His biggest Daily Advance in three months. Lets bring you the bloomberg first word news and the u. K. Government is telling the to work from home if possible telling the public to work from home with possible full to the Prime Ministers holding an emergency cobra meeting this morning for briefing parliament, thewill make a broadcast to public at 8 00 p. M. Local time. The billiondollar initiative to the polio vaccine around the world is moving to the next phase. Over 150 countries and regions including 64 higher income nations are taking part. Solutionis to find a to covid a little sooner than we were expecting. Pressure onto put Alexander Lukashenko are on pause. Ministers on monday failed to agree. On how to handle turkeys energy claims in them eastern eastern mediterranean. That is global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. We will have plenty more on the markets and we will go over some of the other news we are watching. Tom, good morning. Tom francine, good morning to you. It is wonderful to be here. What a day yesterday, and the recovery. We saw the big jump in stocks. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Futures negative six, dow futures 83. We are focused on the vix, which is out at the 30 level, and 28. 18 on theay, vix. The bond market, remarkable, that story just unchanging as we see in oil. West texas intermediate on demand, 39. 63, still under 40 a barrel. Francine, i will let you talk. Strong dollar, turkish lira is beyond difficult, from 7. 60 in a matter of hours after 7. 65. That is something to watch very carefully. Francine the u. K. Government is taking hold of the surgeon coronavirus cases, pubs and restaurants closing early, and the public is being urged to work from home again. Thank you for joining us. We were just hearing from the ,ater the labour party head saying that if we go back into lockdown, this will be a big failing from the government. It is a fine line, trying to find tune the restriction so that people do not get infected, but keeping the economy open. What will Boris Johnson actually be judged on . He is going to be judged probably first on whether schools can stay open, and second, on the overall cost to the economy. Actually, on both fronts it is not looking very good. We are hearing stories of children being sent home from schools because somebody in there bubble or peer tested positive, then having to work from home in this sort of hybrid schooling. It is not clear that these schools are going to be able to sustain this. If infections get worse through the winter. That is going to be one big test. And then obviously the economy, and we are seeing huge pressure on rishi sunak to extend the furlough. He is now providing more Business Loan support extension, but it is not clear that what theyre are doing is going to be these lockdowns impose a big hit to consumer confidence. Francine we dont have enough testing. It seems that there are huge delays. Is the government going to get a handle on that . Is the government once again ill prepared for this scenario . Righte i think that goes to the heart of the labour Party Message today, saying that this time it is on Boris Johnson. The first lockdown, people understood was due to the epidemiological situation and thought it was temporary. This time a lockdown a partial lockdown is coming partly because there has been such a failure in the testing system. Labs are not turning testing around enough. Could the government have anticipated this . Almost certainly it should have. It is going to be very hard for the government to inspire people to come back to work, allow shops and restaurants to operate as normal, and we are still not clear when that is going to be fixed. Boris johnson promised 500,000 test by the end of october, but he has made a lot of promises. Tom tom keene in new york. Not that i have ever experienced a last call in a bar, i wouldnt know what that means. But the thing to me that is remarkably illogical is the closing of pubs at 10 00 p. M. , my ability to get the virus at 8 00 p. M. Or at midnight. This is like cinderella. Why 10 00 p. M. . Behind 10 00logic p. M. Is the main vector for spreading the virus is young people, who spread out into the street. They come in late. But with the smallest impact on the bottom line at pubs and restaurants remember, they make most of their revenue from food sales at tables rather than the beer at the bar, so the government figures this way it can still let people out without having too much of an impact. The in the United States, Scientific Community is at odds with President Trump, to be kind. Withis the relationship the Scientific Community, that we talk to every day, with the government . Therese here is the other disturbing thing. The chief scientific advisor, the chief medical advisor, gave a press conference yesterday where they laid out the scientific evidence, but they did not lay out questions. They did not take questions. These are not political figures, but they did not take questions as well from journalists in the journalistsedia or with scientific backgrounds, so they are not that transparent about the data, the assumptions they are making, they are not subjecting them to full scrutiny, and i think thats where the government, if it is proved to be mistaken in its partial lockdown, if it needs to go to a full lockdown, and on many other things, is opening itself to even more criticism. Verythank you so much, much appreciate it, the Prime Minister speaking at 8 00 p. M. Their time. Francine lacqua time tonight. Coming up, it will not be across the atlantic, it will be here in the United States of america. This is important. Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell and the treasury secretary of the United States, steven mnuchin, they will testify to the House Financial Services committee. Look for that at 10 30 a. M. This morning. After the two malt yesterday, they recovery green on the screen for the nasdaq. On the close that is what we see right now. Red and green on the screen. Good morning. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. A couple things going on in the markets. First of all, we had basically media reports of what Boris Johnson will announce at the house of commons, but also later today at a National Address at 8 00 p. M. London time, further restrictions on pubs and restaurants. This is the impact on sterling. It had a bit of initial impact. Encouraging news out of europe, actually come out of the u. S. , and Technology Stocks are leading the gains in europe. Joining us now to talk about the markets is Luke Hickmore. Great to have you on surveillance. When you look at what the market is trying to figure out, how do you price in further restrictions, possible second lockdown, even if not a full lockdown like we had the first time. How difficult is it going to be for the u. K. Economy . You saw the market trying to react to this yesterday with a leader stocks getting hit pretty hard. Consumerhat was related areas of the market, it was a tough day, and some of that is kind of getting a way this morning. If we shut the pubs at 10 00 at night, they are still open for most of the day, and other restrictions that we are yet to see how bad it gets. Some of the stuff i have seen from the Scottish Government suggests it could actually be pretty harsh, but very short in terms of its time, which i think we could probably get over pretty quickly. So maybe this short, sharp hit to risk assets in the u. K. Could also be short, reflecting the short timescale with the lockdown. How much more pressure are we going to see on pound, given the restrictions of movement, given the closures of pubs at 10 00 p. M. , and given brexit . Brexit was blamed for a lot of it, but it may well be more to do with baileys comments this morning about negative Interest Rates. If they are bucking for negative Interest Rates in the short term, we could see the recovery poised over the next few weeks. Brexit headlines have been with us for four years. None of this could be a surprise, and yet the currency does seem to get the heavy lifting for it. Next6th of october, the important dates for brexit. We may get a little bit of a pausing Brexit Impact for the pound, and this focus on what the bank of england is going to do could overweight that. Tom thank you so much for being with us, tom keene in new york. I want to talk about tina. There is no alternative. The big pup that we saw in tech was led by apple and perhaps, just perhaps, folks, stepping in on share buybacks. If there is no alternative for the bullish case, is it nothing more than use of cash, and on any pullback we are going to see companies deployed to buy back shares . Really think it is difficult for investors to do much other than think about credit, think about equity. If you want any positive returns, what else can you do . It may be that companies dont backback shares, they buy debt. If they borrow in the spring this year to get their liquidity up because suddenly the economy stops, but actually they did not need as much, we are starting to see that happen. A study recently and some of the other big issue is around the world, they have been there, too. It may not just be equity. The benefits the buyback activity that we are going to see over the next four to five months. If the second wave approves if the second wave proves to be really bad, all but could be happening as well. Do you that is the case, fundamentally have a bullish stance at aberdeen standard . How do you adapt your portfolios to the great buyback . Luke from a credit perspective, we definitely have a bullish start for the moment. Alternative, really applies to investmentgrade credit. I see a lot of buyers around, orther Central Banks companies themselves. From an equity perspective, it remains difficult. Some of the big areas in the market outside tech are still struggling. Hang seng left few days have been a storyboard for that. Few daysafter the last have been a storyboard for that. But for credit, there is lots to do, lots to go for in the Banking Sector still. Will we get more stimulus from governments . What will that do to the markets . Luke i think we will. Bailey was implying it a little bit. The 10 billion he has done in buying credit so far, i think he will do that again. He has reached his limit. When we get into november as a way of awarding going there with the negative Interest Rates right now, i think he increases his buying program again in november. The ecb picks up the pace again as we have kind of gone into september, markets have reopened, and the fed again, part of this may be this average inflation targeting may well he having to step up even more Corporate Bond buying and the large amounts they have done already. Francine thank you so much, Luke Hickmore stays with us. Coming up wednesday, a conversation with the Federal Reserve vice chairman, richard clarida. York, 1 00 in new p. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. We are waiting for the speech by the Prime Minister tonight on a shutdown versus a lockdown. Francine, whats the difference between a shutdown down antilockdown . Francine a shut down antilockdown are pretty similar. This one is different because it sets restrictions on bars and pubs, closing at 10 00 p. M. To avoid those hours. That aer thing is lockdown would imply what we went through in april, may, june, which is a closure of schools, and this is one thing that the Prime Minister wants to remain open. He is trying to adapt the economy to minimize risk while keeping the economy going and schools open to let kids go to class. Tom what a mess. 1. 2807. Right now, Luke Hickmore with us. I want to talk about the great mystery out there. We have a huge bounce back, we are going to get a join normas a ginormous gdp number. How does the standard Revenue Growth in an adult way out to 2021 are you just throwing in the towel . Luke it is really tough. I cover the airline sector. You can imagine how hard that is. A finger in the air at the moment. You have to go off of your baseline economic forecast, where you see all sorts of different types of recoveries that are possible, all the lessons of the alphabet that seem to be thrown a bit. But your base case of a recovery building through 2020 you want to be thinking of revenues, may be sub 5 growth just to be on the cautious and safe side for more industries. If you go more than that, your surprise could come in pretty hard. Tom but to the airline business, good luck with that right now. Not to pick your brain off of a single sector, but the value of those frequent flyer mile programs is that going to be the salvation of the big airlines . Luke we have seen spirit come off the back of it, and we have seen delta come out and do another one, a massive new issue off of their frequent flyer programs, and it has helped them. One of the biggest programs, british airways, they have not done it at all. They have gone straight to equity. I think that is a better longerterm Balance Sheet revival approach than selling off what could actually be your family silver eventually. Familye talking about silver, what do you do with gold right now . Luke gold is really tied up with this whole tech story, tied up with peoples fear on inflation. If we see a further lockdown, you could actually see gold pop up a little bit, but im not sure it is going to last. Nalist. T an inflatio i just dont see that the conditions are ripe for unemployment or for inflation to grab hold. We might get a spike going into the spring, but it doesnt feel like we will have anything to worry about until 2021, 2022. In that case, why buy gold . Tom luke, is there any way we could convince her to share ways to bring back the gorgeousity of the 747 . Luke the queen of the skies. They are all parked at my home airport at shelton. It is sad to see. They are not bringing them back. They are too inefficient. They have been around a long time, they have depreciated to nothing. Unfortunately, tom, i think you may have had your last 747 flight. Tom killing me. Killing me. Francine, you are just killing me. Francine luke, please continue. You probably caught that last flight and there probably will be no more. Talk in general about whether you see opportunities in general. Na seems to have that seems to have gotten rid of covid19 in a more sustainable way, at least for now. Does it mean you can find opportunities if you play the Chinese Market . Luke i think the experience all of asia had has really paid off this time. They acted early, they acted hard, and i think there are more opportunities coming along, whether it is in china or whether it is more about how manufacturing will probably out of china, to kind of relate to what is going on with the u. S. China trade wars. But from a chinese bond market, there are growing opportunities. We just opened an office in beijing in the last few years, and where finding more opportunities for Credit Investors in the far east. And there is some really interesting stuff coming through, whether it is sovereign type stuff or pure credit, there are some good opportunities left out there, for a market that hasnt had the focus that the western developed and credit markets have seen over the last 10 years. We are seeing stuff out there for sure. Even Chinese Government bond market, it is still too much 20 basis points more than u. S. Treasury yields, probably one for the brave, the government controlled rates, shall we say. Much,ne thank you so Luke Hickmore. Join us later for the equality summit. If day conference. It will foster forwardlooking conversations, like influential leaders who are trying to pave the way to advance equality. The coverage begins later, ends tomorrow. This is bloomberg. Give you my world how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Nciene isika President Trump moving towards nominating Amy Coney Barrett to replace roof to replace ruth bader ginsburg. Of is a favorite antiabortion advocates who have been lobbying for her appointment. Barrett is currently a judge in chicago. The bank of england is not close to negativing negative Interest Rates despite proved ritika boe governor andrew ely it is going to take a little bit of time. But, it is important. [indiscernible] ritika bailey spoke in a webinar shortly after the governor urged people to work from home again, if possible. The federal aviation administrations engineers do not believe the 737 max changes are enough according to a statement filed by the union. They feel it should have to adhere to tougher standards on caulk cockpit alerts. Toy say it could still lead pilot confusion. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. , this iska gupta bloomberg. Tom long ago and far away, i was sitting in a chair in davos, switzerland talking to a bunch of family a bunch of handsy people on banking. There was an assumption that there would be mergers in europe and there would be bank combinations nation to nation. That hasnt happened. Us art news he joins Elisa Martinuzzi joins us. Book valueain wreck, stunningloomberg is a 2. 9 . These guys are lucky they are in business. How is t