Closing early is not good. It is extraordinary. The difference versus what we have got here is absolutely extraordinary. Francine on the lockdown, it basically gives you a kind of a benchmark, code red, code rain, code yellow, to get a sense of what you code green, code yellow, to get a sense of what you need to do. They are trying to make it simple, but we are not even 24 hours until forest johnson made that announcement. Tom Jacob Sharfstein of Johns Hopkins, we talk to him two times a week, the lead quote today in the Washington Post be inoat it is real simple the Washington Post. It is real simple. Were just waiting for a vaccine. Leighann President Trump says he feels so powerful after recovering from coronavirus. He wants to walk into a crowd and kiss everybody. The president spoke at a rally in florida. His first stop since his return to the campaign trail. There was little social distancing at the event, although some spectators wore masks. Supreme Court Nominee amy coney onrett faces confirmation the second day of hearings. Yesterdays hearing wrapped up with her opening statement. She outlined her experience and spoke about the role of the judiciary. She said courts are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in public life. Johnson johnson has temporarily halted its Coronavirus Vaccine study because a Clinical Trial participant experienced an unexplained illness. The onus is being evaluated. The same thing happened last month the illness is being evaluated. The same thing happened last month with astrazenecas vaccine. It remains halted in the u. S. In china, another sign of recovery in global trade and domestic demand. Exports rose for the fourth month in a row while imports also increased, leaving a trade surplus of 37 billion for september. The resurgence of the coronavirus in europe poses a threat to chinas recovery. So does tension with the u. S. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im 120 countries, leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Im not going to mince words not that i am an apple fan boy, withhis is a huge day, futures negative seven. The nasdaq futures well over 12,000, up 48 points already. That is because of the excitement over apple, along with trading positions out there. The gamma trade, the whale trade, the rest of the stuff as well. On the data front, im going to call it a fairly quiet day with yields coming in. The 10 year yield,. 98, almost rounded up. 99. Ve nine that i dont know what to do with one 1. 0 30 61. Francine european stocks edging lower. I think a lot of it will depend on the bidding period for earnings, but there was a potential setback for progress toward the Coronavirus Vaccine because of a Johnson Johnson announced. Havent really looked at hurricane delta and its length all that much, but oil swinging again to a gain. That is the latest with the price of oil. 42. 21 as well. E i want to talk about apple with the news flow. We dont have that much tech talk with the news across surveillance, particularly with the election flow. But this is not a normal meeting. Apple had a september event. They have this event, that event, huge surge in the stock over the last two days. That has been led by dan ives. This new iphone has been the first redo in three years, and im going to use this word entifically join normas anticipation. I just would say to people going and 100 a. M. Pacific time p. M. Eastern time that this is not going to be a normal apple meeting. We will have to monitor that throughout the day. Nasdaq listing in the last 20 minutes. Futures at negative five, dow futures at 84. Going to0 im figure out off the bloomberg what that intraday record high is on nasdaq 100. Coming up in the next hours, fatty b roll will join us. Atty bay good morning, this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. We were talking about the market. Lets get straight to scott thiel, blackrock chief fixed income strategist. Is the only certainty with the bank meanings that the Economic Outlook is unstable and uncertain . Attt i think if we look what we term our activity restart, how economies have open, we have seen some upsize surprises on balance. We are dealing with the infections, as you were talking a little while ago and how governments deal with that. It seems that at the moment they are dealing with this in local measures. With a different color codes, etc. We have seenea that the economic trough in activity, that has led to the stronger markets and Stronger Economic performance. Obviously fiscal spending and what we get Going Forward is going to be missioncritical. The official institutions forecast for Economic Growth has been revised higher, and that reflects what we call activity restart, which is better than expected economic activity. Are we relying too much on Monetary Policy, and are we going to see a gradual weeding off if the policies are there toward more fiscal to rebalance everything . Scott i think that is right. We talk about this policy resolution, how Monetary Policy and fiscal policy are working together. It is interesting that potential bankers from the United States to europe are calling for continued fiscal response as part of the way governments deal with the covid crisis. I think that is very telling. We have in some respects a combination of both monetary and fiscal policy, but to some degree Monetary Policy looks like it is pretty much on hold for a long period of time, so has the balance now shifted to fiscal policy, which is why the markets are focused on it. Tom good morning. Xu know im always on the axis, evermore on the x axis right now. I love what hildebrand barged and the rest of you guys have come up with, the future is running at us. On a time continuum i think that is billion in that you go out to future and compounding back to the present reality. Discuss. Scott one of the things we have noted is that the covid crisis has accelerated many of the trends that we saw in place before the crisis. For example, when we look at deglobalization, which is something that the u. S. China trade tension had really put in place in investors minds, that has been accelerated by the health concerns. The issues around sustainability and putting together a supply chain globally amidst this type of crisis. Inequality, another of the trends that was in place that has been exacerbated, accelerated by the covid crisis. Even policy resolution, to bring it back to the Financial Markets look at the changes that have gone on in central bank policy, that were gradual and step functions before have just been lurched forward. Nasdaq 100, 300 points from a record high, futures up 83. As part of your leap forward where this Natural Disaster has compressed everything, is the dominance and almost a forpolistic dominance technology. Scott the companies in some respects were placed to benefit from more benefit in the kind of response to covid both from an Economic Perspective and policy perspective and from an individual mobility perspective, so the balance between health and the economy those Companies Continue to do very well. When we look into the future, what we would expect is to see that some of the smaller Cap Companies that are in that similar position would also benefit as time marches on. But clearly the easy view here is that the three Big Technologies not Just Technology but the companies that have benefited from the crisis to some degree continue their march higher. Tom are them francine are the markets already pricing in a possible joe biden when . Scott it is a very good question. We were talking about it this morning. What is happening is that the uncertainty around the outcome is coming down. Over looked at vix futures the turn, over the election period, they have come down from 34 now to high 20s. So i think the market is getting a hold of the widening in the polls that we have seen, a more decisive outcome, and so i think that is part of what we are experiencing here. I think the activity restart which we talked about is the other part. But i do think there is some certainty a very close election could potentially lead to uncertainty not only on the Election Night been on the transition of power, etc. Obviously a more decisive victory is clarity, less uncertainty and positive for markets. The next step would be until we get the kind of clean sweep as something the markets would reflect on because that would have the biggest impact. Tighten, if the polls what would you see happening in the markets . Do people buy volatility, or is there another way to play it . What we have noted particularly is the big contract is the Way Investors have been expressing this concern. So the tighter the polling, the tighter the less decisive the outcome, the more volatility we would expect around november 3. But obviously also in the weeks to come after that. And so i think the there is one way of playing that, obviously, is the vix from the expectation of volatility. The others treasuries. Treasury has suffered from being very low and yields have been very stable. I would note that we are basically the same yield we were on the day the fed announced their big policy on march 24. And so in my mind, the equity markets is where that volatility would be expressed. Thank you so much, scott thiel of Blackrock Investment stays with us. Coming up, the Ghana Central Bank governor will talk about that. We will also talk about investing. This is bloomberg. Bloombergthis is surveillance. Im leighann gerrans with the Bloomberg Business flash. Largestp at the Worlds Entertainment company, disney, is revamping operations to focus on the thriving disney plus business. The goal is to become a global streaming giant like netflix. Disney is putting its tv channel, film studio, and direct to Consumer Division inside one big group. A warning from the International Agency energy agency. Its at the oil market will low fromlonglasting the coronavirus and it will peak at a lower level. In a report saturday, the agency said Oil Consumption will fall 8 this year before returning to prepandemic levels in 2023. Hedge funds billionaire ray dalio is donating 50 million to fund a center dedicated to Health Equity and justice. News giving the money to york presbyterian hospital. The center will focus on reducing differences in access to Quality Health care that overwhelmingly affects communities of color. That is your bloomberg is this flash. Francine . Tom . Tom thanks so much. Mentioning hydrocarbons, we are glad to have the governor of the central bank of ghana with us and if human us. Scott thiel continues with us. I want to do the blackrock math, and what it comes down to is that we are all flying blind. Dont have a riskfree rate, we dont know what the map is, we dont have the sharpe ratio and we dont have the anchor anymore. Daydo you do the math every in fixed income . Scott i think you have to assume that the low level of volatility is very important for valuing any asset class. Equities and any other fixed income instruments as well. We talked about this. Monetary toom fiscal policy has important implications down stream. It would suggest that Monetary Policy is on hold and we are at the lower bound. Treasury bonds do not fulfill the same type of resilience for investors that they have in the past, and the total return may be on a multiyear basis, it may be negative. That is something we have not experienced before. You have to look at the Asset Classes in that context. The lack of volatility can obviously be supported for certain Asset Classes, but it can also obviously suggest that the role that treasuries play, particularly in the risk, is less than it has. Tom 2 william li3 explained. What do we use2 some form of the derivative market, is a proxy for the credit babbling yield. That out there somewhere . The way to think about it more is from a portfolio perspective. A holistic way to think about it is if treasuries dont offer you the resilience as a result of covid come as a result of those the future running at us, what does he echo look at it on a portfolio perspective. That might be private markets, that might be commodities, that might be there are different aspects. I think a onesizefitsall is a kind of tough thing to go forward, particularly given the environment that we are in. But i think you are very much onto the right thing, which is treasuries dont give you the resilience they used to give you, so what else does he echo i think that is a very specific what else does . I think that is very specific portfolio effort. Francine what do you do with italian btps at the moment . If you look at spreads between german and italian 10 year bonds, it is pretty significant, nothing like we have seen in recent history. Scott we have been long peripheral bonds in our asset allocations on the view of the power of the ecbs program, and if we look particularly at the outperformance of bunds relative to treasuries, there is this view around the strength of the ecb program. I think the risk here, francine, is the recovery fund. Obviously that has fallen off of peoples radar screens. As the approval process goes forward. So for us the trend continues, the oppression continues. One thing the investors need to keep an eye on, it that approval process, it is not our base case. That would be an important part of that investment peace. But for now, peripheral bonds, the spread for per debt for compression continues, and i dont see something that disturbs that other than the e. U. Recovery fund. Francine what about guilds . They are partly moving because of rex it but partly also because of what we heard from the because of brexit but also because of what we heard from the governor. Is he ready to go to negative rates . Scott the policy there, i think they would prefer not to do that, but we look at the u. K. Specifically this week in our most recent weekly, and one of the things that we would note is that the combination of the virus and the governments response and brexit have left the u. K. Somewhat struggling behind the euro area and the u. S. In terms of the recovery. That makes sense given what we have what we know particularly about brexit. So gilts again, having outperformed treasuries, underperformed buns, it seems to be in that range of fundamentally reflecting kind of the broad performance of the u. K. Economy, given again the policy response and brexit. I think obviously brexit is a big issue for investors. You know, one of the things that is important for gilts is that they dont offer a diversifying future from buns or from orasuries that from bunds from treasuries. They lose their International Appeal to some degree, and that is something obviously the bank is going to be very focused on, that governments will be focused on. From a fundamental perspective, the u. K. Has lagged the recovery in many respects because of brexit and their response, so gilts seem to be reflecting that. I dont think there is anything particularly outstanding about their value. , scotte thanks so much thiel. You can also tune in later today as we host the Imf World Bank later meeting panel. We have a former blackrock governor, larry fink. You can watch that at live go in part at 1 00 p. M. New york time, six a clock p. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. Francine President Donald Trump and diving right back into campaigning. He told an audience in florida he felt so powerful after recovering from the coronavirus that he wanted to kiss everybody. There was little social distancing at the rally at the Orlando Sanford international airport. Some spectators did wear masks. A fanden says he is not of expanding the supreme court. Its his clearest answer on the issue after weeks of dodging the question. Biden was speaking in an interview in cincinnati on the idea of adding seats to the supreme court. It has gained traction among democrats. Many are angry after republicans are rushing through the confirmation of amy coney barrett. Infections are soaring in republican strongholds and the key swing state of wisconsin. Three weeks before the election the hardest hit states are north dakota, south dakota, montana, wisconsin, and utah. Hospitalizations are on the rise in all five states. A Hedge Fund Billionaire says china has the advantage over the u. S. On a range of issues. The wilkin Institute Global conference. China is time is on chinas side and it is not on the u. S. s for various development. What will be a difficult situation in the new administration is, destiny is on the side of China Growing and doing better probably. Says one of chinas advantages is having higher Interest Rates which means it is in a better position of not having to print money. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powe