Lets listen to the candidates first. Trump we already have one. Mr. Biden we believe we are on track to win this election. We won states would not expect to win. Florida, we won by a lot. Mr. Biden we are going to win pennsylvania. Pres. Trump we are going to the u. S. Supreme court. We want all voting to stop. Mr. Biden we have to be patient until the hard work of tallying the votes is finished. Tom that was 90 minutes ago, maybe two hours ago. Greg jarreau with us, truly an expert on elections. We could have six conversations with him this morning. Kevin cirilli told me three days ago go to wisconsin, and he of course was right. Milwaukee,ll of 169,000 ballots has shifted the tone as well. Does a pro like you right now have any understanding of the mailin ballots that remain in green bay, the mailin ballots in georgia, pennsylvania, and the rest, or are we blind until we see them . Greg in some states it is hard to say how many votes are outstanding. Michigan still has a lot of votes to count in some big population areas like wayne it isome detroit, hard to say how many votes are left, but in wisconsin we had a big batch of absentee votes in milwaukee that put biden slightly ahead in wisconsin. He should get a boost out of kenosha and green bay. The question is how many outstanding ballots are in republican leaning areas. That is why wisconsin is too close to call right now. Justine i think joe biden went favored in the betting markets. I want to temper expectations. This seems like a massive move that happened three or four minutes ago. Can we say with some certainty, that the mailin ballots, the early voting was overwhelming for the democratic candidate . Westerne upper missed the upper midwest and states were looking at we are looking at, what we strong what we saw was a strong republican vote on election day, and then mailin ballots will be counted later this morning at the rest of the week, and they will trend strongly democratic. We saw that with biden overtaking trump in wisconsin by a narrow margin. Ofhigan, there are a lot probiden votes still out there, and a lot of votes to be counted in pennsylvania. Wisconsin, biden was biden pulling ahead was a good sign for him. Tom a less than 10,000 vote difference in wisconsin. Visitarreau, too short a to speak with you. Watching in real time, Vice President biden, 49. 3 , the president 49 in wisconsin. Another candidate makes up the difference. 37,000 votes for her. In the delta, only about 10,000 votes. Wendy schiller of brown university, one of our great historians on elections and also in the present tense as well. Is this going to be about thirdparty candidates getting in the way of razor thin margins . Could be that,it but it could also be not great. Urnout we know that africanamerican turnout might not have hit that magic 64 . Also fewer defections from seniors. They stucke that with republicans with the pulling all along indicating that they might go to democrats, voting more for biden than for trump. There could be a combination of things going on here, but it could just be if trump emerges to be reelected that he managed to get his coalition to get out the door and stick with him and bring on some new voters that the democrats did not have a target or mist, and that bidens coalition did not come out with enough force to give him a victory. Tom i know donna show layla losing down in donna show layla losing down to talk about mr. Bidens core constituency, what would you identify as tonight . Is it truly about the suburbs . Looks to be that if he can pull this out and win, it will be the suburbs. He will probably win it in the suburbs that give him the ultimate victory, particularly in the midwestern states. George w. Bush did very well with latinos. Mitt romney did pretty well with latinos. Not great, but 29 or 30 percent. It looks like trump might exceed that. I think that is where the Biden Campaign probably missed its mark the most. You see that in the votto and in florida. It just looks like the Biden Campaign did not do what it had to do in that community, just to stay competitive with some of the previous democratic candidates. Before i ask you a question, i want to bring everyone up to date with some of the latest vetting that we saw. It was interesting to speak with mark cudmore, saying that the twitter accounts that we follow, looking at electoral maps, maybe what the market is following is the betting odds, and he did say that biden went to the favorite, briefly, but now there is a narrow victory by President Trump. When you look at how close mathematically at some point we will have a president , at race is so close. How contested will this be . How ugly will this be . What will the Supreme Court have to decide on . Questionis is the mark. Margin inby a narrow 2016, in michigan with less than 11,000 votes. For a guy who won by razor thin margins come if biden wins by richard razor thin margins, it will be a difficult Public Campaign for trump to make. Perhaps amid voting irregularities. Do you stop counting before all the ballots are counted . President , it looks like he is going to win, so even if the votes are counted it looks like he premuch will win. Why insert this controversy into this so soon into the game . This puts the republicans in a bad spot i think. Francine going back to what you are saying with the latino vote, that it is very diverse and very different, does the single attribute of President Trump joe biden and his campaign socialists, could that have won a big pocket of that faction for him . Wendy i think there are two different things. The socialist moniker in areas fromot of latinos in latin america, in particular, venezuelans, cubans, i think. Hat is a tilt invite and you have a lot of latinos, but you also have the Hospitality Industry in the gaming industry that is crushed right now because of restrictions due to covid. So if you think about your livelihood in which president is likely to open up the economy, trump has always done better in then biden, months even at the very end. Work int industry you and depending on what state you live in, that may have tilted you back to trump. , insulting a mistake all the people in wisconsin when i mentioned michigan there, at one point. It is definitely wisconsin that we are focused on right now as well. Absentee, wisconsin, ballot results, they are delayed. One of the vote counting machines literally ran out of ink. I can tell you i have a Family Member in new york. They had exactly the same problem in a new york precinct about seven hours ago, where they literally ran out of ink. I guess that can happen to the machines. Ncine, from london professor schiller, one final question if i may. About well know, it is negative votes. Do you know now, or when will you know where they said i am never going to vote for biden or im never going to vote for trump . Wendy i think it is something called negative partisanship, which is what youre talking about, which is i am never going to vote for the other side. Intenses counting on negativity toward trump, and positivescounting on from his base. That is the lesson of this campaign, and the democrats will have to regroup and think about what they are going to do in 2024. This is a narrow victory, and trump does not really have a mandate. He did not really run on much policy to begin with, but he doesnt have a mandate. That is going to be a complicated governing situation for the president and the republicans at the National Level going forward. Tom it is going to be a complicated set of hours and days. Wendy schiller, thank you for joining us, in the very early rhode island morning. We are looking at the flighting us of the futures. It is extraordinary. We have the curve flattening, indicating a dampening of the market. Givingman 10 year yield me some new lows, some real negative tone, an ever more negative tone on the german 10year yield. We are looking at the politics. Much more to come on these important stats states, and good conversation. Leslie vinjamuri will join us from Chatham House come on wisconsin come on america. Stay tuned with us on election 2020. 2020. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. This is also our u. S. Election special 2020. Turning us is Leslie Vinjamuri with muchneeded perspective, from Chatham House. I know you have been up for most of the night. Looking at the Electoral College and the number of votes counted and for the moment it is too close to call, the outcome still unknown but what has surprised you the most . Can we safely say that the votes that came in by mail were overwhelmingly for the democrats . Does that mean that joe biden has an advantage right now . What everybody who follows this very carefully at the highest level has told us. They have been telling us this for a very long time. What surprises me most, we have heard this for weeks, and yet on the night, on the morning, people still have a hard time absorbing it and waiting for the result. We have to wait for wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. We have known for a very long time that the mailin ballots would take more time to count. They only began in pennsylvania counting on the counting on election day. We have known more democrats are likely to be voting by mailin ballot a. We know there has been a store near it turned out across the United States, that there are more ballots to count on both sides. So i find it incredible, frankly, that people are trying to call a state before they have been called on the ground. We know that this is a deeply controversial, problematic election. We have seen the president of the United States of america allege fraud preemptively, claim victory, said that it is going to the Supreme Court. This is shocking, francine. We have talked about the elections for several months now. I think at some point you have to call it like it is. This is shocking, and we have to encourage people to wait until we know the official results. Francine leslie, what is most surprising . We have been told, and some of the great analysis that we read kind of predicted this very model. Why is this election in 2020 so close . Leslie it is close for many reasons. First of all, the United States is very divided. People have very different views on who they want the president of the United States of america to be. People react very differently to a crisis. Some people are seeing the pandemic through the lens of the economy. They are word about their jobs, and for some people that means being worried about a Vice President biden who might not moving. Economy President Trump has been very successful in some people, and scaring them into believing that Vice President will Vice President biden will shut down the economy and pursue a socialist agenda. There are a number of messages in the discourse around the election that im sure are encouragingto people to vote. We have known for a long time that the National Polls indicated a significant gap and advantage for Vice President biden, but statebystate in the battleground states, it has been close. Even when there has been a margin, sometimes as much as 6 , 7 , 8 , people have been very unwilling to commit to how that would turn out. In the context of people voting in a pandemic. With misinformation, with all sorts of politics, it is not surprising that we are where we are. The election in 2016 is coming down to the states came down to the states and it is coming down to the states again. Arizona went that down to Vice President biden for the and my home state, nebraska, for the second time in its history, has flipped its Electoral College vote. President trump held a rally in omaha, and they voted for Vice President biden. Serious headline. In green bay, wisconsin, they are literally awaiting the count based off think from the printer, and there is a clerkmate report that the has returned with printer ink. I did not think i would be saying that 12 hours ago. Leslie vinjamuri, if this is the case, and it devolves back to the suburbs, i look at the philadelphia suburbs today to see that dynamic but what did you glean from the suburbs of philadelphia, the suburbs of this nation . Leslie the suburbs have been the interesting, fascinating there have been women peeling off in the suburbs, peeling off their support for President Trump. Many wealthy americans that are not pleased with the president s agenda. Some very good analysis coming out of people like amy walters, saying the suburbs might be lost to republicans in this round, but the democrats should not hope that that result will hold, if that is what we see and look carefully at all the data. That is not a longterm shift, that is something that might be specific to this president. Tom Leslie Vinjamuri, too short a visit. Thank you also for your help with us, with all that we have done in the recent months. Leslie vinjamuri is at Chatham House. It is about the big states, the medium states, but also the little or states. We forget that nevada is really contested right now with six electoral votes. Mr. Biden has some form of number of 50. 2 . 47. 9 , withp at almost 80 of the vote in. Maybe we will get an update on the votto as well, as the contestedd midwestern states. The support of our military for their next president jane street us in the 6 James Stavridis in the 6 00 hour. Stay with us as the election evening unfolds. This is bloomberg. Ritika the president ial race is still too close to call, but President Trumps claim he won. Earlier at the white house he denounced several battleground states that are still counting votes. Pres. Trump we will be going to the u. S. Supreme court. We want all voting to stop. We dont want them to find any ballots at 4 00 in the morning and add them to the list. We will win this. Ritika it is unclear what the president meant. It is routine for states to keep counting votes after election day. That is happening in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, georgia, and others. Meanwhile, joe biden is optimistic. To biden we are on track win this election. We are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. [horns honking] mr. Biden by the way, it will take time to count votes, we are going to win pennsylvania. Ritika biden made his potential paths of the white house a little easier by winning arizona, the third state he has won that President Trump took in 2016. Democrat have taken control of the senate is slipping away as several republican incumbents won. Almost everything would have to go right for the democrats in the undecided seats for them to win a majority. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Markets right now, futures are red and green as well. 35. 15. At out of milwaukee, the election director saying wisconsin adding a 6 00 a. M. Announcement. In the votto, it is close and we have 85 of the vote in nevada, it is close and we have 85 of the vote in. 11,000 vote difference with biden ahead. Please stay with us. Election 2020. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Tom good morning everybody. A in or two data points for you. One on the markets and one of this historical election. Red and green on the screen, and the nasdaq 100 is doing a little better. Other than that, pretty quiet. The others, i want to look at the popular vote, and that is mr. Biden 50 ,. 0. Are working 48. 3 we with, a tighter popular vote then what we saw in 2016. One of the items we are focused on. We are focused on wisconsin and im sure we will get something in the next 10 minutes. Francine im looking at the live blog and the probability of exchange. Biden is trading at 57 . Weve seen quite a volatility quite a bit of volatility when it comes to what the president to the president will be. In markets are trying to get front of it. Im focused on nevada because we thought nevada was going to go to biden. The expectations was that it would be close. Democrats should hold it, but it is all out in play. The key for President Trump is that, if he gets nevada, then there is still a path for him to get reelected. To discuss this and the impact it could have on the markets is chasechang, jb morgan Global Research. We almost need to look at the. Inute by minute connection what would be difficult for the market to swallow . Extra regulation . No stimulus . And under what scenario would we see that . When we had done surveys of investors, they were more concerned about a contested election and volatility around that than the outcome. Thee been doing probabilityweighted scenarios on the outcome. We have a range. A trump victory. 3600 for yearend, which has been our target for a long time. 3300 to 3400 is a blue wave. When we have asked investors what they are most worried about in a contested election, what do you think happens to the s p 500 . 50 said the s p 500 could go down five to 10 . You have the whole process in play. You only started counting the vote for michigan and pennsylvania today. We knew they wouldnt get results until the end of the week for pennsylvania. A clear, decisive election has been much of the focus and that remains the focus right now. The market will get back to looking at the issues over the next three to six months, what happens on fiscal stim