The shock of the president s tweet, after down 600 points on the dow, there were two followon tweets. Adjust too amend and the specificity of what he desires versus the senate. They want nothing, Senate Republicans, and Speaker Pelosi wants more omnibus legislation. Jonathan speaker mcconnell got on the phone to the president said that pelosi was leading them along, and that anything they agreed on would not pass in the senate. That is the story. The distance between mnuchin and Senate Republicans was bigger than the distance between mnuchin and house democrats. Those two tweets overnight, lets go through both of them. The idea that he agrees with chairman powell, sure. That is political posturing. The checks for everyday americans, that was in the skinny bill republicans produced in the senate that went nowhere a month ago. We are at square one, and we never really left. Tom at the bottom of the hour, Rudy Giuliani is joining us, a ille confidant of an president. The 30 year bond gets my attention. Jonathan up almost five basis points on the session, and looking out for a whole lot more fed speak later on. Lisa we are listening to the Federal Reserve governors to come out and give us something tangible. At 2 00 p. M. , we get those Meeting Minutes from the last meeting. Interesting if we see anything about those two dissenters. People wondering about the differing opinions on just how good or bad the u. S. Economy is. If there wasnt enough clarity, we get to hear from a panoply of Federal Reserve members. We get bostick, neel kashkari, rosengren, charlie evans. Tom jon ferro. [laughter] lisa i will say, there is growing emphasis on any potential bond purchases, interest rates, anything the fed can do as washington doesnt act. At 9 00 p. M. , we get that Vice President ial debate in salt lake city. Will it matter . Tom oh, come on. 74, 77. This Vice President will debate matters like it never has. I cant convey the importance of this debate to introduce these two in the discord of the leading candidates, if that was ever to happen. Jonathan most people agree with you, tom. That is the talk in europe, and i dont think many people watch the vp debate. They will be watching this one. Equity futures on the s p 500, wednesday morning, looking a Little Something like this. Futures up 0. 6 . D remember a guy called do you remember a guy called Phil Mattingly . He worked at cnn. If you are trading on tweets that have already been rejected, i dont know what to tell you at this point. 8 . The 10 year, 0. 7 tom i think mattingly sort of disappeared like the Cincinnati Reds did this year. Jonathan i just thought i would get that name in. Blast from the past. Now, headn joins us of research at the blackrock institute. How do you process those tweets overnight . Our assessment is to recover about 80 of the decline in consumption in the u. S. Post covet, but the next 20 we will need to get out of is crucial and harder. We think we are on a good track, on policy support continuing, and we start to be and we are starting to materialize the significant downside risk. Tom it is wonderful to have you with us today from ottawa, with your work on the bank of canada and particularly your work with ben bernanke at princeton years ago. You spoke about a data rich environment. Now asta matters right we link monetary and fiscal policy . Day, i think the. E were a lot more stable youve really got to get a lot more data. I think now we are dealing with a much bigger shock. The kind of work we were doing back then im not sure is that appropriate. It is much bigger in nature, what were are dealing with here. So you go back to the basics. I think it is really about activity. You need to get a handle on things like mobility, to get a handle on where activity is going. I think the fiscal story is huge. To us, it is the most important story going forward, both in agreementhe risk of happening, but also postelection, we can cease in areas that would be meaningfully different in terms of how much fiscal boost you are getting. We are talking many Percentage Points of gdp. Lisa this is the conundrum many people have. They are not inspecting fiscal stimulus, and in the meantime, the Federal Reserve could increase asset purchases and try to offset any slow down, at least in asset prices. Do you buy that story, that asset prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, regardless of the fundamental economy, simply because of said intervention because of fed intervention . Jean it is getting riskier. We are of the view that as long as the restart will continue, we think it is going to take a while. Youre not back to precovid , 2022. Mid 2021 if we start to question whether the fiscal side is in place, i is some relief that can come from the fed, but that would be upsetting. I dont think we will be replacing. As a result, i think we are facing a bit more of a risk now. Size of the the fiscal stimulus, the outright government aid as a percent of gdp that we are going to need . Could it be as high as 5 or 6 . Estimatesrding to any , without the fiscal boost we 2020, that gives you a bit of a sense of the big rolet has been playing. We have a gap that needs to be filled that is of a similar order of magnitude over the next few months. But we are talking about some of on the democratic side versus the republican side. The gap between those plans ,ould be in the order of 2 , 3 4 , 5 of gdp. To respond toed covid, but in terms of the shift towards a greener economy and out of the spending that could be coming with this, we used to be debating about 0. 5 of gdp. We are now talking about 5 of gdp. Lisa if you said this is getting riskier at this point given a lack of fiscal support, do you trade this or simply look past this to january 20, if there is a new administration, and any kind of fiscal spending then . Jean we will need to see. So far, the news flow and the is beingd everything digested. If we were to be in a world where there is no fiscal toeement, and that takes us some measure being taken in early 2021, i think it would be a Material Change to our outlook, and as a result, we would need to revise some of our views on u. S. Equities, for instance. Tom blackrock brought out the heavy guns almost a year ago to the day, with a guy named , you as well,r and you talked about policy coordination. What would be the catalyst now to get to that policy coordination . Jean i think weve crossed the rubicon in many ways already. In our view, what we have seen in 2020 is nothing short of a policy revolution. Fed facilities, the Corporate Bond facility for instance, are already a form of coordination between fiscal and Monetary Policy. , with theing forward massive increase in debt we have seen and that was required, there will be forced coordination in any case because when the time comes to start thinking about normalizing calculus of thinking about the debt servicing costs that this implies will be pretty real. Is a less tangible fear of inflation. Ing carefulead to be in raising rates to avoid sparking fears on the debt side. That is already coordination in action. We think we are already in a new world. Jonathan fantastic to get you on the program to kick things off this morning. Earlier on the program, questioning the handoff from monetary to fiscal. Where is that Recovery Fund . Still not deployed. In the u. K. , rishi sunak pulling back a little bit. In the United States, no agreement. Tom theres no question about it. Call it what you want. The fact is, it is evident country to country. Up on thecoming program, lawyer to President Trump and former mayor of new york city Rudy Giuliani, right here on bloomberg. Heard on Bloomberg Radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. President trump stunned his Campaign Advisors and allies in congress by halting talks on a new stimulus package. That could settle him with the blame for more layoffs and market losses in the weeks before the election. Blamingans had been House Speaker nancy pelosi for asking too much from negotiations. Aideserg has learned is dont want him to leave the white house residence, where he has been in isolation since monday. His doctors say he reported no symptoms of coronavirus his first night back. Tonight is the Vice President ial debate in select city. In salt lake city. Vice president pences team has agreed to allow plexiglass barriers. Earlier, his team argued that it was not necessary. Hurricane delta has come on tour in moscow in mexico. It is threatening to cause 16 billion in losses. Is forecast to move across the gulf of mexico before coming on tour in louisiana saturday. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Mr. Biden i think if he still has covid, we shouldnt have a debate. By the way, i think we are going to have to follow very strict guidelines. Too many people have been infected. Jonathan that was joe biden biden, the democratic president ial candidate, looking ahead to october 15 in miami, florida, the next scheduled debate, with the emphasis on scheduled. Looking ahead to the opening bell about two hours and 12 minutes away, with equity futures bouncing back after yesterday. We advance 0. 6 . In the bond market, yields higher by four basis points to 0. 77 . We have been playing one game over the last couple of weeks, headline roulette around fiscal talks. The reality is as we start to play the blame game in washington as to why this fell apart, the headlines across the bloomberg. Wells fargo eliminating more than 700 jobs in commercial banking. We have seen the job losses pile up. That is why the talks down in d. C. Matter so much. It is not just a blame game ahead of the election. It is real. Tom under the radar yesterday, the adult survey really wasnt all that nasty the jolt survey really wasnt all that good. It indicates a trend toward and perhapsloyment a gaining unemployment as well. Right now, Kevin Cirilli in salt lake city. We welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio in utah, of course, on sirius xm channel 119 and all the rest. I want to focus on the former governor of indiana. He has to deal tonight with the cacophony of his boss and his party in washington. How does the Vice President adapt and adjust to the zoo back in washington . Then kevin he has to own response of covid19 from the administration. He was leading the effort within the president s inner circle as it relates to covid19. Beyond that, it is also an opportunity to speak to the conservative base, which was largely why he was chosen to complete this ticket for President Trump. It comes at a time in which, here in utah, senator mike lee, a republican, is also recovering from covid19, a member of the judiciary committee. With regards to judge amy coney barrett, Vice President mike pence is going to be talking about it in a state that is going to be wellreceived received. However, senator kamala harris, in many ways now the future of the democratic party, is willing and ready to draw a sharp contrast in what many are calling one of the most important Vice President for debates we have seen. Tom without question, it is the most important Vice President will debate ever, just because of the age of the candidates. , is is so important here the Vice President giving up going to the middle ground, going to the marginal voter, and is only going to talk to that base . Kevin it is not just the base, a specific point of that base. He wants to speak to those conservatives who are a bit put off by the rhetoric in the fiery nature of President Trump. Senator harris has to motivate the base and rally the support of the democrats, who are questioning whether or not joe biden is one of them as it relates to economic policy, social injustice, and that he would be willing to be that bridge president in terms of unifying the democratic party. And democraticn strategist i have spoken with tells me this is a foreshadowing potentially of a match four years from now. You cannot talk about president ial politics in america for either party unless you are talking about Vice President pence or senator harris. Jonathan lets get to the main question, then. Is this a debate between two future president ial candidates, or between two people protecting the top of the ticket . Kevin i would say it is both. We have seen the political jabs going and forth. They will have plexiglass, standing an additional three feet apart. Based upon my reporting, senator harris is going to be accompanied by mary p judy judge mayor pete buttigieg, as well as mayor eric garcetti. , Vice President pence meeting with the republican governor here. This is a state where trump is leading by 10 , according to the polls. But go outside of utah, and there is no question that biden has the upper hand. It is a bit tighter and some of the swing states. Lisa between storm from president the tweet storm from President Trump, the collapse of fiscal talks, what is it like in all of this . Kevin confusion in the of leadership. First and foremost, this now provides somewhat of a timetable certainty for when the deal is coming. In the lameduck, at least. Then the question becomes, where the be becomes, will there be another round of stimulus in the First Quarter of 2021 . It is not a question of when anymore, but how much. If the democrats take control, theres going to be an increased amount of stimulus that is on the way. , weddition to the stimulus should also know that he did weigh in on the tech story as it relates to section 230. That is another dynamic i think that investors should be watching, especially as there does appear to be small Common Ground coming from the antitrust subcommittee in the house of representatives. Jonathan we will try and talk about that a little later. Just a final word on Senate Majority leader mitch mcconnell. Is that he was running the show yesterday . Of theyes, in terms dynamics as it relates to not only fiscal stimulus, but to the Supreme Court. , think that without question fiscal stimulus is now punted into the lameduck. The path is still full steam ahead for judge Amy Coney Barretts nomination process. Jonathan great to catch up, as always. Kevin cirilli there come a bloomberg washington correspondent. It has been so quiet for the last several weeks. Leader mcconnell stood up to be counted yesterday, and isaac many people might argue hes about to get what he wants and i think many people may argue hes about to get what he wants. Tom any number of pundits are calculating. I said earlier this morning, what are we going to get, another 3, 4, 5 polls today . The senator will have to recalibrate. Jonathan i agree with you, but for leader mcconnell, the priority i think is pretty clear. That is the Supreme Court justice vacancy, not the fiscal stimulus plan. I think it revealed itself yesterday. That just became very clear. Tom and again, the morning is young. We are waiting for the president s first tweets, assuming he will. It is 7 25 a. M. Wall street time. No one is awake in washington. Jonathan the president might be. Equities up 19 on the s p 500. We advanced 0. 6 . Darting around all over the place on the headlines around fiscal talks. Lets get to the bond market for you. We awake this week in treasuries. Yields higher on the 10 year. The focus very much in washington, d. C. Markets rbc kveta Rbc Capital Markets chief economist for sally chief economist tom porcelli. This is bloomberg. Are you frustrated with your weight and health . Its time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. announcer aerotrainers ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. Do the aerotrainer super crunch. The prestretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. Then its the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. Planks are the ultimate total body exercise. Build your upper body with pushups. Work your lower body with the aerosquat. The aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. It inflates and deflates in less than 30 seconds using the electric pump. Head to aerotrainer. Com now. Now its your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. Get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. Go to aerotrainer. Com, thats aerotrainer. Com. Jonathan from new york and london, this is bloomberg surveillance. ,ive on bloomberg tv and radio you are listening to bloomberg. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Equity futures shaping up as follows this wednesday morning. We drift higher on the s p, up 0. 6 . In the bond market, up four points on the u. S. Tenyear to 0. 7735 . Aggressively cutting the growth for forecast the growth forecast in france, and that speaks to europe really going into the back half of the year. Tom Lisa Abramowicz mentioned the 700 bodies out at wells fargo. This is crushing news, and crisis out of england. You a