Francine one week to go, biden picks up his campaign pace as the senate hands the Supreme Court judge confirmation to trump and republicans. Syphilis Nancy Pelosi Nancy pelosi and Steve Mnuchin failed to make a deal. And chief executive noah quinn cast credit losses. Paybank aims to conservative diffidence. Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene in new york, im french on the quad and london. That Francine Lacqua and london. We have hsbc, we talk about dividends. Bp saying it will be a very volatile couple of quarters ahead. Tom the pandemic overlay was still ahead. That was the theme yesterday, far more than the election, it was certainly the talk of new york. Every conversation was about a reinventing of the pandemic. Thee going to try to put nearlyhrough today, not as much damage as you would we are witht here futures up six. Francine and what is also significant is a lot of european countries, there seems to be a backlash against governments that are trying to put too many restrictions in the eyes of people that want to get back to work. We will have a look to that. Lets get to bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika amy new Coney Barrett has been sworn and as a justice of the Supreme Court. Voted 5248 to confirm her. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the second oath today at the court. Her confirmation solidifies the 63 conservative majority. The record can arrive bit more toward the goal of 170 billion dollars in u. S. Imports. The demand a clear route out of locked down parts of Northern Britain that helped give him a majority in the last election, the lawmakers told Boris Johnson s strategy of targeting local areas with restrictions with disproportionally damaging the economies of the northern region. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i ritikacountries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Off the carnage yesterday, lets recalibrate if we can. 32. 53. Up six, vix we went to the 30 level about 24 hours ago, and now another 2. 5 big figures, 32. 52. In the bond market, remarkable yield,with a 10year. 80 . They move, but not all that much. Brent, 40. 72. Other than to say turkish lira off the moving average study of the end of july of a 16 depreciation, age i normas depreciation sets an important normasa joint depreciate an enormous depreciation. Per dollar. Francine im looking at a lot of the earnings coming from european stocks, european stocks opening lower. Investors are trying to way positive earnings reports. When you look at european leaders in european countries, it looks like they are going toward more research ands or lockdowns. Because we have bp, i also wanted to look at crude alleging higher to treasuries, german bunds much steadier. To talk about the markets and the way forward for the lockdown, joining us now is Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer. Thank you for joining us. What is the market looking at . Are they worried about a doubledip recession because of these restrictions on the economy, or did they look at earnings and hope for the best when it comes to stimulus in the u. S. . Uptick in think the the virus, it is looking much more likely that we are going to have soft forms of lockdowns, maybe not the full lockdowns that we had in the spring. It is hard to see how you avoid a doubledip reception in europe recession in europe. The Services Part of the economy is a big part of the economy everywhere in the developed world, and the services have been hit hard. It is going that direction for several weeks, but will stay at home in the last few days. Francine every single european government says we will not go into a lockdown, and of course the options are narrowing and this is where we are headed. How can they mitigate it, and can we afford to mitigate it . Wayick i dont know which the political winds will blow. The strategy right now is that ie hospitals are filled and dont think they will deviate from it. In place tosigns slow the spread of it. It seems to be in europe that the strategy of lockdowns will be initiated if needed, and the hospitalizations seems to be moving in that direction. Tom this is unfair a tuesday before an election. What percentage has corporations adapted to the pandemic . Are they like three quarters of the way on to where they have to be, given a long pandemic, or is there a lot more adjustment and adaptation to go . Ifrick i dont know companies have adopted that much. I think the ones that have the winning Business Models have not needed to adapt and have been the winners of q1, so the Health Care Companies are not impacted by this, the technology and the committee occasions are net beneficiaries from working at home, staying at home, various forms of electronic communication. Those are the real winners. Other companies, it has been subtle changes where they are trying to get through it rather than trying to create strategies where they can win. I think that is the playbook you have got to look for, the winners from q1 and q2 are probably going to win out if we have another lockdown for the remainder of this year. Francine joseph element reaffirmingfeldman an outperform on amazon in this pandemic. His price target is 4000, and i will call that a 20 pop from here. Joe feldman with an outperform on amazon. When you see that, patrick, there is an idea of rotation in the market. Does the market leave big tex successes behind . Tech is i think big cap where you want a portion of your capital right now. Yields are even more expensive versus their history, so big cap tech is very expensive. I can see how they will grow their way into the multiples. We dont own amazon, but we do own alphabet, facebook, and apple. All of them expensive. All of them will grow their way into multiples. When they reach zero, im happy to have companies that reach winning Business Models. Rather than the feeling companies that just see earnings and Business Models destroyed by whats going on. Francine if you are a consumer company, you dont have very high multiples, but youre still selling toothpaste. What do you do with that industry . Know if i dont toothpaste is impacted necessarily. Highend, Luxury Consumer i think that sector as a whole is performing very well. It is the Services Sector rather than the consumer goods that are really impacted. Travel, leisure, movie theaters, things like that. There is just no answer to it. The Services Part of the economy is really in trouble, and i dont see a creek way out of it right now. A quick way out of it right now. Tom Patrick Armstrong with us today. With mr. Ontinue armstrong. This is going to be interesting. Talk about rip up the script. He is in the news, the chief executive officer from indiana. That must mean eli lilly. David ricks will join us. That company decidedly in the news with a challenging antibody test. We will speak with him in the 7 00 hour. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Pres. Trump covid, covid, covid. That is all they talk about. What progress we have made on it, too. We understand it. We know we have to protect our seniors, especially where they have heart, diabetes problems, and we are protecting them. We have the best testing in the world. That is why we have so many medications, because we do more testing than anybody else. Excuse me here i am, right . Biden the bottom line is donald trump is the worst possible president , the worst possible person to try to lead us through this pandemic. Has any idea he what to do, or he just doesnt care. Battle, seven days on. We will see the festivities again today and on through the campaign picking up, no question about that. We are picking up our conversation with Patrick Armstrong, with plurimi wealth. We dovetail around the election, we can dovetail it to stimulus. I look very carefully today at the slope of the fiveyear, fiveyear breakevens. The guesstimate out five years of what inflation will look like five years on from there, and it is amazing the inflation distinction, the upward vector of the United States versus everyone else. How do you play that discrete separation, inflation guesstimates in the u. S. , disinflation guesstimates everywhere else . U. K. Being thehe other notable exception, we have high inflation in this country as well. For me, im surprised gold has not been rallying over the last month. Tod got up to 2000, fell off 1900. I think that is your natural inflation hedge, and if we do see inflation coming into the system, we will see a massive amount of people wanting to hedge inflation. There will be a significant amount of demand for gold as well. Treasuries as well, to traditional traders, which is in the negative real yield. That is a hedge from outside moves. Tom first time im looking at it today at. 93 . Low, never dave. 01. Could we go to an ever larger negative on an adjusted yield . Patrick i think eventually the fed will engineer the beginnings of inflation, and if you do see the 10 year yield start to move higher, which naturally it should, i think that is the point the fed changed its strategy, talking more aggressively about how we might move into to implementing that. That is the recipe of how you get very high negative real yields, very low negative real yields, i suppose would be the way to put it. Francine where do you see inflation first . Would we be importing inflation from china, or would that be homegrown . Friedman said, it is always a monetary phenomenon. M2 growth is running at 24 over the last year. The money supply, the velocity is very low. Unlock themething to velocity of money supply. You need the fiscal stimulus to take over from the monetary stimulus. Qe is creating asset price inflation. Money,s so much liquidity is abundant. In the hands of people buying assets. You have to get money in the hands of people who buy goods, and with a weaker dollar yield, you will start to see some inflation eventually. ,rancine what is eventually like 18 months, 24 . Could it be longer . Deflation is overwhelming anything on the side of the monetary things. Target,ed meets its 2 i think in the next 12 to 18 months, i dont see any meaningful inflation anywhere near the feds target. By the time to get out to two years, the fiveyear, inflation i think is the net result of the policies and debt being put in place. Francine thank you so much, Patrick Armstrong, chief investor at plurimi wealth. He stays with us, and we will talk about the german bunds and some of the things we are seeing on fixed income in europe. Coming, jeff currie, goldman sachs, global head of commodities research. That is 10 30 a. M. In new york, 2 30 p. M. In london. Seven days away from the u. S. Election, this is bloomberg. Facebook, google, twitter, and tiktok are bracing for a night of election chaos. The worry is that once polls close november 3, the results will be delayed or unclear, providing the opportunity for the spread of incomplete or inaccurate information online, even from the candidates themselves. Facebook may have the biggest job. Ceo Mark Zuckerberg told axios in september he is even worried about potential violence. Risk there is a heightened of civil unrest in the period between voting and a result being called or after that. Stop candidates themselves from promoting misleading or false claims. Posts thatll remove it equates to voter intimidation. Be directed to trusted verified sources with information. And it has already banned new campaign ads dodging a week before election day. Twitter will do something similar for its 36 million u. S. Users, with an election hub, like facebook, may remove all election posts that say the results were rigged. On youtube, the company bends videos that are doctored come inside violence, or mislead incite violence, or mislead viewers about voting. The company has not said how it will treat claims about Election Results from candidates. Launched anktok has inapp guide to connect arrogance with connect americans with trusted sources information, and it is not accept paid political ads. Some of the companys have already come under fire for the way they combat misinformation. The ceos of facebook and twitter with hundreds of millions of americans on social media, the Company Faces a race against time to act on posts that could spread fulls information. For example, in President Trump tweeted october 6 that covid19 was no worse than the flu, it was shared more than 43,000 times. It was put behind a warning label. By the Time Companies act, the damage may have overly been done. Ed ludlow, bloomberg news, san francisco. Tom Edward Ludlow with a very important report. Our best and brightest on Supreme Court, greg restore out with an article this morning. Gregorygory store store out with an article this money. Can they do the voting, and if they get the ballot out after the election, candid be counted . The Supreme Court said it cannot. It was a 53 decision. The point here emma for international audience, is the battle over when a mailin statebystate warfare. That is the key message. Clearly the report the Supreme Court sides with the republicans. Francine it is amazing that you still have these state laws, just like if the election were to be contested, it is up to each state law to come in place. 65 Million People have already cast a vote, which i think is a record that we have had so far, tom. Tom no question that we burst through that. There are really good charts showing the percentage dynamics seven days from the election. Ed ludlows good work, the social media debate is front and center as well. What is important is it seems each social media is different. In its interpretation. Francine of course, but also because it reaches a different audience. It is up to each social media given the amount of scrutiny, who they reach and how they influence. Lets get straight to the data. I dont know if you want to take it or if i should start. Basically we just had quite a lot of earnings, and if you look at the industry, it is an industry by industry look. Some at hsbc, that are than expected. Others not so well. We are seeing fluctuation on u. S. Futures, european stocks down, also looking at crude oil a little bit higher. Treasuries and european bunds steady. Tom was focused on turkish lira. We will get to that in a second. Tom 8. 16 on the wreck, dramatically weaker in the last few days. Coming up come on cap gemini. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Tom, shares of are rising as the firm reports thirdquarter revenue that beat estimates. Following disappointing results from sap. Joining us from paris, the chief financial , thank you for joining us. I want to get onto your earnings in a second. First, is there fallout from what we heard from sap that would impact . Yesterday was pretty ugly for stocks in your industry. Were quite surprised about the devolution of our own stock prices. Dependency on sap implementation projects this quite slow, it is a single digit number in terms of weight in renews. When we look at our site, the traction is there for now. As you know, one of the attractions for growth for us is cloud, digital and cloud. In termsee on our side of revenues. Francine what did you learn from the selloff yesterday . Linked, or does it have something to do with investors . The was appropriate. If you look at our results, q3 results were solid. We achieved 4 million euro revenue, an 18 growth. Of organic evolution, it is a very contained and limited decline of frequencies, 7. 7 netares to a recovery. A clear recovery in q3 slightly above what we expected. And across all dimensions. And business lines. That is important to us. To you. D morning i am fascinated with the cloud is in the servitude of Revenue Growth is in the cloud five years on. In United States, we have a train wreck known as International Business machines. Into twoattering apart pieces, trying to adapt to this world. Amazon and microsoft keep going on and on. What is going to be your value adds to sustain that high doubledigit Revenue Growth . Is a matter of fact, cloud is important element. When we said digital and cloud is the core element of our almost 10 , quarter quite significant. Cloud is an important complement. If you look at the traction of the business, we have three main up by 15 . Have gone the traction is there. , theove to Cloud Transformation of our clients environments from legacy to cloud is strong traction. Francine what happens in 2021 . There are a number of uncertainties including lockdowns, how we work going forward, but what is your central expectation for the first half of next year . Everybody, we need to be cautious given the context. We see the group coming back to organic growths somewhere into next year. Ambitions for 2021, of course, the recovery and the slope of recovery will be different when it comes to some sectors, some geographies that all in all, because we are diversifying it all dimensions, sectors and business line, we are confident to come back to growth next year. Francine thank you so much. Carole ferrand, chief financial at capgemini. We had a number of earnings that beat us, and others that did less well. Lets get to the first world news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika a big win for President Trump. The Senate Confirmation of amy Coney Barrett to be the newest justice on the Supreme Court, that solidifies a sixthree conservative majority. They may be asked to weigh in on cases that could determine t