?o a presumed debate october 15 crisis, go to cash. do you understand we are 3% from a dow record high? jonathan: the narrative has really shifted away from the worries about a contested election, and now the conversation about the potential of a blue wave. no question about it. we like to see more polls coming out. the candidates really migrate to arizona today and tomorrow to come off the messaging from utah. have you seen the polls for going to be at -- polls from quinnipiac? a five-point lead in iowa for biden. the average right now, 9.4 points to biden. i feel you, tom. i get it. everyone else does, too. they are conditioned by the experience of four years ago. that is a conversation with kevin later this morning. tom: again, i look at the markets. the doom and gloom out there, the vix, the volatility at 28, i'm sorry. look at the equity recovery and look at corporations adjusting. this breaking ibm news is important. jonathan: after a big acquisition last year of red hat, the restructuring at that company continues. , will wetum in america see it continue? the data is about 90 minutes away. lisa: and does the data matter? we will get the u.s. initial jobless claims. it is getting messier. mike mckee has done a great job eliminating how this is increasingly being looked at as a lagging indicator rather than because ofndicator miscalculating some aspects and cracking down. 12:00 p.m., house speaker nancy pelosi speaking on bloomberg tv. how interesting to see willing she is to pass piecemeal support bills, whether it be for the airline companies, for stand-alone checks to american families, which she has rejected so far. 6:30 p.m., the feds robert kaplan also speaking on bloomberg. pushbackng to hear his on additional rounds of quantitative easing. there seems to be willingness on the part of other fed members to expand on those purchases. robert capital that robert kaplan saying, what more will? ? more qe accomplish -- will more qe accomplish? jonathan: it may be refreshing to hear from kaplan, given he is an outlier right now. rally yesterday. equities up another 15, adding a little bit more weight to the s&p 500. euro-dollar. the bond market refusing the move higher -- the bond market reversing the move higher over the last couple of days. the u.s. 10 year, 0.65 percent. that's got to be the story of the week. .ot just the happy talk tom: you are better at the 10 year range than i am, but this is important. yes, yields have lifted. yes, we got a little bit of curve steepening. i would suggest the 10 year real sentd is pretty quiet at a -0.94 percent. it hasn't moved all that much, so it is just a very nice list to the mathematics and not something abrupt. jonathan: we could have that conversation right now with sebastien page, t. rowe price head of global multi-asset. i have to say, it is timely. can we talk about diversification beyond a 10 year treasury? sebastien: that's what asset allocator is are losing sleep over. in september, the stock market went down 9%, and the treasury's index actually lost 15 basis points over that period. so it is simple math at some point. on zero bound puts limits potential gains from treasuries. so the yield on the barclays treasuries index, about 50 basis points, and its duration is seven years. suppose stocks selloff by 20%, 30%. what is your upside on the barclays treasuries index? it is seven times 50 basis points. it is 3.5%. after that, you are in trouble. look at what we saw for german bones -- german bones during covid -- german bunds during covid. that is what i set out ok to's were losing sleep over. at where we are in diversification, and it still comes back to technology weight in equities. how does t. rowe price suggest you manage away from the technology weighting, or do you just live with it and say it is a new era? we like both growth and value stocks. there is a view that we are near tech bubble valuations in technology and growth stocks. i disagree with that view. you have to adjust for the fact that those companies with digital business models are doing very well, and have very big and growing revenues, but nonetheless, at this point, while we like both, we are starting to lean towards value. it has underperformed growth by 35% year to date, so you do want to take profit and some of those large cap tech names. and lets the about the election outcome. it could favor infrastructure in massive stimulus. we have seen increased probability of a blue wave. growth is more exposed to tax , on top ofverall that, let's look 12 months from now. we get into an environment where we are finally covid off. you could see value do well, but we are still worried about lower rates and their impact on the bank sector and the ability of financials to earn money. we are finally starting to tilt towards value, but still arguing for diversification between both. lisa: i love covid off. we all look forward to covid ofttimes. what does diversification mean? sebastien: so what are the solutions? let's go back to the treasury question, and whether they still diversify your equity risk. first of all, we all know there is a huge asymmetry in how diversification works. we have just seen during covid that across risk assets, when you get a crisis, you essentially lose your diversification. i like to look at conditional correlations. i know it is a nerdy kind of thing, and tom will call this math enus -- call this mathiness, but in months during which equities are rallying, their correlation with non-us equities is -17%. andou go to the other tail look at months during which u.s. equities are crashing, the bottom 5% of their monthly returns, the correlation jumps to 87 percent. so there is this asymmetry, and you have to deal with that. tom mentioned before, many investors are over diversified. use average correlations and diversify your portfolio based on averages. solutions to the problem that treasuries have limited but in thation, context, will include going longer duration. you still get 1.4% of the long bond index. looking at dynamic strategies, managing your volatility directly, and ultimately after ,hat, if you can't diversify you have two or three options. you can hedge, you can change your risk aversion and say i am just going to de-risk my portfolio, or just accept that it is going to be a bumpy ride in markets as you invest for the long run, and that you are going to have greater exposure to loss , but that you are going to still invest in equities because you want a long-term outcome that is going to help a rate of return. you don't get a rate of return on treasuries these days, especially after inflation. .hose are some of the solutions jonathan: what are you looking at in the fx market to replace some of that? a lot of people looking at things around the election. your thoughts on using the fx market to replace what has been lost in treasuries? sebastien: it can work. whether you use options or direct exposures, the low interest rate currencies tend to be safe havens, so you could get exposure into the japanese yen for example. typically, those are relatively small parts of investors' portfolios. and what is your expect in return? as asset allocators, we need to deal with all of these trade-offs. i could just put a huge position on the japanese yen, but what is my new expected return, and what are my long-term outcomes? i think currencies can be used as an instrument, but they typically have low expected returns or are a smaller part of investors' portfolio. jonathan: great to catch up. sebastien page there, t. rowe price head of global multi-asset. it is a big conversation right now, the asymmetric risks around treasuries. they are not rallying as much as when you get a selloff in the equity market or a rally in the equity market. my question on foreign exchange is a pretty simple one. do you get downside protection k something like aussie, iwi, again something like japanese yen? tom: there's a cost to effecting a transaction. anytime i hear the word option, i hear expense, and that expense takes out any potential return from the hedge. all of my radar is up on this, i'll be honest. jonathan: some of those positions were being built up over the last kabbalah months -- last couple of months. equity futures up 14, 0 .14% -- 0.4% on the s&p 500. westmacott,ir peter former u.k. ambassador to united states. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it was a debate heavy on policy, without all of the dramatics of last week's presidential event. vice president mike pence and kamala harris squared off last night insult lake city. not surprisingly, the first question had to do with the coronavirus. pence said president trump has put the health of the american people first. harris said he has forfeited their right to reelection by the way he's handled the pandemic. president trump called his case of coronavirus a blessing from god, and credited regeneron's experimental antibody treatment for his apparent recovery. the president says he plans to authorize the emergency use of the treatment and provided for free to americans. house speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary steven mnuchin will talk again today about an airline relief bill. the two discussed the measure yesterday after president trump pulled negotiators from talks on a broader stimulus package. last week, house democrats tried to pass an extension of expiring aid for airlines, but republicans blocked it. atricane delta is taking aim louisiana after hitting mexico. the storm slammed into the cancun area, knocking out power in triggering a dangerous storm surge. it weakened to a category one hurricane, but is expected to strengthen before coming on shore tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ sen. harris: you respect to the american people when you tell them the truth. you respect the american people when you tell them the truth, things they do not want to hear but need to hear so that they can protect themselves. , when ie: quite frankly look at their plan that talks about testing, developing tbe, creating a -- developing ppe, creating a vaccine, it looks a little like plagiarism, which is something joe biden is about. jonathan: good morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this thursday morning shaping up as follows. two hours and 12 minutes out from the opening bell, about an hour and 12 minutes away from the opening data and america. equity futures with a lift, up 0.4%. euro-dollar, $1.1754. greek 10 year yield, record lows. tom: i am so glad you brought that up. i noticed that when i begin my day three hours before you. it is were markable what has happened in greece. and iamazing how ferro are sometimes on the same wavelength. i want to take a headline from this important breakup of ibm. this is a story that is just hitting right now. they are taking action to simplify and optimize the operating model. let's bring that over to kevin cirilli in the political world in utah, maybe on his way to arizona or miami, maybe back to the beltway in washington. how does the trump administration, off the debate with the vice president, how do they simplify and optimize the trump election model? that question to a senior advisor to the president's campaign, and he says they are going to do it not districts to swing go read, but by turning red districts "blood red." it is a turnout election, for lack of a better phrase, and it is something i think you saw on full display yesterday as both senator kamala harris and ice ence were mike p speaking to their respective bases and proving why they were chosen to be on the respective ticket. tom: something i think you do , you are noticing from 2016, the turnout differentials. jonathan: i think things were so tight in 2016 and the polls get such a bad rap. let's look at the data in front of us right now. the quinnipiac polls in the last 24 hours got a ton of attention. how much attention to the get? -- attention should they get? kevin: i put this question to a democrat source on joe biden's campaign, and they said they are taking it with a grain of salt. there is still some anxiety, and they are having flashbacks to 2016, in which the polls were so significantly wrong. i also spoke about this to a source the campaign that walked me through the sampling model of those quinnipiac polls, according to the republican source, that suggests the turnout level for republicans in 2020 will not match the enthusiasm levels of 2016. they push back and say that their internal polling suggests otherwise. it is typical spin from both sides, but we will have to wait and see until election day. lisa: did last night's vice presidential debate change anything? kevin: i think it did, in the sense that for the first time, there was a substantial policy oriented debate where voters and the world. to hear a key different -- the world got to hear key differentiations between harris and pence. there is a historic nature in senator harris' vice presidential nomination. she tried to draw a sharp contrast in the rhetorical inroach biden would take comparison to president trump. contrast ando draw energy policies, tried to link her to alexandria ocasio-cortez on fracking, and we did hear a little bit about u.s.-china trade policy. tom: this comes off of our conversation yesterday with mr. giuliani, the former mayor of new york, and also what we saw in the first debate. are we addicted to the zoo of it? are all of us across the political sphere addicted to the new cacophony that mr. trump invented? kevin: i want to choose my words carefully. i think maybe the bubble that we find ourselves in is addicted to it, but out here in utah, there is a palpable frustration, as well as in ohio, as well as being on the trail and talking to voters. there is a palpable frustration about the ecosystem we find ourselves in, and i would be hesitant to point the finger at one particular individual for that moment, based upon my experiences over the last decade in covering washington. jonathan: kevin, always diplomatic. we are not trying to get you in trouble. don't worry. tom: i was. [laughter] jonathan: i want to try and help the people outside of america that don't quite get this. when they start talking about packing the courts, and the former vice president joe biden doesn't want to talk about it, and when senator harris doesn't want to talk about it, can you would explain to people outside of america what is going on, and why the ticket doesn't have an answer yet? kevin: i will put it in investors peak. party inthere is one control of all three branches of government, that is when that party, especially if they have what is known as a super majority in the senate, is able to enact quick and fast change. that would include nominations, and that would include constitutional amendments. possibility, the the very real possibility of a 6-3 conservative majority on the supreme court, the far-left base is arguing that there should be additional justices to combat the conservative tilt of the court. i do want to note, at the bloomberg equality summit, the former nominee to the democratic party, hillary clinton, went so far as to say she did not support adding additional supreme court justices to the supreme court. last night, what she saw was senator harris walking a very tight political line, and the sense that she was in part chosen for the ticket because she does have that connection to the democratic base. she had to be incredibly careful, especially as she and vice president pence weighed their future political ambitions. i think what you saw last night were two incredibly skilled politicians at points dodging questions. jonathan: kevin, great to catch up. it was a tremendous showing, tom keene, of two people's ability to listen to a question and answer a different one, but it just exposed a couple of areas where i think, if we do have a october 15,e come those are the areas both candidates will try to tap into. tom: we just had this headline coming in. i will quote it directly because i am not informed on it. "second presidential debate will be remote." i would suggest that is not what president trump wanted to hear. jonathan: that is the headline right now crossing the bloomberg, whether he wants to hear it or not. the second presidential debate will be remote. if thisnt to speculate is connected to the health of the president or the timing of his quarantine. we will talk about that next, here on "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. 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kevin: it no doubt creates another spectacle as we head into next week's second presidential debate. there are two points that i would underscore in this statement that the commission on president debates announced moment's ago. the first is that steve scully, who is moderating the debate, the still be in miami at forer p -- the center the performing arts in miami-dade county. the citizens asking the respective candidates are also, according to the statement, also going to be inside of that venue. the only people who will be in separate locations are president trump and vice president joe biden. so that question is going to be remarkable, to see how joe biden and president trump respond to this. . i do want to say something i learned last night based upon my reporting, and speaking with campaign officials for the president's reelection campaign, yes, the president is fully intending to hit the campaign trail next week, as early as monday. there is a story this morning on the bloomberg which says the president could have a rally in pennsylvania on monday. but i also want to note that, based upon my reporting, he is fully intending to go to florida next week. this as the president has continued to try to project that his health is on the mend ever since getting diagnosed with covid-19. gotta jonathan:. headline -- jonathan: got to do a couple of things here. discussing this, morgan stanley to buy eaton vance for $7 billion in equity value. we will reach out to our correspondent sonali basak in just a few minutes. just to return to this, if it was difficult to moderate the last debate, how difficult will it be with the two candidates somewhere else? kevin: i think it raises a lot of questions in terms of how do you moderate a debate in a split screen, at a time in which, during the first debate, there were clearly questions about the participants speaking over one another and not sticking to the rules that both of the campaigns had agreed to. it was clearly a strategy. so no doubt, this will be dissected every which way. i think you could have a situation where you have one participant at a headquarters and another participant in florida. i don't want to speculate, but based upon my reporting, it is being considered that these two individuals are still planning to travel. joe biden will be in arizona today was senator harris. so this is both a sign of the times, but it also raises questions about whether or not there is ample time left to change the trajectory of the race. and again, especially when you're dealing with two campaigns who feel this is a turnout election in unifying their respective bases, how will that factor into the strategy they take in a split screen virtual debate? tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it this morning. the new slow this morning is stunningly varied. we have the ibm spinoff. we haven't even gotten to it yet. this is huge news. as jon just mentioned, morgan stanley to take out the venerable eaton vance of boston. we had abby joseph cohen on with us for the ibm news. now,aldner joins us invesco chief income strategist, steeped in the legacy of asset management. i don't want to get you in trouble with your general counsel and with your senior executives at invesco, but with respect to your decades of work, i have to ask you about what we are seeing worldwide, as we saw with your important transaction with oppenheimer, which is the roll up of asset management. where is your business going to be in a decade? rob: thank you for not getting me in trouble. i think what is pretty clear here is the asset management business, for a while, has been consolidation. rcl -- our ceo has talked about that a number of times. it is clear that as we move forward, you need to have scale in this business, so that really speaks to consolidation in the regulatory structure, as the market evolves. that is what you are seeing here. tom: we are at the zero bound. there's any number of ways of looking at this. how do we do asset management forward for the bloomberg world with fees here, but the yield here as well? i don't get that math. help me with that. rob: that's why you need scale in asset management. as i'm sure you know, asset management fees are not going up. i think particularly because of what you speak to, which is a very low level of rates. we've discussed this before, but real yields are negative, so if you buy a treasury after inflation, you get back less in 10 years then you put in. so that is forcing people to go about into different types of asset classes, new asset classes . one thing we are quite excited about his real assets. that is an asset class that more and more people have been looking at. and various fixed income credit assets, because there you are getting that yield. to invest in those requires a lot more knowledge capability and breadth of capability, so that is where an asset manager can really shine is in those more complicated asset classes. to bet think we are going managing treasury portfolios too much in the future, at least on an active basis. lisa: do investors care about just how much alpha you produce, or are they complete me focused -- are they completely focused on who will get the bulk of the assets and win this roll up game? rob: we feel very strongly that we produce output, and that our clients recognize that output. i think every client has a different objective. we are not saying that all clients should behave the same way. some are looking to reduce fees. above everything else, it seems like we have had some clients like that. but we think an intelligent way to think about managing your portfolio is to pay for alpha. pay for good alpha where you can get diversified return that is not tied specifically to the asset class, but diversified from that asset class. that is what i'll find is, and we can produce alpha. we think clients will continue to pay for alpha. thing tom keene has talked about quite a bit is money market funds, and the difficulty of running a money market fund with near zero rates. how can you charge any fees at all? has the low rate regime effectively killed the asset management model for money markets? fundsell, money market have had a large inflow this year, so there is a lot of interest in money market funds. people are using them to store cash, etc. so that business will continue to be there. i think it is an important part of capital markets. i think it is one of the reasons why we believe you are unlikely to see negative rates in the united states. negative rates are very difficult for money market funds, and we have a capital markets driven capital market here, where money market funds and other things like that play a large role. we expect a money market funds to be around for a very long time. jonathan: rob, fantastic to catch up. sorry to keep it short. rob waldner there of invesco. morgan stanley to buy eaton vance for about $7 billion in equity value. james gorman, one of the busiest ceos of wall street through 2020, e*trade earlier in the year, worth about $13 billion. going us now, sonali basak, bloomberg wall street correspondent. it is another one for mr. gorman at morgan stanley. your take on the deal this morning. sonali: absolutely incredible. it was only a couple of years ago when james gorman said he wanted to double the size of this asset manager. they kind of walked it back a little bit, saying they didn't need to do it, and guess what? now you have morgan stanley playing in the big leagues of asset management, with more than $1 trillion of assets under management. clearly, james gorman is saying, in my last few years of ceo, i am comfortable with changing the fabric of this firm, and the person who leads the asset management business is one of the potential successors of the business. definitely gets his day in the sun today. tom: a very important question to put things in perspective. years ago, his first job after leaving the boston red sox, all of that history is fine, but what did morgan stanley pay here? did they overpay by the heritage of the boston mutual fund industry? sonali: it is funny that you ask that. the shares are not reacting super positively this morning. they are down a little bit. morgan stanley, by the way, as you are saying, mutual funds is an area that tends to scare people. morgan stanley so far has been able to punch above its weight by sticking to many private assets, more bespoke products. but morgan stanley is also the home of dennis lynch. so they have been able to show that stockpicking pays off. they have moved a lot of that into private markets, where they have excelled pretty significantly in their investment bank, and you are right. it is a tough business. but they have made the case for public markets before, and i assure you they will continue to do that in the coming days as they convince investors that this is worth it for them. lisa: eaton vance is well-known known for its credit arm, for its fixed income operation. a big presence particularly in leveraged loans. can we make any inference from this purchase by morgan stanley in terms of which asset classes morgan stanley sees as the most lucrative to manage going forward? sonali: it is funny you mention that because morgan stanley, for a couple of years now, had made significant investments in their fixed income business. anon vance is definitely extension of a lot of the stuff they have already done. fixed income they like. they are in private markets. we know they like funds. they like having stock pickers. so it is definitely something that we have already known, as we have said before, this is a huge bet. top is a $7 billion bet on of the deal they just made and just closed a little over a week ago for e*trade. so how big does this make them now? it makes them 4.4 trillion dollars in assets overall, in wealth and investment management. ,hose wealth management funds those thousands of advisors across the country will also be able to work with this platform. jonathan: the participants might be a little bit nervous remembering the last deal was february 20. i am sure some people recognize that. every ceo has an objective of what they want their back to look like. what does james gorman want this back to look like? what is the ultimate goal here? sonali: by adding to this asset management business, they have created another significant leg. we know morgan stanley is a big institutional securities firm. i adding e*trade, they have added a big brokerage. now they have another big asset manager. they look more like goldman sachs than they did yesterday. and they said through e*trade they would be adding a digital bank, so morgan stanley is punching above its weight, trying to be a much bigger bank than it was, and remember, james gorman has almost jp morgan like returns on the horizon insight. over the next number of years, he is really betting, and hopefully we will ask him sometime very soon whether he can hold true to those return targets while he is spending so much money. jonathan: great to catch up. no doubt we will touch base again later in the day. morgan stanley stock down in the premarket by about 1.9%. tom: a little bit of a move here. i just can't say enough about the history here involved with morgan stanley and eaton vance. eaton vance touched lightning 30 years ago when they figured out in aanaged funds relatively small shop up in boston. hit a homerun in products with the idea of text managed -- of tax managed, particularly tax-free funds. that is some of the innovation that a conservative fund up in boston brought, today taken in by morgan stanley. jonathan: let's get to our next guest, shall we? sir peter westmacott, u.k. former ambassador to the united states. thisually try to make program a brexit free zone. we can't do that now. can you walk me through what is going on? [laughter] sir peter: i thought you were going to ask me about the debate last night. it is very hard to tell what is going on with brexit because here in london, there are good prospects of a deal, which is what boris johnson is talking about, but you talk to the people in brussels, and although there was maybe some movement on some of the issues, still where thep is european union is. so the chances are there will be a skinny deal by the end of the year, deadlines will be extended, we will do the usual 11th hour kind of stuff. peter, i know you have been fishing in the north sea, but it is not a surprise that on any trade transaction, it always devolves to the ancient art of fishing. how important is the fisheries debate in getting this to a constructive outcome? sir peter: fisheries are always there. squabbles with trawlers, all sorts of stuff. it is a small part of the u.k. economy, but 80% of the fish that british trawlers catch is landing in eu ports, so there's a lot of economic interest in both directions. it is iconic, it is political, it is emotional, but they say that is the last remaining item to be resolved. actually, i doubt it. there's a whole lot of other things, including financial services, energy connectivity, and a lot of other things that are not there. people are very nationalistic about fisheries. lisa: you talked about financial services, people perhaps a little nationalistic there as well. there was a story on the bloomberg talking about, with the headline, "london stays as a stock trading hub, numbered in the trade debate." how close are we to london losing its preeminence in the trade with the likes of not waiting to see what the deal is an moving staff out of the city? sir peter: we have seen people moving to blazes like luxembourg while these negotiations are going on, which i would say, as a brit, is not great news. i think if there is a deal, and as a result of that, and understanding and at least continued role of london as the financial services center for europe, i am not sure that that hemorrhaging will continue. if there is no deal, the atmospherics in terms of sorting out what will be the role of the city of london, and will other european financial services companies will still be able to do their innovative financial deals in london, that becomes much harder to do as well. so i think it is particularly important for financial services that some sort of a deal, even if it is a skinny deal, is sorted out. london will remain the most important, the biggest financial services center in europe, but no deal at all means that that preeminence will be weakened. tom: i must ask you about our elections, maybe not the minutia of a vice presidential debate, but about the reinvigorating of the relationship across the atlantic. we make silliness about who walks in front or behind the queen. i understand that. shift iftect a radical we have a president biden? sir peter: i would detect a more normal relationship if we have a president biden and a biden administration with people around him making the system work who are road tested from the days that they worked with obama, or indeed with president clinton. and vice president biden knows a lot of people here. i think it will be more like a traditional religion ship with allies. president trump, with all of his emotional talk for brexit and free-trade agreements which have not come to anything, was entirely unpredictable. but there is a relationship there with boris johnson which was obviously quite cozy. but his were marks about nato, his hostility to europe, his coziness with putin, the unilateralism of many of the ways in which he runs government policy i think makes it quite complicated. so i think if you had a biden, it would be more normal, but the one flag i would make is that he is irish-american, as well as british american, and will take a very dim view of this government and the u.k. if we mess about with the good friday agreement in ireland as part of our brexit negotiations. tom: interesting. telus also about trade. we were talking with abby joseph cohen about the shock of twin deficits. so much of the united kingdom is a resurgence of trade. can you do that, given the trade flatness we see now? sir peter: reporter: -- sir peter: much of our strong trade america goes like on without a free-trade agreement, and as a result of the e.u. relationship with the united states, if we are out of the european union and without a free-trade agreement, then some of that trade is going to be more difficult. there will be automatic tariffs. there will be standards, regulations, things which get in the way of it. so the chances of making up for the damage done by 45% of our exports, which go to the rest of the european union now, being hit by tariffs, other obstacles once we are out of the single market, by trading relationship with our other partners, is pretty remote. at best, it will be status quo, but making up the difference doesn't look very likely. that said, i think a president biden administration will want to make that relationship work, but trade policies is done by congress, not by the white house. so it is not entirely in his hands. lisa: if i am hearing you correctly, are you saying there is a wave of deglobalization that you think is going to continue, regardless of which administration gains power? sir peter: i think there will be some deglobalization. part of this is the result of tensions we have with china. part of it is the result of the real damage done to supply chains by coronavirus and the introductions of trading patterns caused by that. part of it is economic nationalism. can't we on shore some of those things we offshored and lost jobs? be not so mucho more america first type stuff with protectionism, but less global interdependence because people are nervous about it for the reasons i just mentioned, and also because i think there is greater distrust of china right now around the world, in it wishes touses make up its growing economic strengths. jonathan: did we get around to asking you about the debates? what did do thing about the debate, sir? sir peter: i thought it was nice to see the debate going back to be something resembling normal conversation because frankly, the last one was content free and pretty offensive in many respects. this one, there wasn't a lot of interruption, and of course, vice president pence had taken a leaf out of the president's book and ignored the moderator, but nevertheless, i think they got into some content. i was a little surprised that the supreme court judge nomination at kamala harris didn't pile in a bit more hard on the way the trump prime minister region has dealt with it, but equally -- trump has dealt with it, but equally, both didn't answer some of the questions. what it was civil, and i thought it was an opportunity for people to get an idea of what the two different options really are in policy terms rather than just and who throws tantrums. jonathan:jonathan: this was also a civil conversation. i look forward to the next one with you, sir. excellent to catch up, peter westmacott, former ambassador to the united states. some headlines crossing the bloomberg. one from morgan stanley, to buy eaton vance for $7 billion in equity value. that came shortly after we got the headline from the debate commission overseeing the presidential debates. the second u.s. presidential debate will be remote. october 15, miami, florida. we understand that the moderator and perhaps the participants who will be asking questions might be in miami, florida. the presidential candidates will not be. tom: it will be interesting to see the reaction. i have no prediction what we will hear from team biden and team trump. a lot of people thought somehow, we get it done under a more traditional guys. we had -- traditional guise. we had the plexiglas last night just asha -- in utah, an example of that. you know what, jon? we are making it up as we go. jonathan: can you mute, please? i think that is what is going to come up again and again. for anyone who has done a zoom call in the last nine months, can you imagine trying to button? without a mute tom: they will probably mute the president. jonathan: like i mute you? tom: yeah. [laughter] jonathan: with equity futures adding to the gains of yesterday , up 16 points, we advanced 0.4%. in the bond market, treasuries just a little bit firmer. it's been quite a week. we wake up in the treasury market. yields come in a single basis point. the euro just a little bit weaker. euro-dollar, $1.1755. tv, heard onberg bloomberg radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ." ♪ >> we are setting ourselves up for a relapse in early 2021. >> we have done a good job of clawing back the vast majority of job losses right now. >> the environment of high returns and low volatility of the last 10 years is really behind us. >> inflation is going to mean dollar weakness, not higher yield. >> the fed has been flatten the curve when history says we want a steeper curve. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone.

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