Smashing it. Mike mckee is here to break it down. Brian it may be michael it may be too late to influence the president ial election, but certainly influencing the way the markets are going to trade because this is a big number. In october. We thought it would be 56, but this blows that away. New orders, 67 point nine from 60. 2. Production, 63 from 61. For the First Time Since july 2019, we are seeing employment well for with augurs this fridays numbers. Maybe we get some positive manufacturing. Prices paid still rising. Hard to know exactly what that means in terms of long red inflation since we do have the confusions of the covid case. Is it a shortage of materials, a pipeline problem, or are we actually see in prices going up . Likets for the year, looks the new export orders goes up to 55. 7 from 54. 3. That will take a hit from the lockdowns in europe. Overall, this is a very good number for the economy going forward. Alix how much is it like we have seen in europe, where manufacturing comes back and then falls apart . Brian it is probably michael it is probably going to drop off now that they are locking down. Alix 24 hours to go until election day. Candidate joe biden leading President Trump nationally and in. Several key swing states joining us with more. In several key swing states. Joining i will cast joining us with more is Kevin Cirilli joining us with more is Kevin Cirilli. Kevin democratic nominee joe biden focusing on what will become an incredibly important state for both sides, pennsylvania. A stop inso be making ohio, where he is well within the average of margin of errors. Meanwhile, the president going to be keeping a marathon pace as he goes to several states today, including north carolina. North carolina, of course, also the site of a very Contentious Senate battle, where senator thom tillis is going to be locked in a dead heat with cal cunningham, the democrat challenger. This is really down to the wire here is both sides tried to focus on these swing states. Can you believe it . Just a couple of hours, when those first polls open, less than one day now. Guy what a 24 hours we are counting down to. Thank you very much, indeed. Joining us now for more analysis on what we should make up these zaino,w hours, Jeanne Bloomberg contributor and iona college professor. What is your read this election eve . Jeanne i hope kevin is right, that we know a lot more in 24 hours. If this thing comes down to pennsylvania, as he was mentioning, such a key state where they are spanning across the state today, we may not know for a few days or longer after this thing wrapped up. I am trying to be optimistic, but i think kevin may be more optimistic than i am at this point. Alix there was talk over the weekend that President Trump would declare himself the winner hishings were going in favor. If that happens, what does that look like tomorrow night . Jeanne it looks like something we have never seen in american history, where you would have an american president an incumbent president before all the votes are counted declaring himself winter. I still have trouble believing that is the case. I hope that i will take them at their word that that is not going to happen. We have to count every vote before we know who the winner is if this thing is close. Causehich is going to greater volatility, the president ial race or the senate races . Jeanne they are both so incredibly exciting and impactful. In terms of the markets, i think the senate is really important to watch. Theres a very good shot that joe biden takes the presidency and democrats take the senate. It is certainly not guaranteed. We dont know on either score. But if that happens, that policy in washington, d. C. For the first time in quite a few years, we would have an all democratic washington, and that would Say Something about a variety of issues, from taxation to regulation, to the environment to education. Certainly a stimulus bill. We want to watch out for that. A year ago, we would not have said that immigrants are in striking distance of the senate, but they clearly are now. One of the key races to watch, north carolina, but there are others as well. Maine, we have susan collins. We have senate races across the country that democrats can pick off. So there is striking distance there. Alix can you define striking distance . I feel at the market is trying to understand the distinction between a blue wave and a light blue wave, when you have a slight majority in the senate, but that doesnt mean all of a. Udden something gets through jeanne i am not one who think we are going to have a blue wave, where democrats take the and weby huge numbers really get this unprecedented support for far progressive policy. We need to remember that some of these candidates are running in districts that are not incredibly progressive or liberal. They are more purple districts. I think we are looking at, if anything, more of a light blue wave. I think democrats have a chance now to pick up between two to five or six seats in the senate. With democrats in control, certainly if they take the white house and the senate, we could see policy changes afoot. Certainly pulling back on some , andat president has done under mitch mcconnell, the senate has done in the last four years. Guy what do you think the period between now and christmas looks like if trump wins . Jeanne it is such a good question. If trump wins, i think we are probably again, it depends on who wins the senate. They obviously wont be in, if it is the democrats, until january. If trump wins, i think we will probably see more of the same out of President Trump. I do think, i hope that we would see a stimulus bill out of the senate. I am not convinced we will. But i do think that the bigger question is going to be if trump loses and the republicans lose the senate, what do the next two months look like. That is anybodys guess. It is a long time for people who are lameducks to be sitting there. Alix may be an unfair question, but really micro tomorrow, traders are going to be looking at numbers, polls, etc. What is the one thing you are looking at . Weve never been in this place were sony people have voted before election day. What is the number you are looking at . Jeanne what i am looking at is do we see a pickup from joe biden in any of these key southwestern southern states. If we see him pick up a state in the sunbelt early, i think it is going to bode very badly for the president. Likealso looking at states indiana. We will get those results early. Certainly not a battleground state, but it has a number of voters who went from obama to trump. If we see that movement in favor of trump, i think it is going to bode well for the president going forward. Those are the two key things i am going to be looking for early tomorrow night. Alix thank you. We really appreciate it. Jeanne zaino, thank you very much. To an end for special coverage of the election tomorrow at 7 00 p. M. In new york. Coming up, we will focus on the potential volatility around the election. Funda younger and managed and maneesh deshpande. This is bloomberg. Ritika lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. Im ritika gupta. President trump suggesting he may fire and any fallacy after the election. She fireony felt weekend. Auci over the he may doent hinted that once the election is over. In the u. K. , one of Prime MinisterBoris Johnsons top ministers says a monthlong lockdown for england may have to be extended. Says lockdown will be reviewed on december 2, and if the coronavirus data isnt good enough, the lockdown could continue. Scientists warned the national be affectedce could by the latest outbreak. Edward snowden is applying for russian citizenship. Snowden and his wife are expecting a baby, citing this as reason for seeking dual citizenship. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Alix thanks so much. One other thing traders are really bracing for this election season was a contested election. This chart gives the difference between november vix futures curve versus the december fixed futures curve. You can see it has come down, and then came back up only recently. It means some of the volatility shorter term is being priced out. Joining us for more is joshua deshpande. Maneesh we have you covered from all different angles here. The first thing for you is what is in the market right now . What is positioning what does positioning, what does the edge and look like . Maneesh you can look at the levels of vix futures as incorporating two different effects. One is election premium, around 10 vol points. The rest is the covid or vaccine risk premium. Right now, both of them are in play, but we think if we get a decisive victory, lets say joe , thatwins convincingly will come down. The rest of the premium, i. E. What is happening in europe and potentially here, the risk of a vaccine not coming through, that volatility. Utor to guy same thing to you, joshua. What do you think the market is signaling . Joshua it is more concentrated at this point around the election date itself by several measures, so typically you will of maybe one to two times the level of back on volatility. Five, 6, 7igh as times earlier in september. Theres a sense that the election could be a major catalyst. I think the key is not just the factdential result, the that we need to know what can get through congress. The potential for the senate to up in the air for several weeks as part of this. Alix it seems the consensus view is if you have a blue wave, you are looking at a steepener. Youou have a senate split, her. A bull flatten the way ratesk behaved last week is indicative much of this blue wave view i think is priced and at this point, potentially taking it some of it out recently. I think the lesson of 2016 is that the initial reaction of the market might be different from what ultimately gets priced over ame, but definitely reasonably high probability of a democratic sweep priced and at this point. Guy if that is not the case, if President Trump wins, just give me a sense of how that will affect volatility pricing. Maneesh i think it is important to break down the effects in the mediumterm and the shortterm. In the mediumterm, the policy except thing else matter. Are we going to get tax hikes . Are we going to get an Infrastructure Spending plan . All that matters for the mediumterm. For me, in the shortterm term what really matters is how quickly do we know the result. I can thing of three scenarios. One is a decisive victory. The second scenario is too close to call, which is similar to the 2000 election, that we are going through december and there are legal challenges, but they do get decided before december. Is that it isario the middle of december and you dont know who the president is. Perspective, it doesnt matter who wins as long as there is clarity and we dont get the third scenario. That could be a positive thing on the margin. Having said that, the way that the market is looking at it, i think a biden win, especially because we expect a bigger and more cumbrians of pendant expending bill, that is a positive view. Alix more expensive pandemic spending bill, that is a positive view. Alix what kind of spending we will get is exactly what make it markets exacted what markets care about. Does the market think we need actually something that we need, does that reduce this kind of upside potential . Maneesh it does to some extent, but keep in mind weve got another factor now affecting europe, and potentially a third wave in the u. S. If this number has some result, what is happening in europe, obviously that could certainly impact the stimulus being less concerning. But the ism and all of those numbers are clearly backward looking. It is not here what is going to happen for the next few months. The lets talk about about second and third wave and the impact it is likely to have on the data and the economy. In terms of how we should thing about the rates market, which is the more important story between now and christmas, what happens in the u. S. Election and the senate on one hand, and what happens with the rate of change in the virus count . Just in terms of how the rate market is going to thing about that. Joshua i think that you are very strongly connected in the sense that it is less about, because the epidemiological outlook is so uncertain, the way i think about it is is more about the governments ability and willingness to respond than it is about the specific policies being proposed right now. As we are seeing in europe, the outlook can swing very quickly and somewhat unexpectedly. In a world where you have an uncertain outcome where we dont know who is in control of government during the lameduck session, the ability of the government to provide stimulus when needed is much less. That necessarily puts a premium on the rates market because you dont have that fiscal impulse, whereas in the case where you have a very to your control, especially if you have unified democratic control, that has applications for the supply outlook and the inflation outlook, the Growth Outlook and all of those other things. Given the very unique circumstance, the plus ability and willingness of the government to respond is a key variable. Alix we also have the fed coming on thursday. What is your key trade right now . Maneesh we are in steepeners joshua we are in steepeners. We dont think the fed is going to be a particularly significant event. They are not likely to change policy in any material way. Over the long run, we can talk about more substantive potential changes, how they implement their new framework, and over , but forrterm wednesday we dont think there will be can change. Guy we will leave it there. Thank you for your time today, both of you. Appreciate it. This is bloomberg. Guy it is going to be a busy week. Later this week we are going to see the debut of the Worlds Largest ipo. Ant group is set to start trading in hong kong thursday. Bloomberg learning that Institutional Investors are buying hong kong shares on the gray market at a 50 premium. Aty are going out the door 80. Remember, Institutional Investors closed the book on them a little early, so it looks like they are trying to bid up prices. If we see it going out the door at wonder 20, this is going to be an epic ipo. It is going to be interesting at 120, this is going to be an epic ipo. It is going to be interesting to see what else could affect this as well. Alix apparently demand for the retail portion of this ipo and shanghai exceeded the initial supply by more than 870 times. I dont know if my brain can compute that much. Just to show that on all cylinders, it is firing pretty hard. Even the banks that were on the 31 their stocks soared up today. That is the derivative play of this massive ipo. Guy theres some reporting that markethat called on the pboc, asking questions. Not sure what those questions are going to be, but this story is also getting caught up in the chinau. S. Trade tension. The chinese pushing back, making sure that alibaba and aunt dont and ant dont get caught up. This is such a huge ipo. A few years ago it would have taken place in the u. S. The fact that it is not is hugely sick. Alix its is hugely significant. That it speaks to the fact decoupling in the tech world can still happen. How do you have any kind of cooperation when theres National Security involved . It feels like both sides of the aisle are pretty firm on that stance. We have seen these two tech markets developing in very different ways, with more of the action coming right now from china. Guy china trying to do its best at the moment to figure out ways of getting around the restrictions created by the u. S. , when it comes to huawei. We are going to discuss all of that with wall street veteran charles myers. The signum Global Trading chairman will be joining us. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Alix steel is over in new york. A hypothetical Biden Victory wouldnt likely mean higher taxes for companies and individuals. Scarlet fu has an overview. Scarlett one of the trumpet scarlet one of the trump administrations crowning jewels is the tax package passed in 20 17. To incentivize companies to keep many factoring at home rather than overseas, companies are allowed to deduct the full cost of equipment spending until 2023. Money stashed overseas can be repatriated home at a lower rate. The market took notice of this and sent stocks higher. The gdp bounced, and we saw unemployment fall to four decade lows. Joe biden is looking to roll back a lot of these tax cuts. For companies, that entails lifting the Corporate Tax rate to 28 , still lower than the 35 previously, and raising before foreign earnings the tax on foreign earnings of companies. The simplex would seek Capital Gains and dividends taxed at that higher rate as well. The question is whether any of these proposals would get water down because the economy is in a lot weaker state because of covid then before, even with the record gdp bounced. On top of that, if the democrats win the senate, they will have a near majority and will have to appeal to the centrists in the party. Goldman sachs estimates that bidens current proposals would cut s p earnings by 5 in 2022, with the full impact felt a year later. If you look at the past six months, as biden has seen pulling improve, the white line, move inseen companies tandem with his winning. That is in contrast what we saw in 2018. Alix great set up. Thank you so much. Lets talk about taxes because u. S. Executives see Corporate Tax policy is a top risk for businesses under a Biden Administration. That is according to ap wc report. 52 of Business Leaders see the tax changes as the biggest threat. Joining us for wall street perspective, charles myers, chairman,bal advisors and Bloomberg Contributor sonali basak. Corporations so afraid of these taxes, and markets just do not seem to care . Charles i think there is a disconnect out there between expectations and what will most likely happen next year if biden wins with the senate, which is the magnitude by which both corporate and personal taxes