Quiet. Youve really got to believe, with the tone we got from the president last night, i thought more invigorated than the recent days, that this is really going to heat up into the kind of Campaign Money people have been expecting, as you say, with 20 days to go. Jonathan heating up on capitol hill as well. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi under a little bit of pressure. A 2 trillion game of chicken playing out in washington, d. C. Tom shes going after wolf like,r of cnn, which is, unamerican to do that. [laughter] seriously, talking to mr. Adams of kentucky, mr. Adams made clear that mr. Mcconnell is comfortable there. Political report came out about 4 00 yesterday afternoon and went to a seven seat dane for the democrats seven seat gain for the democrats in the senate. The momentum in the change is now extraordinary. Jonathan the shift has been phenomenal. Weve got to talk about the back numbers as well this morning the bank numbers as well this morning. Bank of america provisions lighter than expected, eps firmer than expected. More still to come. Lisa Goldman Sachs in particular, and wells fargo. I am interested to hear what their debt trading revenues look like. Bank of america underwhelming a touch on that front, with jp morgan and citigroup is overwhelming on that front. Also today is another day of fire hose fed speak. Rida,e getting cla quarles, and barkan. On the fiscal talk side, u. S. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin speaking today at the Milken Institute conference. Interesting to see whether the Republican Leadership is getting on board with President Trump and his proposal at this point. It seems like that fisher is getting that fissure is getting more entrenched. Jonathan we understand secretary mnuchin will be going to the middle east week. So if you are hoping for some big talks on capitol hill around the fiscal side of things, secretary mnuchin might be around. Tom but again, i go back to what you said, 20 days to go. Every election changes as you get into this stretch in late october. Of course, this is a unique election. We can all agree on that. Theres 20 days to go, and it is heating up. What are we going to see 24 hours from now after another day of campaigning . Jonathan couldnt tell you. Feels like a lifetime. Lets get to the price action this morning. Equities just starting to turn lower in the last hour on the s p 500. Negative six, down a little more than 0. 1 . Nasdaq futures just about positive on the session. Down about a basis point or two on the 10 year in the United States to 0. 71 . In italy, 64 basis points on the 10 year. Decompression across the continent has been remarkable over the last couple of weeks. Tom you see that with that real yield. We are looking for the real yield later this weekend, a property of jon ferro. 0. 99 45, a negative statistic. That is a recent low for that real yield, one of the indicators of the disinflationary tendencies out there. Jonathan a wednesday promo for real yield. Ill take it. Dan alpert is joining us now, Westwood Capital partner. Equities are trading on speculation and the absence of any other place to put money. Is that all it is . Daniel equity markets rise to extreme nearly high multiples on highvolume during high growth in the economy, and on low ,olume and relatively lower stagnant growth for the economy. Anything other than the fantasies equities and able equities enable. I dont think it is highvolume and tie growth. Tom what is the view on the American Labor economy . I believe elections are about jobs. We learns that in school, didnt we . You are doing Pathbreaking Research on this. What is the latest you have on the labor economy so we can brief the politicians all on this . Daniel the most salient statistic right now is the continued high levels of Unemployment Insurance claims. They range between 800000 and 900,000. This is not stopping. We are getting people who were previously reemployed back into the pool of people who have been laid off. This continues us both small and Mediumsized Enterprises begin to determine whether or not they can make it for the long haul, those that were propped up by ppp and other programs. You are now seeing substantial layoffs by large businesses, corporations, airlines, etc. That have delayed that pattern, and that is contributing to the problem. Is thatthat that this is occurring in a vacuum, while jobs picture improves in other data, is insane. To live inntinue this bipolar world where we see these enormous claims on the one you, and on the other hand, start having these very precise discussions over what was the testing for the data in the andn particular month what that actually reflects on the date that the jobs numbers come out. Lisa i am sympathetic to the parish view you have. I am sure that jon is the barash view the bearish view you have. I am sure that jon is smiling during we say that. They are even having lower chargeoffs than they previously expected. A lot of the data is still coming out better than people had hoped. Why are you right in that markets are not accounting for distress currently in the economy, and markets wrong . Daniel i am very glad that you asked that question. I was watching a few minutes ago, where there was that little glitch in the bank of america Loan Loss Provisions data. I started rewriting everything i was going to say. Nowwhat i am going to say is what i was going to say before that, which is as a practical matter, we have a huge financialirremediable obligations in what is a slow moving train wreck in terms of financial obligations. You have household rents in multi family that are deferred, but they have not been eliminated, and there is a very high prospect of default in that category, that will ultimately not be paid. The question is what is that going to do to the lenders that have been so far forbearing. You have things like the hotel sector, which is going to be absolutely catastrophic when it is time to reopen. Theres no way the Bank Interest is going to be repayable on most of those loans. Theres going to be substantial writedowns. You may have some degree of household mortgage defaults that come out. Not everyone is on the upward end of that case shaped recovery. Some people that case shaped recovery thatkshaped recovery that kshaped recovery. Some people are on the lower end of that. You will have sa me you will have smes that cannot survive. I think the banks are being overly optimistic in under provisioning, and at the end of the day, all of that is driven by employment and aggregate demand. Jonathan dan alpert, great to catch up with you. Dan alpert there of Westwood Capital, and Lisa Abramowicz very much on brand on bloomberg surveillance. Lisa for the record, i actually had an argument that was bullish , basically saying the numbers are coming in better than expected. I just want to put that on the record. Jonathan can we clip that moment and put that in a highlight reel . [laughter] shock. Tom im in stock. Jonathan lisa slightly constructive . Lisa you have to look at reality, and this is the challenge right now. Is our reality lower loan losses and lower chargeoffs . Is that a result of the leftover money, or a betterthanexpected economy . It is a big question. People dont really have a good sense of that. Jonathan that was the Lisa Abramowicz correction. [laughter] tom what a day it has been. Weve got claims coming up tomorrow with the kind of gloomy numbers that dan alpert is talking about. The nasdaq now back, slightly green after more green two hours ago. The jumble here is stark, but to be honest, also expected. Again, i go back to your top of the show comment. We are 20 days to the election, and it picked up with a vengeance. Just this morning, the New York Post clearly in support of President Trump, out with a lengthy dissertation on the Vice President s son hunter biden on ukraine, sourced out of mr. Giuliani, who i believe we talked to last week, and sourced out of maybe steve bannon as well. Very political, very angled. But all of a sudden, the heat is on, as it has been in elections since the beginning of time. Jonathan one week feels like a lifetime, and weve got three more of them still to come. Tom at 4 00 p. M. Yesterday, i literally turned and said, it is wednesday, right . I have lost track of the days. Jonathan alongside tom keene, im jon ferro, together with Lisa Abramowicz. Coming up on the program, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab chief investment strategist. Any words for the dog this morning . Tom its his birthday. Lisa happy birthday. Jonathan happy birthday. There you go. This show is nuts. [laughter] equities down two. Tom he wants to move out. Jonathan this is bloomberg. Kailey with the first word news, im kailey leinz. Prospects for another stimulus package before election day look bleak. President trump and Senate Republicans are at odds. The president was urging them to go big or go home, but Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell is only legend to vote on the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says it is not big enough. Meanwhile, the worlds top Central Banks are urging governments to keep spending. They say concerns about mounting debt should be put aside until economic recovery from the coronavirus is complete. The imf is normally a champion of budget restraint, but the fund agrees it is too early to end support. In the u. K. , there is growing pressure on Prime MinisterBoris Johnson to order a Circuit Breaker lockdown. The Opposition Labour Party say it is needed to get the virus under control. Deaths have soared to their highest level since june. Concerns are mounting that new restrictions are not enough. Russia has ruled out a deal with the u. S. On Nuclear Weapons before the election. The Deputy Foreign minister dismissed the call for a freeze on their arsenals as an acceptable. Thatberg has learned conocophillips is in talks to resources. Oncho conoco is looking to make a bet on shale before a historic downturn in the oil industry. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im kailey leinz. This is bloomberg. Judge barrett i am not sure, to the extent of the suggestion that i have an agenda, that i want to strike down peopless protections for preexisting conditions. That is just not true. I have never taken the position, and as i have said repeatedly, any policy preferences i have dont matter anyway. They are irrelevant. That is your job. Jonathan Amy Coney Barrett there, Supreme Court justice nominee. That is where the focus is for Senate Republicans. From london and new york this morning, good morning. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Hours, 12 minutes away from the cash open. Heres the price action for you in the equity market. The s p 500 dead flat. In the fx market, the eurodollar a little bit of a snooze as well, 1. 1741. Take a look at sterling. The Prime Minister and discovering right the trimester and this government apparently back the Prime Minister and this government a fairly backing away from the october 15 deadline. I think one of the most important things happening in the u. K. Is what happens with restrictions. Leader of theer, Opposition Party in the united kingdom, pushing the Prime Minister in this government to bring in a two to three week Circuit Breaker, and national lockdown. The Prime Minister and the house of commons saying that the tiered regional approach is the right way forward, but every morning, the front page, the pressure building on Prime MinisterBoris Johnson. Tom we will see where that heads in the coming hours, if not days as well. Right now, Kevin Cirilli. But we take great pride on at bloomberg surveillance is taking the zeitgeist and parsing it out. Our chief washington correspondent really reports on this in the trenches all day. Heres the lay of the land, changing by the moment 20 days to the election. The New York Post, clearly pro trump, puts out a cover treatment on hunter biden come on ukraine, sourcing from mr. President about a vice mr. Giuliani, about a Vice President compromised by ukraine. It basically says, with mr. Biden so reticent because of the pandemic to campaign, that he is really not that she has really not had the scrupulous analysis that he has really not had this screw beals analysis of most candidates. Thehat true had scrupulous analysis of most candidates. Is that true . Kevin you look at pundits on both sides of the il, and what they are doing is lobbying to be analysts. The question from a geopolitical since is who advises the commanderinchief. We have seen this play out in the past four years. It obviously predates this white house. But the question the post is touching on is on foreign policy. Who will have the commanderinchiefs ear . In this case, should it be president biden, as he is looking to rally western allies in europe, looking at dealing with russia, which he says he would be more combative with . Who would be arranging his meetings . That is the central question. Enough with the gossip. That is the key question. , president a debate trump and joe biden will contrast each other. Tom jon ferro is in london, looking at the football fixtures for the weekend. Lisa is worrying about how gloomy to get in the next 10 minutes. I am looking at wall street in none bidenand it is biden, and fox news is 24 7 on biden. s it back to jefferson and adams . Kevin i think you can argue snbc did the same thing a couple of years ago, but this is crunch time with 20 days out until the election, and the president is in need of some type of major trajectory shift between now and election day. They are looking at every possible opportunity in order to do so. Jonathan in a locked down liverpool, they show the game for free. That was Kevin Cirilli down in washington, d. C. [laughter] im joking. Lets talk about the absence of debate tomorrow and what the candidates are doing. President joe biden will be on abc. Walk me through how they can get count. Kevin based upon the conversations ive had, they have made a decided decisions that President Trump does not need a debate. He is not trying to convince the suburbs. They are really focusing on amplifying and running up the margins in red districts. That is their strategy. Whether that is a smart one, we will find out in 20 days. For democrats, they feel they do good in debates. Biden had a very strong debate. He got a bump out of the polls. He extended his margins. They are very much trying to get republicans who are skeptical of going democrat, but very apprehensive of giving the president for more years. They are trying to make a play for those votes. They view that as an opportunity. To be candid with you, the president doesnt see a second debate as helping him. A final debate, arguably one more, that would be something they likely would be or likely to participate in, based on the conversations i am having. Lisa is there any chance that republican leaders, Mitch Mcconnell in particular, will get more on board with President Trumps hope for a bigger stimulus bill . Ritika i think you sought kevin i think you saw this in speaker pelosis interview with wolf blitzer yesterday, and the intensity around this. I think all sides are feeling this. Rankandfile members in both parties are speaking more vocally about their frustration with leadership for not being able to get a deal. Trillion coming from the white house is a nge, socant chunk of ch the idea that that is not a lot of money is not making to sense to centrist democrats. You can feel their frustration that they are not able to get aid to their constituents. Jonathan kevin, we might have you back tomorrow. Kevin cirilli, bloombergs chief washington correspondent. More Bank Earnings to get to. Goldman dropping across the bloomberg. Upside surprise, trading revenues. Trading revenue for the third quarter, 4. 5 billion. The estimate, about 4. 4 billion. Investment banging revenue just shy of 2. 2 billion. Eps, 968. Upside surprise across the board it looks like this morning. Tom i really want to give a shout out to him of the distribution of Goldman Sachs earnings is way better than some of the other banks we have seen. These are very good numbers. I know we will have some experts parachute in here, but i see some nice upper doubledigit growth in the tangible book areas. Jonathan and a move higher in the stock, up by one point in percent. Coming up short