Moves down again. Tom im looking for an entry point here. Purves ofael tallbacken make a separation of the equity activity we saw yesterday from bonds, and particularly from fx. Kit juckes said the same thing as well. This is very discrete to the equity markets yesterday. See it with the vix in almost two points some hour or so ago. Some improvement there. Jon i would agree with that. The japanese yen did nothing in the last 24 hours. Treasuries did nothing in the last 24 hours. The question we have to ask, is it just an equity event, or does it raise really serious questions about folio construction from here on . Lisa especially given the fact that people are talking about the death of the 60 40 portfolio. What will act as a hedge if you get a risk off move . This was a nero selloff just as the rally was a narrow rally, as there seems to be a blowing off afteram, a reevaluation things got pretty heady given the is more backdrop of Economic Data we are seeing. Jonathan it is payrolls friday. The estimates as wide as ever. They range from 2. 4 million to 100,000. I think you can drive a big, fat truck through that range. Tom im going to go to the Economic Policy institute yesterday. Diane swonk quoted it the moment it came out. Youve got to take the claims yesterday and throw on top of it depended it kind of claims that are out there, and then youve got the furlough to permanently off dynamic as well. , as we saidummary while you were on sabbatical. The Unemployment Rate is near 14 . Jonathan ive got a strong one today as well, tom. Im going to keep that one handy. The data 87 minutes away. Center, 8 30nd a. M. What tom was talking about, very much important, the transference to a more permanent edger for these layoffs. Bidenp. M. , Vice President speaking about the economy in delaware. Interesting to see what his plan would be to revise the economy should he become president following the november elections. Tomorrow, the 140 sixth running of the kentucky derby. It has been delayed since may. It will not have the tradition of people in the stands wearing hats and wearing mint juleps. Nonetheless, perhaps a little bit of normalcy. Jonathan something to tilt forward to something to look forward to. Equity futures rolling over to so little bit in the last hour. Nasdaq futures where the story is. Once again, the negative followthrough from the close yesterday. Down another 0. 8 . Tom i thought you did a great job with this, and our team late in the afternoon did a good job with this, this language of crashed, rout, plunged, baloney. That is not a rout. That is just a pullback. You can see it on the bloomberg when you look at the standard deviations. Jonathan in the context of a massive rally through much of the last six months, i would agree with you. S p futures right now positive just about 0. 1 . Looking ahead to payrolls friday, those dropping at 8 30 eastern time, joining us now is priya miserable, priya securities head of u. S. Rates strategy. In the last 24 hours, not a lot. What is your response to that . Premarket movehe as sort of a pullback, as you put it. A correction. Thatd such a big runup wasnt driven by any data. If you get a week payrolls report, a pickup in covid infections, if election uncertainty starts to weigh on investors, i think treasuries are going to be the safe haven asset of choice. But for yesterday, it wasnt driven by any fundamental fact, which is why treasuries didnt move. The treasury market is rising insignificant trading. Theres a lot of supply coming down the pike. But beyond that, the risk complex is going to impact treasuries. Tom i look at where we are in yields and link it to an economic slowdown. Are you calling for an economic slowdown with these low yields . Priya i think the market is pricing in the spread easing, which is why i think some of the assets seem to imply that there is not much of a slowdown. With some of the data we are looking at, the highfrequency data is stalling. I am shocked that we dont have fiscal stimulus. I am increasingly becoming skeptical that we get that deal done. And weont get the deal see the highfrequency data slow down, i think things are going to slow down the economy. We are not calling for recession. We are calling for a slow down which probably prompts some fiscal easing. We dont have a hike for years. Tom i want to dovetail in this labor economy, which some people are seeing if we dont get stimulus in your world of full faith and credit. Are you resigned full faith and credit. Are you resigned to a permanent low yield . ,riya with the fed emboldened with the historic change in strategy where the fed is actually looking to overshoot inflation, not just get to target, that would argue that the front end stays anchored for a very long time. So i would tell you yes, it is low for a very long time. When you look at the 10 year, supply does matter. The fed is doing enough qe. They are extending the average security of their buying. I think they do stay below 1 for all of next year and perhaps any 2022. But without qe, we could see the longing of higher. Lets go back to what lisa lets go back to what you were talking about with the 60 40 portfolio. That seems to have been called into question given the magnitude of the rally really perils thats really pales in comparison to previous years because there isnt that much lower for yields to fall. How much is this an offset to treasury volatility, or do people really have to go somewhere else if they want to offset what could potentially be ahead . Priya i think they have to move to the long end of the curve. Previously, the twoyear or the fiveyear gave you that hedge protection. Now you may have to move to the 30 year, which is dangerous. You are taking significantly more duration risk. But is that how we are going to earn return in a low equilibrium, real Interest Rate environment . Returns,to earn those in order to hedge, you have to take more risk, so you move to the 30 year. Theres a lot of room there, more than 100 basis points of decline potential there is a hedge. But you have to move out the curve. You have to take more credit risk, which is why it spreads have been doing as well. You get that hedge for taking more risk. Jonathan i appreciate that in 2020 that a week is a long time, but just a week ago, many people were talking about inflation overshooting, treasury yields going higher because of what chairman powell said the day before. Here we are talking about low yields forever again. Tolerate they will higher inflation. They havent said we will look to engineer it. There is a key difference, what is it . Fed actuallyw york said that in overshoot is desired. They want that flex ability. They dont want inflation to get to high above the target. Ultimately they do believe in the phillips curve, but i think it is a massive change. I didnt understand the reaction, frankly. It was viewed as a hawkish reaction in the treasury market. It was absolutely not a hawkish reaction. It was a set up to easing. That is why the market is coming back this week. T is actually desired they actually have downgraded the importance, so as important , i thinkls friday is that is a 2015 story, not the next tightening cycle story. When is inflation actually above target . Theres no structured damage. Are we fully recovered from covid . Fantastic to catch up with you, as always. Of tdmisra there securities on this payrolls friday. Any other month, any other year, we would talk about what it means for monetary policy. That is not the first question on anyones lips anymore. They will be asking what it means for fiscal policy. The truth is, im not sure it means anything right now for fiscal policy whatsoever. Maybe the market moves of the last 24 hours, if we carry on getting a market move, maybe that is what we need to get people to wake up in washington, d. C. To do a whole lot more. Tom to me its its a new timeline. You are going to talk to Lawrence Kudlow about this as well. We will get a new set of data, further along from the catastrophe of march and april, and maybe it sets us up with a new glide path. Particularly talking to Catherine Mann in the last hour, it is a glide path that could be a lot grimmer than what we perceive right now. Jonathan at the moment though, got to separate two issues, direction and the speed at which we travel. The direction is positive. The pace has slowed down. But i just wonder if people down in washington, particularly as administration, are comfortable that this could continue for it was only a month ago that we were talking about the prospect of negative rents on payrolls, and the data has been positive. Tom theres no question they are comfortable. That is absolutely true. Jonathan more still to come on bloomberg surveillance, with equity futures turning negative on the s p 500. This is bloomberg surveillance. Karina with the first word news, im karina mitchell. We are learning more about russias coronavirus vaccine. Peerreviewed data has been published in the british medical journal. Preliminary results found that the vaccine produced an antibody response within all participants than 21 days and there were no adverse effects. Opposition to the study includes its relatively small size and response time. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker nancy pelosi are working to avoid a Government Shutdown were before the election. They wont let the stalemate over virus relief legislation hold up a stopgap spending bill. That paves the way for the government to start operations at the start of the new fiscal year. The suspect in the shooting of a rightwing activists in portland has been killed. Federal Authorities Say they were trying to take him into custody when officers shot him. He was a vocal supporter of the farleft antifa movement. President trump has denied a magazine account that he disparaged americas war dead as losers. According to the atlantic, the president tried to get out of a visit to the graves of soldiers of world war i in france, saying, why would i go to a cemetery filled with losers he calls with losers . He calls the reported total lie. The monthly job report is out at 8 30 this morning. Economists predict the jobless rate will drop below 10 for the First Time Since march. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Valuations, particularly in the technology landscape, have gotten to pretty extreme their levels. So i think it is not a surprise. Not like uncertainty, and we have an election in 60 days. It is a toss up on who is going to be the next president. Jonathan bill ackman of Pershing Square on how markets dont like it. Well, markets have been ok with attentive uncertainty over the past five months. Thats for sure. Equity futures are declining, down on the s p down on the p, nasdaq 1. 2 . Tom real instability in the markets here, which gives us time to focus on what. Ron washington focus on washington. Yesterday evening, Jeffrey Goldberg of the atlantic dropped a bombshell on President Trump. The president so angry he immediately responded, giving us perspective on the president in the fields of france. Of jeffreye goldberg, widely esteemed by all, is four people with firsthand knowledge. Who could those four people be . Kevin the president has hit back against this. This is a report that came out comments fromo unnamed sources. I will leave it to his reporting. From a political standpoint, it gives both of the campaigns an opportunity to talk about how they would handle Veterans Affairs issues, and i think you immediately saw the president s Reelection Campaign jump into do that. I would anticipate that the Biden Campaign would dry contrast in terms of how they would treat medical care for ideological opposition. Tom this is a devout medical care. This is about a wheatfield in france. Who wentfter mr. Bush, down in a plane at midway. What will be the effect on his military audience . Kevin theres no question the president has public made comments separating himself from bush world, as well as from mccain world. That has been well out there for some time. In terms of what the effect is going to be, you saw the effect at the virtual Democratic National convention, when you had former secretary of state andn powell coming out endorsing joe biden. A key question here, not to diminish the importance of the story, but what does it change . I imagine for many people, if you already decided you dont want to vote for the president , that is it. You havent changed your mind. If you have already decided that you support the president , i dont think this story changes their view. I am just stuck with the same question. What does it change . Kevin kevin i think this cycle is really about virtual amplification. , the left on online and social Media Channels will ample if i this, and the right, when there is an opportunity to do so against ayden, will do so as well. But in terms of swing voters, this is not the issue. One of the main issues that this is going to come down to is the crucial last week of october, when youve got vaccination approval, potential vaccination rollout, thirdquarter gdp on october 29, and then of course the debates. When you speak to anyone, these and the drip of Economic Data and medical data that will be coming in that time is going to be so. Finally, just as another point, washington, d. C. , typically dead in election year, is right in the middle of this fiscal fight. Not only do they have to deal minimum1 trillion plus economic package, or a skinny deal if leader mcconnell gets his way, but they also have to deal with continuing resolutions to keep the government open. Yesterday, Speaker Pelosi and secretary mnuchin saying they dont want a Government Shutdown, but at the end of the is, in an election year, it so incredibly unknown if that is actually going to be a reality. Lisa im glad you went to the fiscal plan that is or is not in works down in washington and the amplification of the echo chamber. What is Popular Support like for an additional around a fiscal support, especially as we hear strategists come on and say perhaps it is not needed. Perhaps the Economic Data is better than expected. Kevin anything that would help Small Business is an opportunity for congress, for rankandfile members to say that they were delivering a win not to wall street or investors or big is this, but for main street or business, but for main street. When i talked to republicans and democrats, i am trying to figure out precisely whether they are going to be able to lengthy continuing realism to lump the continuing resolution as a deal. It would offer a very final, narrow path to have some type of fiscal stimulus ahead of election day, but i think you are right to point out in the conversations down here, yesterday i spoke with two lawmakers starting to recalibrate whether or not they actually are going to get to even a skinny deal by election day. It is looking like thanksgiving and the holiday will be a massively porton time for fiscal stimulus massively important time for fiscal stimulus. Jonathan what is the last time they got round a table and actually had talks about this . Kevin several weeks ago. It is like a oneoff type of conversation. Several weeks ago. There just doesnt appear to be an actual reality right now that they feel that they need to do this, and is a stalemate. It is a stare down. Jonathan Kevin Cirilli down in washington, d. C. Great to catch up with you, sir. There havent been real talks for weeks, and i dont know what breaks that stalemate ahead of the election at this point. Tom it may be at 8 30 this morning. It could be a yawner. It could be whats expected. Is ive got to believe it overcome by events, and that hasnt happened yet. Jonathan but does it come from the economy or from the market . The only thing thats changed for me in the last several months if the market is carrying on rallying. They seem to be covered up a where the market is. They should be uncomfortable with where the economy is. Take the story in europe right now. Furlough programs all need to be expended all need to be extended. Everyone is getting around the idea they need to do a whole lot more. Tom i dont know if the partition is there in the united kingdom, but here, the republicans are looking at the market as a generalization, and the democrats are looking at aggregate growth and the rest, particularly the labor economy. We will be a lot smarter at 8 30 this morning, one hour and five minutes away. Jonathan heres the price action ahead of that. Equity futures rolling over on the 500. Slightly negative very briefly. Coming up on the program, the payrolls report and the breakdown. A preview with michelle meyer, bank of america head of u. S. Economics. From london and new york, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. The big events are back. Xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Jonathan 60 minutes away from the payrolls report in america. From london and new york, good morning to you all. Lets get some price action after the rout in the last 24 hours. Nasdaq futures down by 1. 2 . On the s p 500, equity futures slightly negative. Going into that payrolls print, 1. 1851. Ar snooze, the 10 year yield, too, 0. 64 . The range, as we set all morning, is wide. Tom i havent even looked at the numbers, and that is where i usually do look at the numbers, but to me, it has just got ambiguity all over it. Right now we are going to try to clear the air of the mystery. Michelle meyer with us of bank of america securities. A very Different Community then brookline to the south. That describes most of america. How do we do the math of economics, the math of this job report with this massive separation we observe in america in job inequality . It obviously complicates things, and it is import to keep that in mind when you look at these aggregate numbers. Particularly that is the case today. This recovery is an appropriate way to classify the things we are seeing. Theres a bifurcation and how people are faring during this time, where folks that are more in industries where they have remote options to work remotely, who are not as services based, have fared better, have kept jobs a bit better, where those in Services Industries such as restaurants, travel, leisure, it has been a lot harder. Tom you are may be best qualified in this then anyone weve talked to, and that is linking the real estate boom with the misery that is out there. How do you juxtapose a real estate boom with what lisa, jon and i are observing every day . Michelle i think it goes back to this unevenness. Think about who the prospective homebuyer is. The national average, Median Income for a homebuyer is just over 100,000. That is well over Median Income for the population, certainly where you are seeing most of the job losses. I think part of it is simply the fact that Interest Rates are incredibly low, and that is changing the affordability picture. Then we have pandemic related relocation, which has prompted a lot of people to rethink where they want to live, how they went to live, especially with this more virtual work. That has led to this kind of big shift all at once in terms of those decisions. Clearly housing has benefited area will we continue to see this expansion for housing Going Forward . No, but the fundamentals are strong. Jonathan some of the fiscal effort expired at the end of july. I am wondering if you are seeing any of that show up in the august data yet. Michelle it is hard to say because we dont have very much data yet for august. We are obviously going to learn more today in the jobs report. I think some of the highfrequency data shows indications of stress and Consumer Confidence softens a bit into early august. But it takes time because we have a savings rate of 17 . So theres some buffer from the drop in unemployment insurance, even for the population that typically has budget constraints. The longer this goes on, the more problematic it will get, especially if we are in an environment where job rugs is indeed slow where job growth is indeed slowing. Jonathan a month ago we were talking about the prospect of a negative print on the payrolls report. Overwhelmingly, the consensus on wall street was that some and, we would see a deceleration in the recovery. Have you seen the slow down in the pace of the recovery in the way you anticipated . Michelle i think we are seeing a slowdown, and i think we will see further evidence of that today. Terms of the it in Regional Manufacturing surveys have moderated. Some of the Consumer Spending numbers. Ofres signs of selling out economic activity. The question is, is that just the Natural Forces ticking forward because we are past the easy growth for you have that natural bounce, and it just gets harder at this stage . Or do you see some fullback some pullback in fiscal support and the economy is more fragile . We will be able to enter that furthering the month of august. Probably still a bit early to have a full answer to that question. A number of investment strategists have come on the show and said that perhaps another round of fiscal support isnt as necessary as they had previously thought. Do you agree . Michelle i dont because i dont think we have enough data to prove that. We are just now getting the data for august, and we also need to see the data for Early September because it takes some time to realize the impact of the changes on the economy. So i dont think we can draw conclusions yet by any means. If we take a step back and say, ok, you have all of this money pouring in for a population that is very likely to spend, and that money went away, it is not replaced quickly with labor income picking up. Zoomable he it is going to have an impact. It is a question of what is the right balance, the right amount of fiscal stimulus. Lisa we are also seeing a number of job cuts announced by the biggest companies, the likes of everything from cotton no to American Airlines and united. To toms point about the permanency of job losses at this point, how much would an additional round of fiscal support do anything about that . Or are we really looking at a permanent alice rate of nearly permanentlong time jobless rate of nearly 10 for a long time . Michelle the fact that people are going to be engaging in social distancing, they are not going to be behaving the way they did prior, unless we get a vaccine area theres no degree of fiscal stimulus that can solve that. But fiscal stimulus can create a nice jolt to the economy, where those individuals that would otherwise be very sensitive to those industries have the ability to spend and can push that money into other parts of the economy, so fiscal stimulus this bandaide for the economy so that we can buy enough time to heal those other industries, too. Tom let me go to wages, which seems to be important. What does the maryland study of the elasticity of wages right now, and i dont mean for the jobless reports today, but in three months, etc. , what are you looking for a wage . Michelle i think it is very simple. When you have an incredibly high Unemployment Rate, wage growth is going to be constrained. We saw it clearly after the great financial axis, and it took quite a while for wage growth to move up after that initial shock, even with the unlimited rate would falling at Unemployment Rate was falling the Unemployment Rate was falling. Thats why i go back to this debate over inflation. Theres a lot of us that want to believe in the inflation story because we have fiscal stimulus, we have the feds commitment. But at the end of the day, the unlimit rate that is extremely high downward pressure in wages, price pressures are also going to be constrained. Todayan this jobs report be a catalyst for true stimulus in washington . Michelle possibly. It is very clear that folks in washington, politicians in general are very focused on the unlimit rate, the Unemployment Rate, job creation that matters to the average person out there. To the extent that the numbers disappoint, that can help spur greater action, and digitally the adverse is true, too. A very strong report could send the signal that the economy is ok, so i think the uncertainty matters quite a lot in terms of another round of stimulus. Jonathan great to catch up, as always. Michelle meyer there of bank of america securities. A couple of hours later, we will catch up with larry kudlow from the white house. Tom what are you going to ask him . I think this is serious. They clearly want a stimulus at 1600 pennsylvania avenue come of it is the basic idea that they stimulus,ittybitty and Speaker Pelosi wants more enormous . Jonathan they wanted to be targeted. The question for larry kudlow today is whether he thinks this economy is selfsustaining. That would imply that they dont think they need a big fiscal package anytime soon. Tom hes the one guy left talking of a vshaped recovery. Jonathan i would agree with that, but when someone makes a Statement Like that, if they believe weve got a vshaped recovery, they also believe you dont need the fiscal stimulus. When they start to worry about the recovery, then you get a decent idea that theres going to be a policy effort to follow. London, lisao in abramowicz and tom keene. We welcome all of you on london radio, where jon has a sterling show later in the day. Jon, National Fish and chip day. What i find fascinating, not that i know the map of the midlands, is that there is this great divide with what you call chips or we call french fries. Do you put on them catch up or mushy peas, or cheese or pepper or mayonnaise . Do when he gets the chips in front of them . Jonathan first off, they are not fries, they are a little bit fatter, so we call them chips. Back in the day, you would get some curry sauce and chips and put catch up and mail on those chips ash and mayo put ketchup and mayo on this chips. I would say if youre going to get some thing now, just a little but of salt and vinegar. Maybe dont go for cod because they dont serve cod that much anymore. Go with a nice chicken pie. I think you would do really well in a fish and chips shop. Come to london and i will treat you will or will i will treat you really well. You know thats not what it is. Lets get some price action ahead of payrolls friday. 8 30 east income of the payrolls report just around the corner. Equity futures down 0. 3 on the s p 500. In the fx market, eurodollar not doing much at all, 1. 1844. The fish and chips shops i used to go to to have a Security Guard at the front door. From london and new york, good morning. This is bloomberg. Ritika karina theres an informal agreement to avoid a Government Shutdown at the end of the month. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker nancy pelosi will work to keep the government from closing right before the election. That reduces the chance of turmoil at the end of this month. Meanwhile, joe biden drew explicit contrast with President Trump on his trip to kenosha, wisconsin. The democratic president ial candidate spoke with jacob blake , i black man shot in the back by police, and promised sweeping changes to fight racism if elected. The president has focused on the laredo the rioting and the looting that has sometimes overshadowed a protest. Pressure is mounting on Germanys Angela Merkel to drop 2pport for the Nord Stream Oil Pipeline from russia. Merkel is no longer repeating that itious stance should be treated separately. The government in france could extend the Furlough Program created to protect jobs during the pandemic. That is according to the economy minister bruno le maire. They are willing to spend up to 119 billion dollars in the latest stimulus plan. He says the French Economy could perform better this year than forecast. American airlines is getting an unexpected left at a time when it could use one. Under 30 passengers has emerged as a resource of demand for flights, and most of americas seats are being filled by passengers traveling on barebones, basic economy fares. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. If someone tries to prematurely declare victory in the president ial election or any others before there is a consensus, we are going to add a context or a label to that post, saying there isnt an official result on the selection, and directing on this election, and directing people to the voting sit there where they have a official results among and. Zuckerberg, the facebook ceo. I think someone anticipates some trouble coming in november. A lot of focus will be on Mark Zuckerberg and next couple of months. Tom an issue with the attorney general going on. That is breaking news. We will have more of that. Right now, claudia sahm joins us, at the Washington Center for equitable growth, their director of macroEconomic Policy. This is a really important conversation if you are worried. I lump claudia sahm in with Carmen Reinhart and vincent reinhart, with my essay of the summer on pandemic suppression. Do you agree with the reinharts that we are on the edge of a pandemic depression . Claudia yes, it is absolutely serious the Economic Conditions we are facing right now. Claudia, you are allowed to have longer answers. It is a simulcast. But what is the difference between a recession and a depression . Claudia at this point, i wouldnt worry so much about the words. I am absolutely frightened at the fact that really has expired , particularly relief that was going to the unemployed and to Small Businesses. It doesnt matter what we call it. We are seeing an income crisis. We are seeing in action from washington, d. C. We cant afford to do this again. It will be worse than, say it would be worse than, say, the great recession. We are seeing levels that havent been seen since the great depression. We can do this again. Consumerve seen spending continued to remain strong. How do you reconcile this . Claudia person or personal income in july, 5 of it was due to the extra 600 that was going to unemployed workers. I dont have to be a forecaster for more than a decade to know if you have that kind of a drop that has happened in august, it is serious for those families that have already been hit hard, and it is serious for the entire economy. We do not have enough momentum to make up for this relief expiring. Jonathan a lot of people lisa a lot of people would agree with you, and other people are saying, how do we know . Michelle meyer of bank of america saying it is too soon to decide whether we are going to get this continued grind towards a better economy, or whether it is going to dip again if we dont get another round of fiscal support. Where are you coming at this, saying the evidence is in, and things will otherwise deteriorate . Claudia i have seen no compelling argument about why we should not act right now. Arecost of doing too little going to cost us for decades. We are seeing the haves and the havenots split apart from each other. We are on track for a very serious rise and in an, and that is to the detriment in inequality, and that is to the detriment of the whole economy. Tom one thing we know for certain is the way you get withed in this country, the unique populism of President Trump perhaps the exception, is you move to the center. What will be the effect of liberal economic and labor policy if Vice President biden must move to the center to be elected . Claudia what im afraid is that when we come back in january, regardless of whos in the white house and in congress, we are going to have such a serious Economic Disaster to clean up that the center is going to look like something we cant even imagine today. Tom expand on that. What do you mean by that . Claudia we are going to have a moment where we will need a jobs program. We are going to need to spend more money in january then we need to spend now in september. The cost of waitandsee is too high. Tom but claudia, this is really important. Maybe its 1 trillion, maybe its 2 trillion. Are you advocating a federal response of 3 trillion, 4 trillion, or 5 trillion . Claudia ive been saying for months that we should have a multitrillion dollar response. Frankly i would like to see 6 trillion. I cant imagine what is holding us back. The borrowing cost is not a problem right now. If we dont go all in on this, we will have a massive amount of damage. I dont expect to get 6 trillion. 2 trillion within the heroes act feels like the absolute lower bound, and i am so disappointed, i dont expect to see that either. Lisa theres also inequality in age. People ages 16 to 25 are looking at an Unemployment Rate of nearly 20 right now. What do you think is necessary to bring that down, given that so many of the jobs for that age cohort tend to be on the interest Level Services have gotten decimated . Claudia the Service Sector is an absolute crisis. I know theres been a lot of talk about manufacturing coming back, construction, and consumer durables. These are areas that have largely come back to where we were early in the year. They are in an amazingly deep hole. Those are a lot of the interest the entrylevel jobs. They are not good jobs. We need to do better than january. But we are so far down the whole. We saw the millennials in the great recession, they came out on the job market, and they were slammed. It was not until this year they were making it back. We are destroying another young generation of adults. We can do this. Jonathan great to catch up with you. Claudia sahm of the Washington Center for equitable growth, as we anticipate payroll numbers coming out in about 35 minutes. Tom keene bringing up fish and chips of annette. I can tell you the chips at the net. I can tell you the average price of fish and chips in london is 3. 50 pounds. So theres about 14 quid between you and i. Tom what is a quit, like a pound a quid, like a pound . Jonathan its a pound, well done. You know all of this. I know you do. [laughter] back,f you go far millies is in the far back, and the fish and chips are excellent. Lisa we are 30 minutes away from a jobs report. Just throwing that out there. [laughter] tom we are interested in millies. Lisa thank you for this. Jonathan dont worry, lisa. Ill try to keep it together. Is justolls report around the corner. Thats fish and chips for you, tom. I dont spend that kind of cash money. In the bond market, treasury yields unchanged at 0. 64 . Live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio, from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance on this payrolls friday. Give you my world how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. I think theres honestly much more rationality happening in the market when we look beneath the surface. At the end of a melt up, you should expect some rack down. Fiscal stimulus would obviously be nice to have. I dont think it is a need to have. The fed needs help. The fed needs a partner, and the partner is fiscal policy. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom the urgency of those voices on this most historic day for labor economics. Jonathan ferro in london