The cigarette issue here is the dynamics of the polls. I will be honest, im confused. I have people saying it has gone better for Joh Joe Biden in the last 1218 hours. Others saying that. Trump has done better in the days. Hree or four jonathan one thing we have not mentioned in the last 60 minutes, and i will mention it right now, tom, nashville. One of us out of the theory has actually played and entertained an audience on guitar and the microphone down in nashville. Tom let me set that up for you. [laughter] belmontthis is university, which is a Christian School but has been dis affiliated a little bit from this history points. It is a spectacular Music Program that the two candidates defend on. What is important is not so much the distance to auditorium, the distance to the grand ole opry outside nashville, or even to the acclaimed bluenose cafe. It is two blocks from the pancake pantry. And that is all that matters. Jonathan that was the perfect what do you call it, sa gooey [laughter] [laughter] the data command lisa, 90 minutes away. Jobless claims will be a big focus. Lisa yes, but before we get to that, if you would like tom keene took him to set with a guitar to prove his experience in nashville. Jonathan i have been asking forever. Lisa on twitter, sent him a love note and maybe we can make it happen. [laughter] lets look at the data. 8 30 a. M. , we will be getting jobless claims. The expectation is deceleration in the recovery. We expect the number of total filings to come down slightly from last week but still at an incredibly high level and there which stimulus. Stions about 9 00 a. M. , the Senate Judiciary committee is voting on a timeframe for confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. What they are not talking about getting done before the election, or at least seems to be lacking conviction is getting a support bill through congress. 9 00 p. M. , there will be a debate, the final u. S. President ial debate. And we will be talking all about tomorrow. Utton jonathan we will, and i will be using it repeatedly, i am sure. [laughter] tom, at least a mention Supreme Court confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett. That is where the focus has been in the senate. You get a feeling that the blame game is starting between the administration and speaker pelosi. Tom no question about that. We will see where the stimulus goes. Wendy schiller of brown university, was absolutely brilliant yesterday when talking about how beleaguered republicans are playing to a tough primary season two years hence. There is a lot of crosscurrents away from just the simplicity of the moment. Jonathan lets put the moment into the price section of the moment. Thursday morning. Equity futures are down 7 on the s p. 0. 2 on the bond market. Point,are down one basis 0. 81 . Foreign exchange, turn it all around again. Dollar weakness eurodollar is down 1. 18. What is the story of the morning so far . A bit of risk aversion with the dollar strength, the bond market bid, and equities a little heavy down. Tom i would go i with that. Gold is also off, just under 1900. It is in the middle. Maybe claims here. There is an adjustment here, either good or bad. Jonathan Blackrock Investment global chief investment strategist is mike pyle. Fantastic to catch up with you, sir. Do you trade on the debate or off the back of it . How do you go through this comment like . What is the things we have been saying throughout the election season is how stable the polls have been even in the face of Historic Events of 2020 the United States. As it relates to your question, yes. Insofar as it is the last big event before the election, it could matter. But our basic thesis is that the stable. Tinues to look our advice to investors is to look through any volatility the recent generates. Look to the longterm and fundamentals. On you were weaned blanchflower economics at dartmouth college. Not only what he has done but others in dartmouth. How divided is a nation now, and what does it mean for investors . Mike the nation does look divided across a couple of points. Political parlays vision is at historic highs. When we talk about economics and markets, we talk a lot about the kshaped nature of the recovery and the degree to which, even an aggregate of the economy has a much different experience for people in different parts of the economy. That is why as we look ahead, the question of fiscal stimulus, the question of is there recovery going to become more sustained or will it be a part of the narrative as we go into 2021. Lisa people are believing in higher and longerterm yields based on the idea that we will get some stimulus bill. How high can 10year yields rise before the fed steps in . Mike we think this is a huge issue. I would say our view on it is that perhaps i think we heard from governor brainerd yesterday that the fed intense to act a long intends to act along the entire yield curve. We see that as a sign of a long recovery. The fed will be closely watching the nominal curve and not allowing a tremendous amount of steepening. To us, the more compelling reflation dynamic is to expect to see the nominal curve stay more stable. But real rates tipped to rally. Even more negative. That has important implications to the dollar, to risk assets globally. That is a really important dynamic here. Jonathan mike, that makes it profoundly difficult for financials, and makes it even easier to stick with what is working right now. What do you say to the people talking up the rotation in the equity market in america . Mike i would say two things. We have been talking about a type of rotation in the market of growth to value and more large to small. We think the growth dynamics that are reflationary can bring about that type of rotation. In the world, we see real rates lower when we see the path of the dollar potentially lower as well. That is also a pretty attractive world for equities outside the United States. Risk assets outside of the United States, including in places like emerging markets. Lisa i am looking at the low of negative real yields for treasuries, in other words the amount of money you are losing to invest in longterm treasuries. 11 percent inrd 0. September. How low could this go . Mike i think the important point is that if you look at places that have combined a significant ongoing monetary accommodation plus fiscal policy, the place where that has manifested itself in is in real rates. In japan and other places that have brought this combination to bear. That is what we see in the pressure from those two forces coming together. And policy relief manifesting policy manifesting itself in markets. Jonathan mike pyle joining us from the Blackrock Investment institute. Mike, if we have negative real rates that go even more negative, how do you plug that in into the rest of the market . How does that shape your view over the next few years . Tom it changes everything. I thought peter was brilliant this morning from rbc capital markets, laying out the Money Market Fund it impact. He made a huge divergence between the u. S. It would be clobbered by negative Interest Rates. Versus the united kingdom, that could possibly withstand it. To be clear, he predicts negative Interest Rates for britain. Jonathan wasnt that a description of your curve control that we just got from mike pyle, your favorite topic, tom . Governor brainard has talked about it. The cleveland fed has talked about it, that they will go further out along the curb and just sit on it. Tom is it an outcome or is it a policy . I think that is a fascinating question right now. Do you get yield curve control after policy or nonpolicy, order you affect yield curve control and then get the policy and get the market reaction, modest debate. Jonathan lisa, that debate is happening right now. Some people think it is already here. Lisa for example, the fed Balance Sheet. I always watch for it at 4 30 p. M. On thursdays. Last week it rose the most since may. You can see, not necessarily coming in size to the degree of choking up all the extra treasuries, yet there still is a bid. What is the longterm implication for investors . Can you be bearish on the economy and bullish on equities and on credit simply because of the amount of liquidity in these assets, because you are ed to goy getting fin into anything else . And what does that do to the economy and productivity . This is what i am struggling with right now. Jonathan lisa abramovitz. 4 30 p. M. On thursdays. [laughter] tom keene, we know what the bears do on 4 30 p. M. On thursdays. Tom they do. [laughter] lisa hold on a second. I represent all bears right now . [laughter] jon i think that is what all bears do at 4 30 p. M. On a thursday. Lisa that is my life. Really exciting. Jonathan it is up to 4 30 p. M. On thursdays with Lisa Abramowicz. [laughter] we know what lisa will be doing. Looking at the fed Balance Sheet. Coming up, robert tipp, chief investment strategist. All eyes are on the capital, washington, d. C. This is bloomberg. Bloomberg. With the first word news, i am ritika good step. The second and final debate is tonight in nashville, one of the final highprofile chances for President Trump to change the narrative of the campaign. Polls show him losing to joe biden. Debate rules have changed. A candidates microphone will be muted at times when the other candidate is speaking. The president has complained it is unfair. He said the same thing about the topics and the moderator, nbcs kristen walker. Democrats on the Senate JudiciaryCommittee Plan to show their unhappiness with the nominee Amy Coney Barrett they. Will boycott todays vote to advance her nomination to the full senate. Republicans have a majority on the panel,s on the move will not prevent the nomination from moving ahead. Sunak has. , rishi unveiled another bailout for businesses hurt by the pandemic. The latest package is aimed at bars and restaurants struggling under the lockdown. The u. K. Also raised job aid, cutting employers contributions. It was a fifth straight quarter of profits for tesla. The electric carmaker easily beat wall street estimates and the company says it is on track to deliver 500,000 cars this year. This could add momentum for has less inclusion into the s p 500 index. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika good to. Iambic a group to. This is bloomberg i am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. That some confirmed Voter Registration information has been obtained by iran and separately by russia. Be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to registered voters. Jonathan that was John Ratcliffe, director of National Intelligence yesterday evening, going into the final debate this evening and nashville. Here is the price action a couple of hours away from the opening bell. We are negative on the s p 500, down six. On the fx market, eurodollar is at 1. 1827. Risk aversion feeding into the bond market. Year. On the 10 jon, what do you see on the data coming out of jobless claims . Jonathan whether we will continue to lose the momentum. We have seen it stall in jobless claims and i think there is a worry that going into the winter, just as the case got starts to pick up in the United States of america, whether we locked down, shut down, the Street Movement or whatever in the United States, it could lead consumers to disengage and for companies to lose confidence. That is not what you want at this stage of the recovery. Tom no question about that. I will be looking at the revisions on claims. If you are brad paisley, the country giant, you would wonder as a student at belmont university, where he was the best guitar player on the planet, down to the pancake pantry. When of the great morning moments. Kevin cirilli will be there after this discussion to get the blanket, 1. 03 more than the standard fare. If these two candidates were to shake hands outside the pancake pantry, how would they both be greeted today . Kevin this is a deeply conservative state, and honestly i think it is indicative of the why leaderson mcconnell is reluctant to pass a stimulus plan. At the center, geopolitics and some bubbling over issues carrying us into tonights debate. First and foremost, director of National IntelligenceJohn Ratcliffe hastily put together a press conference yesterday ahead of news reports that iran and russia have hacked into Voter Registrations. This is no doubt i am told by the Biden Campaign go ahead. Tom the news flow is extraordinary. As you know in the papers today, the president is upset at his attorney general, at his fbi director. Is he going to translate that into a discussion of foreign policy, and frankly his success in the middle east, or is is this going to be the hunter biden debate. Kevin i think it will be a both. Bit of an opportunity for the president to discuss his success with Jared Kushner and their geopolitical advancements in the middle east, but i also think you will see the president try to raise new questions against joe biden as it relates to his familys relationship with the ukraine. This is a polarizing time to put it mildly, and a tale of two geopolitical narratives. Sense, thisgterm is an opportunity for republicans to raise questions about the Democratic Party and arguably the standardbearer of , for the short term, the relationship with russia and china. For the democrats, look for joe biden to say that the Trump Administration has not done enough to protect the integrity of u. S. Elections from foreign actors. Jonathan is easy to forget given what has happened in the last month how much of the polls have moved since the last debate. If you look at the recent polls, the quinnipiac poll has texas tied, and the president with a fivepoint lead a month ago. Iowa is almost a tie according to the latest Monmouth University all. In september that was a six point lead for the president. What happened since then. Tomhe lost ground even more so with suburban females and seniors. What can he say to those two groups of individuals in america tonight. Things. Hree first and foremost, the expectations are so low that he has a much lower bar to clear over nominee biden. Secondly as it relates to the incredibly; incredibly close polls that you ,eferenced in texas and iowa senator joni ernst has a gap, it on a point to widen mark richt feel emboldened that they are on the cusp of a blue wave democrats feel emboldened that they are on the cusp of a blue wave. Yesterday i talked with the Democratic National committee chairman. I asked him, what keeps you up night . He said, florida, wisconsin, and michiganp they remember in 2016 feeling like they were on the cusp of another victoryp when have 40 million americans that have already cast their ballots, that never happened before. So it is difficult to predict 40 million are or precisely who they have voted for. Lisa on a practical note, one of the particles being adapted tonight to protect the candidates, particularly joe biden since he has not had the virus. Will masks be mandatory; precisely. Kevin masks are mandatory. Rapid testing. Both candidates have said that they have had regular testing and they have been the Biden Campaign has been putting out press releases virtually aroundtheclock, as their test results have come. The president for his part says he gets regularly tested. You remember Vice President ial nominee Kamala Harriss two staffers had been diagnosed with covid19. She said she was not in contact with them and has put out a statement that she has tested negative for covid19. Jonathan just before we let you go, a final question on covid19. The first lady, how is she doing, and will she be there this evening . Kevin First Lady Melania Trump is said to have a lingering cough, according to a statement from her office. There has been some questions and reports recently surfaced about whether or not she will attend any political rallies. She was set to introduce President Trump at a pennsylvania rally earlier this week. Due to that lingering cough, her wide says, out of the range offer cautions, she set that one out. We will see if we will see the first lady. Jonathan kevin, thank you. Always great to catch up. And enjoy your pancakes. Tom pecan pancakes. Lisa that can . [laughter] jonathan have you not heard that before . Butter and syrup or just syrup, tom . Tom it depends. If you are from the northeast, just syrup. There are notable people, probably including kevin cirilli, who do all of that. Jonathan do you know what confuses me with americans, bacon. Why the bacon . Tom we have bacon and we also have pigs in a blanket where you have sausage in as well. [laughter] in a full english, what are those things sitting on the edge of the plate next to the tomatoes. Jonathan the black of the putting . Tom. Blood, the kind of thing you dont want to think about in the morning. [laughter] lisa you questioned bacon, though, jon. Jonathan i still do on pancakes. [laughter] pancakes. [laughter] jonathan from london and new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene Lisa Abramowicz, i am