Street audience. It is really important to look at the levels here and not the abrupt changes day after day. Moments ago, s p futures 3500. Dow level, 29,000 plus. Nasdaq 100 level, 12,000. That is a market that is adjusting. Jonathan the nasdaq up 9 since election day. Three days, nasdaq futures up 9 . Can you make sense of some of this price action . Tom absolutely not. Jonathan seeing the equity market up this much is pretty impressive. Tom we can pontificate about it. Lisa will have all of the answers about why we are moving up. Just in the last hour, yields come in. Of all of the political debate this morning, the one little tea leaf was in georgia. Mr. Biden narrows the gap with 96 counted. Tom you mentioned jonathan you mentioned the bond market. The company continues. Lisa if you want a neat narrative, you can but fun of me and tell me it is wrong, and it probably is, but i think the narrative of the day is that the fed its going to have to provide more support to the economy because fiscal stimulus isnt going to be there the size of people expected because of split government. That seems to be the presiding narrative, and that is good for big tech. Talking of the election, georgia is expected to give an update around 10 30 a. M. Today, possibly before, when he secretary of state is expected to speak. These are the key states. If biden wins either of these, it will put him over or at the 270 mark for electoral votes. He is currently at 264, versus trump. Of president. We get u. S. Initial jobless claims. They are expected to come in a little bit lower than yesterday, but still, 735,000 additional claims expected to. Be filed still incredibly high expected to be filed. Still incredibly high given the fact that we are supposed to be recovering. Fed chair jay powell is speaking after the 2 00 p. M. Policy decision. He wont weigh in on the election, but what will be the criteria for them and thing up potential stimulus and the monetary response . Jonathan the bank of england making their move earlier this morning. This is the next two hours on bloomberg surveillance. I will go through the markets, and lisa will tell you why we are here. Equity futures with a big bounce this thursday again, up 58 on the s p we advance even more on the nasdaq. In the fx market, just some dollar weakness in the last 24 hours. Eurodollar reclaiming a 1. 18 handle. In the bond market, this curve is flatter. Down two or three basis points to 0. 736 2 . That is the story of the price action. Much more in a moment. We wake up once again to the same headlines that counting continues. In many ways, the contrast of two candidates on the campaign trail and very much so still in the aftermath. This was Vice President joe biden urging calm. Mr. Biden after a long night of counting, it is clear that we are winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Im not here to declare that we won, but i am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners. Wasthan the president tweeting, including this tweet right here. We have claims for electoral votes purposes the state of pennsylvania, which will not allow legal observers. The state of georgia and north carolina. Additionally, we hereby claim the state of michigan. There were a large number of secretly dumped ballots, which is been largely reported. Twitter flag to the last part of that tweet as potentially misleading under its Election Security efforts. This is been an ongoing story for the last couple of days. Tom of course, a huge claim yesterday as he claimed pennsylvania and selected other states as well. We will get to it now, with markets on the move and times so compressed across all of this historic morning. Kevin cirilli joins us now. Ive got about eight ways to go right now, but i am going to end up with your pennsylvania. Are you waiting for pennsylvania, or will we not get there . Kevin it might not come down to pennsylvania, to be frank with you. I think when clark county,evada reports their ballots that is six electoral votes that could push joe biden two 270. You mentioned georgia, where the president does still have a razor thin lead, but that also push joe biden over the edge. In terms of what i heard from my sources yesterday on the president s reelection campaign, this is what they feel is their past to 270, which is increasingly become a more narrow. They would have to get a reversal of sorts in a state like arizona, where they feel there are additional votes that will trend in their direction. Secondly, that the votes that were cast on election day and are able to be counted by law, up until three days after election day, that they not be ultimately counted. They feel they have a legal case and would be able to make their case to the supreme court. However, this story is quickly evolving. I think lisa laid it out in terms of the timeline. Ive got my eye on georgia and nevada. It could be a very interesting day, where you have joe biden reaching 270 in the electoral count, and no word for president trump, or we could have major moment for both. Tom i need to identify for you that what you heard from Lisa Abramowicz was what we call a neat narrative. What i would notice here is arizona is really open to debate. Some news organizations are saying arizona is for mr. Biden. I am going to be direct, others arent. That is why you see confusion over where the electoral votes are right now. Jonathan i think this is really important. Depending on what network you tune into this morning, you might see 264 next to joes name, or 253, because some people still havent called arizona for Vice President joe biden. We know what donald trump would like to see. What do you see in the numbers . Maria specifically as it relates kevin specifically as it relates to arizona, i go back to when i spoke to ronna mcdaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National committee, and i asked what state keeps you up at night. She mentioned arizona specifically, and went on to tell me on the record, but offcamera, that it would be very difficult for the president to win if he didnt carry arizona. County, ourmaricopa ricky davis, the former Campaign Manager of john mccain of zona in 2008 of arizona in 2008, he laid it out flatly about maricopa county, and how that is the swing county, so to speak, of this state. The president played well outside of that area, but he really took a political gamble that he might be paying the price for if the spread in maricopa is still what it is. That is the suburbs, the swing voters of that state. Tom kevin cirilli, thank you for being here with us on an early morning, and i am sure we will hear more from our chief washington correspondent. Right now, joining us is david bailin, Citigroup Global head of investments. I want to cut to the chase. You focus on gridlock. It the gridlock forward different than the gridlock of recent years . David in terms of economic policy, probably not. What we are going to see i think is some level of stimulus package. It wont be what it would have been had there been 100 controlled by the democrats, but there will be a package. If using about the trifecta from a stock standpoint, you have the fed holding rates low for the next two and a half years, youve got some level of stimulus in january, and if got four different vaccines that could be announced between the end of november and january, and they are being made in hundreds of millions of doses by each of the companies. The combination of knowing that there would be an end to the pandemic in 2021, stimulus in the market sometime in january, and knowing who the president is is news that can propel the market higher. I believe if the combination of those things believe it is the combination of those things happening now. Lisa the market is not a monolith, and right now we are seeing the doubling down on the Growth Stocks and tech stocks, and not the reflation trade people had been hoping for. The neat narrative we were talking about is the fed is going to have to provide more support. Rates are going to stay low, and we are not going to get that faster growth from a higher fiscal support package. Is the neat narrative correct, or are we going to get that stimulus in the form of Economic Growth and recovery as the vaccine gets implement it gets implemented . David i think that narrative is actually wrong. Youve got an enormous tailwind here. Youve got basically between 12 and 15 of the Global Economy shut down in terms of travel, leisure, retail, education, health care. Take a look at consumer demand in the united states, higher than it was in december 2019, before we turn that back on. So theres a tailwind in that way and in terms of the velocity of money, which will take place when everyone leaves their house. It is shocking that the nasdaq is up this way, but that is the defense of trade. Rates down, technology up. That tells you that people are still scared. Once we see that change, that will be indicative of what will happen over the next couple of years as the regular market comes to bear. Up, asn great to catch always. David bailin of citigroup. You heard it there, the defensive nature of the equity market move. Hard to put your head around when you see the nasdaq on the s p up as far as they are, but there is a defensive tilt to the equity story. Tom you have seen it with yields coming in as well. Frankly, you can look at the yields in europe as well. Beneath the radar, the german tenyear is really on a difficult time, so it is odd. Equities up as yields come down. Jonathan from london and new york this morning, good morning. It is the longest tuesday night ever. It is thursday morning. Equity futures are rallying. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Joe biden has just joe biden is just one battleground stayed away from becoming the next president of the united states. Biden already won two key prizes, the states of miss coston of wisconsin and michigan. His best chance appears to be in nevada, where he holds a lead over president trump. For the president to be reelected, he would have to win all of the battleground states that have not yet been called. The tightly contested election is putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to support the economy. Policymakers are not expected to announce a shift today when they conclude their two day meeting, but chair powell may hint at coming changes to the fed bond buying program. Chances of aggressive fiscal spending for households and businesses faded when a democratic sweep did not happen. Regulations take effect in england today. They will enforce the closing of gyms, and nonessential shops. Parliament gave its blessing to the new rules after Prime MinisterBoris Johnson warned that england faces risk of mortality on a grievous scale. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Mr. Biden my fellow americans, yesterday once again proved that democracy is the heartbeat of has beenon, just as it the heartbeat of this nation for two centuries. ,ven in the face of pandemic more americans voted this election than ever before in american history. If we had any doubts, we shouldnt have any longer, about a government of, for, and by the people. It is very much alive in america. Here the people rule. Jonathan jonathan former Vice President joe biden speaking in delaware. Good morning. The counting continues into thursday morning. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Live on bloomberg tv and radio, here is a snapshot of the price action. On thefutures up big nasdaq, on the s p. In the fx market, dollar weakness the story. Just bear in mind, the information we have is this race is still too close to call. The market is trading on the anticipation that you will have a Biden White House. That is not what we are suggesting. That is just what this market is trading on, especially the weaker dollar story off the back of that. Look to china. The euro stronger this morning. The chinese currency has been on a tear over the last week or so, relatively speaking. China doesnt often go on a tear. That currency has been strong, strong, strong. Tom it is 6. 61, the chinese yuan. It is transpacific miles away from seven yuan per dollar. Mr. Biden has almost 72 million votes. 2. 5 ahead of the president s popular vote at 68. 3 million. , guess that is a Biden Victory and that is just speculation. We will have to see how the vote works out. But we do know is there were thoughts of a blue wave. Weve had a number of analysts guests who have been very strong about, maybe not. No one has been more vocal about the lack of a blue wave then terry haines of pangea policy. We are thrilled he joins us this morning because he absolutely nailed what is beneath the headlines. In what way did the blue wave fail . Terry i think the blue wave failed frankly because it is a classic example of people talking themselves into what they wanted to believe, combined with poor supporting information to back it up. There is an underestimation, as you can see from the election results, of just how much support there is for president trump, and beyond that, how much support there is for republicans generally, and secondly, for a lot of the unknowns that i was pointing out in the weeks before the election, including the potential effects of things like lockdown effects and battlegrounds, and the effects of constant civil unrest and the effects of crime in a variety of cities. Andle want what they want, the country is certainly well people, but these believe what they believe, and they are coming out to back it up. I think people ought to take away from this, dont talk yourself into the coastal narrative, because that is not where it is. Jonathan it is really important to talk about turnout. Turnout was huge, and over the last four years, the democrats just assumed that the bigger the turn outcome of the more it would play into their hands, and that didnt happen. What is the lesson from that . Terry the lesson from that is very simply that democrats have an awfully long way to go to centrists reach the and the People Living in the heartland. The other argument that i would give you is that republicans have a very long way to go before they reach the coasts. The narratives have been built tor the last 20, 30 years, be so different that any candidate that wants to bridge across that is going to have to start thinking outside the box and not relying on the lazy narratives that have built up, and try to figure out new, practical ways to get across that cap and actually excite people about what is going to go on, but more importantly, deal with their economic circumstances because that is not being dealt with by politicians. Lisa that is the future. I want to talk about the present, which is the assumption that joe biden will become the next president. That is the assumption baked into markets. Arizona a feeling that is already for biden. It has been called for him. And yet there is a lot of question about this, certainly with so many votes not yet counted. Do you think the call was too early calling arizona for biden . Terry do i think so . Noh, for one reason only, disrespect to anybody who made that call. There were clearly lots of votes out there that had not been counted, and i think arizona broadly speaking was treated very differently than, say, pennsylvania or michigan, where similar sorts of numbers were out there, and you knew that there were still lots of votes , and yet the networks and ap didnt call those states early, while they did call arizona. I think that was a problem. Tom we have massive breaking news, but terry haines, i just got to ask, what did you learn about florida . [laughter] terry what i learned about florida . I didnt learn anything about florida, frankly. Comeught that vote would out pretty much the way it did, and never try to shove socialism down the throat of people who fled from it. Jonathan terry haines, quite a strong finish there. Thank you very much. Terry pushed back against those polls so much over the last couple months. Thank you, sir. What is happening in the United Kingdom right now is everything chairman powell would like to see, but wont happen in the united states. Early this morning, the bank of england increased its qe, its bond buying program. They brought that forward because chancellor sunak was making the address he is making right now. The news from that is that chancellor sunak is extending the furlough Wage Support Program through march, the government paying 80 of wages for those who have to stay at as the unitedgh, kingdom goes into lockdown today. This is the sequencing that i think is so important. The bank of england and the chancellor are in lockstep. It is orchestrated perfectly. Bank of england makes its move. The chancellor comes out and extends the wage support into march. More death. The chairman of the Federal Reserve will go into that News Conference and plead for more fiscal support. Who is going to answer that prayer . Tom we have no framework that i can see of march 2021. I was stunned when i saw that headline. Yes, we are distracted by an election, but after this election, whoever wins, are we in any way looking out to march of 2021 . Theres no way i see that. Jonathan we are trying to get to friday and may be here from pennsylvania to get a vote tally in the united states. In the u. K. , there is a lockdown for months into early december, and a chancellor providing wage support out to march 2021. From london and new york this morning, good morning to you all. The voting continues. Our coverage will continue. On Bloomberg Radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. I feel like were forgetting something. Let me check. Xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere with professionally monitored Home Security built around you. No, i think were good. Good. 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