London. We had that surprising news, a lot of it on how it could up into the markets Going Forward into the november 3 election day. Now, we still know very little about the symptoms, if any, that President Trump has, so that gives us a little indication of what will happen next. I suppose we could see him stop campaigning for the next two weeks if not longer. It could also have an implication for the ballot if something were to escalate. Canpean stocks down, you see s p futures also down, and then vix, one of the measures we look at for volatility, is gaining as the market trying to recalibrate exactly what that means. Now lets get more on the markets with dani burger. Hi, dani. Dani good morning, francine. We see this reaction starting with a gut punch, starting to bleed into the red for the rest of the day. Yes, u. S. Futures are lower, but interestingly, what is doing worse right now are russian assets. The russian stock index down more than 2 , the ruble down more than 1 . Yesterday, sab, before this news, said that a biden win would be negative for the ruble, because a biden presidency is seem to be less favorable for the country, so we are seeing them get that bit in now, but more than that, the question is what sort of volatility will this bring . Is it a time to move into havens . We see that, francine, the yen up 3 , other risk assets selling off in the meantime, brent crude and wti continuing to slide this morning. Bothwere down 2 , now of them down 3 , trading under a 40 a barrel. There is a question as what consequences this could have, the effect on the economy afterwards. I mentioned havens and volatility. We are seeing a move higher in the volatility space. Here is the october contract for the vix, if you want to get shortterm volatility protection. Initially when you get the news, you get the trades at a onemonth high. It is starting to ease of. He did not told me understand why things are selling also extremely right now. We still dont know enough details, so perhaps some of the sentiment you see there are coming off the markets, but i talks to another Foreign Exchange derivatives strategist and trader who told me that his clients, they want protection ,ight now, they want volatility exuberant volatilities, are the words he used, and they will take it where they can get it. Here is the u. S. Dollar yen in one week, volatility. You can see this likewise had a very large pop at the start here, but this is what i will say yes, we get 1. 6 percent on his currency cross, but even over the past month, we have had a more extreme reaction. I think part of this right now is trying to digest the news, figuring out what it means and what it means for the polling markets, because that is one of the keys here, right . Should you use this right now to bet on who will become president . The last we saw for real clear politics, biden at 60, trump at florida, and now they are starting to move even further apart, francine. Dani, so much. Joining us now is sonia loud, chief investment manager at Legal General investment management. Have a previous chief at the u. S. Equities in london. We have so many questions, so little answers. What does it mean for what you want to buy today and how does it affect your portfolio . Sonja you are right, there is lots to digest. Lots of news around the virus. Economic development, and the market is really now trying to bring it all together. Obviously the last thing we need right now is politically uncertainty political uncertainty, so we have to wait and see how the trump situation develops and the expectation around the final weeks of campaigning and the president ial election. As we know, this has been on the backbone of the majority of that year, clear that it is now coming back with much greater impacts, and as such, i would not be surprised to see volatility continue. We just heard more protections to make sure that we are having, you know, a bit of dry powder around politics. We should not forget brexit is on the agenda as well, and i am sure it will feature some. Lew, for the majority of people, you stay healthy, but you are uncomfortable for two or three weeks. For the unlucky, it gets more severe. How does this impact campaigning . How does this impact voting . those are great questions, and as your guest said, this is uncharted territory here. If President Trump is able to quarantine for a couple of weeks and recover and hit the campaign trail again, i think this will have minimal effect on the president ial election and the race. He is more, incapacitated and certainly if he is incapacitated to the point that mike pence has to temporarily take over as president that will have huge implications on the election. I think either scenario probably works to the benefit of joe biden, who as you noted is pulling well ahead of the polls anyway. I think President Trumps, you know, dismissiveness of the virus and sort of standard articles to protect against the virus will come back to haunt him, because now that he has it, it sort of takes away one of his big talking points that the democrats have overreacted to the virus. So, you know, all of us wish the president well. This is a very unusual time in american political history to have the american president with a potentially very serious illness at any time, let alone this close to an election. The next debate will be canceled, because that is within the quarantine period, so we know for sure that they will not be a debate on the 15th of october, and the president will have to stop campaigning for a couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what the biden camp does, as Vice President does Vice President biden also take a break out of sympathy, or does he dial it back . A lot more will become clear is the day goes on. Francine lew, if the couple and his family remain healthy, does it impact the polls, because he has been somewhat dispenses of this pandemic dismissive of this pandemic in the past, and it will bring back the spotlight on covid19 . Lew i think, you know, my sense of the poses there are so few undecided voters in america at this point. For percent or 6 of american eligible voters are still undecided, so it is a very small pool of people who might change their mind at this point because and hisresidents recovery. So we dont see this having a big impact on the polls. I think most voters in america have decided to do over one million americans have already voted man americans are voting at really high rates right now in early voting. I think it is the window to sort attractck undecided undecided and swing voters is closing if not already closed. Francine what is the one thing, lew, you think could change . Does it make it more likely that it could, you know, even tighten the race further . Lew if President Trump recovers and gets back on the campaign trail into weeks, we get back to where we were yesterday, which is jill biden in a very comfortable lead, leading in most of the joe biden in aiken very comfortable lead, leading in most of the substantial, and a victory. If the president is forced to drop out of the race, for any reason, and mike pence then becomes the candidate, that, i think, would shakeup the dynamics and lead to a closer race. I still think joe biden would win, just because given the amount of time that is left before the election, but certainly having a new candidate on the republican side would change the dynamics pretty drastically. In terms ofnja, Market Reaction, are you expecting more volatility in the days and weeks to come . Are you, you know, looking at havens like dollar and yen that you think markets will pylon to . Sonja i think we have to assume the volatility will be here to stay, and i think everything that was just said makes a lot of sense, and it is very clear that the closer we get to the election date and the more it appears that biden will win, obviously the market will start focusing on the main kind of Campaign Action points. Particularplans in that i believe will have an impact on equity markets and that has obviously been a part of the campaign since the beginning, but it is not really reflected on the markets yet, and i think the closer we come to the dates, the more we move into the center of the tension. It is about obviously this point section and potentially looking profile portfolio. I think it is fair to say that the political side is really adding to the concerns markets had over the health of the economy, whether we will get the latest labor market statistics, but it is very clear that there is much greater attention to the longterm economic scarring that is resulting from the pandemic. And actually the political stories adding on top of this. But i wouldve thought that most investors will have started to reconsider risk a long time ago. Lew mentioneda, there is a small possibility but still a possibility if President Trump becomes very ill, that he will have to become a place on the ballot. Is it something that the market is currently pricing in . Is it something that they are thinking about . Sonja i think this is too early. I mean, we have to see the news flow, obviously, only appeared overnight, and as such, we will have a look at how markets are reacting today. I am sure the market will not try to price in that is not supported by the health of the u. S. President , and obviously that would only emerge over the next couple of days. If that were the case, i think we would have to assume that markets will react to and volatility, again, once more will go up. Francine and we have to be of course very careful about what we say and we speculate on, but, you know, worst case scenario, what exactly happens to the u. S. Election . Does it still go ahead november 3 . If the president is not fit to be on the ballot, what happens . Lew the election will go ahead. If the president were unable to be on the ballot, the Republican Party would the Republican National committee would pick a new ticket, and they would almost certainly pick mike pence, Vice President pence, to be the president ial candidate, and then they would pick somebody else to be the president , so it would be to be the Vice President , so it would be a dramatic shift of the ticket. This close to the election just over four weeks away at this point i think it is unlikely to change the outcome, and i think former Vice President biden would still, you know, win the election. But that is the process. The Republican National committee would pick a new candidate, and almost certainly pick mike pence to be that candidate. Happens lew, so what to the people who have already voted by mailin . I think there are already over one million of them. Lew every state has different rules and processes, and my understanding is most of the states the party that the person voted for would still get the vote, so if a voter had voted for the trumppence ticket, and then between now and the election, that becomes a pence, you know, nikki haley ticket, they would still get that persons vote. Do you think this is speculation at the moment, because we do not know how the president is feeling or the symptoms he has, if, indeed, he has. Ticket be pencehaley most likely . It really changes the debate dynamic between the Vice President s coming up. Thatit does, and i assume the debate we will continue next week with the Vice President. Look, a pencehaley ticket would definitely change the ticket, and i think a lot of suburban women who have been leaving the Republican Party and Trump Supporters for years ago who have switched their allegiance to joe biden at this point might consider a woman Vice President under a republican ticket, so there are lots of ways that this could change the dynamic of the race. This is also hypothetical pure event pick would not necessarily be nikki haley, but certainly she would be in the running and would be interested in it. But i think there are so many different ways this could go, so the speculation is a little bit fruitless at a certain point, and, as you said, i think we would see over the next week or so how seriously the president has this disease. He certainly seemed healthy and fit this week, so i think we will have to sort of watch that and see how his medical condition progresses, but if he really is incapacitated, and there is a new ticket on the public inside on the republican side, it will tighten the polls, tighten the race or does millie, but the race. Ultimately, i think joe biden wins the election. Francine how will we get updates . Will it be tweets by the president himself, or will it be a task force . Lew great question. Two things. I think we will certainly see tweets from the president , and i would not be surprised if he wakes up this morning and tweets that he is feeling great but he is isolated and still working hard. And i think the white house tokesperson will be forced do if not daily, i mean, more than daily regular briefings to the press corps with updates on the president s condition, so i think we will start to see those happening. She has been fairly regularly talking to the press anyway, but i think we will start to see an uptick in the frequency of press readings from the white house, starting today press briefings from the white house, starting today. Francine thank you so much, lew lukens and sonia allowed s onja laud stays with the spirit we will talk about safe havens. Lets get to bloomberg first word news. Here is laura white. Laura wright. Laura extraordinary news President Trump has has a positive for covid19. He and the first lady have the virus and will isolate. It comes after a close aide, hope picks, tested positive. She traveled with the president to the Election Debate and the rally in minnesota. The president was a doctor says he expect President Trump to continue carrying out his duties without disruption. We expect First Lady Melania Trump will remain at the white house. Anyays he will update on developments. Responses are coming in on the News European CouncilPresident Shall michelle is wishing the president and first lady a speedy recovery. He says the pandemic is a battle we will all continue to fight. There has also been an unofficial response in china from the editor of the communist party mouthpiece, the global is payinghe president the price for his downplaying out of the pandemic. Likely makeult will it harder for the president to shift the campaign away from the virus to other campaign topics, such as a racial unrest across the country. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine laura, thank you so much. Now, President Trumps physician says he expect them to continue his duties without disruption. The diagnosis, regardless, throws a new wrench into an already chaotic election. Covid19 has been especially risky for men, the elderly, and those who are overweight. Joining us now is Bloomberg Intelligence director of research, samp is only sam fazeli. We found out the president tested positive. What kind of issues are we seeing from the white house right now . Hi, francine p obviously, the president is in an age group, mass index group, lets put it that way, that increases his risk of severe covid disease and totality from infection. But those are not the only drivers of how this can pan out. Your initial viral load, the amount of socalled virium, and um,lar, all these innocul all these different words, the amount that you breathed in our major deterrence to how quickly your immune system can respond to it. Have is a lot, then you a higher risk of suffering than if it were lower, which is why masks work. Those are variables we just do not know. We do know he is in the age group that has a higher risk of 5 , 10 , depending on which estimates read of fatality. But then of course the viral load is key also. Francine we know president bolsonaro of brazil tested positive. Boris johnson in the u. K. Tested positive, and he was also in the icu for a couple of days. If you look at Silvio Berlusconi , he also tested positive and recovered. Do we know why, you know, some people react better than others, and, you know, how much does it make a difference that he is president of the United States and would be getting the best care and attention in the world . Sam i am sure, francine, that that makes a difference, because, you know, he will immediately be under the best possible care, given drugs that we now know reduce the risk of how long you have to be potentially inhospital, etc. So at the time when Boris Johnson tested positive, we did not have any of that. Now, i am, obviously, jessica for videos, you hope that no like being just everybody else, you hope that no human being succumbs to this, but the current therapy is a lot better than it was six months ago, and the president will, i am sure, receive the best care possible. But your immune system decides, eventually, how bad the reaction is. Francine thank you so much, bloomberg director of research, sam fazeli. Cios go back to sonja laud, of Legal General investment management. When you heard the news, what was your first point of call . Was it actually we will add volatility and say on volatility . Or are there any havens that you think could actually help you right now . Sonja no, i think for the time being it seems a bit early to tell. As your colleague sam just highlighted, we have had a number of head of states that have contracted the virus, and Boris Johnsons experience has probably been different from some of the others. If that experience happened to President Trump shortly before the election, it woul