We were down 5 from the peak on spx. Where we are is about where we were on valentines day. Of course, you do remember valentines day. That was prepandemic. All we have really done is pulled back to the prepandemic. Weve got to put some perspective on this as we saw the dow down 800, 900 yesterday. Jonathan im not sure why i am the target of room bring valentines day of remembering valentines day. Its you im worried about. Tom that would be true. Jonathan because you often dont remember it. Tom that would be true. Rosesgh i do remember a scenario with jon years ago. Lisa you are trying to bring me into this . [laughter] for those in engineering and history, this is a hugely emotional deal. The difference from san jose to santa clara, it is like four, maybe five miles. But xilinx is one of the storied names coming out of fairchild years and years ago. To see this merger today, 35 billion large, it really says something about the combination of all of the history in the bay area. Jonathan 35 billion in stock the tale of two companies in one sector. Intel not so great at the moment, and amd really performing. That seems to be the story in that industry at the moment. Tom to me, speaking as an amateur in engineering, to me the story is intel really didnt play. Taking out 5000 employees at xilinx. The intel that we knew tenant 20 ibm, ago, may be akin to is a changed company. Jonathan lets get to the data coming out in the united states. Lisa we could keep talking about valentines day, or go with amd. Just to fill out this concept of two Different Companies within the same industry, we will get a 30,000 foot view of Business Investment at 8 30 a. M. Capital investment is a sign of , and by many accounts, it has been coming down. 1 00 p. M. , u. S. Auctions. There are a series of recordbreaking treasury auctions this week. The question is, at what point does the incredible supply overwhelm the demand . So far, no sign of that. Aftermarket, we are getting earnings from microsoft, trying to get a sense of whether they even matter or whether the big tech names set to report thursday, amazon, alphabet, apple, whether they will have to deliver or whether it is completely an Interest Rate play. Jonathan the earnings a little bit later from microsoft, and then on thursday, we are going to hear from who . , all, amazon, facebook thursday afternoon. It is a massive day coming up a little later. Tom i am triple leveraged allcash, but i read on amazon today very carefully. Ende blunt, he is at high of the street. Hes got a 4000 target on amazon, up 20 in short order. But he was extremely optimistic about not only become venetian of those cardboard boxes that everybody sees in their lobby not only the combination of those cardboard boxes that everybody sees in their lobby, but also the cloud. Jonathan stock up in the 0. 7 . Ket, up heres the price action this morning. Sb 500nced 0. 4 on the on the s p 500. Tom was sleeping. In the bond market, 10 year yield unchanged. You know how this works. I framed the guest from Morgan Stanley, they talk about a vshaped recovery, and they were right. Everyone else was wrong. Lisa asks some questions about why they might be wrong in a month, two months. Those are the next five minutes here on bloomberg. Andrew slimmon joins us now. What is the latest call right now . How do you see the evolution of this call at the house of Morgan Stanley that has been pretty spot on for the last six months . Manager,s a portfolio i see the evolution as the equal weighted s p outperforming cap weighted. As you know, up through september, the cap weighted was massively outperforming equal weighted, massively outperforming the smallcap index, and then something happened. We are starting to see more of these economically sensitive stocks starting to pick up. Ishink the evolution is it not so much at the market level. It is more the rest of the stocks that have really liked behind. I think they are starting to ,rice some type of reopening but they did get very overbought on a shortterm basis. So things like yesterday dont surprise me at all, that we had a retrenchment. Tom i want you to find the character and color of patience right now. How do you counsel patience out to january or february . Of next year . February of next year . Andrew well, i am counseling patience out to next tuesday. Look, ive got gray here. Ive been in this business a long time. So many people react by doing things in their financial portfolio to express their political views that never turn out to be right. So i am trying to get people to just look past it. Next year,ertains to theres a history of outbreaks of diseases in the fall after the initial outbreaks in the winter and spring previous, and you dont get as much of a pullback in the market because it is a known risk. We knew we were going to get another reemergence. So i dont think from a financial standpoint it will cause the destruction we had the first go round, and i think the market will begin to anticipate that we will get through this at some point, that comparison for a lot of companies that were shut down this year is going to be very easy next year, and the market wont sit around and wait for the reality of that to happen next year. It is going to start to anticipate that as we get later into this year. I think we get through the election, and it doesnt really matter who is elected. The comparisons are going to be easy for a lot of these companies. Tom perhaps 10 minutes ago lisa perhaps 10 minutes ago, i might have asked you what happens with the vaccine, or if the virus is spreading more than expected, but that would make me incredibly protectable to jon ferro, so instead i will ask theoretically, if someone were in a triple leveraged cash fund right now and were looking for an entry point, what they should be buying. Should theyhow be arranging their portfolio for what you are expecting next year . Andrew at this very moment, i sold in our that we portfolio a couple of financial stocks, not the big banks, but had gone up a lot. I trimmed one of our emerging market stocks that had gone up a lot. I think theres been a lot of risk on since the bottom of this little shortterm pullback that happened in september, and a lot of things to me look very overbought on a shortterm basis. Risk looks overbought. It doesnt surprise me that we got a pullback. Think, positioning wise, if we get further pullback anxiety into the election, but i would say is take advantage. Get out of that cash position because i think it doesnt really matter who is elected. I think the market is heading higher into the next year. But again, i am much more confident in the equal weighted then the cap weighted. Jonathan so on november 4, if we get any kind of negative dislocation, we know that you are a buyer. Andrew well, again, we knew that covid reemergence was a known risk. We know that dislocation is code for contested election. That is a known risk. We didnt know in 2000 about a contested election. Bush v gore was an unknown risk. We had a pullback in that unknown risk. It doesnt mean we cant have a pullback, but i dont think it is going to be as much because we are all talking about it. So the question is, what are the unknown risks we are not talking about . What happens if the economy accelerates to fast and the fed changes policy . What if we have another fed chair next year . Thats what the market tends to react more negatively to. Jonathan andrew, great to catch up, sir. Thank you. Wasnt quite as i predicted, but it was close. [laughter] thank you very much. We can joke about it because i always congratulate them every time i come on. The house of Morgan Stanley over the last six months has been out there, constructive, positive, and they have been right. Or as lisa would say, they have been right so far. Tom but this comes down to, for everybody listening and watching , are you linking politics directly into your investment or not . Everybody has sort of a core belief on that. Ive learned over the years that people really link, and others dont. The Research Capability is extraordinary. I was flabbergasted that long stem roses now dont cost what they cost on february 13 of any year. Jonathan i really oh really . How much do they cost . Tom this was a university of chicago deep study. On amazon, they give you a free vase. That is way beneath what you spend for wilted roses on february 13. Move the decimal point over what you got taken for on the island of manhattan. Jonathan i think im short roses going into the new year. Tom im looking for an entry point. [laughter] jonathan you can slice that any which way you want. I might have been long roses. I am most certainly short roses. Dave ricks of eli lilly is watching. Hes probably rescheduling. Coming up a little bit later on bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Amy Coney Barrett has been sworn in as a justice of the Supreme Court. The first of two required oaths was administered not long after the senate voted 5248 to confirm her. Every republican but one voted to confirm her. Chief Justice John Roberts is to deliver the second oath today at the court. Surge thatronavirus started with Young Americans has now reached the oldest population. , countiesto the cdc with the largest 65 and older population now have 19,000 cases per 100,000 residents, 60 higher than a month ago. China ramped up purchases of American Goods last month. Still, it is far from the target set out under phase one of the trade deal with the u. S. With three months to go in the year, beijing is a little more than 1 3 of the way to 170 billion in u. S. Imports. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. It is the job of a judge to resist her policy preferences. It would be a dereliction of duty for her to give into them. Federal judges dont stand for election. Thus, they have no basis for claiming that their preferences reflect those of the people. Jonathan amy Coney Barrett, Supreme Court justice. From new york and london this morning, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Looking at the market this morning, we bounce back a little bit on the s p 500, up 13. As the session grows older, things improve a little bit more , up 0. 4 . Lower,fx market, a euro a 1. 17 handle. Upthe last hour, we pick again, 1. 1817. 10 basis points higher on the 10 year yield, and then we come back down again yesterday. Yields unchanged on the session. Tom i thought it was really noncorrelated. 4 00 a phone call around p. M. After the surveillance nap, and really saw an uncorrelated market. I saw equities pullback, and that was about it. What we are doing with Kevin Cirilli is a lot on the immediate politics, with the video we just saw of justice barrett. I thought i would wander through the ages here. 55, 65, 66, 60, and then we get to clarence thomas, 72, and justice breyer, 82 years old. Is there any assumption here that a biden presidency brings the court back towards neutrality . Or do you put some weight in this raging debate about stacking the court . Great point a because i think right now in always been we had used to traditionally conservative or liberal Supreme Court judges. I think now, theres almost three camps on the Supreme Court. Youve got the left, the right, and the middle, and the middle is going to be what moves the needle. Tom who is the middle . Who is the Anthony Kennedy right now . Kevin i think to some extent, you could argue anything i say, i think there are some scholars who would suggest someone like gorsuch is more to the middle right now, and has been an incredibly important vote. But on the Affordable Care act case that is coming up, in the week following the election, i think we are going to have a new understanding of the makeup of the court. But that image, if you are looking at the front pages of your newspapers this morning or watching via television right withjust see the president an africanamerican Supreme Court justice, and of course, amy Coney Barrett is a female, that is the image that, one week from an election, republicans are hoping will carry the swing vote or push turnout in suburbs and remind republicans who are very apprehensive of the president s rhetoric, of the president s approach to politics, in terms of what he is capable of delivering. It is a calculation, but it is an image that republicans feel is probably more beneficial to them than that first president ial debate. Tom i look at the moment that we are in. Does any of the talk you just had a play into the election . To me, they are two discrete things. And i write . Am i right . Kevin i dont know. You look at the latest polls that show florida with a razor thin tossup. Democrats are looking to expand to map, looking finally turn texas blue. Look at what is happening in the carolinas. I dont think we have a good idea yet of what is going to happen. The president is going to be bulldozing through battleground states, holding three rallies yesterday in pennsylvania. He will be holding up to six rallies a day. This is the same playbook he used back in 2016. Joe biden taking a much different approach, trying to be much more consistent in terms of his messaging. He feels that less is more, according to the sources i talk with on the reelection campaign. They feel that they are in a strong position. However, they are still anxious to have a repeat of 2016. Jonathan i keep bringing this up. I get it is the strategy. Keep the spotlight on the president. The one thing he doesnt want to talk about, covid, is the one thing everyone is still talking about. But in the final week of campaigning, dont you think the former vp needs to be a little more visible . Kevin i think it is a great point, and i think whenever the results of this election are determined, i think they will either be called political fumblednds or that they a massive political campaign. I just think it is a risk that they are taking, but it is without question a massive political risk. Twocouldnt have more of contrasting candidates, and i am not talking about donald trump. I am talking about Vice President ial nominee Kamala Harris and president ial nominee joe biden. Harris loves to be on the trail, wants to be out there, and joe biden has taken a much different approach. I think his legacy and his decades long career as a politician, who he is now as a politician is not who he was in the sense that hes not that retail politician that we saw for decades. The meantime, senators all went home. We were talking about talks about talks about fiscal support. We are no longer talking about talks. Everyone went home. What gives . Kevin i spoke to kevin cramer, a republican from north dakota. He said, i always said the lameduck session is winston u. S. Would happen. I rolled my eyes. More were little optimistic. I think if you are wicking up this morning and trying to figure out where the fiscal stimulus is headed, he said the inform notsults will the First Quarter negotiations, but the lameduck negotiations. That is a fascinating nuance in terms of how the fiscal stimulus could be informed, of who has leverage in the month of december. If it is republicans, it is going to be a much smaller price tag. But even if it is democrats, i think they would be willing to deal. Shortterm, smaller if biden wins, pass a massive amount in the First Quarter of next year. Jonathan we are all waiting for the fiscal hawks to come out of hibernation once again. Lisa cant wait. Jonathan Kevin Cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. Kevinsttle feel for life on capitol hill then. Shouting,t go around hey kev. [laughter] tom i was walking with mr. So really across Lafayette Park a number of months ago was mr. Li across Lafayette Park on number of months ago. It is on the edge of worship. Jonathan i bet it is. More of that still to come, a week away from a general election. Hey, kev. Do you want to see that again . Come on. Tom im happy the tots won. It was spine tingling. Jonathan thats the good news. Im dough hirsch. You may already know that goodrx can help you save up to 80 on your prescriptions. Unfortunately, Many Americans cant get to a doctor right now. The good news is that for many Health Issues you can see a doctor online. Its easy. Just go to goodrx. Com and with a few clicks youll be treated by a licensed medical professional all from the comfort of your own home. Visits are confidential and affordable. Need a prescription . Your doctor can send it to your pharmacy or have it mailed to you. Get the healthcare you deserve at goodrx. Com. Jonathan from london and new york, good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tuesday morning, two hours away from the opening bell, heres the price action. The s p 500 bouncing back, up 15, 0. 4 . Fuels and yields unchanged on the tenure. On foreignexchange, the euro backup to a 1. 18 handle. Brian nick of nuveen says the lack of fiscal stimulus is weighing heavily on the market outlook. Beenose programs have all expired, and theres not really a promise for any replacement until perhaps the middle of next year. I think what we are seeing is a pause by markets as they evaluate what this is going to mean for earnings and for the economy as a whole in the fourth quarter. Jonathan jonathan heres the take jonathan heres the take of Chris Watling of longview economics. The latest money supply data support the contention that further stimulus isnt necessary. What is needed is a vaccine. That would release the full effects of the stimulus. That is a take that Chris Watling doesnt just total loan. That is a take many people share with him dust doesnt just hold alone doesnt just hold alone. That is a take that many people share with him. Tom i love the idea of pushing against the pimco religion of new normal. What does it mean forward . Chris the old normal, if you lik