This is ferro at his worst. [laughter] his cruelest. Thering mr. Betts into conversation this early, we say good morning on Bloomberg Radio in boston. The red sox, worst in the american league. And we move on from there. 15 days until the election. Schenker earlier, is there going to be a debate thursday night . Is that still up in the air . Jonathan we understand there will be a debate thursday night, but who knows . Thats the problem for this market. My question coming into this week is basically how much of the mediumterm outlook hinges on what happens in the next two weeks. How many of our Market Participants have come on this program and actually believe that . Tom we have two people could talking melt up. Ben laidler at our hudson and Chris Verrone at tower hudson, and Chris Verrone. He is looking at the number of stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average and other smoke and mirrors to really get him a bullish cast. You wonder if it is the markets expecting out into next year. Jonathan he was thinking japan. He was thinking sweden. Tom very international. He listened that she listened. Jonathan i did you listened. Jonathan i did. I just had a little dabble in bloomberg surveillance. Plenty of happy talk thi morning. Tom happy talk you brought up happy talk . You brought up mookie betts. [laughter] if jeromeill find out powell is happy or not. The focus of the discussion is Digital Currencies and crossborder payments. Of course, people looking for any guidance he may give in terms of whether the fed could ease again and what the parameters are. , Christine Lagarde is speaking at an ecb conference, talking about pairing science of being a central banker with the practice of it. People also looking for further easing measures that could come from the ecb. An treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is visiting the middle east. No one cares. What people care about is that he is not in washington, d. C. , despite the fact that nancy pelosi has a new deadline of tuesday to get some sort of agreement on a new fiscal support deal in order to get something done before the election. Markets are moving on this. If it is a good headline, they will move. If it is a bad headline, they will move. In the story gets played on repeat over and over again, and here we are. Happy monday. Jonathan so long as they are talking, i guess that is bullish. Heres the wikipedia entry. Betts, an american professional baseball field or for the l. A. Dodgers. He previously played for the boston red sox. No idea what happened there. Tom tom its that kind of weekend. Me,e ferro is trash in on you had a better weekend apparently, but it wasnt worse than me. Shopping. I begin christmas shopping. About englisheans football until i ran into young ferro. Its a 90 minute game, and i guess the tots mailed it in. Hat in gods name is 90 plus four . This is like the times of the west hymns. Minute, end in the 90th they added on four of stoppage time. Tom did you see how he kicked from farther out . Jonathan i know you might bring that up. I know. I know. Tom lisa, do you want to chime in here . Lisa not really. [laughter] jonathan i know what lisa is thinking. Lets get to the markets. Lets do that. Squeezing out a third week of gains on the s p 500 last week. Equity futures this morning, they are talking. More talking. We are up 0. 9 on the s p 500. In the fx market, euro firmer. No idea why. Weaker dollar story in the mix. We can talk about the data out of china. That recovery in the second largest economy is really impressive. Tom what you do is compare and contrast. It is really important to take that statistic and compare it to the negative statistics you are seeing in somewhat of the world on a relative basis. Look at what renminbi does, down to 6. 68. Jonathan recovery in china, moaned him in the United States momentum in the United States. Lost momentum, perhaps, in europe. Tom what did you do this weekend . I had a great weekend. Jonathan i was just thinking yesterday evening, after watching that game, what can i do at 7 00 eastern when i open the show . The markets, stimulus talks. Tom election, jon. Theres a debate. Jonathan 15 days away, there is. Tom janet yellen the end 00 our. Jonathan looking forward at the 8 00 hour. Jonathan looking forward to that. Tots . Ow about those jonathan she will of that. Were joined now by seema shah, principal global investors. First question to you, i asked it at the top of the hour, how much hinges on the next two weeks as you put together your 2021 calls . Seema not that much. We seen it time and time again. If you look at all of the ,lection years through time volatility tends to ebb away. At the end of all of this, markets passed through the noise. The markets just go back to what really drives them, which is going to be the pandemic and Central Banks. And a little bit of fiscal stimulus, if we see that. Those are the key drivers. It is not really what happens in the next three or four weeks. Tom weve been doing a lot on equity. Tell me what is tradable in fixed income. Where is the opportunity in yield . Seema it is a tough question at the moment. We still like investment grade, but of course, we are reducing some of our allocation. We actually like preferred securities. You get a bit of a pickup. It is still a relatively safe area. Of course, was in high yield, you have to be in the better part of that spectrum because the economic recovery, theres a lot of potholes ahead, and its going to be those riskier companies that youre going to see that playing out in. So you have to be careful. Lisa when we look at equities come of story really has been do you buy into the rotation, the cyclical story rather than just big tech. Where you stand on that . Aema we have maintained pretty significant positioning to big tech through all of this. We still really like that sector. As long as youve got the ongoing pandemic, continued concentration of working from home in reliance on technology, it still plays out. If youve got economic backdrop, which is a little bit risky like right now, then you just need companies with strong Balance Sheets and positive cash flow. You are getting that from big tech. We know that Central Banks are not moving anytime soon. Having said that, there are hurdles ahead. We have to think about regulation. We have to think about the fact that they have to meet really higher earnings expectations. Through all of that, i dont want to say we havent got any exposure to cyclicals because i think this is the time to start thinking about adding a bit more exposure. If we have a continued recovery, cyclicals should do better next year. Jonathan a recovery where . When you look at things right now, momentum in the United States, the really good recovery emerging in china and nothing of the sort in europe. Where do you want that cyclical exposure . Seema a little bit in the u. S. I agree, europe is a perennial disappointment. Every time with think it can come through, Something Else comes along. Certainly right now, it is not an area which is particularly attractive. Anything which has got any kind of close relationship with china , and even the new sectors of technology there, really should do well. I think that is where that cyclical exposure can come from. , smallcap, cap theres an opportunity to raise your exposure. Jonathan seema shah of principal global investors, thank you. Ahead of a q. Week as we count you down to ahead of a key week as we count you down to the general election 15 days away. 0. 9 . S p 500, we are up up 10 basis points on the 30 year yield this morning. Tom this really bears watching into tuesday and wednesday. Not so much today. 80 we break out with nasdaq 100 up a solid presenter so. Backandforth, or can we put on two or three days of this kind of excellence in a row . That jury is out. Jonathan does the happy talk in d. C. Actually turn into real policymaking . Because that has been absent the last several months. Lisa i just wonder how many times can we get a head fake. It is like lucy and the football, and charlie. It is like a cartoon. We see this again and again. Why would anything get done now . Theres still a lot of distance, including between both sides of the republican party. Who trades on these headlines . Jonathan thats the point, theres three sides to this right now. The administration, house democrats, and senate leadership. Theres been the idea that they can lean on leader mcconnell to get this through the senate. Tom no evidence whatsoever. Jonathan i havent seen it either. Tom youve got to wait to get down a number of paragraphs before the senator from kentucky shows up. I just had a frightening idea. I wonder if jon knows who lucy is, and the fact that Charlie Brown looked a little bit like me. [laughter] lisa i never even thought of that. Jonathan ive got that. I can to give the cartoon. Tom youve got that . Jonathan have i told you about my friend mookie . Good friend of mine. Tom oh god. [laughter] jonathan the bars are shutting qamar and say . Maybe that is are shutting, arent they . Maybe that is the frustration. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has set a deadline if President Trump wants a preelection stimulus plan. She says there has to be more progress on a deal by tomorrow. The president has said he is willing to go higher than the 1. 8 trillion his team has been trying to offer, but Senate Republicans enough go along with something that large. I recovery from dependent continued in the third quarter. Ago,ose 4. 9 from a year less than expected, but higher than the Second Quarter number. And while, chinas retail sales through 3. 3 in september and Industrial Production was up almost 7 . The number of coronavirus cases around the world has now hit 40 million. Infections have been picking up in europe and the u. S. Midwest. It took six months to reach the first 10 million cases. The last 10 million were added in just 32 days. Brazilnd yet, and account for more than half of the cases. Bloomberg has learned british officials are prepared to water down from minister Boris Johnsons lawbreaking brexit legislation. That move could revive failing talks with the european union. Rewrites parts of the deal he struck with the eu last year. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Rep. Pelosi are we going with it or not, and what is the language . Im optimistic. Jonathan it is a market long on optimism. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking on abc this week. Tomorrow, 12 30 eastern, speaking on bloomberg tv and radio with david westin. A conversation you do not want to miss. Heres the price action this monday morning. Squeezing out a third week of gains on the s p 500, and we add some weight to it this morning. We advanced 0. 8 . In the bond market, yield market up yield up. 1. 1767ancing, overnight. Encouraging. Where encouraging Economic Data out of china. The president in penciling it tomorrow, and thursday a debate with joe biden. Tom it is going to be interesting. Lets get right to it. There is so much to talk about. Kevin cirilli joining us, chief washington correspondent. We welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio and television. Tottenhampless in this weekend. They looked like the new york jets the back half of the game. I went through and looked at all the different polls, led by survey monkey. Youve got to be kidding me. To the polls have any veracity right now to pros like you . Kevin yes. Atul state battleground state polls came out this weekend that showed President Trump within the margin of error in states like michigan and wisconsin. The campaignme of stops hes made in recent days, including georgia, for critics of the president s administration, they would argue het these are states that really should have had shored up at this point in the race. However, that goes against the reporting i am hearing, which is that he is going to these conservative areas to run up the margins in conservative districts in order to remind rural voters that they better show up and vote on november 3. The only way that President Trump gets reelected is if deeply conservative districts amplify their turnout and have a wider margin of victory. That is the task. Tom is there any evidence that those deeply conservative districts, the people that made this guy win four years ago, are they voting by mail . Are they voting by carrier pigeon . Or are they going to show up in the line at 10 00 a. M. . Kevin the latter. Based upon the mailin ballot polling and where the breakdown lies, republicans are more likely to vote in line at polls and to show up on election day, and democrats are more likely to cast a ballot and mail in ahead of time. That is why, quite frankly, the Media Networks and whatnot are bracing for a long several days following the november 3 elections in terms of the count. Jonathan what i hear from you is the president doubling down on the existing strategy. No changes with two weeks to go. With that be right . Kevin that is absolutely correct. And to be frank with you, there is this hunker down mentality that often exists in businesses when businesses are facing scrutiny on capitol hill from lawmakers. Reelectionresidents campaign that feels that they have been there before, that theyve had the back up against the wall before, and they are ready to bulldoze through. This weeks president ial debate is incredibly important. I was struck by seeing a line the president added to his Campaign Speeches over the weekend, which is he is now positioning himself as a donor underdog, using the same line of attack he drew against hillary thaton in 2016, which is he will not be beholden to donors, in contrast to joe biden. I would note the Biden Campaign making very strategic inroads in suburbs and trying to urge the same type of turnout, trying to dangle that political caret two suburban Republican Voters who might not mail in a ballot political carrot to suburban Republican Voters who might not mail in a ballot. Lisa theres a question about republican unity, especially as another round of fiscal support talks continues. Senator john cornyn of texas comparing President Trump to entering a relationship with a spouse, trying to change them, and failing. How big is the divide right now between republicans . Yes, really. Kevin i think it is a massive divide. Based upon my reporting, Speaker Pelosi is calling for their to be some type of deal within the next 24 hours in terms of a vote. The democrats in the house still pushing for 2. 2 trillion. President trump has said he wants something bigger than that , and leader mcconnell still around 500 billion. Tom is Speaker PelosiVice President bidens friend on the stimulus debate . Or if they do a deal, isnt it a major win for the president . , and it will be no doubt spun as such. You can play it all different question. Ides without tom ok. Lisa, you lost my change of thought there. Changing the spouse, what was that about . [laughter] lisa i knew that would get you. Kevin im not taking the bait. Lisa john cornyn of texas came out and said the relationship with trump are like women who get married and think they are going to change their spouse and dont. Tom no way. Im shocked [laughter] oh my god. Lisa it doesnt ring true to you . We can go there. Jonathan you want to go there . Go on. I will leave you to it. Lisa is asking tom whether youve got any experience. Tom daily. Daily. A step back,king the reason why i brought this up. Jonathan please stick a large step back please take a large step back. Lisa the reason being there this confidence that leader mcconnell can get some sort of andulus agreement passed, yet there is a huge divide that seems to be widening. This is going to make it difficult for pelosi to get some things through, and frankly, for President Trump get something through. Jonathan we got about a minute left. Youve got a bit more rope if you want it. Lisa and you can use it to hang yourself. [laughter] im out. You can talk about relationships now. Jonathan i am going to thank kevin cirilli, bloomberg washington correspondent. No one wants my thoughts on that right now. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres your price action. Shaping up as follows. Im not going to change. [laughter] equity futures up 28, up 0. 8 . 0. 4 , 1. 1767. Europe is looking really tough right now. Tom can you look at different stocks . [laughter] jonathan thicker tie . Tom can you wear a thicker tie . No, you cant wear no tie, and change the socks. Polkadots . Jonathan from new york and london, this is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Ofathan it is the morning monday, october 19. Election tomorrow, and in the United States of america. Two hours away from the opening bell, equity futures drifting higher. More happy talk around a fiscal stimulus deal. No idea if we actually get a deal. Tom says yes. Lisa is laughing. Eurodollarxchange, 1. 1768. Pmis at the end of the week, key data point for the continent. In the bond market, yields higher by three basis poi