particularly for tech and tech advances. desperatelys a calm looking for news flow on the pandemic, and let's not forget the lack of stimulus in washington is just stunning. it is almost hard to believe we are here in the middle of september. comparehink we have to the selloff. the character was different. this wasn't about big tech. industrials,als, materials, energy. that's where the price action was over the last one he four hours. tom: we are focused on prime minister johnson. comments soon, and then a speech tonight to you and the nation at 8:00 p.m. i've got to go to the pub closing at 10:00 p.m. can you expend the difference between a pub closing and someone getting the virus at 9:00 p.m. versus the usual midnight? [laughter] jonathan: no i cannot, and the prime minister will have to explain that. i am not sure he will even try. i think the big issue for many people is just capacity. if you have a problem with people going out and mixing too much, then address capacity. if that is an industry that needs to do eight, let's do something on fiscal. this is just ill thought out. every politician hates the headline being printed after they speak with the term "you turn," but this is a monster u-turn with this government. now they are telling some people to stay at home. tom: we aim to please on bloomberg television and radio. lisa, it is very important to understand that on pubs, we have ferro etiquette because you and i are lost in a united kingdom pub. guinness is always ordered first. explain why guinness is always ordered first. . jonathan: i don't know. i just start with a pint of guinness, and gradually get stronger as the night progresses. heavy drink to start with, though. don't know why we are doing this at 7:03, but we are. also, the chairman of the federal reserve is speaking later. we are goingisa: to be hearing from fed chair jay powell, as well as treasury secretary steven mnuchin, testifying in front of the house financial services panel. very interesting to see their focus on fiscal support. where is it? the mood seems to be shifting to perhaps it is not needed, with even st. louis fed president jim bullard saying to kathleen hays yesterday that without it, momentum could continue. this debate is heated even within the federal reserve. tom: this is really important. you know what? it got cold in new york city, and the restaurants are in a total panic over it. that is what the tipping point is here on small businesses right now. lisa at least finish the day ahead? lisa: thank you. the day ahead is full of washington, d.c. muddle. the house is considering a stopgap funding bill. now we have the concern of a possible shutdown at the end of a build notecause include $30 billion of farm funding, setting up a battle. also, republican senators setting up the timeframe for the replacement of justice ginsburg. again, washington dysfunction sucking the oxygen out of the room, raising even more questions at a time when the pass of the virus is still so unclear. jonathan: now we've done the day ahead. leslie into the fed. here's the story for me -- let's lean into the fed. here's the story for me. it is one of the most underappreciated things about any central banker. when the central bank governors speaks, if it is the fed chair, the bank of england governor, the ecb president, when they have to represent the committee, they have to try and reflect some kind of consensus. quite clearly, the fed right now, there isn't one. chairman powell, how money times did he say we debar fiscal action? then you have president bullard in the last 24 hours saying maybe we don't need it. that is the problem with the fed. when you have all of the presidents saying different things in the chair is trying to stay on acing the message. tom: there's time here, and bullard is one voice. we heard from mr. kaplan of dallas yesterday. i am just going to go to this aggregate demand. you are going to do day data check. oil, $39.94. the headline on libor is really a moment, when you go back to august of 2007, with three month libor coming down to a new record low. is this a big deal? no. but does it give me a little bit of a historical moment? yes. jonathan: equity futures are doing ok, positive two points on the s&p 500, advancing about 0.1%. we've had a cap lower in equities, led by the cyclicals. your yield, 0.67 percent on the 10 year. foreign-exchange, just a little bit of euro weakness just to get. -- euro weakness once again. joining us now on the price action, tony dwyer, canaccord genuity equity strategist. many people trying to play politics in this market right now. convince them they shouldn't. tony: how do you guess? we don't know how people are going to vote yet. it is kind of 50-50. we know biden is in the lead, but we know not to trust the polls from the last election. we don't know what the application of the supreme court nominee is going to be. we don't know if they are going to have the senate, if the democrats are going to have both the white house and the senate. i just don't think it is an investable event. but you do have hesitance towards buying. but i don't think it is possible. it would just be an unadulterated guess at this point to say i think x is going to win ends this is going to .appen history shows that when you have a significant equity market decline in the end of september into october, it usually means, according to the chart i use, that the incumbent loses. so i think the market is going to be a better tell over the next month than any pundits. tom: your charm is to say we need a recession for a down market. do you see a recession? tony: no. remember what creates a recession. a recession comes when you have a need for money and limited or no access to the money. we have a historic amount of access to liquidity. we have the worst of the recession in the rearview mirror , as we shut down the economy. we have a synchronized global recovery. is it perfect and ramping? no. i wish everybody was employed, and every small business was doing great. evene are still having, though it is not perfect, a synchronized global recovery, according to all of the data. when you combine historic excess liquidity and a synchronized global recovery, the only time i have seen the data kind of like it is is in the fall of 2009, which, as you guys know, i have been writing about the concept of corrections like the fall of 2009. you had four corrections between 3% and 7% over the course of a month to a month and a half after the first 50% move, and the recession was just beginning to abate and recover. this given that thesis, is the time to double down on cyclicals, which underperformed yesterday in this new type of selloff we are seeing in response to no fiscal deal down in washington? tony: it's a great question. yes is the answer. i would double down, that is an individual question, so i can't answer that for anybody. when you are down almost 10% in the s&p 500 and almost double that in the mega cap names, don't forget that the cyclicals ng theo outperformi nasdaq mega cap stay-at-home names. so clearly there was a bounce towards the end of the day. you have really taken apart the faang stocks. they are back to where they were in may. so the idea that kind of took a ago, doncome for months not chase that into advocate taking some off the table and into cyclicals, to some degree that has been neutralized by the total drumming in that space. these are good companies. they are not horrible companies. they have just gone up into the right tranche. jonathan: do you cs putting together that kind of run again? --tony: i don't think you can have that kind of run again in indices. every time you have one of those corrections, you bounceback to a new high, almost to immediately have another correction. there is so much uncertainty there. i think the idea that we have this incredible parabolic move higher in five or six names, i thought it was really incredible. it really took me by surprise that five companies represented 35%, and actually at the time, 37% of gross. that is so far from diversification, it is extraordinary. it is going to take time for these mega cap names to correct c,hurn consolidate -- to correct, churn, consolidate. as they rally, all of the people that bought them are looking to probably cut their losses, which means you are going to have some resistances. the market will be in this phase through the end of the year. jonathan: tony, appreciate the honesty as always. good to see you. tom keene, i misunderstood the question of the top of the show around drinking. you go to guinness first as a barman because it takes two minutes to pour the perfect point of guinness, which is why the comedy will tell you good things come to those who wait -- the company will tell you good things come to those who wait. tom: there we go. adding value every morning. jonathan: i thought you were talking about when we would get a trick together -- a drink together and start with the guinness. tom: couldn't get one. ♪ with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate republicans are moving quickly to set their strategy for confirming whoever president trump taps to fill the vacancy on the supreme court. south dakota republican senator john thune says gop leaders will likely decide today on their timing for a confirmation vote, hoping to get it done before election day. bloomberg has learned trump is leaning toward nominating federal appellate court judge amy coney barrett to replace ruth bader ginsburg. the u.k. government is telling the public to work from home if possible. british prime minister boris johnson plans to announce new restrictions on social interaction today. the government is trying to slow the spread of covid-19 before it spirals out of control. cabinet minister michael gove says public restaurants will be ordered to close at 10:00 p.m. india reporting more than 75,000 new cases of covid-19 in the past 24 hours, and more than 1000 deaths. millions more than 5.5 cases, behind only the united states and the number of confirmed infections. the country's death toll is nearly 89,000. the virus is surging in several areas of india. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ sen. mcconnell: there was clear precedent hundred predictable outcome that came out of 2016, and even more resident behind the fact that this senate will vote on this nomination this year. jonathan: that was mitch mcconnell, the senate majority repeated clashhe between republicans and democrats over the vacancy of the supreme court left behind by the late supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg. that's the response from the republicans, and that will be the message as we go through the week ahead, rattling markets as it looks like it is going to be very difficult to put a fiscal package together. here's the price action this morning. equity futures advancing eight points. we advance 0.25%. it was ugly this time yesterday. now we've bounced back. in the yield market, up to 0.67%. in foreign exchange, just a little bit of dollar strength out there. $1.1760.ar, crude at a $39 handle at $39.60. tom: sterling is elegantly weaker right now. is there a belief from all of your contacts in pubs at 9:58 p.m. that sterling could be demonstrably weaker? jonathan: that's when you will get the good south side calls, tom. [laughter] without a doubt. in fact, maybe some really good calls on sterling. i think there are three issues right now with sterling. issue number one is what happens around the economy. number two is a broader risk off theme. issue number three is debated this morning around government interest rates. last week it was teed up in a more relative way. governor bailey this morning indicating that it could take a while to have techno discussions -- to have technical discussions around negative rates. cable bouncing back, positive on the session. tom: let's get right to it now in washington. tuning in, never closing down at 10:00 p.m. kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. what are you looking for today from senator mcconnell and leadership? -- and the democrat leadership? kevin: i don't think there will be any surprises. they will continue to move forward with confirmation hearings for whoever president trump nominates for the supreme court. leader mcconnell has been very clear on this. he feels that because americans elected a senate republik and majority, elected a republican to the white house, that this is part of why they were elected. let the hypocrisy argument be forgotten. they don't care. what they do care about is getting a republican on the supreme court. the biggest unknown, will that process, in a lame-duck session, or will it actually happened before the november 3 election? secondly, will this drown out all of the oxygen in the room for their being fiscal stimulus or fiscal support packages that move through congress? tom: let's talk about that. is there any stimulus talk? we are hearing axios leads with it today, this new desperation. kevin: precisely. the moderates have begun to revolt. this is pre-the passing of our bg -- of rbg. we should note, speaker pelosi is under a lot of political pressure because she has to figure out a way to running out the clock across the chamber in terms of the senate with the supreme court, but also now facing pressure from down ballot races that they don't want to have to end with a government shutdown or with lack of fiscal support coming from washington, d.c. these down ballot races in congress, they need stimulus in order to get for reelection. lisa: we are talking about stimulus, or fiscal support. fed chair jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin will head to the house at 10:30 a.m. to discuss this. in the meantime, at the very same time, attorney general bill barr saying he wants to defund portland, seattle, and new york city because he called them "anarchist jurisdictions." how realistic is this? kevin: look, we are in political season. i think attorney general barr is without question in political season. i don't want to conflict stories, but the uncertainty coming out of the nation's capital, whether it is the supreme court, fiscal stimulus, funding for various community responses, including police, keeping the government open, there is so much volatility out of the beltway, and to be blunt, when i talk to staffers on both sides of the aisle, they don't know what today is going to bring. they are all saying that they hope to have some more clarity within the next five days. typically in an election year, less than a week until the debate, typically washington is dead, but it is anything but dead right now. the confluence of all of these uncertainties is really unprecedented. lisa: washington, d.c. is known as dysfunctional. is this different? kevin: it is. -- first andrms of foremost, a lot of investors have traded off of the uncertainty coming out of washington for quite some time. a divided government usually to some extent would mean stability. right now it is the uncertainty in the short-term is just so incredible, when you look at whether or not, for example, there would be a full bench for the november 3 elections, when mail-in ballots are going to be such a crucial event. if it seems sporadic, tom always tells me, don't conflict stories. all of these stories are on a collision course. that is what makes it difficult to track. tom: i can't find what anarchist jurisdiction means. like somethingt from the 18th-century? kevin: it means we are seeing a foreshadowing of president trump's debate strategy. tom: i don't disagree with that at all. let's be clear here. it is an original phrase, right? kevin: exactly. there's a reuters poll that just came out within the last 24 hours that has joe biden leading in wisconsin by about 5% to 6%, leading in pennsylvania by 3%, and now the attacks are sharpening. tom: i thought anarchist jurisdiction, they played the clash like nobody. [laughter] jonathan: let me tell you, this program, every morning at 7:03, this is anarchy. good to see you, mate. kevin cirilli down in washington, d.c. there is no script for this show. i think everyone is aware this is completely unscripted. tom: 40 something days to go, and i think it is going to be fascinating. kevin cirilli working huge hours with david westin. is it crazier in the united kingdom? to say it is,ve on several fronts, just as crazy. the moment the united states is in right now is incredibly sense of, but right now the u.k., a deeperarly, there is understanding by the government now that they need to do something as we go deeper into the end of the year. the prime minister set to speak in around five minutes, addressing the house of commons. then we will hear from the prime minister at 8:00 p.m. local, three :00 p.m. eastern, addressing the united kingdom. expecting to hear what further restrictions will be laid down on this economy. in morning tea wall. -- good morning tea wall. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 500.25% on the s&p heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning tea wall. -- good morning to you while. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action come across asset, worldwide. bouncing back a little bit after an ugly session to kick off the trading week. equity futures up 10 on the s&p. -- weanced 0.3 advance 0.3%. we just can't get out of that middle range on the 10 year treasury. , $1.1757.o-dollar any moment now, prime minister boris johnson confronting the house of commons, perhaps unveiling the new strategy of this government to confront the covid risks that have been intensifying over the last several weeks. we heard from michael gove of the cabinet, saying a little earlier on british tv that they would be pushing for people to work from home if they could work from home. it is the detail and the clarity we are lacking here. then addressing the nation at eight a clock p.m. local this evening -- at 8:00 p.m. local this evening. tom: tell us how labour fits into this if it is truly a majority government. jonathan: we have a more viable opposition under keir starmer. that is the difference here. i think this government should feel threatened by the opposition in a way that maybe it wasn't before. what you will hear from keir starmer, he will tell you he will support the effort to put renewed restrictions on this economy, as we heard from the london mayor sadiq khan, but there will be could assist them about the way they handle this, and quite rightly criticism of this summer, pushing things too far too quickly. it is the contradictory message that we have received from this government. it seems odd for many people that just a few months after launching a program to subsidize and intensifies -- and incentivize people to go out and eat and drink more, a few months later they will be curtailing that effort by putting a new closing time on pubs across the u.k.. there's a huge variance in cases. -- is the kingdom united kingdom uniformly afraid of this second wave, or is it regions of the united kingdom? jonathan: i can only talk from my own personal experience, and people can decide whatever that is worth to them at home. is a veryound london different experience to walking around new york city. in new york city, you have a very ugly look reserved for someone who is not wearing a mask. i can tell you from experience, i have been into many stores in london where even the people working in those stores are not wearing a mask. unlike the united states, it is not politicized in the same way, but there seems to be a more cavalier attitude in the u.k. that i did not experience a new york over the summer. tom: jon ferro in london, lisa abramowicz and tom keene in new york. thrilled you are with us. we await the headlines from the prime minister of the united kingdom. right, mark mccormick monitoring pound sterling with td bank. is there a way to play sterling off of this news? mark: i think you want to look at the relative tightness of the lockdown indicators. we have the oxford index, a great proxy for how restrictive the government measures are. we also have the g10 mobility data. if you look at those things, the u.k. relative lockdown has been tighter than most major countries in the g10, which obviously has strong growth implications. i think the bias here is we get a little bit of a stronger rally. the market is not nearly as long cable as it is euro, and our other models show there's not much we discount and sterling that we had in place over the last few weeks. i would say it is trading where it should. if we do see a stronger dollar, cable could be inflated. i do think if you look at this on terms of negative interest rates, twin deficits, relative lockdown, economic weakness, it is still likely to be one of the laggards in the european currency complex. lisa: the bank of england does appear to be setting the stage to take rates negative. as kit juckes said this morning, he would not buy sterling because it is a monetary race to the bottom and the bank of england has more to go. do you foresee a further move weaker versus the dollar should the bank of england go through with negative rates? mark: i think it is a knee-jerk move, but every major central bank is moving in the same direction. i would argue that you should really stop focusing on central bank for g10 currency movements because we can see the delta moving in a direction that would move one currency versus the other, but in general, they are all doing the same thing. i think what matters is the lockdown trend, the mobility, even equity. the point i would argue is i wouldn't expect too much of a knee-jerk move in cable lower on the negative interest rate story , but i think if you wanted to play it, you look at sterling swiss or eurosterling, it is probably a better way to play that. if they moved negative, eurosterling back above $.90 is probably your best trade idea if they were to do that, but i don't think cable has got a ton of room on the downside. maybe 1% or 2%. jonathan:jonathan: this market got a stress test to kick off the week, and how did it play out? it keeps happening. is it going to change? mark: i don't think it is going to change. i think what people are confused about is why it happened now. you can see if you look at the global infection curve for covid, it has been rising since august. there's been a lot of variance across different countries. eurozone was the leader at one point, asia the leader at some point. eventually, the global infection curve is rising, but the good news is the mortality curve per capita is declining. the fact that markets focus on covid right now is a little bit of a messy story. i think a lot of it has to do with people focused on how governments will react to covid, and i think what we know is that government for the most part has erred on the side of caution, which i thick is a reason why the market is taking some chips off the table. the last thing i would add is we have more volatility. we are basically in the prime window where volatility starts to rise ahead of this election. you have that, the fact that we are going back to school. for a lot of people, it is very challenging getting their kids back to school. i thick a lot of this is just taking these overpopulated beams and pushing us in a direction where the dollar is a little bit stronger and we are coming off. jonathan:jonathan: mark, we need to cross over to the house of commons in london to hear from the british prime minister on the new restrictions they are unveiling today to constrain the virus in the united kingdom. here is the prime minister. pm johnson: -- and many other countries, we have reached a perilous turning point. a month ago on average, around 1000 people in the u.k. were testing positive for coronavirus everyday. the latest figures almost .uadrupled yesterday, the chief medical officer and chief scientific advisor warned that the doubling rate for new cases could be between seven and 20 days, with the possibility of tens of thousands of new infections next month. i wish i could reassure the house that the growing number of cases is merely a function of more testing, but a rising proportion of the tests themselves are yielding a positive result. i also wish i could say that more of our people now have the antibodies that keep the virus off come up at latest data suggests that fewer than 8% of us are in this position. it is true that the number of new cases is growing fastest amongst those aged 20 to 29, but the evidence shows that the virus is spreading to other more vulnerable age groups as we have seen in france and spain, where this has led to increased hospital admission, and sadly, more deaths. in the last fortnight, daily hospital admissions in england have more than doubled. tens of thousands of daily infections in october would, as night follows day, lead to hundreds of deaths and those numbers would continue to grow unless we act. fasters likely to spread as autumn becomes winter. yesterday, on the advice of the chief medical officers, the u.k. covid alert level was raised from three to four, the second-most serious stage, meaning transition is high or rising exponentially. this is the moment when we must act. if we can curb the number of daily infections and reduce the reproduction rate to one, we can save lives and shelter the economy from the far sterner and more costly measures that would inevitably become necessary later on. so we are actually on the principal that a stitch in time saves nine. the government will introduce to restrictions in england achieve the maximum reduction in the number, with the minimum damage to lives and livelihoods. this is by no means a return to the full lockdown of march. we are not issuing general instructions to stay at home. we will ensure that schools, colleges and universities stay open. nothing is more important than the education, health, and well-being of our young people. we will ensure that businesses can say open and a covid complaint way. however, we must compress the disease. first, we are once again asking office workers who can work from home to do so. in key public services where home working is not possible, such as construction or retail, people should continue to attend their workplaces, and let government, this house will be free to take forward its business in a covid secure way, which you, mr. speaker, have pioneered. second, through thursday, all pubs, bars and restaurants must operate a table service only, except for takeaways. with all hospitality venues, they must close at 10:00 p.m. to help, i believe that means not just calling for lost orders because simplicity is paramount. the same would apply for takeaways, though deliveries can continue thereafter. i am sorry that this will affect many businesses just getting back on their feet, but we must stop the virus from being transmitted in bars and restaurants. third, we will extend the requirement to wear face coverings to include staff in retail, all users of taxis, and private hire vehicles, and staff and customers in indoor hospitality, except when seated at a table to eat or drink. ,n retail, leisure and tourism or covid secure guidelines will become legal obligations. visitors will be fined if they breach the rules. now is the time to tighten up the ruler sticks. from monday, and maximum of 15 ,eople will be able to attend though up to 30 can still attend a funeral as now. finally, we have to acknowledge that the spread of the virus is now affecting our ability to reopen business conferences, exhibit shims, and large sporting events. so we will not be able to do this from october 1, and recognize the applications for -- the implications. jonathan: that was the british prime minister addressing the house of commons. we will hear him addressing the nation a little later this evening. the headlines as follows. turning point for." the country this is not a return to a full lockdown. the message from the government, work from home if you can. restaurantsbs and must close at 10:00 p.m. that's not last orders. that is the closing time face masks will be required in more settings. these guidelines will become legal obligations. the british prime minister. tom: i would really focus outcome with all of these travails, it is amazing how much better it is then in the united states. jonathan: from london and new york, this is bloomberg. . ♪ pm johnson: -- more drastic action that we will innovatively be forced to take. jonathan: british prime minister boris johnson addressing the house of commons right now. that is a live picture for our viewers on bloomberg tv. for our listeners, you will hear from the prime minister at 8:00 p.m. local time. what we have heard so far, it perilous turning point for the country. this is not a return to the full lockdown. it is something the prime minister has repeated. as the prime minister points out, as autumn turns to winter, there are obvious reasons for concern. i think it is interesting to hear the prime ministers talking contain and to constrain transmission of the virus and protecting the economy. this is the message from the government right now. these are the measures. work from home if you can. pubs and hospitality venues must closr at 10:00 -- must close at 10:00 p.m. for wearing as mask, these rules will be enforced with tighter penalties and they will be required in more venues. something that has been widely reported in the last couple of days in the united kingdom, these new restrictions will last six months. set to be in place for six months. tom: i want to do one thing off of tim's murdoch's wonderful work at "the ft --off of james murdoch's wonderful work at "the ft." the united kingdom has reversed back 60 days statistically on a per capita basis. this is perfect timing, as we say on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television, this moment in the united kingdom as to what six months means for global wall street. there's no one better to do this then jonathan tice of bloomberg intelligence -- jonathan tyce of bloomberg intelligence. are the banks ready to go out to march of 2021? jonathan t: there's a big disparity between the banks that have and have not. , you'veook at barclays had huge volumes. they've been able to set more aside, more provisions. if you look in europe, the answer would be they are nowhere near and a strong a position. it is a sort of game of two ofves between the banks -- two halves between the banks. lisa: they are seeing lower net interest margin and they are not lending as much. why are they not lending? is it because the yields are so these further as restrictions get reimplemented and the virus spreads? jonathan t: it is absolutely the lack of visibility on credit quality. yes, we have seen a spike in q2 and loan volumes because you've got government guarantees. but those guarantees will rolloff. that is why we are seeing the chancellor considering trying to extend facilities because the banks will only lend if they have any idea how much they can get back. supposed to be bottoming this quarter probably, but it is another numerous quarters of pain. jonathan f: how dependent are some of these banks in the united kingdom on the chance to extend that furlough program? jonathan t: in the u.k., we've got the natwest group. they've done the majority of lending for the government schemes, and lloyd's is another bank that has been managing its margin. share prices are back to almost 2009 levels. two are more dependent on the u.k.. barclays does not have a big international trading business. they are relatively less. hsbc has plenty of its own woes in hong kong as well. tom: what i find interesting here is the ratios, the evaluations. i go to book value on the terminal. are we finally at a catalyst for combination? jonathan t: we are definitely seeing more. we saw these yesterday, but today, you've got unicredit may be being interested i the italian government about a 6% stake in the world's oldest bank. unicredit is quite rightly saying, wait a second, this is going to dilute our capital, so we need guarantees. that will be quite a difficult deal to transact. and thethat bad debt outlook continues to deteriorate , so what are you finding right now? does it point to the right number? they definitely didn't expect to lose as much money as they did in the last five years. lisa: shares has priced in a lot. some people would say they have christ and armageddon. hsbc shares have fallen the slowest in more than two decades. is this a sort of indication of further gains ahead, that basically they have priced in the absolute worst scenarios? or people are saying even the worst could come? if you are only making 3% return on capital because your expense base is too big, provision charges are rising, the cost of equities at some of these banks is a percent, 9%, 10%, which i could argue isn't cheap. so the market is saying we do not believe the returns on capital can get into the high single digits. so there's a lot in the share price. clearly m&a will help get rid of some of the cost base. part of it is that we have no idea if revenue can go back up in the next two, three or four years. jonathan, great to catch up with you this morning. important moment for the british economy. consolidation in europe as well. the outgoing ubs ceo sergio is -- you can it see the direction of travel in europe. consolidation, consolidation. feels a little bit more real in the last couple of weeks. tom: sterling giving it up in the last 10 minutes as well. all i can say is the valuations are silly. i go back to that one headline you mentioned, which is the vision of the prime minister and his medical officials out to march of 2021. i don't think the united states has that vision yet. jonathan f: we will get to the price action, have a look at an intraday chart of the stoxx 600. we roll over on the european equity benchmark coming out positive just 0.3% for european equities. what got battered in yesterday's session and stayed down? travel stocks. it was ugly for travel stocks across the continent. i think investors seeing further restrictions on economic activity, that is probably not good news for the travel sector. tom: again, reforming into march of 2021. that is into q2 of next year. we haven't done that work. jonathan: tom, if we are in march 2020 and we are set here talking about april, may, june, can you imagine march 2021? that was not part of the conversation. tom: no it was not. jonathan: from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i'm not going to say there's a bubble forming. i'm going to say there's a potential for one to form. >> we could be sowing the seeds of another bubble now. >> we have really moved into a new era. monetary policy the way we grew up with it, it doesn't really work anymore. >> monetary policy will do its part. it is not the primary driver of this recovery. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome all of you to a fractious new

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