Going to know where we are tuesday night. Lets call it less than likely. Maybe somebody can disagree with me on that. We will go into wednesday and may go into november to get to a successful outcome. Jonathan that is the risk of this market, and it has been for the last couple of months. The other issue this market is grappling with at the moment is the breakdown of traditional correlations. Last week was brutal for the equity work it the equity market. Youve got no comfort for the bond market. Tom bonds really dont move today. It is a higher yield into the weekend. A less than correlated market. I would note the absolute stasis in strong dollar. Dxy, that blended Company Index against the dollar, 94. 03. That is a strong dollar. Jonathan weve got to talk about the weaker euro over last week as well. The Economic Data in europe set. To get worst. We have manufacturing set to get worse. We have manufacturing pmis in europe tomorrow. Lockdowns in france, lockdowns in germany, and the u. K. Joining the party this wednesday. Lisa it is brutal. The Financial Times did a survey of economists, now predicting retraction in the Fourth Quarter for most euro zone after predicting an expansion. We will get a read in the United States as well, u. S. Manufacturing pmis, followed by ism figures. It is a conviction less set of data, trying to mine the future, looking at the past at the time of a very fastmoving virus. Joe biden is Holding Events in cleveland and pennsylvania, a key state that will probably not be decided for several days at least. President Trump Holding five rallies in four key states, north carolina, but sewing you, michigan, north carolina, pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. Most of the early polling tended onlead to joe biden, whereas election day, republicans are expected to turn out. But this feels like a convictionless market in a pivotal week. Jonathan adding to that is just the conditioning we got four years ago around the polls. Weve been covering this for months now, but you can really feel it 24 hours out. The debates out there over this polling has really ramped up in the last day. Tom one is the polling polling. Hour, original polls in the National Vote clearly show mr. Biden more likable than mrs. Clinton was four years ago. Then there is the statebystate. The other polling is the market voting. It will be fascinating to see whether the angst we are in right now, do you get a moonshot out of the election as we saw in 2016 . Jonathan heres the price action this monday morning. Last week, down 5. 5 percent on the s p 500. Worst week since spring. This morning, up 44 points. We are elevated by 1. 36 . Futures with a bid. Treasuries with a very subtle move lower on the yield, the 10 year down to 0. 86 . Last week, up about three basis points, even with the equity market selloff. Last month, a move of almost 20 basis points higher on the 10 year yield. 1. 1651. Ar, england joining the lockdown wednesdayhappen overnight. France, germany. Who is next . Thats the conversation in europe right now. Lets begin the conversation with Michael Shaoul. Fantastic to catch up with you. How on earth do you navigate the next 24 hours for this market . Michael i think with no great certainty. We dont know who is going to win the election. It looks likely that biden will win. Not clear that the democrats will take the senate. What is even less clear is what Immediate Reaction will be. There are certain things that seem to be happened globally. I think that will continue, whoever wins the white house. Pretty much Everything Else i think you simply have to say you dont know and deal with not knowing. Tom i wanted to get away from the domestic politics. We will do that with some other good guests this morning. I am fascinated by what you think about e. M. In what seems to be not a surge, but a resiliency up to e. M. Whys that occurring . Michael one is index composition. The index is absolutely dominated by asia, particularly south korea, taiwan, china, and hong kong. Those countries are the least affected large economies by covid directly, so you have stable domestic demand. They also feed heavily into technology and heavy industrial activity that remains the strongest part of the domestic u. S. Economy. For various reasons, this time around e. M. Is something of a haven, and the underlying currencies are strong. I would say the dollar is less week at 94 rather than strong at 94, but the currencies which have really been strong this year have been the asian currencies. You put all of that together, is a relatively safe place to be right now. Lisa what is more important for your investment thesis, the election or the path of the virus . Michael i would say the latter, and the impact of the latter on demand for durable goods. That has been the plot of the last few months, the resilience and acceleration of spending on durable goods in the face of a virus which has not been under control, certainly in the United States. Jonathan what do you see in the highfrequency data at the moment . Do you think that should drive risk assets in the United States . Michael i think it is less important than it was. The highfrequency data told us in the springtime that people were starting to engage in commerce again. I dont think it is as important today with the fluctuations you see in Something Like restaurant usage. That you do need a leap of faith to invest at this point in time. I think you were entitled i think you are entitled to say the virus not be conquered for the foreseeable future, and you are going to go super defensive. I think that would be a mistake. Or to say we have come this far and we have seen patterns of spending emerge from the virus that looked to be resilient and look to be fairly longlasting. Now a portfolio that focuses on virussitives of the probably makes sense going forward. Tom i want to bring up a really important series, the pacific japan. A currencies, less the chart goes back to the beginning of the year. Adxy. At that is not the right chart, folks. We will get it for you in a bit. It has basically been a moonshot. Within that, what is the specificity in the this vikram off of the march in the pacific rim off of the march low . It is a moonshot from march, straight up on the chinese currency. What is the specificity on the pacific rim . I want you to get granular. Do you buy big cap . Do you buy consumer . Korea and taiwan, both i find interesting. The aide market does whatever it wants to do. It doesnt pay a great deal of attention to the rest of the world. But i think highquality korean and taiwan to make sense right now. Jonathan Michael Shaoul of market field asset management, great to catch up with you. A little later on this program, we will catch up with Kevin Cirilli down and washington, d. C. As we count you down to that election day. Dare i say election day result. That has what we have been discussing over the last two months. Will we actually get one come wednesday morning . Times had at the great break down hourbyhour of what we see through tuesday. David westin with our coverage there. Ill tell you, you get out to 11 00 p. M. , 1 00 a. M. Wednesday time, then what . Nobody has a clue. Jonathan axios reporting that the president has confidence that maybe he will declare victory tuesday night if it looks like he is ahead, even if the electoral outcome hasnt been decided and even if we havent heard from some of the major states. That just speaks to the tension at the moment. Even here in london, i can feel it, the building tension on either side wing into this result, going into this final day of voting. Jonathan thank you so much for bringing this up tom thank you so much for bringing this up. I had this conversation at the dining room table saturday night. This is america. It is normal. 1800, 1824, 1879, and on and on. This is the normal cadence. Granted, with the social media, it is in our face, but it is normal to have close battle elections in america. Jonathan everyone is imagining dinner with tom keene. [laughter] lisa hold on a second. Tom let me rephrase. Jonathan being confronted with that on a saturday night. Tom it was held in honor of sir sean connery. We drank vespers each weekend. Lisa i actually think this is a different election then we have had in the past. The level of social unrest on all sides is something very concerning for a lot of people. You can see people batten down the hatches and markets. You see windows boarded up in midtown because people are expecting some sort of unrest should the election be too close to call. This does feel different, a little bit. Jonathan i was going to let you have the final word, tom. Do you want to say anything . Tom i was going to talk arsenal and manchester united. Jonathan itjonathan is a really quiet week, tom. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tom secondplace. [laughter] jonathan we advance this morning. Good morning to you all. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. The president ial campaign is now in its final full day. A series of polls show Democrat Joe Biden leading President Trump nationally and in battleground states. Still, some of those estates remain extremely close. Both candidates will Campaign Today in pennsylvania. The state is vital to biden chances and has become almost a must win for the president as well. President trump is suggesting he may fire Infectious Diseases chief Anthony Cousy after the election. Over the weekend, chief Anthony Fauci after the election. Over the weekend, felty said that over the weekend, fauci said the country is in for a lot of pain with the coronavirus. The Federal Reserve wont increase the pace of asset purchases this year or next. Most of those polled by bloomberg said even if the fed did boost bond buying, it wouldnt meaningfully boost the u. S. Economy. Fed policymakers meet wednesday and thursday. Brexit negotiators are moving closer to breaking the impasse over one of the biggest obstacles to a trade deal. A compromise is emerging on the issue of what i access boats from the eu will have to british fishing waters. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump i think its a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after election. I think its a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over. Mr. Biden theres nothing you can do to try to intimidate the American People about voting, scare people about voting, challenge the idea that voting is not going to count. It is not going to happen. 90 Million People at this point have already voted. Those people are going to be heard. Jonathan absolutely incredible in the United States. President trump and joe biden on a contested election, 48 hours to go. Lets get to the price action this morning. Good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Two hours and 12 minutes from the opening bell, futures nicely bid. We bounce back from last weeks losses. On the week last week, down 5. 64 on the s p 500. Tech, it has been brutal for tech. Since the september high, down about 8 or 9 . Up 44 this morning, we advance 1. 3 . Not much price action to speak of elsewhere in foreignexchange and in the bond market right now, not least the euro and the u. S. Tenyear. Crude, 34 and on wti. Off. Ave another 2. 7 handle got my attention, to say the least. Right now on the election, theres any number of ways to go with our Kevin Cirilli, but hes told us we need to keep it to seven minutes instead of seven hours. He is our chief washington correspondent. Theres tons of Good Research out there. The New York Times did a great job on the battleground counties. They went to erie, pennsylvania, where one strategist called it the oracle of pennsylvania. I is the oracle of pennsylvania. 11 off ofnton lost president obama the last election. Is your research that mr. Narrow that erie, in pennsylvania . Kevin he is still trying to get out the vote effort. It really is the tale of how you look at it. From the democratic perspective, they say he is not barnstorming around the country like President Trump, and that he is really focused on pennsylvania, where his campaign is headquartered, to turn it around. From the democratic perspective, they are saying joe biden should have pa lacked up pa locked up by now, but that fracking ff from the last debate really hurting him. This is a lot closer than the National Polls are indicating, but it really depends on how these states break. Tom in my little brain right now on a monday, i cant figure this out. I read somewhere that somebody is talking about President Biden would not have sanders or the senator from massachusetts in his cabinet. Does he need to make some bold Statement Today about seizing the middle ground of his administration to go over the top . Kevin i think what his campaign would tell you is that he has been able to draw a widespread coalition spanning from the likes of senator bernie sanders, the father of the democraticsocialist movement [indiscernible] he needs john kasich. Thats what i would argue, hes also been able to put together a coalition with former republican governor john kasich. But the question is, is that good enough for the union of philly, ine detroit, michigan . Kenosha county obviously the site over the summer of some racial unrest. Something President Trump won by just 200 votes last cycle. This is also a ground zero of sorts for many of the Economic Issues we are talking about repeatedly over the past couple of months. So could this be an electoral blowout for joe biden . Yeah, but it also could be one for President Trump if you look at just how close these swing states are. Lets fold and wall street. Everything will piece of research ive read all reflect on 2016 and the polls. Can you walk me through your comparison between 2020 polls in 2016 . Biden is running a campaign from the beginning of his cup political career, even before he announced he was going to start the cycle. The calculation was run a bluecollar type of coalition campaign. Try not to go too far to the left. He was able to tap into that with senator kamala harris. He has been defined by the right is going too far to the left. We will have to wait to see if that is a strategy that works. Progressives will tell you he should have doubled down and moved to the left like bernie sanders. But if you are pricing out the next two months, weve got cases on the rise. If you subscribe to the thought now germany, france, and conservative u. K. Are having to have new restrictions, that would raise some significant Political Risk that the United States has additional restrictions in december at a time in which fiscal stimulus fights will be restarting. From a market perspective, it is divorced upon the volatility of this week. Some peoplenate, would argue, is more important when it comes to wall street following the election. Where are we in terms of the suppose it blue wave in the senate . Kevin i would totally agree that the senate race and who wins control of the senate is going to be the definition of whether or not President Trump and a second term is able to govern with a more middle approach, but also obviously President Biden. Hypothetically, lets say he gets a blue wave. Hes going to have to govern more progressively. But if it is a divided government, he would argue there is a mandate for him to do this. Races back34 senate in 2016. All of them, the way the state voted at the top of the ticket was how they voted for the senate. The idea of ticket splitting in georgia, and south carolina, and north carolina, where republicans are starting to say vote for me even if you dont vote for President Trump, historically speaking that has not been the case. But we will see if it has been a game changer this week. Jonathan Kevin Cirilli working on his birthday. Its a beautiful thing. Lisa happy birthday. Kevin thank you. Nowhere else id rather be on a dat on a day like today. Jonathan this is where i would like to be on my birthday as well. I think everyone would want to spend their birthday on this program. Kevin, thank you. [laughter] lisa is that a new banner . Jonathan everyone should want to spend their birthday with tom keene, getting excited about our special election coverage, beginning tuesday night, 7 00 p. M. Tom his birthday is today . Jonathan how are you managing the tuesday night into wednesday morning . Tom i havent figured that out. I will be starting early in the morning. You only have tv two hours a day, so what do you know . Jonathan i will have a long lien. A nice big breakfast. Awesome. Tom i will be having crackers. Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg. Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Monday morning price action looks a little Something Like this. A nice lift to this equity market, bouncing back from some brutal losses last week. On the s p 500, we advance 1. 31 . In the bond market, yields up friday. Thats got to hurt. The euro stable. Eurodollar, 1. 1650. Euro weakness as lockdowns in euro took a hammer to this marke