunological memory, it reminds me of the dreaded booster shots of my youth. Jon and lisa have no idea what i am talking about. But you would have to go back and back to get booster shots on tetanus, on syria on diphtheria. But what about on viruses . Do you assume we are just all going to have booster shots until the tots win . Mercedes we may end up needing to have repeated shots. One thing that is not clear because we are so early on in this pandemic is how long one maintains those antibodies that you either get from contracting the illness or that you develop from a vaccine. We dont know how long those will last. We also dont know whether the coronavirus will adapt itself so that it can continue to be infectious. That is one of the reasons why we have a flu vaccine every year , because it mutates, it changes. Position, buthat it seems like we are at a great starting point for a vaccine right now. Lisa we have learned this morning that you are very scared of shots. First you were talking about holding your hand, then talking about the dreaded boosters, which for the record, we still get. [laughter] just to wrap this up in the near term, coming in this morning before this news was announced, the discussion was really around the work sitting wave of covid the worsening wave of covid around the world and the potential for additional deaths. Given the fact that the vaccine news does not change the near term, what kind of winter months are we looking at . Mercedes right now we are looking at a winter that is going to look very similar to our last spring in america. Worldwide, they had their peaks earlier. I think we will see governments needing to step up and have rolling shutdowns, particularly of those businesses and industries where we see rapid spread. If it happens to be the types of places you would frequent where you cant wear a mask, inside eating and drinking, we are going to have to adhere to those policies. What we hopefully can maintain this time is availability of our hospital system. However, with the rate of these cases are going up, our hospitalizations here in illinois are matching but they were last spring, and that is a very scary prospect because we still have cardiovascular disease, cancers, respiratory illnesses that we would need to still treat. Jonathan professor, thanks for your time this morning. A professor of epidemiology, and tom still manages to get spurs into the conversation. [laughter] for the people who dont watch this program often, do you think anyone outside. This show know who the tots are . Tom come on, they know who the tots are. They are in second place behind cester. I get it. This is the first real news where i can say to an expert like the professor from northwestern, wait a minute. Somebody is actually winning in the spend in this pandemic. Jonathan if somebody wins, we all win, and i think that is the bottom line now. The s p 500, up by 3. 8 . Huge gap between the nasdaq and the s p, and the nasdaq and the russell as well. A 12 cap between the russell and the nasdaq. That is big tech versus smallcap america. That for me is the story of the morning in this equity market. I put ticket i put that together with my team. Tom your entourage. Dont get into this. Come on. Jonathan from london and new york, good morning. This is bloomberg. Markets will probably judge that this is no longer a contested election. Patience is the real key here. The more the stimulus talk is delayed, people are going to worry about growth again. The balance might be tilting towards accepting a little bit more risk. The fed has a very tough job right now. They are basically out of tools. It is going to get worse before it gets better. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Good morning, everyone. An extraordinary monday