Fastest pace in three months. I think probably the fed needs to be here, but the october number is the one you want to look forward to. Lets get the totals of what we learned today. It is kind of a good news, bad news day in terms of the economy for some we have had one good, one bad, and michigan is kind of neutral. Retail sales of 1. 9 in the month of september, much better than the forecast and much better than the. 6 gain the month before. Retail sales, ex autos also big. Car sales were strong during the month. And then we look at the control group, the part that goes directly into gdp, and that was percent inly up, 1. 4 august. In august it was down by. 3 . A significant boost for retail sales in the u. S. Economy in september. On the other hand, that news on the manufacturing side, Industrial Production falls. 6, a lot of that because airconditioners were switched off, utilities went down. When youre factoring production surprisingly went down by. 3 . That was the bad news for today. The good news for today, the overall economy, the consumer is, two thirds of it, a big gain in retail sales is going to help Second Quarter growth. This is the last quarter of the month. The question is you mentioned october, what happens Going Forward ako it looks like we may have the possibility of a tailwind, and this may help explain why we saw strength in september. The new york fed surveyed people in august about what they did with the stimulus checks they got. They talked to over 1000 people, average check for the household, 2400. You can see what happened here. Much of that money was saved. 36 of the money went into went to pay down bills. So better than we expected, a Financial Base to work from. A better than expected Financial Base to work from. If they still have that, and of course we have run out of extra unemployment insurance, that could we will be interested to see what happens in october. Guy particularly as we start to see a strong rise in cases of the virus over here, and now the data starting to point to a similar thing in the states as well. Mike mckee, thank you. Carryon the conversation about italys market. Roland joining us now. Lets talk a little bit about first of all the economy in the united states. The data has held up surprisingly well. We certainly have seen that with the retail sales number today. In terms of how that is influencing your investment decisions, how are you factoring it in . Emily thanks for having me today. It is really interesting because , or these storms are brewing right now. You have a rising number of covid cases, clearly uncertainty around the u. S. President ial election, still no vaccine, and yet these storms can remain offshore or remain in the distance. The Economic Data continues to show strength. This twoseat economy developing where manufacturing is starting to get the consumer represents about 70 of pdp, really holding up here. While Economic Growth is slowing, it continues to show improvement, particularly here in the u. S. That feeds into our positioning. We have referred domestic shares, international equities, and within the u. S. , we want to own risk assets and be thoughtful about how we do that, keeping the data, the portfolio in check. Guy what does that mean . Emily what it means to us is, again, looking for companies that have the ability to generate strong return on equity for investors, have the ability to maintain margins throughout a market cycle, that leads us to areas Like Technology and communication services. We want to own those strong secular growth parts of the market, but we want to have some classically defensive sectors that also have that quality element, areas like health care, areas like consumer staples. So that barbell approach is going to give us exposure to risk assets, but we want to be prepared as well. The economic recovery is becoming choppy. It is becoming uneven. We dont want to fight the fed and we dont want to fight this massive amount of monetary stimulus in the system, but we want to be careful about the way we approach it. You all of those sectors just mentioned are expensive. Isnt that a problem . Pretty muchnk everything is expensive right now. We think about valuations, but we dont use them as the only input into our Asset Allocation views. They have not been a great indicator of short or even goingediate return forward, so valuations can tell you something about what is going to happen over the next 10 years, but really not over the next 12 to 18 months. So what is really important to us looking at p e ratios is the d. The nominate is the e. Monthsator, the next 12 and earning estimates on the s p 500 can continue to move higher. To us. Encouraging we are not seeing the same dynamic play out overseas. We are seeing earnings estimates stalling, but for the e for and emergingmarket equities. We are seeing much more resilience in the u. S. From a fundamental standpoint, which is the reason we have leaned into u. S. Equities, which this has been a call that has worked quite well. Following the profit. We will see. Markets, the nasdaq up over the last three weeks or so. The market is built up on the idea that if we do see a biden win, we will see significance to millis. The e a you say ignore so obsessedarket with bidens stimulus and not focusing at all on tax hikes or who could be treasury secretary, or this other important factors we are going to worry about come the postelection period. Emily it is so amazing how amazing the narrative has shifted it is so amazing how quickly the narrative has shifted. The key worry a few weeks ago was the fear of a democratic sweep and wouldnt that be a market friendly outcome wouldnt that not be a market friendly outcome full stop now that we have this democratic scenario looking more likely, investors are anticipating a larger fiscal stimulus package. In our view, we want to be really careful about using all these different political configurations or political as an inputtcomes because there is so much uncertainty around it and we just dont have an edge in doing that. So we look back historically on if politics dont matter, what does . Really it is the macroeconomic regime. As you look under the obama presidency, the second term, the Trump Administration, you got extremely similar returns to the markets. Not only broadly speaking but across asset classes. You had the same winners. Areas Like Technology, consumer discretionary, parts of the market that can grow organically without this resounding acceleration in Economic Growth. And on the bottom you have areas like energy, none u. S. Equities, financials. All areas that have been dogged by low rates, low inflation, and low growth. So really that macroeconomic regime has been much more influential on market returns, and frankly, we expect more of the same, which plays directly into our positioning. Guy emily, thank you for your time today. Emily roland. John hancock investment management. Thank you very much indeed. Have we got coming up . We are going to talk about the strength of the consumer, what a going on with the ceo of th Company Called avon. He will be joining us next. This is bloomberg. Ritika lets check in on first word news. Boris johnson is warning the u. K. To get ready for a no deal brexit. The u. K. Prime minister says he is walking away from trade talks with the European Union. As far as i can see, they have abandoned the idea of a freetrade deal. There doesnt seem to be any progress coming from brussels, so what we are saying to them is come here, come to us. If there is some fundamental change of approach will top otherwise we are more than happy to talk about the strategies that i described. Ritika talks between the do sides book continue between the two sides will continue this week. President trump is leaning on Mitch Mcconnell if that is what is needed to get a bill passed. That toldn told nancy pelosi that it is much smaller than the proposal being considered by the white house and nancy pelosi. Ohio, and michigan are seeing a big jump in coronavirus cases. Yesterday illinois reported more than 4000 new cases, a record. In michigan, oculusish ands have risen from 31 in the past week. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Alix . Thanks so much. Joining us now is roberto marques. Products insells more than 100 countries with key markets in brazil, mexico, the u. K. Come argentina, and russia. It is so great to talk to you. Give us the lens as to what areas of the Global Economy right now are holding up and what your visibility is over the next few months. Roberto thank you for having me. We are still in a very volatile situation. We know we continue to deal with the pandemic, and we are seeing geographies doing better than others. The good thing about our business is in terms of adapting and potentially visiting a lot of the go to markets to accommodate some of those challenges, we have seen tremendous increase, for instance, in our ecommerce business, growing over 200 . As well as our as you know, we have over 6 million consultants represented in the world, and it is wonderful to see how they are now leveraging social media as a way to potentially sell products to their own customers. So we are seeing an incredible increase in adoption of some of those tools, which is increasing their productivity. Despite some of the challenges as they continue to social distance, and some limitation from physical connection. Cosmeticso you sell person to person, face to face . How do you demonstrate how effective they are . How do you demonstrate to consumers that they want to buy your product and a time of covid . Roberto it is a great question. A lot of technology is helping, and we can a lot of tutorials, videos. A lot of our consultants have their own online store, either through facebook, youtube, where through with consumers how to use the products. They explained the differences, and technology is going to the , throughre they can ipad, even smell almost like the same feeling of touching the product itself. Technology has been a key enabler, and again, the resilience of our sales force in finding ways lets not forget they are all very entrepreneurial, and they kind of find a way to make sure that even with some of the limitations, they can be productive. Alix did you say that you can get people to smell something online . Roberto correct. There is a way now that you can almost like find a way to get almost the same sensation it is not exactly the same, but you , onactually get some notion some aspect of the probl produc, which is something we are expanding on our digital platforms. Guy youve definitely got a better ipad than i have. Alix seriously. Guy lets talk about how this is slowing or accelerating your turnaround of avon. What effect is it having . That is one of your key challenges right now. Roberto we are very excited about avon joining we closed that transaction back in january, and one of the things that we always believed, this notion of relationship selling, the notion that our business was on relationship. Just like in the past, door to door. Which was just on the physical space. And now really migrating to be also physical and online, which is high search, hightech. What is happening with a global pandemic, and there is a super line on that, there is this incredible acceleration. One because of necessity. But two, the consultant represented with more time at home to be trained, to be more comfortable in using some of those. So clearly something that was anticipated over a long period of time, we are seeing an acceleration of that integration, the acceleration of the adoption of those. If you look at the u. K. For example, what we call online what everybody remembers. Now we have those catalog visions, with the consultants through, through instagram, the digital catalog. In the u. K. We saw the sales of those brochures growing 600 . So it is a pretty fascinating isng to see how the business visiting what we always believed in, social selling, and it is now incredibly accelerated because of some of the conditions and the necessity, per se, of the global pandemic. Alix lets talk more about expansion. China is really the only country so far that sees any kind of vshaped recovery. You talked about expansion plans. How do you allocate capital . How aggressive are you thinking about expanding into china, or other areas, quite frankly . Roberto good question. China is a big opportunity for us. We have not been very active in china because of our strong value of not testing in animals, right . But the good news is now that we have avon and china, and we are seeing progress there, it is one of the markets that we want to terms of being able to increase our presence, working with growth through international and other organizations, to make sure that if we enter in china, we are still pretty much consistent with our principles of not testing cosmetics in animals. We are making progress and we are optimistic about the prospects of getting into china in a more in a stronger way. A quick question from me. It is something that we spent a lot of time talking about for obvious reasons. It is worth talking to every company to get their strategy. Do you think you are maximizing your esg credentials now, and maximizing the fact that you have right now to be able to turn that into a better share price . Esg is off the dna of those four Companies Since they were founded. All of the companies gathered this notion that business can be a force for good. And it is part of just the way those businesses think about it, how to connect with their local communities. How to source ingredients, how to think about diversity and inclusion. The good news is i think more and more, companies in the market as a whole are really being more audacious than that. That is important. That is absolutely very important, and we see that positive, as something that will help society and the planet as a whole. To actually be more sustainable. I see consumers demanding more, i see Companies Embracing more and the market and investors demanding that companies who really have stronger points of view on esg. We want more companies and more consumers to be aware of that productnd more from the to embrace this. Guy thank you very much roberto chairman t of executive chairman and group ceo. This is bloomberg. Alix etf friday. We will look at how a biden win in November Bloomberg intelligence is here to splint. Will you buy more etfs if biden wins . The etf Value Proposition to us is so strong. Youve got dirt cheap, they are liquid, you can trade them at any time. Also there is a 9 organic growth rate. We can we think that will take up to 12 or 13 if biden wins because he would look to stiffen the spirit of the initial dol rule, which obama started, which said that clients have to put the first. It is hard to believe they need a rule for that, but if they implemented it, what that would do is it would make advisors have caution because of cheaper funds. If they picked a more extensive one in the mutual fund world, they could be sued or get in trouble. This has been something where we look to the bank of new york survey, and there was 55 of advisors that said if the dol rules were implemented, it would use etfs more. Saying that a biden win would largely be a tailwind. The biden clean plan. Talk to me about that with etf. Which one is better fitting . Eric tan is having such a breakout year. It is up 140 percent, a 2 billion etf, and it has this tick recently as people play it as a blue wave play. I just want to caution everybody that under the obama administration, people said it would be a good play. It sold 80 in those eight years, yet Defense Companies and banks were up big. They beat the market under obama. The flip has happened under trump. So i think narrative and what should work with the president doesnt always play out. There is a randomness to it that i think people should be aware of. Guy absolutely. Everything is not always logical. Eric balchunas from bloomberg intelligence, thank you. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump i knew it was a big threat. At the same time, i dont want to panic this country. I dont want to say everybodys going to die. Mr. Biden we make up for percent of the World Population and we make up 20 of the world separate deaths. What is he doing . Nothing. Pres. Trump we had the greatest economy in the history of our country last year, including this to the florida, where we are now in pennsylvania and north carolina, every place, the greatest economy we ever had. Down, we close it saved 2 million lives. We opened it up, vshaped, and it is coming back. Mr. Biden you have 91 of the forge josh 91 of the fortune 500 companies not paying a single penny. Raise tax you would 1,300,000,000,000 by that one act. Clashing from afar, that was the dueling town halls by donald trump and joe biden, 18 days before the u. S. Election. Lets bring it down with rick politicalomberg contributor. The narrative out of the first debate was that trump was aggressive and interrupted a lot, and that turn some people off. Did he change the narrative yesterday . Rick i would say from a tone point of view, it much less domineering. He was able to have i think a civil conversation in that regard, with savannah guthrie, the interviewer. And seem to relate well to the questioners in the town hall , so i think that part of it pretty much worked well for him. Im not sure he did himself any favors the way he answered some of the questions. Guy do you think we learned more from trump than we did from biden last night . Think on the issue of who is the aggressor, donald trump reflect his standing in the polls. There is no question he is the underdog, and he was much more aggressive and combative than if you compare the tone and substance of joe bidens interview with george stephanopoulos, where he was much more measured, and i would say a little more cerebral. He talked in depth about policy issues, things he likes to talk about, and i think that for him it dispelled any concerns of his capacity, which was raised by trump over and over in the first debate. But definitely the two of them struck a very different tone in this dueling town hall. The reality is the election is already underway with many states having early voting going on. Rising covid cases really in the center of the country. It is a lot of trump land. Can you give me a sense of where we are and how