In placen, and the fog on fiscal stimulus. It has crept up on us after the dueling debates of last week, but there it is on thursday in nashville, with a mute button. It will be interesting. Jonathan we know this campaign is unhappy, not with the mute button, but with the topics. They want this debate to be about Foreign Policy. I imagine the president wants that to be about Foreign Policy, and he will do his best to make it just about that. Tom he will do that. You wonder if it will be the uproar over the bidens in the out york post article front of our giuliani interview the other day, but help me here, lisa. This is really important. Does Foreign Policy matter in a president ial election . I am not sure it does. Lisa i would argue in this case it does, not so much with russia, but with china. We have seen an increasing amount of betting on the chinese economy, not because they have handled the virus arguably better than we have come about because they believe joe biden will be a little bit looser when it comes to policy. I think we still have to keep watching the data, though. Jonathan lets talk about the data. Numbers out of Procter Gamble right now, boosting your on your revenue to 4 to 5 positive. We cut companies out there still doing well, and parts of this economy still on fire. Lisa one of those big areas has been housing. We are getting Housing Starts and Building Permits for the month of september at 8 30 a. M. We might see a bit of a cooling as a result of the wildfires. I do knew that at the home of the keanes, they will be taking a new mortgage. Tom this is really important at Procter Gamble. Theyve got a next pop here with the length of the pandemic. I think that is endemic of what is happening not in tech. Jonathan i got really worried for a moment and thought a dog might be sent my way, when you said he was moving out. [laughter] view. Ifting their lisa it will be interesting to see whether they stayathome trade, the fact that everybody and their mother has a netflix account, the idea of how much that has continued with momentum with their stock. It is another day in the markets, so we are going to be talking about fiscal support debates, and this is the deadline later today, the new deadline. Jonathan is it . Lisa thats for you to decide. Jonathan is . . It a deadline is it a deadline . Lisa if they dont get anything done today, what are the changes they get anything done before the election . What if they agree on a bill and then Mitch Mcconnell doesnt sign off on it or push it through . There is still plenty of uncertainty. Jonathan i agree. I thought the deadline was the end of july, but that came and went very quickly. Equities doing nicely. Equity futures near session highs, up 27. We advance 0. 8 . I think theres a story here that is remarkable. What is happening in europe right now, lockdowns, restrictions across the u. K. Come across the continent. France, italy, spain. The euro still retaining a 1. 18 handle going into some data which hasnt even looked good before all of this. It is just something to look out for. In the bond market, zero. 70 on the 10 year yield, even with all market,alk the bond 8 on the 10 year yield, even with all of that talk. Joining us now, Amy Wu Silverman, Rbc Capital Markets equity derivative strategist. Then testers get you with us on the program fantastic to get you with us on the program. Volatility was so elevated a few weeks ago. Then we faded. Then we came back a little bit more. What is the approach now . Amy it has been fascinating to watch because the last time we spoke, the Options Market was clearly pricing a contested and protracted election with uncertainty very high in december. That has completely gone away now, and the Options Market is pricing the fairly boring term structure, which makes me a little bit nervous, which two weeks to go until way pretty major event happening. At this point, i think we are probably underpricing the likelihood that you get that protracted contested election, and also pricing a tail event, which is that trump actually wins the election. Obviously the polls say those are less likely, but those have fatter in 2020 then another years. Tom we had the great technician on with strategas, and he was really talking about the breadth of this market improving. Do you see that on a fundamental basis . Amy i do. In august, we had unbelievably narrow breadth. It was really just all tech. Wo things changed the first is people just started putting more macro hedges simply because we have a u. S. Election, but also because we are coming into yearend. The second is as we head into the earnings season, people are , obviously still playing facebook and amazon, what have you, but they are playing other names. So we do have improvement in breadth, which helps with some of the claims we are seeing on the index level. Lisa you said we are currently probably underpricing the risk of a contested election. Thathow contested does election have to be before it royals the market before it roils the market, and how significant was the salafi . With the selloff be . Is novembereframe 20 through december 18, the time between the two auctions expert reese. We saw that three to four volatility point fully elevated relative to everything else, and now that has come down. That tells us people are not focused on that date where the state electors are supposed to set their ballots. Downside, the bets we are seeing placed has the to 10 ,own at least 5 but those are the hedges we see in the market right now. Jonathan for a lot of people outside of wall street, whenever the Amy Wu Silvermans, the duly and emmanuels the julian , you know theon story. Can you advise people outside of that world what they are meant to do going into the back half of this year . Amy i think it is just to think of it this way. Downside concern that his building, and we see that in hedges being placed, but not nearly to the extent that we would expect given this is are meant and this event. Asically, the market is not wellprepared as it normally is for these kind of downside events. The second is if you are looking to place a bet to the downside yourself, buying put options, where you are protecting against that downside, it is still relatively inexpensive because the Options Market prices for that type of production has declined and made it cheaper to do that. Tom if i look at soap, procter withine is a proxy multinationals for 10 years. Like a moonshot, png goes p g goes straight up. Is that in the textbooks you studied . [laughter] amy look, a lot of things that have happened in this market are not in the textbooks i studied. He tell us about the efficient market hypothesis, and i got into wall street and said, the markets arent that efficient unfortunately. [laughter] tom this is a really important observation. About where forget these valuations are. Some have maximum Revenue Growth or may be outward profitability, but boring stuff, whether in london or america, is just priced to perfection. We have never seen this. Jonathan theres a reason for that with some of these brands. It was always about the brands you recognize. Everyone just ran towards them in the pandemic area talking with the pepsico ceo a number of months ago about this. That was the story, gravitation towards the brands they recognize at a time of stress. How sticky that demand is i think we are about to find out. Lisa and i find it fascinating, a social study in terms of how people respond to ape endemic. Fire,sales absolutely on and the company that makes them, it is sort of a similar story to what we saw was Procter Gamble , up more than 22 . People want clean homes, and they are going to be obsessed about it. Jonathan Amy Wu Silverman of. Bc, thanks for being with us can you imagine tom cleaning the apartment . Lisa no, i cannot imagine him cleaning. Ive seen him do the dishes before. Jonathan and gardening. Ive heard someone doing the dishes when we were doing radio from home. Tom what is so sad about that, that was after two sets of doors. They left the doors open, jon. Im sorry. Jonathan cafe keene. Those were some dark days during the pandemic. Lisa i miss it. Jonathan i dont miss it at all. Tom i dont miss it at all. And thanks to our tech team are jumping through massive hoops on that remote stuff. Jonathan alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Hoping we dont have to hear someone making, coffee, washing the dishes afterwards. Dog comes in. Bart, bark. [laughter] the circus of several months ago in casa keene. Stiglitz hereeph on bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin are drawing closer to an agreement on a coronavirus release package. The two will talk again today. The deadline is set for a bill that could pass before election day. Senate republicans have been balking at the price tag. President trump and joe biden will be muted at times during thursdays debate. Each candidate will have an uninterrupted two minutes to speak at the beginning of each segment. Then both microphones will be turned on. During the first debate, president repeatedly interrupted biden, and both candidates talked over the moderator. Goldman sachs has reached a longawaited deal with the Justice Department over its role in malaysias 1mdb scandal. Goldman will pay more than 2 billion. That is broadly and nine with analysts reserves and estimates. Meanwhile, goldman will avoid a u. S. Criminal conviction. The price of oil is lower today after opec and allies warned of a precarious outlook for the market. Russias Energy Minister says demand has been hit again by the coronavirus. Add almost 2to Million Barrels a day to the market starting in january, but now that could be delayed. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump dont forget dr. Fauci, what he said is dont close to china. I said no, dr. Fauci. Your wonderful man. I closed it. I saved thousands of lives. En. Harris he was informed that it was contagious and air bound, and what did he do . He stood at rallies and stood before the American People and didnt tell you what he knew. Jonathan President Trump in inzona and Kamala Harris north carolina. Two hours away from the opening bell this tuesday morning. Near session highs on the s p 500. We drift higher. Yields drifting higher 0. 78 on the 10 year. 1. 1811. This from hsbc in the last couple of minutes. We are technically most optimistic on the u. S. And asia in credit and equities, but much less so on europe. That seems to be the story for many people. Tom hsbc with some wonderful calls there. And of course, steve major with the call that west ham would come back against the tots this weekend, which they did. Jonathan did you hear that . He had a nice little dig at you yesterday. Tom he did. He really went at it. Kevin cirilli with us. He has been with us so often, the chief washington correspondent. I want to go narrow right now. The republican from north carolina, mr. Tillis, has really had a backandforth with mr. Trump. He is in a horrific race in north carolina. Does he want the president of the United States to campaign for him, or is trump a liability . Kevin i dont think he knows, and that is a brilliant point. A poll came out that has joe biden leading in the battleground state of north trumps by 2 , 48 to 46 . Coupled with this intense battle , brawl, use whatever adjective you want to use their come up between senator thom tillis against cal cunningham, the democratic challenger. They are in a brawl. Theres a texting scandal with the democrat. It is playing out on the local newspapers. So goes north carolina, that could be a clear indicator of the tightening of this race. We are looking at the National Polls. We got to throw out the National Polls right now. This is about battleground polls. This about a 2 spread in north carolina, a 3 to 4 spread in michigan, and a tightening of the race in wisconsin. Tom as a proxy, do these two candidates want there to president ial candidates on the same podium with them at a social distance . Kevin look, i dont have the reporting. I havent reached out to either campaign. But i think the president , who is going to be appearing likely in south carolina, is sending a clear signal to Senate Judiciary thatman Lindsey Graham this is when the chips are falling where they are. You are either with him or against him. That is baked into both sides of the perception. I want to go even more granular. I want to go to nevada district two. It is a rural district in a battleground state. Democrats are eager to carry nevada. But that is where there is an uptick in covid19 cases. Youve got to remember, new york city, the citiwes the cities got whacked with covid first earlier this year. Now we are seeing in the johns ankins University Data increase throughout the midwest, the south. Battleground areas, but also a big unknown for how voters are going to interpret some of these cases, and how that will impact, if at all, turn out on election day. Tom just so you know, theres more jacket lope more jackelope in the Second District of nevada than there are people. [laughter] jonathan everyplace you name, there is more money, more dollars. It makes me wonder whether the president has enough left in the tank to fight these battles. Kevin that is a great point. I think you have seen this reality, this reassessment in terms of what the top advisors to the president have had him color his campaign trail events with, which is essentially trying to portray himself now as the political outsider to the donor class, who wont be beholden to donors. That is reminiscent of what he did back in 2016. You cant talk about nevada without talking about sheldon adelson, and how he has poured 75 million into this race. I just remember back when everyone, as a political reporter, you would look at the Weather Forecast or the traffic maps for turnout. Now we are all looking at the terminal charge with covid19 cases and upticks in cases for the various districts. Lisa another thing that is happening sooner than the election is this deadline that jon and i were denigrating earlier. Is it even really a deadline . This idea that treasury secretary mnuchin from the middle east and nancy pelosi will have to come to a deal today to get a fiscal support done by the election. What does this really mean, given the fact that Mitch Mcconnell has to get enough support in the senate from republicans to sign off on this . Kevin it is a long shot because it is being presented as a long shot. The second point i would make here is the calculation that Speaker Pelosi is making, should this have to wait until after the election, the political landscape, i cant stress this enough, just how the shifting of Political Capital amongst all of the various players at the negotiating table will look a lot different after the election. We dont know which way. We dont know the spread or whether or not there will be a mandate for either one of the parties. But there will without question be a shifting of Political Capital after the election in terms of these negotiations. Mcconnellis leader even a part of these conversations, or does he just sit them out . I hear your point. Loseeeping his cards c to vest, he is part of the conversation, and that is classic leader mcconnell style. He is a wall, so to speak. You go to texas, you talk to the texas energy community, the texas csuite community, they are very apprehensive as to why all of this money has to be injected into the economy upwards of 2 trillion. They are very wary of that. They are playing a long game. I am not saying it is right or wrong. Ofy are playing a long game after the election, a Republican Party that is going to be looking for which direction to go been. There are reminiscent condors and ties of what happened in 2008 with the tea party. Good to hearin, from you. We keep coming back to the same story. That is the voice that matters, and we havent heard enough of it, leader mcconnell. Media, goes back to the and i think im as guilty of this as anybody who is fixated on the popular vote. This is about the electoral votes in the power of the senate. Right now they are very powerful. He wants to maintain that. Jonathan from london and new york this morning, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , this is bloomberg surveillance. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from london and new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning. Live on bloomberg tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Two hours away from the cash open in new york, futures are up by 0. 7 on the s p 500. Zero firmer, dollar weaker through much of the weekend. In the bond market, yields higher by a single basis point at 0. 7824 . In d. C. Reak down brexit, we wont mention that. We are waiting for the noise to pass. Seema shah of global principal investors ways investors weighs in. Tight. S [laughter] of td bank joins us. Market expectations seem to lean on vacc