Services. Westpacs full year profits plunge after fines for Money Laundering. Cash earnings falls. One of those stocks where watching going into the sydney open. Lets look at the market open. Sophie . Expecting some moves this monday. The biggest weekly drop since september 25 as investors adjust the some of the risk ahead. We did have the worst week for aussie stocks since april. Adding 0. 1 . We have amp shares gaining trillionter the this wealth manager said that a preliminary takeover approach of every management values the company at 4. 5 billion. Westpac has results out this morning. Later this week we get results upm alibaba which ticked single day sales early on sunday. The ipo is a big event we are watching this week. We are expecting a big pop here on thursday given the massive appetite we have seen for the offering. Friday had the biggest drop since june. Of a private survey of chinese manufacturing data. To focus more on the u. N. , lets pull up on the chart on the terminal. A are seeing this jump to record on bloomberg data since 2011. Shery, more investors see gains ahead. Cibc forecasting it will reach 650 by 2021. Shery we are in the final stretch of the race for the white house which has been twists, the pandemic and the death of a Supreme Court justice. None of it seems to have altered a course set months ago. Joe biden continues to lead trump in the polls. Some races remain extremely close. That 90 Million People have already cast ballots. What do we know about not only the ballots cast but what the polls are showing this week . We have seen some polling on those early ballots. Polls showingve that joe biden has a big leak in those early ballots. People who say that they will vote on election day heavily favor trump. The moreathematics, people who vote early could throw the election to biden. Its very close in many states. Pennsylvania we have talked about numerous times. Many cases are within the margin of error. There can be errors. Everyone was taking they want to vote for. Capturing people who are on the mobile phone these days. There are so many uncertainties. We have seen a little bit of change in polls in states like iowa. We saw surprising polls showing President Trump whitehead way ahead. Some indications with states like georgia, north arelina, republican states close and could be pickups for t he democrats. There is a huge get out the vote effort underway. Trump has been barnstorming the country with rallies. Its very close and we dont know yet. Haidi were looking at the potential legal implications. Joe biden morning he would not let President Trump declare a victory before the results are clear. At what point are we seeing voter intimidation become an issue in these last few days . We have seen the Donald Trump Campaign put out calls for people to be poll watchers. Some people think it is an invitation to intimidate people going to the polls. That will be an issue. Were looking at various legal actions still rolling in from the Supreme Court on down about how mailin ballots will be treated. Cast andre the votes stamped and mailed in by election day, if they dont get there for a few days, will they be counted . Republican authorities have been trying to limit that. Democrats have been trying to get more people to vote. There have been decisions by the Supreme Court and others on both sides. When biden says he wont let trump declare victory, i dont think he has a lot of power to stop what trump says, but in terms of what will happen, i would hope that every vote is counted. We do have Vice President joe biden speaking at a rally. These are the final couple of days as candidates head to the Campaign Event they have in this final stretch. We heard the Vice President talk about 80 pro trump trucks around his home. Today we had some incidents related to his campaign. What do we know . On friday there was an incident in texas where the Biden Campaign bus, biden was not on the bus nor was kamala as harassed the bus w on the highway by people in pickup trucks with trump flags and trump stickers. There is an investigation going into that. This incident outside bidens home, a lot of people honking horns and creating a disturbance. It seems to be more obnoxious than anything else. Its an indication of how fraught a lot of the u. S. Is at th emoment. It seems juvenile to me. Toll see if it leads anything more threatening or damaging over the next couple of days. Washington editor there. We will get more on the u. S. Election. Siegemunds mobile advisors will be joining us in the next hour. We will also hear from the former white house secretary kim haugard. Karina we start with the pandemic. Rising coronavirus numbers are. Orcing more nations france, england germany and the the u. S. Reasing reported more than 78,000 cases over the weekend stop governments unveil new lockdown rules. The u. K. Will go back to its own lockdown. Now banned. Broad is economists expect the bank to cut the cash rate to 0. 1 of from 0. 2 5 while reiterating no tightening for three years. Haszealands Prime Minister earned a Cooperation Agreement. They secured a record landslide last month. She says the deal signed does not require consensus on policy or even alignment. Global news, 24 hours a day, on bloomberg and at quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Haidi this trillion lender westpac which came out with grim results the australian lender westpac which came out with grim results. We are seeing the bounceback when it comes to the today. They said that they expect improvement when it comes to the more reachable performance going into 2021. Still reporting that four year profit plunging with the breach of antiMoney Laundering laws and the coronavirus lockdowninduced recession. That is causing concerns when it comes to bad debt charges. We are seeing a bit of a relief rally. We have been hitting the oil markets. The lowest level since may. We already have data that they added rigs for the sixth straight week of weekly gains. Coming up next, a big week on neweconomic front after data suggest that chinaesque of a recovery is largely on track chinas recovery is largely on track. This is bloomberg. Shery new data from china suggesting the economic recovery remains on track. Services seeing a boost from spending through golden week. We get the pmi rating coming in later. The start of a week that includes policy decisions from us really and malaysia. Richard, if we want the good news, and the news of a solid recovery, what can happen when the virus gets under control . We continue to look at china with these comforting economic readings. I agree that it is not just china. Much of the current time zone of the asian region has managed covid well. They used lockdowns in the right way to deal with the virus properly. Track and trace has been an important part of the arsenal. What china is doing is you can have a recovery in the , but policymakers have a bit of time when it comes to structural issues and they are not destroying to put out spot fires around covid or in europe. Throat thist to chart looking at new orders and new export orders. These readings are crucial for some of the exporting countries. It is pretty encouraging that you see new orders bouncing back and inventories of Raw Materials starting to draw down a bit. Is this a reverse situation of when china countries like australia will continue to ride on the coattails . I think so, but australia and other parts of asia have their domestic houses in order. One of the errors that people have made is to presume that the recovery and the goods parts of our economies can only go back. O where it was prepandemic aboveod sectors are well precovid levels. Trade is well above what we saw precovid. Part of the economic story in australia, the rba decision this week, the expectation seems to be for a cut. Will it be eclipsed by what is happening in the u. S. . I think that the rba has a chance to in effect recalibrate. The reality is they are in a globalized world. That puts pressure on the currency and they probably need to that. I agree with the consensus, the bank will do something tomorrow. The intention will be to signal immaterial extension. Decision isks outoftheway it allows guys to turn to the u. S. Haidi fair to assume we will see losses for the aussie dollar . Some people are nervous. The blue wave idea had some currency and some of that got baked into the aussie dollar and people have become more nervous. It seems to me that a blue wave is likely. That people are misinterpreting a slight narrowing in the polls. Seeingl results we are are only relevant for a smaller portion of the electorate. Its harder to see such an extreme tightening but that is all undone. I think that the inflationary expectations of what a Biden Victory would look like, and what a Trump Victory might look like given the expectation of more stimulus either way. Be expect that differential in an unexpected way . The inflation story is quite hard. There are a range of views out there. Inflation is going to pick up a lot. The inflation dynamic looks quite different from what we saw after the financial crisis. This time Inflationary Pressure came and went in a number of months. There is quite a different environment and fiscal stimulus im not expecting a big move in inflation. Shery we have age restrictions in melbourne and no doubt we will get news on the reopening of borders. The domestic story has been key for any of these companies seeing a robust recovery. Is beingof that sustained by the fiscal cliff being pushed back . We know that the labor market continues to be fragile and some of these businesses might never come back. The fiscal stimulus is hugely important. The policy response has been unprecedented. There has been a little bit of a surprise in australia. Retail spending does not seem to have slowed in any cheerio way. There is more of the cliff to come, but i am encouraged so far that the government has got the calibration roughly right. Shery always great having your thoughts. We will have more perspective on chinas economy ahead. S spokesman joins us later. Here is how westpac is trading at the moment. At the start of trade we are seeing losses of 0. 4 . That is next. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Haidi a busy morning first trillion finance folks. For australian finance folks. The wealth manager revealing the value of the takeover offer revealed by the private equity firm. Lets get more on these stories. Ed johnson. As expected and ugly earnings season. Interestingly we saw the stocks jumping up to five straight sessions of losses. Is there a sense that as ugly as these were, the worst is behind them . Yes. The shares did rise this morning, despite yet more bad sector. The banking they are only at 0. 2 now and west Bank Reported the cash that is in line with analyst estimates. The cost is compensating wrongly treated customers with bad debt provisions increasing 3. 2 billion australian dollars, just that thendication recession smashing consumers and businesses. Final dividends having previously scrapped their payout anzreserve capital from the ink posting a 42 decline fullyear profit. T they are shery the a p jumping this morning given the proposal. The us wealth manager revealed what we have all been waiting to hear. The value of the offer. 6. 4 billion australian dollars. That is a sizable premium. 44 higher than where a p was trading on thursday before the approach was disclosed. The shares rocketed 20 on friday. They are up about another 8 this morning. Be waiting to see if a bidding war emerges. Here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. The cabledeal to buy billion. Pg for 2. 8 internet broadband producers have done well during the pandemic as more people stay at home. As u. S. Consumers shed traditional tv for highspeed internet. The chinese developer ever grant is selling a 41 stake for more than 2 billion in cash. The group will become the second biggest shareholder after the deal. Its an Investment Holding firm which states in Automotive Energy and logistics. January could cause a severe cash crunch. Has wasted no time in expanding the footprint in the middle east. He signed on ml you to open a Wealth Management business in qatar. Hammers became ceo after nearly seven years at the helm of the dutch bank ing. Upsucceeds Sergio Armani as looks to cut costs. Maps the 2020 election and what it means for financial policy. This is bloomberg. Hope it doesnt cost too much. I hope my insurance pays for it. Can you tell me how much this will be . [cashier] 67. Sorry. Wait, have you heard about goodrx . Goodrx finds free coupons to help you save up to 80 on your prescriptions. Wow, i had no idea. [announcer] goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. Karina this is daybreak asia. Factory gate performance fell slightly last month. It generally stabilize with Consumer Spending helping to lift services and showing the recovery remains on track. The manufacturing pmi index eased. Personal consumption ticked up slightly. The performance was likely affected by the golden week shut down. Seven prodemocracy lawmakers have been arrested in hong kong for their involvement in scuffles at alleged comedian may. Alleged in may. A Court Hearing expected for thursday. Chinese state media say further arrests cannot be ruled out. And criminal investigators will question in beirut next year in an inquiry. French authorities are looking into his dealings with the car distributor in omaha. Tf1 he has nos need to avoid questions and has a clear conscience. Thailand has made a rare appearance on the streets of bangkok calling the country a land of compromise. Protests continue against the monarchys powers. He and his wife greeted loyal supporters. He told the u. K. s channel four news that he loves all thais equally. Dead aftereported the philippines were hit by the strongest storm in the world this year. It forced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands. The airport close down for 24 hours but is expected to reopen. It is strengthening as it heads for vietnam. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Early voting has continued to show record turnout. 93 million voters have cast early ballots. That is more than two thirds of the total votes cast in the 2016 election. Meyer,ring in charles chairman and founder of sigmund global advisors. He has also advised the Biden Campaign on economic matters. It is great to have you with us. You say that you are confident in your base Case Scenario of a biden win. What gives you that confidence . In theuple of trends early voting that are interesting to us. The hsheer Record Number of people who have voted early both mailin and inperson have surpassed expectations. We think that there will be higher than expected record turnout from democrats and independents which favors joe biden. A couple other things, people like to focus, and the media is focusing on the number of democrats and republicans who have turned out. In personosen voting, republicans have a slight edge. But if you add the democratic mailin and independent voters who are looking at 70 of early voting which favors biden. Two quick trends that we are watching is the large increase in turnout from younger voters. In texas it has been three times what it was in 2016. Secondly, very high turnout from women. Turnedgia, women have out by a margin of 12 points over men. Young voters, women voting and a large number of overall democrats and independents reinforce our base case. We think democrats will take the senate. Some think we will see the enthusiasm of 2008. Tell us what a blue wave across congress will mean . What we keep hearing is that President Biden would increase taxes. What sort of taxes are we talking about. The question we always get asked by our clients is what the market do if the client wins. How will the Financial Markets perform . I would argue that stockmarkets do well when democrats are in the white house. I dont see any difference there. The one thing we are highlighting is being underpriced or underappreciated. The extent by which corporate and personal tax will go up next year. There is a strong narrative that because biden will inherit a weak economy, he may be inclined to go slower and phase them in by 2022. We think that biden and his team are very serious about raising the corporate and personal tax next year and making them retroactive to january 2021. The average hit for s p 500 companies is around 12 . Most people believe that this will happen in 2022. Most have not yet factored in these potential tax increases into their models. Underpriced risk at the moment. Haidi i want to throw up this chart for urinalysis. Your of chart for analysis. 2016 it seems like a similar chart. Do you look at that and a part of you is concerned that we will not get a blue sweep but a red wave about these potential silent majority supporters for President Trump . And even about voter intimidation on election day . The concern is that given up almost every buddy got 2016 wrong, they may be wrong again, but there are some big differences. Biden has maintained a consistent seven to 10 point lead over trump. Four years ago, hilary only had a two to three point lead. Within the swing states, biden has had a larger lead in the swing states of wisconsin, pennsylvania and michigan. There are big differences in terms of how much further ahead biden is. The other big difference today is that only about 4 of voters were undecided going into the election. Combined with the fact that 93 million americans have voted means that once they have made up their minds, we are seeing President Trumps poll numbers improve. Most people made up their minds have alreadyn vot